Land in: Other Uses In Transition In Switchgrass

1

Land in:Other UsesIn Transition

In Switchgrass

Crop LifetimeNet SG Addition

Of Acres

Acres inSwitchgrass

Yield from Ag R&DAve Yield in Established Land

FeedstockPrice

FeedstockPrice

OverallYield/Acre

Total BiomassProduction

State-of-the-artYield/Acre

Land Established in SGLand Converting to SG

Land Reverting

Total ResidueCollected

Land Allocation

Land Use

Ag R&D andYield

Biomass Production

Ag & Forest Residue Collect

DeliveredFeedstock Cost

Feedstock Price

Influx, Turnover& Retrofit

Fleet Size &Vehicle Efficiency

FuelConsumption

FeedstockPrice

Individual PlantFeedstock Demand**

Feedstock Price**

Total Biomass Production& Residue Collection**

Demand for Feedstock**

Potential EtOHDemand fromFuel Usage**

Vehicle InfluxTime to RetirementRetrofitting Logic

Fleet SizeAverage Vehicle Efficiency

RetiringTotal Fleet SizeFleet A & B Size

IncreaseIn Ag Output**

2

Agricultural & Forest Residue Collection

Calculates the total Agricultural and Forest Residues available at different

feedstock prices Total Biomass Production

Feedstock Price

Maximum Ag Yield Improvement = 25%

Ag Residue Linear Annual Growth Rate = 1%

Ag &

Forest R

esidue Collection – 1

3



feedstock pricesForest Residue Availability is fixed and is only a

function of offer price

Forest Residue Collected (MM

ton/yr)

Feedstock Price

Feedstock Price

Total Biomass Production



Ag &

Forest R


4



feedstock pricesForest Residue Availability is fixed and is only a

function of offer price

Total Biomass Production

Forest Residue Collected (MM

ton/yr)

Ag Residue Collected

(MM ton/yr)

Feedstock Price Feedstock Price

Feedstock Price



Ag &

Forest R


Ag Residue Availability is a function of offer price with 1% linear growth rate up to 25%

growth from the 2005 quantity.

5

Ag Supply Multiplier

Ag Residue Supply Growth Rate

Niminal Linear Growth

Rate Ag Residues

feedstock price ~

Year2005 Ag Residue Collected

Million Tons per Year

Ag Residue Collected

Million Tons Per Year

~

Forest Residue Collected

Million Tons per Year

Total Residue Collected

Milltion Tons per Year

Max Yield Improv ement

Agricultural and Forest Residue Collection

Agricultural & Forest Residue CollectionA

g & F

orest Residue C

ollection – 4 Actual STELLA

Module Flowsheet

6

Established

in SwitchGrass

crop lifetime

In Other

Uses In

Transition

conv erting

to SGmaturing

rev erting

maturation time

net SG addition of acres

Land Use High Level Structure: Acres in: "other" uses, transition, switchgrass

Crop Lifetime

Net SG Addition of Acres

Land Use

Land in:

Other Uses

In Transition

In Switchgrass

Land Established in SG Land Converting to SG Land Reverting

Calculates the amount of land that is being used for switchgrass

production (acres)

Two land types:

• Prime

• Marginal

Switchgrass Maturation Time

Land Use - 5

7

Established

in SwitchGrass

crop lifetime

In Other

Uses In

Transition

conv erting

to SGmaturing

rev erting

maturation time



Land Use


production (acres)

Crop Lifetime is calculated as a function of the economics of switchgrass compared to non-switchgrass land use as well as current

switchgrass yields

Crop Lifetime


Land in:

Other Uses

In Transition

In Switchgrass


Impact of SG economics on

Lifetime

Revenue ($/acre) ratio for established land


Land Use - 6

8

Established

in SwitchGrass

crop lifetime

In Other

Uses In

Transition

conv erting

to SGmaturing

rev erting

maturation time



Land Use

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2 2.25 2.5 2.75 3

SG revenue per acre relative to other usesN

et

% G

row

th i

n S

G l

an

d p

er

year


production (acres)

Addition of SG acres is also a function of the net revenue for switchgrass vs. other

uses.

Crop Lifetime


Land in:

Other Uses

In Transition

In Switchgrass



Land Use - 7

9

Land Allocation

The outcomes from this module are:

• Whether to plant land in switchgrass or other uses.

• Calculates the crop lifetime.

• Total Acres in Switchgrass

Acres in Switchgrass

Switchgrass Yield (ton/acre)

Feedstock Price

Crop Lifetime

Net addition of Switchgrass

Switchgrass Production (MM Acres)

The land owner decides whether to plant acres in switchgrass or other uses depending on the revenue earned per acre per crop.

