Keep on the Sunny Side: An Examination of the Values of the Simon-Ehrlich Bet

Global Foundations

Emelia C. Enquist

Paul R. Ehrlich

Ecologist

Malthusian

Pessimist The Population Bomb (1968)

http://www.growthbusters.org/2012/11/paul-ehrlich-post-election-thoughts/

Julian L. Simon

Economist

Cornucopian

Optimist “Resources, Population, Environment:

An Oversupply of False Bad News”(Science magazine, 1980)

http://www.libertariansforum.com/cgi-bin/freedom/YaBB.pl?num=1327788388

The Bet

“In October 1980 the Ehrlich group bet $1,000 on five metals—chrome, copper, nickel, tin and tungsten—in quantities that each cost $200 in their current market. A futures contract was drawn up obligating Simon to sell Ehrlich, Harte and Holdren these same quantities of the metals 10 years later, but at 1980s prices. If the 1990s combined prices turned out to be higher than $1,000, Simon would pay them the difference in cash. If prices fell, they would pay him” (Tierney 1).

The Outcome

Ehrlich’s group’s metals decreased in value

Simon won…but did he?

Ehrlichian Values

Positives “We apparently have reached a point now where we must

reassess our approach to the basic necessities of life. In addition to the unprecedentedly concurrent problems of unemployment and inflation, there are new problems relating to environmental pollution and the rapid deterioration of natural systems throughout the world, the realization that supplies of fossil fuels are inherently exhaustible, and the further realization that there is a growing scarcity of agricultural land and other natural resources” (Grove 616).

Negatives “….nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world

death rate” (Tierney 3).

Proved himself wrong

Popularity

Simonian Values

Positives "There's nothing wrong with worrying about new

problems--we need problems so we can come up with solutions that leave us better off than if they'd never come up in the first place" (Tierney 4).

Negatives Too trusting?

Popularity

So what?

Bibliography

AAG Center for Global Geography Education. “Malthusian Theory of Population.” Accessed April 21, 2013. http://cgge.aag.org/PopulationandNaturalResources1e/CF_ PopNatRes_Jan10/CF_PopNatRes_Jan108.htmlCenter for Conservative Biology. “Ecofables/ecoscience: Countering the distortion of environmental science; The two Simon bets.” Accessed April 21, 2013. http://www.stanford.edu/group/CCB/Pubs/Ecofablesdocs/thebet.htm

Grove, Ernest W. “Present and Prehistoric Problems of Natural Resources.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 61 (1979): 612-619.

Kiel, Katherine A., Victor A. Matheson, and Kevin Golembiewski. “Luck or Skill? An Examination of the Ehrlich – Simon Bet.” 2009.

Simcox, David E. “The Population Explosion by Paul Ehrlich: Ann Ehrlich.” Population and Environment 12 (1990): 159-161.

Simon, Julian L. “Resources, Population, Environment: An Oversupply of False Bad News.” Science 208 (1980): 1431-1437.

Fitzpatrick, Thomas M. and Karen Spohn. “A 25th Anniversary Redux of the Simon and Ehrlich Global Sustainability Wager.” Journal of International Business and Cultural Studies (2005): 1-7.

Tierney, John. “Betting on the Planet.” The New York Times, December 2, 1990.