Key Technology Pathways for Global Warming Mitigation

Major Economics Forum on Energy and Climate Change

State Department, Loy Henderson AuditoriumWashington DC

27 April, 2009

Science and technology can provide new

solutions and better choices.

1960: Population = 3 B

2005:Population = 6.5 B

Source: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), United Nations

World Production of Grain (1961 – 2004)

The invention of ammonia synthesis by Haber and Bosch made possible

artificial fertilizers.

Norman Borlag receives the Nobel Prize for the

development of hybrid wheat

In the next few decades, energy efficiency and conservation will be the

most effective mitigations tools.

• Developed countries need to change infrastructure that was built when fossil energy was cheap and the unintended consequences of its use was unknown.

• Developing countries have the opportunity to leap-frog past developed countries and build an economically competitive infrastructure that uses energy efficiently.

Regulation stimulates technology: Refrigerator efficiency standards and performance.

Energy savings is greater than all of US renewable energy. Regulation of consumer electronics and computers can save a similar amount of energy.

US Electricity Use of Refrigerators and Freezers compared to sources of electricity

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Bill

ion

kW

h p

er y

ear

150 M Refrigerators and Freezers

at 1974 eff at 2001 eff

Nuclear

Conventional Hydro

3 GorgesDam

All existing Renewables

50 Million 2 kW PV Systems

Sa

ved

Use

d Use

d

Buildings use about 40 percent of total U.S. energy

Santorini, Greece

Bermuda

White roofed buildings

Retrofitting urban roofs and pavements with solar-

reflective materials would be the equivalent to taking all of the world’s billion cars off the

road for 11 years.

Buildings consume ~40% of U.S. energy:

– 90% reduction in new buildings (the California Public Utility Commission goal)– 50% reduction in retrofits– Enhanced comfort and safety

LEED ratings are based on design performance, not actual performance (EUI = End Use Intensity)

bad

good

Actual/Design EUI >1: performance worse than design goal

Mark Frankel, ACEEE (2008)

“Prius of buildings: Exploiting the interfaces between sub-systems to

reduce energy consumption”

Building Design SoftwareTools to Design New Buildings

With Embedded Energy Analysis

Windows & Lighting

HVAC

Onsite Power & Heat

Natural Ventilation, Indoor Environment

Building Operating Platform Sensors, Communication, Controls,

Real-Time Optimization

Building Materials

Appliances

Thermal & ElectricalStorage

Mechanisms are needed to supply up-front capital for efficiency improvements

Added mortgage or property taxes to pay for efficiency improvements that will decrease monthly expenses.

Some markets are isolated from energy price signals

(The Principal Agent Problem in Energy Efficiency)Regulation only captures modest gains: ~20%

International collaboration will accelerate carbon capture and storage. Long term

geological storage needs to be tested in a variety of sites.

CO2 sequestration is not off-the-shelf readyCO2 sequestration is not off-the-shelf ready

1. The verdict is not in: IGCC vs. CO2 capture “after stack”

vs. oxy-burn? Supercritical takes us from 43% to 48 - 50% efficiency. Better metal alloys or metal-ceramic composites are needed for better performance.

2. IGCC, Oxy-burn, etc. are ~8 - 10 years before significant

deployment can start. In the mean time we are building

conventional plants. We need a commercially viable

“after-stack” capture technology.

3. The human body provides a good proof-of-principle of

post combustion CO2 capture.

The carbonic anhydrases are a family of enzymes that catalyze the rapid conversion of carbon

dioxide to bicarbonate.

CO2 + H2O HCO3- + H+ (“high” pressure)

Carbonic anhydrase

Catalytic increase in rates range between 104 and 106 reactions per second.

CO2 + H2O HCO3- + H+ (“low” pressure)

Nuclear Fission provides carbon-free base-load power

Solving waste and nuclear proliferation will require international cooperation

Photovoltaics

Windmills

Gas turbines

2005

2005

Cost of electricity generation vs. installed capacity (1990 dollars / installed Megawatt hour)

5 - 10x cost difference

(not including distribution,

energy storage and

back-up generation

costs)

•An essential component transcontinental telephone line was the vacuum tube.

Another transformative technology

• Vacuum tubes generated a lot of heat and burned out.

• AT&T Bell Laboratories invested heavily in improving vacuum tubes. They also embarked on a research program to develop a solid state replacement to the vacuum tube.

Artificial Photosynthesis

The first important step is to use sunlight to

“split” water into oxygen and hydrogen.

2H2O + 4 photons O2 + 4H