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THE 14TH INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON KNOWLEDGE AND SYSTEMS SCIENCES (KSS'2013) Ningbo, China October 25-27, 2013 http://www.iskss.org/conference/KSS2013 Organized by International Society for Knowledge and Systems Sciences Co-organized by Institute of Systems Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences Japan Advanced Institute of Science of Technology Dalian University of Technology Shanghai Academy of Systems Science Systems Engineering Society of China IEEE SMC Beijing Chapter International Academy for Systems and Cybernetic Sciences Hong Kong Polytechnic University Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China CAS Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science Ningbo Association for Science and Technology Hosted by Ningbo Institute of Technology, Zhejiang University, China

KNOWLEDGE AND SYSTEMS SCIENCES - iskss.org Program Final.pdf · The 14th International Symposium on Knowledge and Systems Sciences Ningbo, October 25‐27, 2013 2 Wang, Mingzheng

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Page 1: KNOWLEDGE AND SYSTEMS SCIENCES - iskss.org Program Final.pdf · The 14th International Symposium on Knowledge and Systems Sciences Ningbo, October 25‐27, 2013 2 Wang, Mingzheng

THE 14TH INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON

KNOWLEDGE AND SYSTEMS SCIENCES

(KSS'2013)

Ningbo, China

October 25-27, 2013

http://www.iskss.org/conference/KSS2013

Organized by International Society for Knowledge and Systems Sciences

Co-organized by Institute of Systems Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences Japan Advanced Institute of Science of Technology Dalian University of Technology Shanghai Academy of Systems Science Systems Engineering Society of China IEEE SMC Beijing Chapter International Academy for Systems and Cybernetic Sciences Hong Kong Polytechnic University

Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China CAS Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science Ningbo Association for Science and Technology

Hosted by

Ningbo Institute of Technology, Zhejiang University, China

Page 2: KNOWLEDGE AND SYSTEMS SCIENCES - iskss.org Program Final.pdf · The 14th International Symposium on Knowledge and Systems Sciences Ningbo, October 25‐27, 2013 2 Wang, Mingzheng

Preface 

The annual international symposium on Knowledge and Systems Sciences aims to promote the exchange and interaction of knowledge across disciplines and borders to explore the new territories and new frontiers. Over the past 13 years, continuous endeavors to strictly define knowledge science have led to a very tolerant, broad-based and open-minded approach to the discipline. Knowledge science and systems science can complement and benefit each other methodologically. The first International Symposium on Knowledge and Systems Sciences (KSS2000), initiated and organized by Japan Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, was held in September of 2000. Since then KSS2001 (Dalian, China), KSS2002 (Shanghai, China), KSS2003 (Guangzhou, China), KSS2004 (JAIST, Japan), KSS2005 (Vienna, Austria), KSS2006 (Beijing, China), KSS2007 (JAIST, Japan), KSS2008 (Guangzhou, China), KSS2009 (Hong Kong, China), KSS2010 (Xi'an, China), KSS2011 (Hull, UK) and KSS2012 (JAIST, Japan) have been held successfully and many scientists and researchers from different countries contributed to all those symposia. Within 14 years, people interested in knowledge and systems sciences have been growing into a community; a specific international society has already existed for 10 years. KSS symposia exhibit the particular views toward complex problems solving even from her name.

This year, the 14th KSS symposium is still expected to provide excellent opportunities for presenting interesting new research results, facilitating interdisciplinary discussions, and leading to knowledge transfer and the synergetic generation of new ideas during October 25-27, 2013 in Ningbo, China. The theme of KSS2013 is Knowledge Creation toward Emergency Management. The topics of KSS 2013 include, but are not limited to, the following: creation of agent-based social systems sciences; cross-cultural learning on systems thinking and knowledge management; complex system modeling and complexity; decision support systems; knowledge creation, creativity support, awareness support, etc.; knowledge discovery, data mining, text mining, recommendation system and relevant Web intelligence tools; knowledge systems engineering and knowledge management; meta-synthesis and advanced modeling; problem structuring methods and system methodologies; social dynamic network modeling, etc.

Besides the featured plenary talks, we also add diverse elements, KSS Intensive School and Data Science Forum to the program. Four of the total five KSS School lectures will be presented in Chinese, which aims to disseminate the knowledge and experiences of KSS ideas, theories, and system practice to local audiences effectively. We hope you enjoy the knowledge and culture sharing in Ningbo.

Welcome to KSS2013!

KSS2013 presidents

Shouyang Wang Yoshiteru Nakamori

Weiliang Jin

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CONTENTS 

INTERNATIONAL PROGRAM COMMITTEE ..................................................1

ORGANIZING COMMITTEE............................................................................3

PRESENTATION GUIDELINES FOR PRESENTERS.....................................4

PROGRAM OVERVIEW..................................................................................5

GENERAL PROGRAM ....................................................................................6

KSS PLENARY TALKS..................................................................................13

KSS SCHOOL ...............................................................................................18

KSS SESSION I.............................................................................................26

KSS SESSION II............................................................................................32

KSS SESSION III...........................................................................................38

KSS SESSION IV ..........................................................................................44

KSS SESSION V ...........................................................................................50

KSS SESSION VI ..........................................................................................55

ABOUT NINGBO ...........................................................................................61

ABOUT ISKSS...............................................................................................62

ABOUT AMSS-CAS.......................................................................................63

ABOUT NIT-ZJU............................................................................................64

HOW TO GET TO THE CONFERENCE SITE...............................................66

LOCATION MAP............................................................................................67

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Page 5: KNOWLEDGE AND SYSTEMS SCIENCES - iskss.org Program Final.pdf · The 14th International Symposium on Knowledge and Systems Sciences Ningbo, October 25‐27, 2013 2 Wang, Mingzheng

The 14th International Symposium on Knowledge and Systems Sciences Ningbo, October 25‐27, 2013 

INTERNATIONAL PROGRAM COMMITTEE 

Chairs 

Nakamori, Yoshiteru (IASCYS Fellow & JAIST, Japan)

Wang, Shouyang (IASCYS Fellow & CAS Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, China)

Members 

Bai, Guohua (Blekinge Institute of Technology, Sweden) Bai, Quan (Auckland University of Technology, New Zealand) Brugha, Cathal M. (University College Dublin, Ireland) Chen, Jian (Tsinghua University, China) Dang, Yanzhong (Dalian University of Technology, China) Di, Zengru (Beijing Normal University, China) Du, Rong (Xidian University, China) Fang, Yong (CAS Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, China) Guo, Chonghui (Dalian University of Technology) He, Jing (Victoria University, Australia) Ho, Tu Bao (JAIST, Japan) Kijima, Kyoichi (Tokyo Institute of Technology, Japan) Lai, Kin Keung (City University of Hong Kong, China) Lee, W. B. (Hong Kong Polytechnic University, China) Liu, Yijun (CAS Institute of Policy and Management, China) Ma, Tieju (East China University of Science and Technology, China) Makowski, Marek (International Institute for Applied System Analysis, Austria) Midgley, Gerald (University of Hull, UK) Huynh, Van Nam (JAIST, Japan) Ohsawa, Yukio (University of Tokyo, Japan) Rong, Lili (Dalian University of Technology, China) Ryoke, Mina (University of Tsukuba, Japan) Tang, Xijin (CAS Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, China) Tsui, Eric (Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong) Wallner, Fritz (University of Vienna, Austria) Wan, Jiangping (South China University of Technology, China) Wang, Haibo (Texas A&M International University, USA)

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The 14th International Symposium on Knowledge and Systems Sciences Ningbo, October 25‐27, 2013 

Wang, Mingzheng (Dalian University of Technology, China) Wei, Yiming (Beijing University of Technology, China) Wu, Jiangning (Dalian University of Technology, China) Xi, Youmin (Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, China) Xia, Haoxiang (Dalian University of Technology, China) Yang, Jianmei (South China University of Technology, China) Yoshida, Taketoshi (JAIST, Japan) Yu, Lean (Beijing University of Chemical Technology, China) Yue, Wuyi (Konan University, Japan) Zhang, Minjie (University of Wollongong, Australia) Zhang, Ning (University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, China) Zhang, Pengzhu (Shanghai Jiaotong University, China) Zhang, Songmao (CAS Academy of Mathematics & Systems Science, China) Zhang, Wen (CAS Institute of Software, China) Zhong, Ning (Maebashi Institute of Technology, Japan) Zhu, Zhichang (University of Hull, UK)

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The 14th International Symposium on Knowledge and Systems Sciences Ningbo, October 25‐27, 2013 

ORGANIZING COMMITTEE  

Conference Presidents   

Shouyang Wang (CAS Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, China)

Yoshiteru Nakamori (Japan Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Japan)

Weiliang Jin (Ningbo Institute of Technology, Zhejiang University, China)

Organizing Committee 

Chair   

Zhonggen Zhang (Ningbo Institute of Technology, Zhejiang University, China)

Members 

Lina Cao (CAS Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, China) Jindong Chen (CAS Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, China) Liming Chen (Ningbo Institute of Technology, Zhejiang University, China) Xiaoyu Gong (Ningbo Institute of Technology, Zhejiang University, China) Yang Hu (CAS Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, China) Yan Huang (Ningbo Institute of Technology, Zhejiang University, China) Shuqin Li (Ningbo Institute of Technology, Zhejiang University, China) Xingsen Li (Ningbo Institute of Technology, Zhejiang University, China) Yong Lu (Ningbo Institute of Technology, Zhejiang University, China) Chaoyi Pang (Ningbo Institute of Technology, Zhejiang University, China) Can Wang (CAS Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, China) Hao Wang (Ningbo Institute of Technology, Zhejiang University, China) Lin Wang (CAS Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, China) Yicheng Wang (Ningbo Institute of Technology, Zhejiang University, China) Guangfei Yang (Dalian University of Technology, China) Ye Yang (Ningbo Institute of Technology, Zhejiang University, China) Haolan Zhang (Ningbo Institute of Technology, Zhejiang University, China) Yongliang Zhao (CAS Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, China) Yi Zheng (Ningbo Institute of Technology, Zhejiang University, China)

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The 14th International Symposium on Knowledge and Systems Sciences Ningbo, October 25‐27, 2013 

PRESENTATION GUIDELINES FOR PRESENTERS  

1. All presenters are required to register onsite at the Conference to receive your own conference package and name card.

2. There are projection equipments and computers at the presentation rooms. Please report to your session chair and copy your presentation file to the computer before the session. This will save time for changing over. If you use your own Apple laptop, please bring converter.

3. Unless you have been informed otherwise, 15 minutes has been allowed per presentation, 4 minutes for Q&A and 1 minute for changeover in parallel sessions.

4. WiFi will be available.

5. Welcome your comment via the KSS2013 on-line conferencing ba (accessible from KSS2013 Web site: http://www.iskss.org/conference/kss2013/).

