Lake Winnipeg Regulation · Simulates loss of outflow performance due to ice and ... Outflow (cms) All Months January Ftited Curve. Lake Winnipeg East Channel Outflow Rating Curve

Lake Winnipeg Regulation

Lake Winnipeg Regulation – Invited Technical Session

January 20, 2015

1

CEC Technical Workshop

January 20, 2015

Project and Operations – Kevin Gawne

2

Outline

• Manitoba Hydro System • LWR Physical Features and Licence Parameters • Energy Operations Planning • LWR Operations

3

MANITOBA HYDRO SYSTEM

4

Manitoba Hydro • Provincially owned, sole

supplier • Obligated to serve Manitoba

load • Regulated price in Manitoba • Connected to deregulated

markets • ~5,700MW capacity • Peak loads:

– Summer 3340 MW – Winter 4658 MW

• > 95% hydro

HVdcJenpeg

SelkirkBrandon

GrandRapids

Limestone

Long SpruceKettle

Laurie

River

Kelsey

LakeWinnipeg

Southern Indian Lake

Split L.

Stephens L.

St. Leon

Wuskwatim

St. Joseph

4

5

Alberta Manitoba

Saskatchewan

Minnesota

North Dakota Montana

South Dakota

Saskatchewan River Basin

Upper Churchill River Basin

Nelson River Local Basin

Red River Basin

Lower Churchill River Basin

Winnipeg River Basin

20 %

19 %

39 % 22 %

Drainage Basin

5

6

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

175%

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Per

cent

of A

vera

ge

Fiscal Year Beginning

Dependable Flow

Average Flow

2014/15 (expected)

2015/16 (median)

Extreme Drought

1940

Record Flood2005

Flood of the Century - 1997

Water Supply is Highly Variable

Dependable Energy

Surplus Energy

6

7

Manitoba’s Generating System • Winnipeg River • Cedar Lake / Grand

Rapids • Lake Winnipeg Reg. • Churchill River Div. • Lower Nelson River • Other generation • >95% hydro

Jenpeg

Selkirk Brandon

Grand Rapids

Limestone

Long Spruce Kettle

Laurie River Kelsey

Pine Falls Great Falls McArthur Falls Seven Sisters Pointe du Bois Slave Falls

Lake Winnipeg

Southern Indian Lake

Split L.

Stephens L.

St. Leon

Wuskwatim

St. Joseph

7

8

MANITOBA System Schematic

8

9

Plan and build system for drought, usually have surplus:

9

10

Power demands • Manitoba • Exports Tie-lines • Export Sales • Import Purchases

Manitoba is Interconnected to Neighbouring Markets

10

11

Manitoba and Export Demand

11

12

LWR PHYSICAL FEATURES AND LICENCE PARAMETERS

13

LWR Key Physical Features

Two-Mile Channel

Eight-Mile Channel

Ominawin Bypass

14

LWR Key Physical Features

Jenpeg

Kiskitto Lake Inlet

Kiskitto Dam

15

Combined, these features provide: • ~ 50 % increase in outflow capacity • Control of Lake Winnipeg outflow

16

WPA Interim Licence Operating Parameters

Lake Winnipeg – 3 zones • 711 feet – 715 feet

Lake Winnipeg min outflow • 25,000 cfs

Jenpeg 24 hour rate of change • 15,000 cfs

Playgreen Lake & Kiskittogisu Lake levels

Kiskitto Lake – natural range

Flood Reduction

Low Level Support

Power Production

711

715

709

713

717

Win

d El

imin

ated

W

ater

Lev

el in

Fee

t

17

Lake Winnipeg

Levels on Lake Winnipeg: Before and With LWR

17

18

Limited Storage Capability in LW

• 4 foot range provides only limited ability to manage inflow variability

• Have to respond relatively quickly to changing inflows, particularly when inflows increase

• A delay in response would require larger flow changes to stay within the power production range

• LWR effectively transfers variability in inflows to downstream

19

Hypothetical Range Required to “Smooth-Out” All Inflow Variability

• To absorb all the inflow variability and achieve constant flows downstream, the active storage in the reservoir would have to be ~40-50 feet (or >10 times more than the power production range)

20

Limited Energy Storage

Flood Reduction

Low Level Support

Power Production

711

715

709

713

717

Win

d El

imin

ated

W

ater

Lev

el in

Fee

t

Energy storage capability is less than 25% of Manitoba Hydro’s average annual hydraulic generation

21

ENERGY OPERATIONS PLANNING

22

Operations Planning Objective

“Plan for the secure and economic operation of MH’s system of reservoirs and generating stations while considering the effects on stakeholders and the environment.”

