JY Tsao ∙ Solid-State Lighting: A Case Study in S&T Evolution ∙ 2006 July 12

Solid-State Lighting:A Case Study in Science and Technology Evolution

Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy’s National Security Administration under Contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

Jeff TsaoSandiaNationalLaboratories

Growth of SSL S&T: 1976-2005

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

Nu

mb

er o

f A

rtic

les

or

Pat

ents

Organic

US Patents (2,766)Articles (9,534)

InorganicUS Patents (9,104)Articles (10,548)

Growth of S&T (1976-2004):Electroluminescent Materials & Phenomena

10-15%/yr

20-30%/yr

JY Tsao ∙ Solid-State Lighting: A Case Study in S&T Evolution ∙ 2006 July 12

Driving Forcesfor Science & Technology Evolution

A1A2 A3 A4

Science &Technology

Applications

JY Tsao ∙ Solid-State Lighting: A Case Study in S&T Evolution ∙ 2006 July 12

Extrinsic Applications Drivers for SSL S&T

Market Application

2004 Market Size (M$/yr)

Shock Threshold

(m/s2)

Size

(lm/mm3)

Color Gamut (%NTSC)

Etendu

(mm2-str)Turn-on Time (s) CRI

Luminous Efficacy (lm/W)

Cost of Light ($/Mlmh)

Signals Traffic signals 74 x xx xxSigns and Displays Single color 140 xx xSigns and Displays Full color 380 x xx x xSigns and Displays Large LCD backlights 0 x xx x xSigns and Displays Projection Sources 0 x xx xx x xMobile Appliances Keypad backlights 817 xx xx xx xxMobile Appliances LCD backlights 1,032 xx xx x xx xx xMobile Appliances Camera Flash xx xx x xx x xx xAutomotive Interior 360 xx x xx x xAutomotive Exterior 100 xx x xx x xIllumination Flashlights xx x x xx x xx xIllumination Colored architectural xx x

JY Tsao ∙ Solid-State Lighting: A Case Study in S&T Evolution ∙ 2006 July 12

General Illumination Drivers for SSL S&T

Driver Application

2004 Market Size (M$/yr)

Shock Threshold

(m/s2)

Size

(lm/mm3)

Color Gamut (%NTSC)

Etendu

(mm2-str)Turn-on Time (s) CRI

Luminous Efficacy (lm/W)

Cost of Light ($/Mlmh)

Market (profit) General Illumination xx xxNon-market (energy savings) General Illumination xx

JY Tsao ∙ Solid-State Lighting: A Case Study in S&T Evolution ∙ 2006 July 12

Cost of Light Evolution

Cost of Operating CapitalLight Cost Cost

inWlm

MWh

/

/$

kh

klmWlm

kW

in

in /$1/

/$

Electricity

LuminousEfficacy

PowerDelivery

Cost

Lifetime

Mainte-nance

Cost

= +

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

1.E-02 1.E-01 1.E+00 1.E+01 1.E+02

Power Delivery Cost ($/W in)

Lu

min

ou

s E

ffic

ac

y (

lm/W

in)

High CRI LED2006 2004

100% efficient SSL(CRI 90 Cap/Op = 1/3)

Cost of Light ($/Mlmh)

0.25

2.5

7.8

25

78

0.78

JY Tsao ∙ Solid-State Lighting: A Case Study in S&T Evolution ∙ 2006 July 12

Summary

Science &Technology

Applications

CRICoL $/Win

lm/Winlm/W

Traffic

SignalsLCD

BacklightsGeneral

Illumination General

Illumination

Market(profit)

Non-market(energy savings) Driver