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The 14th International Symposium on Knowledge and Systems Sciences Ningbo, October 25‐27, 2013 

PROGRAM OVERVIEW (Venue:NIT‐ZJU Campus,  浙江大学宁波理工学院) October 24, 2013 (Thursday, Ningbo Yinyuan Hotel)

16:00-19:00 Registration

18:00-20:00 Light Refreshment

October 25, 2013 (Friday)

Morning, Jin Zong Cheng Law School Hall 金宗成法学中心

09:00-09:30 Opening Ceremony, Chair: Jian Chen (China)

09:30-10:20 KSS Invited Plenary Talk I, Chair: Shouyang Wang (China)

Simon French (UK), Cynefin, Decision Analysis and Emergency Management

10:20-10:50 Photographing & Tea Break

10:50-12:00 KSS Plenary Talks, Chair: Yoshiteru Nakamori (Japan)

Kyoichi Kijima (Japan), Value Co-Creation Process and Value Orchestration Platform in Service Systems Science Perspective

Jian Chen (China), Performance of New Product Development and Sources of Idea Generation in China 12:00-13:30 Lunch (Academic Exchange Center 学术交流中心)

Afternoon, Admin Building (行政楼)

13:00-15:00 Data Science Forum (Room 1102)

15:00-16:30 KSS Session I (Room 1103 A-South)

Paper No.(1310, 1312, 1307, 1309, 1303)

KSS Session II(Room 1103 B-North)

Paper No.(1328, 1314, 1313, 1317, 1331)

16:30-16:50 Tea Break

16:50-18:20 KSS Session III ((Room 1103 A-South)

Paper No.(1322, 1321, 1323, 1320, 1332)

KSS Session IV (Room 1103 B-North)

Paper No.(1308, 1324, 1316, 1318, 1305)

18:30-20:30 Reception Dinner (Ningbo Yinyuan Hotel 宁波银苑大酒店颐和厅)

October 26, 2013 (Saturday), Admin Building (行政楼)

Morning Room 1102

08:30-09:50 KSS School I Chair: Jiangning Wu (China)

Yoshiteru Nakamori (Japan), Knowledge Creation Systems for Regional Revitalization

09:50-10:00 Tea Break

10:00-12:00 KSS School II&III: Chair: Wuyi Yue (Japan)

Jifa Gu (China), Wuli-Shili-Renli Systems Approach and Queuing Problem in Shanghai World Expo Yanzhong Dang (China), Knowledge Management Driven By Problems

12:00-13:30 Lunch (NIT 新宇食堂二楼)

13:30-15:20

KSS School IV&V: Chair: W. B. Lee (China) Wuyi Yue (Japan), Developments of Ambient Information Technologies and OR Approaches for Ambient-Aware

Information Environments Toshi Sugita (Japan), A Concept and The Practice of The Network Orchestration

10:00-15:00 Data Science Forum (Room 1103 A – South)

15:20-15:30 Tea Break

15:30-17:00 KSS Session V (Room 1102)

Paper No.(1301, 1315, 1319, 1327) KSS Session VI (Room 1103 B - North) Paper No.(1302, 1306, 1330, 1326, 1329)

17:10-18:00 Closing Ceremony, Room 1102, Chair: Xijin Tang (China) Addressing by Prof. Zhonggen Zhang (NIT-ZJU, China) & Closing Speech by Prof. Xijin Tang (CAS-AMSS, China)

18:30-20:30 Banquet (南苑新城大酒店)

October 27, 2013 (Sunday)

08:00-14:00 Half-day Tour in Ningbo City

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The 14th International Symposium on Knowledge and Systems Sciences Ningbo, October 25‐27, 2013 

GENERAL PROGRAM 

October 24 (Thursday)

16:00-19:00 Registration at Ningbo Yinyuan Hotel

18:00-20:00 Light Refreshment

20:00-21:00 ISKSS Council Meeting

Page 11: KNOWLEDGE AND SYSTEMS SCIENCES - iskss.org Program Final.pdf · The 14th International Symposium on Knowledge and Systems Sciences Ningbo, October 25‐27, 2013 2 Wang, Mingzheng

The 14th International Symposium on Knowledge and Systems Sciences Ningbo, October 25‐27, 2013 

October 25 (Friday Morning)

Location: Jin Zong Cheng Law School Hall (金宗成法学中心)

Opening Ceremony (Chair: Jian Chen, Tsinghua University, ISKSS Vice President)

09:00-09:30 Addresses by

Professor Shouyang Wang (ISKSS President, KSS2013 President and AMSS-CAS Vice President);

Professor Weiliang Jin (NIT-ZJU President & KSS2013 President);

Representatives of KSS2013 Sponsors

KSS Plenary Talks (Chair: Shouyang Wang, AMSS-CAS, ISKSS President)

09:30-10:20 Simon French (University of Warwick, UK )

Cynefin, Decision Analysis and Emergency Management

10:20-10:50 Photographing & Tea Break

KSS Plenary Talks (Chair: Yoshiteru Nakamori, JAIST, ISKSS former president)

10:50-11:30 Kyoichi Kijima (IASCYS Fellow & Tokyo Institute of

Technology, Japan )

Value Co-Creation Process and Value Orchestration Platform in Service Systems Science Perspective

11:30-12:10 Jian Chen (Tsinghua University, China)

Performance of New Product Development and Sources of Idea Generation in China

12:10-13:30 Lunch (Academic Exchange Center 学术交流中心)

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The 14th International Symposium on Knowledge and Systems Sciences Ningbo, October 25‐27, 2013 

October 25 (Friday afternoon)

Location: Admin Building (行政楼)

13:30-15:00 Data Science Forum Room 1102

15:00-16:30 KSS Parallel Sessions

Session I (Chair: Qiuhong Zhao, Beihang University, China) Room 1103A-South

Jin Xiao GMDH based Dynamic Transfer Ensemble Model for Customer Churn Prediction

Qiuhong Zhao Punishing-Characterized Active Learning Back-Propagation Neural Network Algorithm for a Big Data Environment

Xuejiao Cui Forest fire forecasting by meteorological factors based on associative Classification

Lingling Zhang Research on Algorithm of Post-processing Association Rules Based on Clustering and Domain Knowledge

Tao Sun Modeling Relationship between Economy and Industrial Pollution in China by Symbolic Regression

Session II (Chair: Mina Ryoke, University of Tsukuba, Japan)                            Room 1103B-North

Mina Ryoke Estimating Impact from Adjectives and Contexts to Product Evaluation

Jing-Zhong Jin A Partial-Comparison Based Kansei Evaluation Method

Wen-Tao Guo A Proportional 3-Tuple Fuzzy Linguistic Screening Evaluation Model in New Product Development

Fei Meng A study on Relationship between Kansei Marketing and Sales Volume

Y.T. Yip Knowledge Elicitation for the Formulation of Business Strategy

16:30-16:50 Tea Break

16:50-18:20 KSS Parallel Sessions

Session III (Chair: Simon French, University of Warwick, UK) Room 1103A-South

Yang Hu Risk Classification of Baidu Hot Word Based On Support Vector Machine

Lina Cao Analysis of Dynamic Topics Evolution Based on Tianya Club

Jindong Chen Exploration on Posts of Tianya Club and Preliminary Results

Yongliang Zhao A Preliminary Research of Pattern of Users’ Behavior Based on Tianya Forum

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The 14th International Symposium on Knowledge and Systems Sciences Ningbo, October 25‐27, 2013 

Xijin Tang Research Framework on Meta-synthesis System Approach Toward Complex

Problems

Session IV (Chair: Jiangning Wu, DLUT, China) Room 1103 B-North

Xiaoheng Zhang Knowledge Requirement Analysis Based on Organizational Task: A Perspective of Product Features

Jian Zhou Hall for Workshop of Meta-synthetic Engineering for Complex Product Design

Wei Zhang Knowledge Management as Strategies and Processes in Organizational Case Studies

Jing Sun Exploring Knowledge Creation Capabilities and Supporting Graduate Research Activities

Fan Lei Simulation of Effects of Relationship Conflicts on Team Creativity from the Individual Personality Perspective

18:30-20:30 Reception Dinner (Ningbo Yinyuan Hotel 宁波银苑大酒店颐和厅)

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The 14th International Symposium on Knowledge and Systems Sciences Ningbo, October 25‐27, 2013 

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October 26 (Saturday)

Location: Admin Building (行政楼)

08:30-15:20 Intensive School on Knowledge and Systems Sciences Room 1102

KSS School I (Chair: Jiangning Wu, DLUT, China)

08:30-09:50 Yoshiteru Nakamori (IASCYS Fellow & JAIST, Japan)

Knowledge Creation Systems for Regional Revitalization (地域复兴的知识创造系统)

09:50-10:00 Tea Break

KSS School II&III (Chair: Wuyi Yue, Konan University, Japan)

10:00-11:00 Jifa Gu (IASCYS Fellow & AMSS-CAS, China)

Wuli-Shili-Renli Systems Approach and Queuing Problem in Shanghai World Expo (物理-事理-人理系统方法论与世博排队)

11:00-12:00 Yanzhong Dang (DLUT, China)

Knowledge Management Driven By Problems (问题驱动的知识管理)

12:00-13:30 Lunch (NIT 新宇食堂二楼)

KSS School IV&V (Chair: W. B. Lee, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, China) 

13:30-14:30 Wuyi Yue (Konan University, Japan)

Developments of Ambient Information Technologies and OR Approaches for Ambient-Aware Information Environments (智能环境网络的信息技术的发展及智能环境的意志决策方法)

14:30-15:20 Toshi Sugita (Konan University, Japan)

A Concept and The Practice of The Network Orchestration (Network Orchestration 的概念与实践——日本优衣库和香港利丰如

何企划,构筑,运营,协调其供应链网络)

15:20-15:30 Tea Break

09:00-15:00 Data Science Forum Room 1103A

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The 14th International Symposium on Knowledge and Systems Sciences Ningbo, October 25‐27, 2013 

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October 26 (Saturday Afternoon)

Location: Admin Building (行政楼)

15:30-17:00 KSS Parallel Sessions

Session V (Chair: Jifa Gu, AMSS-CAS, China) Room 1102

Peipei Liu Decision Support for the Diffusion of Alternative Energy Vehicles

Jianli Gao Application of 3-D path planning ant colony algorithm in household inter-temporal uncertainty decision-making on life-cycle consumption

Brian Hilton The Cybernetics of Innovation and Knowledge: The Viable Systems Model Applied to the Silicon Valley Index and China

Yuan Zhao Performance Evaluation of a Dynamic Channel Allocation Strategy with Access Threshold in CRNs

Session VI (Chair: Xingsen Li, NIT-ZJU, China) Room 1103B - North

Zi-jian Ni A Semantic Model for Disaster Plans of China - National Earthquake Plans as a Case Study

Tingting Gao Research on the life cycle curve of emergency plan and revision strategy

Honglei Ge A Bayesian Sequential Decision-making Model for Emergency Supply Distribution with Disaster Information Update from Uncertainty to Certainty

Yu-Zhong Zhang Parallel-batch Scheduling with Rejection to Minimize the Total Weighted Completion Time

Shunfu Jin Performance Evaluation of the Active DRX Mechanism in LTE Project with a Sleep-delay Strategy

17:10-18:00 Closing Ceremony (Chair: Xijin Tang, AMSS-CAS, China) Room 1102

17:10-18:00 Address by Professor Zhonggen Zhang (OC Chair & NIT-ZJU, China)

Closing Speech by Xijin Tang (ISKSS Secretary General & AMSS-CAS, China)

18:30-20:30 Banquet (南苑新城大酒店)

Chaired by Prof. Kyoichi Kijima (Tokyo Institute of Technology, ISKSS Vice President) and Dr. Haolan Zhang (NIT-ZJU, China)

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The 14th International Symposium on Knowledge and Systems Sciences Ningbo, October 25‐27, 2013 

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October 27 (Sunday)

08:00-14:00 Half-day Tour in Ningbo City

14:00- Leaving

 

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The 14th International Symposium on Knowledge and Systems Sciences Ningbo, October 25‐27, 2013 

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KSS PLENARY TALKS  

1. Simon French (University of Warwick, UK)

Cynefin, Decision Analysis and Emergency Management

2. Kyoichi Kijima (IASCYS Fellow & Tokyo Institute of Technology, Japan) Value Co-Creation Process and Value Orchestration Platform in Service Systems Science Perspective

3. Jian Chen (Tsinghua University, China) Performance of New Product Development and Sources of Idea Generation in China

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The 14th International Symposium on Knowledge and Systems Sciences Ningbo, October 25‐27, 2013 

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1. Cynefin, Decision Analysis and Emergency Management Simon French University of Warwick, UK E-mail: [email protected]

Abstract: The talk with begin by discussing Snowden’s Cynefin framework for categorising the contexts in which

decisions are made. A number of examples will be given to demonstrate the value of this framework. We will then turn attention to sense making and learning and the relation of these to different forms of uncertainty. Next we will discuss recent developments in scenario-focused decision analysis to address contexts in which gross uncertainties are present. Then we shall discuss emergency management show how Cynefin can be used to chart the course of an emergency and suggest why emergency managers may lose public confidence through too tight a focus on short term technical issues in handling the emergency. We close with some reflections on how to address uncertainties in emergency management and the need for further research. Bio:

Simon French is the Director of the Risk Initiative and Statistical Consultancy Unit at Warwick University. Previously he was at Manchester Business School and the Universities of Manchester and Leeds. Simon has published widely with over 150 publications to his name. He was the founding editor of the Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis. In the last five years he has published two books with colleagues on Decision Behaviour, Analysis and Support and e-Democracy: a Group Decision and Negotiation Perspective.

