Upload
maximilian-craley
View
217
Download
3
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Joseph Alcamo Center for Environmental Systems Research, KasselSlide 1
Security Diagrams
Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel Joseph Alcamo (Project leader)Dörthe Krömker Frank Eierdanz (Project manager)
Adelphi Research, BerlinAlexander Carius Dennis Tänzler
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchRichard KleinLilibeth Acosta-Michlik
A New Approach to Assessing Vulnerability to Drought:
Results from the Security Diagrams ProjectFunded by German Research Ministry
Open Meeting of the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Research Community Montreal, Canada 16-18 October, 2003
Joseph Alcamo Center for Environmental Systems Research, KasselSlide 2
Security DiagramsA New Approach to Assessing
Vulnerability to Drought: Results from the Security Diagrams Project
Introduction & first results Joseph Alcamo
Using fuzzy set theory to address the
uncertainty of susceptibility to
drought
Frank Eierdanz
The socio-economic dimension of
assessing vulnerability to extreme
climate events
Lilibeth Acosta-Michlik
Assessing susceptibility of society:
1. An environmental psychology
perspective
2. A political science perspective
Doerthe Kroemker
Doerthe Kroemker (for Dennis
Tanzler & Alex Carius)
Summing Up Joseph Alcamo
Joseph Alcamo Center for Environmental Systems Research, KasselSlide 3
Security DiagramsIntroduction to the Security Diagrams
Project
Overriding research question:
How can vulnerability of society to global change be quantified?
Joseph Alcamo Center for Environmental Systems Research, KasselSlide 4
Security Diagrams
Why quantify vulnerability?
To provide framework for comparing and integrating different disciplinary perspectives.
To include vulnerability in climate impact models, in integrated models, and other models.
Joseph Alcamo Center for Environmental Systems Research, KasselSlide 5
Security Diagrams
Susceptibility
En
vir
on
men
tal S
tress
Not a crisis
Crises event
High probabilityof crisesLow probability of crises
Framework for Quantifying Vulnerability:Security Diagram
Security diagrams deconstruct vulnerability into stress, susceptibility and crisis
Joseph Alcamo Center for Environmental Systems Research, KasselSlide 6
Security Diagrams
Conceptual Overview
EnvironmentalStress
Susceptibility Likelihood of Crisis
Joseph Alcamo Center for Environmental Systems Research, KasselSlide 7
Security Diagrams
1. Crisis – How can crisis events be identified?
2. Environmental Stress – What measures of environmental stress best reflect society’s vulnerability to drought?
3. Susceptibility – How can susceptibility of society to drought be quantified, and how similar/different are different disciplinary perspectives?
Specific Research Questions
Joseph Alcamo Center for Environmental Systems Research, KasselSlide 8
Security Diagrams
Approach of Project
Focus: Vulnerability of population to drought
Analysis
1. Estimate crisis events – Media analysis
2. Compute water stress – Use WaterGAP model and test indicators against crisis events
3. Compute susceptibility – Develop inference models from three disciplinary perspectives
Data collection
• Top down (statistical data, 1980 – 2000)
• Bottom up (limited surveys, late 1990s)
Three case study regions ...
Joseph Alcamo Center for Environmental Systems Research, KasselSlide 9
Security Diagrams
Case Study Regions
Southern Portugal
Volga region
Andhra Pradesh
Joseph Alcamo Center for Environmental Systems Research, KasselSlide 10
Security Diagrams
1. Crisis – How can crisis events be identified?
2. Environmental Stress – What measures of environmental stress best reflect society’s vulnerability to drought?
3. Susceptibility – How can susceptibility of society to drought be quantified, and how similar/different are different disciplinary perspectives?
Specific Research Questions
Joseph Alcamo Center for Environmental Systems Research, KasselSlide 11
Security Diagrams
1. Crisis – How can crisis events be identified?
2. Environmental Stress – What measures of environmental stress best reflect society’s vulnerability to drought?
3. Susceptibility – How can susceptibility of society to drought be quantified, and how similar/different are different disciplinary perspectives?
