LacduFlambeauTribeHazardMitigationPlanDraftforPublicCommentApril5,2019

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ThisprojectwasfundedbytheFederalEmergencyManagementAssociation(Grant#:XXXXXXXX)andmanagedbytheEmergencyManagementDepartmentfortheLacduFlambeauTribe.Wewouldliketopersonallythankallofthecontributorswhoprovidedtheirtime,expertise,andinputintotheformationofthisdocumentincluding:theTribalCouncil;allthemembersoftheTribalEmergencyPlanningCommittee;andcommunitymembersandelderswhoprovidedinputandinsightsthataidedinthecreationofthisplan.SpecialthankstotheprojectcoreteamthatincludedEricChapman,DamonCoppola,BrianGauthier,GeorgeHaddow,ElluNasser,SaschaPetersen,andAndreVirden,

RecommendedCitation:LacduFlambeauTribe.2019.HazardMitigationPlan.Chapman,E.,Gauthier,B.,Petersen,S.,Haddow,G.,Cappola,D.,eds.FundedbytheFederalEmergencyManagementAgency.Available:http://www.ldftribe.com/resilienceCoverPhotoCredits:

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Table of Contents TheLacduFlambeauTribeandOjibwePeople.............................................................................7

Part1:PlanningProcess(ElementA)................................................................................................9

Introduction......................................................................................................................................................9

PlanningProcess...........................................................................................................................................10PhaseI:CommunityEngagementandIdentificationofKeyHazards........................................................................10PhaseII:AnalysisofCurrentandFutureRisk......................................................................................................................12PhaseIII:DevelopmentofMitigationActions......................................................................................................................12PhaseIV:PlanReview.....................................................................................................................................................................12

TribalEmergencyPlanningCommittee................................................................................................12

PublicEngagementProcess......................................................................................................................13

InvolvingNeighboringJurisdictions......................................................................................................14

BuildingoffExistingConditionsandNewResearch.........................................................................14

KeepingthePlanCurrentandFutureUpdates...................................................................................15

Part2:PlanningArea............................................................................................................................16

GeographyandClimate..............................................................................................................................16

Population.......................................................................................................................................................19People.....................................................................................................................................................................................................19Employment,Economy,andEducation...................................................................................................................................20HistoricClimateObservation.......................................................................................................................................................20ChangingClimateConditions.......................................................................................................................................................21

NaturalandCulturalResources...............................................................................................................24

CriticalFacilities...........................................................................................................................................25

Part3:HazardIdentificationandRiskAssessment(ElementB)...........................................26

HazardIdentificationOverview..............................................................................................................26

AssessmentApproach/Methodology.....................................................................................................27AssessmentFactors..........................................................................................................................................................................27AssessmentFormula........................................................................................................................................................................29

HazardProfilesandAssessment.............................................................................................................301.PlantandAnimalEpidemic/InvasiveSpecies/SpeciesLoss...........................................................................312.IllegalDrugCrisis...................................................................................................................................................................363. SevereThunderstorms/Lightning/Hail...................................................................................................................404. Epidemic/Pandemic/Vector-BorneDisease..........................................................................................................425. Flood(flashflood,lake,river,stormwater)................................................................................................................456. SevereWinterStorms/IceStorms................................................................................................................................507. ForestandWildlandFires...................................................................................................................................................52

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8.HazardousMaterialsRelease/Contamination/Run-off....................................................................................589.Tornado/HighWind...........................................................................................................................................................6210. ExtremeHeat.......................................................................................................................................................................6711. ExtremeCold.......................................................................................................................................................................7112. SchoolViolence/ArmedAttack/WorkplaceViolence...................................................................................7313. DamFailure..........................................................................................................................................................................75

PartIV:MitigationStrategies(ElementC).....................................................................................77

DevelopmentProcess..................................................................................................................................77

CriteriaforEvaluatingActions.................................................................................................................77

PriorityActions.............................................................................................................................................77

AllHazardMitigationActions...................................................................................................................781. AllHazards................................................................................................................................................................................782. PlantandAnimalEpidemic/InvasiveSpecies/SpeciesLoss...........................................................................793. IllegalDrugCrisis....................................................................................................................................................................794. SevereThunderstorms/Lightning/Hail...................................................................................................................815. Epidemic/Pandemic/Vector-BorneDisease..........................................................................................................826. Flood(flashflood,lake,river,stormwater)................................................................................................................837. SevereWinterStorms/IceStorms................................................................................................................................858. Forest/WildlandFire..........................................................................................................................................................859. HazardousMaterialsRelease/Contamination/Run-off.....................................................................................8710. Tornado/HighWind......................................................................................................................................................8811. ExtremeHeat.......................................................................................................................................................................8912. ExtremeCold.......................................................................................................................................................................8913. SchoolViolence/ArmedAttack/WorkplaceViolence...................................................................................8914. DamFailure..........................................................................................................................................................................90

PartV:PlanUpdates(ElementD).....................................................................................................91

FutureUpdates..............................................................................................................................................91

StatusofActionsIdentifiedinthe2006Plan......................................................................................91

PlanIntegration............................................................................................................................................91

PartVI:AssurancesandPlanAdoption(ElementE)..................................................................92

AppendixA:AnalysisofClimateData..............................................................................................93

ClimatologicalObservationsSummaries..............................................................................................93

SelectionofGeographicAreaofInterest..............................................................................................94

ClimateProjectionsSummaries..............................................................................................................96

AppendixB:PublicEngagement.....................................................................................................104

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List of Figures Figure1:TheLacduFlambeauTribalResilienceInitiativeLogo................................................................................................11Figure2:LocationoftheLacduFlambeauReservationinNorthCentralWisconsin.........................................................16Figure3:LacduFlambeauReservationarea(blacksquare)andsurroundinglandscape..............................................17Figure4:LandcoverbytypefortheLacduFlambeauReservation...........................................................................................17Figure5:LandCoverandLandUseintheLacduFlambeauRegion..........................................................................................19Figure6:ProjectedchangesinAverageAnnualTemperaturefortheregion........................................................................22Figure7:ProjectedchangesinAverageAnnualPrecipitationfortheregion.........................................................................22Figure8:Summaryofprojectedchangesintemperatureandprecipitationbyseasonbythe2050s.........................23Figure9:Summaryofprojectedseasonalclimatechangesby2050...........................................................................................23Figure10:Manoomin(WildRice)harvestareasinandaroundthereservation..................................................................24Figure11:CriticalfacilitieswithintheLacduFlambeauReservation......................................................................................25Figure12:Rankingofthetop13keyhazardsandtheiroverallhazardranking.................................................................31Figure13:NationalOverdoseDeathsfromOpioidDrugsintheUnitedStatesbyYear.....................................................36Figure14:EmergencyMedicalServicesRunswithNaloxoneAdministrationbyPatientCountyofResidence......36Figure15:NumberofOpioidrelatedoverdosebytypeinWisconsin.........................................................................................37Figure16:NationalFloodHazarddesignationsfortheLacduFlambeauReservation....................................................48Figure17:NumberofWildfiresperyearontheLacduFlambeauReservationfrom1980-2013.................................53Figure18:DetailedwildfireeventsbycausefortheLacduFlambeauReservationfrom1980-2013.........................54Figure19:WildlandUrbanInterfacedesignationsfortheLacduFlambeauReservations.............................................55Figure20:EnhancedFujita(EF)Ratings,windspeeds,andexpecteddamages.....................................................................63Figure21:HeatWarningsforfrontlineorvulnerablepopulationsbasedontemperatureandhumiditylevels....68Figure22:Heatrelatedvulnerabilitybycensusblockgroup.........................................................................................................69Figure23:WildChillandrelativetemperatures..................................................................................................................................71Figure24:Averagewinter(December,January,February)temperaturesfortheStateofWisconsin........................72Figure25:LacduFlambeauTCRP'sAreaofInterest.........................................................................................................................94Figure26:TheAOIoverlaidontheNCEIClimateDivisions............................................................................................................95Figure27:TheGHCN-DStationObservationsaroundtheLacduFlambeauReservation................................................96Figure28:Depictionglobalandregionalclimatemodelresolution...........................................................................................97

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List of Tables Table1:MembersoftheTribalEmergencyPlanningCommittee(TEPC)................................................................................13Table2:LandcoverbytypefortheLacduFlambeauReservation.............................................................................................18Table3:SummaryofkeyhistoricclimatevariablesfortheLacduFlambeauRegion.......................................................21Table4:Summaryofobservedchangesintemperatureandprecipitationfortheregion...............................................21Table5:CriticalfacilitieswithintheLacduFlambeauReservation...........................................................................................26Table6:VulnerabilityandriskassessmentforPlantandAnimalEpidemic...........................................................................34Table7:VulnerabilityandriskassessmentfortheIllegalDrugCrisis.......................................................................................39Table8:VulnerabilityandriskassessmentfortheSevereThunderstorms/Lightning/Hail.......................................41Table9:VulnerabilityandriskassessmentforEpidemic/Pandemic/VectorBorneDisease.......................................44Table10:VulnerabilityandriskassessmentforFlooding...............................................................................................................49Table11:VulnerabilityandriskassessmentforSevereWinterStorms/IceStorms..........................................................51Table12:VulnerabilityandriskassessmentforForestandWildlandFires............................................................................57Table13:SummaryofrecordedHazardousMaterialspills,releases,orleaksintheLacduFlambeauRegion.....59Table14:VulnerabilityandriskassessmentforHazardousMaterialsRelease/Contamination/Run-off.............61Table15:VulnerabilityandriskassessmentforTornado/HighWind.....................................................................................66Table16:VulnerabilityandriskassessmentforExtremeHeat.....................................................................................................70Table17:VulnerabilityandriskassessmentforExtremeCold......................................................................................................72Table18:VulnerabilityandriskassessmentforSchoolViolence/ArmedAttack/WorkplaceViolence..................74Table19:VulnerabilityandriskassessmentforDamFailure.......................................................................................................75Table20:PhaseI-ImplementationactionsidentifiedbytheTEPCasstartingpointsforaction..................................78Table21:Actionstomitigatetheriskofallnaturalandmanmadehazardsaffectingthecommunity......................78Table22:ActionstomitigatetheriskofPlant&AnimalEpidemics/InvasiveSpecies/SpeciesLoss.......................79Table23:ActionstomitigatetheriskoftheIllegalDrugCrisis....................................................................................................80Table24:ActionstomitigatetheriskofSevereThunderstorms/Lightning/Hail............................................................81Table25:ActionstomitigatetheriskofEpidemic/Pandemic/Vector-BorneDisease...................................................82Table26:ActionstomitigatetheriskofFlooding..............................................................................................................................84Table27:ActionstomitigatetheriskofSevereWinterStorms/IceStorms.........................................................................85Table28:ActionstomitigatetheriskofWildfire/StructureFire..............................................................................................86Table29:Actionstomitigatetheriskofnaturalorman-madeHazardousMaterialsrelease.......................................87Table30:ActionstomitigatetheriskofTornadoes/HighWinds..............................................................................................88Table31:ActionstomitigatetheriskofExtremeHeat....................................................................................................................89Table32:ActionstomitigatetheriskofExtremeCold.....................................................................................................................89Table33:ActionstomitigatetheriskofSchoolViolence/ArmedAttacks/WorkplaceViolence...............................90Table34:ActionstomitigatetheriskofDamFailure.......................................................................................................................90Table35:SummaryofRegCM4historicalperformance...................................................................................................................99Table36:InstitutionsproducingGCMsimulationsusedtoprovideboundaryconditionstoRegCM4......................100Table37:ListofthevariableschosenbyTCRP,AI,andGLISAfortheclimateanalysisoftheAOI.............................10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The Lac du Flambeau Tribe and Ojibwe People Before Columbus made his voyages, Cortes conquered Mexico, and Samuel de Champlain searched for a series of lakes he believed would link the Pacific with the Atlantic, the Anishinabe (Original People) lived near the mouth of the St. Lawrence River on the east coast. From there, they migrated slowly to the west guided by 7 prophecies that their journey would end where they found food growing on water. The prophecy was fulfilled after a centuries-long migration when they found manoomin (wild rice) in the waters of Lake Superior. By 1600 they had settled where the water of Lake Superior enters Lake Huron.

“Since their early history, the Ojibwe have called themselves Anishinabe, meaning spontaneously created or original man, and many prefer this name today. Thus, man was the

last form of life to be placed on the Earth. From the Original Man came the A-nish-i-na’be people. - Edward Beton-Banai”

The Lac du Flambeau Band of Lake Superior Chippewa (Ojibwe) Indians have inhabited the Lac du Flambeau area since 1745 when Chief Kishkemun (Sharpened Stone) led the Band to the area. This was three decades before the birth of the United States and more than a century before Wisconsin became a state. The Band acquired the name Waaswaagoning (Lac du Flambeau) from its gathering practice of harvesting fish at night by torchlight. The name Lac du Flambeau, or Lake of the Torches, refers to this practice and was given to the Band by the French traders and trappers who visited the area. The Ojibwe had minimal impact on the ecology of the area. They lived in harmony with the land and lakes, using only what they needed to live and survive. They used the lakes for travel, trade, communication, hunting, trapping, fishing, and during times of war. The fur trade era had opened the Lake Superior region, including Lac du Flambeau, to settlement, and as more and more settlers moved in the demand for the region’s natural resources expanded accordingly. In response, the United States government expropriated vast tracts of Ojibwe land through cession treaties, promising small amounts of money, schooling, equipment, and the like in exchange for land. The Lac du Flambeau Indian Reservation was established through the Treaties of 1842 and 1854 with the United States. In 1863, three townships were set aside to serve as the Lac du Flambeau Reservation, and another township was added in 1866, increasing the Reservation to its current size. The area was continually logged in the following years and became a tourist destination for families from southern Wisconsin and Illinois around the turn of the century. The Reservation consists of 260 lakes with 17,897 surface acres of water, which is believed to be the third highest concentration of lakes in the world. In addition to the lakes, there are approximately 71 miles of creeks, rivers, and streams and 24,000 acres of wetlands; altogether, surface waters cover nearly one-half (48%) of the Lac du Flambeau Reservation. Finally, 41,733 acres of forested upland leave only 3,000 acres for residential, manufacturing and commercial development.

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The Lac du Flambeau Band of Lake Superior Chippewa Indians is governed by a twelve-member Tribal Council elected by tribal membership. The Tribal Council follows an established Constitution and By-laws that gives the Tribe the right to regulate through adopted codes and ordinances and negotiate with federal, state and local governments or agencies. The Lac du Flambeau Band recognizes the following vision, mission and value statements:

“We shall strive to improve the quality of life for the Lac du Flambeau Band of Lake Superior

Ojibwe Nation.” Vision Statement The Lac du Flambeau Tribal Council shall have the constitutional duty, working together to maintain a sustainable community for tribal members, descendants and future generations. The tribal government shall improve the quality of life by following a cultural and well-balanced approach within all tribal programs and entities. Healthy lifestyles, wellness, family values and spirituality shall guide our long-range planning and implementation. The tribal government shall protect our sovereignty and treaties, while moving forward for present and future generations. Value Statement The Lac du Flambeau Band of Lake Superior Chippewa Indian’s are committed to following our ancestors seven teachings. These values will be used to carry out our mission and vision for our community so that we can move forward in a good way for the seventh generation. They are:

Honesty- to walk through life with integrity is honesty Humility- to know that you are a sacred part of creation is to know humility Love- to know love is to know peace Wisdom- to cherish knowledge is to know wisdom Courage- to face life with bravery is to know courage Respect- to honor all creation is to have respect Truth- is to know all of these things

In order to fulfill the obligations to our treaty resources, community members and property, the Lac du Flambeau Band of Lake Superior Chippewa Indians must develop mitigation strategies to effectively reduce impacts from natural and man-made events.

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Part 1: Planning Process (Element A)

IntroductionFortheLacduFlambeauTribe,waterispartoftheirdailyexistence.Abouthalfoftheirreservationisopenwaterorwetlandsandwaternourishesboththepeopleandthenaturalresourcesonthereservation.FortheOjibwepeople,naturalresourcesareculturalresourcesandwaterplaysavitalroleinensuringthatthecommunitycontinuestothrivewithachangingclimate.Thedevelopmentofthisplanbroughtthetribalcommunity,tribalstaffmembers,andthetriballeadershiptogethertoidentifykeyhazardsofconcernfortheLacduFlambeauReservation,assesstherelativeriskofthosehazards,anddevelopthemitigationactions.Theextensiveengagementoccurredoverthecourseoftheprojecttohelpensurethattheactionsarebotheffectiveandrepresentthegoals,priorities,andperspectivesofthetribalcommunity.Thislengthyandmulti-facetedengagementapproachalsohelpedbuildthetribalstaffcapacitytoimplementtheactionsidentifiedinthisplanandcontinuetoidentifyandimplementmitigationactionsinthefuture.The18-monthplanningprocessculminatesinthisdocument,anupdatetothe2006planthattheLacduFlambeauTribecompletedincollaborationwithVillasCounty.Sincethatinitialplan,theStateofWisconsin,VilasCounty,IronCounty,andanumberofNativeAmericanTribesintheregionhavecompletedhazardmitigationplans.AsdeterminedbythefederalDisasterMitigationActof2000,mitigationplansmustbecompletedandupdatedonafive-yearcyclewiththegoalofensuringthatapprovedtribalmitigationplansmeettherequirementsoftheStaffordActandTitle44oftheCodeofFederalRegulations(CFR)1.AnadoptFEMA-approvedhazardmitigationplansisaconditionreceivingcertaintypesofnon-emergencydisasterassistance.

DISASTERMITIGATIONACTOF2000TheLacduFlambeauAllHazardsMitigationPlanhasbeendevelopedinaccordancewiththeDisasterMitigationActof2000(DMA2K).OnOctober30,2000,DMA2KwassignedintolawbytheU.S.Congressinanattempttostemthelossesfromdisasters,reducefuturepublicandprivateexpenditures,andtospeedupresponseandrecoveryfromdisasters.ThisAct(PublicLaw106-390)amendedtheRobertT.StaffordReliefandEmergencyAssistanceAct.ThefollowingisasummaryofthepartsofDMA2Kthatpertaintolocalgovernmentandtribalorganizations:

• TheActestablishesarequirementforlocalgovernmentsandtribalorganizationstoprepareanAllHazardsMitigationPlaninordertobeeligibleforfundingfromFEMAthroughthePre-DisasterMitigationAssistanceProgramandtheHazardMitigationGrantProgram.

1FEMA.TribalMitigationPlanReviewGuide.2018.FP206-112-01OMBCollectionNumber:1660-0062

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• TheActestablishesarequirementthatnaturalhazardssuchastornados,floods,andwildfiresneedtobeaddressedintheriskassessmentandvulnerabilityanalysispartsoftheAllHazardsMitigationPlan.Manmadehazardssuchashazardouswastespillsareencouraged,butnotrequired,tobeaddressed.

• TheActauthorizesuptosevenpercentofHazardMitigationGrantProgramfundsavailabletoastateafterafederaldisastertobeusedfordevelopmentofstate,local,andtribalorganizationAllHazardsMitigationPlans.

• TheActestablishesNovember1,2004asthedatebywhichlocalgovernmentsandtribalorganizationsaretoprepareandadopttheirrespectiveplansinordertobeeligiblefortheFEMAHazardMitigationGrantProgramandPre-DisasterMitigationProgram.

PlanningProcessThe18-monthplanningprocessincludedthefollowingfourkeyphases.

• PhaseI:CommunityEngagementandIdentificationofKeyHazards(Months1-6);• PhaseII:AnalysisofCurrentandFutureRisk(Months7-11);• PhaseIII:DevelopmentofMitigationActions(Months12-14);and• PhaseIV:PlanReviewandAdoption(Months15-18).

PhaseI:CommunityEngagementandIdentificationofKeyHazards–Thisphasefocusedonbroadanddeepcommunityengagement.Thisincludedamulti-facetedapproachthatreachedouttocommunitymembersfortheirinputinidentifyingkeyhazardsofconcern.

• TheTribebegantheprocessbyconductingdepartmentinterviewstoinitiallyscopethehazardsthataremostrelevanttotheTribe.Thisincludedinterviewswiththefollowingdepartments:EmergencyManagement,NaturalResourcesProgram,LandManagement,Water&Sewer,StateofEmergencyCoordinator,PublicHealth,TribalHistoricPreservationOffice,andWaterResources.

• TheHistoricPreservationOffice,withsupportfromthenaturalresourceandemergencymanagementdepartments,conductedinterviewswithtribalelders.Theseinterviewsprovidedanopportunityfortheelderstosharelocalandtraditionalknowledgeswiththeofficeabouthistoricconditions,observationsofextremeweatherandhowchangingclimateconditionswerealreadyaffectingthereservation,thenaturalresources,andthepeoplethatdependonthoseresources.

• Theprojectcoordinatoralsohostedtwotalkingcircleswithtribalyouthfocusedonextremeweathereventsandclimatechange.

• Theprojectteamdevelopedanddistributedacommunitysurvey(seeAppendixB)thatwassharedbothelectronicallythroughthetribe’ssocialmediachannelsandwebsite,butalsophysicallyatalargeannualcommunityfestivalonApril26th.Thispresentationhelpedgenerateinterestinbeingapartofscopingtheplan(s).Thetribereceived54completed

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surveysfromthecommunityandelevencompletedsurveystribalstaff(AppendixB).Theprojectteamthenreviewedandanalyzedtheseconcernsalongwithhistoricclimateandweatherdatatodevelopalistofkeyhazardstobeanalyzedindetailforthecommunity.

• Inauniquesynergywithanongoingandseparatelyfundedclimatechangevulnerabilityandadaptationplanningprocess,theTribeinvestedinworkingwithoneofthetribe’sspiritualleaderstodevelopalogofortheproject.TheTribe’sResilienceInitiativeLogohelpsthecommunityunderstandcurrentandexistingconditionscanthreatenthecommunityandthevalueofinvestinginhazardmitigationtobothreducethepotentialimpactsofthoseevents,butalsoconsiderthehazardmitigationplanaspartofabroaderandholisticapproachtoenhancetheresilienceofthecommunity.

• TheprojectteamheldmonthlymeetingswiththeTribalEmergencyPlanningCommittee.Mostofthesemeetingswere2-3hourslongandinvolveddiscussionandadviceonboththeHazardMitigationPlanandthebroaderResilienceInitiative.TheworkshopsbroughttogetherbothTEPCmembersandsomeotherkeystakeholderstodiscussprioritizationofhazards,identificationofrisk,anddevelopmentofmitigationactions.Theseincludedmeetingsonthefollowingdates:

o January25th,2018o February15th,2018o March22nd,2018o May24th,2018(full-dayworkshop)o June21st,2018o August23rd,2018o September27th,2018o October25th,2018o November14th,2018(full-dayworkshop)o January24th,2019o February28th,2019o March28th,2019(full-dayworkshop)

• TheprojectteamprovidedupdatestotheTribalCouncilthroughouttheprocess.TheseincludedpresentationsonDecember5th,2017;May24th,2018;andMarch28th,2019.

• Aone-dayworkshopwasusedtobringthemembersoftheTribalEmergencyPlanningCommitteetogethertoreviewtheresultsofthesurveyandprovideotherinputinthefinalidentificationandselectionkeyhazardstobeincludedinthehazardmitigationplanningprocess.

Figure1:TheLacduFlambeauTribalResilienceInitiativeLogosymbolizinghowprotectingthecommunityfromhazardsandchangingclimateconditionscanensurearesilientfutureforthetribe.

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PhaseII:AnalysisofCurrentandFutureRiskTheanalysisofcurrentandfuturerisksreliedonacombinationofdatasources.TheprojectteambroughtinandutilizedhistoricweatherobservationsaswellasfutureclimateprojectionsprovidedbytheUniversityofWisconsinandanalyzedbytheGreatLakesIntegratedSciencesandAssessmentCenter(GLISA),oneofNOAA’sRegionallyIntegratedSciencesandAssessmentCenters,locatedattheUniversityofMichigan.Thisexplicitqualitativeandquantitativeconsiderationoffutureconditions,includinglong-termchangesinweatherpatterns,willhelpensurethatthetribeispreparingfornotonlythehazardsofthepast,butalsothehazardsofthefuture(seePart2:ChangingClimateConditionsformoredetails).

PhaseIII:DevelopmentofMitigationActionsDevelopmentofhazardmitigationsactionsstartedwiththecollectionandreviewofexistingtribalprograms,projects,andinitiativesaswellasareviewoftheactionsidentifiedintheTribe’s2008HazardMitigationPlan.Theprojectteamthencompiledlistsofactionsbeingusedinothercommunitiestoaddresssimilarhazards.TheseactionswerereviewedbytheTribalEmergencyResponseCommitteeandupdatedtoensurerelevanceandeffectivenesswithinthecommunity.Theprojectteamusedadaylongworkshopwithtribalstaffandkeycommunitymemberstofurtherrefinethoseactions,identifyingtheleaddepartments,projectcosts,andkeyopportunitiesforimplementation.

PhaseIV:PlanReviewAcompletedraftofthehazardplanwasprovidedtotribalstaff,thetriballeadership,andthecommunityasawholeforreview.Commentsreceivedduringthatreviewperiodwerereviewedandtheplanwasupdated,asappropriate,torespondtooraddressthecomments.TheupdatedplanwassubmittedtoFEMAforreviewandapprovalbeforebeingpresentedtoTribalCouncilforadoption.

