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Laboratory Profile. General information Laboratory of Applied Thermodynamics (LAT). Structure: Part of the Mechanical Engineering Dept., Energy Sector Aristotle University Thessaloniki - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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LABORATORY OF APPLIED THERMODYNAMICS
ARISTOTLE UNIVERSITY THESSALONIKISCHOOL OF ENGINEERING
DEPT. OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING
Laboratory ProfileLaboratory Profile
General information Laboratory of Applied Thermodynamics (LAT)
Structure: Part of the Mechanical Engineering Dept., Energy SectorAristotle University Thessaloniki
Housing: A total area of 600 m2 in the University campus(testing facilities 400 m2, offices 200 m2)
Personnel: ~20 engineers, 3 technicians and undergraduate students
Faculty Staff: Prof. Zissis Samaras (Director), Assoc. Prof. Grigoris Koltsakis, Emeritus Prof. Konstantinos Pattas
Turnover: ~600 k€ annually
Membership: Member of EARPA (European Automotive Research Partners Association)
Website: http://lat.eng.auth.gr
Scientific & research areas
Design and development of exhaust aftertreatment devices
Study of particle emissions from engines and aerosol technology
Engine & vehicle exhaust emissions measurement & characterization
Emission inventories and forecasts
Renewable energy sources, incl. automotive biofuels
LABORATORY OF APPLIED THERMODYNAMICS
ARISTOTLE UNIVERSITY THESSALONIKISCHOOL OF ENGINEERING
DEPT. OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING
EC4MACS - LATEC4MACS - LAT
Questions to be answered
Available tools for EC4MACS
Use for policy analysis
Extensions foreseen in the coming years, additional insights
Which linkages to other aspects (outside the own modelling domain) could be of relevance?
Critical interfaces with other models
Questions
Our role in EC4MACS
Task 6: Transport scenarios Period: Oct. 2006 – Sep. 2011
Actions 6.1: Update baseline transport projections 6.2: Alternative scenarios proposed by the
Commission/stakeholders 6.3: Evaluate options, including uncertainty characterisation
Deliverables 6.1 Interim baseline transport projection (2007) 6.2 Interim assessment of alternative transport scenarios
(2008) 6.3 Final baseline transport projection (2009) 6.4 Final policy scenarios (2010-2011)
TREMOVE Model
TREMOVE is a policy assessment model, designed to study the effects of different transport and environment policies on the emissions of the transport sector and was developed for Auto-Oil II Programme
Objective: Make available to the European Commission services a transport model that is applied for environmental and economic analysis, up
to 2020 of different policies and measures to reduce the atmospheric
emissions (incl. greenhouse gases) from all modes of transport (road, rail, aviation, maritime and
inland waterways) in the enlarged European Union
LAT is only a user and (so far), not a developer of TREMOVE
TREMOVE Developments
TREMOVE 2 - Lot 3 (KUL)
TREMOVE III Lot 1 (TML)
TREMOVE III - Lot 2 (LAT)
TREMOVE Review (MNP/IEEP/IIASA/BIO)
Car choice / taxation (IEEP)
EU Vehicles Database
Further framework for model maintenanceand improvement
TREMOVE Development - TREMOVE II – Lot 3 (KUL)
Task 3.1 - Calibration of the TREMOVE model Integrate of the most recent emission factors available at EU
level (COPERT IV – ARTEMIS) Validation of the data set of the model against the national
statistics and forecasts used for NEC • Co-operation with IIASA• Meetings with Member States, to complement and detail
the data and assumptions• Adaptation of the model to the extent that it contributes to
the validity of the model and does not hamper its internal consistency.
Revision of the baseline scenario fully consistent with the NEC Baseline + variant based on alternative national projections.
Task 3.2 - Simulation of 60 policy packages Euro 5, Maritime, CO2+Cars (on-going), etc.
