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JAPAN-US SECURITY ALLIANCE: NORTH KOREAN FACTOR
Anupam Shukla
PhD Scholar
JNU, New Delhi
Abstract
The North Korean Nuclear Crisis is one of the most debated issues of the contemporary
world order. North Korea’s nuclear programme has raised security concerns world over,
following which North Korea has also been the target for several sanctions over the past one
decade and more. While the security concerns over the issue in global context seems
relevant, the immediate threat that lies for Japan is a matter of grave concern for the
Japanese. Historical evidence is a proof that the two nations i.e. Japan and Democratic
People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), have not been in the best of terms since the Korean
occupation by the Japanese and the historical animosity between the two is yet to be
resolved. The Fragile relation between the two nation sustained after the defeat of Japan in
the Second World War, however, the nuclear programme generated by North Korea serves as
one of the key threats for the Japanese security in the contemporary era.
Japan is the only country in the world to have experienced the devastation caused by atomic
bombing and has since renounced the development of the nuclear weapon on the Japanese
soil. Article 9 of the Japanese constitution has also factored in influencing Japan’s decision
on forgoing nuclear weapon as an option to ensure Japan’s national security. However, the
changing global political scenario which is witnessing the rise in China’s military activism
and the perpetual growth of North Korea’s nuclear programme has led several to believe that
Japan’s consideration of a nuclear weapons programme will be witnessed in the near future.
One must evoke the fact that, Japan is one of the most technologically advanced nations of
the world and prior to the infamous Fukushima Daiichi incident of 2011, Japan was the one
of the largest consumer of nuclear generated power in the world. This evidence brings in the
fact that Japan’s technological advancement is already at par with the nuclear weapons state
in the world, namely, the United States, France, United Kingdom, China and Russia and
should Japan choose to become a nuclear power it wouldn’t be a very big challenge for
Japan. This argument however, does not imply that Japan would not face the challenges by
other existing institutions such as the United Nations, United Nations Security Council etc.
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it simply means to bring in the fact the Japan is one of the most technologically developed
nation the world but it has consciously decided not to opt for nuclear weapons. However, the
stringent non-nuclear policy of Japan now, faces the immediate threat of China’s growing
militarism and North Korea’s nuclear programme.
The United States is one of the fore most players with regards to North Korea’s nuclear
regime. It has been vocal throughout the decade in condemning the Kim dynasty and their
authoritarian regime in North Korea. The United States is also Japan’s strongest ally and
Japan has consensually surrendered its security under the United States Security ‘Umbrella’.
The Korean peninsula crisis which has not witnessed any positive progress over decades now
has only factored in strengthening the Japan-US alliance. Japan is aware of its vulnerable
positioning in the matter and it would not be false to assume that Japan’s security (internal
and external) rests upon the Japan-US security alliance. The purpose behind choosing this
particular topic came with the interest in exploring North Korea’s nuclear programme and
also to analyse the impact it has served in the Japan-US relationship.
Introduction
Cold war has come to end in 1991 with the disintegration of USSR. However, politics of
North East Asia especially Korean crisis continued to feature cold war characteristics. Korean
peninsula, Japan - China relationship, crisis over Chinese dream of One-China keep op
propping up various crisis’s time and again. Continuing interference of United States in the
geo politics of North East Asia adds new dimension to these issues. US engagement in the
region despite the end of Cold war continued in the form of military alliances, arms supply,
political mediations etc. In this context role of USA and its close ally Japan is very critical in
addressing the security challenges of North East Asia.
Korean peninsula continued to be in the shadow of military conflict. Regional security
condition is continued to be influenced by unrelenting war between both Korea’s. One lakh
fifty thousand army belonging to both North Korea and South Korea are still facing each
other across the Demilitarized Zone reminding us of critical condition of the region . (Sheela
Smith, 2010). Further North Korean regime’s aggressive posture, continuous militarization
culminating in Nuclearization is a rising threat. US and Japan both consider this as a security
challenge of high proportion.
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Security and political alliance with South Korea is another factor drawing US attention.
Recent developments in Korean peninsula such as Change of leadership, Nuclearization,
Chinese nascent support to North Korean regime, Japanese antagonism to North Korean
armament all drew revived US – Japan attention. However major cause of concern to the
Japan and U.S. in specific is still the attitude of North Korea towards her security and her
continued reliance on nuclear weapons which provided a formidable foreign policy challenge
for Japan and US alliance.
Existing regional security structure underwent a radical change with the economic, political
and military rise of china and her growing animosity with United States. Chinese assertion
over North East Asia in matters of South China Sea, East China Sea, Taiwan widened the
gulf between China and US. US being the resident power in Asia Pacific is now facing stiff
competition from rising China.
China emerged as a great military power in the region by mobilizing huge army, progress in
air defense technology and naval strength. It also amassed huge nuclear arsenal and diverse
launch vehicles over a period of time. China began to pose serious security challenge for the
entire region over maritime territorial disputes with other littoral states of South China Sea
leading to the possibility of direct military conflict. Islands in the South China Sea Spratly
islands, Paracel islands were subjected to the claims and counter claims of China, Taiwan,
Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei. China till date did not involve in any direct
confrontation or attack but it took various measures to assert her control over these islands
leading to complications. 1992 Territorial Waters Law proclaimed that the disputed islands
belonged to China historically and in 1995 China constructed structures on ‘Mischief Reef’
of Palawan islands which were claimed as their territory by Philippines.
Further, China is escalating her maritime disputes with Japan, Philippines, both being
traditional alleys of US. Japan China dispute over Senkaku island of East china Sea has
resulted into many crises. Japan being traditional ally of USA and USA being security
guarantee of Japan, Sino – Japan rivalry has become key issue for US foreign policy. In this
context 2016 defence white paper released by Japan upgraded Chinese threat to Japan from
“Concern” to “Strong Concern” essentially due to Chinese aggression over maritime disputes
and her aggression in air space. Revived US militarization in the area is driven by this
phenomenon.
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Taiwan is another key issue in the North East Asia where Japanese and US interests converge
conflicting with that of China. One China Policy i.e. integration of Taiwan with Mainland
China is still the cornerstone of Chinese Foreign Policy. In this context China is still upset
with the U.S. and Japan that though they derecognized Taiwan yet are still continuing
political and economic relations. China considers this as main obstruction in persuading
Taiwan to join mainland China.
Taiwan is very important not only to US but also to Japan because of its booming economy
and strategic location. Japan is on heavily dependent upon the fuel oil supplies from the
Middle East which provides more than three fourths of its oil demand. Oil imports of Japan
largely by means of oil tankers follow the lanes across Southeast Asia i.e. passing via the
Malacca Straits, the South China Sea, and finally through Taiwan Straits. Any conflict across
this maritimeroute would become a serious threat to Japanese economy. In this context
independence of Taiwan is strategically very crucial for Japan as if Taiwan joins mainland
China, Chinese assertion in the maritime region would become grave threat to Japanese sea
bourn trade. Japan is still considering that Taiwan independence would serve Japanese
interests in a better way.
Russia has always been an important player in this region and emerged as a grave security
threat during the cold war. However, after the end of Cold war Russian threat lost importance
to the Japan and other north East Asian nations. However, no peace treaty was signed
between Japan and Russia after the end of World War leaving them technically at war. Japan
Russia relations were cornered around the issue of Northern territories i.e. Kuril Islands.
During a bilateral summit meeting in Moscow on April 27 2017, Japanese Prime Minister
Shinzo Abe and Russian President Vladimir Putin sought to make concrete progress toward
deepening trust, resolving the issue of the disputed Northern Territories (also known as the
Kuril Islands), and concluding a peace treaty. (Mina Pollmann, 2017)
Japan - Russia relations made considerable headway in the recent decade where in efforts
were made to keep aside the controversial northern territories issue aside and to go ahead
with economic times. Japan and Russia recently agreed to survey the disputed Northern
Territories using public private cooperation so that they can focus on economic cooperation.
Japan and Russia have great potential for cooperation in the areas of aqua culture, urchin
farming and ecotourism.
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In fact, with respect to the issue of North Korean Nuclearization Japan is trying to become
less U.S.-centric by actively pursuing Russian cooperation. In the joint press conference after
the bilateral summit Japan and Russia gave a call for the international community not to
resort verbal threats which may instigate North Korean regime on the matter of nuclear
weapons and declared to work together towards denuclearization of Korean peninsula.
However, it is to be noted that Japan Russia relationship is always kept hostage on Russian
relations with US and her western allies. One crisis such as Russian annexation of Crimea or
the U.S. missile strike on Syria regime has the potential to derail Japan Russia relations. In
fact Japan Russia relations provide classic example for Japanese over -dependence on US for
her diplomacy.
