13
Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited KEY DATA Rating BUY Sector relative Neutral Price (INR) 3,542 12 month price target (INR) 4,140 Market cap (INR bn/USD bn) 853/11.7 Free float/Foreign ownership (%) 49.4/16.0 What’s Changed Target Price Rating/Risk Rating QUICK TAKE Growth moderates as expected Britannia Industries (Britannia) posted Q3FY21 revenue (up 6.1% YoY) lower than expected, whereas EBITDA (up 21.8% YoY) outperformed. With the country unlocked, pantry loading has normalised and consumers have reverted to diversified snacking options, thereby lifting volume growth 4% YoY on a base as 3%. Despite moderate inflationary pressure of 1% YoY in Britannia’s raw material basket, mix improvement drove up gross margin by 209bps YoY. Cost optimisation and efficiency shored up EBITDA margin by 249bps YoY. With adjacent categories (e.g. cake) continuing to do well, Britannia’s journey towards becoming a total foods company continues to gain heft in our view. Retain ‘BUY’ with TP of INR4,140. FINANCIALS (INR mn) Year to March FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E Revenue 1,15,996 1,31,046 1,38,205 1,50,319 EBITDA 18,432 25,521 24,474 27,380 Adjusted profit 14,106 19,069 18,120 20,454 Diluted EPS (INR) 58.7 79.3 75.4 85.1 EPS growth (%) 22.0 35.1 (5.0) 12.9 RoAE (%) 32.6 40.7 33.4 32.0 P/E (x) 60.3 44.7 47.0 41.6 EV/EBITDA (x) 46.5 33.5 34.6 30.7 Dividend yield (%) 1.0 1.6 0.6 0.7 PRICE PERFORMANCE Biscuit growth comes off; adjacent businesses robust After a strong H1FY21, volume growth came off QoQ from 9% YoY in Q2FY21 to 4% YoY in Q3FY21, reaffirming our thesis that biscuit growth would normalise as out-of- home consumption recovers. General trade and rural posted robust growth while modern trade and institutional business were muted. Adjacent businesses continued to deliver healthy profitable growth. Rusk perked up by double digits and its profitability improved too. Bread’s profitability improved significantly. New cake innovations have done well, but core category is down due to schools being shut and it being more urban-centric. The company, however, has gained market share in cake. In dairy, cheese, sustained double-digit growth trajectory while the drinks portfolio seems to be recovering gradually as out of home consumption picked up. Q3FY21 conference call: Key takeaways Wafers did well, growing 30%+ YoY. Croissants are growing well in test markets. As much as 35–40% of the biscuit market comprises four Hindi belt states (Rajasthan, MP, UP and Gujarat). The company was under-indexed here with only one–third of national market in these states. Now it is half of the national market share implying much room to grow. E-commerce made up ~1% (up from 0.5%) and modern trade about 10% (lower than pre-covid-19). Explore: Outlook and valuation: Positive; maintain ‘BUY’ A robust product pipeline, entry in new categories and geographies, and deepening reach will help Britannia sustain the outperformance in our view. We maintain ‘BUY/SN’ with a revised TP of INR4,140 (from INR4,345) due to the miss on revenue growth. The stock is trading at 47.0x FY22E EPS. Financials Year to March Q3FY21 Q3FY20 % Change Q2FY21 % Change Net Revenue 31,656 29,827 6.1 34,191 (7.4) EBITDA 6,115 5,020 21.8 6,754 (9.5) Adjusted Profit 4,526 3,696 22.5 4,957 (8.7) Diluted EPS (INR) 18.8 15.4 22.5 20.6 (8.7) Above In line Below Profit Margins Revenue Growth Overall 25,000 30,200 35,400 40,600 45,800 51,000 2,125 2,500 2,875 3,250 3,625 4,000 Feb-20 May-20 Aug-20 Nov-20 BRIT IN Equity Sensex India Equity Research Consumer Staples February 8, 2021 BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES RESULT UPDATE Abneesh Roy Tushar Sundrani Prateek Barsagade +91 (22) 6620 3141 +91 (22) 6620 3004 +91 (22) 4063 5407 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Corporate access Financial model Podcast Video

KEY DATA Growth moderates as expected

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Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited

KEY DATA

Rating BUY Sector relative Neutral Price (INR) 3,542 12 month price target (INR) 4,140 Market cap (INR bn/USD bn) 853/11.7 Free float/Foreign ownership (%) 49.4/16.0

What’s Changed Target Price

Rating/Risk Rating ⚊

QUICK TAKE

Growth moderates as expected

Britannia Industries (Britannia) posted Q3FY21 revenue (up 6.1% YoY) lower than expected, whereas EBITDA (up 21.8% YoY) outperformed. With the country unlocked, pantry loading has normalised and consumers have reverted to diversified snacking options, thereby lifting volume growth 4% YoY on a base as 3%.