23

System Operations: Balancing Supply and Demand

inflows storage imports

natural gas, coal emergency energy

SAFETY RELIABILITY

SOCIAL INTERESTS ENVIRONMENT

ECONOMICS

SUPPLY DEMAND

domestic load exports

DEMAND

24

Observations, update

forecasts

Assess conditions, adjust plan

Communicate operating

plan

Execute operating decisions

External input and feedback

Energy Operations Planning Cycle

24

25

Decision Support Systems

• Applied Operations Research

• Trade-off between efficiency, power market opportunity, store for future opportunity

• Adhere to physical, regulatory, environmental, social constraints

• Temper operations with consideration for stakeholders and environment based

Locational Market Prices ($/MWh)

26

Hydraulic Network

26

27

Maximize net revenue subject to: • Energy Balance

– Domestic load – Contractual load

• System Capability – generating stations – reservoirs – transmission system

• Legal and Licence – water levels and flows

• Fuel supply – water – coal, natural gas

• Market Limits

28

LWR OPERATIONS

29

Typical LWR Operations by Season: Jenpeg Total Flow

Flow

in c

ubic

-feet

-per

-sec

ond

1977-2013 Avg. 1977-2013 2013 2014

WINTER WINTER SPRING SUMMER FALL

29

30

• Not one number, rather varies according to conditions

• When no ice cover, maximum discharge usually means major spill and high water levels downstream

• Lowering the Jenpeg forebay to a minimum water level

• After freeze-up, outflow is limited by ice constrictions rather than Jenpeg

• Max discharge for flood control on LW (and or winter generation)

Maximum Discharge

31

“Maximum Discharge” Depends on Conditions Je

npeg

flow

in c

ubic

-feet

-per

-sec

ond

1977-2013 Avg. 1977-2013 2013 2014

Max Discharge for Winter Generation (& Flood Control)

Max Discharge for LW Flood Control

31

32

HISTORIC OPERATIONS PLANNING DECISIONS

33

Historic Operations (CRD)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

256.000

256.500

257.000

257.500

258.000

258.500

1/1/2001 1/1/2002 1/1/2003 1/1/2004 1/1/2005 1/1/2006

Measured Water Level Measured Total Outflow Measured Notigi Outflow

South Indian Lake Water Levels and Outflows

Smoo

thed

Wat

er Le

vel (

m) Total O

utflow(cm

s)

847.5 Feet

843 Feet

34

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

15000

16000

17000

18000

19000

20000

215.000

215.500

216.000

216.500

217.000

217.500

218.000

218.500

219.000

1/1/2001 1/1/2002 1/1/2003 1/1/2004 1/1/2005 1/1/2006

Measured Water Level Measured Total Outflow

Lake Winnipeg Water Levels and Total Outflows711 to 715 Hydro Power Range

Smoo

thed

Wat

er Le

vel L

WD

(m)

Total Outflow

(cms)

715 Feet

711 Feet

Historic Operations (LWR)

35

Historic Operations (Lower Nelson R.)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

137.000

137.500

138.000

138.500

139.000

139.500

140.000

140.500

141.000

141.500

1/1/2001 1/1/2002 1/1/2003 1/1/2004 1/1/2005 1/1/2006

Measured Water Level Measured Total Outflow Measured Powerhouse Outflow

Kettle GS Water Levels and Outflows

Wat

er Le

vel (

m)

Outflow

(cms)

36

Fall Levels on Lake Winnipeg

• Concern about high levels, particularly during the fall months when damaging wind storms are more common

• Generally: – In wet years, fall levels lower with LWR – In dry years, fall levels higher with LWR (ref. Appendix 4)

37

• ‘Flattens’ load over the year • Surplus water can be used to

export instead of stored/spilled • Winter import capability

reduces dependency on Lake Winnipeg storage for MB Load

• Winter off-peak imports = ~3/4 ft on LW

Balancing Effect of Being Tied to Neighbouring Markets

37

38 38

39

LWCNRSB (1971-75) - didn’t account for major export/import capability - prediction vs. what has happened

Predicted: ~1.2 ft higher in fall Actual: only ~0.2 ft higher in fall (despite post-LWR hydrology being wetter)

40

Thank You!