3.2 Japan-Us Security Ties: a Background
Japan was peacefully occupied by US after the world war. Thus, US military presence in
Japan began. “The US military presence in Japan began at the end of World War II.
Okinawa’sproximity to potential hot spots determines its strategic importance in the security
and defense policy of Japan – US relationship.” (Lachowski, 2007; p: 39). Alliance of United
States with Japan began with the signing of the Treaty of Peace in the year 1951. It restored
full sovereignty of Japan over its land and territorial waters. It stated that Japan as a nation is
entitled for individual and collective self-defense. By this agreement Japan came from the
occupation of US and was allowed to enter into alliances and collective security treaties.
Japan signed such a treaty with the United States on the same day. “The essence of bilateral
relationship that developed between Japan and US in the aftermath of Word Was II was one
in which Japan relied on the US to underwrite its security while maintaining a low diplomatic
profile and concentrating on the reconstructing the Japanese economy” (Beeson,2007; p:74).
As Beeson analyzed security alliance with US provided Japan with opportunity to unleash an
economic miracle.
In 1954, Japan signed a Mutual Defense Assistance Agreement with US, which facilitated
US supply of military equipment and technology to Japan. Japan began to develop military
strength with this support. ‘Defense Agency Establishment Law’ and the ‘Self-Defense
Forces Law’ enacted by Japan provided the legal base. All these developments finally led to
the establishment of Japanese Self-Defense Forces in order to protect Japan from external
aggression on land, air and water. US military supplies played the key role in the setup of
SDF.
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However, Japan Us alliance did not sail through without opposition. Japanese left parties
always opposed Japan’s military subordination to US and expressed fear becoming US
satellite state. Treaty faced major opposition in 1960 when it was attempted for renewal.
However growing security challenges in the North East Asia due to the rise of Communist
China, Korean conflict, Taiwan issue continued interdependence of Japan and US. Under
these circumstances Japan tried to revive the security treaty but began to demand explicit
commitment from the United States on various matters such as commitment to protect Japan
from any external threat, removal of provisions dealing with internal security, more proactive
consultations, and a definite date of termination for the treaty. US also began to demand
explicit Japanese commitment to participate proactively in the in the defense of the region,
Including Guam.
Finally, Japan and US concluded the ‘Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security’ in 1960,
which largely confirmed to the position of Japan. The new document eliminated the passage
in the 1951 treaty (Introduction) that assigns the United States responsibility for Japan’s
defense; omitted a provision permitting the US military to assist in putting down internal
disturbances; and clarified the duration of the treaty. In so doing, it rectified the legal
inequalities built into the 1951 arrangements. (Nakashima, 2016). Japan achieved her goals in
the new treaty, while the United States again did not succeed to convince Japan to play larger
role in regional security.
3.2 (i) Reversion of Okinawa: Sea change in Japan - US partnership Vietnam War 1965 brought sea change in Japan US alliance in which US utilized Okinawa
bases for her war effort raising tensions in Japan. The Japanese government was also
concerned about domestic opposition to the war and international criticism of Japan’s role.
These developments led to a movement within Japan to remove inequalities of 1960 treaty
and also to take over control of Okinawa prefecture. On the other hand, US began to demand
concessions beyond the purview of 1960 treaty such as free usage of Okinawa bases and to
place nuclear weapons in the prefecture .US demand to place nuclear weapons in Okinawa
archipelago directly violated Japan’s nuclear policy. These issues brought back long pending
problems of Japan US alliance to the fore such as the issue of Self Esteem, National pride,
etc. Finally, US compromised with Japan on the matter of Okinawa islands understanding
popular opposition for its presence and agreed to return the islands in 1969 and were handed
over physically by 1972.US even withdrew her nuclear weapons from Okinawa bases.
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Initial perception of 1970’s that the U.S. would gradually withdrew from Asia owing to
humiliation in Vietnam but various political developments of Asia felicitated continuation of
US military presence. Political crisis in China during the last phase of Mao’s rule, border
conflict between China and Russia political crisis in Cambodia leading to Vietnam’s invasion
of Cambodia in 1978, helped US continued presence in the region.
By the beginning of seventies Japan US relationship underwent dramatic change especially
due to US accommodation of PRC against her established opposition to communist regime.
On the other hand, oil crisis of 1973 due to Yom Kippur War brought about economic crisis
in Japan which began to think beyond alliance with US. Japan gradually began to lose full
confidence on US security guarantee. Under these circumstances Japan took up to revise her
defense thinking and brought about a comprehensive ‘National Defence Program Outline’. It
was the first comprehensive defense plan prepared by Japan. Its main objective was to
strengthen defense potential of Japan beyond the purview of alliance with US. It also brought
new legal framework for military cooperation with US by bringing about “Guidelines for
Defense Cooperation” with the US by formulating the roles between the two forces. Japan
and US launched joint military exercises and began to improve interoperability. Japan’s SDF
(Self - Defence Forces) gained strength during these days.
Japan US defense relations were impacted by developments such as US Soviet relations,
Iran-Iraq war, growing tensions in East Asia leading to build up of US forces in area. Japan
strongly stood by US in all these issues and also focused on building her SDF. Japanese PM
Nasakone and US president Reagan maintained very good personal relationship as well.
However, tensions did not escalate into a major was especially due to the coming of Michal
Gorbachev as head of USSR. His accommodative policies and reforms led to the reduction of
tensions and smoothened US Soviet rivalry. Decline of communism in Europe, change in
world outlook on China and her economic relations with USA reduced the intensity of Cold
war. Despite these developments U.S. continued her military presence in the north East Asia.
“The Japanese Foreign minister Shintaro Abe on the occasion of Japan US alliance
celebrations in Washington emphasized the treaty role as a ‘framework for security, stability
and development in the Asia Pacific region”. (Charles Smith, 1990)
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End of cold war, shift in US defense policy, and removal USSR threat brought sea change in
Japanese defense thinking and her security partnership with US. On one hand while Japan
continued to support the US military presence in the region, on the other hand it faced
tensions with US on bilateral front. Under these circumstances Gulf war of 1991 lead to a
new debate over Japan’s defense policy.US did not take Japan into confidence before
declaring war over Iraq and neither did appreciate Japan’s assistance. Japan suffered heavily
due to post war oil shock. These developments brought a shift in foreign policy. Japan began
to think of playing an assertive and independent role at in international matters. In 1992
Japan adopted a bill by which Self Defense Forces can participate in UN peace keeping
operations. Japan also began to take independent stands on some important issues. Japan was
first lifted economic sanctions on china which were imposed by international community
after the Tiananmen Square incident before any other nation could do. “Though alliance with
U.S. continued to be the ‘cornerstone’ of Japan foreign policy yet Japan also tried to move
towards a more ‘UN centred’ foreign policy” (Lalima Verma,1993 P: 78)
Disintegration of USSR led to swift changes in the regions security architecture,
characterized by rising China alongside a rise of nuclear weapons in North Korea. North
Korean missile crisis of the mid-1990’s and withdrawal from NPT brought Japan and US
again closer. Tensions in the region were aggravated by the 1996 Taiwan Strait Missile Crisis where in
China tested her missiles over Taiwan straits. As a response U.S. sent two of her aircraft
carriers into the region.
In response to the burgeoning security instability, the alliance adopted the new U.S.-Japan
Defense Guidelines in September 1997 that expanded the allowance of Japan’s military
operations from its home islands to “surrounding areas” a move some perceived as Japan
taking greater responsibility for its own defense. “These crises reminded us in Washington
and Tokyo that we weren’t really quite out of the Cold War in Northeast Asia. The flash
points (in the 1990s) continued to challenge the alliance and its response.” (Beina Xu, 2014)
Early 2000‘shas provided much defined security threat for both Japan and US in the form of
assertive China and belligerent North Korea. On the other hand, US foreign policy during
Bush era alienated some of the allies there by US dependence on Japan increased.
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Japan deployed her troops in Iraq part of US led alliance. Same time Japan US joint
development of anti-missile defense systems started. These developments created an
assumption that Japan is gradually emerging as key and pivotal ally of the U.S. in the Asia
pacific.
Japan US defense partnership began under the influence of cold war politics due to the threat
of USSR continued under the influence of development of security challenges of north East
Asia. In the due course of time with the weaning away of communist bloc especially in late
80’s and 90’s, the alliance lacked motivation due to definite security threat. Rise of China in
post liberalization first threatened the economy of Japan. Chinese assertion in South China
Sea, East China Sea, Taiwan crisis created much needed impetus to Japan US security
alliance. However, rise of nuclear weapons in North Korea, withdrawal from NPT, ability to
develop launch vehicles provided direct existential threat to Japan. A view to hold nuclear
weapons also rose up in Japan political spectrum. In this context Japan US relationship in the
recent times largely focused around containing North Korea.