Despite moderate inflationary pressure of 1% YoY in Britannia’s raw material basket, mix improvement drove up gross margin by 209bps YoY. Cost optimisation and efficiency shored up EBITDA margin by 249bps YoY. With adjacent categories (e.g. cake) continuing to do well, Britannia’s journey towards becoming a total foods company continues to gain heft in our view. Retain ‘BUY’ with TP of INR4,140.

FINANCIALS (INR mn)

Year to March FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E

Revenue 1,15,996 1,31,046 1,38,205 1,50,319

EBITDA 18,432 25,521 24,474 27,380

Adjusted profit 14,106 19,069 18,120 20,454

Diluted EPS (INR) 58.7 79.3 75.4 85.1

EPS growth (%) 22.0 35.1 (5.0) 12.9

RoAE (%) 32.6 40.7 33.4 32.0

P/E (x) 60.3 44.7 47.0 41.6

EV/EBITDA (x) 46.5 33.5 34.6 30.7

Dividend yield (%) 1.0 1.6 0.6 0.7

PRICE PERFORMANCE

Biscuit growth comes off; adjacent businesses robust

After a strong H1FY21, volume growth came off QoQ from 9% YoY in Q2FY21 to 4%

YoY in Q3FY21, reaffirming our thesis that biscuit growth would normalise as out-of-

home consumption recovers. General trade and rural posted robust growth while

modern trade and institutional business were muted. Adjacent businesses continued

to deliver healthy profitable growth. Rusk perked up by double digits and its

profitability improved too. Bread’s profitability improved significantly. New cake

innovations have done well, but core category is down due to schools being shut and

it being more urban-centric. The company, however, has gained market share in

cake. In dairy, cheese, sustained double-digit growth trajectory while the drinks

portfolio seems to be recovering gradually as out of home consumption picked up.

Q3FY21 conference call: Key takeaways

Wafers did well, growing 30%+ YoY. Croissants are growing well in test markets. As

much as 35–40% of the biscuit market comprises four Hindi belt states (Rajasthan,

MP, UP and Gujarat). The company was under-indexed here with only one–third of

national market in these states. Now it is half of the national market share implying

much room to grow. E-commerce made up ~1% (up from 0.5%) and modern trade

about 10% (lower than pre-covid-19).

Explore:

Outlook and valuation: Positive; maintain ‘BUY’

A robust product pipeline, entry in new categories and geographies, and deepening

reach will help Britannia sustain the outperformance in our view. We maintain

‘BUY/SN’ with a revised TP of INR4,140 (from INR4,345) due to the miss on revenue

growth. The stock is trading at 47.0x FY22E EPS.

Financials Year to March Q3FY21 Q3FY20 % Change Q2FY21 % Change

Net Revenue 31,656 29,827 6.1 34,191 (7.4)

EBITDA 6,115 5,020 21.8 6,754 (9.5)

Adjusted Profit 4,526 3,696 22.5 4,957 (8.7)

Diluted EPS (INR) 18.8 15.4 22.5 20.6 (8.7)

Above In line Below

Profit

Margins

Revenue Growth

Overall

25,000

30,200

35,400

40,600

45,800

51,000

2,125

2,500

2,875

3,250

3,625

4,000

Feb-20 May-20 Aug-20 Nov-20

BRIT IN Equity Sensex

India Equity Research Consumer Staples February 8, 2021

BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES RESULT UPDATE

Abneesh Roy Tushar Sundrani Prateek Barsagade +91 (22) 6620 3141 +91 (22) 6620 3004 +91 (22) 4063 5407 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Corporate access