$/acre Switchgrass vs. $/acre in other uses

Nominal SG Crop Lifetime

SG Maturation Time

Export Scenario

Constant SG Yield Option

Land Allocation -1

10

Land Allocation





The expected revenue for land in switchgrass is a product of the payment to the farmer ($/ton) and the yield (tons/acre)

Crop Lifetime





Feedstock Price


SG Maturation Time


Land Allocation -2

11

Land Allocation





The value of land in other uses is a function of the demand for product. More land in switchgrass will drive the price for product from land in

other uses higher due to land constraint issues. $0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

0 3 6 9 12 15

% of land in SG

Reven

ue (

$/a

cre

) o

f la

nd

no

t in

SG

Use

Flat Export Scenario (Prime Land) USDA Off Flat Export Scenario (Marginal Land) USDA Off

USDA Scenario (Prime Land) USDA On USDA Scenario (Marginal Land) USDA On

Crop Lifetime





Feedstock Price


SG Maturation Time


Land Allocation -3

12

Land Allocation

crop lif etime

YPA from ag R&D

expected y pa

SG rev per acre

rel to other uses

actual acres

in sg millions

f ull y eild weighting f actor

f eedstock rev per ton to f armer

feedstock price

Expected rev per acre SG

basis f or conv ersion rateRev Per Acre

Other Uses USDA Scenario

Total LandIn

Transition

Established

in SwitchGrass

PCT in Other Uses

PCT in Transition

PCT Established

Switchgrass

~

NETpct growth in SG land per y r


~

impact of SC econ

on lif etime

max rev per acre

new sg or other use

nominal crop lif etime

avg YPA est landrev per acre est land

rev per acre ratio

f or established land

In Other

Uses

multiplier for early

SG establishment

maturation time

expected time in sg

xition y ield weighting f actor

Total Actual Million

Acres in SG

Const Feedstock Y ield Scenario

Assumed ConstYPA

USDA Export

ScenarioRev Per Acre

Other Uses Flat Export Scenario

Rev Per Acre

Other UsesLand growth Gain

Land Allocation Logic

Land Allocation -4

Actual STELLA Module Flowsheet

13

Agricultural R&D and Yield

The Yield from R&D is a function of the Investment made into the R&D

program.

Ag R&D Investment (MM$/yr) Switchgrass Yield from R&D

BSM has a maximum effective Ag R&D of 10-MM$/yr. Any amount over that will have no effect on R&D yields.

Fraction of Max YPA growth

Obtained

Ag Investment relative to Max

Ag R&D Investment (MM$/yr)

Year

R&D Yield Growth is analogous to historical corn yields; exponential for a time

period, then slowing to a linear growth rate

Ag R

&D

and Yield – 5

14

SOTA

YPA

initial YPA

exponential growth in YPA linear growth in y pa

xponential\linear

transition point

y ield rel to transition point

nominal max exponential

y pa growth rate

max exponential

y pa growth rate

nominal max linear y pa growth

max linear

y pa growthactual exponential

y pa growth rate

linear growth as

% of initial y pa

ag inv rel to max

~f rac of max y pa growth obtained

max AG inv estment rate millions~

Ag R&D inv estment mm $ per y r

Ag Research & Yield

Agricultural R&D and YieldA

g R&

D and Y

ield – 6

15

Biomass Production

Calculates the total Biomass Production for Ethanol

Ag & Forest Production

Switchgrass Land Dynamics

Total Switchgrass Acres


Biomass Production


Calculates the overall switchgrass yield (ton/acre) Biomass Production to

Industrial Capacity Module

Biom

ass Production - 7

16

Biomass Production


The total switchgrass production (volume basis) is the sum of the production from land in transition to switchgrass + the production

from land established in switchgrass.

Production from land in transition is defined as the product of acreage

converting to SG and the yield based on ‘state of the art’ Ag research.

Production from established land is defined as the product of mature SG

acreage and the yield based on actual SG production.

Calculates the overall switchgrass yield (ton/acre)





Biomass Production

Switchgrass

Yield (ton/acre)

Biomass Production to Industrial Capacity

Biom

ass Production - 8

17

Biomass Production

The overall YPA is the total tonnage produced annually divided by the total acreage in switchgrass.