TribalEmergencyPlanningCommitteeTheTribalEmergencyPlanningCommittee(TEPC)consistedof36staffmembers.Thisgroupservedasthecoreadvisorsforthisproject,aswellasaseparatelyfundedclimatechangeresilienceproject.TheTEPCmetmonthlythroughouttheprojectandprovidedinputandguidanceduringeachphaseofthedevelopmentoftheHazardMitigationPlan.Oncethekeyhazardswereidentified,thegroupsplitintofoursub-committeesfocusedonhazardsrelatedtooneofthefollowingareas.:1)communitysafetyandsecurity;2)extremeweatherevents,wildfire,andinfrastructure;3)publicandcommunityhealth;and4)naturalandculturalresources.Thesesub-committeesreviewedandhelpedupdatethedraftdescriptionsofthehazardsandwerecloselyinvolvedinthedevelopmentofhazardmitigationactionstoreducethepotentialimpactsofeachofthesehazards.Theywerealso,asalargergroup,involvedinthefinalreviewofthecompletedhazardmitigationplan.

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Table1:MembersoftheTribalEmergencyPlanningCommittee(TEPC)thatwereinvolvedinthepreparationoftheall-hazardmitigationplan.Sub-committeeinvolvementisshowninthefinalfourcolumns.

PublicEngagementProcessForthisplanningprocess,the“Public”isdefinedasanyonelivinginandaroundthereservation.Thefocusoftheengagementwasonthreekeyaudiences,tribalmembership(representingthecommunity),tribalstaffmembersinkeydepartments(asrepresentedbytheTEPC),andtriballeadership(asrepresentedbytheTribalCouncil).Thebroaderpublicwasgivennumerousopportunitiestoparticipateinthedevelopmentofthisplan.AllopportunitieswereadvertisedthroughtheTribe’sactivesocialmediachannels;thetribe’swebsite,newsletters,andflyers;andpresentationstotheTribalCouncil.Keyopportunitiesforengagementincluded:

• Surveyofkeyhazardsofconcern(seehttp://www.ldftribe.com/resilience,theon-linesurveyandresponses(AppendixB),andtheboothsandpresentationsatthe2018youthforum);

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• Interviewswithdepartmentleadsandtribalelders(notesfromthemeetingsareconsideredconfidentialtribalinformation–butrelevantsummarieswereincorporatedintotheidentificationofhazards);

• Invitationtoparticipateintherelevantsub-committees;• OpportunitiesforpubliccommentatTribalCouncilmeetings;and• Reviewofthedrafthazardmitigationplan(seesurveyquestions/responses,AppendixB).

TheTribalEmergencyManagementCoordinatoralsomadehimselfavailabletoreceivecommentsoutsideoftheseprescribedopportunities.

InvolvingNeighboringJurisdictionsTherewasatwo-waychannelofcommunicationandparticipationwithneighboringjurisdictions.TribalstaffmemberswereinvitedtoandparticipatedintherecentupdateoftheVilasCountyhazardmitigationplan.Attheseevents,TribalStaffpromotedanddiscussedthedevelopmentofthishazardmitigationplanandrequestedinput.Thesurroundingjurisdictionswereinvitedtoparticipateinthecommunityforumaroundthereleaseofthedraftplanandencouragedtoprovideinputonthedraftplanthroughtheuseofeitheranon-linesurveyorbyprovidingdirectcommentstotheTribe’sEmergencyManagementCoordinator.

BuildingoffExistingConditionsandNewResearchLocal,state,andnationaldatasetsforexistinghazardswerereviewedandanalyzedforinclusioninthishazardmitigationplan.Localknowledgewasusedtogroundtruth,validate,refine,andupdatethelocaldatasetsandtherelativefrequencyofhazardsbasedontheTribe’shistoricexperiencewiththoserisks.Inaddition,theteam,ledbytheGreatLakesIntegratedSciencesandAssessmentCenterattheUniversityofMichigananalyzednewdownscaledclimateprojectionfromtheUniversityofWisconsinforwatershedswithin40milesofthereservationboundaries.Theensembleaverageforprojectionsunderthe“business-as-usual”climatescenario2wasusedtoinformthefutureriskprofileforeachhazard.Eachhazardwasindividuallyscoredbasedonanumberoffactorsandtheoverallriskscorewasweightedbasedonwhetherthathazardislikelytobecomemorefrequentorintenseinthefuture,remainthesame,ordecreaseinfrequency,severity,ormagnitude(seePart3:AssessmentApproach/Methodologyfordetails).Onebasicexampleisthatthefrequencyofextremelycoldconditionsisprojectedtodecreasewhilethefrequencyofextremeheateventsisprojectedtoincrease.Fundingforthisspecificanddetailedanalysisofclimatedatawasprovidedprimarilyaspartofasimultaneousbutseparateprojectevaluatingtheclimaterelatedvulnerabilityandoptionsforadaptation.Inanefforttoleverageotheron-goingplanningactivitiesandprograms,theprojectteamreviewedanumberofexistingtribalpoliciesandprograms.Thisreviewincluded:theState2“Business-as-usual”isdefinedasthehigherclimatechangescenarioscurrentlyinusetermedRCP8.5.Emissionsofgreenhousegassesinthisscenariocontinuetoriseatcurrentratesandresultinaradiativeforcingof8.5WattsperMetersquaredbytheendofthecentury.

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ofWisconsin’s2016HazardMitigationPlan;theVilasCounty2006and2013AllHazardMitigationPlans;IronCounty’s2018HazardMitigationPlan;theLacCourteOreillesBandoftheLakeSuperiorOjibweHazardMitigationPlan;theSokaogonChippewaCommunityAllHazardsMitigationPlan;theTownofLacduFlambeau’sComprehensivePlan;ItalsoincludedTribalOrdinancesandPlanssuchas:

• StateofEmergencyCoordinationplan;• EmergencyManagementOrdinance;• WetlandManagementProgram;• CodeComplianceOrdinance;• LandUseOrdinance;• EmergencyOperationsPlan;• ZoningOrdinance;• ForestManagementPlan;and• WildRiceRestorationPlan;

KeepingthePlanCurrentandFutureUpdatesTheTribeiscommittedtoimplementingtheseactionsasfundingandotherresourcesbecomeavailable.Monitoring-EachmemberoftheTEPCcommitteeandher/hisdepartmenthascommittedtomovingforwardwithatleastonehazardmitigationaction(seePartIV:PriorityActions).Foreveryactionidentifiedintheplan,theTribehasidentifiedadepartmentalleadaswellastheimplementationtimeframe.Thedepartmentsidentified,whohelpedcreatetheactionswillberesponsibleformonitoringtheirprogressonimplementation.Evaluation-TheTribeiscommittedtomaintainingfundingforaTribalEmergencyManagementCoordinatorposition.Thispositionwillworkwiththedepartmentleadstomonitorandtrackprogressonimplementingeachoftheidentifiedactions(withafocusontheactionsthatwereidentifiedasimmediateandnear-termpriorities).WiththecontinuedsupportofthecrossdepartmentTEPC,theEmergencyManagementCoordinatorwillworkcloselywiththedepartmentleadstoevaluatetheopportunitiesandbarrierstoimplementingactions.TheNaturalResources,PublicHealth,Roads,WaterandSewer,Housing,andHistoricPreservationdepartmentswillreportannuallytotheTribalCouncilonprogressandon-goingfundingneedsaspartoftheannualbudgetingandappropriationsprocessoftheTribe.Thesepresentationswillalsoprovideanopportunityforon-goingpubliccommentandengagement.Updating–TheTribecommitstoreviewingandupdatingthisplaninitsentiretyeveryfiveyearswiththenextupdatetobecompletedin2024.Throughthemonitoringandevaluationprocess,eachdepartmentresponsibleforimplementingthehazardmitigationactionswillmaintainacurrentlistofon-goingprogressonimplementingactions.Eachdepartmentalsocommitstorefiningandaddingtothatlistasprojectsarecompletedandnewactionsareadded.Inaddition,ifandwhenadisasterdoesoccur,theTribeiscommittedtoreviewingtheconditionsthatledtothedisaster,determininghowthe

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investmentinexistingactionshelpedreducetheextentofthedisaster,andidentifyingadditionalactionsthatcouldbeusedtofurtherreducethemagnitudeofthoseimpactsinthefuture.NowthattheTribehasinvestedindevelopingitsfirstClimateSmartHazardMitigationPlan,futureupdateswillbemoreefficientandeasiertocomplete.PublicParticipation-Thepublicwillbeincludedthroughtheongoinguseofsocialmediatobeinformedofprogressonactionsimplementationaswellasprovideanavenueforidentifyingadditionalandlocallyspecificareasofconcern.AnnualpresentationstotheTribalCouncilaswellasupdatesthatthelargecommunityYouthForumwillprovideopportunitiesforcommunityengagementandforon-goingeducationandoutreachtothecommunityonhazardpreparedness.TheEmergencyManagementCoordinatorwillalsobeavailabletoreceiveinputfromthecommunity.

Part 2: Planning Area

GeographyandClimateTheLacduFlambeauTribalReservationisthefocusforthedevelopmentofthehazardmitigationplan.TheReservation(blacksquareFigure2andFigure3)is86,630acres(144squaremiles)locatedinNorthCentralWisconsinprimarilyinVilasCounty.

Figure2:LocationoftheLacduFlambeauReservationinNorthCentralWisconsin.Reservationshownastheblacksquare.ResilienceInitiativeplanningareadesignationshowninpurple.Relevanttreatyareasshowninmapinset.

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Figure3:LacduFlambeauReservationarea(blacksquare)andsurroundinglandscape.ThereservationboundaryisthefocusoftheHazardMitigationPlanningeffort.

WoodyWetlands,24,395

OpenWater,18,395

ForestDeciduous,17,319

ForestMixed,12,143

EmergentWetlands,4,720

Dev.(Open),3,799

ForestEvergreen,2,461

Shrub/Scrub,2,433

D…C…G

2011 Land Cover by Class - Lac du Flambeau Reservation

Figure4:LandcoverbytypefortheLacduFlambeauReservation.Valueslistedaretotalnumberofacresbylandcovertypein2011.AllDatafromthe2011NationalLandCoverDataset(2014version).Foundat:https://www.mrlc.gov/data.

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Table2:LandcoverbytypefortheLacduFlambeauReservation.Valueslistedaretotalnumberofacresbylandcovertypein2011.AllDatafromthe2011NationalLandCoverDataset(2014version).Foundat:https://www.mrlc.gov/data

Onthereservation,39,403acresaretriballyowned,18,532acresareindividuallyallotted,and28,665acresarefeeland.Nearly50%ofthereservationisopenwaterorwoodedwetlandsthatinclude260lakes,65milesofstreams,lakes,andrivers.Theremaininglandcoverisprimarilyforestwithsomecultivatedorlightlyormoderatelydevelopedareas.

Class Acres PercentofTotal

WoodyWetlands 24,395 28.18OpenWater 18,395 21.25ForestDeciduous 17,319 20.00

ForestMixed 12,143 14.03

EmergentWetlands 4,720 5.45

Dev.(Open) 3,799 4.39

ForestEvergreen 2,461 2.84

Shrub/Scrub 2,433 2.81

Dev.(Low) 298 0.34

CultivatedCrops/Fields 284 0.33

Grassland/Herbaceous 246 0.28Dev.(Med) 56 0.06Dev.(High) 14 0.02Pasture/Hay 11 0.01

TOTAL 86,573 100

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Figure5:LandCoverandLandUseintheLacduFlambeauRegion,2011.

Population

PeopleForthemostpart,tribalmembersliveinandaroundtheTownofLacduFlambeauorthe“towncenter”.Thoughtherearetribalresidencesscatteredthroughoutthereservation.ThehighestdensityofdevelopmentisintheTownareaorimmediatelysoutheastofthereservationinMinnequa.Therearecurrently3,415tribalmembers.Thereare860tribalmembersundertheageof18and2,555are18-yearsoldorolder.BasedontheAmericanCommunitySurvey5-yearEstimates(2013-2017),theLacduFlambeauReservation,WIhasatotalpopulationof3,406(1,634Male,1,772Female)3,1,761identifythemselvesasAmericanIndianorAlaskanNative.Approximately17%ofthepopulationhassomesortofdisability,24%areover65yearsold,and8%bothhaveadisabilityandareover65yearsold,allofwhichcanenhancevulnerabilitytohazards.

3https://www.census.gov/tribal/?aianihh=1825

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Employment,Economy,andEducationOftheestimated2,783peopleover16yearsoldonthereservation,1,522areconsideredinthelaborforce(about55%)withanestimated13.3%unemploymentrate.Morethanhalf(about800people)areemployedbytheTribalGovernment4oranothergovernmentagencyorservice.Morethan50%oftheestimated1,682householdsmakelessthan$35,000ayear.Forallfamilies,17.8%fallbelowthepovertylevelforincomeand45.2%offamilieswithchildrenundertheageof18fallinthiscategory.Thoughlowerincomesareknowntodecreasepreparednessforandincreasetheimpactsofdisastersonfamilieswithlowersocio-economicstatus5,thisdoesnothoweverfactorinthetribalculturalconnectionstothelandscapeanduseofnaturalresourcesforfood.About13%ofthepopulationdoesnothavehealthinsurancecoverage.Approximately700membersoftheschool-agedcommunity(3yearsandolder)areenrolledinschooland88%ofthecommunity(25-yearsandolder)hasattainedatleasthighschooldegreewith25%havingcompletedabachelor’sdegreeorhigher.

HistoricClimateObservationNorthernpartsofWisconsinexperiencefrigidwintersandgenerallycoolsummerswithafewdaysofhottemperatures.Theareaexperiencesavarietyofdifferentairmassesrangingfromcontinentalpolarfromthenorthandmaritimetropicalfromthesouth.Theseairmassescontributetothebitterlycoldtemperaturesinthewinter(i.e.,continentalpolarclimate)aswellaswarmandhumidsummers(i.e.,maritimetropicalclimate).Theseconditionsdeterminethetemperaturesandamountsofprecipitationintheregion.InLacduFlambeau,WI,thehistoricmonthlyaveragetemperaturesvaryfrom10.9°FinJanuaryto65.8°FinJuly.Inwinter(December,January,February),themonthlyaveragetemperatureis13.6°Fwithanaverageof190.2daysperyeardaysbelow32°F.Themonthlyaveragetemperatureis63.8°Finthesummer(June,July,andAugust),withanaverageof2.3daysperyearabove90°F.ThetotalannualprecipitationforLacduFlambeauis32.1inches,withmajorityoftheprecipitationoccurringfromJunetoAugust.Snowstormsarethemainwinterhazardinthearea,withanaverageof108inchesofsnowfall(allnumbersbasedontheperiod1980-2010)6.Highwinds,excessiveprecipitation,andelectricalstormscancauseoccasionaldamagetoinfrastructurearoundthearea.4http://witribes.wi.gov/docview.asp?docid=19082&locid=575SAMHSA.2017.DisasterTechnicalAssistanceCenterSupplementalResearchBulletin.GreaterImpact:HowDisastersAffectPeopleofLowSocioeconomicStatus.July2017.SubstanceAbuseandMentalHealthServicesAdministration.Available:https://www.samhsa.gov/sites/default/files/programs_campaigns/dtac/srb-low-ses.pdf6Frankson,R.,K.Kunkel,andS.Champion,2017:WisconsinStateClimateSummary.NOAATechnicalReportNESDIS149-WI,4pp.https://statesummaries.ncics.org/wiLocalClimatologicalDataPublicationforGreenBay,WI(KGRB).NationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA)NationalCentersforEnvironmentalInformation(NCEI)https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/lcd.htmlGlobalHistoricalClimatologyNetworkDaily(GHCN-D)StationObservationsforMinocqua,WI.NOAANationalCentersforEnvironmentalInformation.https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ghcn-daily-description;http://glisa.umich.edu/station/C00475516

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Table3:SummaryofkeyhistoricclimatevariablesfortheLacduFlambeauRegion.BasedonthecurrentNOAAClimateNormaltimeperiod(1981-2010),source:https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/land-based-station-data/land-based-datasets/climate-normals/1981-2010-normals-data.

Variable ValueAnnualMeanTemperature 39.9°FAnnualMinimumTemperature 28.4°FAnnualMaximumTemperature 51.4°FDaysabove90°F 2.3daysDaysbelow32°F 190.2daysTotalPrecipitation 32.1”AverageNumberofDaysperYearthatExceed1”Precipitation 4.5daysAverageSnowfall 108”

ChangingClimateConditionsTheclimateoftheregionisalreadychanging.Averageannualtemperatureshaveincreased3.1°Fsince1951.Temperatureobservationsshowincreasesintemperaturesduringallseasons.Projectionsunderthe“business-as-usual”climatechangescenario(RCP8.5)downscaled,averaged,andaveragedspecificallyfortheareathatincludeswatershedswithin40milesofthereservationboundariesshowprojectionsofincreasingtemperaturesannuallyandinallseasons(Table4).Averageannualtemperatures,aswellasspring,summer,andfalltemperatures,mayincreasebymorethan10degreesFahrenheit.Annualprecipitationhasdecreasedinthesummerbutincreasedintheotherthreeseasons.Projectionsunderthe“business-as-usual”climatechangescenario(RCP8.5)forthesameareashowageneraltrendtowardsincreasingannualprecipitationwithhighvariability(Table4).Projectedincreasesinaverageannualtemperature(

Figure6)andprecipitation(Figure7)areshownbelow.Table4:Summaryofobservedchangesintemperatureandprecipitationfortheregion(column2)alongwithprojectedchanges(mid-centurycolumn3;endofCenturycolumn4)fortheresilienceprojectboundaryunderthe"business-as-usual"climatescenario(RCP8.5)..

Variable Observations(1951-2017)

Mid-Century(2040-2059)

EndofCentury(2080-2099)

AnnualTemperature +3.1°F +3.0°Fto+5.3°F +5.4°Fto+10.0°F

WinterTemperature +4.7°F +2.2°Fto+4.8°F +5.1°Fto+8.6°F

SpringTemperature +3.2°F +1.9°Fto+5.6°F +5.2°Fto+10.9°F

SummerTemperature +1.9°F +5.0°Fto+7.1°F +8.4°Fto+12.4°F

FallTemperature +2.5°F +2.3°Fto+5.9°F +4.2°Fto+12.3°F

AnnualPrecipitation +1.8in. -17%to+103% -1%to+239%

WinterPrecipitation +0.8in. 0%to+103% -95%to200%

SpringPrecipitation +0.6in. -26%to+69% -1%to+129%

SummerPrecipitation -1.0in. -23%to+16% -31%to+44%

FallPrecipitation +1.5in. -19%to+22% -1%to+50%

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Figure6:ProjectedchangesinAverageAnnualTemperaturefortheregionaroundtheLacduFlambeauRegionbasedonthe"business-as-usual"climatescenario(RCP8.5)forthemiddleofthecentury(leftpanel)andendofthecentury(rightpanel).

Figure7:ProjectedchangesinAverageAnnualPrecipitationfortheregionaroundtheLacduFlambeauRegionbasedonthe"business-as-usual"climatescenario(RCP8.5)forthemiddleofthecentury(leftpanel)andendofthecentury(rightpanel).

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Figure8:Summaryofprojectedchangesintemperatureandprecipitationbyseasonbythe2050s(2040-2059)usingthe“business-as-usual”climateprojections(RCP8.5).DataisbasedondownscaledclimateprojectionsdevelopedbytheUniversityofWisconsinandanalyzedbytheGreatLakesIntegratedSciencesandAssessmentCenterattheUniversityofMichigan.Therangeofvaluesrepresentthehighestandlowestprojectionsaveragechangefromtheensembleofclimatemodels.

Figure9:Summaryofprojectedseasonalclimatechangesby2050includingincreasesintemperatures,varyingprecipitationpatterns,decreasesinsnowfall,alongergrowingseason,andmorehotsummerdays.CalculationscompletedbytheGreatLakesIntegratedSciencesandAssessmentCenterattheUniversityofMichiganfortheResilienceInitiativeProjectBoundary.

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NaturalandCulturalResourcesThenaturalresourcesinandaroundthereservationplayanimportantroleinthecommunity’sphysical,emotional,mental,andeconomichealthandvitality.FortheLacduFlambeauTribe,naturalresourcesareculturalresourcesandanintegralpartofwhatsupportsthecommunityandhelpsitthrive.Throughoutthecommunityengagementprocess,tribalmembers,staff,andleadershipdeterminedthatthesurvivalandcontinuedexistenceofthehabitatsandkeyplantandanimalspeciesthathavebeenpartoftheLacduFlambeaucultureforthousandsofyearsaremorethanacriticalresource,theyarepartoftheidentityandhealthofthecommunity.Extremeweathereventsandchangingclimateconditions,inparticularextendedperiodsofdroughtandmoreextensiveorintensewildfires,havethepotentialtocreateplantandanimalepidemicsthatmayincreaseintheprevalenceofinvasivespeciesonthelandscapeandleaddirectlytothelossofthesespecies.

Figure10:Manoomin(WildRice)harvestareasinandaroundthereservation.Extremeweatherevents,changingclimateconditions,andhumandevelopmenthaveaffectedthelocationandabundanceofwildricecropsinrecentyears(datafromtheGreatLakesInter-TribalFisheriesCouncil(GLIFWC).

Thepotentialreductionandlossofkeynaturalresources,suchasManoomin(WildRice-Figure10)isakeyhazardfacingtheLacduFlambeauTribe.

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CriticalFacilitiesCriticalcommunityfacilitiesincludebothemergencyresponsefacilitiessuchastheFireStation,policeheadquartersandhealthclinic,butalsosignificantbuildingssuchastheCasinoandTribalCenterthatprovideavarietyofservicestothecommunityincludingactingasshelterhubsandwarmingand/orcoolingcentersduringextremeweatherevents.FacilitiesalsoincludetheHeadstartbuilding,dentalclinic,school,andnursinghomethatprovidecriticalservicestothecommunity.

Figure11:CriticalfacilitieswithintheLacduFlambeauReservation.

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Table5:CriticalfacilitieswithintheLacduFlambeauReservation.

Name Address EstimatedValueAbinoojiyag(Youth)Center 13708YouthCenter

Lane $375,000

BoysDorm 873OldAbeRoad FamilyResourceCenter 533PeacePipeRoad $280,000 FishHatchery 2500OldAbeRoad GeorgeWBrownJr.MuseumandCulturalCenter- 603PeacePipeRoad $3,000,000

GLITC-GreatLakesInter-TribalCouncil 2952WisconsinStateHighway47 $500,000

K-CareNursingHome 12399WarpathLane LacduFlambeauCommunityWellnessCenter- 125OldAbeRoad $6,000,000

LacduFlambeauFireDepartment 614WildRice LacduFlambeauPublicLibrary 622PeacePipeRoad LacduFlambeauSchoolDistrict#1 2899HWY47S LacduFlambeauWaterandSewer 2650CemeteryRd. LakeoftheTorchesCasino/Hotel 510OldAbeRd $100,000,000 LdFCountryMarketGasStation 509OldAbeRoad NaturalResourcesBuilding 1101OldAbeRd PeterChristensenDentalClinic 128OldAbeRd PeterChristiansenHealthCareCenter 125OldAbeRoad $1,300,000 TribalCenter 418LittlePines $4,000,000 TribalHousingDevelopment 554ChicogSt TribalPlanningandInformationCenter 602PeacePipeRoad $500,000 TribalPoliceDepartment 623PeacePipeRoad $500,000 WaterTreatmentPlant 2450ThorofareRoad

ZaasijiwanHeadstart 2899WisconsinStateHighway47 $280,000

Part 3: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (Element B)

HazardIdentificationOverviewThehazardidentificationprocessbeganwiththeextensivecommunityengagementprocess(describedinSectionX.X).Itstartedwithconsiderationofthecontinuedrelevanceofthehazardsidentifiedinthe2006VilasCountyAllHazardsMitigationPlanthatincludedtheTribe.Thosehazards,alongwithanumberofnewandemergingthreatssuchaslossofnaturalresources,schoolandworkplaceviolence,andtheillegaldrugcrisiswereevaluatedbasedontheircurrentrelevancetotheTribe.

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Foreachhazard,thedescriptionsbelowincludediscussionofthebackgroundonthehazard,ananalysisofhistoricconditions,andavulnerabilityandriskassessment.

AssessmentApproach/MethodologyAmulti-factorquantitativeriskrankingsystemthatincorporatedlocalexpertriskknowledgeandexperiencewasusedtocalculatetheseverityofidentifiedhazardriskintheLacduFlambeauplanningarea.Hazardrisksselectedforinclusioninthisplanhavebeenpriorityorderedinkeepingwiththeresultsofthisassessmentsystemandprocess.