Financial model Podcast

Video

BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES

Edelweiss Securities Limited

2 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset

Financial Statements

Income Statement (INR mn) Year to March FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E

Total operating income 1,15,996 1,31,046 1,38,205 1,50,319

Gross profit 46,721 55,671 57,163 62,336

Employee costs 4,867 5,283 5,448 5,777

Other expenses 12,667 13,529 14,983 15,849

EBITDA 18,432 25,521 24,474 27,380

Depreciation 1,848 1,986 2,212 2,395

Less: Interest expense 769 1,405 1,080 800

Add: Other income 2,794 3,395 3,073 3,195

Profit before tax 18,613 25,527 24,257 27,382

Prov for tax 4,507 6,458 6,137 6,927

Less: Other adj 0 0 0 0

Reported profit 14,106 19,069 18,120 20,454

Less: Excp.item (net) 0 0 0 0

Adjusted profit 14,106 19,069 18,120 20,454

Diluted shares o/s 240 240 240 240

Adjusted diluted EPS 58.7 79.3 75.4 85.1

DPS (INR) 35.0 55.5 22.6 25.5

Tax rate (%) 24.2 25.3 25.3 25.3

Important Ratios (%) Year to March FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E

Gross margin (%) 40.3 42.5 41.4 41.5

A&P (% of rev) 4.2 4.0 4.0 4.0

Other exp (% of rev) 6.6 6.2 6.5 6.3

EBITDA margin (%) 15.9 19.5 17.7 18.2

Net profit margin (%) 12.2 14.6 13.1 13.6

Revenue growth (% YoY) 4.3 12.6 5.7 8.7

EBITDA growth (% YoY) 6.3 38.5 (4.1) 11.9

Adj. profit growth (%) 22.1 35.2 (5.0) 12.9

Assumptions (%) Year to March FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E

GDP (YoY %) 4.8 (6.0) 7.0 6.0

Repo rate (%) 4.4 3.5 3.5 4.0

USD/INR (average) 70.7 75.0 73.0 72.0

Biscuits 3.0 11.5 5.1 8.5

Bread 1.5 15.5 7.5 8.5

Cake and rusk 1.5 15.5 7.5 7.5

Dairy (6.0) 5.0 10.0 15.0

Int business 21.2 10.0 10.0 15.0

COGS % of sales 60.5 58.5 59.5 59.4

Valuation Metrics Year to March FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E

Diluted P/E (x) 60.3 44.7 47.0 41.6

Price/BV (x) 19.3 17.1 14.5 12.4

EV/EBITDA (x) 46.5 33.5 34.6 30.7

Dividend yield (%) 1.0 1.6 0.6 0.7

Source: Company and Edelweiss estimates

Balance Sheet (INR mn) Year to March FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E

Share capital 241 241 241 241

Reserves 43,788 49,508 58,514 68,679

Shareholders funds 44,028 49,749 58,754 68,920

Minority interest 357 355 353 351

Borrowings 15,141 17,212 10,212 10,212

Trade payables 11,163 11,977 12,878 13,981

Other liabs & prov 7,603 7,603 7,603 7,603

Total liabilities 78,422 87,027 89,930 1,01,197

Net block 17,392 19,768 22,056 24,161

Intangible assets 1,390 1,390 1,390 1,390

Capital WIP 396 500 500 500

Total fixed assets 19,177 21,658 23,946 26,050

Non current inv 18,845 18,845 18,845 18,845

Cash/cash equivalent 11,316 16,176 15,976 24,043

Sundry debtors 3,204 4,236 4,478 4,870

Loans & advances 14,556 14,556 14,556 14,556

Other assets 11,324 11,556 12,130 12,834

Total assets 78,422 87,027 89,930 1,01,197

Free Cash Flow (INR mn) Year to March FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E

Reported profit 18,439 19,067 18,118 20,452

Add: Depreciation 1,848 1,986 2,212 2,395

Interest (net of tax) (999) (1,990) (1,993) (2,395)

Others 0 0 0 0

Less: Changes in WC 1,274 449 (84) (8)

