Kim Eng Research (14042011)

SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS

Co. Reg No: 198700034E

MICA (P) : 090/11/2009

THE REAL DEALS Ins & Outs of Singapore Real Estate

Race to the top In 2007, before the property market peaked, Farrer Court was sold for $1.3b and Leedon Heights, $840m.

The former became the first en bloc deal in Singapore to cross the $1b mark, making it the largest, while

the latter was the second largest. As the collective sale market revives and tries to outdo itself, two eye-

catching deals have appeared. They are Pine Grove in Ulu Pandan and Pearlbank Apartments in Outram. In

terms of value, Pine Grove is at the top with owners asking for a record $1.7b, excluding the development

premium that will be needed to top up the site’s lease to 99 years. As a comparison, this amount is

equivalent to the total sales value of last year’s 34 en bloc deals put together. Pearlbank Apartments, on

the other hand, has a reserve price of $750m, or $1,495psf including an estimated development charge of

$167.2m.

Pine Grove sits on 893,000 sq ft of land and has a gross plot ratio of 2.1. If the deal eventuates, it will cost

the developer a cool $2.2b, or $907 psf ppr. We estimate the breakeven to be around $1,630 psf, 5%

above the average prices achieved in 1Q11 by The Trizon, a freehold project by UIC that is currently being

built. The Trizon was launched in 2009 and still has 77 units unsold. To justify the deal, the Pine Grove’s

developer may have to sell at close to $1,900 psf, which will be a new benchmark for the area. The closest

comparable, the 99-year Quinterra, that was completed in 2009, saw a unit transacted at $1,175 psf last

month. Supply-wise, there are about 3,300 units in the immediate vicinity. We take a look at their prices.

LPine Grove and neighbours in Ulu Pandan

Note: Projects are freehold unless otherwise stated. Source: www.onemap.sg, URA

Pine Grove (99-yr)

Latest: $1,021 psf

Pandan Valley

Latest: $950 psf

The Trizon

Latest: $1,778 psf

Quinterra (99-yr)

Latest: $1,175 psf

Cavendish Park (99-yr)

Latest: $990 psf

The Marbella

Latest: $1,548 psf

Ridgewood (999-yr)

Latest: $1,358 psf

2

PINE GROVE The Real Deals 14 Apr 2011

Analyst: OOI Yi Tung 65-6433 5712 [email protected]

Primary market prices of residential projects near Pine Grove

Source: URA

Prices and take-up rates based on developers’ sales data

Source: URA

Date

Units

sold in

month

Lowest

(psf)

Highest

(psf)

Median

(psf) Date

Units

sold in

month

Lowest

(psf)

Highest

(psf)

Median

(psf)

Feb-11 2 $1,680 $1,853 $1,767 Apr-10 17 $957 $1,578 $1,394

Jan-11 1 $1,636 $1,636 $1,636 Mar-10 5 $1,310 $1,590 $1,478

Dec-10 4 $1,496 $1,582 $1,531 Feb-10 4 $1,350 $1,460 $1,419

Nov-10 6 $1,492 $1,675 $1,586 Jan-10 6 $1,280 $1,530 $1,423

Oct-10 1 $1,546 $1,546 $1,546 Dec-09 0 $0 $0 $0

Sep-10 2 $1,511 $1,627 $1,569 Nov-09 4 $1,394 $1,520 $1,440

Aug-10 10 $1,106 $1,547 $1,367 Oct-09 3 $1,352 $1,523 $1,396

Jul-10 15 $1,356 $1,608 $1,487 Sep-09 25 $932 $1,500 $1,362

Jun-10 5 $1,436 $1,605 $1,475 Aug-09 99 $920 $1,570 $1,367

May-10 3 $1,332 $1,393 $1,383 Source: URA

Primary market prices have been dominated by The Trizon, the only recent development in the

area. The freehold, 24-storey project by UIC was first launched in September 2009. It comprises 289

units with the smallest apartments, two-bedders of about 1,000 sq ft in size, selling at $1.3-1.6m

each. There are also 11 duplex penthouses. A penthouse unit that is over 7,000 sq ft was sold for

$6.6m in September 2009. The highest price achieved thus far is $1,853 psf, according to sales data

submitted by the developer to the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA).

