John Sunderland-Wright

Problem Solving and Decision-making

© JS ACHIEVE 2018

Confidence

Focus Composure

Resilience

© JS ACHIEVE 2018

• Understand the functions of the mind• Introducing the depth mind principle• Categorising problems• How to stop wrestling pigs• How to problem clean• The art of effective decision making• Assessing risk and consequences• Understanding the problem by asking the right

questions and reframing• Creativity and innovation in problem solving• Using divergent thinking• Developing your skills in generating ideas• Affinity diagrams to find out the root cause• Using a range of PS tools• Managing the head and heart in decision making• Exploring decision making• Assessing and managing risk

LEARNING

WHY ARE PROBLEM-SOLVING and DECISION MAKING SKILLS CRITICAL?

© JS ACHIEVE 2018

Your brain and your mind! What’s the difference?

© JS ACHIEVE 2018

I cnduo’t bvleiee taht I culod aultaclyuesdtannrd waht I was rdnaieg. Unisg the

icndeblire pweor of the hmuan mnid. Aocdcrnig to rseecrah at Cmabrigde Uinervtisy, it dseno’t mttaer in waht oderr the lterets in a wrod are, the olny irpoamtnt tihng is taht the

frsit and lsat ltteer be in the rhgit pclae.

Functions of the mind

© JS ACHIEVE 2018

Analysing

Synthesizing

Valuing

5 Problems for you

Depth mind –John Adair

How the sub-conscious and unconscious mind can help. Let’s sleep on it!

“Creativity involves the depth of a mind, and many, many depths of unconsciousness” Prof Oliver Sacks –Neurologist. Author of Everything in its place

© JS ACHIEVE 2018

Depth mind – Thomas Edison, steel balls and The Hypnagogic State

© JS ACHIEVE 2018

Problem Analysis

Symptoms Analysis

Diagnosis

Priorities

Objectives

Investigation

Awareness

START

Review

Control

Implementation

DecisionConsequences

Resources

Evaluation

AlternativesDecision Making

Problem-solvingDecision Making

© JS ACHIEVE 2018

Problem Solving or Pig Wrestling?

© JS ACHIEVE 2018

Pig Wrestling?

© JS ACHIEVE 2018

Problems with it

• You’re not getting the results

you want

• Whatever you’ve tried hasn’t

worked

• You feel like you’ve tried

everything

• It seems to be resistant to

change

• It’s emotionally draining

Whenever someone finds themselves pig wrestling, the only

thing we know for sure is that they’re tackling the wrong

problem!

Reference: Pig Wrestling, Mark

Bawden and Peter Lindsay. Penguin

books

Structuring a problem

We can evaluate a problem’s structure in terms of its:

Initial conditions (where we are);Goal conditions (where we want to be);

Operators (the means or methods of getting from initial to goal conditions).

A well structured problem (WSP) is clear in all three respects.

An ill structured problem (ISP) is unclear in any or all of these respects.

© JS ACHIEVE 2018

Problems cannot be solved by thinking

within the framework in which the

problems were created.

Albert Einstein

© JS ACHIEVE 2018

Viewing

“Get out of the pig pen and put a foot on the fence”

Questions

• How specifically is this a problem for me?

• Have I seen the whites of the pig’s eyes?

• Should I tackle this right now and what would happen if I did nothing?

© JS ACHIEVE 2018

© JS ACHIEVE 2018

© JS ACHIEVE 2018

© JS ACHIEVE 2018

Framing and cleaning

Frames makes it easier for our mind to make sense of the world. It sets the limits and tones of the content within it.

Confirmation Bias

We seek out information that confirms our existing opinions and ignore contrary information that refutes them

© JS ACHIEVE 2018

Avoid Assumptions and labels

• The descriptions and narratives we apply to our problems are often linked to our failure to make progress

• When you’re pig wrestling, the labels, stories, and assumptions you apply to the situation is the mud that the pig is stuck in.

SOLUTION

Take time to accurately describe the problem in behavioural and factual terms.

© JS ACHIEVE 2018

Solutioneering

Stop thinking about how you are going to solve this problem, and START thinking about how you’ll know it is solved!

Look into your crystal ball.

What would you see once this problem was solved?

(Synthesizing).

© JS ACHIEVE 2018

Solutioneering

• When is the problem not a problem? (When and where is the problem not present)?

• What has to be present for the problem to occur?

• (Who and what benefits from the problem remaining)?

• What’s the difference between when the problem happens and when it doesn’t?

© JS ACHIEVE 2018

© JS ACHIEVE 2018

Divergent Thinking

Many different ways of looking at a situation task, problem

© JS ACHIEVE 2018

98%

32%

10%

2%0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

3-5 yrs 8-10 yrs 13-15 yrs 25+

% Genius at Divergent Thinking

% Genius

© JS ACHIEVE 2018

Divergent Thinking

Many different ways of looking at a situation task, problem

The Paper Clip Challenge

© JS ACHIEVE 2018

DefineTheProblem

IdentifyPossibleCauses

Identify RootCause(s)

IdentifySolution(s)

Collect Data

• Step back

• Re-frame

• Think cleanly (are my values getting in the way?).

• What have I tried so far?

• How would I know this was no longer a problem?

• Brainstorming

• TIM K WOOD

• CATWOE

• Brainstorming

• Fishbone Diagram

• 5 Whys

• Who and what benefits from the problem remaining?

• Brainstorming

• Fishbone Diagram

• 5 Whys

•

• Brainstorming

• Divergent thinking

•Crystal ball

• Spot the difference. What’s the difference when the problem happens and when it doesn’t?