Operating cash flow 14,845 18,613 18,420 20,460

Less: Capex 0 4,105 4,500 4,500

Free cash flow 0 0 0 0

Key Ratios Year to March FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E

RoE (%) 32.6 40.7 33.4 32.0

RoCE (%) 37.3 42.5 37.1 37.9

Inventory days 40 36 36 36

Receivable days 11 10 12 11

Payable days 59 56 56 56

Working cap (% sales) 18.8 20.9 19.5 23.4

Gross debt/equity (x) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1

Net debt/equity (x) 0.1 0 (0.1) (0.2)

Interest coverage (x) 21.6 16.8 20.6 31.2

Valuation Drivers Year to March FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E

EPS growth (%) 22.0 35.1 (5.0) 12.9

RoE (%) 32.6 40.7 33.4 32.0

EBITDA growth (%) 6.3 38.5 (4.1) 11.9

Payout ratio (%) nm 609.1 232.4 278.4

Edelweiss Securities Limited

BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES

Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset 3

Trends at a glance

Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21

Domestic volume growth (% YoY) 7.0 7.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 0.1 21.5 9.0 4.0

Consolidated sales growth (% YoY) 10.7 10.3 6.2 6.2 3.8 2.5 26.7 12.1 6.1

Standalone sales growth (% YoY) 12.1 11.7 7.2 7.1 3.1 0.9 24.8 11.4 5.7

Consolidated EBITDA margin (%) 15.9 15.6 14.6 16.1 16.8 15.8 21.0 19.8 19.3

Standalone EBITDA margin (%) 16.5 15.8 15.8 16.2 17.1 15.9 20.9 19.2 19.2

Consolidated Gross margin (%) 41.0 40.5 39.9 39.7 39.9 38.4 41.0 41.4 42.0

Standalone Gross margin (%) 41.1 40.9 40.9 39.4 39.9 38.3 40.2 40.5 41.6

Source: Company

Q3FY21 conference call: Key takeaways

Overall

Robust General Trade & rural growth; however modern trade & Institutional

business is muted.

Diversification of purchase basket as consumers transition to a normal life

Normalized pantry stocking & diversification of diet as more products get on the

shelf.

Probably 36–37 quarters straight of MS gains.

Direct reach at 2.29mn outlets.

Rural distribution is also picking up.

Most of the company’s pillar brands are back on air.

The company is focussed on e-commerce as the channel is growing

exponentially.

New launches have been muted, however, the company did launch a few

products.

The company is looking at accelerating its pace of innovation and launches.

With covid-19 led disruption, the company will focus back on strengthening

distribution infrastructure and reach.

The focus on brand building and visibility will continue.

Ongoing large IT transformation will end over the next three months.

Health and wellness trend is here to stay. Companies will need to align portfolios

to this trend.

Exit growth is similar to the quarter’s growth.

600 trains running out of 13,000 in Q3FY21. Over 1,000 trains running now but

occupancy is still 50%. Transit clusters not performing, which is big for the

company.

Parle has executed well during covid-19 times. Also down-trading worked in

Parle’s favour.

A slew of product launches are lined up for core and adjacencies at both

affordable and premium price points.

BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES

Edelweiss Securities Limited

4 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset

Only two players have gained share in this quarter – Britannia and Parle.

Wafers has done well, growing 30%+ YoY.

Croissants growing well in test markets. The company is rejigging its product as

well.

Growth rates are below what the company expected.

By channel, Future Group was a big partner and now it is not there.

Traditional and rural growth were above pre-covid-19 levels. If urban and

institutional business had grown at normalized level, growth would have been

higher than pre-covid-19 levels.

E-commerce contribution is about 1%. Used to be 0.5%.

Modern trade contribution would be about 10%. Lower than pre-covid-19 levels.

Capex is 60% of normal levels in FY21 at about INR2bn. In FY22, the company will

review the Bakery capacity and demand, and then take a call on capacity

addition. Going ahead on the dairy project as planned.

A good deal of company’s growth is coming from rural India, and thereof smaller

pack contribution is high. The company is geared for both small and large packs.

Wafers used to work on high discount and high retailer margin model. The

company persisted with its model of no discounts and reasonable channel

margin and has made inroads. The company is the no. 2 player in the category

and no. 1 as far as distribution is concerned. Building a plant in Tamil Nadu, which

will spur its innovation in this category.

11% YoY volume growth YTD. Growth rates will revert to pre-FY20 levels.