3

PINE GROVE The Real Deals 14 Apr 2011


Secondary market prices of residential projects near Pine Grove in the past 12 months

Source: URA

TOP Project Units Tenure

No. of

transactions

Lowest

(psf)

Average

(psf)

Highest

(psf)

1978 Pandan Valley 605 Freehold 31 $659 $901 $1,108

1981 Ridgewood 425 999-yr from 1885 10 $864 $1,154 $1,358

1983 Village Tower 46 Freehold 1 $1,189 $1,189 $1,189

1984 Beaverton Court 54 Freehold 3 $846 $1,136 $1,345

1984 Pine Grove 660 99-yr from 1984 22 $715 $826 $1,021

1985 Fontana Heights 52 Freehold 1 $1,417 $1,417 $1,417

1985 Leighwoods 23 Freehold 1 $1,082 $1,082 $1,082

1995 Astor Green 170 99-yr from 1991 19 $840 $919 $1,034

1996 Cavendish Park 254 99-yr from 1991 34 $864 $947 $1,059

1998 The Sierra 60 947-yr from 1937 6 $1,072 $1,136 $1,229

2004 The Serenade @ Holland 89 99-yr from 2001 15 $844 $1,031 $1,102

2005 The Marbella 239 Freehold 9 $1,085 $1,346 $1,548

2008 Montview 115 Freehold 8 $1,261 $1,336 $1,440

2009 Quinterra 55 99-yr from 2006 2 $1,175 $1,175 $1,175

2013^ The Trizon 289 Freehold 2 $1,219 $1,225 $1,230

Overall 3,316 172 $659 $1,017 $1,548 ^Expected TOP. Source: URA

In the surrounding area, freehold units are available. Pandan Valley makes up a large proportion of

the freehold supply with over 600 units. The project has been around for over 30 years. There has

been talk in the market that Pandan Valley is likely to be the next en bloc candidate in Ulu Pandan.

This year, the project saw 5 transactions so far, average at $1,000psf.

4

MARKET SNAPSHOT The Real Deals 14 Apr 2011


Upcoming VVIP Launches

TwentyOne Angullia Park (District 9) A 54-unit freehold development to be

developed by China Sonangol Land on the site

of what was previously The Parisian.

*Shhh... if you have not yet been invited, you are

probably not a VVIP. Wait for the public launch.

ASP of freehold units in Ulu Pandan

Period

Lowest

($psf)

Average

($psf)

Highest

($psf)

Mar-11 $1,216 $1,497 $1,778

Feb-11 $950 $1,331 $1,636

Jan-11 $911 $1,227 $1,581

Dec-10 $680 $1,258 $1,675

Nov-10 $973 $1,300 $1,492

Oct-10 $717 $1,140 $1,627

Sep-10 $1,409 $1,412 $1,414

Aug-10 $659 $1,360 $1,608

-Jul-10 $891 $1,261 $1,475

Jun-10 $927 $1,292 $1,514

May-10 $809 $1,245 $1,548

Apr-10 $824 $1,183 $1,578

Mar-10 $800 $1,219 $1,590

Feb-10 $827 $1,281 $1,530

Jan-10 $654 $1,085 $1,501

Dec-09 $797 $1,182 $1,520

Nov-09 $1,290 $1,421 $1,523

Oct-09 $616 $1,241 $1,500

Sep-09 $567 $1,318 $1,570

Aug-09 $606 $969 $1,327

Jul-09 $525 $923 $1,319

Jun-09 $524 $879 $1,132

May-09 $640 $819 $1,147

Apr-09 $647 $808 $968 Source: URA

Property Stocks Name RNAV Price Disc/Premium

Allgreen N.A. 1.13 N.A.

CapitaLand 4.3 3.41 -21%

City Dev 13.3 11.66 -12%

Ho Bee 2.87 1.45 -49%

HPL 4.28 2.49 -42%

Keppel Land 5.36 4.44 -17%

SingLand 10.3 7.13 -31%

UOL N.A. 5 N.A.

Wheelock N.A. 1.87 N.A.

