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June 29 2020
Just Transition Workshop
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Content
10Shamini & JarredineNext steps
40AllPresentation & Discussion
5Break
70All (moderators: Igor & Fiona)Breakout session: Vision & Enablers
5Break & Trello demo (optional)
10Dave A view of the world in 2050
• Climate Ambition & Just Transition Pathways initiative
• BCG view on COVID-19 and climate change
30Igor & FionaThought starters
10Shamini & FionaIntro & objectives
Presenter Time (min)
2
Intro & Objectives
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Today’s participantsFacilitators Name Organisation/Role
Allan Taylor ASISA
Bev Jack Engages on behalf of BUSA on
the ILO Decent Work Country
Programme
Bridgitte Backman CGCSA
Dhiraj Rama Cement Producers Association
Elzanne Moodie Glencore
Jaco Human IGUA-SA
Jo Dean SAREC
Joanne Yawitch NBI
Kevin Baard SAPIA
Shamini Harrington BUSA
Wendy Poulton SANEA
Yousuf Haffejee SAIPPA
Giles Douglas Rothschilds
Henk Langenhoven MCSA
Facilitators Name Organisation/Role
Dave Collins MAC Consulting-SME
Pierre Venter BASA
Glen Malherbe CAIA
Jahni de Villiers AgriSA
Jane Molony PAMSA
Jarredine Morris BUSA
Johan Thyse Sasol
Mandy Rambharos Eskom
Mike Levington SAREC
Natasja Ambrosio Retail Association
Portia Bangerezako Sanlam
Siraaj Jacobs BP (representing Business
Leadership South Africa)
Thinus Pieters EIUG
Yolan Friedman Endangered Wildlife Trust
(representing AMCHAM)
Gro
up A
Gro
up B
Igor LakicModerator
Fiona TokpleModerator
Emma BucklandSupport
Jozef HandsSupport
Participants highlighted in red were not present.If you have any technical issues, please contact; (Group A) [email protected]; (Group B) [email protected]
Each group has one Trello board prepared for the
breakout session. If you do not have access,
please reach out to the respective BCG support
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4
A Just Transition for South Africa
For this working group, the Just Transition is a shift towards
environmentally sustainable economies and societies for all. Such a
transition needs to be well managed and contribute to the goals of
decent work for all, social inclusion and the eradication of poverty.
This principle is carried through in the 2015 Paris Agreement which
includes in its preamble
“Taking into account the imperatives of a Just Transition of the
workforce and the creation of decent work and quality jobs in
accordance with nationally defined development priorities”.
BUSA Just Transition position paper
5© 2018 BrightHouse 5
2Objectives for today
Vision for South Africa Aligned high-level vision for South Africa for 2030 and 2050
1
Enablers to vision (initial view)
Identified groups of enablers critical to achieve visions in 2030 and 2050
2
Starting pointWhere South Africa is today
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How we want to ensure an effective session
Turn on video / camera
If you are willing and able, please turn on your camera so we can engage as
interactively as possible
Unmute if you want to speak and say your name
If you want to speak unmute and briefly mention your name. Please mute again
afterwards
Mute the mic unless speaking
Please remember to mute your microphone if you are not speaking so we
can limit background noise
Make use of Trello
Make use of Trello for the white boarding activity. Let us know if you are facing
any problems! Please create an account in advance on https://trello.com/
Engage and participate
Your involvement is highly valued, so please engage openly with us, and limit
other distractions
Feel free to engage offline
If there is something we are not able to talk about given time limits, or you are
facing technical issues, please contact us via: [email protected](Group A)
or [email protected](Group B)
Quick demo will follow
7
Thought starters COVID-19 and climate change globally and in South Africa
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Current
trajectory3
B tons CO2-equivalent
10
202519250
20501950
70
1975 2000
20
30
40
50
60
5-10% drop in greenhouse gas emissions1, largest since World War II… …but the overall impact is still small
6%
6%
22%
30%
14%
21%Transport
Industry
Power
Buildings
Others8
LULUCF9
Annual global emission footprint7: ~54B tons CO2-equivalent
High COVID-19
impact10; but only
4-8% drop in
overall emissions
Low COVID-19
impact11
1. Excluding Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF); 2. Estimated annualized impact in 2020; 3. Assumes GHG emissions grow from 2018 at same rate as the Current Policies scenario in UNEP 2019 Gap report to 2050 (1.1% CAGR); 4. Assumes countries decarbonize further at same annual rate that was required to achieve INDCs between 2020 & 2030; 5. Assumes 25% reduction by 2030 and net-zero by 2070; 6. Assumes 45% reduction by 2030 and net-zero by 2050; 7. 2015-19 average; 8. Waste, Agriculture and Fugitive; 9. Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry; 10. 36% emissions decline from transport & 20% decline from industry until Apr 2020; 11. Resulting in 0-2% drop in overall emissions; Source: EDGAR 5.0, FAO, PRIMAP-hist v2.1, Global Carbon Project, IPCC, UNEP Emissions Gap Report, WRI, Nature –May 2020, BCG.
Paris
pledges4
1.5°C
path6
2.0°C
path5
US Great Depression
-13%
World War II
-7% Fall of USSR
-2%COVID-19
-(5-10)%2
Financial Crisis
-1%
Second OilCrisis
-4%
As of 19 May 2020
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11.1.