35%-40% of the market are four Hindi belt states (Rajasthan, MP, UP and

Gujarat). The company was under-indexed with only one–third of the national

market in these states. Now it is half of national market share. So still plenty of

room to grow.

Pre-covid direct dispatches was 8% and it is now at 22%. Direct dispatches aid

transportation cost.

The ERP system is being upgraded. Dealer manager system (12–15 years old) is

also being upgraded. Vendor management is also being upgraded. All these

systems will be integrated; hence, we will have more data for business decisions.

INR7bn capex done at Ranjangaon. Total capex planned is INR15bn, which

includes the dairy project as well. The company has until 2024 to complete it. All

of the company’s categories are present there. 110% incentive from

Maharashtra for capex.

International business

Healthy growths in the Middle East & Africa.

Rest of International continues to grow at a healthy pace.

Edelweiss Securities Limited

BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES

Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset 5

Adjacency business

Improvement in Bread profitability.

Stable growth & improved profitability in rusk.

Rusk has grown by a solid double-digit growth, but cake hasn’t grown in double

digits.

Cake innovations have done well, but core category is down due to schools being

shut and it being more urban-centric. The company has gained MS in cake.

Cheese continues to grow in double-digits

Recovery in Drinks as out-of-home consumption is picking up gradually.

Milk prices have come off, which has led to improved profitability.

The company will be open to inorganic acquisitions; however, valuations are

high.

Raw material and margins

Steep inflation in certain commodities like palm oil.

The company will look to maintain these high margins to whatever extent

possible.

Outlook and valuation: Positive; maintain ‘BUY’

Britannia is the value leader in the biscuit category (ahead of Parle) and has

sustained market share gains. We believe the company’s growth will continue to

outstrip the industry in FY22. In the long term as well, Britannia’s deepening

distribution network, particularly in rural, with focus on driving growth in states it

has a weak standing in—Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan—

will hold it in good stead. The company’s aggregate growth has improved with the

rise in its market share.

Britannia is also plugging gaps in its portfolio. It is evolving into a total foods

company with the launch of wafer biscuits, croissants, salty snacks, etc. Meanwhile,

the company is focusing on expanding and deepening its product offerings and

tapping into adjacent categories such as cake, rusk and bread. Going ahead, watch

out for a strong innovation pipeline in these categories. It also has big plans in the

dairy business, poised for a leg-up once the new plant comes on stream. We remain

optimistic on Britannia’s execution capabilities and potential to scale up its dairy

portfolio.

Britannia’s cost-saving initiatives (targeting ~2.1% of revenue per year) continue to

be robust, helping it sustain margin expansion. A gradual improvement in the

product mix will also aid in gross and EBITDA margins.

We maintain ‘BUY/SN’ with a revised TP of INR4,140. The stock is trading at 47.0x

FY22E EPS.

BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES

Edelweiss Securities Limited

6 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset

One-year forward P/E

Source: Edelweiss Research

Consolidated sales growth

Source: Company

Standalone sales growth

Source: Company

0

900

1,800

2,700

3,600

4,500

Feb

-17

Au

g-1

7

Feb

-18

Au

g-1

8

Feb

-19

Au

g-1

9

Feb

-20

Au

g-2

0

Feb

-21

(IN

R)

40x

45x

50x

3

55x

60x

35x

30x

0.0

6.0

12.0

18.0

24.0

30.0

Q2

FY1

8

Q3

FY1

8

Q4

FY1

8

Q1

FY1

9

Q2

FY1

9

Q3

FY1

9

Q4

FY1

9

Q1

FY2

0

Q2

FY2

0

Q3

FY2

0

Q4

FY2

0

Q1

FY2

1

Q2

FY2

1

Q3

FY2

1

(%)

0.0

6.0

12.0

18.0

24.0

30.0

Q2

FY1

8

Q3

FY1

8

Q4

FY1

8

Q1

FY1

9

Q2

FY1

9

Q3

FY1

9

Q4

FY1

9

Q1

FY2

0

Q2

FY2

0

Q3

FY2

0

Q4

FY2

0

Q1

FY2

1

Q2

FY2

1

Q3

FY2

1

(%)

