Kazakhstan National Opinion Poll English Version Kazakhstan... · IRI, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization Kazakhstan National Public Opinion Survey, February 2011 2 Methodology

Kazakhstan National Opinion PollConducted: February 17-28, 2011

International Republican Institute

Baltic Surveys Ltd. / The Gallup Organization

with funding from the

National Endowment for Democracy

1

IRI, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization Kazakhstan National Public Opinion Survey, February 2011 2

Methodology

• This survey was designed, coordinated and analyzed by Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization on behalf of the International Republican Institute. Field work was carried out by the Institute for Comparative Social Research – Kazakhstan.

• The national representative survey was carried out from February 17-28, 2011. The eligibility criteria was based on age (18 years and older). A sample of 1,521 Kazakh participants were interviewed face-to-face in their homes.

• The sample design was a multi-stage probability sample.– Stage one: the sample was stratified into 16 regions.– Stage two: the sample was further stratified into rural, urban and metropolitan sampling units.– Stage three: primary sampling units (PSUs) were described.

• The closest birthday rule was used for selection of the respondent. The households were selected using the random route method.

• The sample was distributed at the regional level, in rural and urban areas, in all 16 regions of Kazakhstan.

• The response rate was 68 percent.• The margin of error for the survey does not exceed plus or minus 2.5 percent with a confidence level of

95 percent.• One hundred thirty-two interviewers worked on the study, on average completing 8-13 interviews in one

PSU. The interviews were conducted in Kazakh, Russian and Uzbek languages.• Due to rounding, charts may not add to 100 percent.

Methodology

Region Oblasts and administrative districts

North Kostanai, Pavlodar, North Kazakhstan oblast

South Almaty city, Almaty oblast, Zhambyl, Kyzylorda, South Kazakhstan oblast

East East Kazakhstan oblastWest Aktyubinsk, Atyrau, West Kazakhstan oblast, Mangystau

Center Astana city, Akmola, Karaganda 3


Survey Demographics

Male 47% Female 53%Urban 60% Rural 40%

Age18 to 29 31%30 to 49 41%Over 50 28%

EducationPrimary 1%Secondary Unfinished 3%Secondary 26%Vocational 30%Higher Unfinished 12%University, higher 27%

Monthly Household IncomeUp to 25,000 tenge 21%25,001 to 40,000 tenge 19%40,001 to 60,000 tenge 21%More than 60,000 tenge 24%Don’t know/no response 16%

EthnicityKazakh 53%Russian 33%Other 13%

Language of the InterviewRussian 85%Kazakh 13%Uzbek 2%


Region


Are you currently employed?

Full-time50%

Part-time5%

Seasonal/occasional5%

Not working40%


If you are not employed, what is your status?Respondents indicating that they are not working; N=615

Student19%

Retired36%

Housewife/on maternity leave

14%

Unemployed, looking for a job

19%

Unemployed, not looking for a job

10%

No response/don't know2%


21 21 2119

17 18 19

0

5

10

15

20

25

August 2008;N=611

February 2009;N=712

May 2009;N=654

October 2009;N=636

April 2010;N=625

October 2010;N=608

February 2011;N=615

Unemployed, looking for a job

If you are not employed, what is your status?Respondents indicating that they are not working

(responses in percentage)

SOCIAL INDICATORS INDEX

9


Generally speaking, would you say that things in Kazakhstan are headed in the right direction or the wrong

direction?(responses in percentage)

79

90

6772 76 74 77

83 84

125

18 14 12 11 10 6 6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

July 2004 September2005

August2008

February2009

May 2009 October2009

April 2010 October2010

February2011

Right Direction Wrong Direction


In the past year, has your personal financial situation improved, worsened or stayed the same?


2421 20

23

2630 3131 33

3824

25

1821

43 4339

5047

50

44

1 3 3 3 3 3 4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

August 2008 February 2009 May 2009 October 2009 April 2010 October 2010 February 2011

Better Worse Stayed the same No response/don't know


In the next year, do you expect the economic situation in Kazakhstan to get better, worse or stay the same?


44

33

46

5450

53

41

1723

14

107 8

12

27 3230

26

33

2731

12 12 10

11 11 1216

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


Better Worse Same No response/don't know


How would you evaluate the income of your household?