AssessmentFactorsAssessmentfactorsandthedescriptionsofrelevantscoringforassessmentandrankingofhazards.ProbabilityAssessesthelikelihoodoffutureoccurrencebasedonhistoricalexperience.Measuresinclude:

● 0=notpossible● 1=Rare(<1eventper100years)● 2=Low(1eventevery21to100years)● 3=Moderate(1eventevery6to20years)● 4=High(1eventevery1to5years)● 5=Severe(1ormoreeventsperyear)

TrendAssesseswhetherhazardlikelihoodisexpectedtochangeovertime,andwhetherthatchangewillbeanincreaseordecreaseinfrequency.Thisfactorisbasedonananalysisofincreasingordecreasingprobabilitytrends,tribalstaffexperienceandknowledge,changesindemographicanddevelopmentpatterns,climatechangeprojections,andotherinformationasavailable.Measuresinclude:

● 1=FrequencyorImpactswilllikelydecrease● 2=Frequencyorimpactswilllikelystaythesame● 3=Frequencyorimpactswilllikelyincrease

HealthandPublicSafetyAssessesthenumberofpeoplewhowilllikelybesickened,injured,orkilledduringanaverageoccurrenceofthehazard,orthatwillsuffersomeformofpost-traumaticstress.Measuresinclude:

● 0=Nohealthorsafetyimpacts● 1=Low(<20sick/injured/PTSD;<3dead)● 2=Moderate(21-50sick/injured/PTSD;3-9dead)● 3=High(>50sick/injured/PTSD;>10dead)

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HomeandPropertyDamageAssessesthepercentageofhomesandprivateresidenceslikelytobedamagedordestroyedduringanaverageoccurrenceofthehazard.Measuresinclude:

● 0=Nohomesimpacted● 1=Low(1-10homesimpacted)● 2=Moderate(11-35homesimpacted)● 3=High(>35homesimpacted)

LivelihoodImpactsAssessesthenumberofpeoplewhowilllikelylosehouseholdincomeasaresultoftheevent.Measuresinclude:

● 0=N/A● 1=Low(<10people)● 2=Moderate(10-35people)● 3=High(>35people)

CulturalandHistoricalImpactsAssessesthepotentiallossofculturally-importantresourcesthatcontributetoindividualandcommunityculture,history,medicinalplants,andspirituality.Measuresinclude:

● 0=Noimpacts● 1=Low(limitedlosses,short-termlosses)● 2=Moderate(moderatelosses,long-termlosses)● 3=High(broad-reachinglosses,permanentlosses)

EnvironmentalHarmAssessesthepotentialmonetaryandnonmonetaryimpactsonnaturalsystemsandhabitats,includinglakes,rivers,streams,flora,andfauna.Includesbothshortandlong-termimpacts.Measuresinclude:

● 0=Noenvironmentalimpacts● 1=Low(<$50,000remediation/recovery)● 2=Moderate($50,000-$500,000remediation/recoverycosts)● 3=High(>$500,000remediation/recoverycosts;permanentenvironmentaldamage)

DamagetoInfrastructureAssessesthenumberofpeoplelikelytobeimpactedbycriticalinfrastructureloss;andthenumberofdayscriticalinfrastructureoutagesarelikelytopersist.Measuresinclude:

● 0=N/A● 1=Low(<35peopleaffected;<1day)● 2=Moderate(35-100peopleaffected;1-3days)● 3=High(>100peopleaffected;>3daysoutage)

RecoveryCostsAssessestheuninsuredpublicsectorlossesassociatedwithrecovery,reconstruction,andrehabilitationinanaverageoccurrenceofthehazard.Measuresinclude:

● 0=N/A● 1=Low(<$50,000)● 2=Moderate($50,000-$500,000)● 3=High(>$500,000)

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GovernmentServicesAssessesthepotentialextentofimpactstogovernmentservicesandoperations,includingclosureofthepublicschoolsystem.Measuresinclude:

● 0=Noimpacts● 1=Low(<1day)● 2=Moderate(1-5days)● 3=High(>5days)

DamagetoFacilities/AgricultureAssessesthenumberofbusinesseslikelytobeclosedfor1ormoredaysorreceivephysicaldamageduringanaverageoccurrenceofthehazardandmeasuresthecostofdamagetolivestockandcrops.Measuresinclude:

● 0=None● 1=Low(<1-5SMEs,nomajoremployers;<$50,000inagricultureloss)● 2=Moderate(6-10SMEs;nomajoremployers;$50,000to$500,000inagricultureloss)● 3=High(>10SMEs,1ormoremajoremployers;>$500,000inagricultureloss)

RiskAcceptabilityAssessesofrelativehazardimportanceassignedbyTribalmembersandleaders(ataMay2018riskassessmentworkshop).Measuresinclude:

● 1=Low● 2=Moderate● 3=High

MitigationPotentialAssessestheavailabilityandcost-benefitpotentialofmitigationactionfortheparticularhazard.Ahighernumberrepresentsagreaterabilitytocontrolriskthroughinvestmentoffundsoreffort.Measuresinclude:

● 0=Littleornoexpectedreturnoninvestments● 1=Standardreturnoninvestments● 2=Highexpectedreturnoninvestments

AssessmentFormulaTheassessmentformulaallowsfortheweightingofdifferentfactorsinamannerthatrecognizesthevision,goal,andobjectivesofTribalmitigationplanningefforts.Theformulaisasfollows:RISK=((1+0.2*(RELEVANCE-1))*((PROBABILITY+(TREND-2))/3)*(((HEALTH&PUBLICSAFETY2)+(HOME&PROP+LIVELIHOOD)+(CULTURE&HISTORY+ENVIRONMENT)+((INFRASTRUCTURE+RECOVERYCOSTS)/2)+((GOVT+BUSINESS)/2))/40))*((2*MITIGATION)/(MITIGATION+1))

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ThefollowingexplainshowthisformulacalculatesriskintheLacduFlambeauPlanningArea:

● Thereare9factorsthattogetherassesshazardconsequences.Theyareeachweightedandaddedtogethertogiveafactorthatrangesfrom0to.675.Allotherfactorsacttoincreaseordecreasethisnumberwithinarangefrom0to1toachievetherelativeriskrating.Theseconsequencefactorsandtheirweightingareasfollows:

○ Health&PublicSafety:Thisisthemostheavily-weightedconsequencefactor,representingupto33%oftheconsequencefactor.

○ Home&PropertyandLivelihoodsfieldstogethercontributeupto22%oftheconsequencefactor.

○ EnvironmentandCulture&HistoricalImpactsfieldscontributeupto22%oftheconsequencefactor.

○ InfrastructureLossandRecoveryExpensestogethercontributeupto11%oftheconsequencefactor.

○ GovernmentServicesandBusinessImpactsfieldscontributeupto11%ofthetotalconsequencefactor.

● Allotherfactorsincreaseordecreasethismeasureasfollows:○ Probabilityhasthegreatestinfluence.Itisincreasedordecreasedaccordingto

Trend,whichindicateswhetherthehazardlikelihoodisexpectedtoincreaseordecreaseovertime.Thegreatestcombinationofthesetwofactors(5+3)wouldresultinadoublingoftheriskfactor,whilethelowestcombinationwouldnegatetheriskbyzeroingitoutentirely.

● LocalRelevance,whichisameasureofhowcommunitymembershavecharacterizedtheimportanceofmanagingthehazards,hasthepotentialtoincreasethetotalriskcalculationbyupto40%.

● MitigationPotentialbooststherankingofthosehazardsforwhichexpectedreturnoninvestmentishighbyupto33%,whilezeroingoutthosehazardsforwhichtherearefewtonoeffectivemitigationoptions.

HazardProfilesandAssessmentThehazardidentificationprocessidentifiedmanyhazardsthatexistintheLacduFlambeauplanningarea.Theriskassessmentprocessenabledrankingofthesehazardsaccordingtomitigationpriority.Thefifteenhighest-rankinghazardsareincludedinthisplanandareprofiledbelow.Theyinclude(inorderofrelativerisk):

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Figure12:Rankingofthetop13keyhazardsandtheiroverallhazardrankingasdeterminedbytheTribalEmergencyPreparednessCommittee,historicriskdata,andfutureclimateprojections.

1.PlantandAnimalEpidemic/InvasiveSpecies/SpeciesLossBackground:Plantandanimalepidemicsthreatentoinflictenvironmental,cultural,andeconomicdamage.Plantepidemicscanbecausedbyanumberoffactors,manyofwhicharenotdependentonanexternalbioticorganismlikepathogens,insects,oranimals.Forinstance,climatechange(includingchangesinrainfall,temperature,sunlight,relativehumidity,andwind)willlikelyleadtooracceleratethelossofcertainplantspecies.Drought:Astemperaturesincreaseandprecipitationpatternschange,thereisthepotentialformoredrought,whichcouldaffectthesurvivaloflocalplantandanimalspecies.Whileaverageannualprecipitationisprojectedtoincreaseintheregion(SeeFigure7)thisdoesnotprecludethepossibilityofdroughts.Droughtistheresultofanaturaldeclineinexpectedprecipitationoveranextendedperiodoftimeandoccursinvirtuallyeveryclimateontheplanet,includingareasofbothhighandlowprecipitation.Theseverityofdroughtcanbeaggravatedbyotherclimaticfactorssuchasprolongedhighwinds,lowrelativehumidity,andextremeheat.Thefollowingfourdefinitionsarecommonlyusedtodescribedifferenttypesofdroughtanddemonstratethecomplexityofthehazard:

1. Meteorologicaldrought:Degreeofdryness,expressedasadepartureoftheactualprecipitationfromtheexpectedaverageornormalprecipitationamount,basedonmonthly,seasonal,orannualtimescales.

2. Hydrologicaldrought:Effectsofprecipitationshortfallsonstreamflows,andreservoir,lake,andgroundwaterlevels.

3. Agriculturaldrought:Soilmoisturedeficienciesrelativetowaterdemandsofcrops.

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4. Socioeconomicdrought(orwatermanagementdrought):Shortageofwaterduetothedemandforwaterexceedingthesupply.Theseverityofadroughtdependsonseveralfactors:duration,intensity,geographicextent,watersupplydemandsforbothhumanuseandvegetation.

Droughtisdifficulttodefineinexactterms,dueinparttothewaysitdiffersfromotherhazards:

● Theonsetandendofadroughtaredifficulttodeterminebecauseoftheslowbuildupofeffectsandthelingeringimpactsafteritsapparentend;

● Thereisnoexactanduniversally-accepteddefinition,addingtotheconfusionofexistenceandseverity;and

● Theimpactofdroughtislessobviousandmaybespreadoveralargergeographicarea.

Thesecharacteristicshavehinderedthepreparationofdroughtcontingencyormitigationplansandcanmakeitdifficulttoperformanaccurateriskanalysis.ThemagnitudeofadroughtismeasuredusingthePalmerDroughtSeverityIndex.Factorsliketemperature,soilmoisture,andprecipitationareenteredintoanalgorithmthatreturnsresultsbetween-4(extremedrought)and4(extremelymoist)withzerobeingnormalconditions.Theindexiseffectiveatdeterminingdroughtoveraperiodofmonths,butlesseffectiveovershortertimeframes.DroughtsareratedbytheU.S.DroughtMonitorintothefollowingcategoriesbasedonfiveindicatorsincludingthePalmerIndexandstreamflowdata:

● D0:AbnormallyDry○ Goingintodrought:Short-termdrynessslowingplantingandgrowthofcropsor

pastures○ Comingoutofdrought:Somelingeringwaterdeficits;Pasturesorcropsnotfully

recovered● D1:ModerateDrought

○ Somedamagetocropsandpastures○ Streams,reservoirs,orwellslow,somewatershortagesdevelopingorimminent○ Voluntarywater-userestrictionsrequested

● D2:SevereDrought○ Croporpasturelosseslikely○ Watershortagescommon○ Waterrestrictionsimposed

● D3:ExtremeDrought○ Majorcropandpasturelosses○ Widespreadwatershortagesorrestrictions

● D4:ExceptionalDrought○ Exceptionalandwidespreadcropandpasturelosses○ Shortagesofwaterinreservoirs,streams,andwellscreatingwateremergencies

TheCropMoistureIndexwasdevelopedtomeasuresoilmoistureovershorterperiods,uptofourweeks,andhasvaluesbetween-3(severelydry)and3(excessivelywet),againwithzeroasnormalconditions.

PeriodsofdroughthavebeencommoninWisconsin,occurringaboutonceeverytenyears.Assuch,droughthasbeenacommonandoftenextendedoccurrenceinVilasCounty,and

33

likewisetheLacduFlambeauReservation.Sincetheturnofthe21stcentury,droughtconditionshaveexistedinalmostoneofeverytwoyears,including2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2012,and2013.Analmostcontinuousperiodofdroughtpersistedfrom2005untiltheendof2010.Lakelevelsthroughoutthecountywereaffectedbytheseprolongedconditions,andbothrecreationandagriculturewereaffected.

OtheryearsofnotabledroughtinVilascountyinclude1929-1934,1948-1950,1955-1959,1976/77,1987-1989.The1976/77eventresultedin$624millioninagriculturallossesacrossWisconsin,includinginVilasCounty.Diseases:Anotherwaythatplantandanimalspeciesmaybeaffectedisthroughdiseases.Therearefivebasiccategoriesofplantdiseases:

1. Newdiseases:diseasesintroducedonanewhostwithinthepastfiveyearsinanewgeographicarea

2. Emergingdiseases:diseaseswhoseincidencehasincreasedwithinthepast10to15years3. Reemergingdiseases:diseasespreviouslyknownintheareabutthataregaining

importance4. Threateningdiseases:diseasesnotreportedorwithlimiteddistributioninanew

geographicarea5. Chronic/spreadingdiseases:diseaseswhosepresencehasbeenknownforalongperiod

andthatarestillcausingoutbreaks

Plantandagriculturaloutbreakscanbespreadbyanumberofmeans,including(butnotlimitedto)thefollowing:

● Vectors(insects,suchasaphids,arecommonvectors);● Propagationofdiseasedplants;● Plantingofinfectedseeds;● Useofcontaminatedcattlemanure;● Movementofcropsincontaminatedequipment;● Wind,includinghurricanesandtornadoes;and● Humantransportationofinfectedplantsandfruits(intentionalandunintentional).

TheBureauofPlantIndustry,DATCP,monitorsforplantpestsanddiseasesinthestate.TheBureauusesscientificsurveysandroutineinspectionsoflicensedbusinessestomonitorforpestsanddiseases.Italsoenforcesregulationstocontrolandpreventintroductionandspreadofpestsanddiseases.GrowersinWisconsincansubscribetotheweeklyPestBulletintostayinformed.Livestockandanimalepidemicsarethosethataffectthelifeofanyanimalotherthanhumans.Animalepidemicsoftenstrikelivestockonalargescalegiventhedenselivingenvironments,andcontrolmayrequirecullingofallanimalsintheaffectedarea.Epidemicscancausealossofconfidenceinfoodsupplies,andevennon-contaminatedproductscanberenderedvalueless.VeterinariansarelegallyrequiredtoreportsuspectedcasesofcertaindiseasestotheWisconsinDepartmentofAgriculture,TradeandConsumerProtection(DATCP)ortheU.S.DepartmentofAgriculture.Whenveterinariansreportthesediseases,astateorfederal

34

veterinarianwillinvestigateand,ifnecessary,submitsamplestoeithertheU.S.VeterinaryLaboratoryinAmes,Iowa,ortoPlumIslandResearchCenterinNewYork(forsuspectedforeignanimaldiseases).Untiltestresultsareavailable,thepremisesarelikelytobequarantined.Invasivespeciesarespeciesthatare:1)non-native(oralien)totheecosystemwheretheyarefound,and;2)likelytocauseeconomicorenvironmentalharmorharmtohumanhealthasaresultoftheirintroduction.Invasivespeciescanbeplants,animals,andotherorganisms(e.g.,microbes).Humanactionsaretheprimarymeansofinvasivespeciesintroductions.In2001theWisconsinLegislaturedirectedtheDepartmentofNaturalResources(DNR)toestablishastatewideprogramtocontrolinvasivespecies.TheprogramandregulationsareaimedatpreventingnewinvasivespeciesfromgettingtoWisconsinandenablingquickactiontocontroloreradicatethoseherebutnotyetestablished.TheLacduFlambeauTribehasitsownmonitoringprogramsforbothaquaticandterrestrialspecies.TheWisconsinDepartmentofNaturalResourceslistshundredsofregulatedandnon-regulatedaquatic,terrestrial,andwetlandinvasiveplantsandanimalsthatareimpactingthestate.Animalandplantepidemicsarelesscommon,yethavethepotentialtocausegraveeconomicandenvironmentaldamagesinarelativelyshorttimespan.VulnerabilityandRiskAssessment:OutbreaksofforeignanimaldiseasesnotpreviouslyoccurringintheUnitedStates,suchasavianinfluenzaH5N1;orthathavebeenpreviouslyeradicated,suchasFMD;orthattheUnitedStatesisattemptingtoeradicate,suchaspseudorabiesandbovinetuberculosis,areveryrareinWisconsin.Thestateis,however,currentlyengagedineffortstoaddressanumberofotherwell-knownthreatssuchasavianinfluenza(poultry),chronicwastingdisease(deerandelk),andthedestructiveinvasivespeciesemeraldashborer,gypsymoth,andzebramussel.Theon-goinglocal,state,andfederalmanagementeffortsseektocontrolandminimizetheseandotherthreats.Table6:VulnerabilityandriskassessmentforPlantandAnimalEpidemicsummarizingassessmentandscoresforeachmeasure.

Measure Assessment Value

Probability

Basedonthehistoricalprevalenceofinvasivespeciesandplantandanimalepidemics,theLacduFlambeautribeshouldanticipatethepresenceofinvasivespeciesatalltimes,andtheintroductionofnewandemergingepidemicsand/orinvasiveplantoranimalspeciesonaregularbasisaveragingapproximately1ormoreinstancesperyear.Thisequatestoa100%probabilityinanygivenyear.

5

Trend

Increasedtemperaturevariabilityandincreasedprecipitationresultinshiftingplantandanimalranges,andresultinexpansionofareasimpactedbyplantandanimaldiseases.Specieslossoccursasaresultofdisease,habitatloss,contamination,habitatorclimateincompatibility(asaresultofclimatechange),developmentpressures,andotherfactors.

3

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Health/PublicSafety

Thelossofkeyplantandanimalspecieshasthepotentialaffectboththephysicalhealthoftribalmembersastheyshiftawayfromtraditionaldietstomoreprocessedfoodsandthementalhealthofcommunitymembers.

1

HomeandPropertyDamage

Invasivespeciescancausesignificantdamagetohomesandpropertybecausemechanismsforprotectionareoftenweakornonexistent(duetoalackofexperiencemanagingtheinvasivespecies).

2

LivelihoodsInvasivespeciescancausewidespreadandeventotallossofcertaincrops,livestock,andtrees,impactingthosewhoselivelihoodsdependontheseresources.

2

Infrastructure Nolikelyimpact. 0

RecoveryCostsPublicexpendituresrelatedtothecontrolofinvasivespeciesand/orplantoranimalepidemicscanextendintothemillionsofdollarsevenforsmallcommunities.

3

Environment Forestsandendemicplantandanimalspeciesareatsignificantandconstantriskfrominvasivespeciesandplantandanimalepidemics. 3

Cultural/Historic

TheLacduFlambeauwayoflifeiscloselyinterlinkedwiththeplantsandanimalsnativetotheplanningarea.DamagetoorlossofanynaturalresourceswillhaveprofoundimpactsonTribalculture.Assignedbyworkshopparticipants.

3

GovernmentServices Nolikelyimpact. 0

Business/Agriculture

Theeconomiccostofinvasivespeciesand/orplantandanimalepidemicsonagricultureandbusinessreachesintothebillionsofdollarsnationwide.Croploss,cullingofanimals,andcostsassociatedwithvaccination,testing,publicrelations,andotheractionscanandhavebeenveryhighinpasteventsintheUnitedStatesincludinginWisconsin.

3

RiskAcceptability Assignedbyworkshopparticipants. 3

MitigationPotential Standardexpectedreturnoninvestment 1

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2.IllegalDrugCrisisBackground:Illegaldrugsareaperennialpublichealthissueandaconstantstrainonpublicresources.Opioids,whichareaclassofdrugsthatinteractwithreceptorsonnervecellsinthebodyandbrain,producingeuphoriaandpainrelief(NIH,2017),arenotableintermsoftheirseveresocialandmedicalimpactsonsocietyandrepresentthemostpressingdrug-relatedconcerninLacduFlambeauatthepresenttime.Methamphetamineuseanddistributionalsothreatensthepublichealthandlifesafetyoftribalmembers.Examplesofopioidsfrequentlyabusedincludeheroin,oxycodone,hydrocodone,morphine,codeine,fentanyl,andcarfentanyl.Whileseveralofthesearecommonlyprescribedforpatientpainrelief,allmayleadtosevereaddictioninashorttimeframeandarethusabusedforrecreationaluses.Opioidsbecomedeadlywhentakeninhighdoses,usedincombinationwithotherdrugs,orgiventopeoplewithcertainpre-existingmedicalconditions.ThemisuseandabuseofopioidsispresentlydeclaredapublichealthcrisisinWisconsin(http://bit.ly/2FoarGl).Mirroringnationwidetrends,theLacduFlambeauTribeandVilasCountyatlargecontinuetofaceanepidemicofopioidaddictionandabuse.Thishasresultedinanincreasingnumberofemergencycallsrelatedtooverdose,oftentimeaccompaniedorfollowedbydeathoftheaffectedindividual(s)(seeFigureX-USOpioidDeaths2002-2015(NIH,2017)).

Figure13:NationalOverdoseDeathsfromOpioidDrugsintheUnitedStatesbyYear.(Source:NationalCenterforHealthStatistics.

Figure14:EmergencyMedicalServicesRunswithNaloxoneAdministrationbyPatientCountyofResidence,Wisconsin2015.

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Opioidoverdoseresultsindeathwhenanexcessivedoseslowsbreathing.Thisriskisexacerbatedwhenopioidsarecombinedwithalcoholorantianxietydrugs.Whilegenerallyprescribedwithgoodintentions,opioidsareoftenover-prescribedinamannerthatresultsinaddiction.Thereopioidcrisisinfluencescommunityvulnerabilityinanumberofwaysasaresultofthefollowingcommonresponseandrecoveryrequirements.Examplesinclude:

● Increasedcallstoemergencymedicalservicesrelatedtooverdose;● Requirementforlawenforcementofficerstocarrydrugsthathelpreversetheeffectsof

opioidoverdose(Naloxone)bothforvictimsandtoaddresstheirownjob-relatedexposurerisks;

● Unemploymentandjoblossrelatedtoaddiction;● Higherburdenonfostercareandotherrelatedservicesforchildrenofaddictedindividuals

(includingchildrenbornwithopioidaddiction);and● Increaseinviolentcrime,robberies,andburglaries.

TheU.S.CentersforDiseaseControlandPrevention(CDC)reportsthatmorethan115peopledieeverydayintheUnitedStatesfromanopioidoverdose(CDC,2018).Between2015and2016,thedeathrateassociatedwithopioidabuseinWisconsinrose41%,to15.8per100,000peopleor827totaldeaths(WisconsinDHS,2018;seeFigure15).MeasuredasafactorofNaloxoneadministrationbypatientcountyofresidence,VilasCountyexperiencedarateof102.3per100,000callsrequiringNaloxone,placingitjustunderthemostsevereranking(seeFigure14).

Methamphetamine,alsoknownas“speed,""crank,""ice,"and"meth",isapowerful,illegally-producedstimulantthatattacksthecentralnervoussystem.Useofmethamphetaminecanquicklyresultinnervousness,compulsivebehavior,irritability,anger,aggressiveness,hallucinations,paranoia,depressionwithsuicidaltendencies,heartattacksandstrokes.MethamphetaminehasspreadthroughouttheUnitedStates,particularlyintheWest,Midwest,andSoutheast.AlthoughmostofthemethamphetamineinWisconsinismanufacturedoutsideofthestate,clandestinemethamphetaminelabshavealsobeensetuponkitchentablesorworkbenchesinsheds,garages,barns,homes,apartmentsandmotelrooms.Manufacturingmethamphetamineundertheseconditionsposesdangerousrisksforpublichealthandtheenvironment.

Figure15:NumberofOpioidrelatedoverdosebytypeinWisconsin.

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Methamphetamineproduction,distribution,anduseendangersthecommunityonmultiplelevelsincludingthetearingapartoffamilies,incarcerationandjoblossforusers,pollutionofthenaturalenvironment,andstrainonlocalgovernmentsburdenedbytherequirementsoffightingthemethproblem.TheimpactofmethamphetamineuseanddistributionisalsoincreasingacrossVilasCounty,includinginLacduFlambeau.Arecent(February2018)murderofa22-yearoldLacduFlambeauresidentthathasbeenlinkedtodistributionofmethamphetamineshighlightsthepublicsafetythreatassociatedwiththisdrug.WhilemuchofthemethamphetaminefoundinVilasCountyistraffickedfromMexico,thediscoveryoflocalproductionlabsindicatesagrowingcomplexityofthisproblem.Fatalitiesassociatedwithmethamphetamineoverdosearelesscommonthanwithopioids,howevertheimpactonthelivesandlivelihoodsofthoseaddictedtomethamphetaminesandtheirimmediatefamilymembersisnonethelesssignificant.FutureOccurrence:Ratesofopioidprescriptionsfellin2017by12percent,representingthelargestdropinaquartercentury(CNBC,2018).Whilethisrepresentsprogresstowardscontrollingthecrisis,opioidoverdosesstilltakemorelivesthanautomobileaccidents.

Riskfactorsforopioidoverdoseinclude:● Tolerance:Tolerancecandecreaserapidlywhensomeonetakesabreakfromusingan

opioid.Restartingatthesamedoseputsindividualsatriskforanoverdose.● PhysicalHealth:Opioidscanimpairbreathing.Individualswithasthmaorotherbreathing

problemsareatahighriskforoverdose.Individualswithliverand/orkidneyproblemsorthosewhoareHIVpositivealsoareatincreasedrisk.

