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Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon | 22.06.2009
The metabolic scale of the world economy in the past century
Fridolin Krausmann, Marina Fischer-KowalskiJulia Steinberger and Nina Eisenmenger
Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon | 22.06.2009
• Global metabolic scale
• Metabolic rates
• Global convergence scenarios
• Resource productivity
Overview
Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon | 22.06.2009
Global materials extraction = use (DMC)1900 to 2005
0
20
40
60
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
[bill
ion
to
ns]
Construction minerals
Ores and industrial minerals
Fossil energy carriers
Biomass
Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon | 22.06.2009
Global material extraction database
Material type Content Source
Biomass 165 primary crops incl. used crop residues (<50 crops)Roughage and grazed biomass (12 items)Wood harvest
FAO and predecessors; used crop residues (model); grazed biomass (model); wood harvest (FAO, various estimates)
Fossil energy carriers Hard and soft coal, petroleum, natural gas, peat
Podobnik 1995, United Nations 1950, IEA 2007
Ores 44 ores (gross ore) Metal content: USGS 2008Gross ores: estimate
Non metallic minerals 33 non-metallic minerals USGS 2008
Construction minerals Limestone for cement production, sand and gravel for construction
Conservative estimate; based on cement production; concrete production and asphalt production
Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon | 22.06.2009
0
20
40
60
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
[bill
ion
to
ns]
Construction minerals
Ores and industrial minerals
Fossil energy carriers
Biomass
Metabolic scale:Global materials use 1900 to 2005
Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon | 22.06.2009
Metabolic scale:Global materials use 1900 to 2005
-
5
10
15
20
25
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
[bill
ion
to
ns]
Biomass
Fossil energy carriers
Ores and industrialminerals
Construction minerals
Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon | 22.06.2009
0,0%
1,0%
2,0%
3,0%
4,0%
5,0%
DMC
[ave
rag
e an
nu
al g
row
th r
ate]
1900-1945 1945-1973
1973-2000 2000-2005
Periods of growth:Average annual growth rates (DMC, GDP, population)
0,0%
1,0%
2,0%
3,0%
4,0%
5,0%
DMC GDP Population
[ave
rag
e an
nu
al g
row
th r
ate]
1900-1945 1945-1973
1973-2000 2000-2005
Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon | 22.06.2009
Metabolic scale
Definition: metabolic scale is the size of the overall annual material (DMC) or primary energy input (TPES, DEC) of a socio-economic system, measured according to established standards of MEFA analysis.
The metabolic scale of the world economy has been increasing by one order of magnitude during the last century:
– Materials use: From 7 billion tons to over 60 bio t (DMC, all materials).
– Energy use: From 44 EJ primary energy to 480 EJ (TPES, commercial energy only).
Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon | 22.06.2009
Metabolic rate
Definition: Metabolic rate is the metabolic scale of a socio-economic system divided by its population number = annual material / energy use per capita
It represents the biophysical burden associated to an average individual
The global metabolic rate:
• Moderate growth from 1900 to 1945 (0.2%);
• Rapid growth from 1945 to 1973 (1.6%);
• Stabilization from 1973 to 2000 (0.6%) despite substantial economic growth; 8t/cap (DMC) and 60 GJ/cap (TPES).
• Since 2000: a new phase of growth (3.7%) can be observed.
Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon | 22.06.2009
Metabolic rates:Material and energy use per capita
-
20,0
40,0
60,0
80,0
100,0
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
TP
ES
[GJ/
cap/
yr]
-
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
DM
C [t
/cap
/yr]
TPES/cap (primary y-axis)
DMC/cap (secondary y-axis)
Energy
Materials
Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon | 22.06.2009
0
1
2
3
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
[bill
ion
to
ns]
Minerals
Ores
Fossil fuels
Biomass
National trends: metabolic scale (DMC)
0
20
40
6019
00
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
[bill
ion
to
ns]
Construction minerals
Ores and industrial minerals
Fossil energy carriers
Biomass
0
3
6
9
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
[bill
ion
to
ns]
Minerals
Ores
Fossil fuels
Biomass
0
1
2
3
4
5
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
[bill
ion
to
ns]
Construction minerals
Ores and industrial minerals
Fossil fuels
Biomass
Global
India: 8% of globalBrazil: 4% of global
USA: 15% of global
Sources:USA: Gierlinger 2009Brazil: Mayer 2009India: Lanz 2009
Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon | 22.06.2009
0
10
20
30
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
[t/c
ap/y
r]
Minerals
Ores
Fossil fuels
Biomass
National trends: metabolic rates
-
10,0
20,0
30,0
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
[t/c
ap/y
r]
Construction minerals
Ores and industrial minerals
Fossil energy carriers
Biomass
0
10
20
30
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
[t/c
ap/y
r]Construction minerals
Ores and industrial minerals
Fossil fuels
Biomass
0
10
20
30
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
[t/c
ap/y
r]
Minerals
Ores
Fossil fuels
Biomass
Global
IndiaBrazil
USA
Sources:USA: Gierlinger 2009Brazil: Mayer 2009India: Lanz 2009
Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon | 22.06.2009
Metabolic rate vs. income (GDP/cap):
R2 = 0.64
N = 175 countriesYear 2000
Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon | 22.06.2009
Metabolic rates by development status and population density
DMC t/cap in yr 2000
-
5
10
15
20
25
High densityindustrial
Low densityindustrial
High densitydeveloping
Low densitydeveloping (NW)
Construction minerals
Ores and industrial minerals
Fossil fuels
Biomass
Share of world population
Pop density
13%
123
6%
12
62%
140
6%
19
Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon | 22.06.2009
Scenario assumptions(all : relation between high density/low density countries remains
unchanged; population growth by UN projection)
1. Baseline 2000 scenario
2. Freeze and catching up: industrial countries maintain their metabolic rates of the year 2000, developing countries catch up to same rates
3. Factor 2 and catching up: industrial countries reduce their metabolic rates by factor 2, developing countries catch up
4. Freeze global DMC: global resource consumption by the year 2000 remains constant by 2050, industrial and developing countries settle for identical metabolic rates
Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon | 22.06.2009
Global metabolic rates in t/cap
Global convergence scenarios
0
4
8
12
16
Baseline 2000 Freeze &catching up
Factor 2 &catching up
Freeze globalDMC
Construction minerals
Ores and industrialmineralsFossil fuels
Biomass
Global metabolic scales in billion tonnes
0
40
80
120
160
Baseline 2000 Freeze &catching up
Factor 2 &catching up
Freeze globalDMC
Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon | 22.06.2009
Global convergence scenarios
Global metabolic rates in t/cap
Global metabolic scales in billion tonnes
-
6
12
18
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
me
tab
olic
ra
te [
t/c
ap
/yr]
Baseline 2000
Freeze & catching up
Factor 2 & catching up
Freeze global DMC
-
50
100
150
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
me
tab
olic
sc
ale
[G
t]
Baseline 2000
Freeze & catching up
Factor 2 & catching up
Freeze global DMC
Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon | 22.06.2009
Resource productivity:GDP per unit of materials and energy input
-
25
50
75
100
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
En
erg
y p
rod
uc
tiv
ity
[$
GD
P/G
J T
PE
S]
-
0,3
0,5
0,8
1,0
Ma
teri
al i
pro
du
cti
vit
y [
$ G
DP
/kg
DM
C]
Energy (primary y-axis)
Materials (secondary y-axis)
Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon | 22.06.2009
Resource productivity:GDP per unit of materials input (biomass/minerals)
-
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
19
00
19
05
19
10
19
15
19
20
19
25
19
30
19
35
19
40
19
45
19
50
19
55
19
60
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
20
05
Ma
teri
al p
rod
uc
tiv
ity
[$
GD
P/k
g D
MC
]
Biomass
Minerals
Biomass
Minerals
Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon | 22.06.2009
Thank you for your attention!
• Data download:
http://www.uni-klu.ac.at/socec/inhalt/1088.htm
• Publications:– Krausmann, F., Gingrich, S., Eisenmenger, N., Erb, K.H., Haberl, H., Fischer-
Kowalski, M. 2009. Growth in global materials use, GDP and population during the 20th century, Ecological Economics (in press).
– Krausmann, F., M. Fischer-Kowalski, H. Schandl, and N. Eisenmenger 2008. The global socio-metabolic transition: past and present metabolic profiles and their future trajectories. Journal of Industrial Ecology 12(5/6), 637-656.