Jordan Case Study: Gulf of Aqaba THE FOURTH BOARD MEETING Sep 13-15, 2004 Hammamet, Tunis By Muhammad R. Shatanawi University of Jordan

Jordan Case Study:Jordan Case Study:Gulf of AqabaGulf of Aqaba

THE FOURTH BOARD MEETING THE FOURTH BOARD MEETING

Sep 13-15, 2004Sep 13-15, 2004

Hammamet, TunisHammamet, Tunis

ByBy

Muhammad R. ShatanawiMuhammad R. Shatanawi

University of JordanUniversity of Jordan

WP 08: Regional Case Study: WP 08: Regional Case Study: Jordan/Jordan/Gulf of AqabaGulf of Aqaba

WORK PROGRESSWORK PROGRESS

Contribution to WP04: Contribution to WP04: Data Compilation and AnalysisData Compilation and Analysis

Using the SUMER database, the data Using the SUMER database, the data related to Jordan case study has related to Jordan case study has been completed and sent to SUMERbeen completed and sent to SUMER

Jordan Data Corresponding to Jordan Data Corresponding to SUMER Database: SUMER Database:

CASE_COUNTRY

CName C_Code

Jordan JO

REGION

RName R_Code C_Code

Aqaba Governorate JOR1 JO

MUNICIPALITY

MName M_Code R_Code

AQABA DISTRICT JOM1 JOR1

QUAIRAH DISTRICT JOM2 JOR1

REG_POP

Year Value Pop_Char R_Code

2001 14582 U JOR1

2001 89578 R JOR1

MUN_POP

Year Value Pop_Char M_Code

2001 16665 NA JOM2

2001 87495 NA JOM1

2002 17140 NA JOM2

2002 89975 NA JOM1


NAT_IND

Ind_Code Value C_Code

Population Growth Rate (%/year) 2.8 JO

Population Density (Number of people/Km2) 58 JO

Crude Death Rate (%/year) 5 JO

Crude Birth Rate (%/year) 28 JO

Life Expectancy at Birth (years) 69 JO

Growth of G.D.P. (%) 4.5 JO

Activity Rate (%) 38.2 JO


REG_IND

Ind_Code Value R_Code

Population Growth Rate (%/year) 2.8 JOR1

Population Density (Number of people/Km2) 15.8 JOR1

Crude Death Rate (%/year) 0.35 JOR1

Crude Birth Rate(%/year) 2.84 JOR1

Activity Rate (%) 23.8 JOR1

Percentage of Tertiary employment (%) 80.9 JOR1

Water Price for the Domestic Use (EURO/M3) 0.71 JOR1

Water Price for the Agricultural Use (EURO/M3) 0.25 JOR1

Water Price for the industry(EURO/M3) 1.7 JOR1

Water Consumption per Capita (Liters/day) 392.2 JOR1

Domestic Water Consumption per Capita (Liters/day) 83 JOR1

Commercial Water Consumption per Capita (Liters/day) 12 JOR1

Industrial Water Consumption per Capita (Liters/day) 212.42 JOR1

Total Water Consumption (M3) 14950095 JOR1


MUN_IND

Ind_Code Value M_Code

Population Growth Rate (%/year) 2.84 JOM1

Population Growth Rate (%/year) 2.85 JOM2

Population Density (Number of people/Km2) 6.51 JOM2

Population Density (Number of people/Km2) 20 JOM1


NAT_IND_DTL

Ind_Code Class Value C_Code

Agricultural production By the main Types of Product (MILLION EURO)

Cereals 23.67 JO


Fruits 159.6 JO


Vegetables 135.48 JO


REG_IND_DTL

Ind_Code Class Value R_Code


Cereals 1.69 JOR1


Fruits 2.1 JOR1


Vegetables 8.21 JOR1

Contributions to WP10 : Contributions to WP10 : Comparative Policy AnalysisComparative Policy Analysis

Contribution:Contribution:

Complete the data related to Jordan Case Complete the data related to Jordan Case study in the draft comparative database study in the draft comparative database that was prepared by UATLA that was prepared by UATLA

Jordan Data in the Comparative DatabaseJordan Data in the Comparative Database

Jordan Aqaba

Jordan - Baseline

ASEZ - Baseline

Population

Resident population increase % 2.3 2.8

Resident population annual increase

139,000 2795

Birth control policy No Policy No Policy

Natural growth rate % 2.8 2.8

Urban Population Growth % 2.8 2.8

Rural Population Growth % 2.3 2.3


Jordan Aqaba

Jordan - Baseline

ASEZ - Baseline

Water policies

Agricultural water subvention

Surface water subsidized, GW

(private no subsidized)

