A WARREN, GORHAM & LAMONT PUBLICATION Vol. 16n No. 'l / Spring 1986

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. SuNcBn SyNnrcATroN Sares Dlr.q.

. SvNorcArroN Totrcs, David A. Smith

. RBn,r Esr,tre DnlrrNc, Allan Haymes

. Lpcar OtrNroN, Richard Harris

. Corr.q,TERALrzEo Monrcece OnrrcATroNS: AN INrnooucrloN, Donald I. Smith andF. Mark D'Annolf o

VerurNc Fn.q.crroN,q.r fNrrnesrs rN Crosrrv HBrn RsA.r Esrlrn Covtr.l,Nms,Robert P. Oliver

MonrclcEABrlrry or UNsuBoRDrNATnp GnouNp LnnsE S, Emanuel B. Halper

THn MAnKETING Myrn OF THE CnNruny: LoC,q.rrON, LoC.ntloN, LoC,I,TION,

Jonathan M. Rozek

CovrprNsATrNG Rn.q,r EsrA.rB's Nsw Bnsso: Tns AcqursITIoN SneclLr,lst,Jerry Kovach

Tnr.q,r TncnNreuEs oF Expnnr WrrNnssn s, N eil Carn, I oseph Rabianski, andJames D.Vernor

DsvnroprNc THE Rrcnr Appno.q.cH To ENvrnoNvrENTAL Rsvrsw Pnontnvrs,L Kevin Healy

RncocNrzrNc Aeusrvn Tex SnErrEns , Don P. Holdren and George E. Moody

QurNrrnyrNc UNcsRrArNry rN INvTsTMENT AN.q,rvsrs, K.B. Cady, C.S. PetQgrove'

and D.K. W estby

THB LnNo AssntvreLAGE LNt DnvrLopMENT P.q,nrNrnsHrP, James L. Northrup

LrsrrNc Pnrcrs Cercurl,rBo Fnovr MLS "CoMPS" CaN Mrsrnllo, Donald L. KyleandWilliam D. Parrish

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The Real Estate tnstitute of New York University

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also are highly persuaded by sight, touch, and theother senses. If it can be felt, test-driven, or steppedon, it is understandable and somehow more real.Real estate will always have an edge over productslike interest-rate futures and wind-energy invest-ments in luring the average person with money toinvest. The "real" in "real estate" subliminallypounds in the image of solid and indestructibleworth. Also, people are always searching to ownsomething that is one of a kind. This explains theinterest in "limited-edition collector's items," "de-signer originals," and monogrammed doormats.

These lsndsngig5-to simplify, to be guided bythe senses instead of the brain, and to seek thatwhich is unique-all come into play when a poten-tial buyer is being sold real estate. The sales pre-sentation must cater to these three human tenden-cies in order to be successful. The features of aparticular piece of real estate that can readily beperceived by the buyer's senses are its size, theappearance of the structure, and its location. Thesefeatures also satisfy the requirement of simplicity,at least on their surface. However, the first twofeatures do not fiIl that third need for uniqueness.Many people own the same amount of real estatein most any area; and the "improvements" or build-ings, though more individual, can still be duplicatedelsewhere and do not make the property unique.

Indeed, nothing makes a piece of real estate seemunique in quite the same way as location. As indi-vidualized and as unchangeable as fingerprints, thelocation often can be the swing-vote that makes abuyer's emotions win out over calculations andobjective reasoning. And as any good salespersonwould acknowledge, if you've got their hearts, theirminds will follow.

THE MARKET STUDY

Naturally, then, the flrst thing that is discussed indescribing a property is its location. This is usuallydone in the most general terms. To back up all hisclaims, the seller usually produces a "market study."The market study is ideally an objective, bird's-eyeview of the property. It should describe the prop-erty and its surroundings; make judgments aboutthe forces affecting local, state, and regional prop-erty values; and draw conclusions about the likelyfuture value of the real estate.

Considerable weight is usually given to the mar-ket study. Knowing this, sellers or packagers ofproperty have turned the market study into a com-plex art form. In fact, real estate promoters haveachieved with the market study what the greatest

alchemist-philosophers have longed to do for thc--sands of years: They turn lead into gold.

The best way to see how the market study ar::the location-is-everything concept can work togeth::to mislead the investor is to create an extren:example by taking the worst part of the core of ,major city and seeing what a creative real estal:promoter could do for it. The following abrid_e::market study refers to a property that is in one c:the worst ghettos in Boston, but could be found r:.many cities.l The comments in parentheses trans-late the underlined phrases and sentences into theunvarnished truth.

