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La Rivoluzione Energetica AmericanaIncontro con Frank Verrastro
A European regulator’s perspective
Prof. Valeria Termini
Commissioner, Italian Authority for Electricity and GasCEER Vice President
Member of the Board of Regulators, ACER
Milano, 21st March 2013
Prof. Valeria Termini Milan, 21st March 2013
Shale gas potential
•EIA estimates of 48 basins in 32 countries
•2
Prof. Valeria Termini Milan, 21st March 20133
Natural gas net export flowsSource: IEA, Natural gas information 2012
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
1971 1973 1990 2000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Bill
ion
so
fcu
bic
met
ers
America (non USA)
USAAsia
Europa
Russia/Central Asia
AfricaMiddle East
Natural gas net export flowsSource: IEA, Natural gas information 2012
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
1971 1973 1990 2000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Bill
ion
so
fcu
bic
met
ers
America (non USA)
USAAsia
Europa
Russia/Central Asia
AfricaMiddle East
The increase in gas flows
Prof. Valeria Termini Milan, 21st March 20134
Source: BP
Gas trade flows
Prof. Valeria Termini Milan, 21st March 20135
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2000 2010 2000 2010 2000 2010 2000 2010 2000 2010 2000 2010
Italy France Germany Spain UK European Union
Coal, lignite Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewables (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal) Other
The generation mix: gas and renewables are growing for all (and will grow more)
Fonte: Enerdata
Prof. Valeria Termini Milan, 21st March 2013 6
LNG global import and export
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Import Export Import Export Import Export Import Export Import Export
America As ia Europa Afri ca Aus tra l ia
Fonte: Globa l LNG.
M(m3)
1997 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Prof. Valeria Termini Milan, 21st March 2013 7
Where does LNG go ?
Importazioni di LNG per paese di destinazionefonte: IEA
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
Arg
entin
a
Bel
gium
Bra
zil
Can
ada
Chi
le
Chi
na
Tai
pei
Dom
inic
an r
ep
Fra
nce
Gre
ece
Indi
a
Italy
Japa
n
Kor
ea
Kuw
ait
Mex
ico
Nor
way
Pol
and
Por
tuga
l
Pue
rtor
ico
Spa
in
Tur
key
UK
US
A
Mili
on
i di m
etri
cu
bi
2006
2010
=>
Prof. Valeria Termini Milan, 21st March 2013 8
Where does LNG come from?
Esportazioni di LNG per Paese di origineFonte IEA (2011)
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
Aus
tral
ia
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
Alg
eria
Bru
nei
Egy
pt
Eq.
Gui
nea
Indo
nesi
a
Liby
a
Mal
aysi
a
Nig
eria
Nor
way
Om
an
Per
u
Qat
ar
Rus
sia
Trin
idad
U.A
.E.
Yem
en
Non
Spe
cifie
d
Mili
on
i di m
etri
cu
bi
2006
2010
Prof. Valeria Termini Milan, 21st March 2013 9
World’s major LNG exporting and importing countries
Source: BG group
Prof. Valeria Termini Milan, 21st March 2013 10
The emergence of gas hubs in Europe
Prof. Valeria Termini Milan, 21st March 2013 11
Where does gas come from?
TAP
ITGI
MEDGAZ
GALSI
TRANSMED
Source: ATKearney
Prof. Valeria Termini Milan, 21st March 201312
Geopolitica dell’energia: prezzi e consumi del petrolio 1964-2010
•Consumo mondiale di petrolio
•Milioni di barili al giorno
•P
rezzo
del
petr
olio
La Rivoluzione Energetica AmericanaIncontro con Frank Verrastro
A European regulator’s perspective
Prof. Valeria Termini
Commissioner, Italian Authority for Electricity and GasCEER Vice President
Member of the Board of Regulators, ACER
Milano, 21st March 2013
Prof. Valeria Termini Milan, 21st March 2013
Shale gas potential
•EIA estimates of 48 basins in 32 countries
•2
Prof. Valeria Termini Milan, 21st March 20133
Natural gas net export flowsSource: IEA, Natural gas information 2012
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
1971 1973 1990 2000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Bill
ion
so
fcu
bic
met
ers
America (non USA)
USAAsia
Europa
Russia/Central Asia
AfricaMiddle East
Natural gas net export flowsSource: IEA, Natural gas information 2012
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
1971 1973 1990 2000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Bill
ion
so
fcu
bic
met
ers
America (non USA)
USAAsia
Europa
Russia/Central Asia
AfricaMiddle East
The increase in gas flows
Prof. Valeria Termini Milan, 21st March 20134
Source: BP
Gas trade flows
Prof. Valeria Termini Milan, 21st March 20135
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2000 2010 2000 2010 2000 2010 2000 2010 2000 2010 2000 2010
Italy France Germany Spain UK European Union
Coal, lignite Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewables (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal) Other
The generation mix: gas and renewables are growing for all (and will grow more)
Fonte: Enerdata
Prof. Valeria Termini Milan, 21st March 2013 6
LNG global import and export
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Import Export Import Export Import Export Import Export Import Export
America As ia Europa Afri ca Aus tra l ia
Fonte: Globa l LNG.
M(m3)
1997 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Prof. Valeria Termini Milan, 21st March 2013 7
Where does LNG go ?
Importazioni di LNG per paese di destinazionefonte: IEA
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
Arg
entin
a
Bel
gium
Bra
zil
Can
ada
Chi
le
Chi
na
Tai
pei
Dom
inic
an r
ep
Fra
nce
Gre
ece
Indi
a
Italy
Japa
n
Kor
ea
Kuw
ait
Mex
ico
Nor
way
Pol
and
Por
tuga
l
Pue
rtor
ico
Spa
in
Tur
key
UK
US
A
Mili
on
i di m
etri
cu
bi
2006
2010
=>
Prof. Valeria Termini Milan, 21st March 2013 8
Where does LNG come from?
Esportazioni di LNG per Paese di origineFonte IEA (2011)
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
Aus
tral
ia
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
Alg
eria
Bru
nei
Egy
pt
Eq.
Gui
nea
Indo
nesi
a
Liby
a
Mal
aysi
a
Nig
eria
Nor
way
Om
an
Per
u
Qat
ar
Rus
sia
Trin
idad
U.A
.E.
Yem
en
Non
Spe
cifie
d
Mili
on
i di m
etri
cu
bi
2006
2010
Prof. Valeria Termini Milan, 21st March 2013 9
World’s major LNG exporting and importing countries
Source: BG group
Prof. Valeria Termini Milan, 21st March 2013 10
The emergence of gas hubs in Europe
Prof. Valeria Termini Milan, 21st March 2013 11
Where does gas come from?
TAP
ITGI
MEDGAZ
GALSI
TRANSMED
Source: ATKearney
Prof. Valeria Termini Milan, 21st March 201312
Geopolitica dell’energia: prezzi e consumi del petrolio 1964-2010
•Consumo mondiale di petrolio
•Milioni di barili al giorno
•P
rezzo
del
petr
olio