No

Taxes (tourism and industry)

actual cost of water actual cost of water

Sustainable development and mobilization strategy for surface water

construction of dams N/A

National master land use planning

Exist

ASEZ has developed a master plan in which all land uses are determined


Jordan Aqaba

Jordan – Baseline

ASEZ - Baseline

Water resources

Surface water supply %

370MCM None

Ground water supply %

510MCM 17MCM

Import N/A N/A

Losses-network %

>50% 32%

Small Dams MCM 210 None

Recycling of Waste water MCM

75 MCM 90,000

Integrated management

Not Exist Not Exist

Balance supply-demand MCM

175 0


Jordan Aqaba

Jordan - Baseline ASEZ - Baseline

Water quality

Pollution Min Min

Salinity ppm 300-1000 250-450

Surface water quality ppm

700 N/A

Groundwater pollution

Limited Limited

Basin-out water supply (groundwater) mm/y

N/A 20MCM

Waste water ppm 1000-1200 700-1000

Wastewater industrial pollution

Limited Limited


Jordan Aqaba

Jordan - Baseline

ASEZ - Baseline

Water uses

Domestic water use MCM 270 3.96

Industrial water use (groundwater) MCM

25 3.95

Industrial water use (surface water) MCM

20 None

Irrigation water use MCM 610 2.25 MCM

Water exploitation awareness

Exist Exist


Jordan Aqaba

Jordan - BaselineASEZ -

Baseline

Water Supply Investments

Domestic Water Supply Investments

N/A N/A

Irrigation m/o Investments

N/A N/A

Land use

Residential growth

15% 20%

Aquaculture development

None None

Irrigated Area km²

700 10


Jordan Aqaba

Jordan - Baseline

ASEZ - Baseline

Land use Change

Land use Change %

N/A N/A

Tourism areas

N/AN/A

Agricultural Areas

2-10 Km2N/A

Industrial Areas

N/AN/A


Jordan Aqaba

Jordan - Baseline

ASEZ - Baseline

Tourism

National policy for tourism development

EXIST EXIST

Water overexploitation (in spite of the heavy taxes) %

150 0

Shortage of Institutional capabilities

No No


Jordan Aqaba

Jordan - Baseline ASEZ - Baseline

Agriculture

Irrigation techniques %

50 90

Loss rate in irrigation system %

40 25


Jordan Aqaba

Jordan - Baseline

ASEZ - Baseline

Climate Change

Salt water intrusion

No No

Frequent torrential rain

No None

More droughts Yes

Less precipitation

mm/y

300 35

Precipitation rate mm

95 35

Coastal erosion mm/y

No No

TELEMAC TELEMAC Modeling SystemModeling System

TELEMAC Modeling TELEMAC Modeling Work AchievedWork Achieved

1.1. A triangular mesh with a number of criteria was A triangular mesh with a number of criteria was generatedgenerated

2.2. The effect of the forcing parameters (Tide & The effect of the forcing parameters (Tide & Wind) on the current fields in the Gulf of Aqaba Wind) on the current fields in the Gulf of Aqaba was studied.was studied.

3.3. The influence of these both factors on the local The influence of these both factors on the local hydrodynamic (scalar velocity and water depth) hydrodynamic (scalar velocity and water depth) was underlined.was underlined.

• Criteria: Criteria: 3000 3000 mm, 1000 m, 1000 m, , 200 200 m, and m, and 20 m.20 m.

• Number of Number of Elements: Elements: 2453224532

I- Mesh GenerationI- Mesh Generation :: MATISSEMATISSE

Boundary Boundary ConditionsConditions1.1. Upstream Boundary: Upstream Boundary:

Begins at boundary point Begins at boundary point number 1 and coordinates ( number 1 and coordinates ( X=642127, Y=3110380), X=642127, Y=3110380), and ends at boundary point and ends at boundary point number 7 and coordinates number 7 and coordinates (X= 659332.0 Y= 3113890). (X= 659332.0 Y= 3113890).