● PreviousOverdose:Anindividualwhohashadanonfataloverdoseinthepasthasanincreasedriskoffataloverdoseinthefuture.

● MixingDrugs:Manyoverdosesoccurwhenopioidsaremixedwithalcohol,sedatives/anti-anxietymedicines,orothersubstances.

Intheeventofanopioidoverdose,deathcansometimesbepreventedwiththeuseofNaloxone.Emergencymedicalrespondershaveaccesstothetreatment,andbystandingorderNaloxoneisavailablewithoutaprescriptioninWisconsin.MethamphetamineusecontinuestorisethroughoutWisconsin,especiallyinruralareas.7Policesurveysindicatethatlawenforcementofficialsconsideritsuseanddistributiontheirprimarydrugproblem.VulnerabilityAssessment:Deathsfromprescriptionopioiddrugslikeoxycodone,hydrocodone,andmethadone,aswellasthosefromsyntheticopioidslikeheroin,haveincreasedbyafactorofmorethanfoursince2010(NIH,2018).InWisconsin,emergencyroomvisitsforsuspectedopioidoverdosesmorethandoubledjustbetweenJulyof2016andSeptemberof2017(WisconsinStateJournal,2018).VilasCountyisparticularlyhard-hitbythecrisis,withLacduFlambeaumostsignificantlyaffected(VilasCountyNews

7Gibson,Gary.2018.MethRatesStillonRise,DespiteEffortsCombatingUsage.TheBadgerHerald.March13.http://bit.ly/2miXLcx.

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Review,2018).Whileopioidaddictionisoftenviewedasacriminalorsocialproblem,itmustalsobeaddressedinlightofitscommunityvulnerabilityimplications.Table7:VulnerabilityandriskassessmentfortheIllegalDrugCrisissummarizingassessmentandscoresforeachmeasure.

Measure Assessment Value

Probability TheillegaldrugcrisisisanongoingprobleminVilasCounty,includinginLacduFlambeau.Vilascountyrankedamongthecountiesmostseverelyaffectedbytheopioidcrisisinthestate.Thereiscurrentlya100%probabilityofoccurrenceinanyyear.

5

Trend Publichealthstatisticsindicatethatwhiletherateofopioidprescriptionpeakedin2017,thenumberofoverdosesandassociatedfatalitiesremainshigh.Riskremainshighandisunlikelytowaneinthenearfuturewithoutintenseintervention.

2

Health/PublicSafety Theillegaldrugcrisisthreatensthepublichealthandlifesafetyofresidentsasaresultofoverdoserisk,riskfromaccidentalcontactoringestion,andsafetyriskfromviolenceassociatedwiththeillegaldrugtrade.

2

HomeDamage Contaminationanddamagecanoccurinhomesusedforthecreation,processing,andconsumptionofillegaldrugssuchasmethamphetamines.

1

Livelihood TheabilitytomaintainemploymentamongIndividualsimpactedbytheillegaldrugcrisis,whetherusers,caregiversofusers,ordependentsofusers,issignificantlyimpacted.

2

Infrastructure n/a 2

RecoveryCosts Thecostsofmanagingthepublichealthandsafetyresponseandrecoveryrequirements,includingtreatmentofoverdosevictims,carefordependents,increasedemandsonlawenforcement,andothercosts,aremoderate.

2

Environment Environmentalharmassociatedwithmethamphetamineproductionistypicallylimitedtoprivatepropertywhereproductionlabsoperate.Whilebroadercontaminationispossible(syringes/needlesbeingleftonthelandscapeorwashedintowaterbodies)thereislimitedlikelyimpact.

0

Cultural/Historic Theillegaldrugcrisiscontinuestohaveprofoundimpactsontriballifeandtradition. 3

GovernmentServices Someadditionalstrainonlawenforcementagenciesaswellascommunityhealthandmedicalprograms. 1

Business/Agriculture Nolikelyimpact. 0

RiskAcceptability Assignedbyworkshopparticipants. 3

40

MitigationPotential Highexpectedreturnoninvestments. 2

3. SevereThunderstorms/Lightning/HailBackground:Thunderstormsarelocalstormsaccompaniedbylightningandthunder.Theyareproducedbycumulonimbuscloudsandareusuallyaccompaniedbygustywinds,heavyrain,andoccasionallyhail.Theyrequiremoistureintheformofwatervaporthatliesinthelowestatmosphericlevels;arapidcoolingofairabovetheselow,wetlevels,decreasesintemperaturewithaltitude;andaforcestrongenoughtoliftthelowmoistairtothehigher,colderatmosphericlayers(e.g.,acoldfront).

Thunderstormsareclassifiedasnon-severeandsevere.Non-severethunderstormsrarelylastlongerthantwohours.Atypicalnon-severethunderstormlifecyclehasthreestages:8

7. Cumulusstage.Warm,moistairrises(updrafts)andcondensesintotinywaterdropletsthatmakeupthevisiblecloud.Outsideairispulledintothecloud.Supercooleddropletsofwaterarecarriedfarabovethefreezinglevel.

8. Maturestage.Thecloudgrowsabovethefreezinglevel;precipitationformsandbecomesheavyenoughtofallbacktotheearth.Frictioncausedbythefallingprecipitationgeneratesdowndraftsofcoolairthatreachtheearth’ssurface.Veryheavyrainsareassociatedwiththisstage.Thecloudextendsupwardtothetropopause,causingacharacteristicflat(anvil)toptoform.Periodsofstronglightningarelikelyduringthisstage,whichtypicallylastsfrom10to20minutes.

9. Dissipationstage.Thedownwardmotionofairovercomesthestorm,deprivingitofmoistair.Precipitationbeginstosubside,andthecloudevaporates.

Thunderstormsbecomeseverewhentheirwindspeedsexceed58milesperhourandhailformsinballsgreaterthanthree-quartersofaninchindiameter.Severaldifferentkindsofthunderstormscanform:

● Singlecell.Theseuncommonshort-livedstorms,lastingonly20to30minutesfromformationtodissipationandgenerallycoveringonlyalimitedareaofafewsquaremiles.

● Multi-cell.Themostcommontypeofthunderstormsconsistofanorganizedclusteroftwoormoresinglecells.Thestormcellsfueleachotherwiththeairthatflowsbetweenthemandcausenewcellstoforminsuccessionontheflankorrearsideseveryfiveto15minutes.

● Supercell.Thesestormsarealwayssevere.Supercellscausesignificantdamage,lastforalongtime(typicallyonetosixhours)andtravelgreatdistances(200milesormore).Thesestormscancausehurricane-forcewinds,gianthail(twoinchesindiameterormore),andsignificanttornadoactivity.Asupercellproducesupdraftsof56to112mphthatcombinewithsustaineddowndraftstoextendthestorm’sduration.

● Squalllines.Thesearelinesorbandsofactivethunderstormsthatcanextendmorethan500miles,canbe20mileswide,andconsistofmanylaterallyalignedcellsthatdonotinteractorinterferewithoneanother.Thecellsinvolvedinthesqualllinemaybeacombinationoftypes.Thesephenomenaoftenformalongcoldfronts,buttheyalsocanform

8Coppola,DamonP.2015.IntroductiontoInternationalDisasterManagement.Elsevier.Burlington.https://amzn.to/2w3haWF.

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asfaras100milesaheadofanadvancingcoldfront,inthewarmsectorofanextratropicalstorm.Theyoftentrailalarge,flatcloudlayerthatbringssignificantrainafterthestormspass.

Thunderstormscausemostoftheirdamagethroughtherainandwindtheygenerate.Flashfloodsarecommonbecauseoftherapidprecipitation,whichcannotbeabsorbedbythegroundandquicklyaccumulatesasrunoff.Hailcancausedamagetobuildingsandcrops.Lightingcancausefatalitiesandgeneratefires.Lesscommonbutverydamagingaretornadoesthatcanformasaresultofthesestorms.HistoricalAnalysis:Therehavebeen32recordedsevereandpotentially-damagingthunderstorm,lightning,and/orhaileventsinLacduFlambeausince1993.Thisequatestoanaveragefrequencyof1.28eventsperyear.In1993,aparticularlyseverestormresultedinthedowningofover100,000treesandthedeathoftwopeople.Over50,000peoplewereleftwithoutpower,approximately150to200homesweredamaged,andmanymajorhighwaysandsecondaryroadswereblocked.VulnerabilityandRiskAssessment:GeographicexposureisrelativelyuniformacrosstheLacduFlambeauReservation.Thoselivingorworkinginstructuresthatarenotresistanttohighwindsaremorevulnerable,includingprefabricatedclassroomsandmobilehomes.Thoseinlivingorworkinginstructureswithlargeoverhangingtreesarealsoatrisk.Personal,business,andgovernmentpropertyriskisextremeintheeventoflargehail,especiallyautomobilesthatarenotgaraged.Livestockandcropsareatriskfromhailandlightning.Therisktoresidentsfromlightningissevere,aslightningstrikesareoftenfatalandaresecondonlytofloodingintermsofdisaster-relatedfatalitiesintheUnitedStates.Table8:VulnerabilityandriskassessmentfortheSevereThunderstorms/Lightning/Hailsummarizingassessmentandscoresforeachmeasure.

Measure Assessment Value

ProbabilityBasedonhistoricalfrequency,theLacduFlambeautribeshouldanticipateanaverageof1-2severethunderstormeventsperyear.Thisequatestoa100%probabilityinanygivenyear.

5

Trend Climatechangeisincreasingboththefrequencyandthestrengthsofseverestorms. 3

Health/PublicSafety

Publicsafetyisthreatenedbystructuralfailure,fallingtreesandlimbs,lightningstrikes,andhail.Inpastevents,injuriesandfatalitieshaveoccurredbuthavebeenlimitedto2orfewerfatalitiesandlessthan20injuries.

1

HomeDamageHomeandpropertydamagefromdownedtrees,lightning,andhailissignificantinstrongandwidespreadthunderstorms,especiallythosethatincludelargehailstones.

3

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Livelihood Nolikelyimpact. 0

Infrastructure Heavywindscanseverelyimpactpowerandcommunicationstransmissionlines,andblockmajorandsecondaryroads. 3

RecoveryCosts

Pasteventshaveresultedindamagetoschools,streetsigns,emergencyservices,governmentbuildings,utilities,publicsectorequipmentandvehicles,andmore.Costsassociatedwithdebrisclearanceandcleanupmaybeexcessive.Costsassociatedwiththunderstormrecoverycaneasilyexceed$500,000perevent.

3

EnvironmentPaststormshavefelledhundredsofthousandsoftrees.Stormwaterrunoffhasthepotentialtopollutewaterresourcesincludingdrinkingwater.

2

Cultural/Historic Assignedbyworkshopparticipants. 2

GovernmentServices Morethan1dayofdisruptionisunlikely. 1

Business/AgricultureImpacts Agriculturallossesfromwind,hail,andlightningcanbesevere. 2

RiskAcceptability Assignedbyworkshopparticipants. 3

MitigationPotential Standardexpectedreturnoninvestment. 1

4. Epidemic/Pandemic/Vector-BorneDiseaseBackground:Communicablediseases(alsocalled“infectious”diseases)areillnessescausedbybacteria,viruses,fungi,andprions.Theillnessmaybetheresultoftheinfectingorganismoratoxintheorganismproduces.Communicablediseasesmaybetransmittedinseveralways,including:

● Fromaninfectedpersontoanothernon-infectedperson;● Fromananimaltoahuman;and● Fromaninanimateobject(doorknobs,tabletops,etc.)toahuman.

Somecommunicablediseasescanbespreadinmorethanoneoftheseways.Theroutesoftransmissionmayincludeairborneparticulates,food,liquids,bodilyfluids,contaminatedobjects,ingestion,orvector-bornespread.Someinfectiousdiseases,suchasflu,presentseasonalthreatstothepublicandrequirecontinualmonitoring.Apandemicfluisanepidemicofaninfluenzavirusthatspreadsonaworldwidescaleandinfectsalargeproportionoftheworldpopulation.Regularseasonalepidemicsoffluaremoregeographicallyconstrained.Aflupandemiccanoccurwhenanewstrainoftheinfluenzavirusistransmittedtohumansfromanotheranimalspecies.Historically,thesenewhuman-susceptiblestrainshavearisenmostcommonlyinpigs,chickens,andducks.Themostcurrentandactivethreatcomes

43

frominfluenzatypeAstrainsthatoriginateinbirdsandbecomereadilytransferableintootherorganisms.Thesevirusescanbetransmittedfromwildbirdstootherbirdspecies,causingoutbreaksindomesticpoultry.Thesevirusescanalsomutateintohighlyvirulentstrainsthatcaninfecthumans,withthepotentialtocausehumaninfluenzapandemics.Thisshouldespeciallyconcernpeoplewholiveincloseproximitytolivestock.Virusesdesignatedashighlypathogenicresultinhighmortality(upto100percent)within48hours.Controlofoutbreaksmayrequirethecullingoflivestock.Severalinfluenzaoutbreaksinthepast15yearshaveresultedinmillionsofpoultrydeathsandsevereimpactstolivelihoods,localeconomies,andinternationaltrade.Anepidemicbecomesapandemicwhenitsinfluencebecomesglobal.Theytypicallyoccurwhenanewpathogenemergesforwhichpeoplehavelittleornoimmunity,andforwhichthereisnovaccine.Thediseasespreadseasilyfrompersontoperson,causesseriousillnessordeath,andcanoverwhelmacommunityinaveryshorttimeframe.HistoricalAnalysis:InfluenzaPandemicsarenaturallyoccurringeventsthathavestruckatvariouspointsacrossthenation’shistoricalrecord.EachoftheseeventsimpactedWisconsinresidents.Therewerethreepandemicinfluenzaoutbreaksduringthe20thcentury,beginningin1918,1957,and1968respectively.Sincetheturnofthe21stcentury,therehasbeenonepandemicinfluenzaoutbreak,whichbeganin2009andwasbroughtundercontrolin2010.Thegreatesthumanlossassociatedwithapandemicoccurredinthe1918SpanishFlu(H1N1)incident.Anestimated20-40millionpeoplelosttheirlivesworldwide,550,000ofwhichwereintheUnitedStates.TheAsianFlu(H2N2)pandemicthatstruckin1957and1958hadanassociatedmortalityofapproximately70,000intheUnitedStates.TheHongKongFlu(H3N2),whichlastedfrom1968to1969,killedapproximately34,000peopleintheUnitedStates.The2009SwineFlupandemic(H1N1),wasconfirmedtohavekilledapproximately14,000peopleworldwide,ofwhich3,400wereintheUnitedStates,thoughexpertsbelievethesenumbersrepresentonly6-10%ofthetotalnumberofdeaths.InWisconsin,therewere13,511confirmedorprobablecasesofH1N1fromApril2009toMarch2010,with1,320hospitalizedand55deaths.InVilasCounty,therewere6casesofH1N1with4hospitalizationsandnodeathsreported.Othereventswithpandemicpotential,includingAvianFlu,SevereAcuteRespiratorySyndrome(SARS),andMiddleEasternRespiratorySyndrome(MERS),andnon-respiratoryillnesseslikeEbolaandWestNileVirus,wereeitherbroughtundercontrolbyamixofpublichealthandothermeasuresbeforeveryhighdeathtollsresultedorarestillactivebutarebeingsuccessfullycontrolled.TheVilasCountyHealthDepartmenttrackscommunicablediseasethroughachannelofcommunicationsatthelocal,stateandregionallevelsbetweenpublichealth,privatephysicians,hospitals,andlabs.Thiscommunicationchannelallowsforpromptinvestigationofpossibleoutbreaksandunusualsituations,andtoimplementcontrolmeasurestominimizefurthertransmissionofdiseasetoothers.

44

VulnerabilityandRiskAssessment:Emerginginfectiousdiseasesposeaparticularrisktourbanandsuburbancommunitiesduetothecloseenvironmentinwhichpeopleinteract.Mostcommunicablediseasesaredealtwiththroughtraditionalhealthdepartmentactivities.ThecomplexityandmagnitudeofaPandemicInfluenzaoutbreakwouldtaxthenormalcapabilitiesofthemedicalservicecommunityandtheEmergencyManagementDepartmentwouldassistinallactivitiessurroundinganeventofthisseverity.ThepossibilityofacommunicablediseaseepidemicorpandemicoutbreakisequalacrossVilasCountyandthereforeLacduFlambeau.Theabilitytopredictwhereandwhenaneventwilloccurisverydifficult.Theprobabilityofemerginginfectiousdiseasesepidemicsisthereforeunknown.Table9:VulnerabilityandriskassessmentforEpidemic/Pandemic/VectorBorneDiseasesummarizingassessmentandscoresforeachmeasure.

Measure Assessment Value

Probability Infectiousdiseasesareanever-presentconcerninLacduFlambeauasitisthroughoutthecountryandtheworld.Influenzaisanannualoccurrenceandthepotentialformutationthatresultsinanexceptionallyvirulentstrainissmallbutever-present.SeveralemerginginfectiousdiseasesimpactVilasCountyatanygiventime,thoughthevastmajorityofthesearekeptundercontrolthroughavarietyofpublichealthmeasures.Basedonhistoricalfrequency,theLacduFlambeautribeshouldanticipateanaverageof1eventwithepidemicorpandemicpotentialevery30-35years.Thisequatestoa3%probabilityinanygivenyear.

2

Trend Highertemperaturesandwetterconditionstendtoincreasemosquitoandtickactivity,leadingtoanincreasedriskofexistingandnewzoonoticdiseases(e.g.,WestNilevirus(WNV),LaCrosse/Californiaencephalitis,JamestownCanyonvirus,St.Louisencephalitis,andEasternequineencephalitis.)Non-nativemosquitospeciesmaymoveintoWisconsiniftheclimatebecomesmoresuitableforthem,bringingwiththemdiseasessuchasJamestownCanyonvirus,Chikungunya,andDengueFever.Ticksarealsowell-knowndiseasevectorsinWisconsin,carryingpathogenssuchasLymedisease,anaplasmosis,Ehrlichiosis,Powassanvirus,andBabesiosis.Tickpopulationsarealreadyexpandingdueinparttoclimatechange.Warmer,wetterweathercancausealgalbloomsanddecliningbeachhealth.Anincreaseinfloodeventsmayresultinmoreprevalentmoldproblemsinhomesandbusinessesandcontaminationofwellsandsurfacewaters.

3

Health/PublicSafety

AnepidemicorpandemiccausedbyaninfectiousdiseasehasthepotentialtoinfectasizeablenumberofresidentsontheReservation,leadingtohospitalizationandpotentiallythedeathofupto100%ofthoseinfected.

3

HomeDamage Nolikelyimpact. 0

Livelihood Manypeoplewilltemporarilyorpermanentlylosetheirsourceofincomeduetoillnessorworkplaceclosure.

3

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Infrastructure Nolikelyimpact. 0

RecoveryCosts Recoverycostsassociatedwithepidemicorpandemicillnessstemfromtheuseofpublicfundstoaddresstransmissionprevention(includingvectorcontrol),decontamination,medicalsupplies,andotherrelatedexpenses.

2

Environment Nolikelyimpact. 0

Cultural/Historic

Thelossofkeycommunitymembers,notablytribalelders,mayhaveprofoundandpermanentimpactsontraditionalknowledgeandpractices.

3

GovernmentServices

Governmentservicesmaybeimpactedwhengovernmentemployeesbecomeill,whengovernmentfacilitiesareforcedtoclosefordecontaminationortransmissionprevention,orwhengovernmentpersonnelaredivertedtoworkonpublic-healthneeds.

2

Business/Agriculture

Businessesmaybeimpactedbyanepidemicorpandemiceventifemployeesbecomeill,ifcustomersavoidpublicspaces,ifsupplychainsaredisrupted,oriftherearedecontaminationrequirements,amongotherreasons.

2

RiskAcceptability

Assignedbyworkshopparticipants. 3

MitigationPotential

Therealorperceivedthreatofanemerginginfectiousdiseasehasthepotentialtodisruptnormalpublicinteractions.Theimpactofemerginginfectiousdiseasescanbemitigatedbyimmunization;reporting,investigation,andsurveillance;andresponse.

2

5. Flood(flashflood,lake,river,stormwater)Background:Afloodisanoverabundanceofwaterthatengulfslandandotherpropertythatisnormallydry.Thereareseveraldifferentreasonsthatfloodsoccur,includingsustainedorheavyrainfall,meltingsnow,obstructionofanaturalwaterways(e.g.,bybeavers,ice,debris,orlandslides),amongothergenerativefactors.Majorfloodsaffectingwidegeographicareasaretypicallytheresultoflarge-scaleweathersystemscapableofgeneratingprolongedrainfall,buteventsofequallysignificantmagnitudecanoccurinmuchlesstimefollowingintensethunderstormswithexceptionallyheavyprecipitationratesordamfailures.Floodsarecapableofunderminingbuildingsandbridges,erodingshorelinesandriverbanks,tearingouttrees,washingoutaccessroutes,andcausinglossoflifeandinjuries.Flashfloods,whichcanreachfullpeakinonlyafewminutes,areadistinctcategoryoffloodcharacterizedbythelackofwarningthatispossiblegiventheirrapidgeneration.Floodingonabodyofwaterisnormallymeasuredaccordingtoanestablishedfloodstage,whichreferstothelevelatwhichinundationofnormally-dryareasoccurs.Thiselevationcorrespondstoanannualizedlikelihoodofreachingsuchheights.Forexample,aflood

46

stagethathasa1%chanceofbeingreachedorcouldbeexpectedtooccuronceacrossa100-yearperiodwouldencompassalandareareferredtoasthe“100-yearfloodplain”andaneventthatimpactedthisareawouldbecalleda100-yearfloodevent.Typically,structurescontainedwithinareasthatcarrya1%annualizedriskoffloodingareconsideredtoexistwithinthefloodplain.Inmanylocations,climatechangeisaffectingtherecurrenceintervalfortheseheavyprecipitationevents,meaningthatthehistoric1%annualizedriskoffloodingmaynolongerreflectthefutureriskofthoseevents.Thereareseveralclassificationsoffloodsthataredifferentiatedbytheircause,location,andduration,amongotherfactors.FloodtypesthatthreatenLacduFlambeauinclude:

● FlashFlood:Arapidriseinwaterlevelonnormally-drylandwhichoccurswithlittleornowarningduringorimmediatelyfollowingheavyrainfall.Flashfloodingmaymoveathighvelocityandcontainlargeamountsofdebriswhichcanleadtotreesdamage,theunderminingbuildingsandbridges,andscouringofnewchannels.Urbanandbuilt-upareasareatgreatestriskfromflashfloodingduetoremovalofvegetation,coveringofgroundwithimpermeablesurfaces,andtheexistenceofinadequatedrainagesystems.Flashfloodingisalsocalledstormwaterflooding.

● LakeFlooding:Elevatedlakewaterlevelsthatresultinexpansionontolakeshoreareas.● RiverineFlooding:Alsoknownasoverbankflooding,riverinefloodsarethemostcommon

floodeventtype.Theamountoffloodingisafunctionofthesizeandtopographyofthewatershed,theregionalclimate,soilandlandusecharacteristics.Insteepvalleys,floodingisusuallyrapidanddeep,butofshortduration,whilefloodinginflatareasistypicallyslow,relativelyshallow,andmaylastforlongperiods.Thecauseoffloodinginriversistypicallyprolongedperiodsofrainfallfromweathersystemscoveringlargeareas.Thesesystemsmaysaturatethegroundandoverloadthestreamsandreservoirsinthesmallersub-basinsthatdrainintolargerrivers.Annualspringfloodsaretypicallyduetothemeltingofsnowpack.Riverinefloodingcanoccuronsmallerstreamsandwaterwaysandisreferredtoas“UrbanandSmallStreamFlooding”.Suchfloodsaregenerallymorelocalintheirscope,thoughtheremaybenumerousfloodedstreamsacrossawidergeographicareaimpactedbyincreasedprecipitationorhydrologicpressures.Streamsthatpassthroughurbanorbuilt-upareasaremoresusceptibletostreamfloodingduetoincreasedsurfacerunoffandconstrictedchannels.RiverineandstreamfloodinginLacduFlambeautendstobeheaviestinthespringwhenmeltingsnowaddstonormalrunoffandinsummerorearlyfallafterintenserainfalls.Floodingoccursinthespringduetosnowmeltandfrozensoil.

HistoricalAnalysis:VilasCounty,withinwhichthemajorityofthereservationandtheLacduFlambeautowncenterislocated,hasanunremarkablehistoricalrecordwithregardstomajorfloodingevents.Mostofthecounty’sfloodplainsurroundsflowagetypewaterbodiesforwhichwaterlevelsareactivelycontrolled.Pastfloodeventshavecausedonlyminimalpropertyandinfrastructuredamageandhavegenerallybeenclassifiedasminor.Thereishoweverthepotentialforincreasedlevelsofdamageinfutureeventsduetothesignificantnumberofstructuresthatexistinthefloodplain.Inaddition,demandforshorelandpropertyoftenresultsinpressuretodevelopflood-proneplots.FloodriskinLacduFlambeauisgreatestinthespringwhenmeltingsnowaddstonormalrunofforinsummerorearlyfallfollowingintenserainfallthatlastsforseveraldays.