COVID-19 impact has led to largest drop of emissions since World War II;however, it’s still small compared with overall global emissions
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200M
Cities at risk
Cities likely to be affected by 0.5m sea level rise by 2050;
1-2m rise over the next century
Damages on the rise
Annual climate-related damage1 by 2050
Potential displacement
People potentially displaced by 2050
Increasing frequency of
extreme weather
Increase in yearly weather catastrophes since 1980
Economic slowdown
Global loss in GDP by 2100 (relative to no global warming)
570
2x-4x
Unchecked climate change continues to pose a catastrophic economic and physical threat to society
1. Damage by increased drought, flooding & crop failures will hamper growth & threaten infrastructureSource: The Economist - Aug 2017; The Guardian - Apr 2016; NBER - Aug 2019; Scientific - Dec 2012, EIU; PNAS - Jun 2019; MunichRe - Feb 2020; Climate Central - Oct 2019; C40 Cities - Jan 2020
As of 18 June 2020
10-30%
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11.1.
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Required investment1
(% of GDP p.a.)
2050 Greenhouse gas emissions
(B tons CO2-equivalent p.a.)
13.3
1.2
2.2
0.5
5.6
50.0
7.3
World
Brazil
Russia
Germany
India
China
US
3.7
0.5
0.5
0.06
1.3
17.3
3.8
Paris
pledges 2°C path 2°C path
81 %
80 %
66 %
60 %
57 %
57 %
65 %World
Brazil
Russia
Germany
India
China
US
“Strongly agree/tend to agree”
Ipsos survey: Is it important that government actions
prioritize climate change?2
1.5-2%
1.5-2%
1.5-2%
1-1.5%
1-1.5%
1-3%
≥ 4%
1. Investment depends on current emission volume & sector mix, ambition, GDP; investment to reach Paris pledges not included, but small in comparison 2. Survey results, April 2020; Full question: To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following: In the economic recovery after COVID-19, it is important that government actions prioritize climate change?; n = 500 to 1,000 per country; total of 28,039 online respondents aged 16–74; fieldwork dates 17-19 April 2020. Source: Ipsos MORI, World Bank; BCG
Governments need to make significant investments to meet emission targets; strong public support for climate actions visible
Imperative for governments to push required investments Strong public support for climate actions visible
As of 20 April 2020
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11.1.
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1. Average for year 2017-18; 2. Includes both adaptation (adjusting to the expected effects of climate change) and mitigation (reducing emissions); 3. Through 2050, year-on-year adjusted for inflation; 4. 'Potential' is defined as design of the stimulus package to allocate more share to green measures & further tranches of stimulus; 5. Data is represented for G20 countries, excl. India; EU figures still pending member state approval; 6. 'Green stimulus' defined as direct investments that also serve a strong environmental purpose; green stimulus countries include Canada, US, Australia, Germany, Italy, France, UK, European Union, China, South Korea; green stimulus measures are in addition to current annual investment shown on left -hand side. Source: The Climate Policy Initiative (CPI), IPCC, GCA, Vivid economics, BCG
Current global annual green investments well below
requirements to reach 2.0°C path
As stimulus measures unfold,
further potential4 to push green ambition
Current global stimulus package5 (G20) & green stimulus allocation
$0,6T
Current1
~$2.2T
Required
for 2°C path3
~$1.8T
~$1.8-4.0T2
Current annual global government & corporate investments
~$0.4T
Global stimulus
measures5
Global green
stimulus measures6
~$11.0T
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11.1.
As stimulus measures continue to unfold, imperative for government leaders to push the green ambition further
As of 18 June 2020
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India’s IREDA has set aside ₹100B
for renewable energy projects in
2020
South Korea: Moon pledges to
safeguard jobs, industries with
“Green New Deal”
Post-pandemic “green shift” in
transport could create up to 15
million jobs worldwide
At LEAD on Climate 2020, 300+
Business leaders tell congress: we
can build back better
Green recovery: Germany unveils
plan for €40B climate spending
surge
Large global investor to begin
abandoning companies heavily
invested in thermal coal
Leaders have started to initiate actions to build green recovery into their COVID-19 response
As of 18 June 2020
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11.1.
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11.1.
Government and business have the opportunity to overcome today's COVID-19 challenge while starting to build climate resilience for tomorrow
04
02
05
03
Finance the green recovery
Scrutinize supply chains
Integrate climate into investment process
Increase resilience to climate risk
Reduce cost by reducing carbon01
Business leaders & investorsBGovernmentsA
04
02
05
03
Leverage blended finance
Focus on green job creation opportunities
Reboot multi-lateralism
Prepare for job transitions
Prioritize sustainability in stimulus strategy01
Source: BCG
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'Climate-Smart' Agriculture
Large Scale Solar EPC
and O&M Growing green consumerism
Public EV charging
infrastructur
e
Electric Vehicle (EV) assembly hub for SEA
Industry digitalisation
Increased well-being of the wider
population
Grid Infrastructure Upgrades
Other RE and EE technologies
Smart Home IOT Devices
Distributed Solar Installation
'Climate-
Smart'
agriculture
Large scale
solar EPC3
and O&M4
Growing green
consumerism
Electric vehicle
assembly hub
Industry
digitalisation
Increased well-being of
the wider population
Grid infrastructure
upgrades
Other RE1 and
EE2 technologies
Smart home,
intelligent
power
systems
Shared
mobility
ecosystems
1. RE = Renewable Energy; 2.EE = Energy Efficient; 3. EPC = Engineering, Procurement, Construction; 4. Operations and Maintenance; 5. Electric Vehicle
14
Improved air quality &
environment
COVID-19 crisis provides a unique opportunity to accelerate climate actions in the new reality
Public EV5
charging
infrastructur
e
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What does this mean for South Africa?
