May 2, 2009C h u r C h i l l D o w n s

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Fellow Racing Fan,

Welcome to the third edition of XpressBet’s Kentucky Derby Wagering Guide!

MEC, XpressBet and HRTV are pleased to offer this FREE Kentucky Derby Wagering Guide.

We hope the information contained in these pages helps you to enjoy a successful day at the races. Inside you will find everything you need to watch and wager on the Kentucky Derby.

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The Kentucky Derby is one of the most important racing days worldwide and XpressBet wants horseplayers armed with the best information available. That’s why we’ve recruited top handicappers, writers and broadcasters to examine the race—Analysis, Main Contenders, Value Plays and Wagering Strategies.

In addition to race-by-race expert commentary, you’ll also find lots of useful Stats and Trends, a handy Exotic Wagering Guide, and a host of other information.

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KENTUCKY DERBY CAPSULE

Year Winner Jockey-Trainer Days PrepFin.- Pos.¼M Pos.½M Fav.Fin ($2payoff) Combo Off PrepLoc. IntoRace IntoRace (Odds)2008 Big Brown ($6.80) Desormeaux-r. Dutrow 35 1-Florida Derby 4th- 1 ½l 6th- 2 ½l 1st (2/1)2007 street sense ($11.80) Borel-nafzger 21 2-Blue grass 18th-15l 19th-19l 1st (9/2)2006 Barbaro ($14.20) Prado-Matz 35 1-Fl Derby 5th-3 ¼ l 4th-4l 7th (5/1)2005 giacomo ($102.60) smith-shirreffs 28 4-sa Derby 18th-16l 18th-14l 7th (5/2)2004 smarty Jones ($10.20*) elliott-servis 21 1-ark Derby 2nd-1 ½l 2nd-2l 1st (4/1)2003 Funny Cide ($27.60) santos-Tagg 21 2-wood 4th-2l 3rd-2l 2nd (5/2)2002 war emblem ($43.00) espinoza-Baffert 21 1-il Derby 1st-½l 1st -1½l 7th (6/1)2001 Monarchos ($23.00) Chavez-ward 21 2-wood 13th-13l 13th-16l 5th (9/5)2000 Fusaichi Pegasus ($6.60*) Desormeaux-Drysdale 21 1-wood 15th -12l 13th-8 ¾l 1st (2/1)1999 Charismatic ($64.60) antley-lukas 14 1-lexington 7th-3 ¾l 7th-3 ½l 5th/11th (9/2-e)1998 real Quiet ($18.80) Desormeaux-Baffert 28 2-sa Derby 8th-6 3/4l 6th-8l 3rd (5/2)1997 silver Charm ($10.00) stevens-Baffert 28 2-sa Derby 6th-1 ½l 4th-2l 2nd (3/1)1996 grindstone ($13.80) Bailey-lukas 21 2-ark Derby 15th-15l 15th-13l 5th (7/2)

*denotes starting favorite

EXPERT SELECTION GRID

FLORIDaDeRbY (March 28): final 3 furlongs in :37.06, final furlong in :12.44. Quality Road set a track record (1:47.72) while obliterating the :38.08 and :12.98 closing fractions big brown posted the previous year in this race. runner-up Dunkirk came home in :36.75, but could not sustain QualityRoad’s re-bid with a :12.57 final furlong.

ILLInOIs DeRbY (april 4): final 3 furlongs in :37.07, final furlong in :12.47. Musket Man was solid with these strong come-home times, and he ran a strong second-quarter in :23.30 as the illinois Derby pace quickened on the backstretch.

WOODMeMORIaL (april 4): final 3 furlongs in :36.49, final furlong in :11.96. IWant Revenge finished as strong on the clock as any horse this spring for the final furlong. runner-up Westsidebernie finished well in :36.79.

sanTaanITaDeRbY (april 4): final 3 furlongs in :36.77,

final furlong in :12.50. Pioneerof the nile found himself on the lead. The final furlong was the slowest of any major prep winner this spring. runner-up ChocolateCandy finished best of all in :36.23 and :12.25, while third-place Mr.Hotstuff also closed well in :36.41 and :12.31.

aRkansas DeRbY (april 11): final 3 furlongs in :37.16, final furlong in :12.26. PapaClem showed a new dimension sitting off a fast pace and punched home for the win. Third and fourth-place finishers summerbird and WinWilly appeared to be closing best, but actually only ran about a half-length faster in the final three-eighths.

bLueGRass (april 11): final 3 furlongs in :35.87, final furlong in :11.94. General Quarters was phenomenal coming home with each fraction throughout his race getting faster. runner-up HoldMeback came home in a sharp :35.97 and his :11.77 final furlong was the spring’s best anywhere.