Edelweiss Securities Limited

BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES

Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset 7

Gross margin

Source: Company

EBITDA margin

Source: Company

Volume growth

Source: Company

30.0

33.0

36.0

39.0

42.0

45.0

Q3

FY1

8

Q4

FY1

8

Q1

FY1

9

Q2

FY1

9

Q3

FY1

9

Q4

FY1

9

Q1

FY2

0

Q2

FY2

0

Q3

FY2

0

Q4

FY2

0

Q1

FY2

1

Q2

FY2

1

Q3

FY2

1

(%)

0.0

6.0

12.0

18.0

24.0

30.0

Q3

FY1

8

Q4

FY1

8

Q1

FY1

9

Q2

FY1

9

Q3

FY1

9

Q4

FY1

9

Q1

FY2

0

Q2

FY2

0

Q3

FY2

0

Q4

FY2

0

Q1

FY2

1

Q2

FY2

1

Q3

FY2

1

(%)

0.0

6.0

12.0

18.0

24.0

30.0

Q3

FY

18

Q4

FY

18

Q1

FY

19

Q2

FY

19

Q3

FY

19

Q4

FY

19

Q1

FY

20

Q2

FY

20

Q3

FY

20

Q4

FY

20

Q1

FY

21

Q2

FY

21

Q3

FY

21

(%)

BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES

Edelweiss Securities Limited

8 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset

Commodity watch (overall inflation approximately 1% for Britannia)

Source: Company

Britannia continues to gain market share

Source: Company

Edelweiss Securities Limited

BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES

Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset 9

Financial snapshot (INR mn)

Year to march Q3FY21 Q3FY20 % change Q2FY21 % change YTD21 FY21E FY22E

Net sales 31,061 29,360 5.8 33,544 (7.4) 98,449 1,28,846 1,36,205

Other operating Income 595 467 27.4 648 (8.1) 1,605 2,200 2,000

Total Income 31,656 29,827 6.1 34,191 (7.4) 1,00,054 1,31,046 1,38,205

Cost of materials 18,014 17,642 2.1 19,651 (8.3) 57,625 75,375 81,042

Employee cost 1,318 1,216 8.4 1,345 (2.0) 4,032 5,283 5,448

Other Expenditure 6,209 5,949 4.4 6,441 (3.6) 18,359 14,173 15,664

Total Expenditure 25,541 24,806 3.0 27,437 (6.9) 80,016 1,05,525 1,13,731

EBITDA 6,115 5,020 21.8 6,754 (9.5) 20,038 25,521 24,474

Depreciation 486 467 4.0 485 0.2 1,450 1,986 2,212

EBIT 5,629 4,553 23.6 6,269 (10.2) 18,588 23,536 22,262

Other inc 826 652 26.7 735 12.3 2,497 3,395 3,073

Interest net 318 237 34.3 298 6.6 872 1,405 1,080

Profit Before Tax 6,137 4,969 23.5 6,701 (8.4) 20,207 25,525 24,255

Provision for Tax 1,611 1,273 26.6 1,750 (7.9) 5,304 6,458 6,137

Exceptional Items (Net of Tax) - - (5) (6) 0 0

Reported Profit 4,526 3,696 22.5 4,952 (8.6) 14,905 19,069 18,120

Adjusted Profit 4,526 3,696 22.5 4,957 (8.7) 14,911 19,069 18,120

No. of Shares outstanding (mn) 240 240 - 240 - 240 240.5 240.5

Adjusted Diluted EPS 18.8 15.4 22.5 20.6 (8.7) 62.1 79.3 75.4

As % of net revenues

Cost of materials 58.0 60.1 (209) 58.6 (59) 57.6 58.5 59.5

Employee cost 4.2 4.1 9 3.9 23 4.0 4.0 3.9

Other Expenditure 19.6 19.9 (33) 18.8 78 18.3 10.8 11.3

EBITDA 19.3 16.8 249 19.8 (44) 20.0 19.5 17.7

Net profit 14.3 12.4 191 14.5 (20) 14.9 14.6 13.1

Tax Rate 26.2 25.6 63 26.1 13 26.2 25.3 25.3

Source: Company, Edelweiss Research

BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES

Edelweiss Securities Limited

10 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset

Company Description

Britannia is the value leader in the biscuit category and one of the oldest brands in

India. Britannia has a presence in the biscuit, bread, cakes, rusk and dairy segment.