3.2 (ii) North Korean Nuclear Assertion and the move in Japan US Alliance:
Existential threat for Japan in the 21’st century surprisingly did not come from the rising
economic and military power of the region i.e. Peoples republic of china but from
economically crippled, politically isolated North Korea. North Korea under dynastic rule of
Kim II Sung adopted belligerent nature and carved her identity based on threat and fear
especially as it is surrounded by rising economic giants. Acquiring nuclear weapons was the
culmination of its militarism. Though North Korea joined NPT in 1985 yet it was not sincere in its commitment to peaceful
use of nuclear technology. From the day one itself it did not fully comply with IAEA
regulations. Meanwhile North Korea pursued missile development despite US sanctions and
international opposition. In 1993 it denied access to her nuclear waste lines for IAEA even
threatened to withdrew from NPT. However, this crisis was averted by Jimmy Carter’s
negotiations which resulted into the signing of an “Agreed Framework” with US.
US North Korean agreement had many positive elements. ’Agreed Framework’ stipulated
that North Korea will give up her nuclear activities and finally destroy her nuclear
installations. It meant that North Korea would dismantle one already existing and two under
construction facilities.
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North Korea would accede to ‘Special Inspections’ under IAEA regime also would remove
already spent fuel rods to another nation. In return, North Korea would receive two Light
Water Reactors and supply of fuel oil annually to supplement her energy demand. North
would also be benefited by full normalization relations with US. Agreed Framework called
for the beginning of trilateral talks involving Japan-US-North Korea to discuss North Korean
controversial missile development program.
Japan positively responded for US North Korea negotiations. In fact, they corresponded with
Japan’s negotiations with North Korea over normalization of ties, support for UN
membership, in fact took a great leap forward with Japanese apology over her colonial rule.
However, issue of compensation demanded by North Korea, issue of abductions above all
continuing missile program of North Korea remained major trouble spots. On these matters
Japan and US supported each other and maintained unity of thought.
However, the thaw was not very effective and proved temporary. North Korean efforts to
develop and even export missile technology posed grave security challenge for Japan and US.
In 1998 in order to counter North Korean medium range missile test, US dispatched her
reconnaissance air craft and ship to Japan. For the time being North Korea withdrew from the
test but continued her missile development programs which lead to launch of a ‘Taepo Dong-
1 missile (1,500-2,000 km range)’ that crossed over Japan’s native islands before falling onto
the sea. North Koreas aid it was an attempt to launch a satellite into orbit which was not
accepted by US experts. Japan also reacted by suspending her economic support for the LWR
development for some time period i.e. till November 1998. “The real reason for the North
Korean missile is its target, which is Japan, and the reason the target is Japan, is that the
American military bases are here.” (Toshiyuki Shikata, 1998). Same time intrusions into
Japan’s territorial waters by North Korean spy boats also aggravated the threat. Japan US
alliance responded by strengthening their ballistic missile defense systems.
9/11 attacks and consequent aggressive posture by USA brought about the collapse of the
thaw with North Korea. Relations underwent a drastic turn with the Bush’s axis of evil
speech where in North Korea was branded along with Iran and Iraq as threat to world peace
due to hoarding of WMD. He also criticized North Korea for spending too much money on
WMD development where in neglecting basic needs of people including food. Following the
news that U.S. nuclear posture review is thinking of using nuclear weapons against North
Korea, North Korea issued a counter threat of abrogating all agreements with US and also to
attack mainland US.
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Despite these rising tensions Japan tried to tame North Korea in the first ever Japan-North
Korea summit. North Korea agreed to extend its moratorium on missile tests, in place since
1999 in return to economic assistance, low-interest long-term loans from Japan. However,
tensions continued with North Korea exporting her missile technology, US imposing
sanctions and North Korea defying IAEA regulations. Finally, all these developments
culminated in North Korea unilaterally withdrawing from NPT by January 11 2003. Japanese
security policy and her dependence on US protection underwent a major transformation with
nuclear clouds surrounding Korean peninsula.
However, negotiations began in 2003 itself among North Korea, US and China. First time
North Korea reportedly admitted to possess nuclear weapons sending shock waves to
neighbouring nations especially Japan. Further these trilateral talks were enlarged to Six
Party Talks by including all important stake players i.e. Japan, South Korea and Russia. Six
Party talks gave temporary respite to tensions but did not yield any concrete results. North
Korea pursued her nuclear mission unrelenting alleging treat from US.
Japan’s dealing with North Korean nuclearization was a mix of internationalism and bilateral
activism. Before 1998 missile crisis Japan was not very much concerned about her being
side-lined on the North Korean matter, not being participant of Trilateral Coordination and
Oversight Group (TCOG) but there after began active interaction. However, Japan could not
completely focus on nuclearization alone due to her demands over abductions. Japan tried to
engage with other stake holders i.e. South Korea, Russia and China. Though Japan believed
in multilateral format such as TCOG yet it always stressed to deepen bilateral relationship
with, China, South Korea, and even Russia to “create a stable environment” to deal with
North Korea. (KNI 1999)
Tokyo’s belief in bilateral channels led to direct negotiations with to the Kim Jong-Il
government where ministerial meetings were conducted leading to summit level negotiations.
There emerged intense diplomatic activity between Japan and North Korea in the next four
years. North Korea took it in another way where it believed that these crises are helping her
diplomatically attracting the attention of Japan which became ready to discuss all the bilateral
issues.
Logical culmination of these negotiations was the visit of Japanese PM Junichiro Koizumi to
North Korea in Sep 2002. This summit led to sea change in Japan–North Korea key problem
of adductions where Kim Jong IL admitted to these abductions.
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Koizumi also positively called for the end of international alienation of North Korea and gave
a call for multilateral dialogue involving all stakeholders of the region. Japanese bilateral and
multilateral initiatives to deal with North Korea outside the framework of association with
US were very unique and are an expression of Japan’s dissatisfaction with US side-lining
Japan on the matter. However, Japan’s repeated calls for multilateral negotiations to address
North Korean nuclearization did not find much impact over international community. It is
only after 2003 Bush administration started throwing weight against multilateral forum.
During the six-party talks, during 2003-2008, Japan participated actively but had its own
agenda and focus areas beyond the scope of six-part talks. Japans participation in the talks is
influenced by resolving the abductions issue and achieving de nuclearization of Korean
peninsula. However, owing to her domestic pressures Japan could not provide leadership to
negotiations in fact was diplomatically isolated. In a way it could not focus on the core and
long term strategic issue of de-nuclearization. Japan’s excessive focus on abductions issue
denied her the opportunity to lead six-party talks. Japan did not adhere to the collective
emergency energy assistance decided during “Initial Actions for the Implementation of the
Joint Statement.”
Policies of successive prime ministers of Japan played important role in Japanese role.
Koizumi adopted conciliatory approach by bilateral negotiations, first ever summit and
Pyongyang Declaration. On the other hand Abe Shinzo of his own party who was even part
of Koizumi’s cabinet began to use the issue of the abductees for his political ascent in fact he
made the issue of abductions his pet-project Shinzo Abe took over the reins of Japan as a
successor of Koizumi in September 2006, began to take up the issue with North Korea
demanding quick actions. Japan secured international support for abductions issue not only
from US but also from G8 and UNO. However later on international community began to criticize Japan’s over
insistence on abductions issue there by trying to hijack six-part talks which are intended to
deal with North Korean nuclearization.
Abe resigned in September 2007 owing to health issues and the power passed into the hands
of Prime Minister Fukuda. Fukuda believed in conciliatory approach towards North Korea
but his predecessor’s elevation of abductee issue in the Japanese public domain came in way
of his approach.
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He was forced to thread the relations in careful manner so as to satisfy Japanese public
aspirations. However, Fukuda was categorical is giving Nuclearization of North Korea more
important than the issue of abductions. Fukuda believed that the Six-Party Talks as an
important forum to discuss larger issues of regional security. However, on the side-lines of
multilateral negotiations he began to organize bilateral talks with North Korea. By June 2008
improvement came in Japan North Korea relations partly due to Fukuda’s initiatives and
partly due to US diplomacy where in North Korea agreed to reopen investigation into the
matter of abductees and Japan began to lift some economic sanctions. However, much
progress was not achieved due to failure on part of North Korea in adhering to the agreement.