The 1-1/8 miles preps are all-important – especially when you consider that since 1986, every Kentucky Derby champion except Charismatic exited a 9-furlong final tune-up. How the horses finish late in these preps often is a key indicator as to how they

might handle the extra furlong at Churchill Downs. All fractional times are courtesy of DRF.com’s Formulator.

SEE hOw ThEY PREPby Jeremy Plonk, Horseplayerpro.com and ESPN.com analyst

Host bobneumeier Mikebattaglia Jeffsiegel JonWhite DickJerardi stevebyk GaryWest (nBC sports) (nBC sports) (hrTV) (hrTV) (Phila. Daily news) (sirius radio) (Fw star-Telegram)

First Dunkirk Pioneerof the nile Dunkirk Pioneerof the nile Quality road Quality road Quality road

second Quality road Quality road Quality road i want revenge win willy hold Me Back Dunkirk

Third Pioneerof the nile i want revenge i want revenge Quality road Friesan Fire i want revenge i want revenge

Fourth square eddie hold Me Back Mr. hot stuff Papa Clem general Quarters Mr. hot stuff west side Bernie

IWanTReVenGe

The song says: if you can make it in new York you can make it anywhere. if that’s true, IWantRevenge is a cinch to win the Derby. after all, he won the gotham by a country mile and then recovered from a disastrous start and near-mugging in the stretch to win the wood in convincing fashion. however, despite his Big apple tour-de-force, ‘revenge’ is what this horse seeks in the Derby against Pioneerof the nile—a horse who’s defeated him twice. Those were on synthetic surfaces. IWantRevenge has proven much more effective on natural footing. Did a pair of huge new York races take too much out of this son of stephen got even, or will he continue to improve and even the score against his old foes in the Derby?

QuaLITYROaD

he’s got speed and he keeps going. like in baseball where batters can’t hit what they can’t see, in horse racing it’s equally difficult to pass something you can’t catch. There aren’t any knocks against Quality Road’s smashing win in the Fountain of Youth or his definitive maiden score at aqueduct in late november. after the Florida Derby, QualityRoad suffered a quarter-crack which quickly was treated. The good news is that the problem surfaced early enough for him to heal a bit. The bad news is that it occurred at all. The Kentucky Derby is notorious for finding a chink in any horse’s armor and, so far, a quarter-crack is about the only weakness this horse has displayed while winning three of four starts.

FRIesanFIRe

looking for his fourth consecutive victory, Friesan Fire is attempting to win the Derby without having raced since March 14. That’s a difficult assignment. Traditionally, Derby runners have required more recent racing. But trainer larry Jones has saddled the runner-ups in each of the last two Kentucky Derbies—Hardspun and the ill-fated eightbelles, a filly, no less. Friesan Fire has a great running style—he stalks, pounces and widens in the lane—and he is steadily

improving. Jones says there’s no reason to doubt his colt can run a mile and one-quarter. so, if you’re buying what Jones is selling (and there’s no hard evidence to the contrary) then FriesanFire is all that and a bag of chips.

PIOneeROFTHenILe

he keeps winning, but hasn’t gotten many style points because he has pulled his rider to the front in slow-paced

races. will he ‘pull’ himself to the front in the Kentucky Derby, or will he finally get some early pace to run at? another large question some folks have about Pioneerof thenile is whether or not he will handle the Churchill Downs dirt surface. he has raced exclusively on turf and artificial surfaces in the past. will he ‘freak-out’ and run even better on dirt than he has on the fake stuff like I Want Revenge and PapaClem did? or will he regress? one thing’s for sure, Pioneerofthenile has defeated horses that have

gone on to do great things outside of California. as a May foal, Pioneerofthenile won’t actually be 3-years-old when they run the Kentucky Derby, so he has a right to continue to improve. if he was solid enough to beat high-class foes before, how good will he become with a few more weeks of development?

DunkIRk

Dunkirk has displayed talent in winning two of three lifetime starts. however, that’s not much experience for a Derby contender and he’s never won a stakes race. Dunkirk also did not race at two, the kiss of death for Derby hopefuls. no horse since apollo in 1882 has won the Derby without racing as a 2-year-old. Trends and statistics aside, Dunkirk’sability is unquestioned. he broke his maiden easily in his first start and returned to deliver an amazing performance going a mile and one-eighth while racing very wide. Finally, he finished second to QualityRoad in the Florida Derby after making a huge move on the turn. Dunkirk’s rise to stardom has been swift, but his experience is limited.

MEET ThE 2009 DERBY CONTENDERSby Johnny D.

XpressBet.com

2009kenTuCkYDeRbYFuTuReWaGeRPOOL3

Wagering Morning Final $2Will Interest LineOdds Odds Pay

i want revenge 8-1 9-2 $11.60

Quality road 6-1 6-1 $14.20

Friesan Fire 8-1 8-1 $18.80

Pioneerof the nile 10-1 9-1 $21.20

Dunkirk 8-1 11-1 $25.00

Morning Line Odds by Mike Battaglia

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DUNKIRK ShOOTS AND SCORESby Bob neumeier

NBC Sports Reporter

sTaTs&TRenDs:WIN-PLACE-SHOW(Last20years)Average Win Odds: 12.28-to-1High Win Odds: 50.30-to-1(giacomo, 2005)Low Win Odds: 2.30-to-1(Fuscaichi Pegasus, 2000)Notable: 8 of last 13 Derby winners were 6-to-1 or less.