12 12 11 9 10 10 9

33 3630

29 30 32 34

3232

3435 35 33 34

17 1417 18 17 17 13

2 2 3 3 3 3 3

3 4 5 6 5 6 6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

August2008

February2009

May 2009 October2009

April2010

October2010

February2011

No response/don't know

We can afford almost whatever wewant

We are able to buy some moreexpensive goods, but should save onother thingsWe are able to buy what is necessary,but we cannot afford more expensivegoodsWe are able to buy only basic products

We do not have enough money forbasic needs

ISSUES AND ATTITUDES INDEX

14


Which one of the following issues is of greatest concern to you?Responses two percent and greater

2

2

2

3

3

3

2

21

24

35

1

2

3

3

3

4

4

25

20

32

3

3

3

2

3

4

6

22

23

29

2

2

5

4

4

6

7

18

25

23

2

2

3

4

4

5

8

20

19

31

3

2

2

2

2

2

3

5

6

16

18

39

0 10 20 30 40 50


Not a sufficient level of support to small businesses

Problems of water supply

Ecology

Increase in crime rates

Quality and accessibility of education

Solution of housing problems

Low quality and high prices of health services

Corruption

Unemployment and threat of losing a job

Low standard of living and low income

Inflation and price increases

February 2011October 2010April 2010October 2009May 2009February 2009


On the issue most important to you, how has the government performed?

4

4

36

30

39

40

13

9

1

3

7

15

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

October 2010

February 2011

Very good Good Poor Very poor No response Don't know

40% Good 52% Poor

34% Good 49% Poor


What is your opinion regarding high prices? Would you say you are very concerned, somewhat concerned, not

very concerned or not at all concerned?

72

62

59

73

74

23

28

30

24

22

3

7

8

2

2

1

1

1

1

2

1

2

2

1

1

0 20 40 60 80 100

August 2008

February 2009

May 2009

October 2010

February 2011

Very concerned Somewhat concerned Not very concernedNot at all concerned No response/don't know


In your view, which of the following is mostly to blame for high prices?

3

3

6

7

21

14

45

9

4

8

14

13

26

27

4

1

8

20

12

14

19

21

10

1

5

7

8

11

15

19

24

0 10 20 30 40 50


Other

As a result of the customs union with Russia and Belarus

People can afford to pay more, so merchants are charging more

Devaluation of the tenge

Prices are always rising, no one is to blame

Corruption

Merchants are greedy and charging more than necessary

The government's lack of a coherent economic plan

February 2011May 2009; N=1,344February 2009; N=1,359August 2008; N=1,455

Note: in previous polls, this question was only asked of respondents who indicated that they were very concerned or somewhat concerned about high prices; in this poll, the question was asked of the full sample.


Are you satisfied or unsatisfied with the government’s efforts to fight corruption?

10

6

8

11

43

36

35

33

17

26

28

26

9

18

20

23

4

3

1

1

17

11

8

7

0 20 40 60 80 100

October 2009

April 2010

October 2010

February 2011

Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat unsatisfiedVery unsatisfied No response Don't know

53% Satisfied 26% Unsatisfied

42% Satisfied

43% Satisfied

44% Satisfied

44% Unsatisfied

48% Unsatisfied

49% Unsatisfied


Are you satisfied or unsatisfied with the government’s efforts to protect citizens’ political rights?

21

19

47

47

12

13

5

5

2

2

13

14

0 20 40 60 80 100

October 2010

February 2011

Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat unsatisfiedVery unsatisfied No response Don't know


In your opinion, does democracy exist in Kazakhstan?

23 46 16 4 2 9

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Yes, it exists Yes, it mostly exists No, it mostly does not existNo, it does not exist at all No response Don't know

ELECTION INDEX

22


How much have you heard about the presidential election scheduled for April 3, 2011?

I have heard a lot56%

I have heard some about it, but not much

38%

I have not heard anything at all

5%

No response/don't know1%


How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statement? Kazakhstan will be ready for the April 3, 2011

election.

Strongly agree34%

Agree44%

Disagree6%

Strongly disagree1%

No response3%

Don't know12%


Do you support or oppose the government’s decision to enact amendments to the constitution to allow them to call for an early

presidential election, moving up the vote from 2012?

Strongly support32%

Somewhat support33%

Somewhat oppose10%

Strongly oppose3%

No response4%

Don't know18%


How has the decision to hold an early presidential election affected your opinion of the government?

I have a much higher opinion of the

government18%

I have a somewhat higher opinon of the

government23%

I have a somewhat lower opinion of the

government9%

I have a much lower opinion of the

government3%

It did not influence my opinion of the

government25%

No response5%

Don't know17%


Some people have called for the resignation of President Nazarbaev. Do you think that he should resign or not?

5 5 21 60 3 6

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Definitely should Probably should Probably should not

Definitely should not No response Don't know


Thinking about where you will be voting on election day, how confident are you that your vote will be counted

freely and fairly?

