Johanna Duffy Barton & Loguidice, D.P.C.

www.climate-change-guide.com

By 2100, the average U.S. temperature is projected to increase by 4°F to 11°F

Hot days are expected to increase and be hotter

EPA – Future Climate Change www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/future.html

Northern areas will become wetter and southern areas will become drier

Heavy precipitation events will increase in frequency

Hurricanes are projected to increase in intensity

Simulations project precipitation changes for the end of this century under a high emission scenario (USGCRP 2009)

EPA – Future Climate Change www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/future.html

Northern Hemisphere snow cover projected to decrease by approx. 15% by 2100

Since 1870, sea level has risen about 8 inches

A 2-foot rise in global sea level is predicted by 2100

Simulations show projected sea ice thickness for March and September under current conditions (A & B) and ice thickness by 2100 (C & D) (NRC 2011)

March September

EPA – Future Climate Change www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/future.html

NYS Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA)

Modeling climate change impacts in NYS

2011 ClimAID Report, 2014 Update

Columbia University, Cornell University, City University of New York

Updated analyses to consider trends and projections within NYS for temperature, precipitation, extreme events, and sea level rise.

Higher average temperatures

Changing precipitation patterns

Sea level rise Increase in frequency

of extreme weather events

www.NHCReport/Flickr

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Horton, R., D. Bader, C. Rosenzweig, A. DeGaetano, and W.Solecki. 2014. Climate Change in New York State: Updating the 2011 ClimAID Climate Risk Information. New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA), Albany, New York.

Horton, R., D. Bader, C. Rosenzweig, A. DeGaetano, and W.Solecki. 2014. Climate Change in New York State: Updating the 2011 ClimAID Climate Risk Information. New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA), Albany, New York.

Horton, R., D. Bader, C. Rosenzweig, A. DeGaetano, and W.Solecki. 2014. Climate Change in New York State: Updating the 2011 ClimAID Climate Risk Information. New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA), Albany, New York.

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Preparedness

Actions, programs, and systems implemented prior to disaster events or emergency situations

Response

Actions undertaken to address the immediate and short-term effects of a disaster event or emergency situation

Recovery

Actions, programs, and events executed to help return the community to an acceptable level of function and organization

Mitigation

Long-term actions or strategies whose implementation looks to eliminate or reduce the effects of disasters or emergencies

Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 HMP – documentation of a government’s

evaluation of natural hazards and the strategies to mitigate such hazards

Mitigation planning requirements State ▪ Condition of disaster assistance

Local ▪ HMGP funding

▪ Single and Multi-Jurisdiction

Tribal governments

Save lives (reduce number of injuries and/or deaths)

Protect property (reduce extent of damage) Limit economic losses Limit environmental impacts Limit social and psychological impacts Reduce disaster response and recovery costs

Details of the Planning Process Hazard Risk Assessment Hazard Vulnerability Analysis Mitigation Action and Strategy

Development Plan Adoption, Approval,

Implementation, and Maintenance

Teamwork and Collaboration

Local government agencies and organizations

Elected officials

Neighboring communities

Private sector

Academia

State and federal agencies

General public

Hazard Risk Assessment

Identify hazards

Profile hazards

Hazard Vulnerability Analysis

Inventory assets

Estimate potential losses

Analyze development trends

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Natural Avalanche Drought Earthquake Epidemic Extreme temperatures Flood Hurricane Ice jam Ice storm Infestation Landslide Severe storm Tornado Tsunami-wave action Wildfire Winter storm (severe)

Technological and human-caused Air contamination Blight Civil unrest Dam failure Explosion Fire Food shortage Fuel shortage Hazardous material – fixed site Hazardous material – in transit Mine collapse Oil spill Radiological – fixed site Radiological – in transit Structural collapse Terrorism Transportation accident Utility failure Water supply contamination

Develop mitigation goals and objectives Identify and prioritize mitigation actions

Prevention

Property protection

Structural projects

Natural resources protection

Emergency services

Public education and awareness

Action and strategy implementation

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Adoption

Participating jurisdictions formally adopt by Board resolution

Approval

Submitted to FEMA by state emergency management office/agency

Implementation

Monitor progress annually

Maintenance

Update and resubmit every 5 years

Dynamic planning document Community focus on

vulnerabilities Mitigation actions and strategies

identified Participating jurisdictions eligible for HMGP funding www.fws.gov

Review climate change projections and compare to the hazards assessed in the HMP

How will potential hazard impacts change? How will the vulnerabilities of each participating

jurisdiction change?

Propose mitigation actions and strategies that consider the long-term effects of climate change

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Type Policy, operations, infrastructural, behavioral

Involved parties Public, private - Levels of government involved

Effort Cost Timing Scale

Widespread, clustered, isolated Benefits and Consequences Resiliency

Heavy rainfalls to increase Localized flash flooding to increase Flooding may increase water pollution Water temperatures to increase Summer precipitation to decrease Reduced flows on larger rivers

www.blogs.jpl.nasa.gov

Establish and promote undeveloped stream buffers

Property acquisition – repetitive flood loss Upgrade CSO systems

Establish drainage basin commissions

Drought management plans

Heavy rainfalls to increase

Changes in annual precipitation

Sea level rise Temperatures to

increase Great Lakes ice cover

to decrease

www.weather.gov - Newsday

Elevate or re-route infrastructure out of flood zones

Pumping equipment availability Culvert assessments – hydraulic analyses Changes in engineering design specifications

www.cortlandwastewater.org www.adirondackalmanack.com

Natural progression of hazard mitigation planning to incorporate and consider climate change implications

Adapting mitigation actions to

include climate change considerations increases chances for implementation

Climate change has the

potential to affect many different resources and divisions – promotes collaboration and sharing of resources

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