Lake Winnipeg

––

––

–

–

–

–

–

–

–

Computation of Unregulated Water Levels / Flows

6

Lake Winnipeg

Inflows Outflow

Change in Water Level

If Inflow > Outflow … Water level rises If Inflow = Outflow … Water level does not change If Inflow < Outflow … Water level drops

On an unregulated lake, outflow is a function of water level. Lake Outflow

Water Level

Ü

Lake Manitoba

05RF001

05RD005

05SB006

05SA003

Montreal Point

George Island

05SG001

05RE003

Mission Point

Berens River

Gimli

Victoria Beach

05SD001

Pine Dock05SD002

Matheson Island Landing

25 0 2512.5 km

•

•

•

•

•

Data Sources

All data sources used are publically available: • Water Survey of Canada

– Water Level Measurements – Streamflow Measurements

• Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration

– Watershed Boundaries

• Department of Fisheries and Oceans Canada – Lake Winnipeg Volume/Area

• Manitoba Hydro – Water Level Measurements

8

http://www.google.ca/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CAgQjRw&url=http://www.nnas.ca/about-us/&ei=2_O3VIGkA4adyQTnvoCYBg&psig=AFQjCNGwiZiWFAhHgZNoGDeCFRakXz6rbg&ust=1421428059155182

–––

––

––––

•••

•••

––

––

–

•–

–

–

•

–

––

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

LAKE WINNIPEG REGULATION ALTERNATIVE POWER RANGE

J. Crawford – Water Resources Engineering

Outline

Model Development Calibration Results Sensitivity Analysis LWR with a 711 to 715 Power Range 711 to 714 Results 711 to 716 Results

2

Model Development 3

Model Development

Objective: Develop “Lake Winnipeg Re-Regulation” model capable of

simulating Lake Winnipeg and the Nelson River with different water power ranges between “711 to 714” and “711 to 716”.

Criteria Simulated daily water levels and river flows from 1977 to 2013 Manual Re-regulation of outflows Adheres to the other Water Power License Constraints for LWR. Considers outflow limits on East and West Channels. Up and downstream regulation unchanged Lower Nelson Analysis as well.

4

Model Schematic

Odei River * 1..63 Grass River * 1.00 Kettle River * 0.84 Burntwood River * 1.0

Split Lake

Kelsey Forebay

Kelsey

Sipiwesk Lake Outlet

Sipiwesk Lake

Cross Lake Outlet

Cross Lake

Jenpeg Nelson West Channel

Nelson East Channel

Gunisao River * 2.47

Grass River * 0.29

Grass River * 0.35

BW

Lake Winnipeg

Total Lake Winnipeg Inflow

Split Lake Outlet

5

Model Schematic

Lake Winnipeg Regulation Model

Nelson River Simulation


Split Lake

Kelsey Forebay

Kelsey


Sipiwesk Lake

Cross Lake Outlet

Cross Lake


Nelson East Channel


Grass River * 0.29

Grass River * 0.35

BW

Lake Winnipeg


Split Lake Outlet

6

Lake Winnipeg Regulation Model

Jenpeg

Nelson West Channel

Lake Winnipeg

Lake Winnipeg Inflow RTD

7

Lake Winnipeg Outlet Rating Curves

Developed based on Observed Lake Winnipeg Smoothed Water Level (LWD) and Jenpeg and East Channel Outflows

Fitted to data on a month-by-month basis Curves assumed to occur on the 15th of every month “Weighted Averaging” of curves used to interpolate

between curves (mid month to mid month) Simulates loss of outflow performance due to ice and

vegetation growth Creates “365” unique curves per year

8

L Wpg West Channel – January (example)

215

215.5

216

216.5

217

217.5

218

218.5

219

219.5

220

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000

Lak

e Win

nipe

g W

ater

Lev

el (m

)

Outflow (cms)

All Months January Fitted Curve

Lake Winnipeg West Channel Maximum Outflow

9

L Wpg East Channel – January (Example)

