[email protected] www.pik-potsdam.de/~kropp/ Singapore, July
14th 2008 1 Towards a Climate Impact Monitoring Indicators,
archetypes and success factors for action Jrgen P. Kropp Potsdam
Institute for Climate Impact Reserach Budapest, Sept. 4-5 th
2008
Slide 2
[email protected] www.pik-potsdam.de/~kropp/ Singapore, July
14th 2008 Hierarchy of Adaptation Strategies & Concepts 1.
Global/Supranational 2. National KomPass Kompetenzzentrum
Klimafolgen und Anpassung 3. Regional/Local:? issue of ongoing
research Challenge: Strengthening efficiency of institutions, e.g.
by adequate facilitation/capacities, but how.... COMMISSION OF THE
EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES Brussels, 29.6.2007 COM(2007) 354 final GREEN
PAPER FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT,
THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE
REGIONS Climate change: building adaptive capacity of local and
regional authorities Chamber of the Regions
Slide 3
[email protected] www.pik-potsdam.de/~kropp/ Singapore, July
14th 2008 induced, intensified Portugal 2003 Tuvalu 2005 UK/Norfolk
2007 Randa/Switzerland 1991 > 8 Mio. to.? - safe environments -
Question: fight against or living with CC? Difficulties:
Insufficient knowledge Organisational problems Capacity problems
Problem of scales Understanding: Information, Awareness,
Communication,Vulnerability, Risk,Preparedness No action?
Slide 4
[email protected] www.pik-potsdam.de/~kropp/ Singapore, July
14th 2008 Necessary Preconditions for successful Adaptation
Distinguish between adaptation and adaptive capacity! 1. Systems
knowledge 2. Problem awareness 3. Adequate instruments 4. Success
measures (time?, which metric) Indicators measuring only a state
are not sufficient!
Slide 5
[email protected] www.pik-potsdam.de/~kropp/ Singapore, July
14th 2008 5 Stimulus: Storm Exposed unit: Forest sectors
Indicators: Tree types, slope, rel. storm intensity/frequency
Sectoral Vulnerability North-Rhine Westphalia/Germany (1999)
Source: Kropp et al. 2006, Climatic Change Actual Damage 2007 after
Cyclone Kyrill Nothing happens
Slide 6
[email protected] www.pik-potsdam.de/~kropp/ Singapore, July
14th 2008 Awareness/knowledge is a necessary, but not sufficient
precondition for adequate action! Drowning New Orleans by Mark
Fischetti Scientific American (October 1, 2001) The boxes are
stacked eight feet high and line the walls of the large, windowless
room. Inside them are new body bags, 10,000 in all. If a big,
slow-moving hurricane crossed the Gulf of Mexico on the right
track, it would drive a sea surge that would drown New Orleans
under twenty feet of water. "As the water recedes", says Walter
Maestri, a local emergency management director, "we expect to find
a lot of dead bodies". New Orleans is a disaster waiting to happen.
The city lies below sea level, in a bowl bordered by levees that
fend off Lake Pontchartrain to the north and the Mississippi River
to the south and west. And because of a damning confluence of
factors, the city is sinking further, putting it at increasing
flood risk after even minor storms. The low-lying Mississippi
Delta, which buffers the city from the gulf, is also rapidly
disappearing. A year from now another 25 to 30 square miles of
delta marsh - an area the size of Manhattan - will have vanished.
An acre disappears every 24 minutes. Each loss gives a storm surge
a clearer path to wash over the delta and pour into the bowl,
trapping one million people inside and another million in
surrounding communities. Extensive evacuation would be impossible
because the surging water would cut off the few escape routes.
Scientists at Louisiana State University (LSU), who have modeled
hundreds of possible storm tracks on advanced
computers...................
Slide 7
[email protected] www.pik-potsdam.de/~kropp/ Singapore, July
14th 2008 7 Risk prone area below 1m Tourism, Water & Sea-level
rise: Saidia Large scale tourism bad practice: Why developing
countries often follow the same pattern: Economy first vs.