However, Japan took proactive steps as a member of international community on the issue of
Nuclearization of North Korea. Japan was stubborn in acting against North Korea whenever it
did not fulfil her international obligations under United Nations framework. In this context
Japan worked very closely with United States, though it was not a permanent United Nations
Security Council member, “Japan was an active, driving force in proposing and negotiating
for the three Security Council resolutions (1695, 1718, and 1874) adopted with regard to
North Korea’s missile launches and nuclear tests, and Japan drafted Resolution 1695 and
cosponsored Resolution 1874. Japan worked especially closely with the US to push for a
reference to Chapter 7 of the UN Charter that authorizes the use of force or economic
sanctions. Moreover, Japan was also quick to implement these sanctions, directly through
new domestic legislation, the North Korea Human Rights Law (June 2006) as well as
indirectly through laws such as the Law on Liability for Oil Pollution Damage (amended
March 2005). Japan also showed no hesitation in extending sanctions in April 2008 when
there had been no concrete results. Japan’s strong stance against North Korean missile and
nuclear development is a direct reflection of Japan’s awareness, in both the government and
public opinion, of its vulnerability in the face of such weapons “(Nicole M. Finnemann,
Sarah Howe, Abraham Kim and Florence Lowe-Lee, 2011). However, UN sanctions did not have much impact upon North Korea due to various issues.
Major problem was opposition from PRC and Russia, as owing to their concerns over US
policies in the region, they did not fully cooperate. Another issue was lack of uniform
compliance among member nations in cutting down aid to North Korea. Japan was
disappointed with this Luke warm approach of other nations and went ahead with her focus
on military alliance with US. Since 2008 Japan US alliance focus over anti-ballistic missile
technology increased greatly resulting in three successful anti-missile tests.
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Japan strengthened her SDF by incorporating a fleet of Aegis-capable destroyers, land-based
PAC-3 antimissile batteries, and by incorporating advanced X-band radar systems. In a way
Japan and US also began to follow the pressure tactics of North Korea where they began to
use their anti-missile technology to pressurize North Korea to give up her nuclear program
and to join negotiations.
Democratic Party of Japan dethroned LDP in 2009 in a dramatic election and brought an end
to long conservative rule. Initially, DPJ did not completely deviate from the earlier policy of
Japan towards North Korea and took strong view of the issues like Nuclearization and
abductions. However, as the time progressed DPJ bought in new ideas. It contemplated
‘Northeast Asia nuclear weapon-free zone concept’ and proposed the same to both Koreas
along with US, Russia and China. DPJ believed if entire region is out of nuclear presence
North Korea won’t be needing nuclear weapons and also Japan would not consider them as
an option of security. DPJ rule marked a departure from earlier policy of dependence on US
for Asian diplomacy. DPJ leaders tried to build up East Asian community by improving
relations with China, South Korea and even Russia. However, none of these measures took
headway essentially due to political instability under DPJ rule.
3.2 (iii) Abe’s assertive foreign policy and drift in Japanese policy over North Korea
Shinzo Abe was famously called as “First Abduction Prime Minister “when he first took over
his first term. Abe’s hard line against North Korea gained the support of the Japanese public,
and when he became Prime Minister, Abe inevitably relied mostly on sanctions against North
Korea, leading to stalled progress on the abduction issue. He even launched a headquarters
for the abduction issue with an “Abduction affairs Minister”. North Korea’s reaction
remained relatively consistent throughout the first Abe administration, and toning down of its
confrontational rhetoric occurred only toward the end of the regime. Furthermore, under the
first Abe administration, North Korea claimed that the abduction issue had been “resolved”
with the repatriation of five abductees and their seven children back to Japan, as well as the repatriation of the purported remains of Megumi Yokotain accordance with the wishes of her
parents.
However, when Abe returned as Prime Minister five years later, he took on a different
approach toward North Korea marked by “Dialogue and Pressure”. Abe made his plan very
clear in his first general policy speech to the Japanese Diet. “Above all else is the resolution
of the abduction issue.
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My mission will not be finished until the day arrives that the families of all the abductees are
able to hold their relatives in their arms. Under a policy of ‘dialogue and pressure’ with North
Korea, I will do my utmost to achieve the three points of ensuring the safety and the
immediate return to Japan of all the abductees, obtaining a full accounting concerning the
abductions, and realizing the handover of the perpetrators of the abductions. I will
comprehensively resolve the issues of abduction as well as (Pyongyang’s) nuclear and
missile programs in accordance with the Pyongyang Declaration. We want to fulfil our
responsibilities in cooperation with international society. If the issue is not resolved, pressure
must naturally be maintained.”(Abe Shinzo, Jan 2013)
By the time Abe came back to power North Korean problem got aggravated. North Korea
with her repeated nuclear and missile tests emerged as a grave threat for not only Japan but
also to South Korea and US. Six Party talks did not yield any concrete results. However, Abe
gave again abductions prime importance. He appointed Isao Iijima, his advisor as special
envoy and arranged his quick visit to North Korea in May 2013. It was a surprise for both US
and South Korea. This sudden visit of Abe created sensation in the diplomatic circles of both
US and South Korea as they believed that it would subvert their diplomacy over North Korea
to denuclearize it. However, Abe was able to convince that this was only related to the issue
of abductions and he is not going against international strategy on the nuclear matter.
3.2 (iv) Escalation dynamics under Kim Jong-Un
Parallel to Abe’s rise in Japan, North Korea underwent a political transformation by the end
of 2011 with King Jong-un coming to power in place of his deceased father. He adopted an
aggressive foreign policy where in every warning by international community was responded
with display of armed strength. North Korea aggressively pursued missile and nuclear
technology tests under the new regime. In Feb 2012 Kim Jong UN agreed to halt nuclear and
missile tests but in April 2012 he tested a long-range missile in the guise of satellite launch
which failed. However, in December 2012 North Korea successfully launched a satellite into
orbit which Japan and US considered as an attempt to test long range missile. Kim Jong-Un gave a grave threat to the peace of East Asia in 2013by conducting another
underground nuclear test. International community led by US severely criticized the act and
unleashed stringent sanctions to deter Kim to further pursue tests. However, this strategy did
not work. Kim Jong UN adopted a twin strategy on displaying military strength and
simultaneously calling US for negotiations.
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He wanted to cement himself as powerful leader not only in his nation but in the entire
region. In fact, in the first two years under Kim Jong-un, North Korea continued to test her
major weapons strength repeatedly in quick intervals. Even before the third nuclear test he
unleashed his missile tests in April and December 2012. Further he strongly objected to the
regular Foal Eagle/Key Resolve exercises of US and South Korea. In 2013 Kim Jong-Un
displayed his aggressive posture in response to yearly military exercises of US and South
Korea by declaring the armistice agreement which ended the 1950-53 war as “invalid”.
United States also responded by showcasing her potential by unleashing Long range nuclear
capable B-2 bombers over the region.
In 2013, response of North Korea against the Foal Eagle/Key Resolve exercises was
unexpected where North Korea closed down Kaesong Industrial Complex(a joint venture
with South Korea), and nuclear threats to Japan and US. North Korea responded in the same
manner to the 2014 Foal Eagle/Key Resolve exercises by launching many Soviet supplied
Scud missiles over Sea of Japan. The 102nd anniversary of Kim IL- Sung’s birth marked
another test of strength of North Korea which launched another version of Taepodong
missile. Again, the milestone passed without incident. Tensions reached such a level that
many believed that North Korea would violently react to the President Barak Obama’s trip to
Japan and South Korea (April2014). However, belying all expectations Kim did not respond.
3.2 (v) Response of Japan US alliance to the escalation of North Korean aggression
Japanese military and political alliance with US emerged in the aftermath of World War II.
Over a period of time it emerged as the most important pillar of U.S. military presence in
Asia.US forces use more than 80 military facilities is Japan housing around 50000 forces. In
1991 Japan US alliance underwent a dramatic shift with the disappearance of Soviet threat
and US rapprochement with PRC. 9/11 attacks on US and rise of terrorism as a global
security challenge rejuvenated US military ties with Japan where in some believed that Japan
will give up her pacifist posture. In the beginning of 21st century Japan US relations
underwent some turbulence due to various issues such as Bush administration reach out to
Nuclear North Korea, Japans delay in base location shift in Okinawa etc., Coming of Democratic Party of Japan to rule brought some policy changes. Japan attempted
to pursue Asia-centric foreign policy outside the purview of alliance with US and even
opposed relocation of the Futenma air base in Okinawa.
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However North East Asian security situation further degraded due to North Korean
aggression and Chinese maritime assertion there by again brought back the importance of
Japan US alliance. US ‘Pivot to Asia policy” attempting at rebalancing the Asia and Shinzo
Abe’s twin strategy of strengthening SDF along with forging much stronger alliance with US
reinvigorated Japan-US alliance. In fact, lack of strong political opposition back home,
encouragement by US facilitated Abe in pursuing his idea of strengthening Japanese armed
forces.