Simon's research career began in Bayesian statistics, but nowadays he is better known for his work on decision making, which over the years has generally become more applied, looking at ways of supporting real decision makers facing major strategic and risk issues. In collaboration with psychologists he has sought to support real decision makers and stakeholders in ways that are mindful of their human characteristics. He has worked on the design of decision support systems, again recognising the need to temper the output of models with the needs and behaviours of their users. He also has worked on public risk communication and engagement and the wider areas of stakeholder involvement and deliberative democracy. Simon has worked across the public and private sectors, often in contexts that relate to the environment, energy, food safety and the nuclear industry. He has consulted for many regulators and organisations in the public sector: the Department of Health, the UK Food Standards Industry, the European Space Agency, the Health Protection Agency, and many parts of the nuclear industry. In all his work the emphasis is on multi-disciplinary and participatory approaches to solving real problems and the innovative use of technology in supporting decision making. He has a particular interest in supporting emergency management processes and was a founding member of ISCRAM, the International Association of Information Systems in Crisis Response and Management. Recently he has focused more on the sense-making and problem structuring that are necessary precursors to decision analysis.

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The 14th International Symposium on Knowledge and Systems Sciences Ningbo, October 25‐27, 2013 

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2. Value Co-Creation Process and Value Orchestration Platform in Service Systems Science Perspective Kyoichi Kijima IASCYS Fellow & Tokyo Institute of Technology, Japan E-mail: [email protected] Abstract:

With the establishment of sophisticated logistics and the rise of information technology, new service businesses, whether real or virtual, have become increasingly important. One common characteristic of these service businesses is that they have two layers. At the top layer, customers and providers interact with each other and co-create new values, while the bottom layer invites customers and providers to "get on the interaction process." It facilitates and orchestrates new value co-creation by inviting and matching customers and providers. We call this layer value orchestration platform.

Though the essential idea of value orchestration platform dates back several decades and its traditional examples include credit cards and shopping malls, brilliant success of new service businesses such as Apple App store, Amazon, and eBay is also due to the function at the value orchestration platform level.

The purpose of the presentation is to model value co-creation process and value orchestration platform as a hierarchical service system in service science perspective, and, then, to argue value orchestration management strategies in terms of them, by referring to recent typical businesses. To achieve the purpose, we first examine several major perspectives from which service has been argued so far and clarify our research position in service science. Then, we propose a process model of value co-creation consisting of four phases, i.e., co-experience, co-definition, co-elevation and co-development. Finally, by developing value orchestration platform model and relating it to the process model, we argue three management strategies for orchestrating value co-creation, i.e., (i) involvement, (ii) curation and (iii) empowerment strategies, all of which should be heavily supported by ICT, referring to actual cases of implementation of such strategies.

The concept of a value orchestration platform is not only for explaining about new service business models. It would also give us insights about public and volunteer services. Particularly, since the earthquake, tsunami, and the nuclear power plant disaster that occurred on March 11, 2011 in Japan, we have recognized that the community service system in the damaged areas should become a value-orchestration platform involving politicians, bureaucrats, doctors and medical staff, local people, and volunteers to support the local people. We will investigate a role of the model in the local revitalization context as well. Bio:

Kyoichi Kijima is Professor of Decision Systems Science, Tokyo Institute of Technology and Visiting Professor to Hull University Business School, UK, and School of Business Management, Bandung Institute of Technology, Indonesia.

He is a member of the International Society for the Systems Sciences, where he served as President of the Society in 2007. He also served as Vice President of International Society for Knowledge and Systems Sciences (ISKSS) and the International Federation of Systems Research

(IFSR). He is a member of The International Academy of Systems and Cybernetic Science (IASCS), and of World Organisation of Systems and Cybernetics (WOSC).

His main research interest is in systems science, especially in decision systems science and service systems

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science. He has been organized international intensive workshops and symposia on service systems science at Tokyo Tech annually since 2008.

He not only has published more than hundred refereed publications in high quality international journals but also is a member of the international committee for journals including Systems Research and Behavioral Sciences, Journal of Service Technology and Management, Risk Management, Journal of Systems Science and Complexity, Asian Journal of Management Science and Applications, and International Journal of Knowledge and Systems Sciences. Since 2013 he has worked as Editor-in-Chief of Translational Systems Sciences book series published by Springer.

He was in charge of conducting a Service Science, Solutions and Foundation Integrated Research Program funded by Japan Society of Science and Technology (JST) from 2010 till 2012. He also worked as Director of “Training Program for Design Innovators of Social Service Values” funded by Ministry of Education, Japan.

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3. Performance of New Product Development and Sources of Idea Generation in China Jian Chen Tsinghua University, China E-mail: [email protected] Abstract:

New products developed in emerging markets such as China, India and Brazil are not only sold locally but also ‘exported’ globally, suggesting a changing landscape for global innovation. Existing literature in technology learning and capability accumulation has long held the claim that, for a certain period of time in their development, firms in latecomer countries rely on their counterparts in developed countries to get new product ideas. However, existing research in this area is generally based on case studies and historical analyses; there are few empirical studies exploring the performance consequence of learning from competitors abroad. Using large-scale, nationwide survey data from China, we explore specifically whether learning about new product ideas from leading firms in foreign countries will lead to higher performance outcomes than other sources (i.e. domestic competitors, customers, universities or internal departments) in an emerging market. Our findings suggest that Chinese firms that source new product ideas from leading firms in foreign countries achieve overwhelmingly superior performance along financial, customer and technological dimensions. Implications to the managers and policy makers are also discussed. Bio:

Chen Jian received the B.Sc. degree in Electrical Engineering from Tsinghua University, Beijing, China, in 1983, and the M.Sc. and the Ph.D. degree both in Systems Engineering from the same University in 1986 and 1989, respectively. He is Lenovo Chair Professor and Chairman of Management Science Department, Director of Research Center for Contemporary Management, Tsinghua University. His main research interests include supply chain management, E-commerce, decision support systems. Dr. Chen has published over 100 papers in refereed journals and has

been a principal investigator for over 30 grants or research contracts with National Science Foundation of China, governmental organizations and companies. He has been invited to present several plenary/keynote lectures. He is the recipient of Ministry of Education Changjiang Scholars, Fudan Management Excellence Award, IBM Faculty Award, Science and Technology Progress Awards of Beijing Municipal Government; the Outstanding Contribution Award of IEEE Systems, Man and Cybernetics Society; Science and Technology Progress Award of the State Educational Commission; Science & Technology Award for Chinese Youth. He has also been elected to IEEE Fellow. He serves/served as a Regional VP of the Production and Operations Management Society(2010-2012), Chairman of the Service Systems and Organizations Technical Committee of IEEE Systems, Man and Cybernetics Society, Vice President of Systems Engineering Society of China, Vice President of China Society for Optimization and Overall Planning, a member of the Standing Committee of China Information Industry Association. He also serves/served as editor/area editor/associate editor/editorial board member for many international journals.

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KSS SCHOOL  

1. Yoshiteru Nakamori (IASCYS Fellow & JAIST, Japan)

Knowledge Creation Systems for Regional Revitalization (地域复兴的知识创造系统))

2. Jifa Gu (IASCYS Fellow & AMSS-CAS, China) Wuli-Shili-Renli Systems Approach and Queuing Problem in Shanghai World Expo (物理-事理-人理系统方

法论与世博会排队问题)

3. Yanzhong Dang (DLUT, China) Knowledge Management Driven By Problems (问题驱动的知识管理)

4. Wuyi Yue (Konan University, Japan) Developments of Ambient Information Technologies and OR Approaches for Ambient-Aware Information Environments (智能环境网络的信息技术的发展及智能环境的意志决策方法)

5. Toshi Sugita (Konan University, Japan) A Concept and The Practice of the Network Orchestration (Network Orchestration 的概念与实践——日本优

衣库和香港利丰如何企划,构筑,运营,协调其供应链网络)

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1. Knowledge Creation Systems for Regional Revitalization (地域复兴的知识创造系统) Yoshiteru Nakamori IASCYS Fellow & JAIST, Japan E-mail: [email protected] Abstract:

In this talk we present an approach to community service systems construction from the viewpoint of knowledge creation. First, we introduce one of the knowledge management theories: the theory of knowledge construction systems that has been formulated in light of local revitalization. Then, we will expand our perspective from knowledge creation to service value co-creation, and consider its purposes, contents, difficulties, features, and challenges. Finally, we will propose a method for developing community service systems based on the theory of knowledge construction systems, presenting an illustrative example. Bio:

Yoshiteru Nakamori received a PhD in applied mathematics and physics from Kyoto University in Kyoto, Japan, in 1980. He then served for the Department of Applied Mathematics, Faculty of Science at Konan University in Kobe, Japan. During the period from September 1984 to December 1985, he stayed at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Laxenburg, Austria, where he joined the Regional Water Policies Project. He joined Japan Advanced Institute of Science and Technology in April 1998 as professor in the School of

Knowledge Science. He served as the dean of this school from April 2001 to March 2007. From October 2003 to March 2008 he was the leader of a research program on theory and practice of technology creation based on knowledge science. The goal of this program was to create a world-class center of excellence in (1) theoretical research—with a final target of strategic research and the development of scientific technologies, in which knowledge fusion and development in important scientific fields are studied and then a theory of scientific knowledge creation is established; and (2) practical research—as theories are developed, they are applied in scientific laboratories and are approved by feedback from practice. Repeating this task, the theory is improved and the creation of useful scientific technologies is promoted. At the same time, graduate students are trained in this environment and are taught to become knowledge coordinators or knowledge creators. Nakamori joined the establishment of the International Society for Knowledge and Systems Sciences in December 2003 and served as president of the society until December 2008.