Very confident39%

Somewhat confident

30%

Somewhat doubtful16%

Very doubtful9%

No response1%

Don't know5%


How likely is it that you will vote in the April 3 presidential election?

Very likely61%

Somewhat likely23%

Not very likely6%

Will not vote at all5%

No response2% Don't know

3%


66

55

22

25

5

7

3

6

1

2

2

5

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Female

Male

Very likely Somewhat likely Not very likelyWill not vote at all No response Don't know


Breakdown by gender


62

60

24

23

7

6

4

5

1

2

3

4

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Russian

Kazakh



Breakdown by ethnicity


56

58

70

28

25

18

8

6

4

3

6

4

2

2

1

3

4

3

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

18-29

30-49

50+



Breakdown by age


64

78

57

43

24

13

24

32

6

3

5

13

3

3

7

6

1

3

2

2

4

4

4

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Village

Town

Regional center

Almaty/Astana


How likely is it that you will vote in the April 3 presidential election?Breakdown by population density


67

60

45

55

83

21

23

32

26

12

5

3

10

8

1

5

4

7

5

3

4

1

2

1

2

6

5

4

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Center

East

West

South

North



Breakdown by region


Why wouldn’t you vote in the April 3 election?Respondents indicating that they are not very likely to or will not vote; N=167

My vote doesn't change anything

30%

I don't believe the vote will be fair

25%

I am not interested in politics

13%

I am boycotting the election

4%

I don't have time to go to the polls

12%

I don’t have enough information about the

candidates11%

No response3% Don't know

2%


If opposition groups decided to support a single opposition candidate, would you support this candidate or

not?Definitely yes

4% Probably yes7%

Probably not25%

Definitely not34%

It depends7%

No response5%

Don't know18%


Some opposition groups are considering a boycott of the election because they say that the early election is an attempt by Nazarbaev to avoid a challenge from an alternative candidate for the election scheduled in 2012. Would you support a boycott of

the election?Yes 6%

No72%

No response6%

Don't know16%


Now that you have more information about the upcoming presidential election, do you support or oppose President

Nazarbaev’s re-election to another term as president?

Strongly support re-election

57%

Somewhat support re-election

18%

Somewhat oppose re-election

5%

Strongly oppose re-election

6%

No response3%

Don't know11%


This winter, a referendum initiative group collected signatures of those in support of a referendum to extend the current term of President Nursultan Nazarbaev until

2020. Did you sign this petition?

Yes39%

No52%

No response4%

Don't know5%


Some people have raised questions about the methods used by the initiative group to collect signatures. Which of the following statements describes your experience?

Respondents indicating that they signed the petition; N=598

I signed the petition of my own free will.

90%

I was coerced into signing the petition.

3%

No response3%

Don't know4%


In your opinion, are people in Kazakhstan afraid to openly express their political views or not?

14

8

29

24

24

19

14

13

13

27

25

29

32

29

20

19

19

21

35

40

26

26

31

15

19

29

32

16

21

11

12

11

24

27

24

23

8

5

5

6

5

22

21

16

12

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

July 2004

September 2005

August 2008

February 2009

May 2009

October 2009

April 2010

October 2010

February 2011

Majority are afraid Many are afraid Some are afraid Nobody is afraid No response/don't know


Thinking about the next few years, do you think that it will be a risk to the country’s stability if President Nazarbaev does not identify a potential successor?

37 26 17 4 17

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Yes Maybe No No response Don't know


What is your primary source of information about the upcoming presidential election?

TV82%

Newspapers6%

Radio2%

Internet5%

Relatives, friends

3%No response/don't

know2%

INSTITUTIONAL RATINGS

44


What is your opinion of each of the following institutions?

Favorable responses only89

70 69 68

61 6055 49 49 49 47 46

34

89

6872 74

62

57 56

47 48 47 47 45 40

91

73 73 74

65

59 59

47

56 47 51 4544

8780 78

7379

71 70

5256

5357

5345

84

7178 80

69

57 60

50 5150

5348 50

94

7579

80

6762 63

52 52 51 54 4846

92

70 68 7267

57 5448 49

4740 43

33

0102030405060708090

100

February 2011 October 2010 April 2010 October 2009 May 2009 February 2009 August 2008


Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Nursultan Nazarbaev is handling his job?


8186

82 8286

91 90

5 3 2 1 3 2 30

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


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Documents

Kazakhstan National Opinion Poll English Version Kazakhstan... · IRI, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization Kazakhstan National Public Opinion Survey, February 2011 2 Methodology