© JS ACHIEVE 2018

Problem Analysis Process

TIM K WOOD

• Over production…ahead of demand

• Waiting…for information, materials, people, equipment, etc., causing inefficient use of time

• Transportation…conveyance of materials, product, paperwork, etc., more than is necessary

• Over-processing...often associated with “overkill”, includes any form of inspection

• Inventories…having more than absolute minimum

• Motion…of people more than necessary to complete task

• Defects or Rework…anything which prevents acceptance of a product and leads to rework

• Knowledge…disconnects or lack of knowledge, ideas and creativity

© JS ACHIEVE 2018

Collect Data: CATWOE

CustomersWho are they, and how does the issue affect them?

ActorsWho is involved in the situation? Who will be involved in implementing solutions? And what will impact their success?

Transformation ProcessWhat processes or systems are affected by the issue?

World ViewWhat is the big picture? And what are the wider impacts of the issue?

OwnerWho owns the process or situation you are investigating? And what role will they play in the solution?

Environmental ConstraintsWhat are the constraints and limitations that will impact the solution and its success?

© JS ACHIEVE 2018

Identify Causes: Ishikawa’s ‘Fishbone’ Diagram

Causes

Effect

© JS ACHIEVE 2018

State the Effect (Problem)

Effect

© JS ACHIEVE 2018

Example Factors/’Families’ of Causes

• Machine/Equipment/Materials

• Process/Methods

• Environment

• Measurements

• People

© JS ACHIEVE 2018

Identify Causes: Ishikawa’s ‘Fishbone’ Diagram

Family 1 Family 2 Family 3

Family 6 Family 5 Family 4

Causes

Effect

© JS ACHIEVE 2018

Identify Influencing Sub-Causes

Family 1 Family 2 Family 3

Family 6 Family 5 Family 4

Causes

Effect

© JS ACHIEVE 2018

Example: Pizza Delivery Company

© JS ACHIEVE 2018

Identify Root Causes: The 5 Why’s

• Why?

• Why?

• Why?

• Why?

• Why?

© JS ACHIEVE 2018

Pizza Delivery Example: Root Causes

© JS ACHIEVE 2018

Pizza Delivery Example: Major Root Causes

Now solutions can start to be developed and decided on!© JS ACHIEVE 2018

DefineTheProblem

IdentifyPossibleCauses

Identify RootCause(s)

IdentifySolution(s)

Collect Data

• Step back

• Re-frame

• Think cleanly (are my values getting in the way?).

• What have I tried so far?

• How would I know this was no longer a problem?

• Brainstorming

• TIM K WOOD

• CATWOE

• Brainstorming

• Fishbone Diagram

• 5 Whys

• Who and what benefits from the problem remaining?

• Brainstorming

• Fishbone Diagram

• 5 Whys

•

• Brainstorming

• Divergent thinking

•Crystal ball

• Spot the difference. What’s the difference when the problem happens and when it doesn’t?

© JS ACHIEVE 2018

Using the tools

Activity: Problem Solving

• Identify a problem that needs solving

• Use the tools in the process

• Report back on the root causes identified

© JS ACHIEVE 2018

‘Making up your mind on how to resolve an issue’

Decision Making

© JS ACHIEVE 2018

Plus Minus Implications

More going on (+5) Have to sell house (-6) Easier to find new job? (+1)

Easier to see friends (+5) More pollution (-3) Meet more people? (+2)

Easier to get places (+3) Less space (-3)More difficult to get own workdone? (-4)

No countryside (-2)

More difficult to get to work?(-4)

+13 -18 -1

Plus, Minus, Implications

A young professional is deciding where to live. Her question is 'Should she move to the big city?'

She draws up the PMI table below:

© JS ACHIEVE 2018

Murphy’s Law

‘What ever can go wrong –

will go wrong.’

Capt. Edward A. Murphy

US Air Force, 1949

© JS ACHIEVE 2018

Quantifying Risk

• Ask ‘what if…?’

• Capture all risks

• Score on likelihood of happening

• Score on impact if it did happen

• Multiply likelihood and impact to get a score

© JS ACHIEVE 2018

Opportunities for Better Problem-Solving and D-Making

© JS ACHIEVE 2018

All Adrift –Consensus Decision Making

© JS ACHIEVE 2018

•PMI•Consensus•Tannenbaum Schmidt Continuum•Managing risk

Decision Making-Some Techniques

© JS ACHIEVE 2018

The Steps

1. Recognise the stressful feeling. Press the pause button.

2. Shift your focus to the area around your heart, breath rhythmically through the heart. In for 5 seconds, out for 5 seconds.

3. Re-experience a positive feeling and hold it.

4. Ask what would be a more efficient and effective response to the situation.

5. Write down the first thoughts, words or ideas that occur to you on your worksheet under “intuitive perspective”

Freeze Frame Technique

© JS ACHIEVE 2018

Risk Matrix (Summer Fête Example)

Risk Likelihood Impact Total

Rain 2 1 2

Excess heat 2 3 6

Too few stalls 1 2 2

No promotion 1 3 3

Event date clash 3 2 6

No organiser 3 3 9

© JS ACHIEVE 2018

• Mitigation – reduce the impact!

• Contingency – just in case!

© JS ACHIEVE 2018

• Complete a risk analysis

• Quantify each risk

• Identify contingency and mitigation for your highest scoring risks (min of 2)

© JS ACHIEVE 2018

Decision Making – Tannenbaum Schmidt

© JS ACHIEVE 2018

Take home messages

54

Reduce chronic stress

Exercise regularly

Eat a balanced diet & stay hydrated

Practice goodsleep hygiene

Exercise the brain

S

E

N

S

E

© JS ACHIEVE 2018