Specific Research Questions
Crisis: unstable or crucial time or state of affairs brought about by environmental stress; decisive undesirable change is impending/occurring, requires emergency measures.
Joseph Alcamo Center for Environmental Systems Research, KasselSlide 13
Security Diagrams
Identifying Drought Crisis Events
Media analysis -- “Factiva” media data base
(8000 media sources, local/regional/national)
1. Establish classes of “attributes” of crisis
2. Identify reliable local media
3. Tabulate recurrent (> 2 per month) reports of attributes
Joseph Alcamo Center for Environmental Systems Research, KasselSlide 14
Security Diagrams
Results of Media AnalysisExample – Southern Portugal, 1983
Attributes of crisis
Agriculture
(0.25)
Energy & Industry
(0.25)
Political
(0.25)
Social
(0.25)
Sum
1.0
Irrigation strongly reduced
Reservoirs empty towards end of year
Hydroelectric production severely curtailed.
Announce-ment of „emergency‘“ for Alentejo
Mandatory electricity- saving measures
Joseph Alcamo Center for Environmental Systems Research, KasselSlide 15
Security Diagrams
Year 19 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95
India 0,75 0,25 1,0 0,5
Portugal 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,0
Russia 0,5 0,5 0,25 0,75
First Estimate – Drought Crisis Events
Volga Region
A. Pradesh
S. Portugal
13/48
Joseph Alcamo Center for Environmental Systems Research, KasselSlide 16
Security Diagrams
1. Crisis – How can crisis events be identified?
2. Environmental Stress – What measures of environmental stress best reflect society’s vulnerability to drought?
3. Susceptibility – How can susceptibility of society to drought be quantified, and how similar/different are different disciplinary perspectives?
Specific Research Questions
Joseph Alcamo Center for Environmental Systems Research, KasselSlide 17
Security Diagrams
1. Crisis – How can crisis events be identified?
2. Environmental Stress – What measures of environmental stress best reflect society’s vulnerability to drought?
3. Susceptibility – How can susceptibility of society to drought be quantified, and how similar/different are different disciplinary perspectives?
Specific Research Questions
Joseph Alcamo Center for Environmental Systems Research, KasselSlide 18
Security DiagramsWater Stress:
Withdrawal to Availability ratio 1995
Environmental stress: the intensity of environmental change thatis (i) an undesirable departure, (ii) short duration.
Joseph Alcamo Center for Environmental Systems Research, KasselSlide 19
Security DiagramsWater Stress:
Withdrawal to Availability ratio 1995
Is there a problem?
Are there thresholds?
If yes, where?
Source: WaterGAP model, U.N. World Water Assessment Report
Joseph Alcamo Center for Environmental Systems Research, KasselSlide 20
Security Diagrams
WaterGAP ...
Global water use and availability model,
Computes surface runoff, groundwater recharge
Spatial resolution 0.5°, monthly temporal resolution.