“Specifically, Abe has adjusted Japan’s interpretation of its constitution in a way to allow the
exercise of right to collective self-defense, passed a package of security legislation with a
legal framework for the new interpretation, modestly increased Japan’s defense budget,
relaxed Japan’s previous ban on arms exports, established a National Security Council to
facilitate quick decision making, passed a ‘State Secrets’ bill that allows for more intelligence
sharing with the United States, and tried to implement the Japan-US agreement to relocate a
controversial marine airbase in Okinawa.“ (Emma Chanlett-Avery, Ian E. Rinehart, 2016:
17). Rising existential threats from North Korea, maritime disputes with China are the main
factors that facilitated this transformation.
3.2 (vi) Frame work of Japan-US security alliance:
The Japan-US alliance developed from the times of US occupation of Japan based on many
bilateral agreements beginning with 1960 Mutual Defense Treaty and the supplementary
1960 Status of Forces Agreement, which explains the position, roles, and responsibilities of
US forces in Japan. Later on Japan and U.S drafted detailed guidelines for their cooperation
referred to as “The Bilateral Mutual Defense Guidelines (MDG)”, in 1978 and which was
revised from time to time lastly in 2015 provided policy framework for the alliance:
“MDG outlines how the U.S. and Japanese militaries will interact in peacetime and in
war as the basic parameters for defense cooperation based on a division of labor.
Japan-US dialogue on the Roles, Missions, and Capabilities (RMC) of the two
militaries derives from the MDG and gives actual manifestation to the policy
guidelines” (Rinehart E Ian,2015).
Security Consultative Committee (SCC) formed at the level of cabinet ministers is very
important body for US Japan alliance and defense cooperation. “SCC is formed with the U.S.
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Secretaries of Defense and State and their Japanese counterparts, and thus known as the
‘2+2’, the SCC meets roughly annually and issues joint statements that reflect present
alliance concerns and provide concrete guidance for the near-term Cabinet-level Security
Consultative Committee(SCC). 2011 joint statement of SCC listed 24 common strategic
objectives, with focus on acute security challenge coming from North Korean
aggression.”(Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, 2011).
SCC joint statement following the rise of Abe in 2013 is a landmark document in Japan US
alliance. It gave a framework for elevated U.S.-Japan defense cooperation. Through this
statement both nations declared to revise and reinvigorate the bilateral MDG in order to meet
the challenges coming from new threats especially from North Korea, and in accordance with
Japan’s defense reforms. US expressed her support for Japan’s idea of establishing ‘National
Security Council’ on the lines of its NSC and its idea to exercise the right of collective self-
defense. This statement also declared the intention to deploy most advanced U.S. military
systems to Japan in the near future.
As a continuation of these developments, Japan and US issued revised Bilateral Defence
Guidelines in June 2015 where in Japan US alliance was sought to strengthen by
development of defense technology, and by improving interoperability of the both nation’s
forces. These guidelines also accounted for the complex security threats of the 21st century
such as Nuclearization, Cyber Security etc. New defense guidelines addressed Japan US
cooperation on cyber security, the use of space for military defense, and the ballistic missile
defense system. These areas were newly introduced in the bilateral guidelines. “Bilateral
Defence Guidelines of 2013 expanded the scope of Japan US alliance into the defense of sea
lanes and, potential Japanese contributions to U.S. military operations outside East Asia. The
guidelines established a standing Alliance Coordination Mechanism (ACM), as the main
body for coordinating a bilateral response to contingencies.” (Tatsumi Yuki, 2015)
U.S. Army Japan (USJ) had setup ‘Camp Zama’ as headquarter of forward operations in the
year 2010at a distance of 25 km from Tokyo. It was designed to function as a ‘Bilateral joint
headquarters to provide command leadership for any contingency operations. In 2013 Japan
also corresponded to this move by moving the headquarters of “The Japanese Ground Self-
Defense Force (GSDF) Central Readiness Force” to Camp Zama. There by Camp Zama
emerged as location of both nations’ service headquarters which greatly enabled coordination
between Japanese and the U.S. militaries.
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These structural changes provided support for the joint training exercises and joint use of
facilities there by led to the improvement in the interoperability of the forces of both nations.
“The SDF conducted its first joint drill overseas in a large amphibious assault exercise with
the U.S. military in California in June 2013. Japan got access to new training facilities on
Guam and the Northern Marianas Islands as well” (Ashton Adam 2015)
3.2 (vii) Japan US alliance on maritime security The Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force (MDSF) is a standout amongst the most
competent naval forces on the planet working intimately with its U.S. partners where just
about 100 joint activities are directed every year. MSDF and US naval force secures ocean
lines of correspondence and under new thought of aggregate self-preservation began ensuring
even unified vessels.
“MSDF assisted US in various operations such as: refuelling coalition vessels in the
Indian Ocean active in Operation Enduring Freedom and, at times, an Aegis
destroyer escort; the dispatch of several ships, helicopters, and transport aircraft to
assist in disaster relief after the December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami; participation
in the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) multinational exercises; and the
deployment of MSDF vessels for anti-piracy missions off the coast of Somalia. The
MSDF has been engaged in counter-piracy activities in the Gulf of Aden since March
2009.Japanese vessels and P-3C patrol aircraft have escorted over 3,600 commercial
ships and conducted over 1,300 surveillance flights.” (Emma Chanlet Avery, Ian E.
Rinehart, 2016: 22). MSDF also setup her base in Djibouti where around 200 personnel were stationed. Rise of
MSDF coordination with US is extremely important in the wage of rising China and North
Korea especially in the maritime arena.
US aircraft carrier has been based at Yokosuka, Japan, near Tokyo since 1970’s, along with
the other ships that constitute its strike group. However, US is contemplating stationing of
second air craft carrier in the western pacific in association with Japan. However in recent
times this demand gained momentum owing to rising threat from China and North Korea.
‘Centre for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA)’report of 2015 advocated this
measure which was later supported by ‘Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)’
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3.2 (viii) Japan US Alliance Ballistic Missile defense cooperation: North Korean Factor Japan - U.S efforts on developing ballistic missile defense (BMD) is one of the most
important aspects of bilateral security cooperation wherein they conducted joint research
projects as early as in 1980’s. However real breakthrough was achieved in 2003 when
Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi decided to procure BMD systems for national
security especially from growing nuclear missile threat from North Korea. Under the
initiative of Koizumi, Japan purchased BMD technologies and interceptors from US
emerging as the ‘second-most potent BMD capability’ of the world.
“Japanese Self Defence Forces have 17 PAC-3 units deployed across the Japanese
archipelago and six vessels with Aegis air/missile defense software, four of which are
equipped with SM-3 Block IA interceptors. The U.S. military has also deployed PAC-3 units
at its bases in Japan and Aegis BMD-capable vessels in the surrounding seas. To complement
the array of advanced Japanese radars, the United States has two AN/TPY-2 X-band radars in
Japan” (Takashahi Sugio 2012). Japan–US BMD partnership acted as a key driver for
improvement of overall interoperability of forces of the both nations.
A Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) report of June 2012 stated that “the
United States and Japan ‘have essentially created a joint command relationship from the
perspective of any possible adversary.’ Japan US have setup a Joint Operating Command
Centre at Yokota Air Base, located outside Tokyo which receives information from 28
nations to create a common operating picture. This information-sharing arrangement
improved the effectiveness of target identification, tracking, and interceptor cueing. In fact,
North Korea’s long-range missile launches in 2009 and 2012 provided opportunities for the
US and Japan to test their BMD systems in real-life circumstances” (David J. Berteau and
Michael J. Green 2012).
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Map of US military facilities in Japan
Source: US Congressional Research Service report no 17 on Japan US alliance
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3.2 (ix) Extended Deterrence of US to Japan
The developing worries in Tokyo about development of nuclear weapons by North Korea and
Chinese modernization of its nuclear stockpile in the 2000s incited restored consideration
regarding the U.S. strategy of ‘Extended Deterrence’, also known as the ‘Nuclear
umbrella.’(Brad Roberts, 2013). In 2010, Japan and US began a new wave of dialogue
referred to as‘ Extended Deterrence Dialogue’ there by recognizing that US credibility as
security guarantee of Japan depends upon the effectiveness of nuclear umbrella. Coming of
Abe and his renewed emphasis on defence strengthened Japanese association with US on the
matters of nuclear protection. Japan’s dependency over US nuclear protection can be
understood by its opposition to the US declaration that her nuclear weapons are only meant to
deter attack. Japan wanted US to adopt more assertive nuclear policy. Japan also focused on
development of BMD capabilities through which tried to gain protection from nuclear attack.