215

215.5

216

216.5

217

217.5

218

218.5

219

219.5

220

0.00 100.00 200.00 300.00 400.00 500.00 600.00 700.00 800.00 900.00 1000.00

Lak

e Win

nipe

g W

ater

Lev

el (m

)

Outflow (cms)

All Months January Fitted Curve

Lake Winnipeg East Channel Outflow Rating Curve

10

711 to 715 Power Range

Lake Winnipeg Calibration 11

Lake Winnipeg Calibration

NS Coeff: 0.896 MAE: 161cms R2: 0.896 %dv: 0.2%

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

215.000

215.500

216.000

216.500

217.000

217.500

218.000

218.500

219.000

1/1/1977 1/1/1978 1/1/1979 1/1/1980 1/1/1981

Measured Water Level Simulated Water Level Measured Total Outflow Simulated Total Outflow

Lake Winnipeg Water Levels and Total OutflowsCalibration

Smoo

thed

Wat

er Le

vel L

WD

(m)Total O

utflow(cm

s)

715 Feet

714 Feet

711 Feet

12

Sensitivity to Initial Water Level Starting Water Level (218.6 m ASL)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

215.000

215.500

216.000

216.500

217.000

217.500

218.000

218.500

219.000

1/1/1977 1/1/1978 1/1/1979 1/1/1980 1/1/1981


Lake Winnipeg Water Levels and Total OutflowsSensitivity

Smoo

thed

Wat

er Le

vel L

WD

(m)Total O

utflow(cm

s)

715 Feet

714 Feet

711 Feet

Simulated Starting Water Level 218.6 M

Maximum Outflow

13

Nelson River Routing Model 14

Nelson Routing Model Engine


Split Lake

Kelsey Forebay

Kelsey


Sipiwesk Lake

Cross Lake Outlet

Cross Lake


Nelson East Channel


Grass River * 0.29

Grass River * 0.35

BW

Lake Winnipeg


Split Lake Outlet

15

Nelson Routing Model Engine

Formula: Storage(l,t+1) = Storage(l,t ) + Inflow(l, t) – Outflow(l,t)

Where: Storage(l,t+1) is the storage for the next day in cms-days for the

Storage(l,t) is the storage at the beginning of the current day

Inflow(l,t) is the total inflow into the lake during the day

Outflow(l,t) is the total outflow from the lake during the day

16

Routing Model Engine

Formula: Storage(l,t+1) = Storage(l,t ) + Inflow(l, t) – Outflow(l,t)

Where: Storage(l,t+1) is the storage for the next day in cms-days for the

Storage(l,t) is the storage at the beginning of the current day

Inflow(l,t) is the total inflow into the lake during the day

Outflow(l,t) is the total outflow from the lake during the day

Inflowt

Storaget

Outflowt

Storaget+1

Outflowt is a function of the average water level

Storage t+1 is a function of Storage, Inflow and outflow

17

Routing Model Engine

Simplifying Assumption Storage(l,t+1) = Storage(l,t ) + Inflow(l, t) – Outflow(l,t)

Assume Outflow(l,t) is a function of Storage(l,t) at the start of the day

One equation for one unknown therefore solvable for Storage t+1

Assumption produces low error because of the daily time step that is self correcting.

Inflowt

Storaget

Outflowt

Storaget+1 Solve for one unknown

18

Split Lake – OW rating Curve 19

Split Lake Simulated Results 711 to 715

165.00

166.00

167.00

168.00

169.00

170.00

171.00

1/1/2000 1/1/2001 1/1/2002 1/1/2003 1/1/2004 1/1/2005 1/1/2006 1/1/2007 1/1/2008 1/1/2009 1/1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013

Wat

er L

evel

(m)

Split Lake Water LevelsSimulated 711 to 715 Hydro Power Range

SPLT_SPLT.HG.DCP_BE.D1.R Simulated

Statistics:R-Squared =Mean Error = (m) Mean ABS Error = (m)

1.000.00

0.01

20

• The current LWR power range is from 711 to 715 feet. When Lake Winnipeg wind eliminated water levels are within this range outflows are set primarily to maximize power production benefits.

• When water level rise above 715 feet outflows are increased to maximum to mitigate flooding around Lake Winnipeg.

• When water levels drop below 711 feet outflows are set as ordered by the Minister responsible for the Water Power Act to provide drought support.