Calculates the overall switchgrass yield (ton/acre)





Biomass Production


Biomass Production to Industrial Capacity and Tracking Government Spending Modules

Biom

ass Production - 9

18

Biomass Production

Residue av ailable

YPA f rom ag R&D

SOTA

YPAdwell time f or translating SOTA

into SOTF

actual acres

in sg millions

multiplier f or early

SG establishment

Total Prodn

Est Land

Potential Total prodn

of Land in Transition

incoming y ield maturing 2 prodn outf lux f rom

rev ersion

reverting

maturation time

converting

to SG

actual prodn of

Land in Transition Total SG Prodn by LT

million ton per y ear

Total biomass Prodn

million tons per y r

Established

in SwitchGrass

av g YPA est land

potential SG prodn

Total SG Prodn by LT

million ton per year

ACTUAL av g y pa

Total Residue Collected

Milltion Tons per Year

Residue Collected

million tons

total sg prod'n mm t\y r

YPA Ov erallTotal Actual

Million Acres in SG

initial YPA

Biomass Production from switchgrass, Total biomass production

Old Residue Data023568140212249286286286286286

New Residue Data002784162185208224233240249258

Biom

ass Production - 10


19

Feedstock Price is Adjusted based on:

1. Ratio of Max Feedstock Supply to Demand2. Ratio of Spot Inventory to Actual Demand3. Responsiveness of Price to Change (Gain)

Feedstock PriceNumber of Plants On-

Line

Feedstock PriceFeedstock Supply

Feedstock Demand

Price Response to change (“gain”)

Max Mature Yield

Initial Feedstock Price = $20/bdt

Constant Feedstock Price Option

Feedstock P

rice -1

20

Feedstock Price

Determine an impact on the Feedstock Price due to the ratio:

Where Max Feedstock Demand is the sum of the capacity of all plants under const, starting up or online

FractionalChange in Feedstock

Price

Feedstock ProductionMax Feedstock Demand

Feedstock Price

Number of Plants On-Line

Feedstock Supply

Feedstock Demand


Max Mature Yield



Feedstock P

rice -2

Feedstock ProductionMax Feedstock Demand

21

Feedstock Price

Spot InventoryActual Feedstock Demand

FractionalChange in Feedstock

Price

Determine an impact on the Feedstock Price due to the ratio:

Where,

Spot Inventory is the difference in actual demand and production

Actual demand is the operating capacity (actual yield) of online plants

Spot InventoryActual Feedstock Demand Feedstock Price


Feedstock Supply

Feedstock Demand


Max Mature Yield



Feedstock P

rice -3

22

Feedstock Price

Calculate the Change in Feedstock Price as:

Change in Feedstock Price = Old Feedstock Price x

Spot Inventory Ratio Factor x

Max Demand Ratio Factor x

Price Response to Change (0 to 2)

Feedstock Price


Feedstock Supply

Feedstock Demand


Max Mature Yield



Feedstock P

rice -4

23

Feedstock Price

Starting

Up

Mature Plant Input

Capacity Tons per Day

OnLine

f ull util input cap

f eedstock price

Feed Stock Price chg f eedstock price initial f eedstock price

~

f rac change in f eedstock

price f rom supply demand

Total biomass Prodn


supply demand ratio

industry input capacity

million ton per y ear

y early expedted f s demand

~

f rac change price f rom inv

Biomass Spot Inv entory

producing

y early expedted f s demand

Total biomass Prodn


consuming

inv entory ratio

actual f s demand

f eedstock transport logic

low lev el f s demand exp industry input cap

f ull utilization t\d

Day s per Year Online

expected f s demand mm t\y

In Design&Cons

Const Feedstock Price Case

Assumed Feedstock Price

Feedstock Price Response Gain

Residue av ailable

low lev el prod'n when

residue switch is of f

Feedstock Price

Feedstock P

rice -5Actual STELLA

Module Flowsheet

24

Delivered Feedstock Cost

This module calculates the cost for feedstock at the plant gate.

• The plant gate feedstock cost is the largest operating cost for a conversion

facility

•The minimum ethanol selling price (MESP) calculated from this cost is

compared to gasoline and dry mill selling prices

Feedstock Price

Feedstock Cost

Yield (ton/acre)

Individual plant feedstock capacity

The delivered feedstock cost is calculated in three sections:

• Feedstock Quantity in area of plant (distance from the plant)• Calculating the transportation charge and any options, and

• Adding the feedstock price and including any subsidy for the grower

Feedstock subsidy for Farmer

Fraction of SG in Surrounding land to plant

Free Captive Feedstock Option

Free Feedstock Option for Demo & Pioneer

Delivered F

eedstock Cost -6

25



plant input capacity

tons per day

Days per Year Online

Fraction Surround

Land in SW

Miles to Plant

acres per sq mi

YPA Overall

inputcapacityton

dayDay online

YPA overallton

acre acres

mi2

Fraction in surrounding( ) land( )

The distance from the feedstock to the plant gate is calculated by using the equation below; Where

the plant size is in the numerator and the denominator consists of the yield and the fraction

of the feedstock in the surrounding area of the plant.

