Kevin M. Wilson, ChFC, PhDPresident/CEO/CIO

Dheenu Sivalingam, MBAAVP/CCO/Senior Analyst

1314 E. Superior StreetSuite 2Duluth, MN 55805

Office: 218-464-4399 Toll Free: 877-327-5062

Fax: 218-464-4397Email: info@bluewater-cap.com

www.bluewatercapitaladvisors.com

Monthly Market Review

“How To Swim With The Sharks”April 19, 2012

 

Ted A. Pavlovich, WMSVP Wealth Management

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INTRODUCTION

TED A. PAVLOVICH

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BLUE WATER’S MOVE TO 1405 MEDICAL ARTS BUILDING, 324 W. SUPERIOR ST., DULUTH MN 55802 IN MAY, 2012

KEVIN M. WILSON3

Blue Water’s NewHome

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BRIEF MONTHLY SITUATION REPORT

TED A. PAVLOVICH

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Perspective: Market Cycles Within The LT Bear Market

13 years

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Relative Valuations & Market History Serve As GuidesWhen Assessing Risk

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Three-Year Rally Is Capable Of Continuing

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S & P 500 Moving Average Indicates Short Term Trouble

OUR STOCK PICKING DISCIPLINE IN BRIEF

DHEENU V. SIVALINGAM

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The Seven Immutable Laws of Investing Always insist on a margin of safety This time is never different Be patient and wait for the fat pitch Be contrarian (market consensus often wrong) Risk is the permanent loss of capital, never a

function of volatility Be leery of leverage Never invest in something you don’t

understand11

BWCA Stock Discipline

Intrinsic Value:The actual value of a company or an asset based on an underlying perception of its true value including all aspects of the business, in terms of both tangible and intangible factors. This is generally how we pick stocks.

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Risk/Reward Evaluation is critical determinant of long-term returns

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HOW TO SWIM WITH THE SHARKS

KEVIN M. WILSON14

This Is Either A Dolphin Singing Or The Dow(Investors Need To Limit The Impact Of Volatility)

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Longer Holding Periods May Help Combat Volatility, But There Are Also Dangerous Secular Bear Markets

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Dividends Reduce Risk Over Time

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P/E Valuations Predict Returns

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Over-Bought + Over-Bullish Syndrome Precedes Losses

Blue =Syndrome

Drawdown

S & P 500

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A Market Controlled By Money Printing

LTRO

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“Helicopter Ben” Approach Will Continue, But Is Ineffective

SUMMARY & CONCLUSIONS

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KEVIN M. WILSON

-Market Sharks (Traders, Speculators) In Control Courtesy of the Fed & ECB

-European Crisis, Economic Data, & Earnings May Cause Big Doubts By Summer

-We like High Quality, Dividends, And Value Stocks As Foils To Market Volatility

-If Market Sells Off, Risk/Reward Will Be VG & Huge Opportunity Awaits

This report is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any security or commodity and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change at any time without notice. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, for its accuracy and interpretation are not guaranteed.

Investing in securities involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance should not be taken as an indication of guarantee of future performance and no representation, express or implied, is made regarding future performance.

The firm does not provide tax advice; clients should contact their attorney, accountant, or other tax adviser regarding tax matters.

Blue Water Capital Advisors, LLC is an SEC registered investment advisor. Not FDIC insured. No bank guarantee. May lose value. Not a deposit. Not insured by any federal government agency. Blue Water Capital Advisors, LLC is not affiliated with National Bank of Commerce or NATCOM Bancshares, Inc.

Disclaimer

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