End of contract: 9/11/2006
TREMOVE III – Lot 1 (TML)
Develop source code & software structure (model speed, user interface)
Follow-up of “TRENDS-2” project (COPERT IV non-road modes, IPTS) Allow easily introducing transport baseline data from alternative
sources Improve the dataset (best available level of detail and data quality) Extension of the scope of TREMOVE to EU-27, CR, TU Improve the structure of the model, so that behavioural responses are
better reproduced in all modes. Take into account the conclusions of independent model review Organise ad-hoc seminars with the most relevant experts Draft list of improvements:
Enable new modal substitutions / Endogeneous load factor and occupancy rates for all modes
Review and validation of the set of price elasticities and elasticities of substitution (EOS)
congestion/scarcity in non-road mode / Calibration of speed-flow relationships
Road vehicle 2nd hand Market Revenue recycling options / MCPF
Revised TREMOVE baseline scenario at the end of the contract (3/2007)
TREMOVE III – Lot 2 (LAT)
60 policy scenarios with TREMOVE Until June 2006: preparation use TREMOVE, definition
scenarios June/December 2006: TREMOVE runs for NEC
• Future Emission standards• Technical measures on existing vehicles (Retrofit HDV)• Non-technical measures (Scrapping / Bans)• Full implementation Eurovignette provisions
Other• Infrastructure charging (DG TREN)• Fuel taxes
TREMOVE III – Review (MNP)
Independent and scientific review of TREMOVE MNP, IEEP, IIASA, BIO Assessment
• Check to what extent the structure of each module of TREMOVE provides a scientifically credible representation of the reality.
• Define the limitations and the implied system boundaries and explain to what extent may these restrict the validity of the conclusions and policy advice
Recommendations for improvements:• Short term: to be implemented by TML before March 2007• Medium/long term: prepare further framework for model
maintenance and improvement, after March 2007
EU Vehicle Database
Low quality current data on vehicle stock Information about general aggregate categories only little consistent information on age and technology distribution very little information is available as regards disaggregated activity
data. Objectives:
Build a consistent and accurate database providing detailed information on the stock of vehicles at country or regional level, minimum each year 2000-2005
Cover the requirements of TREMOVE, TERM and COPERT. Define a methodology for the further regular update of the database.
Scope: Al least TREMOVE 3 countries (EU27+4) All modes, as well as non-road mobile machinery Focus on road transport vehicle
Consistency checks (Transport volumes, traffic counts, fuel consumption) Co-ordination (Eurostat, EEA, EMEP/CORINAIR, UNECE WP 6) Duation: January – December 2007 Consortium: LAT, EnviCon, ICCS, KTI, Oekopol, Renault
Transport and Environment Database System (TRENDS)
Project funded by the European Commission Directorate General for Transport and Energy
Partners Participating in the Project: Laboratory of Applied Thermodynamics/LAT
Denmark Technical University/DTU
ΨΑ-Consulting/Austria
INFRAS/Switzerland
TRENDS Main Modules
Road Transport - LAT/AUTh Railway - DTU Maritime and Inland Shipping - DTU Aviation - ΨΑ-Consulting Transport Activity Balance (TAB) - INFRAS Calculation of Waste and Noise produced by Road
Transport - INFRAS
Methodological Steps for Road Transport
Creation of Appropriate Data Bases System Dynamics Module
Extrapolate Main Vehicle Categories Simulate Vehicle Turnover
Produce Input Tables for COPERT Spatial Disaggregation
Urban, Rural, Highway Temporal Disaggregation
Yearly, Quarterly
Input Data used for TRENDS - Road Transport module
Statistical data for 15 EU countries from 1970 to 1997 Vehicle populations (PCs, commercial vehicles, buses
and two-wheelers) Vehicle density Saturation values Vehicle split - According to fuel and engine type Lifetime functions
Spatial and Temporal Disaggregation of Vehicle Emissions
Spatial Disaggregation Emission Results Produced by TRENDS Allocated to
EU15 Cities Highways Rural Areas
Statistical Data Provided by GISCO Production of GIS Maps
Temporal Disaggregation Seasonal Distribution of Emission results
Spatial Disaggregation of Vehicle Emissions: CO urban rural and highway emissions for Germany (1995)
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100 0 100 200 Miles