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Buildupfromrunoffcancauseriversandstreamstooverflowstheirbanks.Floodwatersmaytakeaslongastwoweekstorecedeinsuchevents.Fortunately,thetimingandlocationofthistypeoffloodingisfairlypredictableandallowsampletimeforevacuationofpeopleandprotectionofproperty.Understandably,thefloodplainandwatershedareasaremostvulnerabletofloodinginLacduFlambeau.Asof2018,neitherLacduFlambeaunorVilasCountyhaseverhadaclaimsubmittedundertheNationalFloodInsuranceProgram.AlthoughfloodinghasoccurredinVilasCountyinthepast50years,includingin1999duringaFederally-declareddisaster,andin2011asaresultofrapidrainfall(flashfloodingevent),inundationinLacduFlambeauhasbeenlargelylimitedtoroadwaysandculverts.ThemostseverefloodingeventinLacduFlambeauoccurredinAugustof2000asaresultofprolongedpresenceofthunderstorms.Theeventwascharacterizedasurbanandsmall-streamflooding.9TheNOAANationalCentersforEnvironmentalInformationStormEventsDatabaseliststwofloodeventsforLacduFlambeau.Theseinclude:

● August14,2000SeverethunderstormsdevelopedinthevicinityofafrontthatwasstalledacrossnortheastWisconsin.Bowinglinesofthunderstormsandsupercellthunderstormsproducedconsiderablewinddamage,somehail,streetfloodingandabrieftornadotouchdown.Strongwindsdownednumeroustreesandpowerlines.Somehomesweredamagedwhentreesfellonthem.About25,000customerslostelectricalpowerduetothestorms.AtornadotoucheddownbrieflyatLakeTomahawk(Oneidaco.)resultingintreedamage.Heavyrainfallcausedstreetfloodingatseverallocations.

● June11,2017AfternoonthunderstormsdownedtreesandpowerlinesacrosspartsofnorthernWisconsinandproducedtorrentialrainfalltotaling6.5inchesthatcausedstreetfloodingintheLacduFlambeautowncenteraswellasinothernearbycommunities.

9NorthCentralWisconsinRegionalPlanningCommission.2013.VilasCountyAll-HazardsMitigationPlan.VilasCountyEmergencyManagement.

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Figure16:NationalFloodHazarddesignationsfortheLacduFlambeauReservation.FloodHazardLayersareonlyavailableforsomeofthereservation.

MembersoftheTEPCarenotoverlyconcernedwithfloodingcitingprimarilytheflattopographyoftheregionandthesandysoilsforthelowerrisk.TheJune2017flashfloodeventcarriedsomuchwaterthatitoverwhelmedthedowntownsewersystemandcausedtemporarylocalizedflooding.Changingclimateconditionsareprojectedtoincreasethemagnitudeofextremeprecipitationeventsintheregion.VulnerabilityandRiskAssessment:Thethreatoffloodingistypicallynotconsideredacommunity-widethreat.Floodingismostcommonlyassociatedwithfloodplainsorlowlandsadjacenttowaterbodies.LacduFlambeaufloodareasaredelineatedinFEMANationalFloodInsuranceProgram(NFIP)FloodInsuranceRateMaps(FIRMs).FIRMsshowtheSpecialFloodHazardArea(SFHA),definedastheareathatisinundatedduringthebaseflood,alsoknownasthe1-percent-annual-chanceor“100-year”flood.InWisconsin,thebasefloodisalsoreferredtoastheregionalflood.InareaswheretheBaseFloodElevation(BFE)hasbeencalculatedthroughengineeringstudies,itservesastheregulatorybenchmarkforstructureelevationorfloodproofing.Floodinsurancepremiumsaredeterminedbyastructure’selevationinrelationtotheBFE.StatestatutesrefertotheBFEastheregionalfloodelevation;inWisconsin,thefloodprotectionelevationistwofeetabovetheregionalfloodelevation.

49

FloodplainregulationactivitiesinWisconsinareadministeredbytheWisconsinDepartmentofNaturalResources(DNR)FloodplainManagementSection.TheStateofWisconsinhasrequiredcommunitiestoregulatefloodplainssince1968throughChapterNR116oftheWisconsinAdministrativeCode.ThestandardsestablishedinchapterNR116exceedtheminimumstandardssetbytheNFIPinordertoprovideahigherlevelofprotectiontoWisconsinresidents.SomeofthehigherstandardssetbyWisconsinincludetheprohibitionofstructuresinthefloodway,therequirementthatelevatedstructuresbeatleasttwofeetabovetheregionalfloodelevation,andtherequirementthatstructureshavedrylandaccessevenduringflooding.PastfloodingeventsinWisconsinhavetypicallyaffected:

● Infrastructure–floodedpublicfacilities;● Roadways–washouts,inundatedroadways,debrisclean-up;● Residentialstructures–floodedbasements,damagedsepticsystems;● Businesses–lossofcommerce;and● Agriculture-inundatedcropland.

Table10:VulnerabilityandriskassessmentforFloodingsummarizingassessmentandscoresforeachmeasure.

Measure Assessment Value

Probability WhilemajorfloodingeventsarerelativelyrareinLacduFlambeau,minorfloodeventswithmorelocalimpactsshouldbeexpectedtooccurevery15-20years.Thisequatestoapproximately5-7%probabilityinanygivenyear.

3

Trend Climatechangeisincreasingthenumberofprecipitationdaysandthequantityofrainfallinindividualevents.Floodriskisthereforelikelytoincreaseasaresultofclimatechange.

3

Health/PublicSafety

FloodeventsinLacduFlambeaumayimpactpropertybeyondtheroadwayandculvertimpactsseeninpastevents.Whilepotentiallydamagingtoproperty,suchimpactsarehoweverunlikelytoposeasignificantthreattopublichealthandlifesafety.Nolikelyimpact.

0

Home/PropertyDamage

FloodriskinLacduFlambeaupresentsamoderaterisk(11-35homes)forhomeandpropertydamage.

2

Livelihood Impactsonlivelihoodrelatedtofloodedbusinessesand/orhomespresentsalow-levelriskinLacduFlambeau.

1

Infrastructure Transportationinfrastructureismostacutelyimpactedbyfloodevents.However,floodeventshavethepotentialtoimpactgroundwaterquality.

1

RecoveryCosts Recoverycostsrelatedtorepairofpublicfacilitiesandinfrastructure,debrisclearance,andmitigationmaybesignificantintheaftermathofafloodevent.

3

50

Environment Threeexistssignificantriskforenvironmentaldamageinfloodeventsresultingfrominundation,erosion,contamination,oracombinationofthethree.

3

Cultural/Historic Floodwatersimpactinghistoricorculturalfacilitiescanresultinsignificantandpermanentimpacts.

3

GovernmentServices

Governmentservices,notablypublicschoolservices,maybeimpactedforashorttimeintheeventofafloodevent.

1

Business/Agriculture

Floodeventscanresultinroadclosures,inundationanddestructionofcrops,lossofgrazingareas,andlivestockfatalities.

2

RiskAcceptability Assignedbyworkshopparticipants. 2

MitigationPotential

Highexpectedreturnoninvestment. 2

6. SevereWinterStorms/IceStormsBackground:Severewinterstormsareextratropical,cold-weathercyclonicweatherhazardsassociatedwithexcessiveprecipitationofsnow,sleet,andice.Severewinterstormscanimpedeorfullydisrupttravel,areaccompaniedbydangerouslycoldtemperatures,andcancausemanysecondaryhazardsincludingavalanches,snowdrifts,andfloods.Thelonger-termeffectsofsuccessivesnowaccumulationcanbedisastrous:snowmeltsandrunsoffoncetemperaturesbegintorise,leadingtomudslidesandwidespreadflooding.Blizzardsareatypeofseveresnowstormaccompaniedbyverylowtemperatures(below20°F)andhighwinds(35mphorgreater).Icestormscanleadtothedevelopmentofathickglazeoficeontrees,cars,roads,andothersurfaces,makingconditionsextremelyhazardoustomotoristsandpedestrians,andcanleadtopropertydamagefromcollapsedroofs,fallentreesandlimbs,damagedpowerandcommunicationspolesandlines,andotherphysicalandenvironmentalimpacts.Duringaseverewinterstorm,powerandtelecommunicationsmaybedisruptedfordays.Whenseverewinterstormsareaccompaniedorfollowedbyheavyrainfall,snowmeltcanresultwhichcausessuddenandsevereflooding.ThefollowingareNationalWeatherService(NWS)approveddescriptionsofwinterstormelements:

● Heavysnowfall:accumulationofsixormoreinchesofsnowina12-hourperiodoreightormoreinchesina24-hourperiod.

● Blizzard:sustainedwindorfrequentwindgustsofatleast35mphaccompaniedbyconsiderablefallingand/orblowingsnowandvisibilitybelow¼mile.

● Icestorm:freezingrainproducessignificantordamagingaccumulationsofice,usually¼”orthicker.

● Freezingdrizzle/freezingrain:drizzleorrainthatfallsasaliquidbutfreezesintoglazeuponcontactwiththegroundorobjectswithatemperatureof32°Forbelow.

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● Sleet:pelletsoficecomposedoffrozenormostlyfrozenraindropsorrefrozenpartially-meltedsnowflakes.Heavysleetisdefinedassleetaccumulationexceeding½inch.

● Windchill:measureofacceleratedheatlossfromexposedskinduetoincreasedwindspeeds.

● LakeEffectSnow:Snowshowersthatarecreatedwhencold,dryairpassesoveralargewarmerlake,suchasoneoftheGreatLakes,andpicksupmoistureandheatresultinginheavybutlocalizedsnowfall.Thistypeofsnowstormhasthepotentialtobeasignificanthazardorbelifethreatening.

HistoricalAnalysis:WhileheavysnowandicestormshavebeenapartofnearlyeverywinterinLacduFlambeau,trueblizzardsarerarethroughoutWisconsin.Blizzardsaremorelikelytooccurinthenorthwesternpartofthestatethaninthesouth-centralparts,althoughheavysnowfallsismostcommoninthesoutheast.Blizzard-likeconditionsdooftenexistduringheavysnowstormswhengustywindscausethesevereblowinganddriftingofsnow.TheNOAANationalCentersforEnvironmentalInformationreports68winterstormeventsinVilasCountybetweenJanuary1,2001andMay1,2018.Allofthesestormscontainedsomeformofsnow,sleet,freezingrain,oriceconditions.Therecord24-hoursnowfallis24inches,whiletherecordmonthlysnowfallaccumulationis83inches.AnApril13-15,2018blizzarddropped19.5inchesofsnowonLacduFlambeauandupto30inchesinothercommunitiesintheregion.Impactsfromtheheavysnowandhighwinds(upto50mph)includedroadclosures,businessclosures,androofcollapse.VulnerabilityandRiskAssessment:GeographicexposureisrelativelyuniformacrosstheLacduFlambeauReservationandisthereforeconsistentwithcounty-wideassessments.Winterstormspresentasignificantthreattothehealthandsafetyofaffectedcitizensandcanresultinsignificantdamagetopropertyandcommunityandbusinessdisruption.Heavysnoworaccumulatedicecancausethestructuralcollapseofbuildings,disruptinfrastructurenetworks,increasetheprevalenceofmotorvehicleaccidents,andcanisolateresidentsfrommuchneededassistanceandservices.Table11:VulnerabilityandriskassessmentforSevereWinterStorms/IceStormssummarizingassessmentandscoresforeachmeasure.

Measure Assessment Value

Probability Basedonhistoricalfrequency,theLacduFlambeautribeshouldanticipateanaverageof3.7significantwinterweathereventsperyear.Thisequatestoa100%probabilityinanygivenyear.

5

Trend Wisconsinisexperiencingrisingannualaveragetemperaturesasaresultofclimatechange.Whilestatewideincreaseshaveaveraged2.5°Fsince1950,Vilashasseenanincreaseofapproximately1-1.5°F.Asbothtemperatureandprecipitationincreaseduringthewintermonths,freezingrainwillbemorelikely.Additionalwintertimeprecipitationinanyformwillcontributetosaturationandincreasetheriskand/orseverityofspringflooding.Thecombinationoffactorsindicatesarisingtrendinimpactsrelatedtoseverewinterstorms.

3

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Health/PublicSafety

Few(ifany)deathsand/orinjurieshavebeendirectlyattributabletoseverewinterstormsinVilasCounty.Futureriskisassociatedwithautomobileaccidents,slipsandfalls,reducedaccesstoemergencymedicalcare,fallingtreelimbs,andexposuretothecold.

1

HomeDamage Homedamageisassociatedwithfallingtreesandbranches,winddamage,waterdamagefromicedams,waterdamagefromfrozenwaterpipesandLPlines,frozensepticsystems,andexceededroofsnowloads.

1

Livelihood Nolikelyimpact. 0

Infrastructure Thepotentialforprolongeddisruptionofinfrastructureduetodamagedpowerandcommunicationstransmissionlinesexists.

3

RecoveryCosts Costsassociatedwithclearingandtreatingroadsandmanagingdebriscanexceed$500,000insevereevents.

3

Environment Damagestendtobeisolatedandrequireminorremediationactions. 1

Cultural/Historic

Potentialdamagecausedbysnow,ice,and/orwindtoculturalandhistoricsitesand/orfacilities,orthelossofplantsandanimalscriticaltotriballife,presentsalowand/orshort-termthreat.

1

GovernmentServices

Availabilityofkeygovernmentservices,includingschoolsandemergencyservices,maybeimpactedbyseverewinterstorms.Nonessentialservicesmaybeimpactedforseveraldays.

2

Business/Agriculture

Businessimpacts,primarilybusinessinterruption,mayresultfrombrokensupplychains,alossofe-commerce,unavailabilityofutilityservices,physicalaccessproblems,andalossoftourismresources.Stormsthatoccurearlyorlateintheseasoncanimpactcrops.Allwinterstormscanhaveanimpactonthetimberindustry.

3

RiskAcceptability

Assignedbyworkshopparticipants. 2

MitigationPotential

Highexpectedreturnoninvestments 2

7. ForestandWildlandFiresBackground:Chapter26.01oftheWisconsinStateStatutesdefinesforestfiresas“uncontrolled,wild,orrunningfiresoccurringonforest,marsh,field,cutover,orotherlandsinvolvingfarm,city,orvillagepropertyandimprovementsincidentaltotheuncontrolled,wild,orrunningfiresoccurringonforest,marsh,field,cutover,orotherlands.”Theyoftenbeginunnoticed,canspreadquickly,andareusuallysignaledbydensesmokethatcanfilltheairformilesaround.WildfiresinWisconsinareprimarilyhuman-causedbyburningyarddebris,fireworks,arson,orcampfires,forexample.Theycanalsobecausedbynaturaleventslikelightning.

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WildfireclassificationsinWisconsininclude:● Interfaceorintermixfires(alsoknownaswildland-urbaninterfaceorWUIfires):Occurin

areaswherebothvegetationandstructuresprovidefuel.● Firestorms:Occurduringextremeweather(e.g.,hightemperatures,lowhumidity,andhigh

winds)withsuchintensitythatfiresuppressionopportunitiesarelimited.Theseeventstypicallyburnuntiltheweatherorfuelconditionschangetoreducethefirespreadingbehavior.

● Prescribedfires:Occurwiththeintentionalapplicationoffiretowildlandnaturalfuels,underspecificenvironmentalconditions,toaccomplishplannedlandmanagementobjectives.Theyareapartofafuelmanagementstrategyandoneofthemostcomplicatedandcomplexoperationstoimplement.

Wildfiresareoftenasecondaryimpactofotherhazards.Somehazardscausewildfires,someintensifythem,andothersarethemselvesintensifiedbywildfires.InWisconsin,thefollowinghazardsmayinteractwithwildfires,alteringtheconditionsinthefire:

● Severethunderstormwindevents:Higherwindspeedsincreasetherateatwhichwildfiresspread.Therateofspreadvariesdirectlywithwindvelocity.Additionally,highwindsanddownburstscancauseblowdowns,leavingdownedtreesandbranchesasfuelforwildfires.

● Lightning:Acloud-to-groundlightningstrikemaycauseawildfire.● Flooding:Wildfiresclearvegetationfromthelandscape,decreasingthesoil’sabilityto

absorbmoistureandremovingobstructionsthatcouldslowfloodwaters.Thisincreasesthelikelihoodoffloodinginfire-ravagedareas.

● Landslidesandmudslides:Becausewildfiresremovevegetationanddamagesoils,flashrunofferosionismorelikelyandcancontributetolandslidesand/ormudslides.ThoughthisisoflimitedconcerngiventhetopographyoftheLacduFlambeauReservation.

Thefollowingfiguressummarizeboththenumberofwildfiresinandaroundthereservationbetween1980and2013andthecausesofthosefires.

Figure17:NumberofWildfiresperyearontheLacduFlambeauReservationfrom1980-2013.SourceGEOMACWildfiredatabase.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

19851988199019921994199619982000200220042006200820102012

FiresperYear(1980-2013)-LacduFlambeauReservation

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Figure18:DetailedwildfireeventsbycausefortheLacduFlambeauReservationfrom1980-2013.GEOMACWildfireDatabase.Humans(particularlyfireworksorchildrenplaying)weretheprimaryidentifiedcausesofwildfireforthefireswithintheReservation.

ThemajorityofthereservationisclassifiedasWildlandUrbanIntermix.WhiletheareaoftheLacduFlambeauTownisclassifiedasInterface,muchoftherestofthereservationisforestedwithlowdensityhousing.Thereality(ShowninFigure19)isthatawildfireintheregionhasthepotentialtoaffectallsegmentsofthecommunity.

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Figure19:WildlandUrbanInterfacedesignationsfortheLacduFlambeauReservations.AreasshowninRedareInterfaceareas(primarilytheLacduFlambeauTownCenter)whereareasshowninyelloware"Intermix"areaswithhomesandbuildingsthroughouttheforest.Thegrayshadedareasareprimarilyforestwithsomehomesandbuildings(blackdots)scatteredthroughout.

SeveralWisconsincommunitiesparticipateintheFirewiseCommunitiesProgram,whichisamulti-agencyeffortthatbringstogetherstategovernmentoffices,tribes,organizations,firedepartments,andcommunitiestoreducethelossoflife,property,andresourcestowildlandfirebybuildingandmaintainingcommunitiesinawaythatiscompatiblewithnaturalsurroundings.Thisgoalisaccomplishedbyactivelyinvolvinghomeowners,communityleaders,planners,developers,andothersintheefforttodecreasethefireriskbeforeafirestarts.TheFirewiseCommunitiesapproachemphasizescommunityresponsibilityforplanninganddesigningasafecommunity,effectiveemergencyresponse,andindividualresponsibilityforsaferhomedesign,construction,landscaping,andmaintenance.TherearethreemainFirewiseconcernsinfire-proneareas:

1. Buildings:Emphasisisonflammabilityofresidentialbuildings/areasandoutbuildings.2. Surroundingvegetation:Doesthecurrentvegetationhelpspreadfireorpromotefire

suppression?3. Access:Canemergencyvehiclesandworkersservicetheareaif/whenafireisburning?

Therearecurrently11WisconsincommunitiesintheFirewiseprogram,mainlyinthecentralpartofthestate.

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HistoricalAnalysis:Between2000and2009,therewasanannualaverageof70.9wildfiresinVilasCounty,burninganaverageof32acrestotal.TheVilasCountywildfireburnsapproximatelyone-halfacre.Firesremainsmallprimarilyasaresultofrapidresponsefirefightingcapabilities,however,thereexiststheriskforalargefiresuchasa2010fireinConoverthatburnedover30acresanda2012firethatinLandO'Lakesthatburnedover80acres.FireselsewhereinMichiganhaveburnedmuchmorethanthis,includingthe2012DuckLakefirethatburnedover21,000acresanddestroyed136structures.AprilistheleadingmonthforwildfireinVilasCounty,with40%ofallfiresbetween2000and2009occurringthen.Wildfirescanhappeninanymonth,butthelowesthistoricriskhasbeenduringDecember,January,andFebruary.TheTownofLacduFlambeauexperienced484wildfiresbetween2000and2009,whichisthelargestnumberforasinglejurisdictioninthecounty.Thesefiresresultedin132acresburned,whichisalsothehighestinthecounty.VulnerabilityandRiskAssessment:WithinVilasCounty,496,000acresor76%ofallland,isclassifiedasforestland.OntheLacduFlambeauReservation,morethan34,000ofatotal86,573acres(~40%)isclassifiedasforestland.Thepotentialforpropertydamagefromfireincreaseseachyearasmorerecreationalandretirementhomesaredevelopedonwoodedland.Ruralbuildingsmaybemorevulnerablebecauseoflackofaccess.Accesstobuildingsoffmainroadsissometimeslong,narrowdrivewayswithminimalverticalclearancemakingithardforemergencyvehiclestocombatfires.Thesebuildingsalsomaynothavemuchofadefensiblespacebecauseoflittleareabetweenthestructuresthemselvesandhighlyflammablevegetation.ThetrendtowardintroducingmorehumandevelopmentintofireproneareashasbroughtaboutthetermwildlandurbaninterfaceorWUI.TheWUIidentifiesareaswherestructuresandhumandevelopmentmeetorinterminglewithundevelopedwildlands.Itiswithintheseareaswherewildfireposesthegreatestrisktohumanlivesandproperty.Campgroundsarealsoaconcernbecauseofcampfires.VilasCountyhasfederal,state,countyandnumerousprivately-ownedcampgroundsthroughouttheCounty.Thereare121individualcampsitesinLacduFlambeau.TheWDNRhascompletedastatewideevaluationoffirerisk,referredtoastheCARorCommunitiesAtRiskassessment.ThisassessmentusesextensiveDNRgeo-databasestoanalyzeandmaphazardouswoodlandfueltypesandthedegreeoftheintermixingofdevelopmentwithwildlands.Themapsidentifythelevelofriskforeachcommunityonascaleofveryhigh,high,moderate,orlow,andalsohaveacommunityofconcerndesignation.LacduFlambeauhasahigh-risklevel.

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Table12:VulnerabilityandriskassessmentforForestandWildlandFiressummarizingassessmentandscoresforeachmeasure.

Measure Assessment Value

Probability Basedonhistoricalfrequency,theLacduFlambeautribeshouldanticipateanaverageof50eventsperyear.Thisequatestoa100%probabilityinanygivenyear.

5

Trend Wildfireriskisexpectedtoholdrelativelyconstantdespiteincreasedclimatevariabilityandincreasesindevelopmentwithinthewildland-urbaninterface.

2

Health/PublicSafety

WildfiresinLacduFlambeaudonottypicallyresultininjuriesorfatalities.However,thepotentialexistsforalargeand/orfast-movingfiretoresultininjuryordeath,asexperiencedelsewhereintheUnitedStatesinrecentyears.

1

Home/PropertyDamage

Intheeventofamajorfire,manyhomesmaybedamagedordestroyed. 3

Livelihood Amajorfiremayrequireclosureofallplacesofemploymentinthevicinityofthefire.

2

Infrastructure Forestandwildlandfiresoftenimpactnetworkedcriticalinfrastructure,includingpowerandcommunicationstransmissionlinesandpowertransferstations.

2

RecoveryCosts Costsassociatedwithforestfirescanexceed$500,000. 3

Environment Forestandwildlandfiresoftenhaveastartyetmoderateimpactonthenaturalenvironment.Impactscangrowexponentially,however,whenfiresarefollowedbytorrentialrainsandmudslidesresult.

1

Cultural/Historic

Potentialdamagecausedbyforestand/orwildlandfiretoculturalandhistoricsitesand/orfacilities,orthelossofplantsandanimalscriticaltotriballife,presentsamoderatethreat.

2

GovernmentServices

Governmentservicesarenotlikelytobeseverelyimpactedbyamajorfire.