“The number of U.S. and Japanese BMD interceptors is judged to be sufficient for deterring
North Korea without affecting strategic stability with China. In the future, Japan even
developed potential to go for conventional strike capability with the intent to augment
extended deterrence” (Ariana Navarro Rowberry, 2014).
3.2 (x) U.S. Arms Sales to Japan: Rise after 2013 Japan is one of the main purchasers of U.S military equipment as it has lot of privileges in
this regard owing to her ‘NATO plus Five country’1 status. During the five-year timeframe of
2010-2014, ‘U.S. foreign military sales’ (FMS) of military weapons and other supplies to
Japan averaged around $1.19 billion per year. These military sales enabled SDF to hold US
military equipment more than any other ally of US. “Japanese companies domestically
produce some equipment under license, including sophisticated systems like the F-15 fighter
aircraft, and other equipment is purchased “off the shelf” from U.S. companies” (Gavan
Gray, 2013).
Beginning with 2013 Japan began to buy high profile military equipment of U.S such as“F-35
Joint Strike Fighters,RQ-4 “Global Hawk” unmanned aerial vehicles , V-22 “Osprey” tilt-
rotor aircraft, KC-46A “Pegasus” aerial refuelling tankers, E-2D “Hawkeye” airborne early
warning and control aircraft , upgrades for BMD-capable Aegis combat systems to Japanese
destroyers”. (Emma Chanlett Avery, Ian E. Rinehart, 2016: 24). Japan is also aspiring to 1 NATO Plus five Country status is accorded by US to her important ally beyond NATO members. It provides privileges in defense contracts with US department of defense, defense loan guarantees, participation in NATO military training exercises etc.
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purchase further BMD systems from US namely ‘Aegis Ashore and the Terminal High
Altitude Area Defense (THAAD)’ system. Of late, the Japan and US started to focus on
stronger defence cooperation especially in the form of industry level cooperation and joint
research, development and production of security systems. Revised MDG of 2015 comprised
of part titled “‘Bilateral Enterprise,’ which describes the two allies’ intention to cooperate in
joint research, development, production, and test and evaluation of equipment and in mutual
provision of components of common equipment and services.”
3.3 Changes in Japan’s defence policy: Security assertion under Abe: Shinzo Abe took over reins of Japan for the second time at an era of existential threat to
Japan arising from North Korea. He strengthened alliance with US in all aspects. He also
tried to increase the international standing of Japan by reinvigorating Japanese relationship
with emerging nations like Australia, India and many other south East Asian nations.
However, he was clear that Japan cannot completely rely upon other nations support for her
security forever especially with the rise of new security orders in East Asia. Thus, he took
various measures within the pacifist constitutional framework of Japan to elevate Japans
defence policies and systems. In fact, coming of Restoration Party in 2012 elections opened
up a domestic debate on Japan’s pacifism which largely endorsed Abe’s ideas. (Crystal Pryor
2012)
3.3 (i) Ideas of Collective Self Defence and Pro-Active Pacifism Maybe the most emblematically noteworthy security change of the Abe Administration has
been Japan's potential cooperation in aggregate self-protection i.e. ‘Collective Self Defence’.
During his first term itself, Prime Minister Abe displayed an intention to bring symmetry in
alliance with US where Japan is protected by US but Japan is not needed to help U.S. defence
from any state and not state actor. “According to the existing interpretation of Japan’s
constitution, Japan possessed the right of collective self-defence, which is the right to defend
another country that has been attacked by an aggressor; however exercising that right would
have violated the constitution’s war-renouncing Article 9”(Takao Sebata,2016). In the
beginning of the year 2013, Shinzo Abe established an ‘expert advisory panel’ on the matter
of collective self-defence within constitutional framework.
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Based on these efforts in July 2014, Abe Cabinet brought about a new interpretation of the
provisions of constitution, “under which collective self-defence would be constitutional as
long as it met certain conditions such as
when an armed attack against a foreign country that is in a close relationship with
Japan occurs and as a result threatens Japan’s survival and poses a clear danger to
fundamentally overturn people’s right to life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness;
when there is no other appropriate means available to repel the attack and ensure
Japan’s survival and protect its people;
if Japan limits the use of force to the minimum extent necessary.” (Shunji Yanai et.al,
2014). The idea of ‘proactive pacifism’ came into prevalence. “‘Proactive Pacifism’ is understood as
expanded interaction under fewer restrictions with more nations’ armed forces in more far-
flung international conflicts” (Michael Hoffmann, 2015). These ideas led to the rise of
Japan’s standing among international community with Japan beginning to play bigger role on
international scene.
3.3 (ii) Revised National Defence Program Guidelines: Concept of Dynamic Defence
Force “National defence Program Guidelines (NDPG)’ which was first introduced in 1976 is a
comprehensive strategic document which covers every aspect of Japan’s military defence; it
reflected the Japan’s security and military strategy during the Cold War. Formulated against the backdrop of the détente of the 1970s, the 1976 NDPG were based on
awareness that (1) In general, a full-scale military clash between East and West would be unlikely to occur, and (2) In the vicinity of Japan, the balanced relationship between the U.S., China, and the Soviet
Union, and the existence of the Japan-U.S. security alliance would continue to play a
substantial role in preventing a serious invasion of Japan.
In addition, with regard to Japan’s defence capabilities, the NDPG stipulated that it should
give considerations so that it can (1) Be furnished with the various functions required for defence (2) Be in a balanced posture in organization and deployment, including logistic support,
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(3) take adequate surveillance posture in peacetime, (4) Effectively cope with situations up to limited and small-scale aggression, and (5) Be capable of shifting smoothly to a new setup when an important change occurs in the
situation and a new posture is necessary with regard to defence capability.
The ‘Basic defence Force Concept’ introduced by the 1976 NDPG attached importance to
deterrence, emphasizing measures to prevent an invasion of Japan.” (Defense of Japan white
paper, 2014)
They were revised in 1995 and 2004 formalizing strategy for post-cold war era. However, in
short time it was again updated in year 2010 essentially considering the threat coming from
North Korean as main concern. North Korea repeatedly conducted nuclear tests during this
time both in 2006 and 2009. North Korean aggression went on to another level in 2010, when
it sunk South Korean naval ship ‘Cheonan’ and did shelling on the ‘Yeonpyeong Island’.
These actions posed a grave threat to both South Korean and Japan. In this background, Japan
brought out its new NDPG (2010) which highlighted the weapons of Mass destruction,
ballistic missile threat, expanding Special Forces, and the recent armed provocations of North
Korea as immediate and grave threat to region’s peace.
NDPG 2010 provided comprehensive strategy to deal with potential threats to Japan.
“National Defense Program Guidelines 2010 proposed a three-level posture that includes
Japan’s enhancement of defence capabilities, cooperation within the Japan – U.S. alliance
and multi-layered security cooperation with the international community. It is highlighted the
importance of building a symmetrical alliance with the United States. However, the NDPG
2010 states that the United States is a nation contributing the most to peace and stability in
the world, and that Japan will enhance its alliance with the United States for a stable regional
order” (Young-June Park, 2010). For the first time under NDPG 2010 Japan highlighted need
to enhance defence partnership with Australia and South Korea.
Evolution of Japanese Defence Capability
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Source: Defence of Japan White paper 2014
On Japan’s defence capability building NDPG 2010 to deal with rising threats it stated that
Japan is going to develop a ‘Dynamic Defense Force’ replacing ‘Basic Defense Force
(BDF)’, a basic idea of the earlier defence plans. “The BDF concept refers to a ‘minimum
level of defence capabilities’ in deterring threats in the region. Constructing a ‘Dynamic
Defense Force’ will deviate from old ideas of defence by calling for increased promptness,
mobility, flexibility, sustainability, and multi-force capabilities to secure a more practical
deterrence and effective response. It is understood that the idea of ‘dynamic defence’ largely
originated from ‘dynamic deterrence’”. (Adam P Liff, 2010) NDPG 2010 brought basic
changes to Japanese military posture. It called for reduction of personnel on ground forces,
number of tanks and increase in destroyer units and sub marines of maritime Self Defence
Forces with greater flexibility in area of operation. Under NDPG 2010 Japan focused on
modernization of her defence capabilities ‘Aegis destroyers’, useful in missile defence are
increased from 4 to 6, planned to acquire one more ‘Helicopter-Carrier’. Japan also sought to
strengthen her Air Self Defense Force, by bringing in new fleet of F-4 fighter jets, C-1
transport aircrafts, and to deploy new air force squadron to Okinawa prefecture.