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2. Wuli-Shili-Renli Systems Approach and Queuing Problem in Shanghai World Expo (物理-事理-人理系统方法论与世博会排队问题) Jifa Gu IASCYS Fellow & AMSS-CAS, China E-mail: [email protected] Abstract:

This paper introduces the queuing problem happened in Shanghai World Expo in 2010. We will use Wuli-Shili-Renli (WSR) System approach to discuss this queuing problem and divide it in three aspects: physical, psychological and social. This research is supported by 973 Research program “Studies on the perception and law of social collective behaviors under the hybrid information network” sponsored by Ministry of Science and Technology of China (2010-2014). This research is done by a virtual team using interdisciplinary studies; it covers operations research, system science, psychology, sociology and information sciences. Bio:

Jifa Gu is currently Professor of Operations Research and Systems Engineering at the Institute of Systems Science, Academy of Mathematics and System Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences. He graduated in Peking University majoring Computational mathematics, and got his Ph. D in USSR Academy of Sciences majoring Operations Research. He had been Professor in Japan Advanced Institute of Science and Technology for four years,part time Professor of Management school, Chinese Academy of Sciences University, part time professor of Management School of

Dalian University of Technology, academician and vice president of International Academy of Systems and Cybernetics. He had been the President of Systems Engineering Society of China, President of International Federation for Systems Research.

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3. Knowledge Management Driven By Problems (问题驱动的知识管理) Yanzhong Dang DLUT, China E-mail: [email protected] Abstract:

问题驱动型知识管理,定义了“问题”,“问题处理事实”和“问题处理知识”等基本概念。在详细

讨论了问题处理事实和问题处理知识特点的基础上,提出了问题处理事实的“事实树模型”和“逻辑型动

态因果网络模型”。特别是,针对模型中的逻辑关系进行了深入研究,提出了四种基本因果关系和消解“逻

辑或”并简化因果网络的模型转化方法。进一步,提出了设置“关系结点”并获取和计算模型参数的方法,

简化了定量建模过程。给出了基于“逻辑型动态因果网络模型”的建模算法框图,最后以某企业的实际产

品质量问题为例对本文提出的模型和建模方法进行了实例分析。本文提出的模型和方法可十分方便地进行

知识积累、知识共享和问题分析,为知识管理提供了一种新的有效手段,也为解决实际问题提供了决策支

持。本文研究内容具有广泛应用领域,对知识管理具有一般性意义。

Bio:

党延忠,大连理工大学系统工程研究所所长,教授,博导,国家自然科学基金委

第十一届、十二届专家评审组成员,国家重点学科“管理科学与工程”大连理工

大学负责人、辽宁省重点学科“管理科学与工程”负责人。国际知识与系统科学

学会 Vice president,管理科学与工程学会副理事长,中国系统工程学会常务理

事,国际信息系统学会中国分会常务委员。在 80 年代初期就开始从事信息系统研

发工作,主持完成了辽宁省重点科研项目,开发了“智能型、集成化、交互式县级农业规划决策支持系统”。

近年主持三项与知识管理和技术相关的国家自然科学基金项目“决策分析中知识的模糊理论处理方法的研

究”,“决策分析中经验与直觉的可视化处理理论和方法研究”(优),“项目管理中项目关联分析与立

项决策支持系统研究”(特优)及一项国际合作项目“决策支持系统中基于面向对象的模糊结构建模方法”,

还协助王众托院士主持国家自然科学基金重点项目“企业(组织)知识管理的若干基本问题研究”、重大

国际合作项目“知识集成与知识创新的基础理论研究”。2001 年开始针对国家自然科学基金委进行了全面

的信息化与管理变革研究,主持完成了“国家自然科学基金信息化建设与信息系统总体规划与设计”、“国

家自然科学基金委员会资助项目研究成果管理体系及研究结果评价方法的研究”、“国家自然科学基金管

理流程设计”、“自然科学基金资助工作管理体系功能分析与总体设计”、“国家自然科学基金委员会项

目经费财务管理工作流程研究与设计”、“国家自然科学基金资助项目成果采集与展示系统研究”、“自

然科学基金资助项目后评估系统研究”。先后研究并开发包括辽宁省科技厅、科技基金管理等多个适用的

DSS 和 MIS。主持完成了 863 项目“企业知识管理方法与企业本体论”研究工作。目前正在主持国家自然科

学基金重点项目“面向产品生命周期的知识协调管理若干理论与方法研究”的研究,在知识管理、信息系

统开发等方面已发表论文 80 余篇。先后获得 5项省部级科技进步奖。

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4. Developments of Ambient Information Technologies and OR Approaches for Ambient-Aware Information Environments (智能环境网络的信息技术的发展及智能环境的意

志决策方法) Wuyi Yue Konan University, Japan E-mail: [email protected] Abstract:

This presentation first gives an overview of the current knowledge on developments of Ambient Information Technologies (AITs) and discusses challenges and future directions of Operations Research (OR) approaches for decision making in Ambient Information Environments. Then this presentation will describe the general concepts of ambient information environments, provide some example scenarios for ambient assisted living, and discuss the involved problems in AITs and OR approaches for ambient-aware information environments.

AITs integrate several advanced devices such as sensors, displays, and actuators, middle wares, and applications in Virtual Reality (VR) environments, so as ambient information technologies enable users to unconsciously access abundant information sources through several types of devices in a timely fashion, depending on users' context, which are non-intrusively sensored and tracked by the environment for improving their quality of experiences.

An ambient information environment can provide advice or guidance to avoid dangers and hazards, and the networks need to be selected based on the situation. However, users find it complex in interacting with such environments due to the presence of numerous devices and services. Therefore, the decision making process to support the users is needed. One way is by apply OR approaches for decision making in ambient information environments. This presentation will introduce on some examples to provide well-balanced nutrition plans to the user based on his preferences and also focus that in the future how information for decision making can be gathered from intelligent sensor devices that are monitoring and interpreting the user's actions in such environments with AITs. Bio:

Dr. Wuyi Yue received her B.Eng. degree in electronic engineering from Tsinghua University, China, and M.Eng. and Dr.Eng. in applied mathematics and physics from Kyoto University, Japan. She is currently a professor at the Department of Intelligence and Informatics, Konan University, Japan. She is also Dean of Faculty of Intelligence and Informatics, Konan University, Japan.

Dr. Yue is a Fellow of the Operations Research Society of Japan, a senior member of the IEICE of Japan, a member of the IEEE, the System Engineers Society of China, the Operations Research

Society of China. She has served at plural international conferences and symposia as chair (co-chair) or member of the organizing committee, technical program committee, steering committee, and program committee, local committee. She is also on the editorial of board of Journal of Industrial and Management Optimization, Journal of International Association of Engineers, Journal of Nonlinear Dynamics and Systems Theory, Journal of Dynamics of Continuous, Discrete and Impulsive Systems, and other journals.

Dr. Yue's research interests include queuing theory, stochastic processes, optimal methods and operations research as applied to system modeling, performance analysis and evaluation, and optimal resource allocation of wired and wireless/mobile communication networks (including mobile cellular, multi-hop, Intellectual Information mobile communication networks), multimedia communication networks, traffic systems, stochastic systems, information systems and systems engineering.

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Dr. Yue is a co-editor and a Guest Editor to publish Special Issues in top journals and publish monographs by Kluwer Academic Publishers, Springer and other publishers. She also published refereed papers as an author or a co-author in journals and international conference proceedings such as IEEE Transactions on Communications, IEEE Journal on Selected Areas in Communications, IEEE Transactions on Vehicular Technology, Journal of Computer and Communication, Journal of International Transactions in Operational Research, Journal of Telecommunication Systems, IEICE Transactions on Communications, IEICE Trans. on Fundamentals of Electronics, Communications and Computer Sciences, Journal of Optimization and Engineering, Journal of Industrial and Management Optimization and other international journals in the related fields.

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5. A Concept and The Practice of the Network Orchestration (Network Orchestration 的概念

与实践——日本优衣库和香港利丰如何企划,构筑,运营,协调其供应链网络) Toshi Sugita Konan University, Japan E-mail: [email protected] Abstract:

Network Orchestration是什么?

Network Orchestrator又是什么?

企业在其发展过程中,为什么需要Network Orchestration? Network Orchestrator在其中起到的作用是什么?

企业在国际市场竞争中通过供应链寻求发展,重要的不单是营销或物流问题,也不单是电脑信息网络问题,

而是企业整体战略问题。而这个战略性问题的核心,则是企业的战略设计能力,领导艺术和企业内及企业间

的组织能力,也就是供应链网络的企划,构筑,运营和协调等问题。

此报告通过对日本和香港两家在国际市场较为成功的跨国公司的案例研究,可以让大家看到Network Orchestration和Network Orchestrator的具体形象,并得到一些重要的启发。

注: 此报告是从企业战略论和组织论角度的观察和议论。虽不是有关OR或信息网络领域的报告,但此报告

将对这些专业领域也有重要的参考价值。

参考: 杉田俊明的本报告的部分内容已刊登在:北京大学光华管理学院《北大商业评论》(PKU Business Review) 2007年11月号。

Bio: 杉田俊明, 现任:

日本 甲南大学 经营学部(管理学院) 教授

主要兼职:

日本 跨国公司学会 理事 兼 跨国公司研究(杂志) 总编辑

日本 中国经营管理学会 理事

日本 国际商务研究学会 干事

原 中国•中山大学 管理学院 MBA中心 客座教授(负责国际商务讲座)

原 中国•中山大学 企业管理研究所 特约教授(国际商务顾问)

原 中国•南开大学 经济学院 Visiting Professor(学术交流)

原 中国•复旦大学 经济学院 Visiting Professor(学术交流)

简历∶

日本 东京生, 日本国籍

曾在商社工作,担任日本跨国企业中国•亚洲地区业务负责人

后在咨询公司工作,担任日本跨国企业中国•亚洲地区业务负责人

现任甲南大学经营学部(管理学院)教授

主要专业•研究方向:

国际商务,跨国经营等

主要著作(已刊著书17册。含单著2册, 编著1册,共著14册。日文版):

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单著《中国商务经营学》 DIAMOND 出版社,1996

单著《国际商务形态与中国的经济发展》中央经济出版社,2002

编著《从亚洲的进口与采购》 同文馆出版社,1999

主要论文•学会发表:

近百篇(次) (详见杉田俊明研究室网站、日文版)

担任企业调研业务的概况∶

杉田俊明教授每月均在跨国企业进行调研,并应各国经济团体及企业邀请,为企业的首脑讲课,为企业培

训国际商务,国际工商管理业务负责人。(含中国)

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KSS SESSION I  

1310 Jin Xiao, Yuan Wang, Xin Gu, Shouyang Wang GMDH based Dynamic Transfer Ensemble Model for Customer Churn Prediction

1312 Qiuhong Zhao, Feng Ye, Shouyang Wang Punishing-Characterized Active Learning Back-Propagation Neural Network Algorithm for a Big Data Environment

1307 Guangfei Yang, Xuejiao Cui, Lian Lian Forest fire forecasting by meteorological factors based on associative Classification

1309 Lingling Zhang, Jun Li, Xingsen Li, Liang Zhang, Yong Shi Research on Algorithm of Post-processing Association Rules Based on Clustering and Domain Knowledge

1303 Tao Sun, Guangfei Yang, YanZhong Dang, Lian Lian Modeling Relationship between Economy and Industrial Pollution in China by Symbolic Regression

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1310 GMDH based Dynamic Transfer Ensemble Model for Customer Churn Prediction

Jin Xiao†, Yuan Wang‡, Xin Gu*, Shouyang Wang** † Business School, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610064, China, [email protected] ‡ Department of Industrial and systems engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, 32608, Florida, [email protected] * Business School, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610064, China, [email protected] ** Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190, China, [email protected] (Corresponding author) Keywords: Customer Churn Prediction, Transfer Ensemble Model, Imbalanced Class Distribution, Resampling Method, Group Method of Data Handling Abstract:

It is difficult to get satisfactory churn prediction results by traditional models, because the available customer samples in target domain are usually few and the class distribution of customer data is imbalanced. This study proposes a group method of data handling (GMDH) based dynamic transfer ensemble (GDTE) model for churn prediction. It first transfers the data in related source domains to the target domain by transfer learning technique, and then adopts resampling technique to balance the class distribution of the training data. Finally, it trains a series of base classifiers and dynamically selects a proper classifier ensemble for each test sample by GMDH. The experimental results in two datasets show that the performance of GDTE is better than that of one traditional churn prediction strategy, as well as three transfer learning strategies.