1

Business/Agriculture

Firescanimpactcropsandlivestock,andcausebusinessinterruptioneitherindirectlyasaresultoftransportation,power,andcommunicationsinfrastructureimpacts,ordirectlyasaresultofevacuationorphysicaldamage,

2

RiskAcceptability

Assignedbyworkshopparticipants. 1

MitigationPotential

Highexpectedreturnoninvestments. 2

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8.HazardousMaterialsRelease/Contamination/Run-offBackground:Ahazardousmaterialsincidentcanbedescribedastheuncontrolledreleaseofhazardousmaterialscapableofposingarisktolife,health,safety,property,ortheenvironment.AhazardousmaterialsincidentismostoftenaresultofaccidentsatfixedfacilitiesorduringTransportation.UndertheEmergencyPlanningCitizenRighttoKnowAct(EPCRA),ahazardousmaterialisdefinedasanychemicalthatisaphysicalhazardorhealthhazard[definedat29CFR1910.1200]forwhichtheOccupationalHealthandSafetyAdministration(OSHA)requiresafacilitytomaintainaMaterialSafetyDataSheet(MSDA).UnderEPCRAthereisnospecificlistofhazardousmaterials.Anextremelyhazardoussubstance(EHS)isdefinedasoneofthe356substancesontheUnitedStatesEnvironmentalProtectionAgency(EPA)listofextremelyhazardoussubstances,identifiedat40CFRPart355.EPCRAof1986alsoknownasSARATitleIII,bringsindustry,governmentandthegeneralpublictogethertoaddressemergencyplanningforaccidentalchemicalreleases.Theemergencyplanningaspectrequirescommunitiestoprepareforhazardouschemicalreleasesthroughemergencyplanning.Thisprovidesessentialinformationforemergencyresponders.Thecommunityright-to-knowaspectincreasespublicawarenessofchemicalhazardsintheircommunityandallowsthepublicandlocalgovernmenttoobtaininformationaboutthesechemicalhazards.Hazardousmaterialsareanysolid,liquid,orgasthatcanposeathreattohumanhealthand/ortheenvironmentduetobeingradioactive,flammable,explosive,toxic,corrosive,abiohazard,anoxidizer,anasphyxiant,orcapableofcausingsevereallergicreactions.Thereleaseofhazardousmaterialscanleadtopropertydamage,short-andlong-termhealtheffects,seriousinjuries,andevendeath.Emergencyresponsetoincidentsinvolvingthereleaseofhazardousmaterialsmayrequirefire,lawenforcement,searchandrescue,andhazardousmaterialsunits.Thevastmajorityofreportedhazardousmaterialsincidentsresultfromtheloading,unloading,andtransportationofhazardousmaterials.LacduFlambeauparticipatesintheVilasCountyLocalEmergencyPlanningCommittee(LEPC),whichisacounty-levelrequirementandhasbeenestablishedinaccordancewithfederallegislation.ItisresponsibleforimplementationofEPCRAatthecountylevel,inclusiveofthedevelopmentofaCountyHazardousMaterialsResponsePlan.Thisplanestablishespoliciesandproceduresforrespondingtohazardousmaterialincidents.TheLEPCisrequiredtoreview,test,andupdatethePlaneverytwoyears.Methodsfornotificationandreportinganincidentareoutlinedintheplan,whichistestedthroughtabletop,functionalandfull-scaleexercisesandactualresponsesituations.Toprovideahighlevelofhazardousmaterialsresponsecapabilitiestolocalcommunities,WisconsinEmergencyManagementcontractswitheightRegionalor"LevelA"HazardousMaterialsResponseTeams.TheRegionalteamforVilasCountyislocatedatWausau.TheRegionalResponseTeammaybeactivatedforanincidentinvolvingahazardousmaterialsspill,leak,explosion,injuryorthepotentialofimmediatethreattolife,theenvironment,orproperty.

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TheRegionalor"LevelA"Teamrespondtothemostseriousofspillsandreleasesrequiringthehighestlevelofskinandrespiratoryprotectivegear.Thisincludesallchemical,biological,orradiologicalemergencies.Countyor“LevelB”Teamsrespondtochemicalincidentswhichrequirealowerlevelofprotectivegearbutstillexceedthecapabilitiesofstandardfiredepartments.Currently,thereare36countiesthathavea“LevelB”team.ThoseteamsmayprovideassistancetosurroundingcountiesandareapprovedbythelocalEmergencyPlanningCommittees.VilasCountycontractswithOneidaCounty's“LevelB”HazardousResponseTeamwhichismadeupoffirepersonnelfromtheRhinelanderFireDepartmentandareavolunteerfiredepartments.Inadditiontothe“LevelB”hazardousResponseteam,membersfromtheRhinelanderFireDepartmentarealsoa“LevelA”ChemicalAssessmentTeam(CAT)fortheWausauRegionalor“LevelA”Team.TheseHazMatTeamshavethecapabilitiestorespondtoincidentsthatrequireahighdegreeofpersonalprotectionandrespiratoryprotection.Notethatonekeyconcern,ahazardousspillontheLacduFlambeauReservation,istheresponsetimefromeithertheCounty“LevelB”(estimatedresponsetimefourhours)orRegional“LevelA”team(estimatedresponsetimesixhours).Thisextendedperiodoftimemayallowthedispersalofhazardouschemicalsintotheenvironmentespeciallyiftheyareairborneorreleasedintoawaterbody.HistoricalAnalysis:Mosthazardousmaterialsincidentsaresosmallthattheyfallbelowthethresholdforreportingandarethereforenottracked.WithinVilascounty,therehavebeenanaverageof3to4incidentsperyearreported.WithinLacduFlambeau,therehasbeen1majorhazardousmaterialsspillrequiringresponsefromaLevelBHazardousMaterialsResponseTeam.ThiseventoccurredonAugust12,2005andinvolvedaspillof40gallonsofhazardousmaterialsasaresultofatransportationaccident.Between1978and2017,therewereatotalof60hazardousmaterialsincidentsinLacduFlambeau.Twenty-threeoftheseweretheresultofleakingstoragetanks,15wererelatedtomaterialsspills,and22wereeventsforwhichnoactionwasrequired.10Table13:SummaryofrecordedHazardousMaterialspills,releases,orleaksintheLacduFlambeauRegion1978-2017.

EventName Location StartDate EndDate EventType

HWY70 STH70 1978-10-04 1999-09-28 SPILL

3055HWYH 3055CTHH 1986-09-02 1987-11-06 SPILL

CHIPPEWALODGE 3525CHIPPEWALODGETR 1989-07-19 1989-08-25 SPILL

10WisconsinDepartmentofNaturalResources,BureauforRemediationandRedevelopmentTrackingSystem(BRRTS),2018.

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FLAMBEAUMOBILSTATION 701PEACEPIPELN 1990-06-06 2003-04-25 LUST

LACDUFLAMBEAUTNHALL 109OLDABERD 1990-12-14 1997-12-17 LUST

SCHILLEMANRESIDENCE 14809ARTISONLN 1991-05-08 1995-04-21 LUST

GRIZZLYBILLS 1420STH70W 1992-04-30 1995-06-15 LUST

TOWERMOTEL 14277STH70W 1992-08-24 2001-12-05 LUST

SNARSKI/BISSELL(RITCHIEOIL) 1653SEVENOAKSLN 1992-09-05 1998-06-25 ERP

1653SEVENOAKSLN 1653SEVENOAKSLN 1992-09-05 1998-06-25 SPILL

KUREK(FMRJANOTTAPROP.) 3089KIBONIKIRD 1993-03-26 1994-04-29 LUST

PATTERSONTOM 11795STH70W 1993-05-21 1994-11-17 ERP

VALSAUTO&BOATREPAIR 2851STH47S 1993-09-13 1994-08-29 LUST

KEENANIRENE 1795CTHD 1993-11-09 1994-08-29 ERP

BOBIDOSH(FMRSINCLAIROIL) STH47&CTHHNWCNR 1993-11-18 1995-09-28 LUST

LACDUFLAMBEAUTNHALL 109OLDABERD 1994-06-01 1995-10-20 LUST

STANTHONYSCHURCH 650OLDABERD 1994-08-11 1995-01-30 LUST

14257HWY70W 14257STH70W 1994-09-16 1994-09-15 SPILL

TIMBERLANDTOWER 14257STH70W 1994-09-19 1997-01-02 LUST

FENCELAKELODGE 12919FRYINGPANCAMP 1995-06-02 1996-02-23 LUST

DILLMANSSANDLAKELODGE 3305SANDLKLODGERD 1995-09-19 2002-09-06 LUST

K&MMINI-MART 2855STH47 1996-05-30 2005-09-07 LUST

FRANCOISKENPROPERTY 1870WSTH47 1996-06-27 0000-00-00 LUST

LDFTRIBALCAMPGROUND 2501STH47 1996-08-07 2000-07-20 LUST

PATTERSONLUMBERCO(FMR) 11795STH70W 1997-02-01 2003-07-29 LUST

TOWERSTANDARDSERVICE 14267STH70W 1997-05-07 0000-00-00 LUST

NIIJIICENTER 838WHITEFEATHERST 1997-12-09 2000-04-07 LUST

FLAMBEAUBUS(FORMER) 736OLDABERD 1998-02-26 2001-09-05 LUST

YUKONCOUNTRYSTORE 2641STH47 1998-03-11 2003-06-30 LUST

WATSONSHOLIDAYBEACHRESORT

3315SANDLAKELODGE 1999-05-17 1999-12-22 LUST

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LAMPOPROPERTY 1359WSQUAWLAKERD 2005-07-18 2010-07-19 LUST

SCHROMEXCAVATINGACCDNT CTHD&SILVERBEACHRD 2005-08-12 2005-08-12 SPILL

WILLIAMWYSSPROPERTY 1525CTHF 2006-09-03 2006-09-08 SPILL

RAYCORULLOSPILL STH70(1/2MWOFCTHD) 2008-12-23 2009-06-08 SPILL

WIPUBLICSERVICECORPSPILL 1233AKIWENSIDR 2010-08-02 2010-10-08 SPILL

WIPUBLICSERVICE(WPS)SPILL 12190WARPATHLN 2010-10-29 2010-12-20 SPILL

HILGYLPGASSPILL 1755EFENCELAKERD 2012-10-24 2012-10-24 SPILL

WISCONSINPUBLICSERVICE 2732MAANGAVE 2016-07-30 2016-08-19 SPILL

VulnerabilityandRiskAssessment:HazardousmaterialsriskinLacduFlambeauexistsasaresultofmultiplesources,including:

● Storageofhazardousmaterialsatcommercialandprivatefacilities(e.g.,gasstation,privateworkshop),includingLeakingUndergroundStorageTank(LUST)incidents;

● Transportofhazardousmaterialsonroadsandhighways;● Useofhazardousmaterialsinmining,agriculture,commercial,andotheroperations;● Flood-drivenrunoffofchemicalsintosurfaceandgroundwater;and● Transportofhazardousmaterials(petroleum)viapipeline(inVilasCounty-thereareno

pipelinesontheLacduFlambeaureservation)

Table14:VulnerabilityandriskassessmentforHazardousMaterialsRelease/Contamination/Run-offsummarizingassessmentandscoresforeachmeasure.

Measure Assessment Value

Probability Between1978and2017,therewere38hazardousmaterialsincidentsrequiringactiontocleanuporotherwiseremediatetheincident.Thisgivesafrequencyofslightlylessthanoneeventperyear.

4

Trend Hazardeventfrequencyisunlikelytochangesignificantlyasaresultofclimatechangeordevelopmentpatterns.

2

Health/PublicSafety

Thevastmajorityofhazardousmaterialseventshavehadnoimpactonhumanhealthorlifesafety.Futureeventsdohavethepotentialtoimpactlifesafety,especiallyintheeventofatransportationaccident.

1

Home/PropertyDamage

Exceptinghazardousmaterialsspillsthatoriginatefromandcausedamagetothesameprivateproperty,thereisanegligiblelong-termthreattohomesand/orprivatepropertyasaresultofhazardousmaterialsspillsinLacduFlambeau.Nolikelyimpact.

0

Livelihood Nolikelyimpact. 0

Infrastructure Beyondtemporaryroadclosureswithinsmallgeographiclimits,threeareunlikelytoimpactinfrastructure.

0

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RecoveryCosts Remediationcostsfromhazardousmaterialsspills,notablythosethataffectgroundwater,maybesignificantlymorethanthethresholdforthismeasure.

3

Environment Contaminationofsoilandgroundwatermayhaveprofoundeffectsonlocalfloraandfaunaandontheuseofsuchresourcesbythecommunity.

3

Cultural/Historic Tribalpracticesandtraditionsmaybesignificantlyandpermanentlyimpactedbycontaminationoflandandwaterways.

3

GovernmentServices

Nolikelyimpact. 0

Business/Agriculture

Nolikelyimpact. 0

RiskAcceptability Assignedbyworkshopparticipants. 3

MitigationPotential

Highexpectedreturnoninvestment. 2

9.Tornado/HighWindBackground:Atornadoisaviolentlyrotatingcolumnofair(vortex)extendingfromthebaseofaconvectivecloud(usuallycumulonimbus)totheground.TornadoesinWisconsinaremostcommonlyassociatedwiththepresenceofintensesqualllinesandsupercellthunderstorms.Tornadoescanbeclassifiedassupercellornon-supercell.Supercelltornadoesarederivedfromsupercellthunderstormsofwhichakeycomponentisarotatingupdraft.Thesetornadoescanbedevastating.Non-supercelltornadoesareformedbyaspinningcolumnofairnearthegroundandtendtobeshort-livedandweakerthansupercelltornadoes.Non-supercelltornadoesincludegustnadoes,landspouts,andwaterspouts.AlthoughmostU.S.tornadoeslastlessthantenminutes,theycanpersistformorethananhour.Thetornadoes’pathscanrangeinlengthfromafewhundredfeettoseveralmiles,andtheirwidthsmayrangefromtensofyardstooneortwomiles.TornadointensityismeasuredusingtheEnhancedFujitaTornadoScale(EF-Scale,seeFigure20),whichisbasedonwindspeedsdata.

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Straight-linewinds,whicharealsoassociatedwiththunderstorms,causedamagesthataresimilartothosecausedbytornadoesandarethereforeoftenconfusedwiththem.Straight-linewindsareconsidered“severe”ifmovingatorover58milesperhour.Differentcategoriesofstraight-linewindsinclude:

● Downdrafts:Small-scalecolumnsofairthatrapidlysinktowardtheground(a“downburst”isaresultofastrongdowndraft).

● Downbursts:Strongdowndraftswithhorizontaldimensionslargerthan2.5milesresultinginanoutwardburstofdamagingwindswhereitmeetstheground.Downburstdamagecanbeassevereasthatwhichresultsfromastrongtornado.

● Microbursts:Smallconcentrateddownbursts,generallylessthanfourkilometersacross,lastingonlyfivetotenminutes,andwithmaximumwindspeedsof168mph.Microburstscanbewetordry,withwetmicroburstsaccompaniedbyheavysurfaceprecipitation,anddrymicroburstsoccurringwithlittleornoprecipitationreachingtheground.

● Gustfronts:Theleadingedgeofrain-cooledairthatmeetsthewarmairofathunderstorm.Gustfrontsarecharacterizedbyawindshift,temperaturedrop,andgustywindsoutaheadofathunderstorm.

● Derechos:Widespreadthunderstormwindeventscausedwhennewthunderstormsformalongtheleadingedgeoftheouterboundaryofthestorm-cooledair.Thesephenomenatypicallyoccurinthesummerwhenthunderstormsformoverthewideplains.Derechos,

Figure20:EnhancedFujita(EF)Ratings,windspeeds,andexpecteddamages.

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whichoftenproducesevererainfall,canproducestrongwindsthatpersistforalongtimeandcoveraverylargegeographicarea.

● Bowechoes:Thesewindsgettheirnamefromthebow-shapedappearancetheymakeonradardisplays.Damagingstraight-linewindsoftenoccurnearthecrest,orcenter,ofabowecho,whichcanextendover300kilometersinlength,lastforseveralhours,andproduceextensiveswathsofwinddamageontheground.11

HistoricalAnalysis:VilasCountyhasexperienced14tornadoessince1964.Ofthese,onetornadoimpactedLacduFlambeau.Thefollowingdescriptionofthese14eventswasproducedbytheNationalWeatherService:

● May4,1964TheF/EF-1tornadowasfirstreported10milessouthwestofSt.Germainaround6pmCST.Thetornadotravelledjustover7milesbeforedissipatinginSt.Germainat6:10pmCST.Thetornadohadamaximumwidthof125yards.ThelocalstormreportindicatedthetornadotoucheddowntwiceandcrossedovertheBigSt.Germaindrawingwatertoaheightof200feet.Therewasconsiderabledamagetoresortsandwoodsinthepathofthetornado.

● June26,1969Accordingtothelocalstormreport,theF/EF-1tornadoskippednortheastthroughtheforestsofPrice,southeastIronandwesternVilasCounties.ThetornadostruckVilasCountyfrom2mileswestofManitowishWatersaround4:30pmCSTandmovedtothreemilessouthwestofPresqueIsle.MostofthedamageoccurredaroundManitowishWaters.

● June26,1969TheF/EF-2tornadoformednearLacDuFlambeauaround5pmCSTandskippednortheastfornearly29miles.ThetornadodissipatedalongtheMichiganborder9milesnorthwestofLandO’Lakes.Maximumwidthofthetornadowas35yards.ResortareasfromFenceLakenortheastwardacrossBigCrookedandHighLakessuffereddamage.

● July7,1970TheF/EF-1tornadodevelopedacrossIronCountyinnorthwestWisconsin.Thetornadotravelledeastsoutheastwardfornearly38milesacrossVilasCountyaround7pmCST.ThetornadotravelledfromWinchestertoBoulderJunctiontoConover.Extensivedamagetowoodsandlakepropertywerenotedinthepathofthetornado.

● July12,1973TheF/EF-1tornadowasstrucktouchdownjustsouthofBoulderJunctionaround3amCST.Thetornadowas100yardswideandtravelled19.5milesbeforedissipatingnearSayner.Scattereddamagetothewoodswasreportedalongthepathofthetornado.

● June13,1981TheF/EF-1tornadotoucheddownatCountyHighwayNaboutahalfmilenorthSayner.ThetornadomovedeastforthreemilesthroughthedenseforestandcrosstheintersectionofHighwayNandHighwayGthendissipated.Thetornadodamagedelectriclines,telephonepolesandtrees.Thetornadowasfiftyyardswide.

● July3,1983TheEagleRiverMunicipalAirportwashitbytheF/EF-1tornadoat4:39amCST.Thetornadowas20yardswideandtravelledahalfmilebeforedissipating.Twosingleengineplanesweredestroyed,andthirteenothersweredamaged.Fiveeighthsinchropesholdingtheplanesdownwereshredded.Oneplanecartwheeledfourhundredfeet.

11Coppola,DamonP.2015.IntroductiontoInternationalDisasterManagement,3rdEdition.Elsevier.Burlington.https://amzn.to/2w3haWF.

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● April27,1984TheF/EF-3tornadodevelopednearFawnLakeinOneidaCountyaround2:37pmCST.ThetornadotravelledtonearStarLakeinVilasCountybeforedissipatingaround3:07pmCST.Thetornadoleveledseveralthousandacresofforest,destroyedordamaged80homesandcabins,rippedupdocksandtossedboatsintheairorwrappedthemaroundtrees.AFawnLakemanwaskilledaftergettinghisfamilytosafety.ThehardesthitareaswereFawnLake,TwoLakes,HasbrookandGilmoreLakesinOneidaCounty.InVilasCounty,thehardesthitareaswereSt.GermainLake,LostLakeandStarLake.Thetornadotravelled29milesandreachedamaximumwidthof880yards.

● July24,1986TheF/EF-1tornadobrieflytoucheddownaround2:15pmCSTonSouthShoreDrivenearLittleSt.GermainLakenearSt.Germain.Thetornadowas50yardswideandtravelledaquarterofamile.Fivebuildings,somegarages,someboatsanddocksweredamaged.Adozentreesweresnappedoffatthebase.

● July29,1988ThebrieftornadotoucheddownintheEagleRiveraround8:30pmCST.Thetornadowas50yardswideandonlytravelledatenthofamile.TheF/EF-1tornadodamagedtheNorthlandPinesHighSchoolinEagleRiver.WindsaccompanyingthestormdownedsignsandtreesintheEagleRiverarea.

● August1,1988TheF/EF-1tornadotouchedonemilewestofSt.Germainaround6:52pmCST.Thetornadowas50yardswideandtravelledonemile.ThetornadocausedfallingtreestodamagecarsandbuildingsonemilewestofSt.Germain.Anothertornado(F/EF-0)wasreportedat7:22pmCSTtwomilessoutheastofEagleRiver.

● August1,1988Abrieftornado(F/EF-0)occurred2milessoutheastofEagleRiveraround7:22pmCST.Thetornadowas25yardswideandtravelledthreetenthsofamile.Thetornadodamagedsometrees.

● April26,1994TheF/EF-1tornadotoucheddownamileandahalfnorthofConoveraround2:55pmCST.Thetornadowas150yardswideandtravelledfourandahalfmilesbeforedissipating3milessoutheastofLandO’Lakesaround3:05pmCST.ThetornadodamagedahousejustnorthofConoverandleveledhundredsoftreesalongitsfourandahalfmilepathintotheNicoletNationalForest.

● July14,1995ThetornadotoucheddownamileandahalfsouthwestofPhelpsaround4:40pmCST.TheF/EF-1tornadowas250yardswideandtravelledeastforthreeandahalfmilesbeforedissipatingjustsoutheastofPhelpsat4:47pmCST.Treesfelloncars,homesandbusinesses.

TherewerenotornadoesreportedinVilasCountybetween1995and2017.However,severalstrongwind,funnelcloud,dustdevil,andhighwindeventsthathaveoccurred:

• July27,2010-AcoldfrontcombinedwithawarmandhumidairmasstotriggerthunderstormsthatmovedacrossnortheastWisconsin.Thestormsproducedhailtogolfballsize,windguststo95mph,funnelcloudsandheavyrainfallthatledtoflashflooding.Downedtreesandpowerlineswerecommon,andthousandsofhomeslostpower.

• May22,2011-Severethunderstormsproducedhighwinds,largehail,andatornadoacrosscentralandnortheastWisconsin.Unstableaircombinedwithasurfaceboundaryandanupperairdisturbancetoproducethunderstorms.Stormsbecamesevereduringtheafternoonandearlyevening,causingnumerousincidentsoflargehailandisolatedstraight-linewinddamage.Along-tracktornadomovedfromwesternWisconsinintothecentralpartofthestate,snappingoruprootingmanyhundredsoftreesanddamagingseveralbuildingsandfarmequipment.AfunnelcloudwasspottedinLacduFlambeau.

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VulnerabilityandRiskAssessment:Wisconsinliesalongthenorthernedgeofthenation'smaximumfrequencybeltfortornados,knownas"TornadoAlley".VilasCountyandLacduFlambeauTribalLandsaremostlyrural.Moredenselysettledareasaremorevulnerablethanlesser-populatedareasbecausepeopleandpropertymaybeconcentratedinthestormortornado’spath.Thoselivinginmobilehomesorworkingandattendingschoolinprefabricatedstructuresareatgreatestriskbecausethesestructuresaremoreeasilydestroyed.TheNationalWeatherServiceclaimsthatbetween1985and1998,40percentofalldeathsintheUnitedStatesfromtornadoesoccurredinmobilehomes,comparedto29percentinpermanenthomes,and11percentinvehicles.AccordingtotheU.S.CensusBureau,onlyabout1.8%oftheoccupiedhousingunits(1712)inLacduFlambeauaremobilehomes.Inadditiontomobilehomes,therearemanyotherareasthatarevulnerabletotornadoessuchascampgrounds.Campgroundsarevulnerablebecausetypicallythereislittleornoeffectiveshelteravailabletothoseusingthesite.Youthcampsoperatingintheareapresentasimilarvulnerability.Thereareapproximately121campsitesinLacduFlambeau,whichtogetheraccommodateupto424persons.12VilasCountyexperiencesatornadoorstrongwindeventevery4.4years.Theimpactofeventsisnotuniformacrosstheentiregeographicarea,andthereforelikelihoodriskinLacduFlambeauconstitutes15%ofthecounty,andthereforeshouldassumeanimpactlikelihoodof1eventper25years.TornadoesthathaveoccurredinVilasCountyhavecausedbetween$0and$25millioninpropertydamage.Theexpectedlossinanysingleeventhasbeenestimatedas$1.9million.13Table15:VulnerabilityandriskassessmentforTornado/HighWindsummarizingassessmentandscoresforeachmeasure.

Measure Assessment Value

Probability Basedonhistoricalfrequency,theLacduFlambeautribeshouldanticipateanaverageof1eventevery25years.Thisequatestoa.04%probabilityinanygivenyear.

2

Trend Researchontheimpactofclimatechangeontornadoandhighwindfrequencyandseverityremainsinconclusive.

2

Health/PublicSafety

Tornadoesrepresentasignificantlifesafetyriskforanyoneinastructurewithoutatornado-safeshelter(e.g.,asaferoom).However,atornadowilllikelyimpactalimitedphysicalareathatfallswithinthetornado'strack,andnotthereservationasawhole.

2

HomeDamage Homesdirectlyimpactedbyatornadoaretypicallydestroyed.Thoseintheimmediatevicinityaredamagedbyflyingdebris.

2

12VilasCounty.2013.VilasCountyAllHazardsMitigationPlan.13VilasCounty.2013.VilasCountyAllHazardsMitigationPlan.

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Livelihood Ifatornadostrikesthereservation’scentralbusinessdistrict,therewillbemoderatetohighlivelihoodimpacts.

2

Infrastructure Pasttornadoesandstrongwindeventshavedamagedpowerandcommunicationstransmissionlinesandhaveblockedprimaryandsecondaryroadways.

2

RecoveryCosts Costsassociatedwithtornadoesandstrongwindscanexceed$500,000inanysingleevent.

3

Environment Tornadoescanhaveamoderateimpactonforestswhenmanytreesarefelled.

2

Cultural/Historic

Potentialdamagecausedbyhighwindsoratornadotoculturalandhistoricsitesand/orfacilities,orthelossofplantsandanimalscriticaltotriballife,presentsamoderatethreat.

2

GovernmentServices

Tornadoeventsarefleeting,lastingaveryshorttime,andgovernmentservicesarelikelytoberesumedwithinonedayifimpacted.

1

Business/Agriculture

Tornadoescanhaveasignificantimpactonareabusinessesifmajorroadwaysorbusinessdistrictsareclosedforrecovery.Lossofutilitiesortransportationaccesswillalsoimpactbusinesses.Tornadowindscandevastatecrops.

3

RiskAcceptability

Assignedbyworkshopparticipants. 2

MitigationPotential

Mitigationinvolvesenhancedtracking,warning,andnotificationsystem;publiceducation;andincreaseduseoftornado-safebuildingtechnology.