In biscuits the company has brands like Good Day, Crackers, Nutrichoice, Marie Gold,

Tiger, Milk Bikis, Jim Jam, Bourbon, Little Hearts, Pure Magic and Nice Time.

Britannia is focussed on driving growth through its 7 power brands – GoodDay, Tiger,

Marie, Milk Bikis, 50:50, Treat and Nutri Choice. Britannia is present in dairy with

value added products like cheese, yogurt, flavoured milk, butter etc and plans to go

for full integration of this business. Apart from this the company is also present in

cakes and rusks which remain a key focus area. On the international front Britannia

exports to many countries and has international subsidiary in Middle East.

Investment Theme

Britannia is expected to outperform the industry growth led by strong innovation

pipeline and distribution expansion. The company is focusing on reducing the gap

with Parle and is driving inroads in the market where it is weak i.e. the hinterland.

Britannia is not only launching new products but also relaunching its key brands (like

GoodDay, Milk BIkis and Tiger) which are yield good results. The company is soon

going to commission its R&D facility which will also give a boost to innovation.

Britannia is however targeting cost savings of INR2.3–2.7bn for FY20, which will

protect margins, while rising mix of premium products (versus the value segment)

will boost margins.

Key Risks

Increased competitive intensity: Rising competitive intensity (especially from players

like Patanjali) can potentially result in volume pressures. Also, it can result in

increased A&P spends and investments towards the brand resulting in margin

pressure. Maintaining market share becomes challenging in such a scenario.

Raw material prices: Rise in the raw material prices like wheat, flour, RPO, milk can

lead to pressure on the gross margins. Inability to pass on the pricing pressure to

consumers due to higher competition can result in further pressure.

Rural slowdown: Biscuit is a highly penetrated category and slowdown, particularly

in rural areas, will lead to slowing of the category growth rates.

Failure in new innovations and segments: Britannia has a strong pipeline of new

innovations and it also plans to solidify its hold in the dairy, cake, rusk and

international markets. However, failure of new launches and disappointing entry in

new segments cannot be ruled out completely.

Edelweiss Securities Limited

BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES

Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset 11

Additional Data Management

MD Varun Berry

CFO Mr. N Venkataraman

CS Mr. T.V. Thulsidass

Non Ex Chairman Mr. Nusli N Wadia

Auditor B S R & Co LLP

Holdings – Top 10* % Holding % Holding

LIC 6.64 Sbi Arbitrage 1.07

Arisaig Partner 1.51 Sbi Funds 1.07

Arisaig India 1.50 Nomura Holdings 0.95

Blackrock Inc 1.18 Vanguard 0.90

Icici Pru AMC 1.11 Fundrock Manage 0.74

*Latest public data

Recent Company Research Date Title Price Reco

20-Oct-20 Consumption volatility bumps; Result Update

3772 Buy

17-Jul-20 Turning crisis into opportunity; Result Update

3785 Buy

03-Jun-20 Cashing in on home snacking opportunity; Result Update

3785 Buy

Recent Sector Research Date Name of Co./Sector Title

04-Feb-21 Bajaj Consumer Care Well-oiled growth; Result Update

02-Feb-21 Tata Consumer Products

Structurally sound despite margin shock; Result Update

29-Jan-21 Dabur India Top-tier growth sustains; Result Update

Rating Interpretation

Source: Bloomberg, Edelweiss research

Daily Volume

Source: Bloomberg

Rating Distribution: Edelweiss Research Coverage

Buy Hold Reduce Total

Rating Distribution* 163 65 14 242

>50bn >10bn and <50bn <10bn Total

Market Cap (INR) 195 52 4 251

* stocks under review

Rating Rationale

Rating Expected absolute returns over 12 months

Buy: >15%

Hold: >15% and <-5%

Reduce: <-5%

TP5,600

TP3,261

TP3,588

2125

2820

3515

4210

4905

5600

Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 Aug-19 Feb-20 Aug-20

(IN

R)

BRIT IN Equity Buy Hold Reduce0

2

4

6

8

10

Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 Aug-19 Feb-20 Aug-20

(Mn

)

BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES

Edelweiss Securities Limited

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