Resilience  Systems  Engineering?  Engineering  Resilient  Systems?  

Why  is  Systems  Engineering  Cri4cal  to  Building  Resilience?  

•  Systems  engineering  is    –  “how  to  take  a  systems  approach”  

•  Discipline  (applying  proven  prac4ces)    –  is  cri4cal  to  mission  success  and  safety  –  Integrates  parts  into  a  whole  >  sum  of  parts  

•  Where  scale  (size,  complexity,  stakeholders,  risks)  –  Is  large  –  Challenges  intellectual  manageability  –  “Complex  Systems  Almost  Always  Fail  in  Complex  Ways”    

•  Totally  dis4nct  from  (but  complementary  to)  –  Tradi4onal  engineering  disciplines  –  Project  management  –  Program  management  –  Planning  

Systems  Engineering  Called  For  No    •  Intellectually  manageable  by  

small  unified  group  with  a  shared  vision  

•  Does  not  cross  jurisdic4ons  •  Negligible  threats  to  mission  or  

safety  •  Probabilis4c  paQerns  for  

stressors  •  Minor  unknowns  

Yes  •  Complex  in  terms  of  

–  Size  (parts,  procedures)  –  Dura4on  –  Scope  –  Risks  –  Conflic4ng  stakeholders  

•  Significant  risks  with  serious  consequences  to  both  mission  and  stakeholders  

•  High  consequence/low  frequency  for  incidents  suggests  random,  unpredictable    behavior  (Black  Swan)  

•  Major  show-­‐stopping  unknowns  and  uncertain4es  

Resilience  Systems  Engineering  

•  For  “works”  vulnerable  to  disrup4ons  •  Allocates  100%  of  risk  to    •  Components  •  Stakeholders  (residual)    

•  Resilience  cycle  •  Avoid,  survive,  recover    •  to  avoid  beQer  understood  risks  

How  to  Engineer  a  Resilient  System?  

•  Specify  requirements  that  reflect  de-­‐conflicted  results  of  value  for  all  cri4cal  stakeholders  

•  Architected  model  that  depicts    –  Components  with  allocated  requirements  and  risks  –  Full  life  cycle  –  Clear  boundaries  –  Interfaces    

•  Between  components  •  External  en44es  

•  Defined,  con4nuously  improving  processes  based  on  best  prac4ces  •  Path  forward  informed  by  product  and  project  risks  

–  Including  stressing  “discrup4ons”  (environmental,  human)  •  Verify  and  validate  over  life  cycle  for  sustained  and  improved  

resilience  

RSE  Disciplines  &  Prac4ces  •  Requirements  –  Stakeholder  expecta4ons  at  system  level  •  Architecture  –  Total  system  or  system  of  systems  •  Interface  management  –  Systems,  components,  ins4tu4ons  •  Risk  management  –  At  system  level,  uncertain4es  •  Management  of  changes  –  Across  interfaces  •  Performance  management  –  Total  system  •  Decision  making  –  System  level,  win-­‐win  •  Leadership  –  Enabling  culture,  high  performance  teaming  •  Con4nuous  Process  Improvement  

Calls  for  Resilience  Systems  Engineering  

•  Sponsoring  development  of  frameworks  –  Interna4onal  Council  on  Systems  Engineering  (INCOSE)  –  The  Infrastructure  Security  Partnership  (TISP)  

•  Katrina  –  IPET  major  finding  

•  Flood  Protec4on  System  a  system  in  name  only  •  Macondo  Well  –  Na4onal  Academy  of  Engineering  (NAE)  and  the  Na4onal  Research  Council  (NRC  

Of  par4cular  concern  is  an  apparent  lack  of  a  systems  approach  that  would  integrate  the  mul4plicity  of  factors  poten4ally  affec4ng  the  safety  of  the  well,  monitor  the  overall  margins  of  safety,  and  assess  the  various  decisions  from  perspec4ves  of  well  integrity  and  safety.  

The  Results  are  Different  Current  Approach  •  Con4nuing  surprise  

from  unimagined  consequences  

•  Address  selected  risks  •  Projects  aligned  with  

poli4cs  and  funding  sources  

•  Poli4cs  trumps  safety  •  Solu4ons  planned  as  

finite  deliverables  •  Clashes  in  vision  not  

iden4fied  or  resolved  

Systems  Approach  •  Elicit  all  posi4ve  and  nega4ve  

outcomes  without  regard  to  predictability  

•  Address  100%  of  risk  (holis4c)  •  Solu4ons  aligned  with  impacted  

stakeholders  •  Safety  held  paramount  •  Solu4ons  architected  and  engineered  

with  robust,  life  cycle  capabili4es  •  Improvement  con4nuous    and  built-­‐in  •  Achieves  shared  vision  through  high  

performance  teaming  

Resilience  Systems  Engineering  

Key  Documents  •  IPET  -­‐  Final  IPET  Volumes    

–  Volume  I.  Execu4ve  Summary  and  Overview  (Main  Text  &  Appendices)    –  hQps://ipet.wes.army.mil/NOHPP/_Post-­‐Katrina/(IPET)%20Interagency%20Performance

%20Evalua4on%20TaskForce/Reports/IPET%20Final%20Report/Volume%20I/Volume%20I%20FINAL%2023Jun09%20mh.pdf  

•  ASCE  -­‐  So,  You  Live  Behind  a  Levee!  What  You  Should  KNow  to  Protect  Your  Home  and  Loved  Ones  from  Floods  –  hHp://www.asce.org/Product.aspx?id=2147485994    

 •   ArchitecVng  Resilient  Systems:  Accident  Avoidance  and  Survival  and  

Recovery  ...  By  ScoQ  Jackson  –  hQp://www.amazon.com/Architec4ng-­‐Resilient-­‐Systems-­‐Disrup4ons-­‐Engineering/dp/

0470405031/ref=sr_1_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1300541573&sr=1-­‐2    •  The  Black  Swan:  Second  EdiVon:  The  Impact  of  the  Highly  Improbable  

–  hQp://www.amazon.com/Architec4ng-­‐Resilient-­‐Systems-­‐Disrup4ons-­‐Engineering/dp/0470405031/ref=sr_1_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1300541573&sr=1-­‐2    

•  NaVonal  Commission  on  the  Deepwater  Horizon  Oil  Spill  and  Offshore  Drilling    –  hQp://www.oilspillcommission.gov/