Upload
others
View
1
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
www.johcm.com
JOHambroCapitalManagementAnnualSingaporeInvestorDay
WEDNESDAY24OCTOBER2018
Openingaddress
EmilioGonzalezGroupChiefExecutive
JOHambroCapitalManagement– AnnualSingaporeInvestorDay2018
2
Delivering investment strategies globally
Equity funds business established in 2001
*Source: JOHCM as at 30 September 2018. Assets under management shown for our equity strategies in USD. **Source: Lipper Hindsight, IA UK All Companies Sector Rankings to 30 September 2018 (with at least a three year track record).
17/21** Funds are ranked in the top 25% of their industry peer group since inception
23 strategies distributed across key global regions
USD 40.4 billion* of assets
US11 Strategies
UK/Europe18 Strategies
Asia15 Strategies
0.2%
48%
AUM by region
2%
20%
18%
9%
3%
EuropeEmerging Markets
Japan
International & GlobalUK
Asia ex Japan
US
1
42 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
JOH
CM J
apan
JOH
CM J
apan
Div
iden
d G
row
th
JOH
CM A
sia
exJa
pan
JOH
CM A
sia
exJa
pan
SMC
JOH
CM C
ontin
enta
lEu
rope
an
JOH
CM E
urop
ean
Con
cent
rate
d Va
lue
JOH
CM E
urop
ean
Sele
ct V
alue
s
JOH
CM G
loba
l Sel
ect
JOH
CM I
nter
natio
nal
Sele
ct C
ompo
site
JOH
CM G
loba
l Sha
ria
JOH
CM G
loba
lO
ppor
tuni
ties
JOH
CM G
loba
lSm
alle
r Co
mpa
nies
JOH
CM I
nter
natio
nal
Smal
l Cap
ex
USA
JOH
CM E
mer
ging
Mar
kets
JOH
CM E
mer
ging
Mar
kets
Sm
all C
ap
JOH
CM G
EMO
ppor
tuni
ties
JOH
CM U
K D
ynam
ic
JOH
CM U
K Eq
uity
Inco
me
JOH
CM U
K G
row
th
JOH
CM U
KO
ppor
tuni
ties
JOH
CM U
SSm
all &
Mid
CapAn
nual
ised
Rel
ativ
e %
vs.
IA
Peer
Ben
chm
ark
3
JOHCM funds since inception (three-year minimum track records) annualised relative performance vs. IA peer benchmark
Our focus: market-leading long-term investment returns
Source: JOHCM/eVestment Alliance/Lipper as at 30 September 2018 against the respective benchmarks. JOHCM data is annualised, net of fees, retail share class Income reinvested. *The peer group quoted is US Mutual Fund Classification International Small/Mid Cap Growth & US Mutual Fund Objective International Small Cap Funds for this fund.
Japan Europe Global/International EM United Kingdom USAsia
17 out of 21 top quartile since inception
*
4
Our core values and ethos
5
The investment industry continues to evolve
6
Change in market value of major companies
Market index Top 5 stocks in index CCY Market cap local CCY
Market cap over 12 months Change in market cap
over 12 monthsChange in market cap relative
to current market capHigh Low
S&P500 Apple USD 1,058 1,128 726 402 38%
S&P500 Microsoft USD 832 891 592 298 36%
S&P500 Amazon USD 862 1,000 470 531 62%
S&P500 Berkshire Hathaway USD 507 553 446 108 21%
S&P500 Facebook USD 448 632 431 201 45%
TOPIX Toyota JPY 21,046 25,471 21,046 4,425 21%
TOPIX Mitsubishi UFJ Financial JPY 9,292 12,367 8,402 3,966 43%
TOPIX Sony JPY 7,896 8,855 5,130 3,725 47%
TOPIX SoftBank JPY 10,182 12,657 8,299 4,359 43%
TOPIX NTT JPY 9,315 11,517 8,864 2,653 28%
FTSE-100 HSBC GBP 125 159 125 35 28%
FTSE-100 Royal Dutch Shell GBP 209 230 181 49 23%
FTSE-100 BP GBP 112 121 91 30 27%
FTSE-100 British American Tobacco GBP 76 117 74 43 57%
FTSE-100 AstraZeneca GBP 71 78 58 20 28%
Source: Bloomberg. Note: 12 month period is to 12 October 2018. USD and GBP market cap is billions; JPY market cap is trillions.
7
An uncertain world
Rising interest rates
Trade wars
Political populism
Brexit – deal or no deal?
Thank you
JOHCM strategy performance
Composite, since inception to 30 September 2018 (USD)
10
Strategy Inception date
Years of industry experience –
Senior Fund Manager(s)
Strategy-Gross(% p.a.)
Strategy-Net(% p.a.)
Benchmark (% p.a.)
Gross Geometric
relative (%)
Global Opportunities Jun 12 16 & 10 13.56 11.85 10.87 2.43
International Opportunities Oct 16 16 & 10 8.30 7.33 10.62 -2.10
International Small Cap Nov 13 33 7.77 6.43 5.59 2.06
Emerging Markets Apr 10 28 & 23 5.09 4.05 2.82 2.21
Emerging Markets Small Cap Nov 14 19 9.26 8.23 1.74 7.39
Global Emerging Markets Opportunities Jun 11 24 & 19 3.56 2.17 1.22 2.31
Global Income Builder - Multi Asset Dec 17 22 & 22 & 19 0.34 -0.45 n/a n/a
Asia ex Japan Sep 11 28 9.20 7.40 8.21 0.91
Asia ex Japan Small and Mid Cap Sep 11 25 9.70 7.22 5.77 3.71
Japan Dividend Growth Mar 14 42 & 33 6.94 6.01 8.75 -1.67
UK Growth Nov 01 26 & 14 9.49 7.78 6.09 3.20
UK Opportunities Nov 05 21 & 12 7.41 6.04 4.65 2.64
UK Dynamic* Jun 08 22 9.33 7.55 3.14 6.00
US Small Mid Cap Sep 14 27 & 22 & 22 13.55 12.08 11.98 1.40
Continental European Nov 01 21 10.77 9.05 6.58 3.93
European Concentrated Value Mar 15 28 7.05 6.13 3.95 2.99
Source: JOHCM/Statpro/Lipper/eVestment Alliance. Composite gross and net performance in USD as at 30 September 2018. Geometric relative shown against gross performance.Benchmarks: MSCI ACWI NR Index (Global Opportunities), MSCI EAFE NR Index (International Opportunities), MSCI AC World ex US SMC NR Index (International Small Cap), MSCIEmerging Markets NR Index (Emerging Markets, Global Emerging Markets Opportunities), MSCI Emerging Markets SMC (Emerging Markets Small Cap), MSCI AC Asia ex Japan NRIndex (Asia ex Japan), MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Small Cap NR Index (Asia ex Japan SMID), TOPIX 100 TR Index (Japan Dividend Growth), FTSE All-Share TR Index (UK Growth, UKOpportunities & UK Dynamic), Russell 2500 TR Index (US Small Mid Cap Equity), MSCI Europe ex UK NR Index (Continental European), MSCI Europe NR Index (EuropeanConcentrated Values). *Originally launched as the Ryder Court UK Dynamic Fund on 16 June 2008 and converted to the JOHCM UK Dynamic Fund on 23 October 2009. 9
Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance
JOHCM strategy performance
Composite, since inception to 30 September 2018 (USD)
10
Strategy Inception date
Years of industry experience –
Senior Fund Manager(s)
Strategy-Gross(% p.a.)
Strategy-Net(% p.a.)
Benchmark (% p.a.)
Gross Geometric
relative (%)
Global Select Sep 08 29 & 19 10.37 8.99 8.19 2.01
International Select Oct 08 29 & 19 13.51 12.42 7.85 5.25
UK Equity Income Nov 04 29 & 24 8.64 6.97 4.99 3.48
Japan May 04 42 & 33 6.26 4.75 5.05 1.15
European Select Values May 03 28 13.35 11.04 7.03 5.91
Closed to new investors – capacity full
Source: JOHCM/Statpro/Lipper/eVestment Alliance. Composite gross and net performance in USD as at 30 September 2018. Geometric relative shown againstgross performance. Benchmarks: MSCI ACWI NR Index Global Select, MSCI EAFE NR Index (International Select), TOPIX TR Index (Japan), MSCI Europe NRIndex (European Select Values), FTSE All-Share TR Index (UK Equity Income).
Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance
THIS DOCUMENT IS FOR PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS ONLY.
J O Hambro Capital Management Limited . Registered in England No:2176004. Authorised & regulated by the UK Financial ConductAuthority. Registered office: Ground Floor, Ryder Court, 14 Ryder Street, London SW1Y 6QB, United Kingdom.The registered mark J O Hambro® is owned by Wiltons Holdings Limited and is used under licence. JOHCM® is a registered trademarkof J O Hambro Capital Management Limited.The information in this document does not constitute, or form part of, any offer to sell or issue, or any solicitation of an offer to purchaseor subscribe for the proposed Funds described in this document; nor shall this document, or any part of it, or the fact of its distributionform the basis of, or be relied on, in connection with any contract. Recipients of this document who intend to subscribe to any of theproposed Funds are reminded that any such purchase may only be made solely on the basis of the information contained in the finalprospectus, which may be different from the information contained in this document. No reliance may be placed for any purposewhatsoever on the information contained in this document or on the completeness, accuracy or fairness thereof.No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made or given by or on behalf of the Firm or its partners or any other person as tothe accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information or opinions contained in this document, and no responsibility or liability isaccepted for any such information or opinions (but so that nothing in this paragraph shall exclude liability for any representation orwarranty made fraudulently).The distribution of this document in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law; therefore, persons into whose possession thisdocument comes should inform themselves about and observe any such restrictions. Any such distribution could result in a violation ofthe law of such jurisdictions.The information contained in this presentation has been verified by the firm. It is possible that, from time to time, the fund managermay choose to vary self imposed guidelines contained in this presentation in which case some statements may no longer remain valid.We recommend that prospective investors request confirmation of such changes prior to investment. Notwithstanding, all investmentrestrictions contained in specific fund documentation such as prospectuses, supplements or placement memoranda or addenda theretomay be relied upon.
