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July 2, 2010
Obama Exhorts Congress to Back Immigration Overhaul
“All the NewsThat’s Fit to Print”
National Edition
By Peter Baker
WASHINGTON--In his first speech devoted entirely to immigration policy since taking office, Mr. Obama tried to navigate between what he called the two extremes of the debate, defending his efforts to strengthen border security while promoting a path to citizenship for many of the 11 million people in the United States illegally.
Strengthen border security
WASHINGTON--In his first speech devoted entirely to immigration policy since taking office, Mr. Obama tried to navigate between what he called the two extremes of the debate, defending his efforts to strengthen border security while promoting a path to citizenship for many of the 11 million people in the United States illegally.
WASHINGTON--In his first speech devoted entirely to immigration policy since taking office, Mr. Obama tried to navigate between what he called the two extremes of the debate, defending his efforts to strengthen border security while promoting a path to citizenship for many of the 11 million people in the United States illegally.
Promoting Path to Citizenship
Strengthen Border Security
Operation Gatekeeper (1994): Strengthened border security along the San Diego-Tijuana border
San Diego County
Tijuana, Mexico
Caltran began posting these signs along I-5 in early 90s after dozens of deaths
I. Strengthen Border Security
San Diego Sector Apprehensions (%)
Before 1994 40
2002 10.8
Operation Gatekeeper (1994): Strengthened border security along the San Diego-Tijuana border
San Diego County
Tijuana, Mexico
Caltran began posting these signs along I-5 in early 90s after dozens of deaths
The Wall
Naco Douglas
Deaths in the Arizona Desert, 2000-2004
I. Strengthen Border Security
Drug and Human Smuggling Routes
Drug and Human Smuggling Routes
Primary Smuggling Route
Drug and Human Smuggling Routes
Primary Smuggling Route
Secondary Smuggling Route
Drug and Human Smuggling Routes
Primary Smuggling Route
Secondary Smuggling Route
“Safe” Houses
Figure 1. The Rise in Border Enforcement, 1977-2003
Linewatch hours
INS Budget
Figure 2. Coyote prices, 1975-2003
Linewatch Hours
INS Budget
Coyote Prices
𝐶𝑜𝑦𝑜𝑡𝑒𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒=𝛽0+𝛽1 ∙ h𝐿𝑖𝑛𝑒𝑊𝑎𝑡𝑐 +𝜀
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 900
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Coyote Prices (1990$ per trip)
Line Watch (100,000 of hours per year)
Data: 1977-2003
𝐶𝑜𝑦𝑜𝑡𝑒𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒=210.4+13.20 h𝐿𝑖𝑛𝑒𝑊𝑎𝑡𝑐^(0.77 )
𝐶𝑜𝑦𝑜𝑡𝑒𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒=𝛽0+𝛽1 ∙ h𝐿𝑖𝑛𝑒𝑊𝑎𝑡𝑐 +𝜀
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1000
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Coyote Prices (1990$ per trip)
Line Watch (100,000 of hours per year)
Data: 1977-2003
𝐶𝑜𝑦𝑜𝑡𝑒𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒=210.4+13.20 h𝐿𝑖𝑛𝑒𝑊𝑎𝑡𝑐^(0.77 )
^𝐶𝑜𝑦𝑜𝑡𝑒𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒
S86
D86
Market for Coyote Smuggling Services (CSS), 1986-2003
Price (1990$ per trip)
Quantity
P86 = $300
Q86
P86 = $300
Q86 Q03
Market for Coyote Smuggling Services (CSS), 1986-2003
Price (1990$ per trip)
S03
S86
D86 D03
Quantity
P03 = $1200
Effects of Strengthen Border Security
• No significant reduction in illegal immigration flows.• Routes change and conditions worsen,• The cost of migrating (coyotes & other costs) increase• Migrants stay longer / less seasonal migration• Migrants increasingly bring their families
Bottom Line of economists’ research—migrants respond to changing incentives
Bottom Line of economists’ research—migrants respond to changing incentives
The Immigration EquationBy Roger Lowenstein.
The New York Times Magazine, July 9, 2006
Mannuel I.
Immigrant from Guatemala.
House Painter.
Norma M.
Immigrant from Mexico
Housecleaner.
Salvador C.
Immigrant from Mexico.
Construction.
The question of whether “more job seekers from abroad mean fewer opportunities, or lower wages, for native workers -- is one of the most controversial ideas in labor economics.”
Georgia Manicurists, 1990-2006
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 20060
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
All
Viet
Non-Viet
The Growth, Dispersion and Composition of Manicurists, 1985 to 2006
Replacement or Displacement?
Figure 10.2: Demand and Supply of Rough Laborers