Average Place Odds: 15.60-to-1High Place Odds: 71.60-to-1(Closing argument, 2005)Low Place Odds: .80-to-1(easy goer/entry, 1989)Notable: 7 of last 9 Derby runner-ups have been 10-to-1 or more.

Average Show Odds: 15.38-to-1High Show Odds: 86.90-to-1(Mane Minister, 1991)Low Show Odds: .80-to-1(awe inspiring/entry, 1989)Notable: 12 of last 14 Derby show horses were 10-to-1 or less.

knOWTHIs:WinningDerbyPostPositions(1900-2008) 1. 12 11. 3 2. 9 12. 3 3. 8 13. 4 4. 10 14. 2 5. 12 15. 3 6. 6 16. 3 7. 8 17. 0 8. 9 18. 1 9. 4 19. 0 10. 10 20. 2

anaLYsIs: since we also are in the throes of the nhl’s stanley Cup playoffs, let’s try and score a Florida Derby-Kentucky Derby “hat trick.” Your intrepid correspondent saw with his own two eyes sensational Florida Derby efforts by Barbaro and Big Brown, and used those observations to correctly tab and wager on both in the subsequent run for the roses. since “things happen in threes,” why not go for another gulfstream Park grad in 2009?

MaInCOnTenDeRs: here’s the dilemma – QualityRoad or Dunkirk? Dunkirk or QualityRoad? Both colts put on a sensational show at the Florida Derby and they are quite difficult to separate. QualityRoad showed a wonderfully relaxed stride in his first effort around two turns and had the gumption to hold off the hard-charging Dunkirk. The latter’s middle-move in only his third career race took your breath away, and only an incremental improvement would give trainer Todd Pletcher his elusive Derby prize after going 0-for-21 to date.

VaLuePLaYs: should QualityRoad and Dunkirk falter, then Pioneerofthenile is the most likely winner. obviously, he must answer the annoying question of synthetics-to-dirt that the lords of racing have bestowed on handicappers. actually, the price on all three of these leading contenders might be generous if the IWantRevenge bandwagon rolls into high gear. racing touts and many turf writers salivate over “troubled trips,” as IWantRevenge encountered in the wood Memorial. But he looks like the classic underlay. True, his gotham speed figure was brilliant – maybe just too fast. i sense regression for IWantRevenge at Churchill.

WaGeRInGsTRaTeGIes($100):• $40 win: DunkIRk ($40)• $20 exacta Box: DunkIRkand QuaLITYROaD ($40)• $10 exacta: DunkIRk over PIOneeROFTHenILe ($10) • $10 exacta: QuaLITYROaD over PIOneeROFTHenILe ($10)

Stats & Trends and Know This information provided by Jeremy Plonk, nBC sports Triple Crown researcher.

SELECTIONS:1. DunKirK 3. PioneeroF The nile

2. QualiTY roaD 4. sQuare eDDie

exaCTabOx: ($2 Wager) 2 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $4 3 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $12 4 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $24 5 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $40 6 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $60 7 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $84 8 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $112

exaCTaWHeeL: ($2 Wager)One Horse with All 6 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $10 7 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $12 8 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $14 9 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $16 10 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $18

TRIFeCTabOx: ($1 Wager) 3 horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $6 4 horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $24 5 horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $60 6 horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $120 7 horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $210 8 horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $336

TRIFeCTaWHeeLs: ($1 Wager)One Horse with All with All (Example: 1/All/All or All/1/All or All/All/1) 7 horse Field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $30 8 horse Field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $42 9 horse Field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $56 10 horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $72

One Horse with Two Horses with All (Example: 1/2/All or 2/1/All or 1/All/2 or 2/a All ll/1 or All/1/2 or All/2/1) 7 horse Field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $10 8 horse Field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $12 9 horse Field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $14 10 horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $16

TRIFeCTakeYs: ($1 Wager) 1 horse with 3 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $6 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4/ 2, 3, 4) 1 horse with 4 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $12 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5/ 2, 3, 4, 5) 1 horse with 5 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $20 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) 1 horse with 6 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $30 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) 1 horse with 7 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $42 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8)

suPeRFeCTabOx: ($1 Wager) 4 horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $24 5 horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $120 6 horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $360

suPeRFeCTaWHeeLs: ($1 Wager)One Horse with All with All with All 7 horse Field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $120 8 horse Field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $210 9 horse Field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $336 10 horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $504 (Example: 1/All/All/All or All/1/All/All or All/All/1/All or All/ All/ All/1)