Lake Winnipeg Regulation (711 to 715) 21

• Power Range Drops by a foot... • Maximum Outflow required Above 714 feet

711 to 714 LWR 22

711 to 714 Results for 1977 to 2013 Lake Winnipeg Water Level and Outflow

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

215.000

215.500

216.000

216.500

217.000

217.500

218.000

218.500

219.000

1/1/

1977

1/1/

1978

1/1/

1979

1/1/

1980

1/1/

1981

1/1/

1982

1/1/

1983

1/1/

1984

1/1/

1985

1/1/

1986

1/1/

1987

1/1/

1988

1/1/

1989

1/1/

1990

1/1/

1991

1/1/

1992

1/1/

1993

1/1/

1994

1/1/

1995

1/1/

1996

1/1/

1997

1/1/

1998

1/1/

1999

1/1/

2000

1/1/

2001

1/1/

2002

1/1/

2003

1/1/

2004

1/1/

2005

1/1/

2006

1/1/

2007

1/1/

2008

1/1/

2009

1/1/

2010

1/1/

2011

1/1/

2012

1/1/

2013


Lake Winnipeg Water Levels and Total OutflowsSimulated 711 to 714 Hydro Power Range

Smoo

thed

Wat

er Le

vel L

WD

(m)Total O

utflow(cm

s)

23

Results Measured vs. 711 to 714 Power Range

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

215.000

215.500

216.000

216.500

217.000

217.500

218.000

218.500

219.000

1/1/1977 1/1/1978 1/1/1979 1/1/1980 1/1/1981



Smoo

thed

Wat

er Le

vel L

WD

(m)

Total Outflow

(cms)

715 Feet

714 Feet

711 Feet

Lake Winnipeg Water Levels

24


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

215.000

215.500

216.000

216.500

217.000

217.500

218.000

218.500

219.000

1/1/1977 1/1/1978 1/1/1979 1/1/1980 1/1/1981



Smoo

thed

Wat

er Le

vel L

WD

(m)

Total Outflow

(cms)

715 Feet

714 Feet

711 Feet


Lake Winnipeg Outflow

25


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

215.000

215.500

216.000

216.500

217.000

217.500

218.000

218.500

219.000

1/1/1977 1/1/1978 1/1/1979 1/1/1980 1/1/1981



Smoo

thed

Wat

er Le

vel L

WD

(m)

Total Outflow

(cms)

715 Feet

714 Feet

711 Feet

Lake Winnipeg Approaching 714

26


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

215.000

215.500

216.000

216.500

217.000

217.500

218.000

218.500

219.000

1/1/1977 1/1/1978 1/1/1979 1/1/1980 1/1/1981



Smoo

thed

Wat

er Le

vel L

WD

(m)

Total Outflow

(cms)

715 Feet

714 Feet

711 Feet


Increase Outflows

27


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

215.000

215.500

216.000

216.500

217.000

217.500

218.000

218.500

219.000

1/1/1977 1/1/1978 1/1/1979 1/1/1980 1/1/1981



Smoo

thed

Wat

er Le

vel L

WD

(m)

Total Outflow

(cms)

715 Feet

714 Feet

711 Feet


Increase Outflows

Lake Winnipeg Miscellaneously 713.75

28


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

215.000

215.500

216.000

216.500

217.000

217.500

218.000

218.500

219.000

1/1/1977 1/1/1978 1/1/1979 1/1/1980 1/1/1981



Smoo

thed

Wat

er Le

vel L

WD

(m)

Total Outflow

(cms)

715 Feet

714 Feet

711 Feet


Increase Outflows

Lake Winnipeg Miscellaneously 713.75

Reduced Winter Outflow

29


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

215.000

215.500

216.000

216.500

217.000

217.500

218.000

218.500

219.000

1/1/1977 1/1/1978 1/1/1979 1/1/1980 1/1/1981



Smoo

thed

Wat

er Le

vel L

WD

(m)

Total Outflow

(cms)

715 Feet

714 Feet

711 Feet


30


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

215.000

215.500

216.000

216.500

217.000

217.500

218.000

218.500

219.000

1/1/1977 1/1/1978 1/1/1979 1/1/1980 1/1/1981



Smoo

thed

Wat

er Le

vel L

WD

(m)

Total Outflow

(cms)