Disclaimer
THIS DOCUMENT IS FOR PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS ONLY.
Investors should note that this strategy invests in emerging markets and such investments may carry risks with failed or delayedsettlement and with registration and custody of securities. Companies in emerging markets may not be subject to accounting, auditingand financial reporting standards or be subject to the same level of government supervision and regulation as in more developedmarkets. Government involvement in the economy may affect the value of investments in certain emerging markets and the risk ofpolitical instability may be high. The reliability of trading and settlement systems in some emerging markets may not be equal to thatavailable in more developed markets which may result in problems in realising investments. Lack of liquidity and efficiency in certain ofthe stock markets or foreign exchange markets in certain emerging markets may mean that from time to time the Investment Managermay experience difficulty in purchasing or selling holdings of securities. Furthermore, due to local postal and banking systems, noguarantee can be given that all entitlements attaching to quoted and over-the counter traded securities acquired by this strategy,including those related to dividends, can be realised.Investments fluctuate in value and may fall as well as rise and that investors may not get back the value of their original investment.Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.Investors should note that there may be no recognised market for investments selected by the Investment Manager and it may,therefore, be difficult to deal in the investments or to obtain reliable information about their value or the extent of the risks to whichthey are exposed.The Investment Manager may undertake investments on behalf of the Fund in countries other than the investors’ owndomicile. Investors should also note that changes in rates of exchange may cause the value of investments to go up or down.Sources for all data: JOHCM (unless otherwise stated).The information contained herein including any expression of opinion is for information purposes only and is given on the understandingthat it is not a recommendation.
Information on how JOHCM handles personal data which it receives can be found in the JOHCM Privacy Statement on itswebsite: www.johcm.com
Disclaimer (continued)
JOHCMGlobalIncomeBuilderFundAbottom-up,valueapproachtobuildingincome
GiorgioCaputoSeniorFundManagerandTeamHead
JOHambroCapitalManagement– AnnualSingaporeInvestorDay2018
Introduction – Global Income Builder Fund
1
Strong and stable income generation
A pure bottom-up process not influenced by top-down asset allocation
Carefully considered value ideas each with a margin of safety
A global approach that seeks value unconstrained by geographic boundaries
A conservative, differentiated approach to global income investing
A value philosophy that can look across the capital structure
The JOHCM Global Income Builder Fund employs a bottom-up, value philosophy across asset classes
Seek first and foremost to avoid the permanent loss of capital
› Warren Buffet’s “Rule number 1” is our primary focus as well
Invest with a margin of safety – value is absolutenot relative
Benchmark-agnostic – be willing to avoid certain asset classes entirely, if overvalued
Value investing is long-term investing –over/under-valuations can persist for years
Bottom-up investors who are able to look across the capital structure are rare in today’s age of specialisation
1
2
3
4
Most professionals are assigned to particular market niches, as in ‘I work in the equity
department’ or ‘I’m a bond manager.’
Who, then, makes and implements the decisions that would drive out relative mispricings
between asset classes?
Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing
We are absolute value investors who seek global income with a margin of safety
2
Our value investing heritage
3
Name Career Team role Recent experience
Giorgio Caputo 22 Senior Fund Manager -Team Head
First Eagle Investment Management - Global Value Team;JANA Partners
Robert Hordon 22 Senior Fund Manager First Eagle Investment Management - Global Value Team
Lale Topcuoglu 18 Senior Fund Manager -Head of Credit
Goldman Sachs Asset Management - Global Head of Alternative Corporate Credit, Co-Head of Global Investment Grade
Remy Gicquel 12 Analyst Harris Associates/Oakmark - International Team;DNCA Investments
Hugues Le Bras 5 Analyst Paradigm Capital;First Eagle Investment Management - Global Value Team
• Messrs Caputo and Hordon have worked together since 2009 and led the development of the First Eagle Global Income Builder strategy, which they co-managed from its 2011 launch until 2016
› Co-PMs of First Eagle Global Income Builder Fund (incepted May 2012) and First Eagle Amundi Income Builder Fund (Sept. 2014)
• Ms Topcuoglu co-managed the Goldman Sachs Income Builder Fund in conjunction with GSAM Value Equities Team
• Mr Gicquel worked with international value investor David Herro on the Oakmark International Fund
• Mr Le Bras worked with Messrs Caputo and Hordon while at First Eagle
J O Hambro – an ideal platform for our global income strategy
4
• A “boutique of investment boutiques” with global scale and insight
› 16 autonomous investment teams
› Collaborative culture
› Intellectual freedom – no house view
› Performance-driven
› Transparency of rewards
› Shared infrastructure and resources
› Capacity-limited strategies
Advantages of global reach and specialised knowledge of broader organisation.
**Denotes income-orientation or sovereign focus.
A global fund seeking current income and long-term appreciation
5
• 4-6% yield target* maintains ability to grow the principal in real terms over time
› Equity investments contribute to income and drive long-term growth
› Corporate debt capability anchors current distributions
• Value investing process focuses capital on the best risk/reward opportunities
› Focus on generating strong risk-adjusted returns; avoid reaching for yield
A moderate risk income strategy… …that can be part of a diversified portfolio
A tool for wealth managers to use when developing asset allocations for conservative clients and those who have entered distribution phase
*Represents an estimate over a cycle and before fund expenses. Actual income levels will depend on market environments, security valuation and interest rate levels and will be subject to our focus on capital preservation first and foremost.
Distribution-Oriented
Appreciation-Oriented
Global Income Builder
Real Estate / Infrastructure
Equity Income
Equity Appreciation
Partnerships / Royalty Trusts
High Yield / BDCs
Traditional Fixed Income
Global Income Builder
Real Estate / Infrastructure
Equity Income
Equity Appreciation
Partnerships / Royalty Trusts
High Yield / BDCs
Traditional Fixed Income
Bottom-up portfolio construction
6
*Under normal circumstances the Fund is permitted to invest in a portfolio of between 30% and 70% equity securities, with the balance of its assets invested in fixed income securities, hedging assets and cash or cash equivalents.
Securities are selected on the basis of their merits as absolute value investments, along with their potential to contribute income to the portfolio
Equity Holdings Fixed Income & Reserve Buying Power
• Typically 40-65% of the portfolio*
• Focus on global dividend-paying equities
• Positions limited to 2% at cost; 3% at market
• Longer term holding period: 3-5+ years
• Quality, stability bias; willingness to relax quality standards only for exceptional risk/reward
• 35-60% of the portfolio
• Underpinned by corporate debt investments
• Positions limited to 3% cost and market
• Somewhat higher turnover due to maturities & calls
• Hedge assets (cash, sovereign debt and gold-related investments) generally between 5-15%
• Approximately 100+ holdings (by issuer) across equity and fixed income provide significant diversification
• Generally at least 40% invested in equities; at least 30% invested in fixed income
• Allocation to hedge assets (typically 5-15%) provides reserve buying power in periods of market stress
• Benchmark-agnostic; low turnover
• Capacity limit designed to maintain access to smaller cap income equities and idiosyncratic debt issues
Persistence
Mar
gin
of S
afet
ySeeking to invest in durable businesses on favourable terms
7
Persistence, margin of safety and income drive buy and sell decisions and position size
• Our framework to assess trade-offs emphasises margin of safety and business persistence
These criteria help us to assess a potential investment’s contribution to the strategy’s objectives:
• Capital appreciation - driven by margin of safety and value creation of holdings
• Income - attractive yet sustainable
• Portfolio resilience - aided by valuation discipline and business persistence
Our largest holdings typically display either above average persistence or substantial undervaluation
Assessing business persistence
8
Financial Leverage• Debt magnifies business risks and can lead to dilutive rights offerings, equity raises
and debt restructuring; focus on debt ahead of our claim1
Operating Leverage• Significant fixed costs can render operating profits more volatile, and require an
appropriately conservative capital structure2
Cyclicality• Strong businesses with solid balance sheets can improve competitive positions in a
cyclical downturn, but the cycles must be managed3
Disruption Threat• Review of disruptive technologies that risk disintermediation of the enterprise and
assessment of social licence and ESG risks4
Management Quality• Poor capital allocation can impair essentially any investment
• Management’s operating skill is a key risk that must be assessed as well5
Barriers to Entry• The key to earning returns above the cost of capital; also evidenced by strong
market share, profit margins, value chain dominance 6
Secular Growth• Favourable long-term growth dynamics can create a tailwind for business
persistence, while headwinds can lead to damaging pressure7
Assessing margin of safety across the capital structure
9
• Margin of safety (MOS) represents the difference between intrinsic value and market value, based on the attachment point to the capital structure
• Emphasis on MOS is both defensive and offensive
› Provides valuation cushion in the event of adverse business developments or analytical errors
› Opportunity for upside potential from temporarily underappreciated securities
• More persistent businesses often require lower discount rates and trade at higher cash flow multiples
› Avoid securities where perception exceeds reality
• We are willing on occasion to own businesses with lower persistence when appropriately compensated for the risk
• MOS criteria makes it difficult to own equity in levered capital structures
We generally require a 20% margin of safety with more needed for businesses with lower persistence
Intrinsic enterprise value estimated at 6x EBITDA
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
All Equity Levered Firm
Secured Debt Unsecured Debt Equity
Do not invest unless valuation is 4.8x or less for 20% MOS
Levered firm requires 60% equity discount!