One Horse with Two Horses with All with All 7 horse Field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $40 8 horse Field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $60 9 horse Field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $84 10 horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $112 (Example: 1/ 2/ All/ All or 2/ 1/ All/ All or 1/ All/ All/ 2 or 2/ All/ All/ 1

or All/ All/ 1/ 2 or All/ All/ 2/ 1)

suPeRFeCTakeYs: ($1 Wager) 1 horse with 3 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $6 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4/2, 3, 4/2, 3, 4) 1 horse with 4 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $24 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5/2, 3, 4, 5/2, 3, 4, 5) 1 horse with 5 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $60 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6/2, 3, 4, 5, 6/2, 3, 4, 5, 6) 1 horse with 6 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $120 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) 1 horse with 7 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $210 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8)

KentuckyDerbyexoticwagersusuallyproduceheftypayoffs.

UsethishandyExoticWageringCharttohelpplanyourattack.

Exotic wageringChart

KentucKy Derby Wagering guiDe uPDatesavailable Online Daily beginning tuesday, april 28

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SINCE whEN IS wINNING SO BAD?by Mike Battaglia

NBC Sports Racing Analyst

sTaTs&TRenDs:EXACTA(Last20years)Average $2 Exacta Payoff: $818.99High $2 Exacta Payoff: $9,814.80(giacomo-Closing argument, 2005)Low $2 Exacta Payoff: $15.20(sunday silence-easy goer, 1989)Notable: 4 of the last 6 exactas have returned $142 or less.

TRIFECTA(WagerAvailableLast15Years)Average $2 Trifecta Payoff: $13,652.16High $2 Trifecta Payoff: $133,134.80 (giacomo-Closing argument-afleet alex, 2005)Low $2 Trifecta Payoff: $205.40(silver Charm-Captain Bodgit-Free house, 1997)Notable: 4 of the last 8 Derby trifectas produced either five or six-digit $2 payoffs.

SUPERFECTA(WagerAvailableLast14Years)Average $1 Superfecta Payoff: $94,522.95High $1 Superfecta Payoff: $864,253.50 (giacomo-Closing argument-afleet alex-Don’t get Mad, 2005)Low $1 Superfecta Payoff: $350.00(silver Charm-Captain Bodgit-Free house-Pulpit, 1997)Average Odds of Fourth-place finishers: 20.50-to-1Notable: 8 of the last 10 Derby superfectas have produced five or six-digit $1 payoffs.

knOWTHIs:Bob Baffert needs one more Triple Crown-race win to tie Max hirsch and “Ben” Jones with nine. “sunny Jim” Fitzsimmons and D. wayne lukas have the most with 13 each.

anaLYsIs: it seems like the more Pioneerofthenile wins, the less respect he gets. he is clearly the best horse on the west coast this year, and several of the horses he has beaten have gone elsewhere to post impressive wins. IWantRevenge, PapaClem, ChocolateCandy and advice all have finished behind him at some point, and all have gone on to win major preps at other tracks. i am aware that he has never run on dirt, but his pedigree suggests that he will handle the move. Trainer Bob Baffert should have him ready to go with garrett gomez opting for him over the more hyped Dunkirk.

MaInCOnTenDeRs: obviously, QualityRoad is an exceptional horse. he has a high cruising speed and was extremely impressive in the Florida Derby. he is the one to beat. IWantRevenge seems to be getting better with every race. To overcome all that trouble and still win the wood makes him a must-use for the gimmicks. Dunkirk also has a ton of talent, but the main drawback with him is the fact that he has only had three races. FriesianFire rates high on a lot of lists, but he has a few things going against him: The seven-week layoff; the fact that he has never been past a mile and one-sixteenth; and the fact that his best race was in the slop. i will throw out FriesanFire unless it rains.

VaLuePLaYs: HoldMeback should go off at big odds. he won the lane’s end off of a four-month layoff and may have bounced a bit in the Blue grass. Three straight races at a mile and one-eighth should have him coming into the Derby in top condition. ChocolateCandy appears to be moving in the right direction. he closed well in the santa anita Derby, but still doesn’t figure to get much respect at the windows.