715 Feet

714 Feet

711 Feet


Increase Outflows to Max

31


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

215.000

215.500

216.000

216.500

217.000

217.500

218.000

218.500

219.000

1/1/1977 1/1/1978 1/1/1979 1/1/1980 1/1/1981



Smoo

thed

Wat

er Le

vel L

WD

(m)

Total Outflow

(cms)

715 Feet

714 Feet

711 Feet


Increase Outflows to Max

Increased Flood Duration

32


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

215.000

215.500

216.000

216.500

217.000

217.500

218.000

218.500

219.000

1/1/1977 1/1/1978 1/1/1979 1/1/1980 1/1/1981



Smoo

thed

Wat

er Le

vel L

WD

(m)

Total Outflow

(cms)

715 Feet

714 Feet

711 FeetIncrease Outflow to Max


Reduced Winter Outflow


33


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

215.000

215.500

216.000

216.500

217.000

217.500

218.000

218.500

219.000

1/1/1982 1/1/1983 1/1/1984 1/1/1985 1/1/1986



Smoo

thed

Wat

er Le

vel L

WD

(m)

Total Outflow

(cms)

715 Feet

714 Feet

711 Feet

34


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

215.000

215.500

216.000

216.500

217.000

217.500

218.000

218.500

219.000

1/1/1987 1/1/1988 1/1/1989 1/1/1990 1/1/1991



Smoo

thed

Wat

er Le

vel L

WD

(m)

Total Outflow

(cms)

715 Feet

714 Feet

711 Feet

35


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

215.000

215.500

216.000

216.500

217.000

217.500

218.000

218.500

219.000

1/1/2007 1/1/2008 1/1/2009 1/1/2010 1/1/2011



Smoo

thed

Wat

er Le

vel L

WD

(m)

Total Outflow

(cms)

715 Feet

714 Feet

711 Feet

36

216.000

216.500

217.000

217.500

218.000

218.500

219.000

1/1/2000 1/1/2001 1/1/2002 1/1/2003 1/1/2004 1/1/2005 1/1/2006 1/1/2007 1/1/2008 1/1/2009 1/1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013

Measured Water Level Simulated Water Level

Lake Winnipeg Water Simulated 711 to 714 Hydro Power Range

Smoo

thed

Wat

er Le

vel L

WD

(m)

715 Feet

714 Feet

711 Feet

711 to 714 Results for 2000 to 2013 Lake Winnipeg Elevation

Lower Lake Winnipeg Water Levels (Avg -0.4 feet)

37

216.000

216.500

217.000

217.500

218.000

218.500

219.000

1/1/2000 1/1/2001 1/1/2002 1/1/2003 1/1/2004 1/1/2005 1/1/2006 1/1/2007 1/1/2008 1/1/2009 1/1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013



Smoo

thed

Wat

er Le

vel L

WD

(m)

715 Feet

714 Feet

711 Feet


Similar Severe Flood Water Levels (Avg -0.2 feet)

38

216.000

216.500

217.000

217.500

218.000

218.500

219.000

1/1/2000 1/1/2001 1/1/2002 1/1/2003 1/1/2004 1/1/2005 1/1/2006 1/1/2007 1/1/2008 1/1/2009 1/1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013



Smoo

thed

Wat

er Le

vel L

WD

(m)

715 Feet

714 Feet

711 Feet


Similar Severe Drought Water Levels (-0.2 feet)

39

711 to 714 Results for 2000 to 2013 Lake Winnipeg Outflow

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1/1/2000 1/1/2001 1/1/2002 1/1/2003 1/1/2004 1/1/2005 1/1/2006 1/1/2007 1/1/2008 1/1/2009 1/1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013

Flow

(cm

s)Total Lake Winnipeg Outflow

Simulated 711 to 714 Hydro Power Range

Simulated 714 Measured

Increased Flood Frequency

Flow Spikes

40


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1/1/2000 1/1/2001 1/1/2002 1/1/2003 1/1/2004 1/1/2005 1/1/2006 1/1/2007 1/1/2008 1/1/2009 1/1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013

Flow

(cm

s)Total Lake Winnipeg Outflow

Simulated 711 to 714 Hydro Power Range

Simulated 714 Measured


41

206.00

206.50

207.00

207.50

208.00

208.50

209.00

209.50

1/1/2000 1/1/2001 1/1/2002 1/1/2003 1/1/2004 1/1/2005 1/1/2006 1/1/2007 1/1/2008 1/1/2009 1/1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013

