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Francisco Marmolejo
6/12/2014
1
http://www.worldbnk.org/education/tertiary
Twitter: @fmarmole
From Vision to ActionA Regional Event. 12-13 June, 2014
Tunis, Tunisia
Francisco MarmolejoTertiary Education CoordinatorThe World [email protected]
@fmarmole
@fmarmole Email: [email protected]
Francisco Marmolejo
6/12/2014
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http://www.worldbnk.org/education/tertiary
Twitter: @fmarmole
Francisco Marmolejo
6/12/2014
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http://www.worldbnk.org/education/tertiary
Twitter: @fmarmole
Francisco Marmolejo
6/12/2014
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http://www.worldbnk.org/education/tertiary
Twitter: @fmarmole
Francisco Marmolejo
6/12/2014
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http://www.worldbnk.org/education/tertiary
Twitter: @fmarmole
Francisco Marmolejo
6/12/2014
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http://www.worldbnk.org/education/tertiary
Twitter: @fmarmole
Francisco Marmolejo
6/12/2014
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http://www.worldbnk.org/education/tertiary
Twitter: @fmarmole
It is all relative…
Our beautiful planet in reality is no more than a speck of dust in the universe.
Marco Caceres. Space Analyst
@fmarmole Email: @[email protected]
Francisco Marmolejo
6/12/2014
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http://www.worldbnk.org/education/tertiary
Twitter: @fmarmole
“When I think about
the future… I become
scared of the present”
ALBERT EINSTEIN
I never think of the future…
…It comes soon enough
Francisco Marmolejo
6/12/2014
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http://www.worldbnk.org/education/tertiary
Twitter: @fmarmole
20141976 20252025
2040
Francisco Marmolejo
6/12/2014
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http://www.worldbnk.org/education/tertiary
Twitter: @fmarmole
RANK COUNTRY 1950 COUNTRY 2000 COUNTRY 2050
1 China 554.8 China 1,275.2 India 1,531.4
2 India 357.6 India 1,016.9 China 1,395.2
3 USA. 157.8 USA 285.0 USA 408.7
4 Russian Federation 102.7 Indonesia 211.6 Pakistan 348.7
5 Japan 83.6 Brazil 171.8 Indonesia 293.8
6 Indonesia 79.5 Russia 145.6 Nigeria 258.5
7 Germany 68.4 Pakistan 142.7 Bangladesh 254.6
8 Brazil 54.0 Bangladesh 138.0 Brazil 233.1
9 Great Britan 49.8 Japan 127.0 Ethiopia 171.0
10 Italy 47.1 Nigeria 114.7 DR Congo 151.6
11 France 41.8 Mexico 98.9 Mexico 140.2
12 Bangladesh 41.8 Germany 82.3 Egypt 127.4
13 Ukraine 37.3 Philipines 75.7 Vietnam 117.7
14 Nigeria 29.8 Turkey 68.3 Japan 109.7
15 Spain 28.0 Egypt 67.8 Iran 105.5
16 Mexico 27.7 Iran 66.4 Uganda 103.2
Fuente: ONU (2004). World Population to 2300.
World’s most populated countries. 1950-2050
Francisco Marmolejo
6/12/2014
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http://www.worldbnk.org/education/tertiary
Twitter: @fmarmole
1.16
1.18
8.2
4.75
0 2 4 6 8 10
Developed
countries
Developing
countries
1998
2050
Source: UN 1998 World Population Report
Source: United Nations Population Division (2010), World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision
Japan 2050: 70 65+ yr. old persons per 100 persons aged 15-65 yr.
Francisco Marmolejo
6/12/2014
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http://www.worldbnk.org/education/tertiary
Twitter: @fmarmole
Nearly a half of the MENA population is under twenty
Source: Richards, A Political Economy of the Middle East, 2008
10 %
1910
50 %
2007
75 %
2050
WORLD POPULATION LIVING IN CITIES
Francisco Marmolejo
6/12/2014
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http://www.worldbnk.org/education/tertiary
Twitter: @fmarmole
The annual urban population growth rate of the
world’s poorest countries is about 7 times the
urban growth rate in the world’s wealthiest
countries
Source: Ricky Burdett and Deyan Sudjic, eds., The Endless City: The Urban Age Project.