But both debt tranches are covered
Margin of safety can come from a variety of sources
10
Company descriptionLeading commercial property landlord and developer in Hong Kong and Mainland China with differentiated expertise in luxury retail.
Investment thesisSignificant discount to private market value of real estate assets with robust cash flow growth expected due to market recovery and project maturation.
An intellectually consistent approach across asset classes
Company descriptionEstablished global provider of outsourced cafeterias, concessions and facility services.
Investment thesisWell-entrenched operator in moderately growing end markets with low customer churn and high long-term earnings visibility. Moderate leverage with significant equity value beneath debt load.
Asset class: CREDIT/HY
(Security: ARMK 5% 02/01/2028)
Country: USA
Issue size: $1.15B USD
Industry:Food and facilities management
Yield to worst: 5.4%
Persistence score: 2.0
Margin of safety: Net debt/EV 36%
Asset class: EQUITY
(Security: 101 HK)
Country: Hong Kong
Issue size: $10B USD
Industry: Real estate
Dividend yield: 4.6%
Persistence score: 2.4
Margin of safety: IV discount 40%+
The information contained herein including any expression of opinion is for information purposes only and is given on the understanding that it is not a recommendation.
Source of income driven by bottom-up opportunity set
11
Capital is allocated from lower risk to higher risk investments when negative sentiment translates into greater margin of safety
ERA: Equity-oriented Risk Assets
• Income generative equities and debt instruments with equity-like risk/return characteristics
• Drive capital appreciation and deliver income
FIB: Fixed Income Base
• High quality High Yield and Investment Grade debt
• Underpin income generation and provide stable returns
RBP: Reserve Buying Power
• Cash, US Treasury instruments, Gold-related investments
• Capital that can be readily deployed (and may act as a hedge) in periods of market stress to take advantage of attractive prices
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
"Risk On" "Risk Off"
Market Environment
ERA
FIB
RBP
• Largest allocation to investments that offer most attractive combination of persistence and MOS.
• Position sizes limited to ensure portfolio diversification
• Avoid over-exposure to individual sectors, geographies or investment themes/factors.
• Add or remove capital to individual positions as price/value evolves
• Ongoing business monitoring to keep valuation current
• Exit positions that no longer offer acceptable MOS
Portfolio and risk management
• Largest allocation to investments that offer most attractive combination of persistence and MOS.
• Position sizes limited to ensure portfolio diversification
• Avoid over-exposure to individual sectors, geographies or investment themes/factors.
• Add or remove capital to individual positions as price/value evolves
• Ongoing business monitoring to keep valuation current
• Exit positions that no longer offer acceptable MOS
Portfolio and risk management
The investment decision lifecycle
12
• Assess barriers to entry / competitive advantage and examine industry dynamics
• Review industry prospects and risk of obsolescence
• Review management history and incentive structure
• Conduct confirmatory due diligence and primary research
• Work towards overall assessment of persistence
Qualitative research
• Select most appropriate valuation methods and estimate business value
• Assess income sustainability
• Avoid being subordinate to significant financial leverage or environmental or other claims
• Work toward overall assessment of margin of safety
Quantitative research
Summary – J O Hambro Global Income Builder
13
Strong and stable income generation
A pure bottom-up process not influenced by top-down asset allocation
Carefully considered value ideas each with a margin of safety
A global approach that seeks value unconstrained by geographic boundaries
A conservative, differentiated approach to global income investing
Thank you
THIS DOCUMENT IS FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS ONLY.
J O Hambro Capital Management Limited . Registered in England No:2176004. Authorised & regulated by the UK Financial ConductAuthority. Registered office: Ground Floor, Ryder Court, 14 Ryder Street, London SW1Y 6QB, United Kingdom. J O Hambro CapitalManagement Limited is also an investment advisor registered with the US Securities and Exchange Commission under the InvestmentAdvisers Act of 1940.
The registered mark J O Hambro® is owned by Barnham Broom Holdings Limited and is used under licence. JOHCM® is a registeredtrademark of J O Hambro Capital Management Limited.
The information in this document does not constitute, or form part of, any offer to sell or issue, or any solicitation of an offer to purchaseor subscribe for the proposed Funds described in this document; nor shall this document, or any part of it, or the fact of its distributionform the basis of, or be relied on, in connection with any contract.
Recipients of this document who intend to subscribe to any of the proposed Funds are reminded that any such purchase may only bemade solely on the basis of the information contained in the final prospectus, which may be different from the information contained inthis document. No reliance may be placed for any purpose whatsoever on the information contained in this document or on thecompleteness, accuracy or fairness thereof.
No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made or given by or on behalf of the Firm or its partners or any other person as tothe accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information or opinions contained in this document, and no responsibility or liability isaccepted for any such information or opinions (but so that nothing in this paragraph shall exclude liability for any representation orwarranty made fraudulently).
The distribution of this document in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law; therefore, persons into whose possession thisdocument comes should inform themselves about and observe any such restrictions. Any such distribution could result in a violation ofthe law of such jurisdictions.
8252
Disclaimer
THIS DOCUMENT IS FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS ONLY.
The information contained in this presentation has been verified by the firm. It is possible that, from time to time, the fund manager maychoose to vary self imposed guidelines contained in this presentation in which case some statements may no longer remain valid. Werecommend that prospective investors request confirmation of such changes prior to investment. Notwithstanding, all investmentrestrictions contained in specific fund documentation such as prospectuses, supplements or placement memoranda or addenda theretomay be relied upon.Investments fluctuate in value and may fall as well as rise and that investors may not get back the value of their original investment.Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Investors should note that there may be no recognised market for investments selected by the Investment Manager and it may, therefore,be difficult to deal in the investments or to obtain reliable information about their value or the extent of the risks to which they areexposed.
The information contained herein including any expression of opinion is for information purposes only and is given on the understandingthat it is not a recommendation.
The Investment Manager may undertake investments on behalf of the Fund in countries other than the investors’ own domicile. Investorsshould also note that changes in rates of exchange may cause the value of investments to go up or down.
The information contained herein including any expression of opinion is for information purposes only and is given on the understandingthat it is not a recommendation.
Sources for all data: JOHCM (unless otherwise stated).
The annual management charge is deducted from capital. This will increase income but may constrain or erode potential capital growth.
Information on how JOHCM handles personal data which it receives can be found in the JOHCM Privacy Statement on itswebsite: www.johcm.com
Disclaimer
JOHCMAsiaexJapanJOHCMAsiaexJapanSmallandMidCapFund
Globalisation– amirage?HowdowebuildaportfolioforAsianequities?
SamirMehtaSeniorFundManager
Cho YuKooiSeniorFundManager
JOHambroCapitalManagement– AnnualSingaporeInvestorDay2018 www.johcm.com
FORPROFESSIONALINVESTORSONLY
JOHCM Asia ex Japan Fund
Net performance in USD since inception as at 30 September 2018
Source: JOHCM/MSCI Barra. NAV of share class A in USD, net income reinvested, net of fees, as at 30 September 2018. *Part period since inception: 30 September to 31 December 2011. All fund performance is shown against the MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan NR Index (12pm adjusted). Performance of other share classes may vary and is available upon request. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 2
6.60
26.08
8.27 7.83
-5.89
2.15
32.89
-16.09
-2.70
7.713.23
22.65
2.94 4.98
-9.33
5.54
41.84
-6.35-1.61
8.23
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2011* 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD Q3 2018 SI (p.a)
%
JOHCM Asia ex Japan Fund MSCI AC Asia ex Japan NR Index (12pm adjusted)
1 year to 30 Sep 2018 1 year to 30 Sep 2017 1 year to 30 Sep 2016 1 year to 30 Sep 2015 1 year to 30 Sep 2014
-11.42 11.65 14.47 -3.77 11.57
JOHCM Asia ex Japan Fund – 5 year net discrete performance (%)
Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance
2.90
29.64
9.07
14.37
9.60
-7.49
18.98
-14.55 -12.38
8.02
-0.80
22.66
6.772.44
-3.73 -2.20
33.65
-11.50
-4.54
5.78
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2011* 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD Q3 2018 SI (p.a)
%
JOHCM Asia ex Japan Small and Mid-Cap Fund MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Small Cap NR Index (12pm adjusted)
JOHCM Asia ex Japan Small and Mid-Cap Fund
Net performance in USD since inception as at 30 September 2018
Source: JOHCM/MSCI Barra. NAV of share class A in USD, net income reinvested, net of fees, as at 30 September 2018. *Part period since inception: 30 September to 31 December 2011. All fund performance is shown against the MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan Small Cap NR Index (12pm adjusted). Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 3
1 year to 30 Sep 2018 1 year to 30 Sep 2017 1 year to 30 Sep 2016 1 year to 30 Sep 2015 1 year to 30 Sep 2014
-13.89 5.38 7.60 7.29 15.34
JOHCM Asia ex Japan Small & Mid Cap Fund – 5 year net discrete performance (%)
Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance
Ghosts of David Ricardo and shareholder wealth creation
Source: IMF WEO and IMF Direction of Statistics, World Bank and Bloomberg as at December 2017.