Feedstock Cost

Feedstock Price

Yield (ton/acre)






Delivered F

eedstock Cost -7

26



feedstock transport

cost\ton

Feedstock

Captive

industry input

capacity ton per yr

Transport ChargeMiles to Plant

$ per ton mile

Winding Factor

Fixed Transport $ per ton

Feedstock Captive[Demo]

Feedstock Free[Demo]

Feedstock Market Price[Demo]

Special Feedstock Opportunities for Demonstration Scale Facilities

Transport Cost = ($/ton-mile * Winding Factor * Miles to Plant) + Fixed Transport

$/ton

The user has an option to allow feedstock quantities under 200,000

ton/yr to be free for a demo plant. This quantity is assumed to be the fiber that

comes along with the corn and is already accounted for in the price of

the delivered corn

Feedstock Cost

Feedstock Price

Yield (ton/acre)






Delivered F

eedstock Cost -8

27



subsidized

feedstock cost\ton

~

feedstock subs per ton

feedstock cost\ton

feedstock price

feedstock transport

cost\ton

Feedstock

Captive

Feedstock

Market Price

Feedstock

Free

industry input

capacity ton per yr

The delivered feedstock cost = Transportation cost + The cost to the grower – User inputted

feedstock subsidy

feedstoc…bs per ton

U

The user has the option to make feedstock quantities for demo and pioneer plants (< 2-million tons/yr)

free for the plant operator

Feedstock Cost

Feedstock Price

Yield (ton/acre)






Delivered F

eedstock Cost -9

28


subsidized

f eedstock cost\ton

~

f eedstock subs per ton

f eedstock cost\ton

feedstock price

f eedstock transport

cost\ton

Feedstock

Captiv e

Feedstock

Market Price

Feedstock

Free

industry input

capacity ton per yr

plant input capacity

tons per day Transport Charge

Days per Year Online

Fraction Surround

Land in SW

Miles to Plant

acres per sq mi

$ per ton mile

YPA Overall

Winding Factor

Fixed Transport $ per ton

Delivered Feedstock Cost Main Page

Delivered F

eedstock Cost -10


29

Influx, Turnover and Retrofit Logic

This module calculates

• The influx of new vehicles,• The time to retirement, and

• The retrofitting of fleet vehicles

Each vehicle type is separated into three sub-fleets based on vehicle age.

The time in each sub-fleet is 1/3 of each vehicle type’s lifetime (time to retirement).

Fleet Growth Rate (%)

New Vehicle Distribution

Average miles/yr per vehicle

Average Miles to Retirement

Accelerated Vehicle Turnover

Fraction of Fleet retrofitted/yr

Retiring

Total Fleet Size

Fleet A & B size

Vehicle Influx Logic

Time to Retirement

Retrofitting Logic

Influx, Turnover and R

etrofit -1

User has option to choose between ‘Baseline’ and Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) Fleet Assumptions

30











Retiring

Total Fleet Size

Fleet A & B size


Time to Retirement

Retrofitting Logic

New Vehicle Influx Vehicle Influx Logic = total Vehicle influx * influx

distribution [Type]

Total Vehicle Influx = influx for fleet growth + influx to replace retirement

Influx for Fleet Growth = Total Fleet * Fleet Growth Rate

(%)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

% G

row

th

UCS Fleet Growth Rate Baseline Fleet Growth Rate

Conventional Gasoline Vehicle Distribution

0

15

30

45

60

75

90

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

%

UCS New CG Car Baseline New CG Car

UCS New CG Truck Baseline New CG Truck


etrofit -2

31











Retiring

Total Fleet Size

Fleet A & B size


Time to Retirement

Retrofitting Logic

Vehicle Turnover

The time to retirement for vehicles = average miles to retirement

average miles per vehicle per year.

There is an option to double the turnover rate, thereby reducing the time to retirement by a factor of two.

Flex-Fuel Vehicle Annual Mileage

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

UCS New FF Truck Baseline New FF Truck

UCS New FF Car Baseline New FF Car


etrofit -3

32











Retiring

Total Fleet Size

Fleet A & B size


Time to Retirement

Retrofitting Logic

Vehicle Retrofitting

Retrofitting is the act of modifying conventional gasoline vehicles to become a flex-fuel vehicles

The fraction of fleet vehicles retrofitted per year drives this module.