London: Phaidon.
By 2030, developing countries will account for
about 80 percent of the world’s total urban
population.
Francisco Marmolejo
6/12/2014
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http://www.worldbnk.org/education/tertiary
Twitter: @fmarmole
In Norway the average income per capita is $ 149.00 dollars per day, while in Malawi is only $500.00 but per year ($ 1.36 per day).
In other words, three days of average income in Norway are equivalent to almost a year of income in Malawi
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
High Income Countries
South Asia
North Africa and Middle East
East and Pacific Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
Latin America and the Caribbean
Source: Luis F. Lopez-Calva y N. Lusing0: Equity of Total Income
1: Inequity of Total Income
Francisco Marmolejo
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Twitter: @fmarmole
Francisco Marmolejo
6/12/2014
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Twitter: @fmarmole
Dominique Moisi.
Geopolitics of Emotions (2009)
Francisco Marmolejo
6/12/2014
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Twitter: @fmarmole
Net Migration (in millions of people). 1960-2010
Source: World Bank (2012). World Databank: Net Migration
Francisco Marmolejo
6/12/2014
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http://www.worldbnk.org/education/tertiary
Twitter: @fmarmole
.
1975 1980 1990 1995 2000 2004 2006 2008
More than 3.3 million studentsabroad. It is forecasted that by 2020 therewill be 7 million internationalstudents.
Source: OECD and UNESCO Institute for Statistics (for data on non-OECD countries and up to 1995).
Francisco Marmolejo
6/12/2014
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http://www.worldbnk.org/education/tertiary
Twitter: @fmarmole
� There are more than 5,000 ethnic groups in the world and only 190 countries.
� In the Sub-Sahara region exist 1,300 linguistic groups in only 62 countries
Source: Rodger Doyle. Ethnic groups in the world. Scientific American. Sep. 1998.
Tribalism and modernity
Francisco Marmolejo
6/12/2014
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http://www.worldbnk.org/education/tertiary
Twitter: @fmarmole
Steve Breen. The San Diego Union-Tribune
Francisco Marmolejo
6/12/2014
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http://www.worldbnk.org/education/tertiary
Twitter: @fmarmole
20141968 2025
Francisco Marmolejo
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http://www.worldbnk.org/education/tertiary
Twitter: @fmarmole
Francisco Marmolejo
6/12/2014
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Twitter: @fmarmole
Source: ITU, 1999
0
20
40
60
80
TelephoneRadio
P.C.T.V.
WWW
Telephone Radio P.C. T.V. WWW
74 38 16 13 4
� Nigeria: 95 million
� Brazil: 240 million
� China: Almost 1 billion.
… At some point this year there will be more mobile devices on the
planet than humans. So that’ll be about 7 billion then.
… Cisco predicts that by 2016 there will be more than 10 billion mobile-
connected devices among an expected world population of some 7.3 billion people.