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1312 Punishing-Characterized Active Learning Back-Propagation Neural Network

Algorithm for a Big Data Environment

Qiuhong Zhao†, Feng Ye†, Shouyang Wang‡ † School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing, 100191, China ‡ Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190, China [email protected] Keywords: Back-Propagation (BP) Neural Network; Active Learning; Punishing-Characterized Active Learning (PCAL); Big Data. Abstract:

This paper introduces the active learning strategy and proposes a back-propagation neural network algorithm based on punishing-characterized active learning (PCAL-BP) to address big data conditions. The PCAL-BP algorithm selects samples and punishments based on the absolute value of the prediction error to improve the efficiency of learning complex data. This approach involves reducing the learning time and improving the precision of the forecast. Numerical analysis shows that the PCAL-BP algorithm is superior to the traditional BP neural network algorithm in both learning efficiency and prediction accuracy. This advantage is more prominent in the case of extensive sample data. In addition, the PCAL-BP algorithm is compared with 16 types of classical classification algorithms. The PCAL-BP algorithm is superior to 14 types of algorithms for the classification experiment used here. The experimental results indicate that the prediction accuracy of the PCAL-BP algorithm can continue to increase with an increase in sample size.

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1307 Forest fire forecasting by meteorological factors based on associative

Classification

Yang Guangfei †, Cui Xuejiao †*, Lianlian‡ †School of Management Science and Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, China ‡ School of Transportation and Logistics, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, China *[email protected] Keywords: Forest fire, Meteorological Factors, Associative Classification, Imbalanced Datasets Abstract:

Forest fire is a very important interference factor in forest ecosystem and is also a potential threat of forest ecosystem succession process. In this paper associative classification is applied on studying the relationship between forest fire and meteorological factors in the Great Khingan. Traditional associative classification uses support-confidence paradigm and the generated classifier is a collection of rules ranked using confidence or variation based on it. However the class distribution of forest fire dataset is imbalanced, i.e., the proportion of samples from fire-occur class is much smaller than no-fire class. Obviously, the fire-occur class is the class of interest. So the conventional support-confidence based associative classification does not perform well in such a case. In our study, we combine the association rule mining , statistical measure and Relative Correlated Rate (RCR) to build an associative classifier (AC). A new rule evaluation method is also proposed. Results show that this method has a better performance on imbalanced datasets.

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1309 Research on Algorithm of Post-processing Association Rules Based on Clustering

and Domain Knowledge

Lingling Zhang†**, Jun Li†** , Xingsen Li*, Liang Zhang†**, Yong Shi** †School of Business, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China *Ningbo Institute of Technology, Zhejiang University, Zhejiang, China **Research Center on Fictitious Economy and Data Science, CAS, Beijing, China Keywords: association rule; clustering; domain knowledge Abstract:

This paper proposed second mining of the result of association rule mining, because the traditional association rules mining algorithm produces a large number of redundant rules, and designed the algorithm for clustering of association rules, then assessed the novelty of the association rules after clustering based on the existing domain knowledge. We insisted that the association rules with more novelty and higher value can be stored in the domain knowledge base, and can be used for the decision or mining again. The algorithm proposed is effective to reduce the number of rules and also improve the novelty and precision of rule, which has a very high value for business applications. Finally we used the open source data from UCI for experiment to verify the effectiveness of the algorithm.

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1303 Modeling Relationship between Economy and Industrial Pollution in China by

Symbolic Regression

Sun Tao †, Yang Guangfei †*, Dang YanZhong† , Lianlian‡ †School of Management Science and Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, China ‡ School of Transportation and Logistics, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, China *[email protected] Keywords: Symbolic Regression, Genetic Programming, Environmental pollution Abstract:

In this paper, we aim at finding the relationship between economy and environmental pollution automatically according to three kinds of pollution indices of 283 cities from 2003 to 2010 in China. Most of researchers in the previous empirical studies have concentrated on the relationship based on hypothetic models, these models are made artificially. The method used in this article is known as symbolic regression, which is based on one evolutionary algorithm-genetic programming. Through comparing the predictions of linear regression, nonlinear regression, symbolic regression via GP, we can get results: 1) the predictions of symbolic regression via GP are better than linear and nonlinear regression; 2) the relationship between economy and pollution (SO2, IS) can be identified.

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KSS SESSION II  

1328 Mina Ryoke, Yukihoro Yamashita, Yoshiteru Nakamori Estimating Impact from Adjectives and Contexts to Product Evaluation

1314 Jing-Zhong Jin, Yoshiteru Nakamori A Partial-Comparison Based Kansei Evaluation Method

1313 Wen-Tao Guo, Van-Nam Huynh, Yoshiteru Nakamori A Proportional 3-Tuple Fuzzy Linguistic Screening Evaluation Model in New Product Development

1317 Fei Meng, Yoshiteru Nakamori A study on Relationship between Kansei Marketing and Sales Volume

1331 Yip,Y.T. , Lee, W.B. and Tsui, Eric Knowledge Elicitation for the Formulation of Business Strategy

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1328 Estimating Impact from Adjectives and Contexts to Product Evaluation

Mina Ryoke, Yukihoro Yamashita, Yoshiteru Nakamori Faculty of Business Sciences, University of Tsukuba School of Knowledge Science, Japan Advanced Institute of Science and Technology [email protected], fyukiyama,[email protected] Keywords: Product evaluation, subjective evaluation data, kansei engineering, structural equations modeling Abstract:

When people express their feeling or impression on products, adjectives would be frequency em- ployed. At the same time, some persons may mention ideas how they would like to utilize the products. Or some persons may mention the rea- son why they would like to look for the ideal products. Some persons may mention the occasion to use the products. Let us define the context such as those situations. This paper aims at estimating impact from adjectives and contexts to product evaluation by using the structural equations modeling. The results are expected to make the balance of impact from between adjectives and contexts when a criterion is developed by integrating customer’s multiple desires.

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1314 A Partial-Comparison Based Kansei Evaluation Method

Jing-Zhong Jin, Yoshiteru Nakamori School of Knowledge Science, Japan Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, 1-1 Asahidai, Nomi City, Ishikawa, 923-1292 Japan {jinjingzhong, nakamori2012}@gmail.com Keywords: Partial-Comparison, Kansei Engineering, Kansei Evaluation, Decision Analysis, Kansei Data. Abstract:

This paper aims to find a new evaluation method for collecting Kansei1 data, which is based on a partial-comparison process; and a specification method based on customer‟s target, which is suitable for the special Kansei data obtained from partial-comparison process. For collecting Kansei data, we randomly select 5 objects from all objects, and ask people to compare them on each Kansei attribute. After many times comparisons, many comparison lists will be obtained. With these lists, we map them into a directed graphic, and with using some graphic processing techniques, we combine all the comparison lists into a whole list without any contradictions, and we map the whole list into a certain range as our evaluated Kansei data. To access these special Kansei data, we also discussed two specification methods based on semantic differential method. To test the new method on collecting Kansei data and the specification method, a comparison system and an evaluation system are developed.

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1313 A Proportional 3-Tuple Fuzzy Linguistic Screening Evaluation Model in New Product

Development

Wen-Tao Guo, Van-Nam Huynh, Yoshiteru Nakamori School of Knowledge Science, Japan Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, 1-1 Asahidai, Nomi, Ishikawa 923-1292, Japan [email protected] Keywords: Confidence Levels, Linguistic Modeling, Missing Information, New product screening, Proportional 3-Tuple Abstract:

It is particularly important for companies to screen new products before new products are launched to the markets. So far, lots of approaches have been excavated. However, due to uncertain, vague and incomplete information as well as dynamically complex process regarding to new product development (NPD), many approaches face with various limitations and restrictions, which lead to a dilemma that evaluators can’t take into account the aspects related to human nature, such as confidence levels, integrity of subject judgments, to evaluate new products reasonably. In this paper, we propose a proportional 3-tuple fuzzy linguistic evaluation model for screening new products and related computation operator based on canonical characteristic values (CCV). It is shown that this new model has a good ability to reflect human nature through the probability and the variable representing missing information. Thus, it not only can reflect the confidence levels of evaluators in the way of probability, but is also able to refract accuracy of subject judgment, whereby improving the precision and reasonability of final result.

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1317 A study on Relationship between Kansei Marketing and Sales Volume

Fei Meng, Yoshiteru Nakamori School of Knowledge Science, Japan Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, 1-1 Asahidai, Nomi City, Ishikawa, Japan {mengfei, nakamori}@jaist.ac.jp Keywords: Kansei, Kansei value creation, Kansei marketing, traditional crafts industry,marketing strategies Abstract:

Japanese industries have been experiencing structural changes such as declining population and competition from neighboring countries. Both sales volume and employees of traditional Japanese crafts industry are reducing because of the changes. Researches that focus on Kansei Value creation are expected to be a solution to this problem. Dissimilar to conventional values such as functionality and price that have served as sources of competitiveness in manufacturing, Kansei Value is a new measure of value which is actualized when a product or service appeals to the Kansei of ordinary citizens and arouses their emotions and empathy. The meaning of the words Kansei, Kansei Value, and Kansei Marketing will be explained later. This paper investigates the cases based on Kansei Value Creation and summarizes its approaches in marketing and sales activities. Furthermore, the relationship between Kansei value creation approaches and traditional crafts’ sales volume is described. Finally, strategies which aim to increase traditional crafts industry’s sales volume are provided from the perspective of Kansei Value creation.

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1331 Knowledge Elicitation for the Formulation of Business Strategy

Yip,Y.T. , Lee, W.B. and Tsui, Eric Knowledge Management and Innovation Research Centre, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Hong Kong, China [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Keywords: business strategy, macro-micro transition, knowledge elicitation, intellectual capital, evaluative inquiry Abstract:

In many organizations, the formulation of a business strategy is driven by a structured process and initiated by senior management in a top-down manner. Usually, a standard template such as the Strengths-Weaknesses- Opportunities-Threats (SWOT) analysis is used. There is a missing linkage between management’s macroscopic view and frontline staff’s microscopic view. When the macroscopic issues were over emphasized, there is a missing dynamic fine-grained guidance on staff in relation to the overall strategy. Meanwhile, when microscopic issues are over stressed, there is a missing bird-view and overall direction. According to James Coleman’s renowned scheme for macro-micro-macro transitions (1994), macro-conditions and micro-foundations (inclusive of micro-assumptions, micro-behaviors and micro-transition rules) influence one another dynamically. In a similar sense, the process of business strategy formulation should not be a static process, but an iterative and dynamic one with sensemaking element (Bryan, 2010; Stevens, 2013). This research aims at exploring knowledge elicitation methods to find out the micro-activities and concerns of front line staff from their daily operation (at microscopic level) to arrive at a business strategy (at macroscopic level) that are of concerns to the company as a whole. Two cases were present to illustrate how such transition could be made in the generation of strategy map, one from an intellectual capital audit (Lee et.al, 2013) as well as one from the evaluative inquiry approach (Preskill, H., & Torres, R. T., 1999).