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In the short-term (2020), COVID-19 will put large number of jobs at risk in SA…
But: COVID-19 also provides opportunity
to accelerate Just Transition and move towards long-term
vision
Source: April Monetary Policy Review, Business For South Africa – Scenario Analysis
Between
4-10% contraction in GDP*
Between
370k – 1Mjobs lost this year
At least
1600 business
insolvencies
* At a minimum (best case scenario)
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In the long-term, climate change is a major threat to South Africa's future prosperity
Impact for South Africa
Higher water demand, but increased water scarcity
Loss of arable land leading to food insecurity
Increase in "direct wave impact" and coastal flooding
Increased socio-economic inequality, public health risk
Irreversible loss of ecosystems and biodiversity
Regional temperature increases 3-4°C
Increased rainfall variation
Frequency of warm extremes increases six-fold
Global
2°C scenario
Regional temperature increases >6°C
Increased evaporation, heat waves, droughts, extreme rainfalls
Increased desertification, soil salinity, wild fires and erosion
Global
3+°C scenario
Regional temperature increases 4-6°C
Overall rainfall reduced by 20%
>18 month increase in average drought duration
Global
3°C scenario
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Emissions (Mt CO2e)
Energy Industry BuildingsTranspor-
tation
Other
~490-580
Total 2°C Path
~120-230
~ 60-75 %
20502015 baseline
Source: BCG analysis; Oxford Economics, IEA, BCG1. Yield on 10y government bonds 2017; for Germany: Macroeconomic modelling of Climate Paths for Germany study
To make a fair contribution to only the 2°C path, South Africa needs to cut its emissions by ~60-75% by 2050
$700B investment required to achieve outlined 2°C scenario…
…but unlike other countries, macro-economic case for 2°C path negative in South Africa
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Three distinct steps to overcome the economic challenge
Source: BCG analysis
4°C+
Current
trajectory
Available funding
Politi
cal w
ill
HighLow
Hig
h
1.5-2°C
Secure
funding
3
Implement no-regret moves
1
4°C
3-4°C
Change the context
2
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Several levers are already net positive for South Africa
Sector / lever Investment [$bn]
Reduction potential in 2050
[MtCO2e/year]
1
1. Internal Combustion Engines 2. ~$0,2bn per year (average) 3. ~$1bn per year (average)
Power
~50% of decommissioned coal replaced by RE~$65bn ~ 90
Industry
Improved process efficiency and RE deployment ~$0,5bn ~ 3
Transport
Higher fuel efficiency standards for new ICE1 ~$6bn2 ~ 2
Implement no-regret moves
Buildings
Higher energy efficiency standards for new buildings ~$30bn3 ~ 11
Total impact ~$100bn ~ 106
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Changing the context requires a joint effort from government, industry and citizens
South Africa's policy landscape hindering climate action in many arease.g. self-generation of green energy difficult beyond 10 MW
Policy context can be changed to produce more "no regret" movesand incentivize industry and private individuals to take climate action
Changes are not obvious. They will produce winners and losersand therefore require a transparent, collaborative process with stakeholders
Government, industry and public need to closely work togetherto identify required changes and their potential impacts on today's context
2
German Industry Association (BDI) developed "The Voice of German Industry" on combating climate change
One year effort to create objective fact base, engage all stakeholders and create joint point of view
Developed regulatory and policy recommendations to modify incentives and change the context
Now considered a major player in pushing Germany's climate change agenda
Source: BCG study "Climate Paths for Germany", BCG analysis
Change the context
Example: Germany
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Securing international funding for climate action
3
#2 in Climate Change Performance Index, "1.5°C compatible"
Amended constitution to incorporate climate change
Developed practical sector strategies with cc as a key priority
Established Climate Change Competence Center to ensure expert input to policy making
Created national finance strategy, jumped on early funding opportunities
Example: Morocco
Secure funding
• Commitment from developed
countries for money and
technology transfer
Large international funding potential
• RSA's efforts to date to secure
international funding have been
haphazard and uncoordinated
• World Bank, Clean Technology
Fund describe witnessing "inter-
ministerial" rivalries
Comprehensive funding strategy needed
Green Stimulus mean to recovery from
COVID-19, secure additional funding and
accelerate Just Transition
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Accelerated action required, since transition will likely
be faster than expected, early movers stand to benefit
However, RSA struggles to follow-up on strategies, due
to insufficient public & private mobilization
Foundation for climate action has been established via
RSA's comprehensive climate change policy strategies
Time to move
Global opportunity to capture leadership in fast
growing low-carbon technologies
24
Thought starters Climate Ambition & Just Transition Pathways initiative
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Climate Ambition & Just Transition Pathways initiative identifies feasible and just mitigation pathways
driven by business and in collaboration with government and civil society
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A collaborative study to accelerate Green Stimulus & create a 'unified voice of SA business' at COP 26
Roadmap to a Just Transition• Synthesised outcomes from COP26
• Path to achieve Just Transition outlined
'Green' COVID economic response & Toolkit for effective COP26 negotiation• Green Stimulus to drive economic recovery
• No-regret moves to accelerate mitigation and adaptation efforts• Ambition levels for SA & quantification of 'emissions gap'
• Prioritised technical measures & opportunities to ensure climate resilience and just transition
4 months
Phase 2: Roadmap
July Aug Sep Oct Nov
Finalise roadmap
to a Just Transition in 2050
Develop Green Stimulus vision and strategy, prioritise 'no-regret' green projects and prepare
international funding requests
COP26
'Ready'
2
Phase 1: Post-COVID-19 Green Stimulus and COP 26 Prep
Dec Jan
Stakeholder Engagement…with critical South African industries/business leaders, government ministries, civil society, labour, and COP26 representatives
TBD
1 a)
Establish fact base
and reference points
Detail mitigation and
adaptation measures
& opportunities
per sector
Assess feasibility and
impact (incl. just
transition
implications)
Define feasible
climate pathways for
South Africa (incl.
