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La décarbonation de la BelgiqueOù en sommes-nous?
FPS Health - Climate Change Section
Dr. Vincent van Steenberghe
OUTLINE
1. Context
2. Transition pathways for Belgium
3. National Energy and Climate Plan
4. Carbon pricing
5. Conclusions
Mauna Loa records
1960: ~315 ppm
2014: 400 ppm
Source: https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/
Since the industrial revolution
1960: ~315 ppm
2014: 400 ppm
1750: ~275 ppm
Source: https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/
Over 10 000 years
1960: ~315 ppm
2014: 400 ppm
1750: ~275 ppm
Source: https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/
6Over a very long period
Source: https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/
Fossil CO2 emissions are still rising at global level
Source: Global Carbon Project (2018)
COP21: Well below 2°C, 1.5°C if possible
IPCC SR1.5 model pathways
Source: IPCC SR1.5
emissions 2030: about -45% (from 2010 levels)
(2°C scenario: -20% by 2030)
Net zero around 2050(2°C scenario: net zero around 2075)
9
2018 202120202019 203020292022 20242023 20262025 2027 2028
Draft Plans
(2021-2030)
Final Plans
(2021-2030)
Progress report
Progress report
Progress report
Progress report
Draft update
(of 2030 Plan)
Final update
(of 2030 Plan)
Draft Plans
(2031-2040)
Final Plans
(2031-2040)
Talanoa dialogue
Global stocktake
Global stocktake
NDCs NDCs NDCs
Paris
LT Low Emission
Strategies
(2020-2070)
ENERGY UNION GOVERNANCE
Draft Plans
(2021-2030)
LT Low Emission
Strategies
(2020-2070)
PARIS AGREEMENT AMBITION MECHANISM
Final Plans
(2021-2030)
UK – Climate change Act
FR – Loi climat-énergie
DE – Energiewende + …
NL - …
National frameworks in neighbouring countries
Picture carbon
budgets
A compléter
Work in progress
OUTLINE1. Context
2.Transition pathways for Belgium
3. National Energy and Climate Plan
4. Carbon pricing
5. Conclusions
2050 challenge for Belgium
0,
30,
60,
90,
120,
Emissions
GHG emissions and projections in Belgium (1990 = 100)
1990 2050
2050 challenge for Belgium
0,
30,
60,
90,
120,
Emissions
Projection under existing measures
GHG emissions and projections in Belgium (1990 = 100)
1990 2050
2050 challenge for Belgium
0,
30,
60,
90,
120,
Emissions
Projection under existing measures
GHG emissions and projections in Belgium (1990 = 100)
1990 2050
It is technically feasible to decarbonise Belgium by 2050
Walloon region2012
Federal level2013
Flemish region2014
Brussels-Capital region2017
GHG emissions in Belgium
2017 GHG emissions in Belgium per sector (%)
Buildings residential
13,3%
Buildings tertiary4,8%
Transport22,5%
Industry energy17,6%
Industry combustion
11,8%
Industry processus17,2%
Agriculture10,8%
Waste1,3%
Other0,7%
Several pathways lead to climate neutrality
CORE (-80%)
LIFESTYLE SCENARIO
(-95%)
A set of 3 scenarios reaching ~95% GHG emission reduction (excl. land use changes)
TECHNOLOGY SCENARIO
(-95%)CORE 1.5°
(-95%)
Starting from the CORE 2013, this scenario goes further thanks to new societal paradigms & new development in technologies
This scenario reproduces the -80% GHG scenario from 2013 studyThis scenario
• Assumes societal patterns change significantly, particularly on diets with new alternatives, lower transport demand or housing area per person
• The circular economy is pushed to the maximum, massively reducing material flows
• Industrial activity is driven endogenously in the model with lowering demand
• Agro-forestry practices are encouraged
• Imports of food, energy and materials are limited
This scenario goes further into technology developments • Innovative technologies deploy
faster in transport• Assumes buildings energy
efficiency is very deep from better technology but the rate of refurbishments not as high
• Synthetic fuels & hydrogen are available as early as possible and exploited extensively to decarbonize, biofuels are not used as much
• CCS is used extensively• Agriculture is intensified• Industrial activity is driven
exogenously in the model with stable or higher demand
Preliminary – work in progress
Behavioural levers
• Reduction of demand (cf. Energy Pact target)
• Large shift towards public transport/active modes
• Increased vehicle occupancy and vehicle load
Technological levers
• Electrification of cars and vans
• H2, e-fuels and biofuels for HDV, boats, planes
Game-changers
• Automation and MAAS, including sharing
• Logistics hubs, cargo bikes, inland waterways
Transport pathways
Source: Espaces mobilités