Source: Digital Trends. 2012. http://www.digitaltrends.com/mobile/mobile-devices-to-
outnumber-people-on-planet-this-year/
Francisco Marmolejo
6/12/2014
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http://www.worldbnk.org/education/tertiary
Twitter: @fmarmole
Francisco Marmolejo [email protected]
Francisco Marmolejo
6/12/2014
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http://www.worldbnk.org/education/tertiary
Twitter: @fmarmole
Francisco Marmolejo
6/12/2014
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http://www.worldbnk.org/education/tertiary
Twitter: @fmarmole
Francisco Marmolejo
6/12/2014
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Twitter: @fmarmole
Francisco Marmolejo
6/12/2014
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http://www.worldbnk.org/education/tertiary
Twitter: @fmarmole
Average rate of return to year of
schooling is 10.4%
Based on comparable estimates of 545 observations, 131 economies, 1970-2011
In Latest year available: average rate of return is 9.9%
0.0
5.1
.15
.2D
en
sity
0 5 10 15 20Rate of return
Source: Montenegro, C.E. & H.A. Patrinos (2013). Returns to Schooling around the World. The World Bank
Francisco Marmolejo
6/12/2014
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Twitter: @fmarmole
Table 3: Returns to schooling by educational level and region
(latest available year between 2000-2011)
Region Primary Secondary Tertiary GDP/pc
(PPP 2005)
N
World 10.3 6.9 16.8 6,719 74
Middle East and North Africa 9.4 3.5 8.9 3,645 7
South Asia 9.6 6.3 18.4 2,626 4
Eastern and Central Europe 8.3 4.0 10.1 6,630 7
High Income Economies 4.8 5.3 11.0 31,748 6
East Asia and Pacific 11.0 6.3 15.4 5,980 6
Latin America and Caribbean 9.3 6.6 17.6 7,269 20
Sub-Saharan Africa 13.4 10.8 21.9 2,531 24
Returns highest at Tertiary Level
Source: Montenegro, C.E. & H.A. Patrinos (2013). Returns to Schooling around the World. The World Bank
Francisco Marmolejo
6/12/2014
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Twitter: @fmarmole
Principal factor of social mobility
More educationleads to:
Francisco Marmolejo
6/12/2014
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Twitter: @fmarmole
����Massification
����Still asymmetrical access / retention/ graduation
���� Increasing international student mobility
���� Revolution in teaching, learning and curriculum
����Quality assurance, accountability and qualification frameworks
���� Financing higher education
����The private providers’ revolution
����The academic profession
����The research environment
���� Information and communications technology
International trends in higher education
Francisco Marmolejo
6/12/2014
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http://www.worldbnk.org/education/tertiary
Twitter: @fmarmole
Biases towards universities as the only tertiary education option persist.
Pathways allowing mobility between technical and vocational institutions and universities are also very limited, if they exist at all.
Quality control and assurance regulations and mechanism are weak
Equity: Clear disparities in access across groups persist.
Limited efficiency
Insufficient investment in tertiary education.
Information: Policy and investment decisions are often based on inaccurate, biased, or incomplete information.
Lack of knowledge of job market needs prevents institutions from transparently sharing information about employability, demanded skills, and costs with students.
Francisco Marmolejo
6/12/2014
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http://www.worldbnk.org/education/tertiary
Twitter: @fmarmole
More than ever more people are having access to higher education …
Francisco Marmolejo
6/12/2014
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Twitter: @fmarmole
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
SSA South and
West Asia
Middle East
& N. Africa
Central Asia East Asia and
the Pacific
World Latin
America andthe
Caribbean
Central and
EasternEurope
North
America andWestern
Europe
1998 2005 2010
Courtesy of P. Materu. The World Bank
4.9 %
58 %
Mexico (2012): Percentage of 19-23 yr. old students
attending tertiary education institutions
per Income Level
Source: Tuiran, R. 2012. CONAHEC Conference. Puebla
Francisco Marmolejo
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http://www.worldbnk.org/education/tertiary
Twitter: @fmarmole
Implications of the global growth in TE
Francisco Marmolejo
6/12/2014
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http://www.worldbnk.org/education/tertiary
Twitter: @fmarmole
Challenging the traditional accreditation
& certificationmechanisms
Francisco Marmolejo
6/12/2014
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http://www.worldbnk.org/education/tertiary
Twitter: @fmarmole
Francisco Marmolejo
6/12/2014
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http://www.worldbnk.org/education/tertiary
Twitter: @fmarmole
A new type of
students
¿Sequential? Multi-task?
Francisco Marmolejo
6/12/2014
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http://www.worldbnk.org/education/tertiary
Twitter: @fmarmole
I have a netbook, MP3
Players, flashdrive, IPAD…
Dad, what did you use in
school when you were
student?
My brain!!
Francisco Marmolejo
6/12/2014
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http://www.worldbnk.org/education/tertiary
Twitter: @fmarmole
� Define what a circle is:It is a line connected by two ends making a round figure.