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“These changes reflected the idea of ‘dynamic defence,’ a shift of focus from rigid ground
forces to a more flexible defence based on air and naval units. ‘Dynamic defence’ further
calls for the reinforcement of missile defence and special forces, and also called for the
development of a Joint Chiefs of Staff office that will collect information, improve command,
control, and integration of each branch of the Self Defense Forces for combined operations”
(Sebastian Maslow, Ra Mason, Paul O'Shea, 2016). It is highly notable that NDPG 2010
mostly focuses on threat originating from North Korean Nuclearization and acquisition off
ballistic missile technology with marginal reference to rise of China.
In 2014 Japan under new Abe administration again issued a new National Defense Program
Guidelines (NDPG) 2014 which first time brought about National Security Strategy (NSS)
document. It contains several key phrases such as ‘proactive contribution to peace’, ’Dynamic
Joint Defense Force,’ and ‘Seamless response to various situations including so-called grey
zone situations’.(Yamaguchi Noburu,2014). NDPG 2014 has initiated the process of setting
up ‘National Security Council’. “NSC would play the role of a control tower, while
maintaining cooperation with its ally, partners and other countries concerned. It also talked
about development of a highly effective dynamic joint defence force with operational
cooperation among the air, naval, and ground force as core elements”( Defense of Japan
white paper, 2014).
The 2013 NDPG strengthened the pattern of changing the SDF towards greater versatility and
flexibility upholding to put more in amphibious capacities to safeguard its remote islands and
also in Ballistic Missile Defence to shield itself from missiles. “SDF would accelerate
reforms to become more joint, strengthen ISR (intelligence, surveillance, and
reconnaissance), and develop more capabilities in the domains of outer space and cyber
space. The SDF continues to bolster its force posture in Japan’s southwest island chain,
notably with an additional ASDF air wing on the main island of Okinawa and a new radar
base on Yonaguni Island” (J. Berkshire Miller,2014).
3.3 (iii) Grey Zone Contingencies and “Alliance Coordination Mechanism”
Preparation for “Grey Zone” Contingencies has evolved in Japanese security strategy with
this new NDPG. Japanese establishment was increasingly becoming concerned about North
Korea or China that they could try to assert their claims over disputed territories by using
paramilitary forces, like Coast Guard of China, in order to take islets under their control.
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Grey Zone Contingency is meant to address this kind of situation i.e. “the use of force
between a state of war and a state of peace” (Louise Wiuff Moe, 2018). Idea of Grey Zone
Contingency gave renewed focus on Japan US alliance. A new mechanism called “Alliance
Coordination Mechanism (ACA)” was established through the new bilateral defence
guidelines. ACA provided the much-needed organizational support for Japan and US in order
to facilitate forces coordination without escalating any minor crisis into a full-scale war.
3.3 (iv) Rise of importance for amphibious warfare in Japan
Amphibious warfare i.e. ‘projecting military force from the sea onto land’ has become very
crucial for Japanese Self Defence Forces (SDF) over a period of time. Before the formulation
of NDPG 2010, potential to launch amphibious defence was not considered very important
for Japanese defence. However territorial disputes over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islets, disaster
relief challenge after the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami brought to the fore the
importance of these capabilities. “Japan has therefore increased Ground Self Defence Forces
(GSDF) training exercises with the U.S. Marine Corps, as it begins to develop a Marine
Corps-like function within the GSDF. The GSDF is building a pan Amphibious Rapid
Deployment Brigade of 3,000 personnel to be the main response force for attacks on Japan’s
remote islands. The newest Maritime SDF flat-top destroyer ‘Izumo’ reportedly can carry up
to 14 helicopters, with 9 in operation at the same time. In the near future, the SDF is trying to
acquire amphibious assault vehicles, V-22 Osprey tiltrotor aircraft, and other air- and sea-lift
assets to boost mobile deployment capabilities” (Ayako Mie and Mizuho Aoki,2013). US
military assistance and training support are critical for Japan to develop these capabilities.
3.4 Increased Defence Spending under Abe: Rise in Defence Budget
One of the main constraints for Japan in order to strengthen her defence infrastructure is
finance. Japan’s military budget is limited to 1 percent of GDP there by crippling
administration. Japan under her pacifist constitution gave very less importance to defence
spending mostly depending upon US for her security. Japan in the cold war era was not much
focuses on military build-up where along with annual budget they started formulating
Defence Build-up Plans which provided clear cut task capabilities and targets for
procurement of defence equipment.
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In the first three defence build-up plans of 1958-60, 1962–66, and 1967–71 funding priorities
were merely to setup potential to counter limited aggression. However, economic difficulties
following the Oil Crisis of 1973 caused major problems in achieving the Fourth Defence
Build-up Plan (1972–76) and forced cut in funding. In 1976 the government suggested a
‘standard defence concept’ focusing on improvement of quality of the Japanese SDF more than the
quantity of SDF equipment. “Defence spending started to focus on achieving a basic level of
defence as set forth in the 1976 National Defence Program Outline. Thereafter, the
government gave up build-up plans which had open-ended nature and switched to reliance on
single fiscal year formulas that offered explicit, attainable goals” (Axe L Berkofsky,2012).
This tendency of low spending on defence continued in Japan even in post-cold war era.
However, Rise of China moreover Nuclearization of North Korea and rising threat to Japan
bought sea change in defence spending of Japan in 21’st century. (Rich, Motoko, 2017),
Japan’s Rise in military expenditure from 2008
Source: Tradingeconomics.com
Changes in Japan’s defence policy beginning with 2010 NDPG, where in defence fiancé
requirement went up drastically brought Japanese defence spending to the core. Beginning
with 2008 there was a steady improvement as represented in above figure. However, Shinzo
Abe in his second term removed a big obstruction of the tradition of spending only about 1
percent of GDP on security.
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“On March 3, 2017 Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced to the Diet, with little
accompanying fanfare, an official break with his predecessors’ policy of restricting defence
spending to 1 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This break is notable for a variety
of reasons and is a decisive step toward achieving the Liberal Democratic Party’s defence
revitalization goals. 1 percent policy (which is not law) was, next to the constitution itself,
one of the most tenacious obstacles restricting meaningful defence reform in Japan. Like the
glacial
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five-year Midterm defence Plan system Japan currently utilizes for defence spending, the
1percent restriction was an antiquated feature that needed to go”(John Wright,2017).. 1976 is
considered to be the beginning of one percent policy, which reflected Japanese intention to
reduce defence expenditures during Cold War. It greatly helped Japan’s peculiar condition in
that era. Japan during these times started to lean towards U.S. forward presence in Japan as a
main deterrent to the USSR thereby chose to abstain from expensive native armies and costly
nuclear weapons. Times have clearly changed by the turn of the 21st century. “Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's Cabinet on 22 December 2017 approved Japan's biggest $46
billion defence budget to bolster ballistic missile defence capability amid escalating tensions
on the Korean Peninsula. Under the plan, Japan's 2018 defence budget rose 1.3 percent from
the current year. It was the sixth annual increase under Abe, who ended a decade of military
budget cuts after taking office in 2012. The defence spending is part of Japan's $860 billion
national budget for 2018, also the biggest. The Cabinet also approved an additional $208
million defence spending through March for next-generation missile interceptors — an initial
cost of advanced US missile combat systems Aegis Ashore and other equipment.” (Mari
Yamaguchi, 2017)
Japan consistently began to increase her military budget consistently five times with the
current annual increase. It is very crucial as the country's SDF are seeking to strengthen
fighting capabilities in the middle of arising Chinese military presence in the South China
Sea and an aggressive North Korean ballistic missile development program along with
nuclear weapons. It is planned to develop two unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), first being
the’ surveillance-only device’, may become operational in 10 years. Another drone would
feature an unmanned fighter jet and will also be developed over the next ten years”. (Shirai
Ryoji,2014). A deep analysis of rising Japanese defence spending gives idea of its focus on
missile defence, amphibian war fare all endorsing the idea of “Dynamic Defence Force”.
(Sugio Takahashi,2012)
3.5 Recent Developments:
Under these turbulent times in North East Asia US witnessed the rise of new leadership with
new vigour and orientation. Coming of Donald Trump as president of US brought sea change
in the strategic environment of East Asia. As a candidate for President Election itself Trump
posed aggressive posture in foreign relations. He tended to give more important to the
interests of US than the interest of its allies. His policies after election largely conformed to
his poll time
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agenda. US long term security alliance with Japan underwent radical change due to his
policies. On the other hand, his aggressive posture towards North Korea and retaliatory
response from Kim Jong-Un further complicated the regional security environment.