WaGeRInGsTRaTeGIes($100):• $20 win: PIOneeROFTHenILe ($20)• $10 exacta Box: PIOneeROFTHenILe with QuaLITYROaD, IWanTReVenGe and DunkIRk. ($60)• $5 exacta Box: PIOneeROFTHenILewith HOLDMebaCk and CHOCOLaTeCanDY ($20)

SELECTIONS:1. PioneeroF The nile 3. i wanT reVenge

2. QualiTY roaD 4. holD Me BaCK

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FLORIDA DERBY IS KEY TO KENTUCKY VERSION by Jeff siegel HRTV Analyst

sTaTs&TRenDs:LastMajorPrepWinnerstoWinDerbyArkansas Derby: smarty Jones (2004)Blue Grass: strike the gold (1991)Florida Derby: Big Brown (2008)Fountain of Youth: Thunder gulch (1995)Illinois Derby: war emblem (2002)Lexington: Charismatic (1999)Louisiana Derby: grindstone (1996)Santa Anita Derby: sunday silence (1989)Lane’s End: lil e Tee (1992)Wood Memorial: Fusaichi Pegasus (2000)

ArkansasDerbyAlumniinRecentDerbies2008 gayego 17th

2007 Curlin 3rd

2006 steppenwolfer 3rd

2005 afleet alex 3rd

2004 smarty Jones 1st

SirestoProduceRecentKentuckyDerbyWinnersYear Sire Sire’s Longest Stakes Win

2008 Boundary 6 F / g32007 street Cry 1-1/4 M / g12006 Dynaformer 1-1/4 M / g22005 holy Bull 1-1/4 M / g12004 elusive Quality 1 M (T) / g32003 Distorted humor 1 M / g32002 our emblem placed 1M / g12001 Maria’s Mon 1-1/16 M / g12000 Mr. Prospector 6 F / g21999 summer squall 1-3/16 M / g11998 Quiet american 1-1/16 M / g3

knOWTHIs:WorstFinalPrepFinishestoWintheDerby(1906-present)12th stone street 19085th iron liege 19575th Count Turf 19515th Doneraile 19135th Pink star 1907

anaLYsIs: in evaluating this year’s key Kentucky Derby prep races, i’ve concluded that the Florida Derby clearly was the strongest (and fastest) of the lot, and thus believe that the first jewel in america’s Triple Crown will be won by a horse exiting that race. But which one should i pick? QualityRoad may enjoy an advantage with the excellent use of his tactical speed, and his 111 Beyer figure – on the heels of the 113 he earned in winning the Fountain of Youth stakes – illustrates how extremely talented he is. But Dunkirk, second-best to QualityRoad at gulfstream Park with a less-than-ideal trip, actually galloped out stronger than his rival and could easily turn the tables in what will be only his fourth career start.

MaInCOnTenDeRs: IWantRevenge will have plenty of support, and deservedly so. Tons the best despite a nightmarish journey in the wood Memorial, the son of stephen got even shrugged off a poor start and traffic trouble at the furlong pole like water off his back, and there’s no doubt he’ll enjoy the Derby’s 10-furlong distance. But the competition was weak, and both QualityRoad and Dunkirk likely would have done the same, with or without that trouble. FriesanFire has credentials – he’ll handle dirt and he’ll handle slop – but the seven-week layoff is a major concern. and Pioneerofthenile looks appealing on paper, but he’s simply not that good.

VaLuePLaYs: IWantRevenge’s troubled trip in the wood Memorial is well documented and will adversely affect his value on the tote. if it rains, FriesanFire may deserve an increased look. Mr.Hotstuff, a closing third into the teeth of slow fractions in the santa anita Derby, is just beginning to realize what always has been expected of him.

WaGeRInGsTRaTeGIes($100):• $20 win: DunkIRk ($20)• $5 Trifecta Key: DunkIRk over QuaLITYROaD, IWanTReVenGe, MR.HOTsTuFF ($30)• $10 exacta Box: DunkIRk and QuaLITYROaD ($20)• $1 Trifecta Box: DunkIRk, QuaLITYROaD, IWanTReVenGe and MR.HOTsTuFF ($24)• $3 exacta Box: QuaLITYROaD and MR.HOTsTuFF ($6)

SELECTIONS:1. DunKirK 3. i wanT reVenge

2. QualiTY roaD 4. Mr. hoT sTuFF

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‘NILE hAS wINNING STYLEby Jon white

HRTV and Santa Anita Analyst

sTaTs&TRenDs:HighestCareerBeyerSpeedFiguresHeadingintoKentuckyDerby(winnerslistedinbold)2008 Bob Black Jack 109 16th

2007 streetsense 108 1st2005 Bellamy road 120 5th

2004 read the Footnotes 113 7th

2003 empire Maker 111 2nd

2002 Waremblem 112 1st

2001 Millennium wind 114 11th

2000 FusaichiPegasus 111 1st

1999 Charismatic 108 1st

excellent Meeting 108 5th

general Challenge 108 11th

1998 indian Charlie 112 3rd

1997 silverCharm 110 1st

Free house 110 3rd

1996 unbridled’s song 114 5th

1995 serena’s song 114 16th

1994 holy Bull 115 12th

1993 Diazo 109 5th

1992 Lile.Tee 107 1st

Pine Bluff 107 5th

Devil his Due 107 12th

BirthplaceofDerbyWinners 101 – Kentucky 6 – Florida 4 – Virginia 3 – California 3 – Tennessee 2 – new Jersey, Pennsylvania, Texas,

