Michiel van Eupen,

Alterra Wageningen University

Technical & Networking Session 1.1 Supporting landscape scale planning for REDD+;

How useful are land use change models?

UNEP, WCMC, IIASA, Warsaw, 16 November 2013

Land Use Change Modelling

in the ROBIN project;

a multi-scale idea

Climate Change

Mitigation

Biodiversity

What is ROBIN?

Land Use Change

Continental

Main Objective:

further use by vegetation

models like LPJm /JULES

+ ESS modelling at

continental scale

Entire South- + Meso-America:

1km scale resolution, limited

amount of land use classes

equal in each country

Based on available (world )

datasets

Focussing on major (generic) socio-economic pathways+ knowledge

Using CLUE-s land use change

model

Regional (=landscape?)

Main Objective:

regional policy evaluation

Finding relevant thresholds at regional scale policies

to see to what level up- and

downscaling is relevant

Different regional scales: Amazone,

country (Mexico), detailed case stud.

extended land use classes,

regionally specific

Using regional, specific data

Specific regional policy scenarios

Using CLUE –s/Dinamica & Participative

modelling tools

Role of Land Use Modelling in

ROBIN

Continental: CLUE model structure

CLUE will provide: • yearly output maps of

future land use and hence, ageing

),0N(~, 2εXβY

Bolivia: CLUE-Continental 2005

Bolivia: CLUE-Continental 2005

QUICKScan participatory approach

for creating maps + rules

),0N(~, 2εXβY

Workflow combining Maps & Rules

Output Map

Map and compare alternatives

Statistics

per adm.unit Trace back to

Rules used

Rules used

QUICKScan changes land cover Pantanal

Effects of floodings due to

upstream erosion & climate conditions

CLUE approach is ‘needed’ generic method to translate

demands/changes in to patterns. link with existing models

etc.

On the land scape scale models like CLUE needs to be linked to the policy + planning issues not easy

Policies are made by people (policy makers....not modellers):

“Useful for who?” The Policy maker or the scientist?

The policymaker needs to TRUST the model output.

Model s should be transparent enough to judge the effect of

the assumptions

How useful are land use change

models on the land scape scale?”

Focus on policy development

current limiting factors land-use planning?