Sustainability first Quelle: Tekken & Kropp 2008
Slide 8
[email protected] www.pik-potsdam.de/~kropp/ Singapore, July
14th 2008 8 Umweltlimits fr Saidia/Moulouya
1961-19901976-200520052050ff 383mm350mm245mm-100mm 2005 available:
Fresh water (~16 mm = 7% of prec.) 880 * 10 6 m 3 /J groundwater
(partly salinised)450 * 10 6 m 3 /J actual: 1330 * 10 6 m 3 /J
Demand (* 10 6 m 3 )20052015 Population (potable water) ~2.4.
Mio~2.5 Mio. 96100 (+3.8%) economy first golf courses: 1.9ha/hole;
9,000 m 3 /yr/ha210ha: 1.9400ha: 3.6 (+88%) 1 tourist ~ 6-800
l/d0.5 (?)2.6 (+420%) irrigated land 6,500m 3 /ha/J150 10 3 :
975180 10 3 : 1170 (+20%) Industry80117 (+46%) in 2015 163 bn l/yr
below sust. level Source: Tekken & Kropp 2008
Slide 9
[email protected] www.pik-potsdam.de/~kropp/ Singapore, July
14th 2008 EU Development Programme Developing Policies and
Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Region
(ASTRA, finished 2007) 38 Partners from 7 European countries Most
of them administrative bodies, management authorities, etc. 15 case
study areas were situated in Estonia, Finland, Germany, Lithuania,
Lativa and Poland 15 case study areas were situated in Estonia,
Finland, Germany, Lithuania, Lativa and Poland Are we ready for
adaptation?
Slide 10
[email protected] www.pik-potsdam.de/~kropp/ Singapore, July
14th 2008 Some results from systematic examinations Problem
awareness is primarily framed by potential impacts in the case
study regions, little explicit knowledge on policy responses,
exposure units are only described in a very vague or general way.
Problem awareness is primarily framed by potential impacts in the
case study regions, little explicit knowledge on policy responses,
exposure units are only described in a very vague or general way.
Climate change is still not a priority on the local or regional
level, and lack of financial resources hinders adaptation. Climate
change is still not a priority on the local or regional level, and
lack of financial resources hinders adaptation. Many constraining
institutional arrangements are seen as informal. They have the form
of complaints about soft factors as missing knowledge and citizens
awareness, inadequate education, political inaction and bad
coordination of diverse institutions. Many constraining
institutional arrangements are seen as informal. They have the form
of complaints about soft factors as missing knowledge and citizens
awareness, inadequate education, political inaction and bad
coordination of diverse institutions. Problems are more found on
the local scale, while enabling institutions and actors are seen on
higher levels. It is likely that there is a shift of
responsibilities to higher institutional scales (mitigation?).
Problems are more found on the local scale, while enabling
institutions and actors are seen on higher levels. It is likely
that there is a shift of responsibilities to higher institutional
scales (mitigation?). Most existing climate change policies are
related to Most existing climate change policies are related to
Natural hazards (event related) Natural hazards (event related)
National greenhouse gas mitigation strategies National greenhouse
gas mitigation strategies Although some responses advert at local
interactions between actors influencing implementation of
adaptation policies, there is little strategic knowledge on who
supports or constrains adaptation to climate change. Although some
responses advert at local interactions between actors influencing
implementation of adaptation policies, there is little strategic
knowledge on who supports or constrains adaptation to climate
change. Eisenack/Tekken/Kropp (2007): Coastline Report
Slide 11
[email protected] www.pik-potsdam.de/~kropp/ Singapore, July
14th 2008 11 Management of or Adaptation to risks need knowledge
about mechanisms! .but how to analyse entangled dynamics of socio-
ecological systems? .how to integrate policy on an acceptable level
of abstraction? how to assess efficiency of management
options?