Mobility as a service (MAAS)
Reducing demand
• Size of dwellings and t° management
• Insulation
Implementing new heating technologies
• Heat pumps
• Other, carbon-neutral sources
Key issues
• Depth and rate of renovation
• New business models for renovation
Buildings pathways
Source: Climate Change Committe (2018),
based on Imperial College (2018)
Combined use of heat pumps and H2 or e-fuels:
illustration
Industry pathways
51
3
23 21 20 21 20 19
12
1 0
2015non
industry levers
2050All 1 technology
development
-7
material efficiency
0-6
Scenario 1CC
4
energy carrier switch
material switch
30
-6 0-1
-10
1990technology
share
-97%
steel
Aluminium
Lime
Non-ferrous
Cement
Glass
Ceramic
Paper
Chemical ammonia
Chemical chlorine
Chemical olefin
Food
Chemical other
Wood
Other industries
Total
Levers such as circular economy, alternative fuels and feedstocks and CCS/U
have an important role besides energy efficiency and electrification
Industry CO2 emissions in illustrative low carbon scenario (MtCO2)
Source: Climact and Vito (2019)
Preliminary – work in progress
• Total energy demand is drastically reduced (up to almost 50%)
• Electricity production is carbon-neutral and increases in most scenarios, potentially
significantly
• H2 and e-fuels: production linked to intermittent energy sources vs import
• Biomass hierarchy principle
Energy production pathways
Graphe/illustration
Work in progress
• Towards a less intensive agriculture?
• New farming practices
• Role of soils and forests as carbon
sinks, including reforestation
Agriculture, forestry and land pathways
Source: ING international survey, Dec. 2018
Change in diets: illustration
A drastic reduction of carbon emissions does not necessarily imply reduced growth
Source: Federal Planning Bureau, Climact (2016)
GDP and CO2 emissions in Belgium
Impact in 2030 - BE
GDP: up to +2%
Jobs: up to + 80 000
And even much more rapid than expected
Rapid technological advances
UNEP (2018), based on Climateworks (2015)
Cumulative solar PV installations compared
to forecasts from various IEA WEO
OUTLINE1. Context
2. Long-term policy frameworks
3. Transition pathways for Belgium
4. National Energy and Climate Plan
5. Carbon pricing
6. Conclusions
Bottom up approach & integration
WG BHG
VG
klim
aa
t
en
erg
ieFED
Overarching planEntity plans form the basis of the draft NECP
Most important measures are included in the overarching
NECP, of which the entity plans are an integral part
Focus on sectors that are not part of the EU emissions trading scheme (non-ETS sectors)
2030 WAM-scenario non-ETS emissions (vs 2005)
26,427,3
12,8
7,7
4,4
19,4
14,6
9,8
5,1
2,20,
7,5
15,
22,5
30,
Transport Builidings Agriculture Industry Waste
Mto
n C
O2
-eq
-23%
-26%
-47%
-34%
-51%
2005 2030 2005 2030 2005 2030 2005 2030 2005 2030
emissions 2016
Transport, buildings and agriculture
• Reducing demand of mobility through
spatial planning
• Incentivising a modal shift
• Decarbonisation of remaning road
transport
• 14 % biofuel rate in 2030 (FED)
• 40 % sustainable commuters
transport (FL)
• 21 % reduction in vehicle-
kilometres by 2030 (BR)
• Renovation strategies
• Energy standards
• Financial incentives
• - 47 % GHG emissions in WAM-scenario
• Significant increase of renovation rate
• - 23 % GHG emissions in WAM-
scenario
• Focus on both energy and non-energy
emissions
• Developing energy crops (WAL)
• Green deal with the agriculture sector
(FL)
• Tackling food loss (FL)
2030 Ambitions include:
Measures include:
Transversal aspects
• Environmentally friendly taxation (BE)
Incl. National debate on carbon pricing
• Spatial planning policy (FL)
• Stimulating behavioural change (WAL, BR)
• Circular economy
Horizontal policies and measures:
axes, i.a.
Renewable energy sources
• BE contribution to EU target: 18,3% (vs 13% 2020 target)
• Offshore: 4GW (vs 1,86 GW end 2018)
• Biofuels percentage: 14%
• 1G: 7%
• 2G: 2% by 2021-2024; 5% by 2025-2029 and 7% by 2030
EC recommendations draft NECP
1. Complement the information on the policies and
measures needed to achieve the greenhouse gas target for
sectors not covered by the EU emissions trading system of -
35 % in 2030 compared to 2005
2. Significantly raise the level of ambition for 2030 to at least
25 % as Belgium’s contribution to the Union’s 2030 target for
renewable energy
3.Increase the energy efficiency ambition
…
8. List all energy subsidies, including in particular fossil fuels
subsidies, and actions undertaken as well as plans to phase
them out.