North Korean aggressive posture, with the coming of new leadership continued in fact
aggravated by the end of Obama’s presidency which culminated in her fourth nuclear test in
September 2016. It shook the foundations of Japan and US alliance which believed it to be
the biggest ever by North Korea. More alarming was the announcement by North Korea that
it actually tested a nuclear war head. Japan's Prime
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Source: Forbes Statista
Minister Shinzo Abe declared that Japan cannot allow any such test and would ‘protest
adamantly’ to North Korea. "North Korea's nuclear development is becoming a grave threat
to Japan's safety and severely undermines the peace and safety of the region and the
international community," he said. (Shinzo Abe 2017) Japan US alliance responded by
unleashing a new wave of sanctions however without much impact over North Korean
belligerence.
Trump’s presidency began with much aggressive note where he heavily criticized earlier US
policies on North Korea and advocated much aggressive posture (Donald Trump, 2017). He
openly criticized Chinese failure to control North Korea. Moreover, he started public insult of
Kim Jong –UN as “little rocket man” and made crude threats on various occasions to attack
North Korea. He adopted the policy of “Maximum Leverage “on North Korea i.e. by
pressurizing to the maximum extent to give up nuclear weapons. However, it did not work
that way. (Beauchamp, Zack (2018)
North Korea responded with a series of aggressive moves beginning with ballistic missile test
in Feb 2017 towards Japan and even claimed that it was targeted towards US bases in Japan.
It was a first public announcement of North Korea directly challenging Japan’s alliance with
US. In fact, it came out at a time when Abe was in meeting with Trump. However, Japan and
US responded by installing missile defence systems in South Korea. However, these
measures did not deter North Korea which continued with missile tests. In May 2017, North
Korea unleashed another important weapon for her deterrence i.e. intermediate range missile,
‘Hwasong-12’, which according to North Korea was intended to carry a heavy nuclear
warhead and later test fired Pukguksong-2 declaring that it is ready for mass production and
operational deployment. (BBC News May 2017),
In July 2017 North Korea conducted its first ever ICBM (Hwasong-14) which was claimed to
have the capability of carrying nuclear war head. North Korean leader Kim Jong UN openly
stated his happiness over the success of the test that “United States would be displeased by
the North’s ‘package of gifts’ delivered on the U.S. on its Independence Day”. (Justin Mc
Curry,2017) These tests led to a war of words between Trump and Kim Jong - UN initiated
by Trump who said “further provocation against the U.S. will be met with ‘fire and fury like
the world has never seen’”.( Borger Julian, Mc Curry Justin,2017) Kim Jong-un responded by
threatening to lead North Korea’s missile test towards Guam. Trump further aggravated the
rhetoric on his ‘fire and fury’ warning, "Maybe that statement wasn't tough enough" and
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announced that if North Korea attacks Guam, ‘Things will happen to them like they never
thought possible’. Japan strongly criticized this display of arms by North Korea and strongly
supported US stance.
In September 2017, North Korea carried out its sixth and most powerful nuclear test till date,
claiming it was a hydrogen bomb designed for use on ICBMs. This was most powerful and
most successful nuclear test of North Korea till date. North Korea declared after thi s test that
it is now capable to striking anywhere in the US and all of Japan. Trump and Abe again
responded by tightening sanctions and stressing the importance of missile defence. However,
US tensions with North Korea started taking down turn in 2018 with proposed meeting
between Trump and Kim Jong-Un.
3.5 (i) Japan US alliance under Trump: issue of Defence Burden Sharing
Candidate Trump was very aggressive towards US alliance partners especially on the issue of
sharing defence burden and responsibilities. He was categorical that US alliance partners
should pay for the US forces stationed for their security. Japan was shocked when Candidate
Trump argued that Japan should pay 100 percent cost of stationing US forces in Japan. He
even suggested withdrawal of US forces from Japan if it is not adhered to. It appeared like
with coming of Trump Japan US alliance may weaken over this issue. However Defence
budget sharing did not escalate after Trump victory as a major issue partly due to rise in
Japanese defence budget in which large percentage is dedicated to Host Nation Support
(HNS) and mainly due to diplomatic initiatives of Shinzo Abe.
It is difficult to determine overall cost of US forces in Japan as various different definitions
and calculations are involved, but it is higher than what is paid by other US alliance partners,
including those in NATO. It is estimated that Japan pays around of 75 percent of cost against
30 to40 percent borne by ATO members. In financial year 2017, Japan spent more than 5
billion dollars from its Defence budget towards the cost of US forces in Japan. This was a
substantial contribution, making it cheaper to keep forces in Japan than in the US. The main
reason Japan has increased HNS over the years has to do wis her inability to contribute to
share US burden in other areas, such as contributing troops to US-led operations and other
more operation-oriented activities, due to its Peace Constitution. It has been argued that the
alliance has been based on exchange of cooperation between material and personnel in which
Japan making forward bases available and providing HNS, with the US providing troops. The
Trump administration appears content with the level of Japan’s burden-sharing within the
alliance.
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Secretary of Defence Jim Mattis said in a press conference with his Japanese counterpart in
Tokyo in February 2017 that “Japan has been a model of cost sharing, of burden sharing”,
and went on to argue that “we can point to our Japanese-American cost-sharing approach as
an example for other nations to follow”.
It was very important for Japan to strengthen her alliance with US in the wake of North
Korean aggressive missile and nuclear tests after the coming of Donald Trump. Shinzo Abe’s
proactive gestures greatly helped the alliance. Tokyo cannot afford to distance itself from the
United States in the midst of degrading security environment of North East Asia most
importantly in the wake of North Korean Nuclearization and ballistic-missile developments
and China’s increasingly assertive behaviour in the East and South China Seas. Upon
returning from a series of meetings with Trump in February 2017, Abe argued in a Diet
debate that “only” the United States would help defend Japan and retaliate “in the event that
North Korea were to launch a ballistic missile” and “there is no other choice than to cultivate
a close relationship to Mr. Trump and display it to the world.” Abe sounded quite candid
about the matter.
Shinzo Abe tried to cultivate personal relationship with Trump despite his aggressive posture
even before his formal assumption of presidency. His visited Trump Tower in New York to
see the president-elect less than two weeks after his election victory though there was danger
of offending the sitting president
Thereby Abe became the first foreign leader to see Trump after the election, believing that it
would pay off. Following the meeting, a buoyant Abe declared Trump “a leader who can be
trusted” and stated that the meeting “gave me confidence that the two of us can build a
relationship of trust”.
The first official summit meeting between Abe and Trump of February 2017 went well
exceeding expectations. The fact that Trump referred to the issue of North Korea’s abduction
of Japanese citizens in his address to the General Assembly of the United Nations in
September 2017 was also a testimony to the close personal bond between him and Abe as it
was pet issue of Shinzo Abe. It is remarkable to note that first act of aggression by North
Korea after coming of Trump happed parallel to his first official meeting with Abe.
In the wake of existential threat coming from North Korea, deterrence depends upon the
strength of Japan’s alliance with US. Japan was very clear under Abe administration that it
cannot allow Japan Us alliance to decline owing to small issues like defence burden sharing,
shifting of US bases etc. as it happened under DPJ rule. In fact, Shinzo Abe was not very
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comfortable on personal terms with Obama unlike most of the European allies. It is
interesting to know that Japanese leadership was always comfortable with republican
president unlike Europe’s liking for democrats. There is a notion that “Europe is blue and
Asia is Red” whereby Europe likes Democratic presidents and Asia Republican ones, seems
more or less true. Japans former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi’s relationship with the
Bush administration was often described as the best in Japan’s modern history. It seems that
Abe is trying to build the similar level of partnership with US.
Japan and United States have this way reacted to the growing instability in the region
surrounding the North Korea under the regime of Kim Jong-Un. “They have multiplied their
strength on readiness, counter-provocation plans, exercises, deployments and missile
defences. These are important and welcome steps. But at some point, the alliance needs to
understand that North Korea is capable of posing more asymmetrical threats than the alliance
can afford to counter with even 100 percent effectiveness. Instead of trying to counter each
specific threat, Tokyo and Washington need to balance deterrence by denial with deterrence
by punishment. Such an active defence strategy has should have some essential defence
components. The first would be an upgraded intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance
(ISR) network, capable of early detection of ballistic missiles, as well as low-altitude cruise
missiles and UAVs” (Patrick M Cronin). Further Japan upgraded its MDS (Missile Defence
Systems) by deploying more efficient ‘point defence systems (PAC-III)’ and ‘wider-range
defences that include not only Standard Missiles on Aegis-equipped destroyers but also land-
based Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) batteries’. Finally, Japan need to
develop an efficient offensive capability, with capability to launch pre-empting missile
attacks. Japan should not aim to actually launch pre-emptive attacks but should pose ‘the
threat of pre-emption’, which will actually force the North Korea to behave responsibly rather
than to threaten to turn Japan into a ‘sea of fire’.
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