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University of Southern Queensland | Document title 1
Climate Outlook and Review
July 2018
Author: Roger C Stone
University of Southern Queensland | Centre for Applied Climate Sciences | Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone
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Overview
For Queensland (and northern Australia generally), using our statistical system (SOI phases) and based on a ‘rapidly falling’ SOI Phase at the end of June, for the July to September 2018 period, the SOI phase system
shows generally around a 50%-60% probability of exceeding seasonal long-term median rainfall for many Queensland regions (see map).
However, some areas are now beginning to suggest below median rainfall (see maps attached). Note: these percentages are relative for this time of the year.
The improved BoM POAMA 2.4 model is indicating low rainfall
probability values for many regions for the July to September total period but with higher rainfall probability values for South Australia.
For the longer term (e.g. winter August to October) the European ECMWF GCM forecast system suggests below the long-term normal rainfall for this period.
The MJO: The MJO would most likely be due again in about third week in
July.
Temperatures: for regions, the BoM POAMA 2.4 system indicates above
median maximum temperature probability values for much of Northern Australia. The SOI phase system is suggesting close to normal to above normal maximum temperature values for the July to September period,
2018.
Many of the world’s climate models are predicting
an El Nino pattern to develop around the
southern hemisphere winter and onwards.
In the meantime, the SOI phase system continues to suggest
varied rainfall patterns for Queensland for winter with patchy
areas of slightly above normal rainfall probabilities
for this time of year..
The BoM POAMA 2.4 system is showing
low rainfall probability values for most of Australia.
The SOI phase for the end of June:
‘Rapidly Falling Phase’
The SOI to the end of June was close to minus 6.3 (-6.3).
University of Southern Queensland | Centre for Applied Climate Sciences | Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone
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Figure 1: Forecast rainfall probability values for Queensland - probability of
exceeding the respective long-term seasonal median values overall for the total
July to September 2018 period. Regions shaded blue have a 60%-70% probability
of exceeding median rainfall values relative to this period of exceeding median
values. Regions shaded yellow have a 30% probability of exceeding median rainfall
values relative to this period.
University of Southern Queensland | Centre for Applied Climate Sciences | Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone
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Figure 2: Probability of maximum temperatures averaged over the three-month
period July to September 2018 being above the long-term median for this time of
the year. Regions shaded dark grey have about 50%-60% chance of above median
maximum temperatures Regions shaded lighter grey have a 40% - 50%
probability of exceeding median temperature values.
University of Southern Queensland | Centre for Applied Climate Sciences | Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone
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Figure 3: Probability of minimum temperatures averaged over the three-month
period July to September 2018 being above the long-term median for this time of
the year. Regions shaded grey have a 40% - 50% probability of exceeding median
minimum temperature values. Regions shades yellow have 30%-40% probability
of above median minimum temperature values.
University of Southern Queensland | Centre for Applied Climate Sciences | Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone
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Figure 5: Forecast rainfall probability values for Australia for the overall period July
to September 2018 – (after Stone, Hammer and Marcussen, 1996). Regions shaded
blue have a 60%-70% probability of above median rainfall. Regions shaded grey
have a 40%-50% probability of above median rainfall for this particular overall
period. Regions shaded yellow have a 30%-40% probability of above median rainfall.
Figure 4: Northern Australia probability rainfall values, averaged over the three-
month period July to September 2018 of being above the long-term median for this
time of the year. Regions shaded grey have a 40%-50% probability of above
median rainfall. Regions shaded yellow have a 30% - 40% probability of exceeding
median rainfall values.
University of Southern Queensland | Centre for Applied Climate Sciences | Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone
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Figure 6: Bureau of Meteorology Forecast rainfall probability values for Australia
for the overall period July to September 2018.
University of Southern Queensland | Centre for Applied Climate Sciences | Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone
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Figure 7 (b): recent trend in SOI values (30-day averages) as at 01/07/2018
Figure 7 (a): Monthly SOI values since January 2010 – the most recent phase is
‘rapidly falling phase’ with the SOI very much on an oscillating ‘roller coaster’ ride.
The most recent 30-day average value to 30 June was minus 6.3 (-6.3).
University of Southern Queensland | Centre for Applied Climate Sciences | Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone
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Longer-term forecasts:
The ECMWF and POAMA models provide useful assessments of longer-term rainfall
probability values for agricultural regions. The ECMWF example below suggests only
about a 30-40% probability of above median rainfall for July to September 2018 for
southern Australia.
Figure 8: ECMWF forecast rainfall probability values for eastern Australia – and
the region generally for August to October 2018 (Courtesy ECMWF). Most regions
show about a 20-30% probability of above median rainfall for this seasonal period
for Queensland and Northern Territory (i.e. close to ‘climatology’).
University of Southern Queensland | Centre for Applied Climate Sciences | Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone
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Figure 9: CPC General Circulation Model forecast of sea surface temperature
anomalies through to April 2019 – this model is strongly suggesting El Nino
development over the coming months.
University of Southern Queensland | Centre for Applied Climate Sciences | Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone
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Recent forecast maps
As these forecasts are issued for a three-month validity on a rolling monthly basis,
it has been decided to provide a continuous reference to these forecasts, as below:
Seasonal climate forecast valid
June to August 2018 Seasonal climate forecast valid
1 July to 30 September 2018
Seasonal climate forecast valid
1 April to 30 June 2018
Seasonal climate forecast valid
1 May to 31 July 2018
University of Southern Queensland | Centre for Applied Climate Sciences | Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone
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Seasonal climate forecast valid
1 March to 31 May 2018
Seasonal climate forecast valid
1 February to 30 April 2018
University of Southern Queensland | Centre for Applied Climate Sciences | Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone
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Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)
According to BoM‘s, USQ’s and NOAA’s forecasting systems and analyses, the MJO may next be due again around third week in July. Please also refer to the interesting BoM website (below) for updated information on the MJO.
The information below also presents a ‘one-stop’ shop as requested from industry for
such information to be available.
For updated climate information
Click on the following links:
For the MJO
For weekly SSTs
For easterly (and westerly) wind anomalies across the Pacific
For sub-surface temperatures across the Pacific
For ECMWF forecast products (note the web site for this output has changed)
For ‘plume’ forecasts of SSTs in the central Pacific
For a complete history of the SOI
The Long Paddock
Additional information on ENSO
University of Southern Queensland | Centre for Applied Climate Sciences | Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone
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USQ Research
International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences
Please email Prof Roger Stone at