In general has been a win-win for all
4
US$
Tril
lion
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
World GDP (US$ Trillion) (LHS) World trade (% of GDP) (RHS)
In hindsight, wasn’t this inevitable?
Source: IMF WEO and IMF Direction of Statistics as at December 2017.
China exports & China imports
5
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
US$
bn
CN Exports CN Imports
Global dispersion of wealth
Source: IMF WEO and IMF Direction of Statistics.
GDP per capita (in USD)
6
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
US$
Japan Korea
Taiwan China
Game of Thrones or League of Legends?
7
Economies of scale powered manufacturers
Source: Bloomberg.
Market cap of Apple and its supply chain
8
$4.99bn $1,086bn
$29.6bn $225.2bn
Then…January 2001
…and NowSeptember 2018
$19.86bn $273.6bn
Dissipating borders led to global dominance
Source: Bloomberg.
Market cap
9
$7.92bn $77.36bn
$4.94bn $981.8bn
Then…January 2001
…and NowSeptember 2018
$7.96bn $43.62bn
What are the imponderables?
• Tariffs; trade wars; isolationism are they permanent? NAFTA; Affordable Care Act
• Biggest manifestation is cross border capital flows – expect capital controls?
• Yet MSCI, FTSE and Russell are raising China A-shares weightings
• If data is the new oil what does it mean for sovereignty of data?
• GDPR ++; splintering of data into country specific reservoirs?
• Geopolitical conflicts? Thucydides Trap
• Does the USD remain the reserve currency or do we start to see alternatives?
10
What is very probable
• Reorganisation of manufacturing facilities and supply chains
• Back up plans and redundancies
• Larger domestic economies could be more resilient than smaller open economies
• Slower growth and deleveraging
• Import substitution – the very threat of barriers will fuel a trend
11
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
65
75
85
95
105
115
125
Jan 90 Nov 91 Oct 93 Sep 95 Aug 97 Jul 99 Jun 01 May 03 Mar 05 Feb 07 Jan 09 Dec 10 Nov 12 Oct 14 Sep 16 Aug 18
US$ Index (LHS)
MSCI Asia ex Japan Index (RHS)
USD – The reserve currency
Source: Bloomberg as at 30 September 2018.
Inde
x Index
12
Do we need to change our approach?
On our core holdings, our focus remains ROCE, ROAs, low debt and sustainable growth
We have added additional layers of screening:
• Is it a business that can benefit from import substitution?
• Are there any idiosyncratic drivers for the business or the firm?
On our cyclical stocks
• Counter intuitively, as interest rates rise – pockets of pricing power
13
Asian Paints - India
Source: Bloomberg, company data for year ending 31 March 2018.
• Entrenched competitive advantages
• Paints have low penetration in India
• Strong cash flow generation ability with high ROCE
14
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
ROCE (%) (LHS) EBIT Margins (%) (LHS) Revenues(Rp bn) (RHS)
Jollibee Foods Corp – Philippines
Source: Bloomberg, company data for year ending 31 December 2017.
• Well managed QSR business
• Managed disruption in China
• Expanding footprint globally
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0
5
10
15
20
25
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017ROCE (%) (LHS) EBIT Margin (%) (LHS) Sales Growth yoy (%) (RHS)
15
LG Household & Healthcare – South Korea
Source: Bloomberg, company data for year ending 31 December 2017.
• Built an attractive cosmetics business
• Steady state HPC cash flows
• Growth in China resumes
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017ROCE (%) (LHS) EBIT Margin (%) (LHS) Sales Growth yoy (%) (RHS)
16
Foshan Haitian – China
Source: Bloomberg, company data for year ending 31 December 2017.
• Business with high barriers to entry
• Dominant player yet only 13% market share
• Steady demand with option for premium products
• Pricing power; high margins and sustained ROCE’s
17
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
ROCE (%) (LHS) EBIT Margins (%) (LHS) Revenues(Rp bn) (RHS)
Tata Consultancy Services – India
Source: Bloomberg, company data for year ending 31 December 2017.
• Digital disruption past
• Currency headwind behind us
• Winning new business
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar 15 Mar 16 Mar 17 Mar 18
ROCE (%) (LHS) EBIT Margin (%) (LHS) Sales Growth yoy (%) (RHS)
18
Sustainable compounders – Health Management International
Source: Bloomberg, company data for year ending 30 June 2017.
• Private healthcare service provider operating 2 hospitals in Malaysia
• Inadequate public healthcare system combined with rising affluence drive demand for private healthcare
• Higher revenue intensive treatments and the addition of sub-specialties increase patient load and bill size
• Potential for opportunistic acquisitions and overseas expansion, eg. StarMedin May 2018
• Resilient business with strong cash generation
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017
ROCE % (LHS) EBIT Margin % (LHS) Sales Growth yoy % (RHS)
19
Sustainable compounders – Douzone Bizon
Source: Bloomberg, company data for year ending 31 December 2017.
• A leading ERP solution provider in Korea’s SME market
• Cloud-based services launched in 2011 has expanded its target market and raised its ARPU
• Since 2015, its advanced ERP products has gained traction with mid-to-large sized companies
• Scalable and highly cash generative business model
-2
2
6
10
14
18
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017
ROCE % (LHS) EBIT Margin % (LHS) Sales Growth yoy % (RHS)
20
Sustainable compounders – Taiwan FamilyMart
Source: Bloomberg, company data for year ending 31 December 2017.
• Taiwan’s second largest convenience store operator
• Store network expansion and resilient same-store sales growth
• Increasing contribution of higher margin fresh food and commission businesses
• Turnaround of loss-making in-house bread factory in 2H2018
• Icing on the cake: its 18.3% stake in China Familymart which achieved profitability in 2013 and is growing steadily
• Resilient business with strong cash generation
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017
ROCE % (LHS) EBIT Margin % (LHS) Sales Growth yoy % (RHS)
21
Portfolio breakdown
Sector and country holdings as at 30 September 2018
Portfolio breakdown – JOHCM Asia ex Japan Fund
Source: JOHCM/Bloomberg/MSCI Barra as at 30 September 2018. Please note that due to rounding weights will not add to 100%. Cash position is 1.33%. Benchmark: MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan NR Index (12pm adjusted). 22
SectorPortfolio weight
(%)
Benchmark weight
(%)
Relative to benchmark
(%)
Consumer Discretionary 24.32 8.30 16.02
Consumer Staples 19.79 4.86 14.94
Materials 5.24 4.85 0.39
Utilities 3.33 3.14 0.19
Health Care 2.64 3.13 -0.49
Energy 3.41 5.12 -1.71
Industrials 4.37 6.87 -2.50
Telecommunications 0.00 4.10 -4.10
Real Estate 0.00 5.77 -5.77
Information Technology 23.85 30.60 -6.76
Financials 11.74 23.27 -11.53
CountryPortfolio weight
(%)
Benchmark weight
(%)
Relative to benchmark
(%)
India 24.02 9.70 14.32
Indonesia 5.40 2.22 3.18
Thailand 4.62 2.82 1.80
Philippines 2.82 1.09 1.73
Malaysia 3.02 2.76 0.26
Pakistan 0.00 0.07 -0.07
Taiwan 13.00 13.97 -0.98
Hong Kong 9.38 11.17 -1.79
Singapore 0.00 4.03 -4.03
Korea 10.11 16.92 -6.81
China 21.68 35.24 -13.57
Non Benchmark Countries 4.62 0.00 4.62
As at 30 September 2018
Top ten holdings – JOHCM Asia ex Japan Fund
Source: JOHCM/Bloomberg/MSCI Barra as at 30 September 2018. Benchmark: MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan NR (12pm adjusted) Index.
23
Rank Stock Portfolio weight (%)
Benchmark weight (%)
Relative to benchmark (%)
1 Taiwan Semiconductor 5.68 4.65 1.03
2 Weibo 4.72 0.09 4.63
3 Prada Spa 4.62 0.00 4.62
4 Tencent Holdings 3.82 5.17 -1.35
5 LG Household & Health 3.67 0.24 3.43
6 Tata Consultancy 3.46 0.61 2.85
7 Reliance Industries 3.41 1.09 2.32
8 Gudang Garam 3.32 0.05 3.27
9 Sands China 3.32 0.24 3.08
10 ITC Limited 3.31 0.31 3.00
Sector and country holdings as at 30 September 2018
Portfolio breakdown– JOHCM Asia ex Japan Small & Mid Cap Fund
24
Source: JOHCM/Bloomberg/MSCI Barra as at 30 September 2018. Please note that due to rounding weights will not add to 100%. Cash position is 0.20%. Benchmark: MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan Small Cap NR Index (12pm adjusted).
SectorPortfolio weight
(%)
Benchmark weight
(%)
Relative to benchmark
(%)
Consumer Discretionary 34.80 16.62 18.18
Consumer Staples 19.49 5.71 13.77
Telecommunications 2.09 1.63 0.47
Health Care 9.49 9.78 -0.29
Energy 0.00 1.96 -1.96
Financials 6.73 8.88 -2.16
Information Technology 15.40 17.75 -2.35
Utilities 0.00 2.55 -2.55
Industrials 9.12 13.40 -4.28
Materials 2.68 10.23 -7.55
Real Estate 0.00 11.49 -11.49
CountryPortfolio weight
(%)
Benchmark weight
(%)
Relative to benchmark
(%)
Indonesia 14.33 2.43 11.90
China 24.07 13.95 10.12
Hong Kong 14.39 7.94 6.45
Singapore 9.91 6.74 3.17
Philippines 2.63 0.93 1.70
Malaysia 3.08 3.79 -0.71
Pakistan 0.00 0.85 -0.85
Thailand 3.35 4.79 -1.44
Taiwan 15.74 21.51 -5.77
India 3.50 14.84 -11.34
Korea 8.80 22.23 -13.43
Top ten holdings – JOHCM Asia ex Japan Small & Mid Cap Fund
Source: JOHCM/Bloomberg/MSCI Barra as at 30 September 2018. Benchmark: MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan Small Cap NR (12pm adjusted) Index.
