Undiscovered Resources Largest Undiscovered Field

MFS Prob. Oil (MMBO)

(0-1) F95 F50 F5 Mean F95 F50 F5 Mean F95 F50 F5 Mean F95 F50 F5 Mean

Oil Fields 4 76 219 423 231 69 215 517 244 4 13 32 15 18 43 120 52

Gas Fields 24 35 123 381 155 1 5 16 6 32 73 279 104

Total 1.00 76 219 423 231 104 338 899 399 5 17 48 21

1.00

La Luna and Older, Assessment Unit 60900104Assessment Results Summary

[MMBO, million barrels of oil. BCFG, billion cubic feet of gas. MMBNGL, million barrels of natural gas liquids. MFS, minimum field size assessed (MMBO or BCFG). Prob., probability (including both geologic and accessibility probabilities) of at least one field equal to or greater than the MFS. Results shown are fully risked estimates. For gas fields, all liquids are included under the NGL (natural gas liquids) category. F95 represents a 95 percent chance of at least the amount tabulated. Other fractiles are defined similarly. Fractiles are additive under the assumption of perfect

positive correlation. Shading indicates not applicable]

Field Type Gas (BCFG) NGL (MMBNGL) (MMBO or BCFG)

60900104La Luna and Older

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Oil in Oil Fields

Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 550.00 MMBOEntire range is from 11.86 to 843.24 MMBOAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 0.47

Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 230.75Median 219.07Mode ---Standard Deviation 106.16Variance 11,269.55Skewness 0.61Kurtosis 3.33Coefficient of Variability 0.46Range Minimum 11.86Range Maximum 843.24Range Width 831.38Mean Standard Error 0.47

Frequency Chart

MMBO

.000

.005

.011

.016

.022

0

272.2

544.5

816.7

1089

0.00 137.50 275.00 412.50 550.00

50,000 Trials 291 Outliers

Forecast: Oil in Oil Fields

Page 1

60900104La Luna and Older

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Oil in Oil Fields (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile MMBO100% 11.86

95% 76.1890% 102.1985% 120.9380% 137.4075% 152.2070% 166.0265% 179.5160% 192.6355% 205.5250% 219.0745% 233.2440% 248.0935% 262.8130% 279.5325% 297.6520% 317.7415% 341.7310% 373.40

5% 423.040% 843.24

End of Forecast

Page 2

60900104La Luna and Older

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Gas in Oil Fields

Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 700.00 BCFGEntire range is from 7.17 to 1,267.21 BCFGAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 0.63

Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 243.68Median 215.47Mode ---Standard Deviation 140.98Variance 19,874.26Skewness 1.22Kurtosis 5.14Coefficient of Variability 0.58Range Minimum 7.17Range Maximum 1,267.21Range Width 1,260.04Mean Standard Error 0.63

Frequency Chart

BCFG

.000

.006

.012

.019

.025

0

310.7

621.5

932.2

1243

0.00 175.00 350.00 525.00 700.00

50,000 Trials 465 Outliers

Forecast: Gas in Oil Fields

Page 3

60900104La Luna and Older

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Gas in Oil Fields (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile BCFG100% 7.17

95% 69.1690% 91.8985% 110.6580% 126.1675% 141.2770% 155.6065% 169.9260% 184.5155% 199.8350% 215.4745% 232.1340% 249.7935% 269.2530% 290.5125% 315.5220% 345.1815% 382.5410% 433.04

5% 517.260% 1,267.21

End of Forecast

Page 4

60900104La Luna and Older

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: NGL in Oil Fields

Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 40.00 MMBNGLEntire range is from 0.39 to 88.09 MMBNGLAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 0.04

Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 14.61Median 12.55Mode ---Standard Deviation 9.14Variance 83.52Skewness 1.44Kurtosis 6.16Coefficient of Variability 0.63Range Minimum 0.39Range Maximum 88.09Range Width 87.71Mean Standard Error 0.04

Frequency Chart

MMBNGL

.000

.006

.012

.018

.024

0

299

598

897

1196

0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00

50,000 Trials 971 Outliers

Forecast: NGL in Oil Fields

Page 5

60900104La Luna and Older

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: NGL in Oil Fields (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile MMBNGL100% 0.39

95% 3.8590% 5.1785% 6.2380% 7.1675% 8.0570% 8.9465% 9.8260% 10.6855% 11.5950% 12.5545% 13.5840% 14.7535% 15.9930% 17.3525% 19.0020% 20.8515% 23.3110% 26.68

5% 32.450% 88.09

End of Forecast

Page 6

60900104La Luna and Older

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Largest Oil Field

Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 150.00 MMBOEntire range is from 6.19 to 199.89 MMBOAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 0.14

Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 52.29Median 43.41Mode ---Standard Deviation 32.26Variance 1,040.70Skewness 1.61Kurtosis 5.99Coefficient of Variability 0.62Range Minimum 6.19Range Maximum 199.89Range Width 193.69Mean Standard Error 0.14

Frequency Chart

MMBO

.000

.008

.015

.023

.031

0

385

770

1540

0.00 37.50 75.00 112.50 150.00

50,000 Trials 981 Outliers

Forecast: Largest Oil Field

Page 7

60900104La Luna and Older

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Largest Oil Field (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile MMBO100% 6.19

95% 17.9290% 21.7185% 24.7380% 27.4075% 29.9370% 32.4765% 34.9860% 37.5955% 40.4650% 43.4145% 46.6540% 50.2535% 54.5030% 59.1525% 64.9020% 72.1715% 81.4310% 95.43

5% 119.630% 199.89

End of Forecast

Page 8

60900104La Luna and Older

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Gas in Gas Fields

Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 500.00 BCFGEntire range is from 24.35 to 1,441.13 BCFGAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 0.55

Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 155.06Median 122.55Mode ---Standard Deviation 122.35Variance 14,969.76Skewness 2.60Kurtosis 13.75Coefficient of Variability 0.79Range Minimum 24.35Range Maximum 1,441.13Range Width 1,416.78Mean Standard Error 0.55

Frequency Chart

BCFG

.000

.008

.016

.024

.031

0

393

786

1572

0.00 125.00 250.00 375.00 500.00

50,000 Trials 1,169 Outliers

Forecast: Gas in Gas Fields

Page 9

60900104La Luna and Older

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Gas in Gas Fields (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile BCFG100% 24.35

95% 35.0990% 46.8085% 60.8180% 69.7975% 77.8270% 86.0965% 94.5660% 103.2155% 112.7450% 122.5545% 133.3640% 145.2735% 158.1230% 173.6125% 192.1020% 215.4515% 246.6010% 292.47

5% 381.440% 1,441.13

End of Forecast

Page 10

60900104La Luna and Older

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: NGL in Gas Fields

Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 20.00 MMBNGLEntire range is from 0.53 to 71.61 MMBNGLAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 0.02

Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 6.21Median 4.80Mode ---Standard Deviation 5.17Variance 26.76Skewness 2.81Kurtosis 16.11Coefficient of Variability 0.83Range Minimum 0.53Range Maximum 71.61Range Width 71.08Mean Standard Error 0.02

Frequency Chart

MMBNGL

.000

.008

.015

.023

.030

0

379.7

759.5

1519

0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00

50,000 Trials 1,287 Outliers

Forecast: NGL in Gas Fields

Page 11

60900104La Luna and Older

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: NGL in Gas Fields (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile MMBNGL100% 0.53

95% 1.3790% 1.8085% 2.2380% 2.6275% 2.9870% 3.3165% 3.6660% 4.0255% 4.3950% 4.8045% 5.2440% 5.7435% 6.2930% 6.9225% 7.6920% 8.6915% 10.0210% 11.97

5% 15.630% 71.61

End of Forecast

Page 12

60900104La Luna and Older

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Largest Gas Field

Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 400.00 BCFGEntire range is from 24.35 to 999.32 BCFGAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 0.43

Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 103.90Median 73.00Mode ---Standard Deviation 97.09Variance 9,426.60Skewness 3.50Kurtosis 20.70Coefficient of Variability 0.93Range Minimum 24.35Range Maximum 999.32Range Width 974.97Mean Standard Error 0.43

Frequency Chart

BCFG

.000

.013

.026

.039

.052

0

647.2

2589

0.00 100.00 200.00 300.00 400.00

50,000 Trials 1,044 Outliers

Forecast: Largest Gas Field

Page 13

60900104La Luna and Older

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Largest Gas Field (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile BCFG100% 24.35

95% 32.2090% 36.6385% 40.5480% 44.3775% 48.3170% 52.5565% 57.0160% 61.6855% 67.0650% 73.0045% 79.6240% 87.4535% 96.3330% 107.2525% 120.4420% 138.4115% 162.9410% 201.59

5% 278.570% 999.32

End of Forecast

Page 14

60900104La Luna and Older

Monte Carlo Results

Assumptions

Assumption: Number of Oil Fields

Triangular distribution with parameters:Minimum 2Likeliest 14Maximum 30

Selected range is from 2 to 30Mean value in simulation was 15

Assumption: Sizes of Oil Fields

Lognormal distribution with parameters: Shifted parametersMean 11.34 15.34Standard Deviation 18.18 18.18

Selected range is from 0.00 to 196.00 4.00 to 200.00Mean value in simulation was 11.10 15.1

2 9 16 23 30

Number of Oil Fields

Page 15

60900104La Luna and Older

Monte Carlo Results

Assumption: Sizes of Oil Fields (cont'd)

Assumption: GOR in Oil Fields

Triangular distribution with parameters:Minimum 500.00Likeliest 666.67Maximum 2,000.00

Selected range is from 500.00 to 2,000.00Mean value in simulation was 1,056.02

0.20 44.42 88.64 132.86 177.07

Sizes of Oil Fields

500.00 875.00 1,250.00 1,625.00 2,000.00

GOR in Oil Fields

Page 16

60900104La Luna and Older

Monte Carlo Results

Assumption: LGR in Oil Fields

Triangular distribution with parameters:Minimum 30.00Likeliest 60.00Maximum 90.00

Selected range is from 30.00 to 90.00Mean value in simulation was 59.99

Assumption: Number of Gas Fields

Triangular distribution with parameters:Minimum 1Likeliest 1Maximum 4

Selected range is from 1 to 4Mean value in simulation was 2

30.00 45.00 60.00 75.00 90.00

LGR in Oil Fields

Page 17

60900104La Luna and Older

Monte Carlo Results

Assumption: Number of Gas Fields (cont'd)

Assumption: Sizes of Gas Fields

Lognormal distribution with parameters: Shifted parametersMean 51.75 75.75Standard Deviation 89.05 89.05

Selected range is from 0.00 to 976.00 24.00 to 1,000.00Mean value in simulation was 50.59 74.59

1 2 3 3 4

Number of Gas Fields

0.77 220.13 439.48 658.84 878.20

Sizes of Gas Fields

Page 18

60900104La Luna and Older

Monte Carlo Results

Assumption: LGR in Gas Fields

Triangular distribution with parameters:Minimum 20.00Likeliest 40.00Maximum 60.00

Selected range is from 20.00 to 60.00Mean value in simulation was 39.99

End of Assumptions

Simulation started on 7/13/99 at 16:10:56Simulation stopped on 7/13/99 at 16:27:25

20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00

LGR in Gas Fields

Page 19