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KSS SESSION III  

1322 Yang Hu, Xijin Tang Risk Classification of Baidu Hot Word Based On Support Vector Machine

1321 Lina Cao, Xijin Tang Analysis of Dynamic Topics Evolution Based on Tianya Club

1323 Jindong Chen, Xijin Tang Exploration on Posts of Tianya Club and Preliminary Results

1320 Yongliang Zhao, Xijin Tang A Preliminary Research of Pattern of Users’ Behavior Based on Tianya Forum

1332 Xijin Tang Research Framework on Meta-synthesis System Approach toward Complex Problems

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1322 Risk Classification of Baidu Hot Word Based On Support Vector Machine

Yang Hu, Xijin Tang Institute of Systems Science, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100190 P.R. China [email protected], [email protected] Keywords: SVM, text classification, text extraction, Baidu hot word, Tencent Weibo Abstract:

Web text mining has provided a new approach to analyzing problems such as earthquake warning and terrorism monitoring, etc. In Web text mining, text classification is a widely leveraged method. In this paper, we combine text classification and search records from search engine together to facilitate detection of societal risk with referring to Tecent Weibo’s volume at the same time. Here SVM is utilized to automatically identify risk category of Baidu hot word after extracting the news content linked by the first page of Baidu hot word search results. By implementing the process of SVM (Support Vector Machine) to text classification, we report the results of multi-classification experiment on Baidu hot word with some discussions. Finally, future research field is given.

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1321 Analysis of Dynamic Topics Evolution Based on Tianya Club

Lina Cao, Xijin Tang Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190, China {caolina, xjtang}@amss.ac.cn Keywords: topic models, Dynamic Topic Model, Latent Dirichlet Allocation, topics evolution, Tianya Club Abstract:

On-line public opinion is an important part of social public opinion in today's society. How to grasp the on-line public opinion and detect the hot topics are wicked problems and also new challenges for governance. In our research, in order to structure such wicked problems, Dynamic Topics Models (DTM) and Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) are applied to explore the changing topics of new posts collected from Tianya Zatan Board of Tianya Club. Those online data reflect the community opinions toward social problems.

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1323 Exploration on Posts of Tianya Club and Preliminary Results

Jindong Chen, Xijin Tang Institute of Systems Science, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190 P.R. China {j.chen,xjtang}@amss.ac.cn Keywords: text classification, SVM, multi-class classification, posts, Tianya Club Abstract:

To explore the tacit knowledge of posts of Tianya Club, an attempt is made to identify the risk categories of posts on Tianya Club with support vector machine (SVM). The workflow of posts classification using SVM is provided at first. Then, similarities analysis of posts on Tianya Club and multi-class classification of posts using SVM with different training set are implemented. The similarity analysis reveals the difficulty in multi-class classification of posts on Tianya; and the predictive results indicate that SVM could be applied to posts multi-class classification, but still need further exploitation.

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1320 A Preliminary Research of Pattern of Users’ Behavior Based on Tianya Forum

Yongliang Zhao, Xijin Tang Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China [email protected], [email protected] Keywords: Web mining, users’ behavior, Poisson distribution, power law, hot degree Abstract:

The fast development of Internet makes it an ocean of data. In order to find useful information, the Web mining technology comes into being. We get data from Tianya Forum with spider program and store them in file system and database; then we investigate the pattern of users’ behavior based on the data of “Tianya Zatan” board in 2012. The result is that users spend less time online on non-working days, the distribution of clicks is described by the mixture of Poisson distribution and power law, while the distribution of replies is power law. What is more, we evaluate the hot degree of posts with four different methods and push daily ranking lists to study the pattern of users’ behavior in hot posts.

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1332 Research Framework on Meta-synthesis System Approach toward Complex Problems

Xijin Tang Institute of Systems Science Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190, China [email protected] Keywords: Meta-synthesis system approach, group argumentation, societal risk perception, harmony society measures, BBS posts, Baidu hot search words Abstract:

This talk at first introduces a framework to conduct the meta-synthesis system approach proposed by the Chinese system scientist Professor QIAN Xuesen (1911-2009) and his colleagues towards open complex giant systems. MSA is expected to make full use of cutting-edge information technologies and aims to achieve knowledge creation and wisdom emergence along human-machine collaborative complex problem solving process. This talk will briefly address some research topics on MSA by Meta-synthesis and Knowledge Science group at Institute of Systems Science during the past 20 years.

Then we address how to apply MSA to a big issue, how to measure a harmonious society, a typical societal issue. Several indicators of harmonious society measurement are briefly addressed, while disadvantages are existed. Then we explore to make use of on-line information for societal risk perception, as one supplement to traditional social psychological approach. Basic ideas are addressed.

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KSS SESSION IV  

1308 Lili Rong, Xiaoheng Zhang Knowledge Requirement Analysis Based on Organizational Task: A Perspective of Product Features

1324 Jian Zhou, Fu Xiao, Yaoqin Zhu Hall for Workshop of Meta-synthetic Engineering for Complex Product Design

1316 Wei Zhang, Yoshiteru Nakamori Knowledge Management as Strategies and Processes in Organizational Case Studies

1318 Jing SUN, Yoshiteru NAKAMORI Exploring Knowledge Creation Capabilities and Supporting Graduate Research Activities

1305 Fan Lei, Jiangning Wu Simulation of Effects of Relationship Conflicts on Team Creativity from the Individual Personality Perspective

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1308 Knowledge Requirement Analysis Based on Organizational Task:A Perspective of

Product Features

Lili Rong†, Xiaoheng Zhang‡* Institute of Systems Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, 116024 [email protected] Keywords: Organization, Tasks, Products, Knowledge requirement, evaluation Abstract:

Identification of knowledge requirement of an organization is significant for knowledge management, and knowledge requirement is determined by the organizational task to a great extent. A knowledge requirement identification method is proposed based on organizational task characteristics, which are generated from features of product that the organization provides. First of all, based on the three major industries’ detailed products that obtained from “United Nation: Central Product Classification (CPC) Ver.2”, we analyzed three objective attributes of the products: (1) Skills need for production; (2) whether an individual is capable of the production or not; (3) the production process characteristics of the products. Then, based on the features of the products, we proposed three dimensions of organizational task characteristics: knowledge requirement, organization degree and life cycle characteristics of tasks. Finally, we analyzed the organizational knowledge requirement respectively based on the three task characteristics.

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1324 Hall for Workshop of Meta-synthetic Engineering for Complex Product Design

Jian Zhou, Fu Xiao, Yaoqin Zhu College of Computer, Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Nanjing China School of Computer Science and Technology, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing, China [email protected] Keywords: HWMSE, meta-synthetic, complex product design Abstract:

How to improve the design efficiency of complex product with meta-synthesis is a valuable research problem. The research achievements of complex product design based on meta-synthesis, which has been made by the author’s research group, is summarized in this paper. First, the process model and the general framework of complex product design based on meta-synthesis are established. Then, the architecture and the key technologies of HWME is presented, including group argumentation and group decision, project management, 3-d visualization, model and data management. Finally, a prototype system of HWME for complex product design is developed.

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1316 Knowledge Management as Strategies and Processes in Organizational Case Studies

Wei Zhang, Yoshiteru Nakamori School of Knowledge Science, Japan Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, 1-1 Asahidai, Nomi City, Ishikawa, Japan {w-zhang, nakamori}@jaist.ac.jp Keywords: Knowledge management, case studies, knowledge strategy, knowledge process,failures and obstacles. Abstract:

The purpose of this study aims at examining the successful aspects and failures in knowledge management researches by reviewing case studies. An in-depth review of knowledge management (KM) papers is adopted as the research approach. The industry distributions of case studies, data collection methods, strategy and processes of knowledge management implementation, obstacles and failures have been surveyed in this study, according to the review of KM case studies in organizations, to exploit the available methods and to avoid the failing aspects, as a result to accelerate the knowledge management process and maximize the effort of knowledge management strategy.

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1318 Exploring Knowledge Creation Capabilities and Supporting Graduate Research

Activities

Jing Sun, Yoshiteru Nakamori School of Knowledge Science, Japan Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, 1-1Asahidai, Nomi, Ishikawa 923-1292, Japan Email: {Jingsun328, nakamori}@jaist.ac.jp Keywords: Knowledge creation, knowledge creation capabilities, research activities, models Abstract:

Knowledge management and knowledge creation are in rapid development these years, which are applied in diverse fields. However, the research in the academic field is very limited. This paper focused on the academic field in a concrete way. There are three models proposed by Wierzbicki and Nakamori [30] explained the research process in academia: Inter-subject EDIS spiral, Experimental EEIS spiral and Hermeneutic EAIR spiral. We applied and modified these three models in the School of Knowledge Science, Japan Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (JAIST). There are some additional findings that there are gaps between professors and students on the understanding of research process. And this study focused on this gap. By literature review and our modified models, we defined the knowledge creation capabilities in academia and specified the research activities. Then we link the activities with capabilities, and analyze the research activity from knowledge creation capability perspective, and proposed some suggestions in order to better assist students’ research activities.

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1305 Simulation of Effects of Relationship Conflicts on Team Creativity from the

Individual Personality Perspective

Fan Lei, Jiangning Wu Institute of Systems Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, 116024, China [email protected], [email protected] Keywords: relationship conflict, knowledge transfer, personality, team creativity Abstract:

Nowadays many corporates make use of teams to complete tasks that individuals could not tackle alone. To effectively fulfill the tasks, team members with different backgrounds work collaboratively and communicate constantly. In the process, relationship conflicts within the team inevitably occur due to clashes in personality and or values, of which relationship conflicts are empirically proved to be negative for the completion of tasks. The paper focuses on the relationship conflicts resulted from exchanging and sharing the knowledge between team members. To measure the effects of relationship conflicts on knowledge transfer and moreover the team creativity, a three-dimensional feature model is firstly proposed to represent the individual personality, and then employed to define the conflicts. Based on the developed interactive rules between team members, some simulations have been conducted to investigate the relationship conflicts coming from psychological and social aspects and their effects on changes of knowledge stock within the team. Findings from the simulation show that relationship conflicts are negative for the improvement of team creativity. For different types of teams, the so-called active teams have the higher creativity than the silent teams when the conflicts are strong. And flat teams have the better performance for completing tasks than the layered teams.

