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LABOR MARKET DIGEST
SPRING 2019
QOQ YOY4 Quarters
RollingTotal Nonfarm Employment q p pCivilian Labor Force p p pUnemployment Rate p q qAverage Weekly Hours p q pReal Hourly Earnings q q qArrow Up = IncreaseArrow Down = Decrease
Q3 2018Q4 2018
Q4 2017Q4 2018
Q1 – Q4 2017Q1 – Q4 2018
TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT
0.16%
0.86%
1.80%
MSA VA US
PERC
ENT
CHAN
GE
From a quarterly perspective, the year-over-year (Q42017 vs Q4 2018), seasonally adjusted workforce forthe metropolitan area can be summarized as: MoreWorkers working Less Hours for Less Pay.
Percent & Total Change, Q4 2017 – Q4 2018
QUARTERLY WORKFORCE PERSPECTIVE
CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE
1.02%
0.37%
1.47%
MSA VA US
PERC
ENT
CHAN
GE
The Virginia Beach – Norfolk – Newport NewsMetropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) saw little change,but still positive growth in seasonally adjusted TotalNonfarm Employment in Q4 2018 over Q4 2017. TheMSA added a net 1,233 jobs (0.16%), trailing both thestate and the nation. Nonfarm Employment grew to itshighest point, 792,500 in Q2 2018, but declinedquarter-over-quarter through year’s end. Moving fromQ3 to Q4 2018 the MSA shed -1,933 jobs (-0.24%).The trend is worth watching in that from a quarterlyperspective, MSA Nonfarm Employment hovers just1.1% above pre-recession peak employment. Sincereaching the mark Q2 2017, the region hasmaintained above pre-recession peak employment,add a net total of 6,500 jobs through Q4 2018. Of noteare recent monthly figures which show an uptick inNonfarm Employment of 3,900 (0.5%) movingthrough the first two months of 2019.
Non-military members of the labor force, 16 years orolder, grew faster in the MSA than the state year-over-year; a growth of 1.02% compared to 0.37%,respectively. According to the household survey (BLSCurrent Population Survey), this is an addition of8,655 jobs, Q4 2017 to Q4 2018. The increasesuggests a growth in number of employed persons, incontrast to job counts, as indicated by Total NonfarmEmployment from the establishment survey (BLSCurrent Employment Statistics). Q3 to Q4 2018 theCivilian Labor Force grew by 0.18% (1,563), at thesame rate as the state. 2018, as a whole, the MSACivilian Labor Force grew by 0.42% over 2017.
1,233
34,000
2.65M
Percent & Total Change, Q4 2017 – Q4 2018
8,655
15,823
2.35M
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AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS
REAL HOURLY EARNINGS
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
Q4 2017 Q3 2018 Q4 2018
MSA 4.0 3.1 3.2
VA 3.4 2.8 2.8
US 4.1 3.8 3.8
SPRING 2019
Q3 2009
$22.65
Q1 2013
$18.80
Q4 2018
$20.61
$18
$19
$20
$21
$22
$23
$24
$25
Q1 2
007
Q1 2
008
Q1 2
009
Q1 2
010
Q1 2
011
Q1 2
012
Q1 2
013
Q1 2
014
Q1 2
015
Q1 2
016
Q1 2
017
Q1 2
018
VIRGINIA BEACH-NORFOLK-NEWPORT NEWS MSASource: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Adjusted for
Inflation using CPI for All Urban Consumers: All Items
The unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentagepoints to 3.2%, Q3 to Q4 2018, and the number ofunemployed persons increased by 490 to 27,468. Theseasonally adjusted metropolitan unemployment ratemaintained below 4%, quarter-over-quarter for 2018,a quarterly trend that had not been seen since 2007.The trend is consistent with those of both the stateand the nation.
Although unemployment is at an 18 year low, it isimportant to note the opposing trends in hours workedand real hourly earnings, as discussed below, for afull understanding of what record low unemploymentrepresents for the economy.
Average Weekly Hours Worked increased quarter-over-quarter, Q3 2018 to Q4 2018, by 0.2 hours (12minutes). Comparing Q4 2018 to the year prior, hoursare, however, down by 0.1 (6 minutes). This is -4.7%below the Q3 2009 peak, but is still 2.1% above theQ4 2013 trough. Changes in weekly hours can beattributed to fluctuations in the workforce make-up ofemployment type: part-time, full-time, temporaryemployment situations, etc. Relatively low averageweekly hours worked in light of a lower rate ofincrease in Total Nonfarm Employment (employerreported jobs) contrasted with a higher rate ofincrease in the Civilian Labor Force (individuals whomay hold more than one job), suggests the presenceof a larger cohort of part-time or temporary workers.
Q4 2018 inflation adjusted average hourly earningsdeclined to $20.61. This is a decreased in RealHourly Earnings for the MSA by -1.7% (-$0.36/hour)in Q4 2018 from Q3 2018. Both the state and thenation posted increases over the same period of$0.08/hour and $0.10/hour, respectively.
Year-over-year, Real Hourly Earnings for the MSAdeclined by -$0.83/hour (-3.9%) from Q4 2017 to Q42018 (shown in the graph to the right). Annualaverages from 2017 to 2018 also reflect a decline inearnings (-3.21%) which is similarly divergent fromstate and national trends, both from a historical ten-year and a near-term two-year perspective, runningquarter over quarter, 2017 through 2018.
VA Trend Line
US Trend Line
MSA
Q3 2009
36.0
Q4 2013
33.6
Q4 2017
34.4
Q4 2018
34.3
33.0
33.5
34.0
34.5
35.0
35.5
36.0
36.5
Q1 2
007
Q1 2
008
Q1 2
009
Q1 2
010
Q1 2
011
Q1 2
012
Q1 2
013
Q1 2
014
Q1 2
015
Q1 2
016
Q1 2
017
Q1 2
018
Average Weekly Hours
HIGHLIGHTS!"#$
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INDUSTRY CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT
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Year-Over-Year Employment Change (Thousands)
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Annual Employment Change (Thousands)Annual Average 2017 – 2018
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+4.5% +0.5%
Hampton Roads Workforce Council / Greater Peninsula Workforce Board Labor Market Digest – Spring 2019. Unless otherwise noted, data covers the Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News Metropolitan Statistical Area (“MSA”) for the three months ending December 2018 (Fourth Quarter). The Hampton Roads Workforce Council oversees federally funded workforce development programs, which assist businesses in accessing qualified workers and jobseekers in finding suitable job openings and bolstering their earning power through training. The Hampton Roads Workforce Council is responsible for developing workforce policy and administering workforce development initiatives in Virginia's Workforce Investment Area 16, which include the eight localities that comprise the Virginia Career Works - Hampton Roads Region. The Board conducts its operations through the "Hampton Roads Workforce Council" organization. The Greater Peninsula Workforce Board is a group of community leaders appointed by local elected officials and tasked with planning and oversight responsibilities for workforce development programs and services within the seven localities that comprise the Virginia Career Works – Greater Peninsula Region. The Board conducts its operations through the "Greater Peninsula Workforce Council" organization.
Funded by the U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration, Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act. Equal Opportunity Employer/Program (Auxiliary aids and services are available upon request to individuals with disabilities.)
STAY CONNNECTED! @hamptonroadsworkforcecouncil | 757.314.2370 | www.vcwhamptonroads.org | 757.766.4900 | www.vcwpeninsula.com@greaterpeninsulaworkforceboard