int. support
required)
1 b)
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Where we are today and next steps
✓ Ready to kick-off: Clear governance structure, process and project plan developed
✓ Large support: Endorsements from e.g.; DEFF, BUSA, various CEOs
• Next: CEO launch event in July
28
A view of the world in 2050
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How we see the future playing out
Global climate
& environment
• Net-zero in 2050 not achieved, global GHG emissions only peaked mid-2020s. World on track for a 2°C temperature rise over-pre-industrial times by 2100, 1.5°C target missed
• Global shift to renewables led to drop in emissions from the 2020s - driven by lower renewables costs and higher carbon pricing
• Electricity meets ~50% of global energy demand, compared to 19% in 2020. Fossil fuels provide ~35% of global energy
demand, compared to ~80% in 2020
• Physical damage from climate change grows, with increased desertification in sub-Saharan Africa. Damage grows further in
2nd half of century, but slower than without previous climate action
• Electricity from renewables for households and buildings is widely used in combination with smart grids and AI
• Light vehicle transport has largely been electrified, using much cheaper batteries which are integrated into grid systems
• Large drop in solar PV costs has created a global industry in hydrogen production through electrolysis, which drives production of zero-emissions synthetic liquid fuels for aviation and long-distance shipping, and combined with carbon pricing led
to coke being replaced as reductant in iron ore smelting
Global energy
picture
• Availability of cheap electricity from distributed solar PV and wind sources has led to proliferation of mini-grids in poorer rural communities, enabling small-scale water desalination, improved sanitation and health, and facilitation of small businesses
• Number of people living in extreme poverty has dropped from more than 1.3 billion in 2020 to less than 500 million
• New technologies such as AI and robotics exacerbated unemployment in countries that had no appropriate strategies.
Universal Basic Income was implemented in many countries to support the most the vulnerable people
• Many new jobs were created that were unimaginable in 2020, in new sectors and industries as the economy transitioned.
Social impact
• Many unique socio-economic dynamics came into play that impacted growth, development, and employment.
Global
South Africa
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Workshop
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Recap: Grouping for todayFacilitators Name Organisation/Role
Allan Taylor ASISA
Bev Jack Engages on behalf of BUSA on
the ILO Decent Work Country
Programme
Bridgitte Backman CGCSA
Dhiraj Rama Cement Producers Association
Elzanne Moodie Glencore
Jaco Human IGUA-SA
Jo Dean SAREC
Joanne Yawitch NBI
Kevin Baard SAPIA
Shamini Harrington BUSA
Wendy Poulton SANEA
Yousuf Haffejee SAIPPA
Giles Douglas Rothschilds
Henk Langenhoven MCSA
Facilitators Name Organisation/Role
Dave Collins MAC Consulting-SME
Pierre Venter BASA
Glen Malherbe CAIA
Jahni de Villiers AgriSA
Jane Molony PAMSA
Jarredine Morris BUSA
Johan Thyse Sasol
Mandy Rambharos Eskom
Mike Levington SAREC
Natasja Ambrosio Retail Association
Portia Bangerezako Sanlam
Siraaj Jacobs BP (representing Business
Leadership South Africa)
Thinus Pieters EIUG
Yolan Friedman Endangered Wildlife Trust
(representing AMCHAM)
Gro
up A
Gro
up B
Igor LakicModerator
Fiona TokpleModerator
Emma BucklandSupport
Jozef HandsSupport
Participants highlighted in red were not present.If you have any technical issues, please contact; (Group A) [email protected]; (Group B) [email protected]
Each group has one Trello board prepared for the
breakout session. If you do not have access,
please reach out to the respective BCG support
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Our approach for the Just Transition workshop
World in 2050 • Environment/Climate• Technology• Trade & markets• Politics
World in 2030 • Environment/Climate• Technology• Trade & markets• Politics
Starting point Social, Economic, and
Environmental challenges &
national objectives around
national development, climate
action and just transition
Vision 2050Vision for SA's
People, Economy, Environment
1b
Vision 2030Vision for SA's
People, Economy, Environment
1a
Key enablers to mid-term vision Short- (2020-2025) and mid-term (2025-2030) pathway
Key enablers to long-term visionLong-term pathway (2030-2050)
2b
2a
How we see the future Vision for South Africa Pathways to vision
Group A responsible for 1a, 2a
Group B responsible for 1b, 2b
If you have any technical issues, please contact; (Group A) [email protected]; (Group B) [email protected]
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Overview of activities & Trello demo
Activity 1| Vision: Imagine SA in 2030/2050• Individual brainstorming • Voting• Discussion
Activity 2| Key enablers: How do we get there? • Individual brainstorming • Voting• Discussion
If you have any technical issues, please contact; (Group A) [email protected]; (Group B) [email protected]
34
Breakout session: Vision & Enablers
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GROUP A
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What are guiding criteria in the vision development?