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KSS SESSION V  

1301 Peipei Liu, Tieju Ma Decision Support for the Diffusion of Alternative Energy Vehicles

1315 Jianli Gao, Lei Zhao, Qinghong Zhang Application of 3-D path planning ant colony algorithm in household inter-temporal uncertainty decision-making on life-cycle consumption

1319 Brian Hilton, Maris Farquaharson, George Kuk, Miao Wang The Cybernetics of Innovation and Knowledge: The Viable Systems Model Applied to the Silicon Valley Index and China

1327 Yuan Zhao, Shunfu Jin, Wuyi Yue Performance Evaluation of a Dynamic Channel Allocation Strategy with Access Threshold in CRNs

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1301 Decision Support for the Diffusion of Alternative Energy Vehicles

Peipei Liu †, Tieju Ma ‡ † School of Business, East China University of Science and Technology, China ‡ School of Business, East China University of Science and Technology [email protected] Keywords: agent based model, geographic information system, diffusion of new energy vehicles, technological learning Abstract:

The construction of the refueling stations has an important effect on the diffusion of alternative energy vehicles (AEVs). Due to the limited budget, government can't build widespread and intensive fuel-filling stations immediately. Thus, how to optimize the initial spatial distribution of fuel-filling stations becomes a realistic problem for promoting AEVs. In this context, this study builds a decision support system integrated agent based modeling (ABM) with geographic information system (GIS), and combined the data in the real world, such as city’s road system. This DSS can help decision makers to decide how to optimize the spatial distribution of the initial refueling stations. Furthermore, the study takes Shanghai as an example to use the DSS. In the end, we supply a tentative idea to make users as a part of systems design the spatial distribution of the initial refueling stations according to the real condition.

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1315 Application of 3-D path planning ant colony algorithm in household inter-temporal

uncertainty decision-making on life-cycle consumption

Jianli Gao1, Lei Zhao1, Qinghong Zhang2

1. School of Financial Management, Shanghai University of International Business and Economics 2. School of Economics and Management, Tongji University [email protected] Keywords: Inter-temporal, uncertainty, Ant Colony Algorithm Abstract:

Because of the broader research scope and increasing model complexity, it is not easy even impossible to get the analytical solution but the numerical approximate solution for household inter-temporal uncertainty decision-making on life-cycle consumption which has become a combinatorial optimization problem. This paper firstly introduces 3-D path planning ant colony algorithm into the household inter-temporal uncertainty decision on life-cycle consumption, in which the power utility function added with motive of wealth accumulating is selected as the household utility function, the 3-D information space of household decision-making is built based on different income situations and life-cycle characteristics, the rule of searching optimal path is created in accord with the real behavior of household decision-making, the simulating parameters are set up based on the economic environment around Shanghai households.At last, this paper gets 12 optimal paths of household life-cycle consumption under three income situations for four types of households with different decision-making characteristics through simulations. As results show, the simulation with 3-D path planning ant colony algorithm can describe the household life reality well, and for households under bigger income volatility, negative saving is more possible to happen to the households with higher risk aversion and lower wealth accumulation desire.

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1319 The Cybernetics of Innovation and Knowledge: The Viable Systems Model Applied

to the Silicon Valley Index and China

Brian Hilton†, Maris Farquaharson ‡, George Kuk*, Miao Wang** †Associate Professor in International Business Strategy, Nottingham University Business School China ‡Assistant Professor in Entrepreneurship and Innovation, Nottingham University Business School China *Associate Professor in Strategy and Information Systems, Nottingham University Business School U.K. **Research Assistant Fellow, Nottingham University Business School China {Brian. Hilton}@nottingham.edu.cn

Key Words: Cybernetics, Viable Systems Model, Silicon Valley Index, Chinese Innovative Potential Abstract:

This paper sets out to connect cybernetics, the theory of control, to general systems theory then illustrate the application of the result to the Silicon Valley Index and its use in a Chinese setting. It is based on a idea by Cook and von Sedwitz (2005) that suggests cybernetics is based on a ”rule of three” two interacting forces and a “cybernaut”, an oarsmen. The latter steers the interaction between these two forces. The systems literature is never so simple. While three elements are a system at its simplest such a system is not viable. Stafford Beer’s Viable Systems Model (VSM) argues that for viability one needs three levels of overlapping control, the tactical, operational and strategic. We then demonstrate the face value of this insight by showing how it applies to the Silicon Valley Index and how this in turn maybe applied to assist the focus of Chinese government policy towards stimulating China as an innovative society. We conclude with some observations on the utility of the Chinese data as now available.

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1327 Performance Evaluation of a Dynamic Channel Allocation Strategy with Access

Threshold in CRNs

Yuan Zhao†, Shunfu Jin†, Wuyi Yue‡ †College of Information Science and Engineering, Yanshan University, Qinhuangdao 066004, China ‡Department of Intelligence and Informatics, Konan University, Kobe 658-8501, Japan [email protected] Keywords: Cognitive radio networks, dynamic channel allocation strategy, access threshold, Markov chain. Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a novel dynamic channel allocation strategy with channel access threshold in cognitive radio networks (CRNs). For the purpose of evaluating the system performance, we build a pre-emptive queueing model. By employing the method of a Markov chain, we derive the performance measures in terms of the throughput and the average latency of the secondary users (SUs). Finally, we provide numerical results to show the influences of the channel access threshold on the system performance measures.

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KSS SESSION VI  

1302 Zi-jian Ni, Li-li Rong A Semantic Model for Disaster Plans of China - National Earthquake Plans as a Case Study

1306 Tingting Gao, Lili Rong Research on the life cycle cruve of emergency plan and revision strategy

1330 Honglei Ge A Bayesian Sequential Decision-making Model for Emergency Supply Distribution with Disaster Information Update from Uncertainty to Certainty

1326 Yu-Zhong Zhang, Cui-Xia Miao, Da-Wei Zhai Parallel-batch Scheduling with Rejection to Minimize the Total Weighted Completion Time

1329 Shunfu Jin, Wuyi Yue, Chao Meng Performance Evaluation of the Active DRX Mechanism in LTE Project with a Sleep-delay Strategy

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1302 A Semantic Model for Disaster Plans of China - National Earthquake Plans as a

Case Study

Ni Zi-jian†, Rong Li-li† †Institute of Systems Engineering, Dalian University of Technology [email protected] Keywords: Emergency Plans, Semantic Model, OWL, N-ary Relation Abstract:

In China, currently, more that 240 million emer-gency plans have been published. Most of them are written by paper. Because of the length and organization of these documents, the useful in-formation cannot easily be gotten from them. So a semantic model for plans is proposed in this article. With it, the responders can retrieval useful information from it.

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1306 Research on the life cycle cruve of emergency plan and revision strategy

Tingting Gao, Lili Rong Dalian University of Technology [email protected] Keywords: emergency plan, lifecycle, revision, effectiveness, preventive maintenance, dynamic management Abstract:

With changes of the factors that affect emergency plan’s life cycle curve in the process of emergency plan’s compilation, examination and approval, use and practice, revision, the effectiveness of plan will gradually reduce. It’s necessary to study the full life cycle of emergency plan in order to dynamically and pertinently manage the plan. Based on other areas’ study on the life cycle, from the analysis of the evolution of the factors that impact the plan life cycle, we proposed the revision strategies to control and prolong the life cycle of emergency plan, which theoretically explains the evolution of it.

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1330 A Bayesian Sequential Decision-making Model for Emergency Supply Distribution

with Disaster Information Update from Uncertainty to Certainty

Ge Honglei School of Management Ningbo Institute of Technology, Zhejiang University, Ningbo [email protected] Keywords: Emergency Supply Distribution, Disaster Information Updates, Bayesian Sequential Decision-making, Uncertainty Abstract:

After the occurrence of a natural disaster, the disaster information is often scattered, conflicting and uncertain. In relief program, it is vital to continuously observe and update disaster information so as to get more accurate information. In this situation, the determination of decision-making time is as important as the formulation of rescue decision scheme. So a Bayesian sequential decision model for emergency supply distribution problem in relief program is built to get the optimal decision-making time and the optimal rescue decision scheme at the same time, with the aim to get the minimum total loss of the affected point and the shortest response time. The solution procedures are designed. And the dynamic evolutionary process of disaster information from uncertainty to certainty and the dynamic decision-making scheme for emergency supply distribution are simulated.

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1326 Parallel-batch Scheduling with Rejection to Minimize the TotalWeighted

Completion Time

YuZhong Zhang, CuiXia Miao, DaWei Zhai School of Management Sciences, Qufu Normal University, School of Mathematical Sciences, Qufu Normal University, School of Physics and Engineering, Qufu Normal University National Development and Reform Commission, Beijing, 100000, P.R. China [email protected], [email protected] Keywords: Batch scheduling, Rejection, NPhard, Pseudo-polynomial time algorithm Abstract:

In this paper, we consider the parallel-batch scheduling with rejection. A job is either rejected with a certain penalty having to be paid, or accepted and processed in batches on a single machine. The objective is to minimize the total weighted completion time of the accepted jobs plus the total penalty of the rejected jobs. We show that the problem is NP-hard and present a pseudo-polynomial time dynamic programming algorithm.

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1329 Performance Evaluation of the Active DRX Mechanism in LTE Project with a

Sleep-delay Strategy

Shunfu Jin, Wuyi Yue, Chao Meng College of Information Science and Engineering Yanshan University, Qinhuangdao 066004, China Department of Intelligence and Informatics Konan University, Kobe 658-8501, Japan [email protected] Keywords: LTE, Active DRX, multiple channels, synchronization vacation, performance evaluation Abstract:

In order to evaluate the performance of the Active Discontinuous Reception (DRX) mechanism with a sleep-delay strategy in the Long Term Evolution (LTE) project, we build a multiple synchronization vacation queueing model with a wake-up and a sleep-delay. With the assumption that the sum of the time length of the sleep interval and the time length of the wake-up period is no greater than the number of channels, we derive the performance measures of the energy saving ratio and the system blocking ratio. Finally, we give numerical results to investigate the influence for the time length of the sleep delay timer on the system performance.

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ABOUT NINGBO 

Ningbo, also called “Yong” for short, is located in the middle of the coastal line of the Chinese Mainland and in the South of the Yangtze River Delta, which enjoys the most developed economy in China (120°55”-122°16”E and 28°51”-30°33”N). The Zhoushan Archipelago, as natural bulwark, is to the east of Ningbo, Hangzhou Bay to the north, the City of Shaoxing to the west, and the City of Taizhou to the south.

The history of Ningbo can be traced back to 7,000 years ago. The discovery of Hemudu Neolithic Culture Ruins proves that Ningbo was one of the first places in the world for cultivating rice. In Xia Dynasty (about 2,000 B.C.), Ningbo was called “Yin”. When it was in the Spring and Autumn Period (770-476 B.C.), Ningbo was a part of the State of “Yue”. The place then covered “Yin”, “Mao” and “Gouzhang”, which were three counties of Kuaiji Shire in Qin Dynasty (221-206 B.C.). The place was named “Mingzhou” in the Tang Dynasty (618-907 A.D.). In 821, the local authority moved to the place where three rivers joined and built a city wall, which marked the beginning of the city. In 1381, the 14th year of the period of the Emperor Hongwu in Ming Dynasty (1368-1644 A.D.), the city got its current name “Ningbo”, which means “the calm wave”.

At present, the City of Ningbo, with six districts of Haishu, Jiangdong, Jiangbei, Zhenhai, Beilun and Yinzhou, three county-level cities of Yuyao, Cixi and Fenghua, and two counties of Xiangshan and Ninghai, covers an area of 9817 sq. km on land. The total population is 5.7102 million in Ningbo. The urban area covers 2,462 sq. km, with the population of 2.2183 million.