Based on the best global data sets currently available
Uses “local” climate and socio-economic data to compute
water availability and use in case study regions
Computing water stress – the WaterGAP model
Joseph Alcamo Center for Environmental Systems Research, KasselSlide 21
Security Diagrams
Testing the WaterGAP Model
River Discharge of Volga at Volgograd (km3/a)
Computed
Observed
Joseph Alcamo Center for Environmental Systems Research, KasselSlide 22
Security DiagramsWater Stress Indicators
-- Test against occurrence of crisis events -- Statistical significance, t test (0.05)
Water withdrawal to availability ratio Deviation of groundwater recharge from long time average Deviation of water availability from long time average Runoff deficit index Deviation of evapotranspiration from long time average MaxIndex Maximum function [withdrawal to availability ratio, deviation of water availability from long term average, and percentage of area with high water stress]
Water withdrawal to internal availability ratio Annual groundwater recharge in mm
Groundwater discharge per capita Water availability per capita Internal renewable water availability per capita Percentage of area under stress (defined as withdrawal to availability ratio of 0.4 or more) Percentage of population under stress Deviation of precipitation from long time average
Statistically significant indicators Not statistically significant indicators
Joseph Alcamo Center for Environmental Systems Research, KasselSlide 23
Security Diagrams
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
0.0 - 0.2 >0.2 - 0.4 >0.4 - 0.6 >0.6 - 0.8 >0.8 - 1.0
Water Stress (Categories)
Rel
ativ
e fr
eque
ncy
of c
rise
s[n
umbe
r of
cri
ses
/ num
ber
of c
ases
per
cat
egor
y]
0 crises /4 cases
3 crises /24 cases
7 crises /16 cases
1 crises /2 cases
2 crises /2 cases
Testing Water StressWater stress (“MaxIndex”) vs.
crisis data from three case study regions
Joseph Alcamo Center for Environmental Systems Research, KasselSlide 24
Security Diagrams
First conclusions about crisis and stress
Estimating crisis events –
Reproducible?
Definition of crisis?
Testing water stress –
Data period and sample too small?
Joseph Alcamo Center for Environmental Systems Research, KasselSlide 25
Security Diagrams
First conclusions about crisis and stress
Are vulnerability estimates testable?
Possible to identify independent variable for testing regional vulnerability indicators – “crisis event”
Is it possible to verify environmental stress estimates and thresholds?
• Using crisis data, can determine statistical significance/insignificance of water stress indicators
• Using crisis data, identify water stress threshold.
Joseph Alcamo Center for Environmental Systems Research, KasselSlide 26
Security Diagrams
1. Crisis – How can crisis events be identified?
2. Environmental Stress – What measures of environmental stress best reflect society’s vulnerability to drought?
3. Susceptibility – How can susceptibility of society to drought be quantified, and how similar/different are different disciplinary perspectives?
Specific Research Questions
Joseph Alcamo Center for Environmental Systems Research, KasselSlide 27
Security Diagrams
1. Crisis – How can crisis events be identified?
2. Environmental Stress – What measures of environmental stress best reflect society’s vulnerability to drought?
3. Susceptibility – How can susceptibility of society to drought be quantified, and how similar/different are different disciplinary perspectives?
Specific Research Questions
Susceptibility: the capability of an individual, community or state to resist and/or recover from crisis brought about by environmental stress.
Joseph Alcamo Center for Environmental Systems Research, KasselSlide 29
Security Diagrams
Quantifying Susceptibility
Objective: Quantify the estimation of susceptibility and compare differences between 3 disciplinary perspectives:
• Environmental psychology
• Economics
• Political Science
Joseph Alcamo Center for Environmental Systems Research, KasselSlide 30
Security Diagrams
1. Develop inference models: Adapt theory, select variables, specify relationships between variables, select indicators for variables.
2. Quantify the models based on fuzzy set theory
3. Collect data for indicators: (top-down and bottom-up from case study regions: Southern Portugal, Volga region, Andhra Pradesh)
4. Input data to model and compute susceptibility
Procedure to Assess Susceptibility
Joseph Alcamo Center for Environmental Systems Research, KasselSlide 31
Security DiagramsA New Approach to Assessing
Vulnerability to Drought: Results from the Security Diagrams Project
Introduction & first results Joseph Alcamo
Using fuzzy set theory to address the
uncertainty of susceptibility to
Drought
Frank Eierdanz
The socio-economic dimension of
assessing vulnerability to extreme
climate events
Lilibeth Acosta-Michlik
Assessing susceptibility of society:
1. An environmental psychology perspective
2. A political science perspective
Doerthe Kroemker
Doerthe Kroemker (for Dennis Tanzler)
Summary of the project Joseph Alcamo