Wat

er L

evel

Cross Lake Water LevelsSimulated 711 to 714 Hydro Power Range

CRSS_CRSS.HG.DCP_BE.D1.R (05UD001) Simulated

711 to 714 Results for 2000 to 2013 Cross Lake, Sipiwesk Lake, Split Lake

Similar Severe Flood Water Levels

42


9

28

LWR 711 to 715

Years with maximum discharge at Jenpeg (1977 to 2013)

Years without maximum discharge at Jenpeg (1977 to 2013)

24

13

LWR 711 to 714

43

• Power Range Goes up by a foot... • Maximum Outflow required Above 716 feet • Target Lower Nelson flow of 4500 cms

711 to 716 LWR 44

711 to 716 Model Results 45

1977 to 2013 Results – 711 to 716 Lake Winnipeg

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

215.000

215.500

216.000

216.500

217.000

217.500

218.000

218.500

219.000

1/1/

1977

1/1/

1978

1/1/

1979

1/1/

1980

1/1/

1981

1/1/

1982

1/1/

1983

1/1/

1984

1/1/

1985

1/1/

1986

1/1/

1987

1/1/

1988

1/1/

1989

1/1/

1990

1/1/

1991

1/1/

1992

1/1/

1993

1/1/

1994

1/1/

1995

1/1/

1996

1/1/

1997

1/1/

1998

1/1/

1999

1/1/

2000

1/1/

2001

1/1/

2002

1/1/

2003

1/1/

2004

1/1/

2005

1/1/

2006

1/1/

2007

1/1/

2008

1/1/

2009

1/1/

2010

1/1/

2011

1/1/

2012

1/1/

2013



Smoo

thed

Wat

er Le

vel L

WD

(m)

Total Outflow

(cms)

46


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

215.000

215.500

216.000

216.500

217.000

217.500

218.000

218.500

219.000

1/1/1977 1/1/1978 1/1/1979 1/1/1980 1/1/1981

Measured Water Level Simulated Water Level Measured Total Outflow

Simulated Total Outflow Measured Kettle Inflow RTU Simulated Kettle Inflow


Smoo

thed

Wat

er Le

vel L

WD

(m)

Total Outflow

(cms)

715 Feet

716 Feet

711 Feet 155 kcfs


47


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

215.000

215.500

216.000

216.500

217.000

217.500

218.000

218.500

219.000

1/1/1977 1/1/1978 1/1/1979 1/1/1980 1/1/1981




Smoo

thed

Wat

er Le

vel L

WD

(m)

Total Outflow

(cms)

715 Feet

716 Feet

711 Feet 155 kcfs

Kettle Inflow

48


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

215.000

215.500

216.000

216.500

217.000

217.500

218.000

218.500

219.000

1/1/1977 1/1/1978 1/1/1979 1/1/1980 1/1/1981




Smoo

thed

Wat

er Le

vel L

WD

(m)

Total Outflow

(cms)

715 Feet

716 Feet

711 Feet 155 kcfs

Lake Winnipeg Outflow

49


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

215.000

215.500

216.000

216.500

217.000

217.500

218.000

218.500

219.000

1/1/1977 1/1/1978 1/1/1979 1/1/1980 1/1/1981




Smoo

thed

Wat

er Le

vel L

WD

(m)

Total Outflow

(cms)

715 Feet

716 Feet

711 Feet 155 kcfs

Lake Winnipeg passes 715

50


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

215.000

215.500

216.000

216.500

217.000

217.500

218.000

218.500

219.000

1/1/1977 1/1/1978 1/1/1979 1/1/1980 1/1/1981




Smoo

thed

Wat

er Le

vel L

WD

(m)

Total Outflow

(cms)

715 Feet

716 Feet

711 Feet 155 kcfs


Increased Outflow still Necessary

51


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

215.000

215.500

216.000

216.500

217.000

217.500

218.000

218.500

219.000

1/1/1977 1/1/1978 1/1/1979 1/1/1980 1/1/1981




Smoo

thed

Wat

er Le

vel L

WD

(m)

Total Outflow

(cms)