� What is Trigonometry?:Device used to measure trigonometers.
GEOMETRY
� What are the movements of the heart?:� The heart is always in movement. It doesn’t move in the case of corpses only.
�
� Brain:
Ideas, after being spoken, go straight to the brain.
THE HUMAN BODY
Francisco Marmolejo
6/12/2014
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http://www.worldbnk.org/education/tertiary
Twitter: @fmarmole
Gajaraj Dhanarajan
@fmarmole Email: @[email protected]
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6/12/2014
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Twitter: @fmarmole
@fmarmole Email: @[email protected]
86
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Twitter: @fmarmole
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Francisco Marmolejo
6/12/2014
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Twitter: @fmarmole
Source: World Development Report 2013
72 % de educadores
58 % de empleadores
NO
SI
Fuente: Mourshed, Farrell, y Barton (2012), Education to Employment: Designing a System that Works.
Hipótesis: el mercado laboral demanda unacombinacion de habilidades diferentes que las que
provee el sistema educativo
Francisco Marmolejo
6/12/2014
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http://www.worldbnk.org/education/tertiary
Twitter: @fmarmole
Francisco Marmolejo
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Twitter: @fmarmole
Francisco Marmolejo
6/12/2014
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http://www.worldbnk.org/education/tertiary
Twitter: @fmarmole
“Universities won’t survive…higher education is in deep crisis…The college campus won’t survive as a residential institution. Today’s [college] buildings are hopelessly unsuited and totally unneeded”
Peter Drucker, 1997
…or it is just an exageration?
Elliot Masie, President - The MasieCenter
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6/12/2014
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Twitter: @fmarmole
“While the ship is sinking –says the captain – the first
priority is to save the crew, next is to avoid
problems while the ship continues to sink, the third
priority is to repair the ship, and lastly, the fourth
priority, if time permits, is to save the passengers”
Arthur Levine, president of Columbia Teachers College
Francisco Marmolejo
6/12/2014
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http://www.worldbnk.org/education/tertiary
Twitter: @fmarmole
Continuing doing the
sme, but waiting
different results
Francisco Marmolejo
6/12/2014
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http://www.worldbnk.org/education/tertiary
Twitter: @fmarmole
Further develop a self- evaluation of institutional capacity to respond to regional needs
Revisit institutional mission to become more coherent; monitor results and acknowledge that regional engagement
enhance the core missions of teaching and research
Develop stronger connections with external stakeholders, and more professional senior management teams
Establish modern administration with HR and financial resources management systems: Review recruitment, hiring
and reward systems
Establish partnership organizations between HEIs
Significantdevelopments
Theaccreditation
syndrome
Francisco Marmolejo
6/12/2014
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Twitter: @fmarmole
What are the top 3 issues in tertiary education in your
region in which the Bank has an opportunity to act?
Quality Assurance/Governance
Employability of Graduates
Financing
Other priorities raised include Equity and Access,
Innovation, Focus on Community Colleges
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Twitter: @fmarmole
What should the Bank’s priorities be in tertiary
education in the next 5 years? *
15.4%
38.5%
38.5%
38.5%
38.5%
46.2%
53.8%
53.8%
61.5%
69.2%
69.2%
69.2%
76.9%
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0%
Diversification in institutional mission of TEIs
Greater focus on TEIs versus governments
Fostering internationalization
Non-university post-secondary sector
Articulation btw different types of TEIs and with Secondary Ed.
Innovation in educational delivery models used by TEIs
Developing capacity of TEIs in science and innovation
Equity and access to TE
Role of the private sector in TE
Improving governance
Improving quality assurance
Funding models for TE
Bridging gap between education and employment
* Multiple responses
Francisco Marmolejo
6/12/2014
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http://www.worldbnk.org/education/tertiary
Twitter: @fmarmole
Too much emphasis on assurance/compliance.
Still limited evidence on quality
Accreditation as a proxy of the status quo. Hindering innovation?
Perceived failures in some global efforts (AHELO)
The role of rankings
How much autonomy?