Canada, england

knOWTHIs: Color-CodedLast Gray to win: giacomo (2005)Last Roan to win: winning Colors (1988)Last Bay to win: Big Brown (2008)Last Chestnut to win: smarty Jones (2004)Last Dark Bay/Brown to win: street sense

(2007)

anaLYsIs: The way i see it, Pioneerofthenile will be the one draped in roses, making it four Kentucky Derby victories for trainer Bob Baffert (who enters the hall of Fame this year). not only that, i believe Pioneerofthenile might sweep the Triple Crown. he has a better resume going into the Kentucky Derby than past Baffert trainees silver Charm and real Quiet, in that they lost the san Felipe stakes and santa anita Derby before winning the Kentucky Derby and nearly sweeping the Triple Crown. Pioneerofthenile won both the san Felipe and santa anita Derby. also, garrett gomez has opted to ride Pioneerofthenile over Dunkirk. That’s a strong endorsement right there. Pioneerofthenile has defeated 13 stakes winners, including Kentucky Derby candidates IWantRevenge (twice), ChocolateCandy (twice) and PapaClem. Compare that to Dunkirk, who has defeated only one stakes winner (stately Character). Dunkirk also didn’t race at 2. There have been 126 straight Kentucky Derby winners who did race at 2 since apollo in 1882.

MaInCOnTenDeRs: santa anita Derby winner Pioneerofthenile, wood Memorial winner IWantRevenge, Florida Derby winner QualityRoad, arkansas Derby winner PapaClem and louisiana Derby winner FriesanFire have the look of major players.

VaLuePLaYs: stretch-runner ChocolateCandy is dangerous after finishing second in the santa anita Derby despite a lack of pace.

WaGeRInGsTRaTeGIes($100):• $40 win: PIOneeeROFTHenILe ($40)• $8 exacta Box: PIOneeeROFTHenILeand IWanTReVenGe ($16)• $8 exacta Box: PIOneeeROFTHenILe and QuaLITYROaD ($16)• $6 exacta: PIOneeeROFTHenILe over PaPaCLeM ($6)• $6 exacta: PIOneeeROFTHenILe overCHOCOLaTeCanDY ($6)• $4 exacta Part-wheel: PIOneeeROFTHenILe over DeseRTPaRTY, FRIesanFIRe, GeneRaLQuaRTeRs and MuskeTMan ($16)

SELECTIONS:1. PioneeeroF The nile 3. QualiTY roaD

2. i wanT reVenge 4. PaPa CleM

Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin April 28 xpressBet.com 1-866-88xPRESS

DERBY’S A ‘QUALITY ROAD’by Dick Jerardi

Philadelphia Daily News Columnist

sTaTs&TRenDs:2008DerbyHandleTotalsWin, Place, Show: $47.9 millionExacta: $22.6 millionTrifecta: $27.0 millionSuperfecta: $9.0 millionPick Four: $1.7 millionOaks/Derby Double: $2.0 millionPick Six: $676,018Super High Five: $331,928

Lowest-PricedDerbyFavorites(Last20Years).80-to-1 easy goer/awe inspiring entry

(1989, 2nd/3rd).90-to-1 arazi (1992, 8th)1.80-to-1 Point given (2001, 5th)2.10-to-1 summer squall (1990, 2nd)2.20-to-1 holy Bull (1994, 12th)

Highest-PricedFavoritesinDerbyHistory6.00-to-1 – harlan’s holiday (2002, 7th)5.50-to-1 – sweetnorthernsaint (2006, 7th)4.90-to-1 – street sense (2007, 1st)4.80-to-1 – general Challenge/excellent

Meeting (1999, 5th)4.40-to-1 – Prairie Bayou (1993, 2nd)4.10-to-1 – smarty Jones (2004, 1st)

Highest-PricedDerbySuperfectaFinishers(Last22Years)86.90-to-1 Mane Minister (1991, 3rd)71.60-to-1 Closing argument (2005, 2nd)65.80-to-1 Video ranger (1990, 4th)50.30-to-1 giacomo (2005, 1st)41.70-to-1 limehouse (2004, 4th)

knOWTHIs: street sense is the only horse out of 16 since 2006 to go from a race over an artificial surface to the Derby winner’s circle.hard spun (2nd 2007) is the only one of the group to finish better than 5th.

anaLYsIs: This is a far better group than the one Big Brown overwhelmed a year ago. That said one horse, because of running style, big speed figures and consistent excellence, jumps off the page. By running style, QualityRoad reminds one of smarty Jones. That the colt is by elusive Quality, smarty’s sire, only adds to the comparison. smarty’s trainer John servis sees the similarities and said, in admiration, nobody really knows how good QualityRoad might be yet. The dominating wins in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby (when the colt re-broke in the stretch to fend off that big rally by Dunkirk) told a story. That this Derby may have little quality early speed should only enhance QualityRoad’s chances

MaInCOnTenDeRs: Dunkirk cost $3.7 million. The colt may be worth all of that. and more. To run past some really good horses around the turn in the Florida Derby was an indication of the depth of the colt’s talent. That he couldn’t go by QualityRoad says more about QualityRoad than Dunkirk. FriesanFire got better in each of his three stakes wins this winter at Fair grounds, capped by his big score over the sloppy track in the louisiana Derby. IWantRevenge overcame lengths of trouble to win the wood Memorial and is a new horse on dirt.