Wing Tai 2.83 1.6 -43%

N.A. = No Coverage

Property Price Indices

Index Level Change

SRPI Overall (Feb 11) 159.5 -0.4%

RESI Composite (4Q10) 5.7 +0.9

URA PPI (1Q11) 198.8 +2.1%

HDB Resale (1Q11) 174.8 +1.6%

Government Land Sales (GLS)

Recently Awarded Sites

Bishan Street 14 (58.8k sqm, 650 units) Awarded

to CapitaLand for $550.1m ($869 psf ppr)

Bedok Reservoir / Bedok North Road (63.9k sqm,

640 units) Awarded to UOL and SingLand for

$320m ($465.4 psf ppr)

Sengkang Square / Compassvale Road (47.8k

sqm, 530 units) Awarded to Keppel Land for

$286.8m ($501.7 psf ppr)

Choa Chu Kang Dr, EC (44.3k sqm, 490 units)

Top bid of $170.1m ($320.9 psf ppr) from CDL

Bartley Rd / Lor How Sun (61.9k sqm, 560 units)

Awarded to Hong Leong, CDL and TID for $413.3m

($620.6 psf ppr)

Bendemeer Rd / Whampoa East (65.2k sqm,780

units) Awarded to United Engineers for $543m

($774.1 psf ppr)

Confirmed List (Recently Open for Tender)

Tampines Central 7, EC (66k sqm, 660 units)

Tender closing on 14 April

Hillview Avenue (40k sqm, 370 units) Tender

closing on 28 April

Jalan Loyang Besar (56.6k sqm, 580 units) Tender

closing on 10 May

Sembawang Road / Jalan Sendudok (38.7k sqm,

390 units) Tender closing on 26 May

Buangkok Drive / Sengkang East Drive (58.6k

sqm, 550 units) Tender closing on 2 June

Reserve List (Recently Open for Tender)

Jalan Jurong Kechil (14.2k sqm, 240 units)

Buangkok Dr / Sengkang Central (55k sqm, 495

units)

Tanah Merah Kechil Rd (39.2k sqm, 470 units)

Alexandra Rd (48.8k sqm, 490 units)

Stirling Road (44.5k sqm, 445 units)

Stirling Road B (44.1 sqm, 445 units)

Elias Rd / Pasir Ris Dr 3 (32.7k sqm, 295 units)

