Key Figures on Climate - caissedesdepots.fr

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Key Figures on ClimateFrance and Worldwide

2010 Edition

Service de l’observation et des statistiques

Highlights

Contacts:

MEEDDM - CGDD - SOeS

Sous-direction de l’observation

de l’énergie et des matières premières

Frédéric Ouradou: [email protected]

Sami Louati: [email protected]

MEEDDM - DGEC - SCEE

Sous-direction du climat et de la qualité de l’air Daniel Delalande: [email protected]

Caisse des Dépôts - Mission Climat

Anaïs Delbosc: [email protected]

Jérémy Elbèze: [email protected]

1

Summary

Part 1 Climate Change1.1 The Greenhouse Effect ....................................................................................................... 21.2 Humans and the Greenhouse Effect ................................................................................... 31.3 Stocks and Flows of GHGs: The Example of CO2 ............................................................ 41.4 Increase in Atmospheric GHG Levels ................................................................................ 51.5 Concentrations and Temperatures ..................................................................................... 61.6 Global Warming .................................................................................................................. 71.7 Warming Differentiated by Latitude ..................................................................................... 81.8 Consequences of Global Warming ..................................................................................... 9

Part 2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions2.1 Snapshot of Global GHG Emissions ................................................................................. 12

2.2 European Panorama of GHGs .......................................................................................... 14

2.3 French Panorama of GHGs .............................................................................................. 15

Part 3 Energy-related CO2 Emissions in the World3.1 Energy-related CO2 emissions .......................................................................................... 16

3.2 CO2 Emissions due to Electricity Production including CHP Plants ................................... 20

3.3 CO2 Emission Factors ...................................................................................................... 21

Part 4 CO2 Emissions by Sector in Europe and in France4.1 Fuel Combustion: the Largest Emitter of CO2 ................................................................... 22

4.2 CO2 Emissions due to Energy Production and Conversion ............................................... 23

4.3 Transportation-related CO2 Emissions .............................................................................. 25

4.4 Industry-related CO2 Emissions ........................................................................................ 27

4.5 CO2 Emissions in the Other Sectors ................................................................................. 29

4.6 CO2 Emissions excluding Fuel Combustion ...................................................................... 31

Part 5 Climate Policies5.1 The Kyoto Protocol .......................................................................................................... 32

5.2 The Tradable Permit Market ............................................................................................. 34

5.3 Project Mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol ....................................................................... 35

5.4 The European Union’s Commitment ................................................................................. 36

5.5 European CO2 Market (EU ETS) ....................................................................................... 37

5.6 Towards a Price Signal for CO2 Emissions ....................................................................... 39

5.7 States Climate Policy: The Case of France ....................................................................... 40

5.8 Other Initiatives to Reduce Emissions ............................................................................... 41

Practical informationCO2 Key Figures .................................................................................................................... 42

Glossary of Terms .................................................................................................................. 43

Useful Links ............................................................................................................................ 44

2

The Atmosphere’s role on the Greenhouse Effect

The Atmosphere and Greenhouse Gases

The sun supplies energy through its rays to the Earth which, in return, radiates an equal quantity of energy in the form of infrared radiation (IR). In the absence of greenhouse gases (GHGs), the temperature of the Earth would be -19°C (left figure). With the increase in concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere, a portion of the IR is reflected back towards the surface of the Earth. The Earth’s temperature increases until the energy radiated is equal to that absorbed. The presence of GHGs leads to an increase in surface temperature, which then reaches +14°C (right figure).

GHGs make up less than 0.1 % of the atmosphere. The abundance of water vapor (not represented above) fl uctuates from 0.4 % to 4 % in volume. Water vapor currently plays the largest role in the natural greenhouse effect.

The rise in the temperature of the Earth’s atmosphere over the industrial era, known as global warming, corresponds to the amplifi cation of the natural greenhouse phenomenon by human activities.

1.1 – The Greenhouse Effect

168

107

342

-19°C +14°C

107

235 23567

342235

Source: after IPCC, 4th report of the 1st working group, 2007.

Composition of the dry atmosphere (% of volume excluding H2O)

Role of the principal greenhouse gases in the refl ection of radiation towards

the surface (in W/m2)

Others1.0%

Oxygen (O2) 20.9%

Nitrogen (N2)78.1%

CH4 and N2O6%

O3

8%

H2O60%

CO2

26%

Source: IPCC, 3rd report of the 1st working group, 2001. Source: Kiehl & Trenberth 1996, National Center for Atmospheric Research. N.B.: proportions in the absence of clouds.