2

10. ExtremeHeatBackground:Majordiversionsinaverageseasonaltemperaturescancauseinjuries,fatalities,andmajoreconomicimpactswhentheyareprolongedorcoincidewithothernaturalortechnologicalevents.Extremeheat,calledaheatwave,occurswhentemperaturesoftenormoredegreesabovetheaveragehightemperaturepersistacrossageographicregionforseveraldaysorweeks.Humidormuggyconditions,whichaddtothediscomfortofhightemperatures,canoccurwhena“dome”ofhighatmosphericpressuretrapshazy,dampairclosetotheground.Excessivelydryconditionsthatcoincidewithextremeheatcanprovokewindandduststorms.Whenlittlerainoccursinconjunctionwithextremeheat,droughtsarelikelytooccur.Extendedperiodsofwarm,humidweathercancreatesignificantrisksforpeople,particularlytheelderlywhomaylackairconditioningorproperinsulationorventilationintheirhomes.Animalsarealsoatriskduringextendedperiodsofheatandhumidity.TheNationalWeatherServiceissuesaHeatAdvisorywhentheHeatIndexrangesfrom105°Fto114°Fdaytimeandremainsatorabove80°Fatnight,duringa24-hourperiod.Theheat

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indexcombinestheeffectsofheatandhumiditytobetterreflecttheriskofwarmweathertopeopleandanimals.Whenheatandhumiditycombinetoreducetheamountofevaporationofsweatfromthebody,outdooractivitybecomesdangerousevenforthoseingoodshape.Theindexmeasurestheapparenttemperatureintheshade.Peopleexposedtothesunwouldexperienceanevenhigherapparenttemperature.Aheatindexof105°Fisconsidereddangerousandprolongedexposurecanresultinheatstroke,exhaustionandcramps.Peopleshouldberemindedtouseextremecautionwhentheheatindexisbetween95°Fand105°F.Aheatindexof95°Foccurswhenthetemperatureis90°Fdegreesandtherelativehumidityis50percent.Whenextremeheatconditionsareforecast,theNationalWeatherService(NWS)warnspeopleandagenciestotakeprecautions:

● ExcessiveHeatOutlook:Issuedwhenconditionsforanexcessiveheateventmayoccurinthenextthreetosevendays;providesinformationforthosewhoneedtoplanforheat(emergencymanagement,publichealthofficials,utilitycompanies,etc.).

● ExcessiveHeatWatch:Issuedwhenconditionsforanexcessiveheateventwilloccurinthenext12to48hours.

● ExcessiveHeatAdvisory:Issuedwhenthedaytimeheatindexisexpectedtoexceed100°Finthenext36hours;oriftheheatindexisexpectedtoexceed95°Fforfourconsecutivedays.

● ExcessiveHeatWarning:Issuedwhentheheatindexisexpectedtoexceed105°Fduringthedayand75°Fthroughoutthenightinthenext36hours;oriftheheatindexisexpectedtoexceed100°Fforfourconsecutivedays.

Figure21:HeatWarningsforfrontlineorvulnerablepopulationsbasedontemperatureandhumiditylevels.Source:NOAA,NWS.2018HeatIndex.https://www.weather.gov/safety/heat-index

HistoricalAnalysis:ThereturnintervalforextremeheateventsinLacduFlambeauisthesameashasbeencalculatedacrossallofVilasCounty,onemajorincidentever13years(basedonhistoricaldata).Thatsaid,theStateofWisconsinexperiencedanaverageof10heatwavedaysperyearduringthe2000s,andthisnumberisexpectedtoincreaseto35

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peryearby2030,and60peryearby2050.14Withsummertemperaturesprojectedtorisebetween5.0°Fand7.1°Fby2050,hotsummerdaysarealsolikelytoincrease.WithintheResilienceInitiativeprojectboundarysummarydaysover90°Fareprojectedtoincreasebetween18and37daysayear.VulnerabilityandRiskAssessment:AccordingtoWisconsinEmergencyManagement,excessiveheathasbecomethedeadliesthazardinWisconsininrecenttimes.Extremeheatincidentsoccuracrosslargegeographicareas,oftenseveralstatesatonce.Theseeventsthereforeaffectalllivingthingswithintheimpactedarea,includinglivestock,wildanimals,pets,andcrops.Eldersandyouthareathighestriskofheatrelatedinjuries,whichcanleadtodeath.Electricalinfrastructureisoftenaffectedbyheatwaves,whetherfromdamagedtransmissionlines,exceededdemand,orothereffects.WithinVilasCounty,LacduFlambeaufaceshigherthanaveragevulnerabilitytoheat-relatedevents.

Figure22:Heatrelatedvulnerabilitybycensusblockgroup.VilasCountyandtheLacduFlambeauReservationareinthetwohighestcategoriesofrelativevulnerabilityfortheregion.Source:DepartmentofHealthServices,BureauofEnvironmentalandOccupationalHealth8/2015https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/publications/p01084-vilas.pdf.

14ClimateCentral.2018.StatesatRisk:Wisconsin.http://statesatrisk.org/wisconsin/extreme-heat.

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Table16:VulnerabilityandriskassessmentforExtremeHeatsummarizingassessmentandscoresforeachmeasure.

Measure Assessment Value

Probability Approximately10heatwavedaysoccurininWisconsineachyear,givinganalmost100%likelihoodofoccurrenceinanygivenyear.

5

Trend Thenumberofheatwavedaysisincreasingonaccountofclimatechange.

3

Health/PublicSafety

ExtremeheateventscausemorefatalitiesthananyotherhazardinWisconsin.Withoutrelieffromtheextremeweather,vulnerablepeoplecansufferfromheatexhaustion,heatstroke,ordeath.

1

Home/PropertyDamage

Nolikelyimpact. 0

Livelihood Nolikelyimpact. 0

Infrastructure Prolongedextremeheateventscanleadtopoweroutages. 1

RecoveryCosts Nolikelyimpact. 0

Environment Extremeheateventscanhaveasignificantimpactonplants,crops,waterresources,andanimals.

2

Cultural/Historic Plants,animals,andnaturalresourcesutilizedintribalpracticesandtraditionsmaybeimpactedduringprolongedperiodsofextremeheat.

1

GovernmentServices

Governmentservices,namelyaccesstopublicschool,maybeimpactedduringprolongedperiodsofextremeheat.

2

Business/Agriculture

Exceptingduringperiodsofconcurrentdrought,extremeheatwillhavelittletoNolikelyimpact.onbusinessandagriculture.

0

RiskAcceptability Assignedbyworkshopparticipants. 2

MitigationPotential

Highexpectedreturnoninvestments. 2

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11. ExtremeColdBackground:Extremecoldtemperatures,whichmaybefleetingormaypersistfordaysorweeks,canhaveseverenegativeconsequences.Coldtemperaturesareconsidered‘extreme’whenasignificantdropbelowtheaveragelowtemperaturefortheareaisobserved,andtheseconditionsarelikelytocauseadverseeffectstounpreparedpeople,animals,andproperty.Theriskfromextremecoldstemsfromthepossibilitythatittriggershealthemergenciesinsusceptiblepopulations,suchasthosewhoarewithoutshelterorstranded,orwholiveinahomethatispoorlyinsulatedorwithoutheat.Windchill,whichisameasureofapparenttemperaturerelativetoactualtemperaturebasedonobservedwindspeed,canexacerbatetheeffectsofextremecold(seeFigure23).Hypothermiaisadangerousconditionthatisobservedmuchmorefrequentlyduringperiodsofextremecold.Extremecoldcancausedamagetostructuresfromfrozenpipes,includingfuellines,andmayleadtoburstingorbreakage.Firesarecommonduringperiodsofextremecoldbecausemorepeopleusefireplacestoheattheirhomes.Thiseffectisincreasedwhenpoweroutagesaccompanytheextremecold.Carbonmonoxidepoisoningisanotherrelatedhazardofindoorwood-fireheat.Withextendedperiodsofextremecold,secondaryenvironmentalhazardsmayarise,suchasicejamsorshovesonmajorwaterways.Floodingbehindthejammedicecanbedisastrous,especiallyinconjunctionwiththeextremelycoldtemperaturesthatthreatenanyonewithoutshelter.Equipmentandinfrastructurerequiredforheating,transportation,powergenerationandtransmission,andotherservicesmaynotbefunctionalinextremelycoldconditions.Roadwayscanbecomemoredangerousatverylowtemperatures(below-20)becausesaltisnolongerabletomelttheice.Whilewildanimalsaretypicallyabletocopewiththecoldweather,petsarehighlysusceptibletofrostbiteandhypothermia.

Figure23:WildChillandrelativetemperatures.Source:NationalWeatherService

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HistoricalAnalysis:VilasCounty,andLacduFlambeauspecifically,experiencesomeofthecoldestaveragetemperaturesinWisconsin(seeFigure24).15Ahistoricalandmediasearchfindsthatnotableperiodsofextremecoldoccurredin1912,1936,1951,1982,1994,1996,1999,2006,2007,2014and2018.16,17InJanuaryof2014,windchilltemperaturesreached55belowzero,knockingoutpowertomanyresidents,forcingtheclosureofschools,governmentandcommunityservices(e.g.,theRhinelanderFoodPantry,MealsonWheels,andtheKidsinNeedcommunityserviceproject),andrequiringtheLacduFlambeaugovernmentandothersinVilasCountytoopenwarmingshelters.Thiseventcoincidedwithapropaneshortage,whichincreasedhealthandsafetyriskduetothefactthatsomanyhomesrelyonpropaneforheatingneeds.Manyresidentswereforcedtoseekshelterincommunitysheltersorwithfriendsandneighbors.Morebroadlyacrossthestate,impactsincludedfrozenwaterintakesatmajorenergyutilities.VulnerabilityandRiskAssessment:GeographicexposureisrelativelyuniformacrosstheLacduFlambeauReservation.Amongresidents,theeldersandveryyoungchildren,thosewithfunctionalandcognitiveneeds,andthoseinlowincomehouseholdsareatgreatestrisk.Table17:VulnerabilityandriskassessmentforExtremeColdsummarizingassessmentandscoresforeachmeasure.

Measure Assessment Value

Probability Basedonhistoricalfrequency,theLacduFlambeautribeshouldanticipateperiodsofextremecoldevery8-12years,equatingtoa10%probabilityinanygivenyear.Morerecently,probabilitieshaveincreasedgiventherehavebeen6eventsin25yearswhichequatesto1.1eventsper4-yearperiod.

4

15WisconsinStateClimatologyOffice.2018.http://bit.ly/2KrEjoY.16LakelandTimes.2014.“TheWeatherOutsideHasBeenFrightful”.January6.http://bit.ly/2JFnEwQ.17NOAANationalCentersforEnvironmentalInformationStormEventsDatabase.http://bit.ly/2jjgfYW.

Figure24:Averagewinter(December,January,February)temperaturesfortheStateofWisconsin.TemperaturesinVilasCountyandtheReservationareinthesingledigitswellbelowfreezing.

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Trend Climatechangeresultsingreatertemperaturevariability.However,climatepredictionsshowwintertemperaturesincreasing2.3°Fto5.3°FdegreesacrosstheResilienceInitiativeprojectboundaryby2050.Inthatsametimeframe,thenumberofdayswithbelowzerolowswilldecreaseby13to27daysperyear.

1

Health/PublicSafety

Extremecoldeventscancausefrostbite.Thosewithoutaccesstoreliablehomeheatingaremoresusceptible.Mostpeoplewillbeabletofindreliefincommunitywarmingcentersorwithfriendsandneighbors.Sociallyisolatedseniorcitizens,thosewithfunctionalneeds,andpoorhouseholdsaremostatrisk.Duringverycoldorprolongedevents,manyhouseholdswillbeimpactedbythepublichealthimpactsofextremecoldweather..

2

Home/PropertyDamage

Homeandpropertydamagearecommonduringperiodsofextremecoldasaresultoffrozenwaterpipesandsepticsystems.

2

Livelihood Businessesandotherplacesofemploymentmayneedtocloseasresultofextremecold.

1

Infrastructure Extremecoldcanleadtopowerfailurewhenwaterintakepointsatpowergenerationfacilitiesbecomefrozen.Excessivedemandonbothpowerandpropanecanresultinoutagesorshortages.

3

RecoveryCosts Costsareprimarilyassociatedwiththeneedtousealternateroadtreatment,andwiththerepairofdamagescausedbyfrozenpipes.

1

Environment Nolikelyimpact. 0

Cultural/Historic Nolikelyimpact. 0

GovernmentServices

Governmentserviceshaveclosedformultipledaysduringpastextendedperiodsofcoldweather.

2

Business/Agriculture

Somebusinesseswillbeforcedtocloseduetothedangerofemployeeexposure,thelossofutilityaccess,damagetowaterpipesorsewage,andotherreasons.

1

RiskAcceptability Assignedbyworkshopparticipants. 1

MitigationPotential

Highexpectedreturnoninvestments.

2

12. SchoolViolence/ArmedAttack/WorkplaceViolenceBackground:Attacksinvolvingedgedweapons,firearms,explosives,orotherweaponscaninflictahighnumberofcasualtiesinaveryshorttimeframe,overwhelmingimmediateresponsecapacityandleadingtoprofoundsecondaryeffectsthatdisruptthecommunityandadverselyaffectlives.Theriskfromarmedattacksexistsinschools,inplacesofbusiness,inplacesofworship,ingovernmentfacilities,andinpublicplaces,amongothers.

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Recenthigh-profilearmedattacksandincidentsofworkplaceviolenceincludethe2009FortHoodshooting(13killed,44injured),the2015SanBernardinoshooting(16killed,23injured),the2016OrlandoPulseNightclubshooting(50killed,53injured),andthe2017LasVegasshooting(59killed,851injured).Schoolshootingsarenotableintheirphysicalandpsychologicalimpactgiventheyoungageandvulnerabilityofvictims.However,despitethehigh-profilenatureoftheseevents,theyremainrelativelyrarewhendataisnationalized.HistoricalAnalysis:Whileshootings(includingthoseresultinginfatalities)haveoccurredinLacduFlambeau,therehavebeennomassshootingsorothersignificantinstancesofarmedattackinLacduFlambeau.Thefrequencyoftheseeventsisunlikelytobealteredwithchangingclimateconditions.VulnerabilityandRiskAssessment:ArmedattacksarepossibleinallcommunitiesintheUnitedStates,andallcommunitiesarelikewisevulnerabletothem.GiventheprevalenceofprivategunownershipintheUnitedStates,eliminationofthisriskisunrealistic.Prevalenceofpreparednesstrainingandcommunicationsinschoolsandplacesofemployment,including“Run,Hide,Fight”andstandardlockdowndrillshelptoreducethelikelyimpactsofsuchevents.Table18:VulnerabilityandriskassessmentforSchoolViolence/ArmedAttack/WorkplaceViolencesummarizingassessmentandscoresforeachmeasure.

Measure Assessment Value

Probability ThelikelihoodofanarmedattackinLacduFlambeauislow(oneeventevery20-100years)

2

Trend Therearenoanticipatedchangesinhazardprobabilityonaccountofclimatechange,populationdynamics,orotherfactors.

2

Health/PublicSafety

Armedattackshavethepotentialtoresultinahighnumberofinjuriesand/orfatalities.

3

Home/PropertyDamage

Nolikelyimpact. 0

Livelihood Nolikelyimpact. 0

Infrastructure Nolikelyimpact. 0

RecoveryCosts Recoverycostsfromanarmedattackarelikelytobelowandpertaintorepairofpublicfacilitiesandcostsassociatedwithinjuryandfatalityresponse.

1

Environment Nolikelyimpact. 0

Cultural/Historic Culturalandhistoricalriskfromarmedattacksisassociatedwiththelossofkeymembersofthecommunity.

1

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GovernmentServices

Governmentservices,namelyaccesstopublicschool,maybeimpactedforseveraldaysintheeventofanarmedattack.

2

Business/Agriculture

Nolikelyimpact. 0

RiskAcceptability Assignedbyworkshopparticipants 2

MitigationPotential

Highexpectedreturnoninvestment. 2

13. DamFailureBackground:ThereisonlyoneofficialwatercontrolstructureontheLacduFlambeaureservation.TherearetworegulatedDamsintheregionwiththepotentialtoreleasewaterdownriveranddirectlyaffectthereservation.Whiledamfailurecanberelatedtoextremeprecipitationeventsandtheforcesassociatedwithextremelyhigh-waterlevels,thisprimarilyatechnologicalorman-madehazardwherethefailureofthedamstructurehasthepotentialtoaffectcommunitiesandnaturalresourcesdownstreamofthedam.HistoricAnalysis:DamfailureshavenothappenedinVilasCountyortheReservationinthepast.Though,therearesomeagingdamsthatareconcernsfortribalmembers.VulnerabilityAssessment:ThetribeisparticularlyconcernedaboutthepotentialforadamfailuretoaffectdownstreamnaturalandculturalresourcessuchasManoomin(WildRice).Theunexpectedreleaseofwaterdownstream,particularlyinthefloatingleafstageofwildricedevelopmenthasthepotentialtouproottheseedlingsandleadtothefailureofthewildriceharvestintheaffectedstreamsandlakes.Table19:VulnerabilityandriskassessmentforDamFailuresummarizingassessmentandscoresforeachmeasure.

Measure Assessment Value

Probability Thelikelihoodofadamfailureaffectingthereservationisrare(lessthan1eventevery100years).

1

Trend Therearenoanticipatedchangesinhazardprobabilityonaccountofclimatechange,populationdynamics,orotherfactors.

2

Health/PublicSafety

Asignificantdamfailurehasthepotentialtoinjurepeoplewherethewatersurgeflows.

2

Home/PropertyDamage

Damfailurecouldresultinpropertydamageformorethan35homes. 3

Livelihood Nolong-termimpactstolivelihoodsareexpected 0

Infrastructure Thecostofrepairingthedamalonewillhaveasignificantimpactonthecommunity.

3

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RecoveryCosts Recoverycostsfromafailurearelikelytobehigh 3

Environment Thepotentialdamagetowildriceharvestareasaloneisenoughtomaketheseimpactspotentiallysevere.

3

Cultural/Historic Culturalandhistoricalriskfromadamfailurecouldbeseveregiventheconnectiontowildrice.

3

GovernmentServices

Governmentservicesareunlikelytobeaffectedformorethanaday. 1

Business/Agriculture

Businessandinparticularwildriceharvestcouldbeaffected. 3

RiskAcceptability Assignedbyworkshopparticipants 1

MitigationPotential

Standardreturnoninvestment. 1

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Part IV: Mitigation Strategies (Element C)

DevelopmentProcessThedevelopmentandprioritizationofmitigationactionsfollowedtheprocessdescribesinSectionX.X.Theseactionsweredrawnfromexistingtribalactivities,actionsthatarebeingtakenbyothercommunitiesfacingsimilarhazards,andthetribalstaffmember’srecommendations.TheTERCworkedtogetherbothinsub-committeesandinafullgroupduringaworkshoptorefineandprioritizetheactions.CriteriaforEvaluatingActionsForeachofthekeyhazards,theprojectteamandtheTEPCidentifiedkeygoalstoguidethedevelopmentofspecificactions.Thoseactionswerethenrefinedandprioritizedusingthefollowingcriteria.TheTEPCassignedrankingstoeachofthefollowingcategories:

• Feasibility:acombinedrankingofthepoliticallyandtechnicallyfeasibilityonanaction;• Cost:aninitialassessmentoftheoverallcostoftheactionbrokenintothreecategories:low

cost(<$10,000),mediumcost(<$10,000and<$100,000),andhighcosts(>$100,000);• Timing:theidealtimingforimplementation(immediate,short-term(1-3years),medium

term(4-5years),andlong-term(>5years);and• Synergieswithexistingprograms:Overlapwithexistingprogramsthatcouldbeusedfor

implementation.

ThesefactorswereconsideredandcombinedbytheTEPCtoidentifyanimplementationpriorityforeachaction(low,medium,high).Aspartofthisprocess,theTEPCalsoidentifiedthedepartmentororganizationwhowouldbetheleadontheimplementationandifanyspecificpartnerswouldberequiredfortheimplementationtobesuccessful.

PriorityActionsAsetof15keyactionswereidentifiedbytheTEPCasprioritiesforinitialimplementation.TheseincludedactionsfrommostofthekeytribaldepartmentsrepresentedbymembersoftheTEPCandrepresentinitialstartingpointsfortheimplementationofhazardmitigationactions.

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Table20:PhaseI-ImplementationactionsidentifiedbytheTEPCasstartingpointsforaction.

AllHazardMitigationActions1. AllHazardsGoal:Thegoalofthesehazardmitigationsactionsistoprepareandprotectallresidentsandvisitorsfromallhazards.Table21:Actionstomitigatetheriskofallnaturalandmanmadehazardsaffectingthecommunity.

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2. PlantandAnimalEpidemic/InvasiveSpecies/SpeciesLossThepotentiallossofplantandanimalspeciesthatareimportanttotheTribe’shistory,culture,andlifeways,isacriticalconcernandhazardfacingthecommunity.Thedevelopmentofthepre-disasterhazardmitigationplanisbeingcompletedinconjunctionwiththetribe’sclimateadaptationplanthatfocusesonthesenaturalresourcesandaninitialsetof20keyplantandanimalspecies.Detailedactionsforeachofthesespeciesareincorporatedbyreferenceintothisplan.Goal:Thegoalofthesehazardmitigationsactionsistoreducetheriskandextentoflossofcriticalnaturalresources(plantandanimalspecies)andthespreadofinvasivespeciesonindividuals,families,andthecommunityasawhole.Implementationoftheseactionswillhelpensurethehealthandwellnessofthecommunity,aswellasdecreasetheincidenceofotherman-madehazards.Table22:ActionstomitigatetheriskofPlant&AnimalEpidemics/InvasiveSpecies/SpeciesLoss

3. IllegalDrugCrisisGoal:Thegoalofthesehazardmitigationsactionsistoreducetheriskandextentofimpactsofillegaldrugusageonindividuals,families,andthecommunityasawhole.Reducingtheburdenonemergencyresponders,publichealth,andpublicsafetystaffwillcreatemorecapacityfortheseproviderstoassistinresponsestootherhazards.

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Table23:ActionstomitigatetheriskoftheIllegalDrugCrisis

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4. SevereThunderstorms/Lightning/HailGoal:Thegoalofthesehazardmitigationsactionsistominimizethethreattohumanlifeandpropertycausedbyassociatedthunderandlightning.Table24:ActionstomitigatetheriskofSevereThunderstorms/Lightning/Hail

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5. Epidemic/Pandemic/Vector-BorneDiseaseGoal:Thegoalofthesehazardmitigationsactionsistoprotectthehealthandsafetyofcommunityresidentsespeciallyinthefaceofcommunicableandvectorbornediseases.

Table25:ActionstomitigatetheriskofEpidemic/Pandemic/Vector-BorneDisease

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6. Flood(flashflood,lake,river,stormwater)Goal:Thegoalofthesehazardmitigationsactionsistoprotectthesafetyandpropertyofallresidentsfromextremewaterlevels.

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Table26:ActionstomitigatetheriskofFlooding

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7. SevereWinterStorms/IceStormsGoal:Thegoalofthesehazardmitigationsactionsistoprotectthehealthandsafetyoftribalresidentsfromtheadverseeffectsofheavysnow,blizzards,orotherseverewinterconditions.Table27:ActionstomitigatetheriskofSevereWinterStorms/IceStorms

8. Forest/WildlandFireGoal:Thegoalofthesehazardmitigationsactionsistoprotectthesafetyandpropertyofresidentsfromforestandwildfires.

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Table28:ActionstomitigatetheriskofWildfire/StructureFire

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9. HazardousMaterialsRelease/Contamination/Run-offGoal:Thegoalofthesehazardmitigationsactionsistoprotectpeopleandthenaturalenvironmentfromadverseeffectsofhazardousmaterialsincident.Thiscategoryincludesthereleaseofpotentiallyhazardouschemicalsduetoeitheranaturalevent,suchasflooding,oranintentionman-maderelease.Additionalactionsrelatedtoreducingtheriskofaterroristattachusinggunviolenceareincludedintheschoolandworkplaceviolencehazardactions.Table29:Actionstomitigatetheriskofnaturalorman-madeHazardousMaterialsrelease.

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10. Tornado/HighWindGoal:Thegoalofthesehazardmitigationsactionsistoprotecthealthandsafetyofcommunityresidentsandtouristsandminimizelossoflifeandproperty.Table30:ActionstomitigatetheriskofTornadoes/HighWinds

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11. ExtremeHeatGoal:Thegoalofthesehazardmitigationsactionsistoprotectthehealthandsafetyofcommunityresidents,particularlyelders,youth,andthosewithspecialmedicalneeds.Table31:ActionstomitigatetheriskofExtremeHeat.

12. ExtremeColdGoal:Thegoalofthesehazardmitigationsactionsistoprotectthehealthandsafetyofcommunityresidents,particularlyelders,youth,andthosewithspecialmedicalneeds.Table32:ActionstomitigatetheriskofExtremeCold

13. SchoolViolence/ArmedAttack/WorkplaceViolenceGoal:Thegoalofthesehazardmitigationsactionsistoenhanceprotectionandcontinueinformationsharingandcoordinationbetweenlocalagenciesanddepartmentsaswellasfederalandstate,county,municipalemergencyserviceandlawenforcementagencies.