THREE RULES OF MARKET STUDY ANALYSIS

The preceding market study is an extreme er-ample. It takes one of the worst areas imaginableand makes it sound as good as possible. But thevery exaggeration highlights certain common char-acteristics of market studies. These characteristicsserve to enhance the property and create a larger-than-life impression. To aid in discarding this pro-motional material, the following three rules of mar-ket studies are set forth.

J The first rule. "If the fact being quoted infavor of the subject property is just as applicableto the town's jail, ignore it." The Pheasant Runproperty is not located just "in Boston," but in aspecific ared, in a specific neighborhood, next toparticular buildings. The quality of life within acity's boundaries is far too varied to fit into gen-eralizations about growth, transportation, and prop-erty values. Unfortunately, market researchers gen-erally rely on statistical data from the chamber ofcommerce, the census bureau, and other similarsources. Data-gatherers usually do not have thetime or money to do detailed statistical analyseswithin a city. Furthermore, these statistics oftenare not as recent as they should be: Depending onlocal events such as corporate relocations, bank-ruptcies, and other economic conditions affectingthe area, the figures cited could become outdatedwithin a matter of a few months. For instance,many census figures are compiled every ten years.

3 The second rule. "If statistics and facts arecited without relating them to some meaningfulrange or scale, ignore them." In the case of Pheas-ant Run, every piece of data used is accurate. The

1 Many of the statistics andlowing section are taken fromRated Almanac (1985).

rankings mentioned in the fol-R. Boyer & D. Savageau, Places

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abuse is not in the inaccuracy of the data, but inits irrelevance. Growth figures are only significantwhen compared to some valid average or benchmark. One should not be expected to know instinc-tively that a 12 percent growth in the job market ishigh or low. Similarly, if price-per-apartment-unitfigures or capitalization rates had been quoted, theywould only be valid when put in the context of localnorms, not general rules of thumb.

One must also make certain that the statisticmakes a relevant point. A recent market study citedHouston's record-breaking boom in housing con-struction, a trend that continued even after absorb-tion, occupancy, and rental rates (which were notmentioned) had significantly dropped. Building hadcontinued despite ominous events in the oil indus-try, with disastrous results.

A fhe third rule. "The market sudy is a one-dimensional view of a real estate market and welive in a three-dimensional world." A market re-searcher must always make decisions to include orexclude data. The choices are made for a varietyof reasons: Time and money limitations, the moti-vations of the researcher (or client) who may betrying to reach a particular conclusion, and theexperience and competence of the researcher in dis-covering the significant facts in the first place.

The problem is made worse because marketstudies fall short of even the controversial appraisalin that there are no widely adopted standards inthe industry, either in terms of the qualifications ofthe researcher or in what must be included in thestudy. Some investment proposals contain profes-sional, objective, and useful market studies, butmany are simply informal sections prepared by thepromoter himself and consisting of nothing morethan a partial list of "comparable" properties andtheir rents.

The best way to learn about a real estate mar-ket is to get information not only from the pro-

moter, but from other independent written and ore,sources. The critical goal when doing so is t.-

obtain data and opinions from sources with divers;motivations. A typical motivation of writers c-market studies has already been discussed. Pro-ntoters' motivations could be balanced by the vierr s

of a journalist, whose motivation is often to be thefirst to predict and announce ominous trends basecon interviews and written sources. Another highhfruitful source is the real estate promoter's compe-tition. Direct competitors often are intimately ac-quainted with the same areas and, indeed, may havebid-and been outbid-for the same properties.Information from all sources must, of course, bejudged in the context of the competence and hon-esty of the provider, and valued accordingly.

THREE CRITICAL FACTORS IN INVESIMENTANALYSIs

To summarize the preceding discussion: (1) forvarious reasons relating to human nature, manypeople have come to believe that location is, if noteverything, at least the one overwhelmingly impor-tant factor that must be considered when buyingreal estate; (2) location is most often describedand judged by means of market studies; and (3)market studies are often highly misleading descrip-tions that represent, at best, only one perspectiveand, at worst, a meaningless and abusive commer-cial. In reality, only hard work and stringent cross-examination of the information can yield worth-while conclusions.

What place, then, does location take in the proc-ess of analyzing real estate? It is only one of atleast three critical and interdependent factors, thecombination of which determines whether a particu-lar real estate investment is desirable.

The Role of Price vs. Risk and Return

Another factor as critical as location is price.There is a saying in the insurance industry thatthere is no such thing as a bad risk-only a badpremium. In other words, if the reward is highenough, then any level of risk is worth the gamble.Conversely, if the price is too low, even the smallestlevel of risk becomes too great to justify. This con-cept is often ignored or not understood by real estatepromoters, but it is of critical importance. Theopportunity presented by a piece of real estate, nomatter how good the location and other factorsare, can only be judged in relation to the cost ofacquiring that asset. There always is a price beyond

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