VaLuePLaYs: There is a chance QualityRoad could be value because IWantRevenge may be overbet in relation to his true chances. Pioneerofthenile, with popular three-time Derby-winning trainer Bob Baffert, is also likely to get overbet. live superfecta horses, with certain double-digit odds, include strong closers like rebel stakes winner WinWilly, illinois Derby winner MusketMan and Blue grass stakes winner GeneralQuarters.

WaGeRInGsTRaTeGIes($100):• $40 exacta: QuaLITYROaD over WInWILLY ($40).• $1 superfecta Key: QuaLITYROaD over WInWILLY, MuskeTMan, GeneRaLQuaRTeRs, PaPaCLeM and FRIesanFIRe ($60).

SELECTIONS:1. QualiTY roaD 3. Friesan Fire

2. win willY 4. general QuarTers

Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin April 28 xpressBet.com 1-866-88xPRESS

‘09 wINNER wILL TOP BEST GROUP IN YEARS by steve Byk At the Races with Steve Byk (Sirius Radio) Host

sTaTs&TRenDs:FastestDerbyRunnings1:59-2/5 – secretariat (1973)1:59-4/5 – Monarchos (2001)2:00 – northern Dancer (1964)2:00-1/5 – spend a Buck (1985)2:00-2/5 – Decidedly (1962)

Wire-to-WireDerbyWinnersLast50Years Field OpeningYear Winner Wagering Size Half-Mile

2002 war emblem 9th choice 18 :471988 winning Colors 2nd choice 17 :46-4/51985 spend a Buck 2nd choice 13 :45-4/51976 Bold Forbes 2nd choice 9 :45-4/51972 riva ridge favorite 16 :47-3/51966 Kauai King favorite 15 :46-1/5

Pre-DerbyRecordsofRecentDerby-WinningTrainers2008 rick Dutrow 0: 0-0-02007 Carl nafzger 2: 1-0-02006 Michael Matz 0: 0-0-02005 John shirreffs 0: 0-0-02004 John servis 0: 0-0-02003 Barclay Tagg 0: 0-0-02002 Bob Baffert 11: 2-1-22001 John ward 2: 0-0-02000 neil Drysdale 0: 0-0-01999 D. wayne lukas 33: 3-0-41998 Bob Baffert 3: 1-1-0

knOWTHIs:DerbyWinnersWhoBrokeTheirMaidensas3-Year-Olds(1933-present)May 6, 1933 Broker’s Tip Feb. 8, 1967 Proud ClarionFeb. 3, 2001 MonarchosJan. 17, 1958 Tim TamJan. 12, 1965 lucky DebonairJan. 5, 1940 gallahadionJan. 3, 1949 PonderJan. 2, 2000 Fusaichi Pegasus

anaLYsIs: The 135th Kentucky Derby has one of the better casts of sophomores in many years. This season’s Derby run-up has produced several distinguished, multiple-prep winners who arrive in louisville with the kind of triple-digit Beyer speed Figures that typically earmark rose-blanket recipients. of those, possible favorite QualityRoad sticks out as the most logical winner of Derby 135 from standpoints of pace, speed and intangeables.

MaInCOnTenDeRs: California synthetic star Pioneerofthenile looks the part of a Derby winner if he takes to the dirt under garrett gomez. IWantRevenge and 19-year-old pilot Joe Talamo overcame the kind of trouble in the wood that should serve as ideal experience in a 20-horse field. Dunkirk may be a 2009 version of Curlin–light on experience but talented. FriesanFire has been away since his louisiana Derby win, and will try to move his connections into the Derby winner’s circle after back-to-back second-place finishes with eight Belles and hard spun. DesertParty is bred for classic success and may be godolphin’s best chance yet for a Derby win.

VaLuePLaYs: HoldMeback will be discounted because of his darkened dirt form from last year’s remsen, but he is a dangerous late runner under three-time Derby-winning rider, Kent Desormeaux. Mr.Hotstuff, a full-brother of Travers winner Colonel John, is developing rapidly, almost as fast as Pioneerofthenile, and is certain to be 30-1 or more. with a repeat of his arkansas Derby effort, summerbird could stun the superfecta as one of the longest prices on the board.