As at 30 September 2018
Rank Stock Portfolio weight (%)
Benchmark weight (%)
Relative to benchmark (%)
1 Alfamart 3.53 0.00 3.53
2 Union Medical 3.42 0.00 3.42
3 Baozun 3.15 0.00 3.15
4 Taiwan FamilyMart 2.88 0.00 2.88
5 Hua Hong SC 2.73 0.00 2.73
6 Arwana Citramulia 2.68 0.00 2.68
7 Singapore O&G 2.55 0.00 2.55
8 China Education Group 2.54 0.00 2.54
9 Convenience Retail Asia 2.47 0.00 2.47
10 Xiabuxiabu Catering 2.42 0.00 2.42
Total 28.37 0.00 28.37
25
Appendix
India’s credit growth and lending rate
USD drives the domestic credit and rate cycle in EM economies
Source: CLSA and Bloomberg 31 March 2018.
27
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Mar98
Mar99
Mar00
Mar01
Mar02
Mar03
Mar04
Mar05
Mar06
Mar07
Mar08
Mar09
Mar10
Mar11
Mar12
Mar13
Mar14
Mar15
Mar16
Mar17
Mar18
Nominal GDP growth y/y % (LHS) Credit growth y/y % (LHS) State Bank of India - Lending Rate (normalised to 1yr MCLR) (%) (RHS)
Bad bubble financed by bank credit
Source: Bloomberg as at 30 September 2017.
28
Inde
x
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
50
100
150
200
250
Mar 85 Mar 87 Mar 89 Mar 91 Mar 93 Mar 95 Mar 97 Mar 99 Mar 01 Mar 03 Mar 05 Mar 07 Mar 09 Mar 11 Mar 13 Mar 15 Mar 17
Japan Land Price National (LHS) 2000 = 100 TOPIX Banks Index (RHS)
Good bubble financed by capital markets
Source: Bloomberg as at 30 September 2018.
29
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1500
2500
3500
4500
5500
6500
7500
8500
Mar 95 Sep 96 Apr 98 Nov 99 Jun 01 Dec 02 Jul 04 Feb 06 Sep 07 Mar 09 Oct 10 May 12 Dec 13 Jun 15 Jan 17 Aug 18
NASDAQ Composite Index (LHS) S&P 500 Banks Index (RHS)
Inde
x
Inde
x
Thank you
JOHCM Asia
31
• The team’s investment approach was developed over their long period of managing Asian equities and is consistent with the approach previously utilised at Lloyd George Management
• There are two strategies using a similar investment process:
› All-cap strategy managed by Samir Mehta which invests in stocks with market capitalisations >USD 500m
› SMID strategy managed by Cho-Yu Kooi which invests in stocks with market capitalisations of <USD 4bn (at purchase)
• Fundamental, quality biased, high conviction stock picking
• Benchmark agnostic, low turnover and absolute return approach
• Capacity is limited in order to protect client interests
› All-cap capacity USD 2.5bn
› SMID capacity USD 1bn
Asia team
Experience
Samir Mehta, CFASenior Fund Manager• Manages all-cap Asia ex Japan
• 28 years investment experience in Asia
• Former CIO at Lloyd George Management; worked from 1998-2007 managed peak AUM of USD 5bn
Cho-Yu Kooi, CFA Senior Fund Manager• Manages small and mid-cap (SMID) Asia ex Japan
• 25 years investment experience in Asia
• Former PM at Lloyd George Management; worked from 2001-2008 managing peak AUM of USD 1.1bn
32
Investment professionals
Samir Mehta, CFASenior Fund Manager28 years industry experience, joined JOHCM in May 2011Samir is Senior Fund Manager of the JOHCM Asia ex Japan Strategy. Prior to joining JOHCM, he was a Partner and Chief Investment Officer(CIO) at a firm specialising in Asian equities – Silver Metis Capital Management Pte Ltd. Samir was previously at Lloyd George Management(LGM) where he worked from 1998 to 2007 as CIO. At LGM he was Lead Manager for a range of institutional Asia Pacific mandates, valuedat over US$5bn at peak asset levels. Samir was also responsible for the LGM investment process and managed a team of 20 investmentprofessionals. Prior to joining LGM, he worked at Peregrine Securities and ANZ Grindlays Bank for close to eight years as an Analystspecialising in India. Samir is a CFA Charterholder and holds a BCom from Bombay University.
Cho-Yu Kooi, CFASenior Fund Manager25 years industry experience, joined JOHCM in May 2011Cho-Yu is Senior Fund Manager of the JOHCM Asia ex Japan Small and Mid Cap Strategy. Prior to joining JOHCM, Cho-Yu was a PortfolioManager at Silver Metis Capital Management Pte Ltd. She previously worked at Lloyd George Management from 2001 to 2008 as a PortfolioManager, where she managed the Lloyd George Asian Smaller Companies Fund, the Siam Recovery Fund and several institutional accountsvalued at over US$1bn at the peak. She had also worked at UBS and DBS Asset Management for close to eight years. Cho-Yu is a CFACharterholder and graduated from the London School of Economics with first class BSc (Hons) in Economics.
33
THIS DOCUMENT IS FOR PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS ONLY.
J O Hambro Capital Management Limited . Registered in England No:2176004. Authorised & regulated by the UK Financial ConductAuthority. Registered office: Ground Floor, Ryder Court, 14 Ryder Street, London SW1Y 6QB, United Kingdom.
The registered mark J O Hambro® is owned by Barnham Broom Holdings and is used under licence. JOHCM® is a registered trademarkof J O Hambro Capital Management Limited.
The information in this document does not constitute, or form part of, any offer to sell or issue, or any solicitation of an offer to purchaseor subscribe for the proposed Funds described in this document; nor shall this document, or any part of it, or the fact of its distributionform the basis of, or be relied on, in connection with any contract. Recipients of this document who intend to subscribe to any of theproposed Funds are reminded that any such purchase may only be made solely on the basis of the information contained in the finalprospectus, which may be different from the information contained in this document. No reliance may be placed for any purposewhatsoever on the information contained in this document or on the completeness, accuracy or fairness thereof.
No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made or given by or on behalf of the Firm or its partners or any other person as tothe accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information or opinions contained in this document, and no responsibility or liability isaccepted for any such information or opinions (but so that nothing in this paragraph shall exclude liability for any representation orwarranty made fraudulently).
The distribution of this document in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law; therefore, persons into whose possession thisdocument comes should inform themselves about and observe any such restrictions. Any such distribution could result in a violation ofthe law of such jurisdictions.
The information contained in this presentation has been verified by the firm. It is possible that, from time to time, the fund managermay choose to vary self imposed guidelines contained in this presentation in which case some statements may no longer remain valid.We recommend that prospective investors request confirmation of such changes prior to investment. Notwithstanding, all investmentrestrictions contained in specific fund documentation such as prospectuses, supplements or placement memoranda or addenda theretomay be relied upon.
Disclaimer
Investments fluctuate in value and may fall as well as rise and that investors may not get back the value of their original investment.Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Investors should note that there may be no recognised market for investments selected by the Investment Manager and it may,therefore, be difficult to deal in the investments or to obtain reliable information about their value or the extent of the risks to whichthey are exposed.
The Investment Manager may undertake investments on behalf of the Fund in countries other than the investors’ owndomicile. Investors should also note that changes in rates of exchange may cause the value of investments to go up or down.
Turnover is calculated with reference to both buy and sell side. We do this because the funds have daily cash flows and using a standarddefinition of turnover where both buys and sells are added together would not give a true reflection of the portfolio’s turnover. We lookat both buy and sell side separately. On both the buy and sell side we will adjust for cash flows and so the amounts being added are atrue reflection of the managers trading. A figure of 50% for turnover would indicate a roughly 2 year holding period for most positions.This is quite a long time scale and is one of the lower figures in house.
Sources for all data: JOHCM (unless otherwise stated).
The information contained herein including any expression of opinion is for information purposes only and is given on the understandingthat it is not a recommendation.
Information on how JOHCM handles personal data which it receives can be found in the JOHCM Privacy Statement on itswebsite: www.johcm.com
Disclaimer
JOHCMEuropeanSelectValuesJOHCMEuropeanConcentratedValueValuehasdifferentfaces
LuisFananasFundManager
JOHambroCapitalManagement– AnnualSingaporeInvestorDay2018 www.johcm.com
FORPROFESSIONALINVESTORSONLY
2
Our bottom-up investment process combines an absolute value discipline with a preference for companies that generate
sustainable, superior economic returns
Robrecht Wouters – Senior Fund ManagerJOHCM European Select Values
JOHCM European Concentrated Value
3
The team
Robrecht WoutersSenior Fund Manager28 years industry experience, joined JOHCM in September 2003. Lead manager since September 2008Robrecht is Senior Fund Manager of the JOHCM European Select Values Strategy and JOHCM European Concentrated ValueStrategy. Prior to joining JOHCM, Robrecht worked as an Investment Analyst at Lansdowne Partners. From 1997 until 2001,Robrecht worked as a Sell-Side Analyst, focusing on European media and then global software. He started his career as an EquityAnalyst in 1990 in Belgium and moved to London in 1995 to join the Dutch Equity Research team at Smith New Court Europe(now Merrill Lynch). Robrecht holds a Master’s Degree in Applied Economics from the University of Leuven in Belgium.