Criteria Description
Achievable
Grounded Relevant, authentic, and credible; rooted in the organization’s distinctive strengths as well as industry and global context
Succinct Creates clarity by identifying a single destination point versus a list of ambitions; creates laser focus and specific enough to be evocative
Measurable Able to track progress against vision by connecting to strategy and KPIs
Time-Bound Attached to a targeted time frame (whether explicit in the statement or in supporting strategyand milestones)
Audacious
Ambitious Reaches beyond the organization’s current capabilities and will require innovation, risk-taking,and change
Visionary Imagines a different world for the future, rather than an ambition rooted in today’s context or business constraints
Motivational Intrinsically motivating to stakeholders; a vision worth working toward every day
Bold Clear and confident assertion of desired impact and unique role the organization will play
Vision for South Africa 1Group A
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vision for
South Africa
3
What do we want to achieve for
our people?
How do we envision our
economy?
What is the state of the regional
environment and climate?
1Vision for South Africa
If you have any technical issues, please contact; (Group A) [email protected]; (Group B) [email protected]
Group A
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(Transform Kenya into) a globally competitive and prosperous country with a high quality of life by 2030… a newly-industrialising, middle income country providing a high quality of life to all its citizens in a clean and secure environment
- Kenya Vision 2030, MSP
Kenya
By 2030, the new Egypt will achieve a competitive, balanced, diversified and knowledge based economy, characterized by justice, social integration and participation, with a balanced and diversified ecosystem, benefiting from its strategic location and human capital to achieve sustainable development for a better life to all Egyptians
- 2030 Egypt Vision, MCIT
EgyptVision 2030
examples
from other
countries
1Vision for South Africa
Make (Morocco's) territory and civilisation more resilient to climate change while ensuring a rapid transition to a low-carbon economy… part of an integrated approach that goes beyond climate change, to include human rights… (and) implementation of the advanced regionalisation project in Morocco, building on integrated and participatory strategic land planning
- Nationally Determined Contribution submission to UN, Morocco
Morocco
Group A
If you have any technical issues, please contact; (Group A) [email protected]; (Group B) [email protected]: MCIT = Egyptian Ministry of Communications and Information Technology, MSP = Kenyan Ministry of State for Planning
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Activity 1: Envision South Africa in 2030
1Vision for South Africa
Group A
From here… …to here
South Africa is on its way to undergo a huge transformation, and pursuing a Just Transition. Now, imagine that a story about South Africa is featured on the cover of a major periodical
a) What is featured on the cover? What does the headline say?
You have• 5 min for individual brainstorming incl. voting• 5 min presentation of selected examples
b) How does this translate into the ambition for 2030 for people, economy and the environment/ climate?
You have• 10 min for individual brainstorming incl. voting• 15 min for presentation and refinement of
selected examples
If you have any technical issues, please contact; (Group A) [email protected]; (Group B) [email protected]
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What are key policy enablers /
interventions in the short- and mid-
term to reach 2030 vision?
Activity 2Key enablers to
reach vision
2Key enablers
If you have any technical issues, please contact; (Group A) [email protected]; (Group B) [email protected]
You have• 10 min for brainstorming enablers incl.
voting• 15 min for discussion and selection of key
enablers
Group A
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GROUP B
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What are guiding criteria in the vision development?
Criteria Description
Achievable
Grounded Relevant, authentic, and credible; rooted in the organization’s distinctive strengths as well as industry and global context
Succinct Creates clarity by identifying a single destination point versus a list of ambitions; creates laser focus and specific enough to be evocative
Measurable Able to track progress against vision by connecting to strategy and KPIs
Time-Bound Attached to a targeted time frame (whether explicit in the statement or in supporting strategyand milestones)
Audacious
Ambitious Reaches beyond the organization’s current capabilities and will require innovation, risk-taking,and change
Visionary Imagines a different world for the future, rather than an ambition rooted in today’s context or business constraints
Motivational Intrinsically motivating to stakeholders; a vision worth working toward every day
Bold Clear and confident assertion of desired impact and unique role the organization will play
Vision for South Africa 1Group B
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rved.Pillars of our
vision for
South Africa
3
What do we want to achieve for
our people?