WaGeRInGsTRaTeGIes($100):• $10 win and Place: HOLDMebaCk ($20)• $3 Trifecta Key: QuaLITYROaD over IWanTReVenGe and HOLDMebaCk over IWanTReVenGe, HOLDMebaCk, MR.HOTsTuFF, DeseRTPaRTY, DunkIRk, MuskeTMan, FRIesanFIRe, PIOneeROFTHenILe, WesTsIDebeRnIe, CHOCOLaTeCanDY and suMMeRbIRD ($60)• $1 Trifecta Key: IWanTReVenGe, HOLDMebaCk over QuaLITYROaD over IWanTReVenGe, HOLDMebaCk, MR.HOTsTuFF, DeseRTPaRTY, DunkIRk, MuskeTMan, FRIesanFIRe, PIOneeROFTHenILe, WesTsIDebeRnIe, CHOCOLaTeCanDY and suMMeRbIRD ($20)

SELECTIONS:1. QualiTY roaD 3. i wanT reVenge

2. holD Me BaCK 4. Mr. hoT sTuFF

Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin April 28 xpressBet.com 1-866-88xPRESS

FLORIDA SUN TO ShINE ON KENTUCKY by gary west Fort Worth Star-Telegram Columnist

sTaTs&TRenDs:NoAprilPreps40 Derby starters since 1920 have gone without a prep in april. They own a 40: 2-2-2 record.Win: Big Brown (2008), needles (1956)Place: hard spun (2007), staretor (1941)Show: Perfect Drift (2002), Candy spots

(1963)

kenTuCkYDeRbYHIsTORYFloridaDerbyAlumniinRecentDerbies2008 Big Brown 1st

2008 smooth air 11th

2007 imawildandcrazyguy 4th

2007 scat Daddy 18th

2007 stormello 19th 2006 Barbaro 1st

2006 Flashy Bull 14th

2006 sharp humor 19th

knOWTHIs: Blow-outAbility Largest PriorYear Derby Winner Win Margin2008 Big Brown 12-3/4 lengths2007 street sense 10 lengths2006 Barbaro 8-1/2 lengths2005 giacomo 10 lengths2004 smarty Jones 15 lengths2003 Funny Cide 14-3/4 lengths2002 war emblem 10-3/4 lengths

ModernMismatches Races Decided Decade Avg. Derby Win Margin By Length Or Less2000s 3.19 lengths 11990s 1.39 lengths 51980s 2.05 lengths 41970s 2.55 lengths 11960s 1.15 lengths 61950s 1.16 lengths 51940s 3.99 lengths 1

anaLYsIs: injuries have knocked much of the speed out of the Kentucky Derby. The Derby in Kentucky could look very much like a certain Derby in Florida, where QualityRoad stalked an overmatched upstart in moderate fractions, disposed of the pacesetter to assume the lead after three-quarters of a mile, turned back a bold challenger in mid-stretch and then, well, and then he cruised, completing the final three-eighths in :37.06 while winning with aplomb and ease. Yes, there’s the quarter crack. But with two recent workouts that appear to have been outstanding, QualityRoad will enter the Kentucky Derby looking very sunny.

MaInCOnTenDeRs: Dunkirk, that bold challenger at gulfstream, sparkled around the second turn, with an internal half-mile in :47.35, and he came home in :36.71. That ability to run the turn usually pays dividends in Kentucky, and he’s eligible for improvement. IWantRevenge was nothing less than sensational in the wood Memorial, overcoming a troubled start and advancing in traffic to power his way through a final three-eighths in :36.37. his gotham was equally sensational, and so the worry is that he’s ready to step back. Pioneerofthenile defeated IWantRevenge in California, and if he improves as some have when he makes the synthetic-to-dirt move, he’s going to be a handful at Churchill.

VaLuePLaYs: Westsidebernie couldn’t quite stay with IWantRevenge in the stretch at aqueduct. still, ‘bernie ran the final three-eighths in :36.64. with three races at 1 1/8 miles, he looks like a horse who does his best work in the stretch. Mr.Hotstuff finished with energy and galloped out so strongly in both the sham and the santa anita Derby that he looks as if he could take another step forward with the Derby’s classic distance.

WaGeRInGsTRaTeGIes($100):• $5 Trifecta Part-wheel: QuaLITYROaD and DunkIRk, first and second, over IWanTReVenGe, WesTsIDebeRnIe, PIOneeROFTHenILe and MR.HOTsTuFF ($40) • $5 Trifecta Part-wheel: QuaLITYROaD and DunkRIk, first and third, with IWanTReVenGe, WesTsIDebeRnIe, PIOneeROFTHenILe and MR.HOTsTuFF in the middle ($40)• $10 exacta Part-wheel: QuaLITYROaD over WesTsIDebeRnIe and MR.HOTsTuFF ($20)

SELECTIONS:1. QualiTY roaD 3. i wanT reVenge

2. DunKirK 4. wesT siDe Bernie

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