Energy fl ows, expressed in W/m2 with or without greenhouse gases (GHG)

3

Ozone and water vapor omitted due to the complexity of its lifecycle.ppm= part per million, ppb= part per billion, ppt=part per trillionThe Global Warming Potential (GWP) of a gas is the ratio between the energy refl ected towards the surface over 100 years per 1 kg of the gas and that which would be refl ected by 1 kg of CO2, used as a reference, over the same period. The GWP depends on the concentration and lifespan of each gas. Ex. : 1 kg of CH4 and 25 kg of CO2, emitted at the same time, would heat the atmosphere equally over one century.Radiative forcing quantifi es, in relation to a year of reference (here 1750), the changes in radiation, or the energy refl ected back towards the surface due to greenhouse gases. A positive value indicates a positive contribution to warming and vice versa.

Source: IPCC, 1st working group, 2007.

1.2 – Humans and the Greenhouse Effect

Characteristics of GHGs Infl uenced by Human Activity

Although CO2 has the smallest global warming potential of all greenhouse gases, it has nevertheless contributed the most to global warming since 1750.

Some human activities also contribute to reducing radiative forcing, most notably through the emissions of aerosols. These emissions, however, do not compensate for the positive contributions of other gases to radiative forcing.

CO2 CH4 N2O

Synthetic gases referenced by the Kyoto Protocol

HFC PFC SF6

Atmospheric Concentration 2005

379 ppm 1,174 ppb 319 ppb 60.6 ppt 76.9 ppt 5.6 ppt

Lifespan in the Atmosphere

Between2 years and thousand of

years

12 years 114 yearsBetween 1 and 260

years

about 10 000 years

3 200 years

Global Warming Potential (total over 100 years)

1 25 298

Between 124 and

14,800

Between 7,300 and

12,200

22,800

Sources in Human Activity

Burning of fossil fuels

and tropical deforestation

Landfi lls, agriculture, livestock

and industrial

processes

Agriculture, industrial

processes, use of

fertilizer

Aerosols, refrigeration, aluminium smelting

Change in Radiative Forcing Due to Anthropogenic Emissions since 1750

1.66 0.48 0.16 0.34

4

VolcanismFossil FuelandCementEmissions

Sequestration – Land-use Change

Photosynthesis– Respiration and Fires

(2 189 + 605)

< 0.423.5

1.5

1.5 8.1

0.7Sedimentation

Atmosphere

Ocean (139,333 + 433)

Biosphere(8,433 - 143)

Geological Reservoirs(13,567 - 895)

3.7

1.3 – Stocks and Flows of GHGs: The Example of CO2

The Simplifi ed CO2 Cycle

Four large reservoirs allow the storage of carbon in different forms:

- Atmosphere: gaseous CO2

- Biosphere: organic material and living things

- Ocean: calcium, dissolved CO2

- Subsoil: rocks, sediments, fossil fuels

Flows of carbon between these reservoirs constitute the carbon cycle, which is amended by CO2

emissions due to human activity.

Human activities disrupt the natural carbon cycle by changing the size of fl ows exchanged or through the creation of new fl ows. This is the case, for example, for the burning of organic and fossil fuels (coal, petroleum…).

Of the 1,038 Gt CO2 liberated by human activities from the biosphere and the lithosphere, the atmosphere has absorbed 605 Gt and the oceans 433 Gt. The atmosphere is the reservoir which is the most affected by human activities: the quantity of carbon absorbed has increased by 30 % compared to the pre-industrial era.

Natural reservoirs and fl ows are in black. The human perturbations to the reservoirs and fl ows are in red. Net carbon fl ows obser-ved in the 90’s are expressed in billions of tons of CO2 equivalent per year. These fl ows are variable through time, which explains that carbon fl ows do not always correspond to the observed variations in reservoirs. These reservoirs result from the cumulated fl ows from 1750 to 1994 and are expressed in billions of tons of CO2 equivalent.

Source: IPCC, 4th report of the 1st working group, 2007.

5

Emissions data from the burning of fossil fuels, the production of cement, the oceanic reservoir and the growth of the atmospheric reservoir are from the period 200-2005. The terrestrial fl ows are for the 1990s. As each category was measured separately, overall uncertainty is not equal to the sum of the presented values.


-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Uncertainty

Burningof fossil fuels

cementproduction

26.4

CO2

(G

tCO2

/an)

Land-use changes

5.9

Terrestrial Reservoirs

– 9.5

Oceanic Reservoir

– 8.1

Atmospheric Reservoir

15.0

CO

2 (G

t C

O2/

year

)

450 353

1,261

236

208

442

2930

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Tropical forests (area-weighted

mean of dry and humid forests)

Temperate forests Boreal forests Croplands

Biomass

Soil

Sto

ck d

e ca

rbon

e (

tCO2

eq/h

a) C

arb

one

Sto

ck (t

CO

2 eq

./ha

)

Source : GIEC, 2000.