Slide 12
[email protected] www.pik-potsdam.de/~kropp/ Singapore, July
14th 2008 Adaptation Functionals and Archetypes Challenges
modelling adaptation entangeled impacts, exposure units and
responses but need for transfer of adaptation strategies
aggregation of damages and adaptations on spatial and institutional
scales Approaches on an intermediate level of abstraction
archetypes of adaptation (including action dimension) adaptation
functionals (classes)
Slide 13
[email protected] www.pik-potsdam.de/~kropp/ Singapore, July
14th 2008 ASTRA: Preliminary Archetypes ArchetypePolicy
recommendations Compensation dilemma: erosion of planning standards
in high risk areas, investor-driven particular interests, ad-hoc
compensation schemes after desasters Mandatory building and
planning codes enforced from higher institutional levels, clear
rules for liabilities Shifting responsibilities: complaints about
public awareness and other institutions, call for higher
institutional levels Confront different stakeholders, initiate
joint commitees, awareness campaigns, resources form higher levels
Water supply: changed hydrological cycle, privatisation, closing of
wells, old infrastructure Keep community control, consider CC in
infrastructure redevelopment
Slide 14
[email protected] www.pik-potsdam.de/~kropp/ Singapore, July
14th 2008 Qualitative and Quantitative Methods Archetype XYZ Case
ACase BCase CCase idiographic local maps global maps mathematical
models causal loop diagrams ((M+ x y)) ((U- y z) (0 max)) ((MULT x
y z)) qualitative models 0111 1001Case B 1000Case A boolean
analysis participatory theories scenarios games cf. Kropp &
Scheffran 2007 Data driven models
Slide 15
[email protected] www.pik-potsdam.de/~kropp/ Singapore, July
14th 2008 Research Themes Theoretical development Aggregation and
scale issues (adaptation functionals, archetypes of adaptation)
Measuring adaptation and adaptedness Assessment and use of
transparent, science- based vulnerability indicators Basic
questions (e.g. terminology, necessity of policy action and
anticipation)
Slide 16
[email protected] www.pik-potsdam.de/~kropp/ Singapore, July
14th 2008 Faces of Vulnerability: Useful for comparison Disaster
Management Community Climate Change Community Development Community
Spatial scale local individual Challenges & Views Disaster
mitigation Robust Infrastructure Event oriented view Long-term
climate development & protection Exposed units and their
capacities Socio-economic constraints Millenium Development Goals
Current Livelihood conditions Global/regional Climate Change
Slide 17
[email protected] www.pik-potsdam.de/~kropp/ Singapore, July
14th 2008 17 Vulnerability, subjective but good for comparison
Prepared for UN Sigma Xi 2006
Slide 18
[email protected] www.pik-potsdam.de/~kropp/ Singapore, July
14th 2008 Top Down: National Policy Bottom up: Local Experience
Science & Stakeholder interaction Institutional
efficiency!
Slide 19
[email protected] www.pik-potsdam.de/~kropp/ Singapore, July
14th 2008 Construction of Archetypes Is a social process Style of
description based on common methodological ground Discourse on
shape and priority of patterns Quality control by process
documentation, achivement of (external) objectives, case studies,
available theories, validation of archetypes Needs refinement and
operationalization Possible with different methods
Slide 20
[email protected] www.pik-potsdam.de/~kropp/ Singapore, July
14th 2008 Semi-formalised elements of Adaptation Measures
constructing archetypes Time scale Duration (fixed/open) Temporal
scope Stream of costs & benefits Actors & Type Normative
orientation Institutional level Individual NGO Purpose & Form
Spatial scale Structural, legal, financial,... Retreat, prevent,
restore Performance Costs Efficiency Implementability Society
Vulnerability Target impacts Changes of socio-economics Mid-term
goal: shared problem solving competence (adaptation wizard) How
adaptation occurs Effect on policy Involved goods/properties
Adaptive control Area of intervention Regulatory instrument
Experiences BaWNRW-I/II
Slide 21
[email protected] www.pik-potsdam.de/~kropp/ Singapore, July
14th 2008 Hypothesis: To similar problems can be responded by
similar solutions! Questions: How vague or concrete are existing
measures defined? Are typical adaptations composed of different
measures, or are they simple building blocks? Are there established
classifications that help to distinguish or to generate measures?
What kind of activities are considered to be an adaptation?.....let
us start with the discussions
Slide 22
[email protected] www.pik-potsdam.de/~kropp/ Singapore, July
14th 2008 Towards a Global Climate Impact & Adaptation
Information System Combining: Scenarios, Impacts Infrastructure,
Solutions Information about adaptation experiences, costs (via
Geo-Tags), etc. Source: PIK/Kropp & Costa (2008) Kropp &
Daschkeit (2008)
Slide 23
[email protected] www.pik-potsdam.de/~kropp/ Singapore, July
14th 2008 PIK S V IRTUAL V EGETATION V ISUALISER