Luis Fañanas Fund Manager23 years industry experience, joined JOHCM in March 2015Luis is Fund Manager for the JOHCM European Select Values Strategy and JOHCM Concentrated Value Strategy. He joins JOHCMfrom T Rowe Price International where he was a Senior Buy-Side Analyst and member of the Investment Committee for theGlobal Small-Mid Cap team, with a main focus on Europe. From April 2004 to July 2012, Luis was a Sell-Side Equity Analyst atDeutsche Bank in Madrid and later London; becoming a Research Director for the European Small Caps Strategist in 2010. Beforethat, Luis worked in Madrid with Julius Baer (now Kepler Equities) as an Equity Analyst. Other notable employers are MorganStanley and Arthur Andersen (now Deloitte). Luis holds a B.A. in Economics and Business Administration, specialising in Financeand Actuary from Complutense University, Madrid. He is a native Spanish speaker, fluent English and basic French.
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual Since Inception
Since Sep 2008
JOHCM European Select Values A € 2003 - - - - -0.50 8.54 3.33 9.59 -2.94 5.81 -1.11 1.21 25.70 -Benchmark 2003 - - - - -1.29 5.18 1.24 4.42 -3.41 4.98 1.40 2.86 16.08 -JOHCM European Select Values A € 2004 6.76 5.89 -3.45 1.31 -2.23 3.09 -4.21 -2.16 1.45 1.13 4.23 2.21 14.16 -Benchmark 2004 3.61 2.81 -2.28 1.54 -0.71 2.24 -2.48 0.54 1.72 0.41 2.75 1.58 12.16 -JOHCM European Select Values A € 2005 3.83 4.03 -0.52 -2.14 4.24 4.58 4.86 0.12 2.90 -6.08 6.95 5.43 31.15 -Benchmark 2005 2.09 3.58 -0.36 -1.95 5.21 3.50 3.58 -0.57 4.72 -3.06 4.36 2.93 26.34 -JOHCM European Select Values A € 2006 6.00 3.56 2.08 2.04 -5.67 -0.34 0.94 2.30 4.16 3.58 0.44 3.49 24.50 -Benchmark 2006 3.65 2.95 1.36 0.92 -4.95 1.05 2.50 2.81 2.10 3.41 0.09 2.73 19.96 -JOHCM European Select Values A € 2007 5.34 -1.50 3.66 3.61 3.29 1.00 -4.19 -2.45 -0.47 -0.08 -4.30 0.62 4.05 -Benchmark 2007 2.21 -1.33 1.55 4.62 3.36 -1.08 -2.93 -0.74 1.30 2.98 -4.00 -1.17 4.48 -JOHCM European Select Values A € 2008 -11.69 -3.53 -5.97 2.46 -0.25 -13.51 -5.75 4.92 -8.85 -13.09 -6.60 -0.72 -48.57 -Benchmark 2008 -13.01 0.91 -4.27 5.98 2.21 -10.87 -0.22 1.22 -12.11 -14.67 -4.48 -1.83 -42.38 -JOHCM European Select Values A € 2009 -0.49 -6.09 3.72 16.93 4.94 1.66 9.61 6.18 4.05 1.98 -0.63 6.71 58.34 -Benchmark 2009 -4.06 -9.73 1.06 16.43 5.34 -0.69 8.33 5.62 2.80 -0.88 -0.68 5.88 30.71 -JOHCM European Select Values A € 2010 -0.46 1.05 8.79 -0.12 -4.19 1.13 1.42 -1.46 5.75 3.39 1.87 7.33 26.52 -Benchmark 2010 -3.28 -0.50 8.27 -0.77 -4.70 -0.32 4.25 -2.27 4.84 1.89 -0.79 4.82 11.17 -JOHCM European Select Values A € 2011 -1.19 2.78 -0.56 2.67 2.50 -3.46 -3.23 -8.60 -2.74 7.86 -4.19 3.29 -5.80 -Benchmark 2011 1.54 2.32 -2.55 2.85 0.29 -3.71 -1.73 -11.49 -3.51 9.79 -4.67 4.12 -8.02 -JOHCM European Select Values A € 2012 4.16 4.04 1.58 -0.86 -4.82 2.51 5.10 1.58 1.70 0.96 1.52 1.92 20.77 -Benchmark 2012 4.64 4.23 -0.65 -1.07 -5.46 3.54 5.87 1.68 1.17 0.90 1.96 0.81 18.53 -JOHCM European Select Values A € 2013 3.68 3.14 3.79 -0.67 1.98 -2.77 6.90 0.64 2.65 2.78 1.16 0.96 26.73 -Benchmark 2013 2.98 0.52 2.22 1.65 1.93 -5.25 4.83 0.11 3.72 3.68 1.45 0.80 19.89 -JOHCM European Select Values A € 2014 -2.94 4.05 1.47 0.83 3.62 -0.93 -1.57 2.06 -0.49 -2.31 5.19 0.48 9.47 -Benchmark 2014 -2.83 5.34 -0.17 1.76 2.66 -0.60 -0.90 1.35 0.42 -2.01 3.03 -1.20 6.75 -JOHCM European Select Values A € 2015 6.16 6.25 2.94 0.32 3.38 -6.16 3.09 -8.28 -1.57 7.45 3.88 -3.96 12.73 -Benchmark 2015 7.82 6.09 2.32 -0.17 2.72 -5.06 2.90 -8.20 -4.44 8.06 3.01 -5.07 8.68 -JOHCM European Select Values A € 2016 -4.91 1.06 2.47 0.93 1.90 -3.25 3.89 1.20 -1.15 -1.17 -0.64 5.43 5.43 -Benchmark 2016 -7.85 -1.73 2.70 2.48 1.80 -5.50 4.11 1.62 -1.57 0.29 0.97 5.16 1.68 -JOHCM European Select Values A € 2017 1.26 2.67 3.55 3.16 0.68 -1.01 -1.63 -1.60 3.17 1.76 -1.55 0.13 10.88 -Benchmark 2017 0.93 2.09 3.01 2.21 1.80 -1.92 -0.86 -1.25 3.60 2.21 -1.10 -0.23 10.81 -JOHCM European Select Values A € 2018 1.22 -3.64 -2.99 0.98 1.89 -2.31 2.17 0.33 1.01 - - - -1.54 414.39 201.34Benchmark 2018 1.91 -3.83 -2.32 4.54 1.06 -1.42 3.11 -2.09 0.47 - - - 1.13 198.28 76.57Annualised ReturnJOHCM European Select Values A € 11.22 11.56Benchmark 7.35 5.80
4
JOHCM European Select Values performance since inception*
Source: JOHCM/MSCI Barra/Bloomberg, NAV of Share Class A in EUR, net income reinvested, net of fees, as at 30 September 2018. The A EUR Class was launched on *7 May 2003. Benchmark: Benchmark: MSCI Europe Composite Index. During the period 7 May 2003 to 31 December 2012 the Fund was benchmarked against the FTSE Eurofirst 300 TR Index. For the period 1 January 2013 to present the fund is benchmark against the MSCI Europe NR Index (12pm adjusted). Performance of other share classes may vary and is available on request.
Fund Volatility 15.44
Tracking Error 6.14
Alpha (weekly) 0.09
Beta 0.87
Index Volatility 16.50
Information Ratio 0.63
Alpha (annualised) 4.52
1 year to 30 Sep 18 -1.23
1 year to 30 Sep 17 14.43
1 year to 30 Sep 16 9.15
1 year to 30 Sep 15 8.58
1 year to 30 Sep 14 11.30
Five year discrete performance (%)
Past performance is not a guide to future performance
Net performance since inception* (EUR) as at 30 September 2018
5
JOHCM European Concentrated Value
Source: JOHCM/MSCI Barra/Bloomberg. NAV of share class A in EUR, net income reinvested, net of fees, as at 30 September 2018. All fund performance has been shown against the MSCI Europe NR Index (12pm adjusted). *Inception date: 31 March 2015.
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec AnnualSince
Inception*
Annualised(SI)*
JOHCM European Concentrated Values Fund 2015 - - - -0.60 3.32 -5.26 2.36 -9.34 -1.66 8.90 3.10 -4.21 -4.50 - -
Benchmark 2015 - - - -0.17 2.72 -5.06 2.90 -8.20 -4.44 8.06 3.01 -5.07 -7.14 - -
JOHCM European Concentrated Values Fund 2016 -4.92 0.33 3.07 0.11 2.02 -2.71 3.97 0.41 -1.33 -1.46 -0.53 3.40 1.99 - -
Benchmark 2016 -7.85 -1.73 2.70 2.48 1.80 -5.50 4.11 1.62 -1.57 0.29 0.97 5.16 1.68 - -
JOHCM European Concentrated Values Fund 2017 1.35 3.65 3.03 2.37 1.39 -0.64-
1.47 -1.21 2.93 1.84 -0.63 -0.27 12.87 - -
Benchmark 2017 0.93 2.09 3.01 2.21 1.80 -1.92-
0.86 -1.25 3.60 2.21 -1.10 -0.23 10.81 - -
JOHCM European Concentrated Values Fund 2018 1.47 -3.60 -2.52 1.63 2.36 -1.10 2.05 0.46 0.91 - - - 1.47 11.54 3.17
Benchmark 2018 1.91 -3.83 -2.32 4.54 1.06 -1.42 3.11 -2.09 0.47 - - - 1.13 5.81 1.63
Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
1 year to 30 Sep 18 2.40
1 year to 30 Sep 17 13.35
1 year to 30 Sep 16 8.22
1 year to 30 Sep 15 n/a
1 year to 30 Sep 14 n/a
Five year discrete performance (%)
6
Investment strategy
JOHCM European Select Values Fund invest in 30 to 50 European companies that trade at a significant discount (>25%) to their ‘intrinsic
value’ (and an even larger ‘margin of safety’ for smaller caps)
JOHCM European Concentrated Value Fund invest in approx. 25 European large cap companies that trade at a significant discount (>25%) to their
‘intrinsic value’
7
“Value is absolute”
“Value” is determined by your required return
What is “value”?