Reduction effort after 2030 will have to increase
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ind
ex (
refe
ren
ce y
ear
= 1
00
)
Existing mesures
Historical and projected GHG emissions - Belgium
Source: NIR (2019), PNEC (2018), own calculations
Reduction effort after 2030 will have to increase
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ind
ex (
refe
ren
ce y
ear
= 1
00
)
-0,9 MtCO2e/y
Draft NECP
Existing mesures
Historical and projected GHG emissions - Belgium
Source: NIR (2019), PNEC (2018), own calculations
Reduction effort after 2030 will have to increase
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ind
ex (
refe
ren
ce y
ear
= 1
00
)
-0,9 MtCO2e/y
-3,7 to -5,1 MtCO2e/y
Draft NECP
Existing mesures
Historical and projected GHG emissions - Belgium
Source: NIR (2019), PNEC (2018), own calculations
OUTLINE
1. Context
2. Transition pathways for Belgium
3. National Climate and Energy Plan
4. Carbon pricing
5. Conclusions
Carbon pricing is developing worldwide
Source: I4CE, 2019
Carbon pricing in Belgium
Energy pact (Dec. 2017)
“De koolstofprijs, is een uitwerking van het principe “de vervuiler betaalt” en vormt een
sleutelelement van het energiebeleid. […] De koolstofprijs zal worden bestudeerd en ingevoerd bij
niet-ETS-sectoren. De middelen die hiervan afkomstig zijn, zullen worden ingezet voor de financiering
van de transitie en met name bij de meest kwetsbare consumenten. Deze maakt het mogelijk het
energieverbruik en de uitstoot van broeikasgassen aanzienlijk te verminderen.”
Source: Visienota Belgisch Interfederaal Energiepact. Een gemeenschappelijke visie voor de energietransitie
3 principles for a successful implementation of carbon pricing
1. Long-term orientation
• Long-term signal for investment decision
• Increasing price, trajectory
2. Package of policies
• Carbon pricing alone does not suffice
• Substitution possibilities needed
3. Budget neutrality
• Various options available
• Compensation for vulnerable households
Carbon price trajectories
10 €2020
40 €2020
70 €2020
100 €2020
Historical and projected carbon prices ; potential carbon price trajectories for
Belgium (nominal prices)
Indicative impact on fossil fuel prices
Source: Own calculations on the basis of IPCC emission factors and Weekly Oil Bulletin
1,40 1,40 1,40 1,40 1,40 1,40 1,40 1,40 1,40 1,40
0,70 0,70 0,70 0,70 0,70
0,00
0,45
0,90
1,35
1,80
In €/l
+0,03+0,11
+0,19+0,27
+0,02+0,09
+0,16+0,22
+0,03+0,11
+0,18+0,26
0,06 0,06 0,06 0,06 0,06
0,00
0,02
0,05
0,07
0,09
In €/kWh
+0,00+0,01
+0,01
+0,02
Final 2018 prices 10 €/tCO2e 40 €/tCO2e 70 €/tCO2e 100 €/tCO2e
• In the short-term (2020), price changes by 2 to 4%
• In the mid-term (2030), price changes by about 10 to 25% (trajectory B, 70€/tCO2e)
Diesel Petrol Heating oil Heating gas
In €/lIn €/l
Buildings: prices are lower than in neighbouring countries
This is the case for both natural gaz and heating oilNatural Gas - 2nd semester 2018 (€ per MWh)
Source: Eurostat
Carbon price:
• All fossil fuels
• Through
excise duties
The decrease in energy demand results in a decreasing total average energy bill
Average annual energy bill for residential heating(1)
Source: Low carbon scenarios, own calculations
(1) in the low-carbon scenario under Option B (in €/household/year)
In the transport sector, the situation is different by vector
Source: Eurostat
• Petrol prices are lower
• Diesel prices are higher except for professional
diesel (reimbursement)
(Professional) diesel - 1st semester 2019 (€ per 1000 L)
Carbon price:
• All fossil fuels
• Through excise
duties with special
treatment for
professional diesel
• Road pricing
Several non-exclusive possibilities
• Energy vouchers for buildings (France)
• Support renovation poorest households (Ierland)
• Targeted transfers transport (France)
• Lump-sum transfers (Switzerland)
• Transfers poor housholds (British Columbia)
• …
Use of carbon revenues and Distributive issues
Swiss carbon tax: lump-sum distribution
of proceeds to every citizen
OUTLINE
1. Context
2. Long-term policy frameworks
3. Transition pathways for Belgium
4. National Climate and Energy Plan
5. Carbon pricing
6. Conclusions
The transition is taking off
Source: Loorbach (2007)
Every bit of warming matters
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