How do we envision our
economy?
What is the state of the regional
environment and climate?
1Vision for South Africa
If you have any technical issues, please contact; (Group A) [email protected]; (Group B) [email protected]
Group B
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1Vision for South Africa
"Green growth, as a means to achieve a low carbon economy and to enrichnatural capital, will become the principal direction in sustainable economicdevelopment; reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and increased capabilityto absorb greenhouse gas are gradually becoming compulsory and importantindicators in socio-economic development"
Vietnam Vision 2050
"Low-carbon, green growth is a new vision to guide (South Korea's) long-term development (with the) Green Growth Strategy as an innovative development approach (fundamentally shifting the) growth paradigm, from quantitative growth to qualitative growth (as a) long-term strategy up to 2050"
South Korea Vision 2050
"The National Strategy on Climate Change is the guiding instrument of the national policy on climate change both in the medium and long terms to face the effects of climate change and transition to a competitive, sustainable, and low-carbon emission economy" with "50% emissions decrease" from 2000 levels in 2050"
Mexico Vision 2050
Group B
If you have any technical issues, please contact; (Group A) [email protected]; (Group B) [email protected]
Source: Vietnam National Green Growth Strategy; United Nations Environmental Programme; Mexico National Climate Change Strategy
Vision 2050
examples
from other
countries
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Activity 1: Envision South Africa in 2050
1Vision for South Africa
Group B
From here… …to here
Envision the world in 2050: South Africa has undergone a huge transformation and successfully achieved a Just Transition. Now, imagine that a story about South Africa is featured on the cover of a major periodical
If you have any technical issues, please contact; (Group A) [email protected]; (Group B) [email protected]
a) What is featured on the cover? What does the headline say?
You have• 5 min for individual brainstorming incl. voting• 5 min presentation of selected examples
b) How does this translate into the ambition for 2050 for people, economy and the environment/ climate?
You have• 10 min for individual brainstorming incl. voting• 15 min for presentation and refinement of
selected examples
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What are no-regret policy
interventions / key enablers that
support achievement of 2050 vision?
Activity 2Key enablers to
reach vision
2Key enablers
If you have any technical issues, please contact; (Group A) [email protected]; (Group B) [email protected]
Group B
You have• 10 min for brainstorming enablers incl.
voting• 15 min for discussion and selection of key
enablers
47
Presentation & Discussion
48© 2018 BrightHouse 48
<
Initial view on vision 2030, 2050 and key enablers
Workshop output Group A & B
High-level vision 20301 2 High-level vision 2050
People: • A working social and economic compact
between all partners that is driving shared prosperity and tackling poverty and inequality
• Access to quality education, decent work, health, low cost and reliable energy, mobility, basic services
People: • SA's inclusive economy is leaving no person
behind• South African's people are empowered: South
Africans are more resilient (less vulnerable) to catastrophes (environmental, economic, health) through excellence in education, a thriving Green, climate neutral Economy which enables entrepreneurship and innovation
Economic:• GDP of at least $550bn (5% growth rate), a Gini
Coefficient of less than 0.5, debt to GDP below 50% and ranked in the Top 20 on the Global Competitiveness Index
Economic:• Leading the region with a carbon neutral,
sustainable economy which is matching or exceeding the NDP economic growth ambition and supporting the eradication of the triple challenges of poverty, unemployment and inequality
Environmental/Climate:• Leading the continent in local production of low
carbon technologies• An unequivocal commitment to a green energy
transition with clear achievable goals• Improvements in all state of environment
indicators and increased economic competitiveness as a consequence
Environmental/Climate:• SA has reached carbon neutrality and created a
resilient society and ecologically sustainable economy through maintaining resilient ecosystems and healthier, economically active communities
3 Key enablers
In the short- to mid-term
1. Create a common vision (e.g.; "Presidential Climate Coordination Vision") and compact between civil society, government, business
2. Create coherence of policy landscape (e.g.; align policies across NPC, DEFF, DMRE, etc.)
3. Enable sustainable finance and access to green funding
4. Create incentives for private sector to adopt renewables
5. Facilitate public private partnerships for gas economy
6. Drive skills development across sectors
In the long-term
1. Achieve policy coherence including alignment between key planning instruments (e.g.; industrialisation plan, national development plan, energy plans etc.)
2. Enable build-up of low-carbon technology industry in South Africa based on locally available resources (e.g.; renewables generation and storage technologies such as batteries and electric mobility)
In addition: Leverage existing work (e.g.; B4SA, BUSApositioning papers) to further develop view on key enablers!
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Next steps
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Next steps
Fiona
✓ Refine workshop output and share with group incl. Trello board notes
Jarredine
• Put together list of next steps for further refinement ofthe high-level vision, enablers, milestones & roadmap
BUSA JT working group
• Map policy landscape
• Start engagements with government to discuss enablers
51
Appendix
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52
• South Africa has achieved rapid economic growth, substantially reduced inequality and
unemployment and is building resilience based on its low carbon development path
• South Africa has developed the fundamentals for a low-carbon, ultimately zero-carbon
future.