Vehicle in Fleets A & B can be retrofitted


etrofit -4

33


time to retirement

vehicle influx logictotal vehicle influx

influx distribution

fleet

accelerate vehicle turnover?

accelerated turnover multiplier

retiring rollup retiring influx to replace retirement

total fleet influx for fleet growth

frac fleet retrofitted per year

total retrofittingtotal retrofittable

Fleet A

Fleet B~

frac retrofitting from B

~

frac retrofitting from A

retrofitting A logic

retrofitting

from B or C

retrofitting B logic

retrofitting C logic

fleet growth rate %

retrofittable coeffs

influx distribution

% by vehicle type

avg miles to retirement

avg mi\vehicle\year for fleet

Influx, Turnover, Retrofit Logic

Main Page


etrofit -5Actual STELLA

Module Flowsheet

34

Fleet Size and Vehicle Efficiency Tracking

This module tracks the number of vehicles and the efficiency of vehicles of each fuel type.

There is a complimentary module to calculate the total fleet and both the average and aggregate efficiency of

each vehicle type

Flex Fuel Cars

0

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

80,000,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

Fleet A Fleet B Fleet C

Flex-Fuel Cars Efficiency

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

Mile

s pe

r G

allo

n


Fleet EfficienciesFleet Volumes

Efficiency of incoming vehicles (mpg)


Time to Retirement

Retrofitting Logic

Fleet Size

Average Vehicle Efficiency (mpg)

Retiring

Total Fleet Size

Fleet A & B size

Fleet S

ize & V

ehicle Efficiency -6

35

Fleet Size and Vehicle Efficiency Tracking


fleet influx

A to B B to C retiring

time to retirement

fleetFleet A

Fleet B

Fleet C

total fleet

vehicle influx logic

FleetEffA FleetEffB FleetEffC

eff in

eff A to B eff B to C eff out

avg Eff A

avg Eff B

avg Eff C

fleet influx

FleetEffA

FleetEffB

FleetEffC

total efficiency by fuel type

avg efficiency by vehicle type

total efficiencyavg efficiency

fleet A

retrofitting

fleet B

retrofitting

fleet C

retrofitting

eff sw A

retrofit eff sw B

retrofit

eff sw C

retrofit

retrofitting A logic

retrofitting B logic retrofitting C logic

efficiency of incoming vehicles

Structure for calculating total fleet, avg efficiency (both by fuel type and in aggregate)

Structure for tracking number of vehicles and efficiency of vehicles by fuel type

Main Page

Fleet S

ize & V

ehicle Efficiency -7

36

Fuel Consumption Logic

This module calculates the potential ethanol demand for total, E85 and E10 vehicles

•The total demand is compared to the total current production in the Plant Addition Logic

module to measure the attractiveness for investors to build additional plants

•There are also calculations for E85 and E10 potential

Fleet Size


Maximum Potential EtOH Consumption (MM-gal/yr)

To: Plant Addition Logic Module


Fuel C

onsumption -8

37


This module calculates the potential ethanol demand for total, E85 and E10 vehicles

•The total demand is compared to the total current production in the Plant Addition Logic

module to measure the attractiveness for investors to build additional plants

Fleet Size


Maximum Potential EtOH Consumption (MM-gal/yr)

output cap million gal per yr

P EtOH E85 FF mm

f rac of E10 market f illedpotential EtOH as

E10 consn mm gal

f rac of E85 market f illed

The module on the right calculates the fraction of the E85 and E10 markets filled by actual ethanol production.


Fuel C

onsumption -9

38


potential EtOH as

E10 consn mm gal

fleet

avg efficiency by vehicle type

avg mi\vehicle\year for fleet

vehicle miles\yr by veh type

total fuel consn by veh

type gasoline equivalent

potential E10 consumption

by veh type

E10 Coefficient

potential E85 consn by FFVx

E85 Coefficient

potential EtOH

consn in E85

potential EtOH

consumption from E10

total fuel consn gasoline eq

potential EtOH consn E10 CG

potential EtOH consn E85 FF

potential EtOH consumption

E10 from FF vehicles

gasoline coeffs

ffv coefficients

BTU\gal gasoline

BTU\gal ethanol

total potential EtOH

consumption as E10 P EtOH E10 FF mm P EtOH E85 FF mm

max potential etOH consn mm

Total EtOH Pot MMgal

Total Fuel Demand

Million Gallons per Year

Fuel Consumption Logic Main Page

output cap million gal per yr

P EtOH E85 FF mm

frac of E10 market filledpotential EtOH as

E10 consn mm gal

frac of E85 market filled

Fuel C

onsumption -10


Documents

Land in: Other Uses In Transition In Switchgrass