Carbon content of forests per hectare

Annual change in CO2 by source, reservoir and the associated uncertainty

1.4 – Increase in Atmospheric GHG Levels

Imbalance between Emissions and Storage Capacity

Importance of forest carbon

Since the increase in industrial activities, terrestrial and oceanic reservoirs have absorbed half of the human-related emissions. The atmosphere has therefore served to absorb the excess, which has led to increased concentration of greenhouse gases.

Forests are the largest terrestrial carbon reservoir. They store approximately 9.5 Gt CO2eq emissions per year, equivalent to 30% of global GHG emissions.

Deforestation leads to emissions of greenhouse gases through burning and decomposition of organic matter, mainly in the form of CO2. In 2004, emissions from deforestation reached 8.7 Gt CO2eq, thisis the third most emitting sector in the world.

6

1.5 – Concentrations and Temperatures

Carbone dioxide (CO2) {CO2 379 ppm+35%}

{N2O 270 ppb+18%}

Beginning of theindustrial area

Nitrous oxide (N2O)

Year

Methane (CH4)

{CH4 1,774 ppb+148%}

CO

2 (p

pm),

N2O

(ppb

)

CH

4 (pp

b)

500 1000 1500 2000

400

350

300

250

2,000

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600


CO

2 (p

pm

), N

2O (p

pb

)

CH

4 (p

pb

)

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

50,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000-18

-16

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

Today

Years agoThese results were obtained from the analysis of ice cores sampled at Vostok (Antarctica).

Source: World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder & NOAA Paleoclimatology Program.

Temperature and concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere over the last 400 000 years

The fi gure in brackets indicates the atmospheric concentration of GHG in 2005 and their percentage of growth since 1750.

The stable nature of concentrations before the industrial era shifted radically in 1750, exhibiting a strong increase in levels due to the intensifi cation of human activities emitting large quantities of GHGs. In 2008, atmospheric CO2 concentration achieved 385 ppm, 38% above pre-industrial level (Source: World Meteorological Organisation, 2009).

The oscillations in temperature and concentration of CO2 are not yet fully understood. While the similarity of their evolutions is not fully explained, it indicates that the two values are connected.The current concentration of CO2 is 30% higher than the maximum observed over the 450,000 years of weather records.

Historic Evolution of GHG Concentrations

Correlation between Temperature and the Concentration of CO2

Diff

eren

ce f

rom

cur

rent

tem

per

atur

e (°

C)

Con

cent

ratio

n of

CO

2 (p

pm

)

7

1.6 – Global Warming

14.6

14.4

14.2

14.0

13.8

13.6

13.4

13.2

Tem

péra

ture

glo

bale

moy

enne

est

imée

(°C

)

Annual mean

Smoothed series

5-95% decadal errors bars

PeriodYears

Rate°C per decade


Source: Météo-France, 2008.

Température globale estimée et taux d’accroissement depuis 1850

Mean temperature evolution in Metropolitan France and the world since 1901 compared with the 1971-2000.

Estimated global mean temperature

France World

(°C

) Estimated global temperature and growth rate since 1850

The global average temperature has increased by approximately + 1 °C over the last century. This increase is particularly apparent over the last 25 years, when the rate of temperature growth was the strongest of the entire century.

In France and in the world, the temperatures of the last decade have systematically been above the average temperature of 1971-2000. The last decade also counts seven of the ten warmest years since 1901.

Tem

pera

ture

diff

eren

ce fr

om

1971

-200

0 av

erag

e (°

C)

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

1901

1906

1911

1916

1921

1926

1931

1936

1941

1946

1951

1956

1961

1966

1971

1976

1981

1986

1991

1996

2001

2006

Tem

pera

ture

diff

eren

ce fr

om

1971

-200

0 av

erag

e (°

C)

1901

1906

1911

1916

1921

1926

1931

1936

1941

1946

1951

1956

1961

1966

1971

1976

1981

1986

1991

1996

2001

2006

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

8

1.7 – Warming Differentiated by Latitude

The temperatures by region are the median temperatures predicted overall by the scenario models. The global temperature is the best estimate possible.

Source: Scenario A1B, IPCC, 4th report of the 1st working group, 2007.

Source: Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute.

Temperature increase in °C per decade

Observed temperature change in Europe 1976-2006

The expected increase in temperature varies according to latitude. The warming will be less in the tropics than at the poles. Equally, the increase in temperature in coastal regions is less than in inland.