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Table33:ActionstomitigatetheriskofSchoolViolence/ArmedAttacks/WorkplaceViolence

14. DamFailureGoal:ThegoalofthesehazardmitigationsactionsistoprotectthesafetyandpropertyofLacduFlambeaucommunityandallresidents.Table34:ActionstomitigatetheriskofDamFailure

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Part V: Plan Updates (Element D)

FutureUpdatesInorderforthismulti-hazardmitigationplantocontinuetoberelevantandusefulfortheTribe,itwillneedtobeupdatedtoreflectchangesinonthegroundrisksinthecommunity,enhancedunderstandingofchangingclimateconditions,andtheemergenceofnewissuesofconcern.Thisupdateprocesswillbepartofastandardizedsystemtoreviewactivitiesandprojectsandmonitorandtrackimplementation.Theeffortwillinclude:

• AnofficialreviewandupdateprocessforthecompletehazardmitigationplaneveryfiveyearsthatwillgenerateanewhazardmitigationplanningdocumentthatwillbeadoptedbyTribalCouncil;

• TheTribalEmergencyPlanningCommitteewillcontinuetomeetquarterly(ormonthly)asneededtoexchangeinformationandprovideupdatesontheimplementationoftheactionsidentifiedinthisplan;

• TheTribalEmergencyPlanningCommitteewillannuallyreviewanynewclimateprojectionsfortheregionoradditionalinfrastructuredevelopment;and

• TheTribe’sannualbudgetingprocesswillbeinformedbythehazardandresilienceneedsofthetribe.EachdepartmentresponsibleforactionsidentifiedinthisplanwillreporttoTribalCouncilannuallyontheprogressofimplementingthoseactions,upcomingprioritiesforaction,opportunitiesforexternalfunding,andfundingneeds.

StatusofActionsIdentifiedinthe2006PlanAlothaschangedsincethecompletionandapprovalofthe2006hazardmitigationplan.Theemergenceoftheillegaldrugcrisis,anenhancedunderstandingoftherealitiesandnuancesofclimatechange,andthecapacityofthetribetoconductitsownhazardmitigationplanningeffort.Thetribehasmadesignificantprogressondevelopingandsharingeducationalmaterialsonavarietyofhazards(exemplifiedby“tornadoweek”inearlyAprilorannualpresentationsandactivitiesatthecommunityforum).Thetribehasalsomadeprogressdevelopingamasswarningsystem(communitysiren),enhancingprotectionforcriticalfacilitiessuchaswatertowers,andimplementingnewsecuritymeasuresattheschools.

PlanIntegrationForeachaction,theTEPCidentifiednotonlyresponsibledepartments,butalsosynergieswithexistingdepartmentplanortribaloperationsandmanagementplans.Thisidentificationwillalsofacilitatetheintegrationoftheseactionsintotheon-goingoperationsandmanagementplanswhenresourcesandthetimingmakethisintegrationpossible.

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Part VI: Assurances and Plan Adoption (Element E)

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Appendix A: Analysis of Climate Data

ClimatologicalObservationsSummariesTheobservationaldatasetsprovidedbytheGreatLakesIntegratedSciencesandAssessments(GLISA)containinformationfromthelate1800stothepresent.Theseobservationaldataprovidehigh-qualityobservationsthatrepresenttheoverallclimateoftheGreatLakesregion.TheobservationaldatasetsusedfortheLacduFlambeauTribeofLakeSuperiorChippewaIndians(LacDuFlambeau)ClimateChangeResiliencePlanweretheNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA)NationalCentersforEnvironmentalInformation(NCEI)ClimateDivisionsandtheGlobalHistoricalClimatologyNetworkDaily(GHCN-D)Stationobservations.NCEIClimateDivisionsDatasetTheNCEIClimateDivisionsdatasetisalong-termtemporaldatasetforthecontiguousUnitedStates.TheClimateDivisionswereusedtoidentifyseasonalandannualtrendsingeographicallyrelatableareas.ForeachClimateDivision,monthlystationtemperatureandprecipitationvalueswerecomputedfromtheNCEIGHCN-Dailyobservationaldataset.Eachdivisionwassmallenoughtobesubjectedtosimilarclimateforceswhileincorporatingenoughobservationstoprovideastatisticallysoundsummaryoftrendsatthemulti-countyscale.TheperiodofrecordfortheClimateDivisionsdatasetspannedfrom1895topresent,andthisisimportantforunderstandingclimatetrendsatabroaderscalethanlocalobservations.

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SelectionofGeographicAreaofInterestAttheFebruary2018meetinghostedbyAdaptationInternational(AI)andtheLacduFlambeauClimateResiliencePlanning(TCRP)Committee,GLISAwasinvitedtopresentanoverviewofitsworkwithTribalNationsacrosstheGreatLakesregion.Inaddition,GLISAprovidedasummaryoftheclimateinformationthatwouldbeusedinsupportofthisproject(i.e.,historicalobservationsandfutureprojections).Attheconclusionofthemeeting,theTCRPdecideduponanareaofinterest(AOI)forwhichGLISAwouldcustomizesummarizedclimateinformation.ThisAOIiscomposedofseveralwatershedswithinaforty-mileradiusoftheLacduFlambeauReservation.ThisAOIissignificantduetohuntingandotheractivitiesimportanttotheTribe(seeFigure1).AspartoftheongoingeffortstosupportclimateadaptationactivitieswithintheGreatLakesregion,GLISAhasdevelopedsummariesoftheobservedhistoricalclimateforNCEIClimateDivisions.TheClimateDivisionforNorthCentralWisconsin(WICD2)wasusedinsupportoftheanalysisoftheLacduFlambeauTribalClimateResiliencePlanning(TCRP)

Figure25:LacduFlambeauTCRP'sAreaofInterest(AOI)whichspannedoverseveralwatershedswithinaforty-mileradiusofthereservedlands.Theredborderistheoutlineoftheforty-mileboundary,andtheblueareahighlightedtheAOIforthisanalsis.(Source:AdaptationInternational)

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Committee'sAOI.Comparedtotheotherclimatedivisionssurroundingthearea(i.e.,NorthwesternWisconsin(CD1),NortheasternWisconsin(CD3),andWesternUpperMichigan(CD1)),WICD2hasthemostcoverageintheAOIasshowninFigure2.ThiswasoptimalforunderstandinghowtheobservedclimatetrendshavebeenchangingwithintheareasurroundingtheLacduFlambeauReservation.GlobalHistoricalClimatologyNetworkDaily(GHCN-D)StationDatasetsGHCN-DistheNCEIintegrateddatabaseofclimatesummariesfromlandobservationstationsacrosstheglobe,whichhavebeensubjecttostandardizedqualityassurancecontrols.TheGHCN-Discomprisedofdailyclimaterecordsfromnumerouslandsurfacestations,andthesestationsareusedtodescribethetypicalclimateofaparticularplace.TheGLISAquality-controlledGHCN-Dstationscontainedover60yearsofthehigh-qualitylandsurfaceobservationsforthestationssurroundingtheGreatLakesregion.FortheGHCN-Dstationsincludedintheanalysis,thedatawasfurtherprocessedbyaseriesofscriptswhichwereusedtoreviewthequalityflags(i.e.,signifyinginaccuratedata)oftheobservations.Ifaflagwasfoundforasingleobservation,itwasnotusedwithinthecalculationoftheclimatetrendsforthegivenstation.Thisensuredanomaliesfoundfromanysingledailyobservationdidnotadverselyinfluencethecharacterizationofthestation’sclimatetrend.ThescriptsprovidedoutputsintheformofCommaSeparatedValues(.csv)fileswhichwerecompatiblewithmanyspreadsheetapplications.WebfileswereformattedanduploadedtotheserverhostingtheGLISAwebsite,allowingGLISAtoeasilyupdatetheinformationontheGreatLakesStationClimatologieswebpagecurrentlyavailableforagivenstation.ThisprocesswasusedfortheprocessingandupdatingoftheclimatedataontheGreatLakesClimateDivisionswebpagefromtheNCEIClimateDivisionsaswell.

Figure26:TheAOIoverlaidontheNCEIClimateDivisions.MajorityoftheAOIiswithinWICD2(NorthCentralWisconsin),andthisClimateDivisionwasusedintheanalysisforthehistoricalclimatologicaltrends.(Source:GLISA)

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TheGHCN-DstationslocatedinRestLake,WIandMinocqua,WIwereusedintheanalysisoftheLacduFlambeauTribalClimateResiliencePlanning(TCRP)Committee'sAOI.ThesestationsarelocatedatoppositeendsofthereservedlandsofLacduFlambeau.TheclimatologicalobservingstationatRestLakeislocatedtothenorthofLacduFlambeau,whiletheclimatologicalobservingstationatMinocquaislocatedtothesouthofLacduFlambeau(Figure3).TheuseofthesestationsprovidedamorelocalizedunderstandingofthelocalclimateobservedwithintheLacduFlambeauReservation.HistoricalObservationSourcesGlobalHistoricalClimatologyNetworkDaily(GHCN-D)StationObservations:https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ghcn-daily-descriptionhttp://glisa.umich.edu/climate-stationsNationalCentersforEnvironmentalInformationClimateDivisions:https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/maps/us-climate-divisions.php;http://glisa.umich.edu/resources/great-lakes-climate-divisions

ClimateProjectionsSummaries

FutureClimateDatafortheGreatLakesRegionClimatemodelsareusedtogeneratefutureclimatedatathatareoftenusedinclimateadaptationplanning.Globalclimatemodels(GCMs)simulateimportantphysicalprocessesandinteractionsinvolvingtheland,atmosphere,ocean,andiceovertheentireEarth.DozensofGCMsexistasdifferentmodelinggroupsworktoimprovemodelsimulations.ComputinglimitationsrestrictGCMstorelativelycoarsespatialresolution—meaningthemodelsdividetheEarth’ssurfaceintorelativelylargeareas(calledgridboxes)forperformingsimulationsandaveraging.Unfortunately,thislimitationmakesGCMsaninsufficientsourceofinformationforprocessesthatoccuratrelativelysmallspatialscales(suchasthosethatwouldoccurwithinanindividualgridbox),likeextremeprecipitationorwind,becausetheseeventsarenotphysicallysimulatedinthemodelsbutestimated.Inparticular,mostGCMsdonotincludearepresentationoftheGreatLakesortheyaretoosimplisticintheirrepresentationtoaccuratelysimulatelake-land-atmosphereinteractions(i.e.,lake-effectprecipitation),whichareimportantintheGreatLakesregion.This,along

Figure27:TheGHCN-DStationObservationsaroundtheLacduFlambeauReservation.ThestationinRestLake,WIislocatedtothenorth,andthestationinMinocqua,WIislocatedtothesouth.(Source:GLISA)

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withtheexclusionofothersmallerscaleclimateprocesses,makeGCMsbestsuitedforlarge-scale(global)climatestudies.Whenoneisinterestedinstudyingplausiblefutureclimatesatsmallerareasofinterest,liketheGreatLakesregion,thedetailsofthelandscapebecomeimportant(i.e.,topography).ThesefeaturesaretypicallybetterrepresentedinRegionalClimateModels(RCMs)thatincludesimulationsofsmallerscaleclimateprocessesatfinerspatialresolutions(Figure4).SuchenhancementsmakeRCMsmuchmorecomputationallyexpensivecomparedtoGCMs,sotheyareprimarilydesignedforandlimitedtospecificregions.AnRCMreliesontheinputfromaGCMatitsgeographicalboundarytoprovidetheinitialorstartingconditionsforthesimulation.TheRCMthenperformsamoredetailedsimulationoftheclimatepredictionoveraspecificregion.Thisapproachofgeneratingafine-scaleclimatesimulationinformedbylarger-scaleGCMsimulationsiscalled“dynamicdownscaling.”

Figure28:DepictionofhowglobalclimatemodelsdividethesurfaceoftheEarthintorelativelylargegridcellsandregionalclimatemodelsperformsimulationsoversmallerportionsoftheEarthatfinerspatialresolutions.(Source:GLISA)

GlobalClimateModelQualityAspreviouslystated,mostGCMsdonotincludetheGreatLakesphysically,oradequatelyrepresenttheirinfluenceonimportantatmosphericprocesses,sotheirqualityisratherpoorfortheregion.Hence,thereisaneedforRCMsimulations.However,thequalityofthefinalRCM

Table1:GCMbiasesinnear-surfaceairtemperature(°C)andprecipitation(mm/day)overlandwithintheGreatLakesBasinreportedasroot-mean-square-differencesfromobservations.Betterperformingmodelsarebolded.(Source:Notaroetal.2014)

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projectiondependsinpartonthequalityofinformationcomingfromtheGCMthatisusedasinputattheboundaryoftheRCM.Notaroetal.(2014)evaluated33GCMspriortoselectingasubsetofsixthatwereusedaspartoftheNelsonInstituteCenterforClimaticChangeResearch’sdynamically-downscaledsimulationsintheGreatLakes.ThemodelsranundertheRepresentativeConcentrationPathway8.5(RCP8.5),whichprojectedthehighestgreenhousegasemissionsmodelanalysis.Thesemodelsweredownscaledtoa25-kilometerspatialresolutionaccordingtotheRCP8.5scenariousingtheInternationalCentreforTheoreticalPhysics(ICTP)RegionalClimateModelVersionFour(RegCM4)coupledtoaone-dimensionallakemodeltorepresenttheGreatLakes.TheRegCM4wasoriginallydevelopedattheNationalCenterforAtmosphericResearchandiscurrentlymaintainedbytheInternationalCenterforTheoreticalPhysics(2010).Rootmean-square-differences,ameasureofaccuracy,wereusedtoshowhowwelleachGCMsimulatedhistoricalobservationsoftemperaturesandprecipitationovertheGreatLakesRegion(Table1).Root-mean-square-differencevaluesclosertozeroindicatesmallermodelerror(bias),whichwasdeterminedbycomparingthehistoricalsimulationinthemodeltoobservations.ValuesshowninboldtextinTable1indicatethemodelwasinthetop33%forbestperformancefortheselectvariable.

RegionalClimateModelSystem4(RegCM4)Whatelevatesthisdynamical-downscalingeffortabovemanyotherswastheinclusionofaninteractive1-Dlakemodelthatmorerealisticallysimulatedlaketemperaturesandlakeice—twovariablesnecessaryforcapturingcriticallakedynamicfeedbackstotheatmosphere.TheinclusionoftheGreatLakesandlakeprocessesinRegCM4hasresultedinsomeofthebestavailablemodelsimulationsfortheGreatLakesregionto-date.DetaileddescriptionsofRegCM4’sabilitytosimulatespecificclimatevariablescanbefoundinTable2.TheseevaluationspertainonlytotheperformanceofRegCM4,drivenbyobservationalreanalysisdata(i.e.,spatiallygriddedcompilationsofinstrumentobservations),anddonotincludetheinheritedGCMbiases.

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ThequalityoftheGCMimpactsthequalityoftheRCM’sfutureprojections,becauseGCMbiaseswerecarriedintotheRCMsimulation.Forexample,aGCMwithawarmbiasmaypreventtheRCMfromsimulatingiceontheGreatLakesduringwinter,whichhasimplicationsfortheRCM’ssimulationoflake-effectprecipitation,lakeevaporation,andotherlake-effects.ThefinalsetofsixGCMswereselectedbasedonthosethathadsufficientlyhighspatialresolution,goodoverallperformance,andrepresentedarangeoffuturewarmingandprecipitationchange.

Table35:SummaryofRegCM4historicalperformancebasedonevaluationinformationfoundinNotaroetal.2013band2014.

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Dynamically-downscaledClimateProjectionsfortheGreatLakesRegionThisprojectutilizedasetofdynamically-downscaledclimateprojectionsthatweredesignedfortheGreatLakesregion.Projectionsoffuturechange(mid-andlate-21stcentury)havebeenmadepubliclyavailableforavarietyofclimatevariables.Themid-centuryperiodspannedovertheyearsof2040-2059,andthelate-centuryperiodspannedovertheyearsof2080-2099.Thedatawasmadeavailablefordownload(netcdffiles)orviewableasmappedproductsatthelinkbelow.LinktoData:http://nelson.wisc.edu/ccr/resources/dynamical-downscaling/index.phpCharacterizationofDynamically-downscaledClimateModelSimulationResultsfortheLacduFlambeauAOIAsagreeduponbytheTCRP,AI,andGLISA,thecharacterizationofdynamically-downscaledclimatemodelsimulationresultswaspresentedthroughtheuseofbothmapsandspreadsheetapplications.ThismethodologyhasprovensuccessfulincharacterizingclimateobservationsandprojectedclimatetrendsaspartofpreviouscollaborationsbetweenGLISA,AI,andotherIndigenousTribesintheregion.ThisprocessinvolvedcollectinghistoricalobservationsforthelocationswithintheLacduFlambeauAOIfromtheNCEIandfutureclimateprojectionsfromthedynamically-downscaledoutputoftheRCMsimulationsdescribedintheprevioussection.Theoutputfromthesixdynamically-downscaledmodelswereprocessedusingaPythonprogramminglanguagescript.ThevariablesacquiredforthisanalysisconsistedoftemperatureandprecipitationoutputsgivenbytheNelsonInstitute,andseveralothervariables,suchasdaysover90°F,firstfallfreeze,lastspringfreeze,andmanyothers,weredetailedinTable5.ThesevariableswerechosenbasedontheprioritiesspecifiedbytheTCRPtobeusedintheClimateChangeResiliencePlan.

Table36:InstitutionsproducingGCMsimulationsusedtoprovideboundaryconditionstoRegCM4(Source:Notaroetal.2014)

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Table37:ListofthevariableschosenbyTCRP,AI,andGLISAfortheclimateanalysisoftheAOI.AlldatawasprovidedbytheNelsonInstitutedynamically-downscaledRegionalClimateModels.

Variable UnitsTemperature °FPrecipitation InchesDayswith2+”ofPrecipitation Days/DecadeFirstFallFreeze DaysLastSpringFreeze DaysDaysOver90°F DaysDaysOver100°F DaysSnowfallChange InchesSnowfallDays DaysSnowfallGreaterthan6” Days

ThePythonprogrammingscriptsusedtheoutputdatafromtheNelsonInstitutetoanalyzethechangesinthesevariablesbasedonthetimeperiodsof2040-2059(i.e.,mid-century)and2080-2099(i.e.,endofcenturyorlate-century)comparedtotheobservedclimatologicalconditions.Duetotheirresolution,thedynamically-downscaledmodelsprovideinformationatscalesasfineas25-kilometers,andtheoutputsprovidedbytheNelsonInstituteconsistedofNetCDFspatialdatafilesconsistingofpastchangeintrendsfortheobservationsduringtheperiodof1980-199918.GiventhatthemodelsimulationsprovideaprojectionofthespatialvariationinprojectedtrendsacrosstheGreatLakes,thePythoncodewasusedtoprocessthedatawithintheboundaryoftheAOI.ThisinvolvedapplyingcertainPythonfunctionstocarveor“clip”thedatawithintheboundary.The“clipping”ofthedatagatheredthedatacellswhichwerecontainedwithintheAOI,andtheresultswerespatiallyaveragedovertheareatoprovideasinglenumberrepresentingthechangefortheentireAOI.ThePythoncodecreatedbyGLISAprovidedtwoformsofdatathatcanbeusedforfurtheranalysisoftheclimatearoundLacduFlambeau.Themapsprovidedavisualizationoftheresultsfromtheprocessingforallsixmodels,individually,andfortheensemblemean.Theensemblemeanwasproducedbytakingtheaverageoftheresultsfromallsixmodels.ThemapsgeneratedaspartofthisprojectprovidedresultswhichspannedtheGreatLakesregion(boundedbytheareaof40°Nto50°Nand75°Wto95°W)aswellastheAOIcoverageofLacduFlambeau19.ThenumericaloutputsfromthemodelsthatwereprocessedusingthePythoncodewereplacedintoaCommaSeparateValues(.csv)spreadsheet.Thislatterspreadsheetprovidedthespatialaverageofallthevariablesforeachofthesixmodelsduringthemid-centuryandendofcenturytimeperiodsfortheLacduFlambeauAOI20.Therangeofavariableswasdeterminedthroughidentifyingtheminimumandmaximumnumberofallsixmodels,andtheserangeswereprovidedforthemid-centuryandendofcenturytimeperiods.

18Source:https://nelson.wisc.edu/ccr/resources/dynamical-downscaling/index.php19Link:https://drive.google.com/open?id=1iVkDaJlaL8dk97vIE-UV5VwdbjWMFOCd20Link:https://drive.google.com/open?id=1-VJnYgYPT4-ogu2fqZcotBWfv7-dSg02

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CalculationoftheHamonMoistureMetric(HMM)ThecalculationoftheHamonMoistureMetric(HMM)isamethodofintegratingtemperature,precipitation,andsunlighthourstoproducetheresultsneededfortheClimateChangeVulnerabilityIndex(CCVI)createdbyNatureServe21.TheCCVIhasaidedinidentifyingwhichspeciesaremostvulnerabletothedrasticeffectsofclimatechangeimpacts.TheHMMisbasedontheHamonpotentialevapotranspirationequationwhichquantifiestheratiobetweenwateravailabilityandtheevaporativedemand(Hamon,1961andLuet.al.,2005).Thedeterminationoftheratiorequiredtheuseoftemperature,precipitation,andnumberofdaylighthoursforagivenlocationasspecifiedbytheformulasgiveninCopelandetal.,2010.ThedatafromtheNelsonInstitutewasusedtocalculatethisratiobasedontheformulawhichistheratioofactualevapotranspiration(AET)andpotentialevapotranspiration(PET).

𝐻𝑎𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑀𝑜𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑒𝑀𝑒𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐(𝐻𝑀𝑀) = 𝑃𝐸𝑇/𝐴𝐸𝑇

ThecalculationofHMMrequiredgatheringhistoricalgriddedclimatologicalobservationsandmodelprojections,whichwereusedwithecologicaldataprovidedbyAI,fortheCCVIanalysis.TheDynamically-downscaleddatafromtheNelsonInstitutehasgriddedhistoricaldataavailable,andthisgriddeddatawaspairedwiththeprojectionstoensureconsistencyinthecomparingthemodels’historicalmodeloutputsandmodels’projections.ThefollowingformulawasusedtocomputethePETusedintheCCVIanalysis:

𝑃𝐸𝑇𝐻𝑎𝑚𝑜𝑛 = 13.97𝑑𝐷2𝑊𝑡,wheredisthenumberofdayspermonth;Disthehoursofsunlightforthegivenmonth;andWtisthesaturatedwatervapordensity,whichisdependentontheaveragetemperatureofthemonthT,definedbythefollowingformula:

𝑊𝑡 = (4.95𝑒0.062𝑇)/100

ThePETwasdependentontheaveragemonthlytemperature,andtemperaturesbelow32°FmakethePETzero.ThiswouldmakewintermonthsmorelikelytohavezeroPETduetotheaveragebelow-freezingtemperatures.TheAETdependedonseveralconditionsofwhetherthemonthlyaveragetotalprecipitationisgreaterorlesserthanthePET.TheAETwouldequaltheprecipitationamountiftheamountwasgreaterthanthePET;however,theAETandPETwouldbethesameoncetheprecipitationamountwaslessthanthePETforthemonth.AnadditionalcodewascreatedbyGLISAtocalculatetheensemblemeanofthehistoricalandfuturegriddedmodeloutputsforthiscalculation.Thehistoricaldatawasaveragedoverthetimeperiodof1980-1999forconsistencywiththe20-yearaveragingofthemid-centuryandendofcenturytimeperiods.Oncetheensemblemeanwascalculatedforthe

21link:http://www.natureserve.org/conservation-tools/climate-change-vulnerability-index

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differentparametersoftheHMM(i.e.,Wt,PET,andAET),theresultingcalculationwasoutputtedintogriddedNetCDFfiles.ThegriddedoutputsprovidedtheHMMfortheentireGreatLakesregion,andAIhascontinuedtheprocessingoftheCCVIwiththeresultinggriddeddataforfurtheranalysis.

CCVIAnalysisDifferencesTheCCVIanalysisinvolvedintegratinggriddedmodeldatafromclimatechangemodelswithecologicaldatatofindwhichspeciesaremostvulnerabletoclimatechangeimpacts.DuetotheirefficiencyofdepictingthedynamicsoftheGreatLakeswiththeatmosphere,GLISAuseddatafromtheNelsonInstituteandprovidedanensemblemeancontaininganaverageofallsixmodels.Thisensemblemeanprovidedsomeconsensusofdirectionastohowthemodelswerebehavingbasedonmodelrunsformid-centuryandendofcentury.Incontrast,theGreatLakesIndianFishandWildlifeCommission(GLIFWC)usedthesamedataprovidedbytheNelsonInstitutetocreatetheirownmethodofcalculatingtheCCVI.GLIFWC’smethodinvolvedusingtworepresentativemodelsgivingthemostandleastamountofchangeinthefuturebasedonallsixmodels.ThismethodwasdistinctlydifferentfromGLISA’ssincetwomodelswerechosentorepresentthebehaviorofthedata;however,GLISA’smethoddidtakeintoconsiderationthedifferentbehaviorsofthemodelsbasedontheensemblemean.GLISA’smethodcanbethoughtofasamiddlegroundforhowtheresultsoftheCCVIshouldbeinterpretedcomparedtoGLIFWC’smethodology.Otherfactorsandfurtherinvestigationswillbeneededtounderstandtheadvantagesanddisadvantagesofeachmethod.

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Appendix B: Public Engagement Itemstobeinserted–

• InitialSurvey–Onlineandpaper• InitialSurveyResponses• ReviewSurvey• ReviewSurveyResponses