Bukola Johnson

LUMA-GIS, Sweden

Objectives

Background

Datasets

Methodology

Results

Conclusion

EEffective planning and management of finite natural

resources for sustainable development in Lake Victoria

Region

Lake Victoria: World’s 2nd largest fresh water body

Surface boundary: Tanzania (49%), Uganda (45%) and Kenya(6%)

Economic contribution worth USD 3-4 billion annually

Sustenance for 25 million people (1/3 of the region population)

Economic activities:

Agriculture (Tea and Coffee plantation) & Fishing,

Source of water for industry & Transportation,

Recreation &Tourists attraction

Adm. Boundaries:Shape files for Kenya, Tanzania & Uganda from FAO AfricoverShape file for Lake Victoria region (3 countries) from UNEP

ClimatePrecipitation data for Africa in text (ASCII) formatPeer- reviewed journal (New et al, 2002)

DEMTwo tiles from GTOPO30E020N40.DEM covering Kenya and Uganda E020S10.DEM covering SE of Tanzania

Land cover/ Land useIGBP raster in .bsq format for Africa. PopulationRaster files (.TIF format) for Africa population(1990 and 2000) from UNEP

Protected AreasPersonal Geodatabase (.mdb) for Africa from UNEP & World Conservation Union

Conceptual planning and modeling.

Data previewed in Arc Catalog

Convert data to ESRI GRID format

Define data projection

Re-project data to WGS84 and Lambert Azimuthal Equal

Area projection

The Study Area clipped from the Africa dataset.

Loading project data in Personal Geodatabase

Data Analysis

CountryArea

(Sq. Km)Population

Yr. 2000Population

Yr. 1990Annual GR (%)

Kenya 582164 30,536,278 23,465,996 3.0

Tanzania 941757 34,522,944 25,782,720 3.4

Uganda 241278 22,961,634 17,582,136 3.1

Table 1: Population Growth in Lake Victoria RegionTable 1: Population Growth in Lake Victoria Region

Land cover Kenya % Tanzania % Uganda %

Forest 8904 4 103519 23 8967 5Shrubland 67786 32 34934 8 8254 5Savanna 64470 30 52960 12 56845 34Grassland 16090 8 60444 13 2011 1Permanent Wetland

11052 5 55568 12 56 0

Croplands 22847 11 97002 22 61729 37Urban and built-up 6455 3 19118 4 73 0Barren and Sparsely vegetated

10481 5 1606 0 1993 1

Water Bodies 4529 2 23489 5 28411 17Total 212614 100 448640 100 168339 100

Table 2: Land Cover Statistics for Kenya, Tanzania and Table 2: Land Cover Statistics for Kenya, Tanzania and UgandaUganda

Country Pop 2000 Area of Cropland

Pop 2030Area of

Cropland Required

Additional Cropland

Kenya 30,536,278 22,847 916,101,840 685,244 662,397Tanzania 34,522,944 97,002 950,153,040 2,669,930 2,572,928Uganda 22,961,634 61,729 774,384,990 2,081,547 2,019,818

Table 3: Additional Cropland for Population in Year Table 3: Additional Cropland for Population in Year 20302030

Crop needs sufficient and effective rain to grow and produce yields.

Croplands were located in the region with middle range precipitation.

Croplands were found around Lake Victoria.

The croplands situated where the elevation relatively low.

In high elevation, rain water essential for productivity runs off.

Croplands are largely located in elevation range of 0-1999

Finite natural resources with competing demands.

Sufficient rainfall in the region with Lake Victoria as a reservoir.

Biophysical constraint such as topography that affect land use.

Elevation influences geographical distribution of croplands.

The mean annual population growth rate is about 3% for the region.

Attendant decline in cropland per capita with population growth.

To ensure food security and social development:

Implement landuse regulation

Convert parts of forest land to croplands

Exploit species and hybrid plants with high yield

and short maturity time

Promote Family Planning to control population

explosion.