Source: JOHCM.
Risk-free cash flow perpetuity
0
50
100
150
200
Time
FCF£m
∞
NPV= 100r1
‘Business’ cash flow perpetuity without growth investments
(i.e. only maintenance investments)
0
50
100
150
200
Time ∞
FCF£m
NPV= 100r2
‘Business’ cash flow perpetuity with growth investments
0
50
100
150
200
Time ∞
FCF£m
NPV= 50r2-g
A B C
8
ROCE determines the slope of cash flow annuity
Reinvestment returns determine future cash flow and value
Source: JOHCM. Note: assumption is that existing business does not grow and only CAPEX>depreciation is reinvested at respective return rates.
Short term cash-flow multiples can be very misleading
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
£m o
f FC
F
A. ROCE 5% B. ROCE 10% C. ROCE 15% D. ROCE 25%
A
B
C
D
ROCE < WACC
ROCE = WACC
ROCE > WACC
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
9
Not all free cash flow is worth the same!
Source: JOHCM. Assumption: WACC = Cost of equity = 9%. long term g = f (ROCE - WACC).
Companies with high return investment opportunities are more valuable
VA
LUA
TIO
N
QUALITY
Pres
ent
valu
e /
earn
ings
Net tangible ROIC
A B C D
23x is fair!
7x is fair!
Assumption: Cost of equity = 9%, sustained returns determine g (growth).
EXPENSIVE!
CHEAP!
10
To understand valuation, it is critical to distinguish recurring cash flow capacity vs. discretionary expenses
Not all free cash flow is worth the same!
Source: JOHCM.
Is there absolute value?
Is there value creation?
Existing cash flow capacity– “Maintenance investments” to sustain existing cash flow capacity
=‘zero-growth’ free cash flow
=‘zero-growth’ free cash flow– “Growth investments” / acquisitions
=Reported free cash flow
Shareholder remuneration
Dividend Share buybacks
Value neutral Value creation if purchaseprices < intrinsic value
We value companies on existing cash flow capacity and reinvestment opportunities, not on reported earnings or reported free cash flow
11
From a “typical” broker…
Valuation multiples are often misleading
Source: A broker August 2017.
A
12
Case study: Heineken – less reported free cashflow means more value!
Not all free cash flow is worth the same!
Source: Heineken/JOHCM as at June 2018.
EURm 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E
Net profit 2,141 1,739 2,153 2,465 2,699
Depreciation 1,594 1,817 1,587 1,698 1,798
Working capital 371 80 69
Provisions -165 -73 -125
Other adjustments -452 155 198
Cash flow from operations 3,489 3,718 3,882 4,163 4,497
Capital expenditures -1,638 -1,757 -1,696 -2,045 -1,977
Maintenance investments -579 -587 -618 -645 -677
Growth investments -1,059 -1,170 -1,078 -1,400 -1,300
Reported free cash flow 1,851 1,961 2,186 2,118 2,520
FCF before growth investments 2,910 3,131 3,264 3,518 3,820
FCF per share 3.23 3.44 3.83 3.71 4.42
FCF per share before growth investments 5.08 5.49 5.72 6.17 6.69
Heineken Holding share price 83.65 83.65 83.65 83.65 83.65
P/FCF 25.9x 24.3x 21.8x 22.5x 18.9x
Reported FCF yield 4.1% 4.6% 4.4% 5.3%
P/FCF before growth investments 16.5x 15.2x 14.6x 13.6x 12.5x
Equity FCF yield 6.6% 6.8% 7.4% 8.0%
Cash flow statement Capital expenditure
EURm 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
EBITDA 3,355 3,385 3,716 4,018 4,200 4,537 4,713 4,931
Growth capex as % EBITDA 7% 10% 15% 17% 22% 23% 25% 22%
Tangible after-tax ROCE 25.6% 25.2% 28.8% 28.6% 27.2% 29.8% 31.3% 27.7%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Growth Capex Maintenance Capex
IRR > WACC
FA
B
CD
E
13
Quality Value: Heineken – with IRRs above 25%, more reinvestments means less reported free cashflow, yet more intrinsic value!
Not all free cash flow is worth the same!
Source: Heineken/JOHCM as at 24 February 2016.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Pres
ent
valu
e /
earn
ings
Net tangible ROIC
VA
LUA
TIO
N
QUALITY
Heineken
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
14
Portfolio is a blend of ‘quality’ and ‘classic value’ opportunities
“Intrinsic value is two-dimensional!”
Source: JOHCM as at April 2017.1 Growth capex included in FCF.2 Adjusted for net cash and tax assets.3 Operating assets only 55% of total capital employed.
Net tangible ROIC
VA
LUA
TIO
N
QUALITY
HEIO
LBTYMEO
WKL1
SBMO
ORCL1,2BN
NOKIA2
GRFVIV3
Pres
ent
valu
e /
FCF
2017
15
Portfolio is a blend of ‘quality’ and ‘classic value’ opportunities
“Intrinsic value is two-dimensional!”
Source: Heineken/JOHCM as at 24 February 2016.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Pres
ent
valu
e /
earn
ings
Net tangible ROIC
VA
LUA
TIO
N
QUALITY
Classic value“average companies at
great prices”
Quality value“great companies at average
prices”Heineken
16
Portfolio structure: top 10 equity holdings
Source: JOHCM/Bloomberg as at 30 September 2018.
SecurityName
Port-folio(%)
Sector Country Share Price
Fair Value
Upside%
1 Metro (C) 5.43 Consumer Staples Germany 13.5 22 63.2
2 Liberty Global (C) 4.86 Telecommunication Services Britain 28.16 59 109.6
3 Rolls Royce (Q) 4.43 Industrials Britain 987.4 1,742 76.4
4 Oracle (Q) 4.3 Information Technology United States 51.56 67 30.6
5 SBM (C) 4.18 Energy Netherlands 15.59 24 52.7
6 Danone (Q) 4.11 Consumer Staples France 66.7 90 35.1
7 Thyssen Krupp* (C) 4.05 Materials Germany 21.74 40 84.3
8 Nokia (C) 3.87 Information Technology Finland 4.78 7 49.3
9 Vivendi* (C) 3.56 Consumer Discretionary France 22.17 27 22.2
10 Wolters Kluwer (Q) 3.29 Industrials Netherlands 53.68 60 12.2
JOHCM European Select Values
European Select Values Fund +53.5%
JOHCM European Concentrated Value
SecurityName
Port-folio (%)
Sector Country Share Price
Fair Value
Upside%
1 Rolls Royce (Q) 5.77 Industrials Britain 983.6 1,742 77.1
2 Liberty Global (C) 5.72 Telecommunication Services Britain 27.61 59 113.8
3 Oracle (Q) 5.64 Information Technology United States 51.8 67 30
4 Danone (Q) 5.49 Consumer Staples France 68.11 90 32.3
5 Nokia (C) 5.16 Information Technology Finland 4.82 7 48.1
6 Metro (C) 5.11 Consumer Staples Germany 13.52 22 62.9
7 Wolters Kluwer (Q) 4.89 Industrials Netherlands 53.86 60 11.8
8 Vivendi* (C) 4.59 Consumer Discretionary France 22.15 27 22.3
9 JC Decaux (C) 4.51 Consumer Discretionary France 31.22 48 52.2
10 SAP (Q) 4.44 Information Technology Germany 106.68 126 18.6
European Concentrated Value Fund +39.5%
Fundamental undervaluation!(C) = Classic Value(Q) = Quality Value* = Special Situation
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Dec 09 Feb 11 Apr 12 Jun 13 Aug 14 Oct 15 Nov 16 Jan 18
ESV classic value % ESV quality value %ECV classic value % ECV quality value %
Special situations
17
Classic and quality value opportunities, special situations
Source: JOHCM as at 30 September 2018. 1JOHCM European Select Values. 2JOHCM European Concentrated Value as at 30 September 2018.
Special situations as a %‘Quality’ vs. ‘classic value’ as % of ESV1 and ECV2
17.7%
A
B 15.5%
ESV1 ECV2
Market prices determine the relative weight of ‘quality’ vs. ‘classic’ value
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Feb 10 Jul 11 Dec 12 May 14 Oct 15 Mar 17 Aug 18
JOHCM European Select Values Upside % to IV JOHCM European Concentrated Value Upside % to IV
18
JOHCM European Select Values / European Concentrated Value
Source: JOHCM/Bloomberg as at 30 September 2018.
Historic upside % to intrinsic value
+53.5%
+39.5%
Over this period – MSCI EU +55% (in EUR)
19
Investment process
• Critical to undertake our own financial and valuation models
› One consistent valuation framework across sectors and countries
› Company specific risks and valuation implications
• Buy and sell decisions are straightforward – no model portfolio, no committee
”What we can’t confidently analyse, we can’t value. What we can’t confidently value, we ignore.