Depth condition (open Depth condition (open boundary with boundary with prescribed depth)prescribed depth)

Velocity condition (open Velocity condition (open boundary with free boundary with free velocity)velocity)

2.2. Coastline: Begins at Coastline: Begins at boundary point number 7 boundary point number 7 (Global Number 65) and (Global Number 65) and coordinates (X= 659332.0, coordinates (X= 659332.0, Y= 3113890.), and ends at Y= 3113890.), and ends at boundary point number 1 boundary point number 1 (Global Number 24) and (Global Number 24) and coordinates (X= 642127.0, coordinates (X= 642127.0, Y= 3110380).Y= 3110380).

Depth condition (closed Depth condition (closed boundary ”wall”)boundary ”wall”)

Upstream Boundary

Coastline

Scenario I: TIDEScenario I: TIDE Three different Simulations were performed for Three different Simulations were performed for

the periods of : March, June and August. the periods of : March, June and August. The simulation time was three days The simulation time was three days

corresponding to six tides for each month. corresponding to six tides for each month.

Scenario II: TIDE & WINDScenario II: TIDE & WIND The same simulations performed in the first The same simulations performed in the first

scenario were repeated taking into account the scenario were repeated taking into account the effect of wind.effect of wind.

The simulations were performed for a period of The simulations were performed for a period of three days. three days.

Description of ScenariosDescription of Scenarios

Hydrodynamic Hydrodynamic Results: RUBENSResults: RUBENS

Scenario Scenario I: TideI: Tide

1)1) MarchMarch

Flood Currents Produced

From Rising Tides


1)1) MarchMarch

Flood Currents Produced From High

Tides


1)1) MarchMarch

Ebb Currents Produced

From Falling Tides

Scenario II: Scenario II: Tide & WindTide & Wind

1)1) MarchMarch

Wind has more effect on the flow direction than the tide

effect


1)1) MarchMarch


effect


1)1) MarchMarch


effect

Eddy currents produced at

different locations in the Gulf of

Aqaba during the month of

March.

TELEMAC Modeling TELEMAC Modeling Current Step: Current Step:

Calibration/ValidationCalibration/Validationthe data used in the calibration step were obtained from the the data used in the calibration step were obtained from the

Marine Science Station, these data include:Marine Science Station, these data include:

1)1) Measured currents (intensity & direction) at one location during the months Measured currents (intensity & direction) at one location during the months of March (from 06/03 to 31/03), June (from 01/06 to 22/06) and August (from of March (from 06/03 to 31/03), June (from 01/06 to 22/06) and August (from 01/08 to 22/08) of the year 2000. The projected coordinate of that location 01/08 to 22/08) of the year 2000. The projected coordinate of that location in UTM is: X=690861 Y= 3260258.in UTM is: X=690861 Y= 3260258.

2)2) Measured currents (intensity & direction) at two locations during the month Measured currents (intensity & direction) at two locations during the month of March 1999. The projected coordinates of those locations are: X=684850 of March 1999. The projected coordinates of those locations are: X=684850 Y= 3254935 and X= 651992 Y= 3135229. For the first location, the Y= 3254935 and X= 651992 Y= 3135229. For the first location, the available measured currents are only for 22 hrs period during the fifth day available measured currents are only for 22 hrs period during the fifth day of March. For the second location, it is for 30 hrs period during the second of March. For the second location, it is for 30 hrs period during the second and third day of March.and third day of March.

3)3) The water depth at which the measured currents were taken was The water depth at which the measured currents were taken was 35m. 35m.

4)4) Description of the bottom of the Gulf of Aqaba. It was known from the MSS Description of the bottom of the Gulf of Aqaba. It was known from the MSS that the bottom of the Aqaba Gulf consists of more than 90% Silicate and that the bottom of the Aqaba Gulf consists of more than 90% Silicate and the remaining part is Carbonate.the remaining part is Carbonate.

Location of the points at which measured currents for the year 2000 and 1999 are available.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000

Time (sec)

Dir

ec

tio

n (

de

g)

simulated

measured

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000

Time (sec)

Ve

loc

ity

(m

/s)

simulated

measured

TELEMAC Modeling TELEMAC Modeling Current Step: Current Step:

Calibration/ValidationCalibration/ValidationQuestions:Questions:1)1) By comparing the simulated currents By comparing the simulated currents

with the measured ones, it is appeared with the measured ones, it is appeared that there is a difference of two order of that there is a difference of two order of magnitude between the two comparable magnitude between the two comparable currents, Why ?! currents, Why ?!

2)2) Which parameter are we going to Which parameter are we going to calibrate?calibrate?