• In 2030 a decade of a green stimulus and low carbon growth path has reduced energy costs
and increased economic growth and the country's competitiveness
• South Africa stuck in outdated economic ideologies
• South Africa is on its way to achieving a thriving society where job security is a reality, RE is
a booming sector and growth and investment is higher than today.
• South Africa is on its way to become a thriving economy and society - with growing its
national clean tech sector and accelerating away from coal
• South Africa leads the continent through low carbon energy driven growth and an innovative
and equal society
• We did not choose between a healthy environment and a healthy economy we have both and
thus we have an economy that is cleaner, fairer and more stable and has allowed inclusivity
for all
• The SA that leads Africa
• South Africa in 2030 sees the benefits of a low carbon growth path that has reduced costs of
energy, supported growth and reduced inequality
• South Africa's green path woos investors globally
• Finally some green shoots from South Africa - climate awareness has taken root but they are
still ten years behind
• South Africa has transitioned to a more resilient and lower carbon economy through the
implementation of it's IRP by securing green stimulus funding and implementing innovative
water conservation and demand management measures.
• A working social and economic compact between all partners that is driving shared
prosperity and tackling poverty and inequality
• Access to quality education, decent work, health, low cost and reliable energy, mobility,
basic services
• Reduction of unemployment rate by 50%, decent jobs, skills development
• Improved quality of life and incomes as a result of cheaper energy, improved
competitiveness and employment
• Unemployment levels have declined and critical skills have been developed to enable
country competitiveness
• Number of green jobs replaces traditional jobs in a thriving green economy
• Significant progress towards achieving the UN Development Goals - specifically;
• Poverty has been alleviated, inequality and unemployment have been significantly reduced
• South Africans have access to low cost renewable energy that enables job security, equality
and innovation.
• Our people have access to energy, clean water and a higher quality of life.
• A healthy and skilled population accessing jobs and incomes
• Meaningful employment whilst being responsible for future generations
• A South Africa that serves the visions it created in the NDP and results in elimination of
poverty and economic expansion and growth, through a transition that represents
protection of the environment adn is based on equality for all .
What does the headline say about SA in 2030? What should be our ambition for SA's people in 2030?
Trello Board Group A (2030) – Lists ordered by votes (I/II)
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What should be our ambition for SA'seconomy in 2030?
What are key areas for action / policy interventions to enable the journey to this vision?
What should be our ambition for environment and climate matters?
• GDP of at least $550bn (5% growth rate), a Gini
Coefficient of less than 0.5, debt to GDP below 50% and
ranked in the Top 20 on the Global Competitiveness Index
• Meeting the UN Sustainable developments goals with
significant improvements towards energy efficiency and
emissions reduction
• Leading economy on the African continent
• GDP growing at more than 5% and economic diversification
driving growth
• Economic growth has recovered and we are recognised as
being an investment hotspot on the African continent
• Debt GDP ratio halved from 82% high
• Economic growth has been achieved in the short-term,
and long-term competitiveness has been built
• Sustainable growth economy whilst empowering its people
• South Africa is supporting the transition to a lower carbon
world by providing the natural resources
• Global competitiveness
• Leading the continent in local production of low carbon
technologies
• An unequivocal commitment to a green energy transition
with clear achievable goals
• Improvements in all state of environment indicators and
increased economic competitiveness as a consequence
• Transition to a lower-carbon economy has been
accelerated and South Africa is on the path to meet its
fair share of Paris Agreement
• Well articulated vision and on track for meeting the Paris
Agreement goals, with requisite policy enablers in place
• All South Africans are aware of and committed to the
environmental aims to prevent pollution
• Conserving biodiversity and water resources
• A concrete, implementable plan that addresses job
security and increases resilience
• Putting in place the necessary legislative framework
backed by expert scientific opinion and a functioning
bureaucracy to address environment and climate change
issues
• Creating an Environmentally sustainable climate for all
• Roadmap to green transition
• Presidential Climate Coordination Vision, common vision
between civil society, government, business
• Enable access to green financing, incentivised RE for
private sector, public private partnerships for the gas
economy
• Policy to support meaningful Job Creation
• South Africa's emissions substantially reduced in line with
international commitments and resilience to climate
impacts strengthened significantly=
• R&D and innovation policies strengthened and financing
systems put in place to support industry transitions
• Efficient Government
• A strategy to manage climate impacts is in place and
being implemented.
• Enable access to green funding; Ensure national gas
security; Develop workforce transition plan; Remove
regulatory roadblocks for alternative energy sources
• South Africa reaping rewards of progressive economic
policy decisions
• Progressive economic policies that include adoption of
market fundamentals as opposed to Marxist fundamentals
• Remove barriers to self-generation
• South Africa leading race towards meeting environmental
targets
• Integrated policy that drives the country along a clear
pathway
Trello Board Group A (2030) – Lists ordered by votes (II/II)
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What does the headline say about SA in 2050? What should be our ambition for SA's people in 2050?
Trello Board Group B (2050) – Lists ordered by votes (I/II)
• A model for sustainable development: South Africa has transitioned to a low-carbon
economy while creating jobs and reducing socio-economic inequality
• South Africa is implementing policies that are aligned within Government and supported by
its people across the board, and through investment has succeeded in becoming a leader in
innovation and sustainable investments.