Sengkang Square (64.4k sqm, 710 units) Source: HDB, URA

5

DEVELOPER’S LANDBANK The Real Deals 14 Apr 2011


Developer District Landbank Tenure

Unsold

Units

City Dev

6 South Beach (Beach Road) 99 119

9 Futura (Leonie Road) Freehold 122

10 Boulevard Hotel (Cuscaden Road) Freehold 203

10 Lucky Tower (Grange Road) Freehold 178

11 Buckley Mansion/9 Buckley Rd (Buckley Road) Freehold 64

17 Flora Road GLS (Flora Road) 99 390

18 NV Residences (Pasir Ris) 99 147

18 Pasir Ris Grove (Pasir Ris) 99 752

18 Pasir Ris Drive 8 (Pasir Ris) 999 1,517

18 Tampines/Upp Changi Rd North Freehold 605

19 H2O Residences (Sengkang West Ave) 99 371

19 Bartley Road GLS (Bartley Road) 99 560

23 Choa Chu kang GLS (EC) (Choa Chu Kang Drive) 99 490

23 Segar Road GLS (EC) (Segar Road) 99 570

Sentosa Residences at W (Sentosa Cove) 99 207

Total Unsold Units 6,294

KepLand 01 Marina Bay Suites (Marina Bay) 99 84

02 Keppel & GE Towers site (Tanjong Pagar) Freehold 620

04 Reflections at Keppel Bay (Keppel Bay) 99 349

04 Keppel Bay Plot 3 (Keppel Bay) 99 307



19 Sengkang GLS site (Sengkang Square) 99 530

22 The Lakeside Residences (Lakeside Drive) 99 146


CapitaLand

3 The Interlace (Gillman Heights) 99 422

9 Urban Resort (Cairnhill Rd) Freehold 50

10 D’leedon (Farrer Rd) 99 1,452

10 The Nassim (Nassim Rd) Freehold 55

16 Bedok Town Centre Site (Bedok Central) 99 469

20 Bishan GLS site (Bishan Street 14) 99 650

26 Yio Chu Kang site (Yio Chu Kang Rd) Freehold 140


Ho Bee Sentosa Seascape at Sentosa Cove (Sentosa Cove) 99 114

Sentosa Pinnacle at Sentosa Cove (Sentosa Cove) 99 357

Total Unsold Units 471

UOL 2 Spottiswoode Residences (Spottiswoode Park) Freehold 60

16 Bedok Reservoir (Bedok Reservoir Rd) 99 640


Allgreen 2 Skysuites @ Anson (Enggor Street) 99 360

5 Project at West Coast Rd (West Coast Road) Freehold 80

9 RV Residences (River Valley) 999 248

12 RiverBay (Mar Thoma Rd) 999 147

12 Riviera 38 (Mar Thoma Rd) 999 102

21 The Cascadia (Bukit Timah Road) Freehold 109


Wheelock 9 Scotts Square (Scotts Road) Freehold 99

10 Ardmore 3 (Ardmore Park) Freehold 84


6

DEVELOPER’S LANDBANK (cont’d) The Real Deals 14 Apr 2011


Developer District Landbank Tenure

Unsold

Units

Guocoland 10 Leedon Residence (Leedon Heights) 99 261

26 The Waterline (Yio Chu Kang Rd) Freehold 64


Bt Sembawang

09 The Vermont on Cairnhill (Cairnhill Rd) Freehold 71

09 Paterson Suites (Paterson Rd) Freehold 34

09 St Thomas Walk (St Thomas Walk) Freehold 221


Frasers Centrepoint

9 StarHub Centre 99 240

15 Flamingo Valley (Siglap Rd) Freehold 312

16 Waterfront Gold (Bedok Reservoir Rd) 99 86

16 Waterfront Isle (Bedok Reservoir Rd) 99 191

18 Pasir Ris GLS (Pasir Ris Drive 3) 99 436

19 Upper Serangoon GLS site 99 472

19 Esparina Residences (Sengkang) 99 44

19 Punggol GLS site (Punggol Central) 99 685

27 Yishun Ave 2 GLS (Yishun Ave 2) 99 667


Wing Tai

3 Ascentia Sky (Redhill) 99 103

9 HELIOS Residence (Cairnhill Circle) Freehold 69

9 Belle Vue Residences (Oxley Walk) Freehold 48

10 Le Nouvel Ardmore (Ardmore Park) Freehold 43

10 Anderson 18 (Ardmore Park) Freehold 157

11 L'VIV (Newton Rd) Freehold 46

23 Petir Road GLS (Petir Road) 99 470


MCL Land

10 NOB Hill (Ewe Boon Rd) Freehold 70

15 Casa Nassau (East Coast Rd) Freehold 65

19 Hougang Ave 2 GLS (Hougang Ave 2) 99 500


SC Global

9 The Marq (Paterson Hill) Freehold 39

9 Hilltops (Cairnhill Circle) Freehold 210

9 Martin No. 38 (Martin Rd) Freehold 35

10 The Ardmore (Ardmore Road) Freehold 50

Sentosa Seven Palms (Sentosa Cove) 99 32


Grand Total 20,017

Source: HDB, URA

6

SINGAPORE DISTRICT MAP The Real Deals 14 Apr 2011


01 Boat Quay, Chinatown, Havelock Road, Marina Square, Raffles Place, Suntec City

02 Anson Road, Chinatown, Neil Road, Raffles Place, Shenton Way, Tanjong Pagar

03 Alexandra Road, Tiong Bahru, Queenstown

04 Keppel, Mount Faber, Sentosa, Telok Blangah

05 Buona Vista, Dover, Pasir Panjang, West Coast

06 City Hall, High Street, North Bridge Road

07 Beach Road, Bencoolen Road, Bugis, Rochor

08 Little India, Farrer Park, Serangoon Road

09 Cairnhill, Killiney, Leonie Hill, Orchard, Oxley

10 Balmoral, Bukit Timah, Grange Road, Holland, Orchard Boulevard, River Valley, Tanglin Road

11 Chancery, Bukit Timah, Dunearn Road, Newton

12 Balestier, Moulmein, Novena, Toa Payoh

13 Potong Pasir, Macpherson

14 Eunos, Geylang, Kembangan, Paya Lebar

15 Katong, Marine Parade, Siglap, Tanjong Rhu

16 Bayshore, Bedok, Chai Chee

17 Changi, Loyang, Pasir Ris

18 Pasir Ris, Simei, Tampines

19 Hougang, Punggol, Sengkang

20 Ang Mo Kio, Bishan, Braddell Road, Thomson

21 Clementi, Upper Bukit Timah, Hume Avenue

22 Boon Lay, Jurong, Tuas

23 Bukit Batok, Choa Chu Kang, Hillview Avenue, Upper Bukit Timah

24 Kranji, Lim Chu Kang, Sungei Gedong, Tengah

25 Admiralty, Woodlands

26 Tagore, Yio Chu Kang

27 Admiralty, Sembawang, Yishun

28 Seletar, Yio Chu Kang

Source: expats2singapore.com

The Real Deals 14 April 2011

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AND

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The Real Deals 14 April 2011

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