TELEMAC Modeling TELEMAC Modeling Next StepNext Step

To validate the modelTo validate the model

To compute the pollutant evolution in the To compute the pollutant evolution in the Gulf. The pollutant to be studied is the Gulf. The pollutant to be studied is the dissolved nitrogen in the form of Nitrate dissolved nitrogen in the form of Nitrate (NO(NO33ˉ). ˉ).

The water quality data is not available till The water quality data is not available till nownow

Land Use Change Land Use Change ModelModelLUCLUC

LUC Model: Work LUC Model: Work AchievedAchieved

• A geographical domain have been A geographical domain have been defined (ASEZ border)defined (ASEZ border)

• Two Land use maps based on CORINE Two Land use maps based on CORINE classification have been prepared classification have been prepared using SPOT images (10m-coloured).using SPOT images (10m-coloured).

• The land use map are for two The land use map are for two periods : 1990 and 2003.periods : 1990 and 2003.

Aqaba Special Economic Zone Border Aqaba Special Economic Zone Border (ASEZA)(ASEZA)

Land Use Map For Land Use Map For The Year 1990The Year 1990

Land Use Map For Land Use Map For The Year 2003The Year 2003

WATERWARE Modeling WATERWARE Modeling SystemSystem

WATERWARE Modeling System WATERWARE Modeling System Work AchievedWork Achieved

1.1. Define the application domain within which the Define the application domain within which the system is to be applied. The application domain system is to be applied. The application domain will be ASEZA area. will be ASEZA area.

2.2. Identify the network objects within the ASEZA Identify the network objects within the ASEZA border. A network objects are represented by:border. A network objects are represented by:

1.1. Type (Start, Demand, Confluence, Diversion or Supply)Type (Start, Demand, Confluence, Diversion or Supply)2.2. Location (X,Y,Z)Location (X,Y,Z)

3.3. Time series data for:Time series data for:1.1. The daily pumping rate from wells that supply Aqaba The daily pumping rate from wells that supply Aqaba

from 1998-2003from 1998-20032.2. Daily water consumption for all sectors at each demand Daily water consumption for all sectors at each demand

node from 1998-2003node from 1998-20033.3. Daily water consumption for sectors at each demand Daily water consumption for sectors at each demand

node from 1998-2003node from 1998-2003

Q: Where is the List of Q: Where is the List of Scenario Button??Scenario Button??

WATERWARE Modeling SystemWATERWARE Modeling SystemNext StepNext Step

Check for suitability and adequacy Check for suitability and adequacy of the collected data.of the collected data.

Try to run the WRM model for our Try to run the WRM model for our case study.case study.

Try to run the LUC model for our Try to run the LUC model for our case study.case study.

Current Problems we are facingCurrent Problems we are facing How to deal with the sectorial demand data How to deal with the sectorial demand data

(Input format) ? (Input format) ?

In the manual, it is indicated that only scenarios In the manual, it is indicated that only scenarios owned by a user can be viewed, but what about owned by a user can be viewed, but what about the TIME SERIES. We observe that we can select the TIME SERIES. We observe that we can select a TS related to other case studies to be used in a TS related to other case studies to be used in our scenario and or delete it?our scenario and or delete it?

When do you expect the model to be ready for When do you expect the model to be ready for RUN? RUN?

What is the link between the WRM output and What is the link between the WRM output and LUC model output?LUC model output?

Dissemination PlanDissemination Plan

Dissemination Plan Dissemination Plan Participate in “Participate in “Wadi Hydrology Steering Wadi Hydrology Steering

Committee Meeting Committee Meeting “ that was held in “ that was held in Damascus, Syria in July 20,2004Damascus, Syria in July 20,2004

Participate in the “Participate in the “Second INCO-MED Water Second INCO-MED Water Conference Conference ” that was held in Amman, June-” that was held in Amman, June-14,2004. 14,2004.

Participate in the “Participate in the “International Water International Water Demand Management ConferenceDemand Management Conference” that was ” that was held in the Dead Sea, Jordan in May 30, held in the Dead Sea, Jordan in May 30, 2004 2004

END of SLIDE SHOWEND of SLIDE SHOW

THANK YOUTHANK YOU

Documents

Jordan Case Study: Gulf of Aqaba THE FOURTH BOARD MEETING Sep 13-15, 2004 Hammamet, Tunis By Muhammad R. Shatanawi University of Jordan