• South Africa's New Gold - Hydrogen (comment: We have to focus on opportunities )
• SA leads the globe with the development of the 5th IR: a thriving society and sustainable
economic growth based on resilience, equitable benefit sharing and ecologically sound
development.
• A carbon neutral economy achieved, in a sustainable manner through beneficiation of
natural resources.
• A thriving inclusive economy underpinned by empowering people and building resilient
communities through upskilling and capacitation to embrace both 4IR and negative low
environmental impacts.
• South Africa realised it needed to take calculated risks in order to reach its objectives and
open funded platforms were raised for identified talent and incentivisation of sustainable
industrial activity
• A thriving economy and people - South Africa has achieved its Just Transition and is now a
global leader in clean tech (Fiona)
• No one left behind
• Building a resilient, transformed and inclusive economy
• Identifying services sectors we could lead in. Not just primary energy
• SA's inclusive economy leaving no person behind
• SA capitilises on its natural capital to the benefit or all
• South Africans are more resilient (less vulnerable) to catastrophes (environmental,
economic, health) through excellence in education, a thriving Green, climate neutral
Economy which enables entrepreneurship and innovation.
• South Africa aligns skills to demand and reduces unemployment rate to less than 10%.
• SA has created wealth through exploiting new opportunities and is able to share this with its
people
• People are empowered and prosperous. People have the right skills to participate in
opportunities to drive economic growth.
• Equitable ownership of the new economy was achieved through a just transition where no
South African is excluded (Jozef)
• The ambitious targets of the Constitution should be very close to be being achieved, with
conflicts put aside and all working towards a common goal (in different ways at different
scales). People support business activities for their economic contribution which increases
competitiveness and sustainability, and the power of the currency is shown which will
foster further sustainable growth.
• Also look at the NDP and AU 2063 vision
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Trello Board Group B (2050) – Lists ordered by votes (II/II)
• Leading the region with a carbon neutral, sustainable economy which is
matching or exceeding the NDP economic growth ambition and
supporting the eradication of the triple challenges of poverty,
unemployment and inequality.
• Example: Equitable ownership of the new economy was achieved through
a just transition where no South African is excluded
• Cheap electricity generated from wind, solar and natural gas powering
industry.
• SA has become a regional and international leader in clean tech,
leveraging its local natural resources and local, high-skilled talents
• A sustainable economy embracing and beneficiating its natural resources
• South Africa’s economy is thriving based on the ecologically sustainable
use of its natural resource base and the implementation of forward
thinking policies that transition away from extractive and finite resource
exploitation
• SA's manufacturing sector has shown its strength and competitiveness
globally and benefits in terms of job creation and local reliance, with
surplus being in demand worldwide. Under 1(b), the natural capital of
South Africa should be sustainably utilised.
• A people focused economy where growth is inclusive.
• No one left behind. This is crucial: We need to develop a mindset
where we accept that we need strong social safety nets for those who
cannot transition due to various reasons, AND that the jobs we create
need to be decent jobs.
• Through innovation, South Africa is able to solve its own unique
challenges while capitalising on solutions available from other
economies.
• SA has reached carbon neutrality and created a
resilient society and ecologically sustainable
economy through maintaining adaptation ready
ecosystems and healthier, economically active
communities.
• South Africa has build resilience against adverse
local environmental and climate change (e.g.;
food and water security) while achieving its fair
share of climate mitigation
• South Africa has incredible biodiversity and this
must not be lost. Climate change puts this too at
risk. South Africa should become a leader in
environmental matters, while balancing
economic development. How can the two be
delinked? This would be an ambition.
• Environmental degradation in all its dimensions is
over
• Policy landscape that is coherent. Jointly developed
by the PCCC?
• Believe that South Africa needs to has look at New
Industrial Plan based on 1. 1st / 2nd best solar
resource globally and a great wind resource 2. Land
availability (particularly old mining land) 3. 50 year
track record of deploying and operating of
industrial scale Fischer-Tropsh and Haber-Bosch
(green hydrogen) to become a global leader in
sustainable aviation fuel and green hydrocarbons.
• In addition in a world where IEA and IRENA are
predicting the >50% of global electricity will be
generated by renewable energy and battery storage,
South Africa and the region has significant reserves
of the top 40 metals and minerals to be deployed in
renewable energy manufacturing, EV and battery
storage
• 1. Reform energy supply to be cleaner and cheaper,
through increased RE and green H2 usage 2. Clear
national planning and aligned policy framework for
green stimulus investments that take advantage of
green financial instruments 3. Investment in skills
development to prepare the labour force for more
skills-intensive new economy
• Example: Ensure national gas security; Enable /
support creation of new industries e.g.; Green H2,
electric mobility value chain; Reform national
electricity market; Start building new large scale
infrastructure (e.g.; for electric mobility, grid
network etc.)
• Understand the enablers for the 2050 vision and put
policy in place to achieve it
• SA has grown its economy through exploiting new opportunities
• SA is a world leader in at least two sectors, including green hydrogen
production
• Net zero emitting for electricity
What should be our ambition for SA's economy in 2050?
What are key areas for action / policy interventions to enable the journey to this vision?
What should be our ambition for environment and climate matters?