Variable / Type TRADITIONAL (I) TRANSITIONAL (II) MATURE (III) EGYPT
APPROACH TO QUALITY Quality Control (QC) Quality Assurance (QA) Quality Enhancement (QE) High on QC. Initial work in QA
NATIONAL EFFORTS Procedures to control/impose quality measures
Control plus incentives, training and monitoring
Accreditation based on adoption of QA practices
Still strong on procedures and control with novel pilot programmes based on incentives. Creation of a National Agency (NAQAAE) similar to those of Type III
countries.
LEVEL OF INSTITUTIONAL INTERVENTION
Institution-wide Academic offerings Institutional and academic offerings
Major emphasis on Institution-wide
intervention . Initial work on accreditation of academic offerings.
TIMING OF INTERVENTION Ex-ante-facto Ex-post-facto Both Both
DOMINANT EVALUATION APPROACH
Educational inputs Educational processes Both Major emphasis on educational inputs
PARTICIPATORYAPPROACH
Mandatory Voluntary Both Mandatory
APPLICABILITY BYINSTITUTIONAL TYPE
Either private OR public educational institutions. Differential treatment
Private AND public educational institutions. Trends towards equal treatment
Educational institutions and specialised accrediting agencies. Equal treatment
Applicable to both although with stricter
enforcement and regulations in the case of private institutions.
APPLICABILITY BY INSTITUTIONAL LEVEL
Universities Universities and some non-university institutions
All levels of the tertiary education system
Initial work at the level of universities.
Planned efforts at the level of non-university institutions
LEVEL OF GOVERNMENT PARTICIPATION
Central. Government Agency
Semi-autonomous Independent. Non-governmental entity
Central. Although NAQAAE is semi-
autonomous in theory, all its members are appointed by the central government
LEVEL OF STUDENT PARTICIPATION
QA system application QA system design Both QA system application
Francisco Marmolejo
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Twitter: @fmarmole
Connecting the Agency with just new
regulations, rather than as enabler of overall
improvement.
Francisco Marmolejo
6/12/2014
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Twitter: @fmarmole
Governance models
State-centered Market-orientedAcademic self-
governance
Dim
ensi
on
s o
f g
ov
ern
an
ce Organizational
Funding
Human Resources
Academic
Source: Adapted from Dobbins, M., Knill, C., & Vögtle, E. M. (2011). An analytical framework for the cross-
country comparison of higher education governance. Higher Education, 62(5), 665-683.
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Twitter: @fmarmole
Diversifying options, but leveling the playing field.
Assuring good quality institutions.
Making post-compulsory education and training equitable and affordable.
Targeting public resources toward programs that yield high social returns.
Using innovative approaches to retain students and ensure employable graduates.
Improving secondary education.
Increasing the autonomy and cost-efficiency of institutions and the TE systems.
Arming students with information so they make smart choices.
Embracing competition – national and global.
Fostering openness and an evidence-based culture in tertiary education.
Towards a new
paradigm in higher
education
Francisco Marmolejo
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Twitter: @fmarmole
More international, but more locally connected and
socially responsible.
More flexible
More innovative
More entrepreneur
Less risk averse
More collaborative (inside and
outside)
Francisco Marmolejo
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Twitter: @fmarmole
A priority for “tomorrow”
Marginal
About money and control
Too complex
A good idea, but..
A priority for ”yesterday”
Mainstreamed
About mobility of societies
Means for better education
A critical need
Francisco Marmolejo
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Twitter: @fmarmole
� What it may work in one case
There is no magic formula…
…it is not necessarily the best solution in other cases
For every complex problem there is
an answer that is clear, simple,
H. L. Mencken
…and wrong.
Francisco Marmolejo
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“ The trouble with our times is that
the future is not what it used to be ”
Paul Valéry
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Twitter: @fmarmole
Francisco MarmolejoTertiary Education Coordinator
The World BankTel. +1 (202) 458-5927
Email: [email protected]://www.worldbank.org/education/tertiary
Twitter @fmarmole