The name of the city means “calm wave”, which shows the close relationship between the city and the water. Ningbo is a city of culture, and a port to the world. The city motto also suggests the secrets between Ningbo and the water. Water keeps watch on Tianyi Pavilion, the oldest library in Asia. With deep water and calm wave, Ningbo Port has been listed among the top ten ports in the world. Overlooking the city from the sky, you can see that Yao River, Fenghua River and Yong River divide the city into several parts, and have fostered local people generation by generation. Yao River brings us Hemudu Neolithic Culture 7000 years ago and the love story of Liang Shanbo and Zhu Yintai; Fenghua River comes from the county famous for Buddha Maitreya (Laughing Buddha) and tailors; The two rivers joint together in downtown of Ningbo and become Yong River, which is flowing into the sea and was the starting point of the “Silk Road on the Sea”. Those three rivers incubate prosperity of the city. The water in Ningbo emerges in various forms, from hot spring to water fall, from the lake to the sea, from the fountain street to the pond…They make Ningbo a city of great charm, a city not only being delicate and intelligential, but also have the daring to accept and to surmount.

Port is the largest resource of Ningbo and also the driving force for further development of the city. Depending on the large handling capacity of the deep-water port, Ningbo has actively accepted the transferred international industries, and built the national bases of energy and raw materials. The port industry has witnessed incessant growth in its size and strength. At present, a port industrial region with the extent of 20 km has been established in the hinterland of Beilun Port. In this industrial region, there exist hundreds of large intensive projects with 5 leading sections of petro-chemical, energy, iron and steel, paper making and ship building. Its output has covered more than one quarter of total industrial output of the city.

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ABOUT ISKSS 

The ISKSS is a non-profit, technical professional association, whose full name is the International Society for the Knowledge and Systems Sciences. It was formally established in the year of 2003 during the International Symposium on Knowledge and Systems Science (KSS'2003, Guangzhou, November 29-30, 2003). Now, ISKSS members spread over 10 countries and areas. ISKSS is one member organization of the International Federation for Systems Research.

The overall purpose of ISKSS is to promote development of knowledge science and systems science, as well as collaboration between both of two sciences. It further seeks to encourage research and facilitate communication between and among scientists and professionals from various disciplines and professions at local, regional, national, and international levels.

As we all know, we are moving into a new era of knowledge economy. In the past decade, the significance of developing knowledge has grown to a level where it is coming to dominate other socio-economic factors. The recent development challenges many of institutions to understand the nature of knowledge and its role in applications, to effectively utilize the knowledge for improving the corporate competitive advantage and national comprehensive power, as well as establishing development of knowledge sciences. The significant feature of development of knowledge sciences is the interdisciplinary program on an international scale. It is necessary to promote the exchange and interaction of knowledge across disciplines and borders to explore the new territories and new frontiers. In the present stage, attempts to strictly define the knowledge science may be too ambitious, but a very tolerant, broad-based and open minded approach to the discipline can be taken. Knowledge sciences and systems sciences can be used for one another as methodology and tool and benefit each other. Around these disciplines, we initiated and established ISKSS.

The 1st president of ISKSS is Professor Yoshiteru Nakamori, JAIST, who served 5 years (December of 2003 to November of 2008). Vice Presidents include J.F. Gu (China), M. Jackson (UK), K. Kijima (Japan), Z.T. Wang (China), A.P. Wiezbicki (Poland) and C.J. Zhao (China). The Secretary General is Professor Taketoshi Yoshida (Japan). Current president is Professor Shouyang Wang, CAS Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, served since December of 2008. Vice Presidents include J. Chen (Tsinghua University, China), Y. Z. Dang (Dalian University of Technology, China), K. Kijima (Tokyo Institute of Technology, Japan), W. B. Lee (The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, China) and M. Makowski (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis). Current Secretary General is Professor Xijin Tang who runs normal duties at ISKSS Beijing office within CAS Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science.

The KSS symposium is annual event of ISKSS, while the former is of longer history with KSS 2000 (JAIST), KSS2001 (Dalian), KSS2002 (Shanghai), KSS2003 (Guangzhou), KSS2004 (JAIST), KSS2005 (IIASA), KSS2006 (Beijing), KSS2007 (JAIST), KSS2008 (Guangzhou), KSS 2009 (Hong Kong), KSS2010 (Xi’an), KSS2011 (Hull) and KSS2012 (JAIST). The official journal of ISKSS, named International Journal of Knowledge and Systems Science, was re-launched by IGI Publishing since 2010. ISKSS contact information:

Email: [email protected] Phone: +86 10 62553291 Official Web site: http://www.iskss.org/

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ABOUT AMSS‐CAS 

The Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science (AMSS) in the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), founded in December 1998, was integrated with Institute of Mathematics (established in 1952), Institute of Applied Mathematics (established in 1979), Institute of Systems Science (established in 1979) and Institute of Computational Mathematics and Science/ Engineering Computing (established in 1995). Professor YANG Lo (CAS Fellow) was the first president of AMSS, and Professor GUO Lei (CAS Fellow) was the second president. Currently Professor WANG Yuefei and Professor XI Nanhua (CAS Fellow) are co-presidents.

AMSS is a national comprehensive academic research center of mathematics and systems science. The strategic objectives of AMSS are to make important, original and pivotal research results, and to bring up academic leads and talents in the field of mathematics and systems science, gearing the research to the international scientific frontiers and the national strategic demands. The target of AMSS is to make a great influential research center in the world, a famous training center for advanced researchers, and an important researching and consulting center for national economy and the construction of national defense issues in the field of Mathematics and Systems Science.

Besides the four institutes, AMSS possesses the State Key Laboratory of Scientific and Engineering Computing, Key Laboratory of Management, Decision and Information Systems of CAS, Key Laboratory of Systems and Control of CAS, Key Laboratory of Mathematics Mechanization of CAS, the Morningside Center of CAS, and the Center for Forecasting Science of CAS. AMSS has set up several new research centers based upon some intersecting disciplines in recent years. AMSS now has 15 Members of CAS, 2 Members of CAE (Chinese Academy of Engineering) and 5 Fellows of the Third World Academy of Sciences. There are graduate students, doctors and post-doctors, altogether about 400 in AMSS.

In the past years, the scientific personnel of the four institutes have made important contributions to the country's development of Chinese mathematics and systems science as well as contributions to national economy and national defense. They have won more than 400 scientific awards, including one National Top Science and Technology Prize (Wentsun Wu), 4 first level National Natural Science Awards and A number of important international awards. For some of its important research achievements in applied science, AMSS has been acknowledged by the central government leaders and relevant departments of application. This has proved the important role of mathematics in the national economy and defense.

AMSS has established exchange and cooperation relationship with many academic institutions abroad, and received more than 300 visitors both home and abroad each year. AMSS has a library with abundant collection in mathematics and systems science, up to more than 200,000 books, and an advanced system of computers and network.

The Chinese Mathematics Society, the Operations Research Society of China, and the Systems Engineering Society of China, etc. set up their offices in AMSS. AMSS sponsors 14 academic journals.

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ABOUT NIT‐ZJU 

Zhejiang University Ningbo Institute of Technology (ZJUNIT), was founded in June, 2001, with the approval of the China Ministry of Education and the Zhejiang Provincial Government. Under a cooperation agreement, NIT is funded by the Ningbo Municipal People's Government and administered by Zhejiang University (ZJU). NIT is a full-time undergraduate university established as a non-profit and independent legal entity.

Located in the Ningbo Higher Education Zone, the NIT campus covers an area of approximately 80 hectares. Total floor space exceeds 360,000 square meters, and gross investment totals 840 million RMB. NIT has well-equipped teaching and laboratory buildings and a main library with over 1 million books. Digital information resources are also available, including a fiber-optic network connection to the main campus of Zhejiang University in Hangzhou which gives NIT students direct access to its educational resources.

With the cultivation of talent as its guiding principle, NIT's top priority is the ongoing development of its undergraduate education programs, while simultaneously expanding its postgraduate, adult education, and further education programs. The Institute is currently comprised of nine schools, including the School of Economics & International Trade, School of Foreign Languages, School of Media & Design, School of Information Science & Engineering, School of Biological & Chemical Engineering, School of Mechanical, Electrical and Energy Engineering, School of Civil & Architectural Engineering, and the School of Law & Management. Overall, 35 specialty programs are being offered to the over 11,000 enrolled students from 12 provinces in China.

Diplomas are bestowed on qualified students upon completion of a four-year study program. In addition, NIT awards bachelor's degrees to students who meet the specific program requirements. Students who demonstrate outstanding ability during their freshman year may be allowed to transfer to Zhejiang University to pursue the next three years of their major program. Over the past 8 years, the comprehensive quality of more than 20,000 NIT graduates has been fully recognized by society. Part-time students can enroll in programs that provide an education equivalent to the undergraduate or junior-college level, as well as several non-degree courses offered by the School of Adult Education and the School of Continuing Education. The School of Manager Training, jointly established by NIT and the Ningbo Municipal Organization Department, provides advanced workshops for executives from public and private enterprises and a wide range of courses for the continuing development of senior management talent.

NIT gives high priority to key academic disciplines in fields such as engineering as part of a coordinated multi-disciplinary system which includes specialty studies in science, literature, law, economics, and management. On the provincial level, NIT boasts three key disciplines, one key specialty, and one key laboratory. On the municipal level, there are four key disciplines, five key specialties, and three key laboratories. As a participant in the construction of a service platform for promoting technological innovation, NIT is helping to foster the municipal base of application-oriented, bio-medical personnel through its support of the Ningbo branch of the Zhejiang University Post-Doctoral Research Center.

NIT actively collaborates with the Ningbo local government and a variety of enterprises in the development of 61 research institutions in key areas, 14 of which operate at the municipal level. NIT was accorded the great honor of being awarded research grants from the NSCF (Natural Science Foundation of China) and the National Philosophy and Social Science Foundation. In 2011 alone, research grants for scientific research in NIT-supported programs totaled 62.46 million RMB.

NIT's sophisticated faculty includes 43% full-time teachers at the associate professor level or above, and 36% of faculty members hold doctorate degrees. NIT's leaders and most of its middle management staff are appointed by Zhejiang University, while its consultative committee and specialty steering committee are comprised of professors, experts and executives from ZJU, government departments, and celebrated enterprises. A considerable number of

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seasoned full professors and associate professors from ZJU teach major courses at NIT and provide instruction and guidance on graduation strategies and thesis work. Over 70 renowned scholars associated with the Academicians of Chinese Academy of Sciences serve as honorary professors and adjunct professors at NIT together with more than 100 graduate tutors and 27 doctoral-level supervisors. With the support of Zhejiang University, NIT endeavors to foster its postgraduate program, which enables over 200 doctoral candidates and master's students to conduct studies and research.

NIT has established in-depth programs of international exchange and friendly cooperation with universities in America, the UK, Australia, Singapore, South Korea, France and Canada, and in several other countries and special administrative regions including Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan. In addition to its successful Sino-US Joint Program with the University of Indianapolis, NIT has launched two Sino-UK Joint Programs – one with Queen's University and the other with the University of Worcester.

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HOW TO GET TO THE CONFERENCE SITE 

KSS2013 will be held at the campus of Zhejiang University Ningbo Institute of Technology (NIT-ZJU). Here we just say how to reach NIT-ZJU.

◆From Hangzhou - Ningbo Expressway

Exit at Dazhujia and then drive south about 3 kilos to reach NIT-ZJU campus.

◆From Ningbo Lishe Airport

Take a taxi to reach to NIT-ZJU campus, about 30 minutes, RMB 40 yuan.

◆From Yongtaiwen ( Ningbo - Taizhou - Wenzhou ) Expressway

Exit at Panhuo and drive along North Qianhu Road about 3 km.

◆ From East Railway Station

Take a No. 21 bus to reach NIT-ZJU campus, or take a taxi to reach to NIT-ZJU campus, by about 20 minutes and RMB 25 yuan.

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LOCATION MAP 

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