With reasonable hypothetical conditions (continued levels of observed economic and demogra-phic development and balance between fossil and renewable energy sources), the increases in annual temperatures over a single century (period from 1999-2099) are estimated:

+ 3,5°C in Southern Europe

+ 2,5°C in Southeast Asia

+ 4,9°C in the Arctic (North Pole)

+ 3,2°C in Central America

+ 2,6°C in Southern Australia

+ 3.3°C In West Africa

There has been an increase in mean temperatures everywhere in Europe during the period 1976-2006. This evolution is not uniform: the increase is greater in the North.

For a global increase of + 2,8°C

9

1.8 – Consequences of Global Warming

Source: European Environment Agency, 2008.

Source: Laboratoire de glaciologie et géophysique de l’environnement, 2006.

Snow-cover anomaly refers to the difference between each monthly value and the annual mean.

Northern hemisphere snow cover extent variation 1966-2005

Combined mass balance evolution of 3 glaciers from French Alps since 1994

The run down of glacier mass from the Alps has not been uniform over the period. The falls in levels (as a result of winter with a small amount of snow and very hot summer) has been punctuated with short phases of growth.

1

0.5

0

-0.5

-1

-1.5

-2

-2.5

-3.51994

Saint-Sorlin

Com

bine

d m

ass

bala

nce

(m.w

ater

)

Argentière Gébroulaz

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

-3

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

12-month running mean of monthly anomaliesMonthly snow-cover anomalies

Sno

w-c

over

ano

mal

y (m

illio

n km

2 )

4

2

0

– 2

– 4

Trend

Melting Ice

Decrease in snow-cover

10

1850 1900 1950 2000

Ecar

t à la

moy

enne

sur

la p

ério

de 1

961-

1990

(mm

)



1.8 – Consequences of Global Warming

CausesIncrease in sea level (mm/year) and contribution to measured growth

1961-2003 1993-2003

Thermal Expansion 0.42 ± 0.12 23% 1.6 ± 0.05 52%

Glaciers and Polar Ice Caps 0.50 ± 0.18 28% 0.77 ± 0.22 25%

Glacial Cover of Greenland 0.05 ± 0.12 3% 0.21 ± 0.07 7%

Glacial Cover of Antarctica 0.14 ± 0.41 8% 0.21 ± 0.35 7%

Sum of Contributions 1.1 ± 0.5 61% 2.8 ± 0.7 90%

Increase Measured 1.8 ± 0.5 100% 3.1 ± 0.7 100%

Difference 0.7 ± 0.7 29% 0.3 ± 1.0 10%

Diff

eren

ce f

rom

1961

-199

0 (m

m)

Global average sea level

Increase in Sea Level Worldwide

The Various Causes of Increased Sea Level

Global warming affects sea levels worldwide. Readings indicate a continued increase in levels since the 1870s.

Increases in sea level will most likely lead to migration of population living in fl ooded areas or who have no access to drinking water because of the salinization of essential groundwater resources.

Over a decade, the principal factors of growth of global sea levels are thermal expansion and the melting of terrestrial ice deposits (glaciers, polar ice caps, snow cover, permafrost).

Today, 10% of the increase in sea level over the last 10 years remains unexplained.

11

-10

0

10

20

30

Abnormally cold days

Diff

eren

ce fr

om 1

951-

1990

ave

rage

Abnormally warm days

Anomalies in precipitation (%)

Abnormally cold and warm days

The reference used is the mean of the indicator considered over the period 1961-1990. The curves represent the mobile averages per decade. All regions worldwide are not included due to insuffi cient data.


3

2

1

0

-1

-2

The indicator used is the portion of rainfall abnormally high in terms of yearly precipitation. This graphic presents the difference, in %, between this portion and the mean observed between 1961-1990. The orange curve shows the variations per decade. All regions worldwide were not included due to insuffi cient data.


Extreme Weather Events

Temperature and Precipitation Extremes

A weather event is classifi ed as extreme when it substantially exceeds a base of reference. Extreme events are always unpredictable; it is their increase in average frequency of occurrence or average intensity that can indicate climate changes.

A number of weather events can be considered as extreme: tornadoes, hurricanes, as well as heat waves or abnormally heavy rainfall.

A day is considered abnormally cold (or warm) when the observed temperature is below (or above) the limit of 90% of the coldest (or hottest) temperatures recorded between 1951-1990.

A decrease in the number of days abnormally cold and a growth in the number of days abnormally warm have been noted since the 1990s. Anomalies in precipitations have also been noted over the same time period.

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