NUTS CO tn/year/km²0.1 - 0.330.33 - 0.460.46 - 0.750.75 - 1.51.5 - 163.62
Settlements CO tn/year# 631 - 7635# 7636 - 20964# 20965 - 48119# 48120 - 78821# 78822 - 198334#
Road Emissions CO tn/year/km0 - 5353 - 9797 - 150150 - 209209 - 306 N
EW
S
CO-GERMANY
COPERT
Copert is a methodology and a software tool to calculate emissions from road transport
Its development has been supported by the European Environment Agency
Input for methodology updates have been several European projects in the area of emissions. The most well known have been: The Corinair activity The MEET/Cost 319 projects The Artemis/Particulates cluster JRC/CONCAWE activities on fuel evaporation The UNECE Task Force on Emission Inventories
LAT has been the main developer over the recent years but Copert is considered a collective development of many individuals/organizations
COPERT Usage
Auto - Oil II: Copert based forecast scenarios run on behalf of ACEA to estimate emission evolution up to 2015
EMEP/CORINAIR: COPERT III methodology is the road transport and off-road machinery emission chapter in the UNECE’s Emission Inventory Guidebook
EEA Activities: National and Central Estimates for Air Emissions from Road Transport TERM : Transport and Environment Reporting Mechanism (Commission - Eurostat, DG
TrEn - EEA) TRENDS: Development of a Database system for the Calculation of Indicators of
Environmental Pressure Caused by Transport (DG TrEn study) supported by EEA
COPERTCOPERT
Auto Oil Auto Oil IIII
TREMOVTREMOVEE
ACEA
EMEP EMEP GuidebooGuideboo
kk
TERMTERM
TRENDSTRENDS
National National InventorieInventorie
ssIndividual Individual
UseUse
STEERSSTEERS(CONCAWE)(CONCAWE)
Copert III field of applications National level (Europe)
Official National Inventories: Belgium
• Flemish (C. De Bosscher, VMM, Erembodegem)• Wallon (I. Higuet, DGRNE, Namur)• All (M. Squilbin, BIM, Brussels)
Bosnia (Martin Tais, Federal Meteorological Institute) Croatia (Zeljko Juric, Ekonerg, Zagreb) Cyprus (Chrysanthos Savvides, Min. of Labour, Nicosia) Denmark (Morten Winther, RISOE, Roskilde) Estonia (Natalje Kohv, Env. Inf. Centre, Talin) France (Jean Pierre Chang, Paris) Greece (Demetra Koutendakis, Nat. Obs/tory, Athens) Ireland (Paul Duffy, EPA, Dublin) Italy (Riccardo de Lauretis, ANPA, Rome) Luxembourg (Thewes Frank, Lux. EPA, Luxembourg) Moldova (Victor Ambroci, Nat. Cent. Env Monit.) Slovenia (Alenka Fritzel) Spain (Antonio Chao, AED SA, Madrid)
Comparison of Structure TREMOVE-TRENDS
Model Demand Module
Stock Module Emission Module
TREMOVE(v2.44b)
PRIMES+ Elasticities on the basis of basecase
Foremove+ Copert 4
TRENDS(2004 Version)
Gompertz function (no interface with policy)
Foremove+ Copert 4
Comparison of the different models available
COPERT TRENDS TREMOVECurrent Version 4, v.3.0.0 Feb 2004 II, v2.44b
Geographical range Applicable to any country EU15 EU15+6
Time span 1970-2020 1970-2020 1995-2020
Vehicle categories Annex A Annex A Annex B
Transport modes Road Road, air, rail, maritime Road, air, rail, maritime
Vehicle activity No activity data Population, mileage, age, speed
Population, mileage, age, speed
Vehicle emissions Road17 pollutants
Road 11 pollutants (Based on COPERT)
Off-road8 pollutants
Road 11 pollutants (Based on COPERT)
Off-road7-10 pollutants depending
on modeCurrent use in production of TERM indicators
TERM 27 and 28 TERM 03, 27, 28, 32 and 34 TERM 33
OutlookCOPERT 4 continuously improving based on EEA
funding. New version expected Sept. 2007
Call on off-road module by JRC IPTS. Future
TRENDS development still open.
V2.5 being finalized to include EU25 coverage up
to 2030.
Further Development of TREMOVE/TRENDS/COPERT
TREMOVE: v2.5 finalized on 9/3, covering EU27+4 up to 2030, including Copert 4 emission functions
TRENDS: Call (6/2006) from JRC/IPTS focusing mainly on emission factors for non-road modes (won by TRT Milan)
COPERT: Continuous funding from EEA/ETC ACC enough to support development on the methodological and software fronts
Currently TREMOVE is supported by DG ENV, Copert by EEA and TRENDS by EUROSTAT and JRC
There is discussion to transfer all responsibility for further development to JRC (IPTS/IES)
Future development plans to be decided in the months to come
Linkages and interfaces
These have been already historically developed and will be further enhanced in this project Rains/Gains Primes CAFÉ/Auto Oil Accent/Geia …