715 Feet

716 Feet

711 Feet 155 kcfs



Skirt 715.75 Feet

52


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

215.000

215.500

216.000

216.500

217.000

217.500

218.000

218.500

219.000

1/1/1977 1/1/1978 1/1/1979 1/1/1980 1/1/1981




Smoo

thed

Wat

er Le

vel L

WD

(m)

Total Outflow

(cms)

715 Feet

716 Feet

711 Feet 155 kcfs



Skirt 715.75 Feet

Lower Nelson Spill Still Occurs

53


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

215.000

215.500

216.000

216.500

217.000

217.500

218.000

218.500

219.000

1/1/1977 1/1/1978 1/1/1979 1/1/1980 1/1/1981




Smoo

thed

Wat

er Le

vel L

WD

(m)

Total Outflow

(cms)

715 Feet

716 Feet

711 Feet 155 kcfs



Skirt 715.75 Feet

Higher East Channel Flow

54

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

215.000

215.500

216.000

216.500

217.000

217.500

218.000

218.500

219.000

1/1/1982 1/1/1983 1/1/1984 1/1/1985 1/1/1986




Smoo

thed

Wat

er Le

vel L

WD

(m)

Total Outflow

(cms)

716 Feet

715 Feet

711 Feet 155 kcfs



55

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

215.000

215.500

216.000

216.500

217.000

217.500

218.000

218.500

219.000

1/1/1982 1/1/1983 1/1/1984 1/1/1985 1/1/1986




Smoo

thed

Wat

er Le

vel L

WD

(m)

Total Outflow

(cms)

716 Feet

715 Feet

711 Feet 155 kcfs



Maximum Outflow not Necessary

56

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

215.000

215.500

216.000

216.500

217.000

217.500

218.000

218.500

219.000

1/1/1982 1/1/1983 1/1/1984 1/1/1985 1/1/1986




Smoo

thed

Wat

er Le

vel L

WD

(m)

Total Outflow

(cms)

716 Feet

715 Feet

711 Feet 155 kcfs



Maximum Outflow not Necessary

Kettle Inflow around155 kcfs

57

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

215.000

215.500

216.000

216.500

217.000

217.500

218.000

218.500

219.000



Smoo

thed

Wat

er Le

vel L

WD

(m)

Total Outflow

(cms)

716 Feet

715 Feet

711 Feet 155 kcfs

2000 to 2013 Results 711 to 716 Lake Winnipeg

Higher Water Levels on Lake Winnipeg (Avg +0.3 feet)

58

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

215.000

215.500

216.000

216.500

217.000

217.500

218.000

218.500

219.000



Smoo

thed

Wat

er Le

vel L

WD

(m)

Total Outflow

(cms)

716 Feet

715 Feet

711 Feet 155 kcfs


Similar Severe Flood Peaks (2005 and 2011)

59

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

215.000

215.500

216.000

216.500

217.000

217.500

218.000

218.500

219.000



Smoo

thed

Wat

er Le

vel L

WD

(m)

Total Outflow

(cms)

716 Feet

715 Feet

711 Feet 155 kcfs


Reduced Flood Peaks Downstream

60

206.00

206.50

207.00

207.50

208.00

208.50

209.00

209.50

1/1/2000 1/1/2001 1/1/2002 1/1/2003 1/1/2004 1/1/2005 1/1/2006 1/1/2007 1/1/2008 1/1/2009 1/1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013

Wat

er L

evel


Simulated CRSS_CRSS.HG.DCP_BE.D1.R (05UD001)


Reduced Flood Frequency

61

206.00

206.50

207.00

207.50

208.00

208.50

209.00

209.50

1/1/2000 1/1/2001 1/1/2002 1/1/2003 1/1/2004 1/1/2005 1/1/2006 1/1/2007 1/1/2008 1/1/2009 1/1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013

Wat

er L

evel


Simulated CRSS_CRSS.HG.DCP_BE.D1.R (05UD001)


Similar Severe Flood Water Levels

62

9

28

LWR 711 to 715

Years with maximum discharge at Jenpeg (1977 to 2013)

Years without maximum discharge at Jenpeg (1977 to 2013)

4

33

LWR 711 to 716

63

Thank You

64

Documents

Lake Winnipeg Regulation · Simulates loss of outflow performance due to ice and ... Outflow (cms) All Months January Ftited Curve. Lake Winnipeg East Channel Outflow Rating Curve