20
Bottom-up value discipline steers portfolio exposure
Portfolio structure
Source: JOHCM. *Companies defined with market cap <EUR 5bn.
• All cap
• 30-50 positions
• Position sizes of 1.5-5% (small caps no more than 1.5-1.75% at purchase)
• No sector or country constraints
• Meaningful exposure to mid and small caps*
• Large cap
• Typically 25 positions
• Position sizes of 2-6%
• No sector or country constraints
European Select Values Fund European Concentrated Value Fund
21
Strategy leads to structural sector biases
Portfolio structure
Source: Compustat. McKinsey Corporate Performance Centre analysis. Portfolio data shown as at 30 September 2018. Benchmark: MSCI Europe NR Index (12pm adjusted). Top and bottom three sector weights.
Structural overweight to Consumer Discretionary, Technology & Consumer Staples. Financials, Utilities and Commodities are a cost of capital business.
European Concentrated ValueFund
Weight %Index
Weight %Relative
Weight %
Consumer Staples 25.46 13.35 12.10
Information Technology 15.11 5.61 9.51
Consumer Discretionary 16.94 10.60 6.34
Health Care 9.35 13.09 -3.74
Energy 2.82 8.56 -5.73
Financials 0.00 19.12 -19.12
Overweight
Underweight
European Select ValuesFund
Weight %Index
Weight %Relative
Weight %
Consumer Discretionary 23.35 10.60 12.75
Materials 14.25 8.39 5.86
Information Technology 11.32 5.61 5.71
Telecommunications 0.00 3.18 -3.18
Utilities 0.00 3.57 -3.57
Financials 0.00 19.12 -19.12
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Aug 15 Aug 16 Aug 17 Aug 18
Large Cap Mid Cap Small Cap
22
23 May 2008 – 30 September 2018
JOHCM European Select Values meaningful exposure to mid and small cap
Source: JOHCM/Bloomberg as at 30 September 2018. JOHCM European Select Values (ESV). Market cap split – small below EUR 2bn and large above EUR 5bn. Excludes cash of 2.49% (0.14% of derivatives).
Average market cap: EUR 24.3bn
15.11
57.09
25.31
Occasional index put option strategy to reduce absolute risk of small caps exposure
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Aug 08 May 09 Mar 10 Dec 10 Oct 11 Jul 12 May 13 Feb 14 Dec 14 Oct 15 Jul 16 May 17 Feb 18
Rela
tive
Perf
orm
ance
%
Small Mid Large
23
Relative performance contribution by market cap from 31 July 2008 to 31 August 2018
JOHCM European Select Values Fund
Source: JOHCM/Bloomberg as at 31 August 2018. JOHCM European Select Values Fund. Annualised. Benchmark: MSCI Europe NR Index. Market cap split – small below EUR 2bn and large above EUR 5bn.
INs OUTsOctober 2015 Acerinox Smith & NephewNovember 2015 - -December 2015 - -January 2016 - -February 2016 Royal Dutch (BG Group swap) Schindler, BG Group (bid/swap)March 2016 - -April 2016 Lab.Farm.ROVI -May 2016 Konecranes -June 2016 Coats, Vivendi, Bayer BAT, QSCJuly 2016 - -August 2016 SFR -September 2016 - SyngentaOctober 2016 - -November 2016 - -December 2016 Mediaset (stub) Mediaset (stub)January 2017 - -February 2017 Metro AG Swedish Match, AgeasMarch 2017 BORR Drilling ForboApril 2017 - -May 2017 - -June 2017 Solocal -July 2017 - BekaertAugust 2017 - -September 2017 - SFROctober 2017 - -November 2017 - -December 2017 Aryzta -January 2018 - -February 2018 - -March 2018 Reckitt Benckiser RELX, Pernod RicardApril 2018 - -May 2018 - -June 2018 Oerlikon -July 2018 Telenet -August 2018 - -September 2018 - Coats
24
Portfolio buy/sell decisions and turnover
Source: JOHCM/Bloomberg. Rolling 12 month average turnover, lesser of buys and sells from 31 August 2009 to 30 September 2018. Stocks in red circles sold because of an M&A event.
JOHCM European Select Values Value turnover (12 months rolling)
JOHCM European Select Values Positions turnover
JOHCM European Concentrated Values Positions turnover INs OUTs
February 2017 Metro AG Swedish Match March 2017 - -April 2017 - -May 2017 - -June 2017 - -July 2017 - -August 2017 - -September 2017 - SFROctober 2017 - -November 2017 - -December 2017 - -January 2018 - -February 2018 - -March 2018 Reckitt Benckiser CeconomyApril 2018 - -May 2018 - -June 2018 - -July 2018 - -August 2018 - -September 2018 - -
0
20
40
60
80
100
Aug 09 Dec 10 Mar 12 Jun 13 Oct 14 Jan 16 Apr 17 Aug 18
25
Holding period and cumulative attribution
Current portfolio
Source: JOHCM/Inalytics as at 30 September 2018. This chart displays a scatter chart of current holdings plotting the number of months they have been held within the Portfolio against the attribution returned since the position was opened. The maximum holding period is 125 months, the total time period since 1 September 2008 when Robbie Wouters took over management of the fund.
Attr
ibut
ion
sinc
e he
ld (
bps)
Months in portfolio
Wolters Kluwer
Heineken
Henkel ASM
SAP
Wartsila
SligroALK Corbion Burckhardt Akzo Nobel
VivendiKonecranes
Biotest Danone AcerinoxSanofiImerys
Laboratorios Farmaceuticos Thyssenkrupp BayerSolacalOC Oerlikon
Questerre
D'ieteren Pearson
Metro Wholesale & FoodTechnicolorCeconomy
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Abengoa Ageas
Agresso
AllianzAXA
Beiersdorf
Bekaert
British American TobaccoCIE Coats
Coloplast
Delhaize
Etam
Forbo
Freenet
HeinekenHellenic Huaboa
Imperial Brands
ING Julius Baer
Kabel Deutschland
Kinepolis
NestleNovartis
Paddy Power Pernod Ricard
Petroleum Geo
Premier Foods
QSC
Raven Russia
RELXRemy Cointreau
Rio TintoSchindler
Seabird Exploration
Smith & Nephew
Swedish Match
Symrise
Syngenta
Telenet
Temenos
Umicore
Virgin Media
Wavecom
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
26
Holding period and cumulative attribution
Closed positions since 1 September 2008
Source: JOHCM/ Inalytics as at 30 September 2018. This chart displays a scatter chart of closed holdings plotting the number of months they have been held within the Portfolio against the attribution returned since the position was opened.
Attr
ibut
ion
sinc
e he
ld (
bps)
Months in portfolio
Mecom
2018 investmentsJOHCM European Select ValuesJOHCM European Concentrated Value
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct 16 Oct 17 Oct 18
Pric
e EU
R
28
Classic value: Telenet*
Source: JOHCM/ FactSet financial data and analytics as at 9 October 2018. *All comments are as at time of purchase. **Since purchase in July 2018 capital reduction of EUR 630m.
• Number 2 Belgian telecom (cable) operator, Mkt cap EUR4.7bn**
• Share price weakness: uncertainty surrounding regulatory changes (fixed line wholesale tariffs and 4th mobile entrant framework) and slowing revenue growth
• Capital expenditures are near peak in order to deliver converged quadruple telecommunication, reducing reported free cash flow yield to below 6%. Normalised 2018 FCF yield is over 10%
• By mid-2019 ‘normalised’ FCF yield will be visible to the ‘naked’ when convergence investments are completed. FCF yield rises to above 12% in 2020
• Telenet is undervalued by 45%+. Market value of Telenet’s 43% free float matches the company’s 2018-2020 cumulative equity free cash flow…. And ‘rational’ majority owner Liberty Global (controls 57%) will soon be underleveraged as well
Telenet price history
BoughtBought
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jul 16 Nov 16 Mar 17 Jul 17 Nov 17 Mar 18 Jul 18
28
Cyclical, quality value: Oerlikon*
Source: JOHCM/ FactSet financial data and analytics as at 10 July 2018. *All comments are as at time of purchase.
• Swiss industrial conglomerate (Mkt Cap CHF5.1bn), world leading in Surface Technologies, Manmade Fibersand Drive Systems
• Core activity: Surface Solutions. Global leader with 20% m.s. in metal surfacing technologies, products and services. Sales of CHF1.4bn growing at mid-single digit % and generating 20% + EBITDA margins
• High tangible investment returns and plenty of high return opportunities to invest: 3D metal printing opportunity is significant and can lift Surface Solutions’ organic growth to 10%+ over the next decade
• Net cash (CHF0.5bn) and disposal of non-core activities (Drive Systems estimated at CHF0.5bn and Manmade Fibers potentially CHF1bn) create significant optionality
• Adjusted for net cash, 15x mid-cycle free cash flow (excluding growth investments). Undervalued by at least 30%+, excl. reinvestment returns of cash and disposal proceeds
Oerlikon price history
BoughtBought
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
Mar 13 Jan 14 Nov 14 Sep 15 Jul 16 May 17 Mar 18
Pric
e EU
R
29
Quality value: Reckitt Benckiser*
Source: JOHCM/ FactSet financial data and analytics as at 29 March 2018. *All comments are as at time of purchase.
• Global leading player in fast growing consumer good categories of health, hygiene and home care: Mkt Cap GBP40.0bn
• 2017: big, expensive M&A (US$18bn Mead Johnson acquisition) and growth slowdown of the core trigger correction from high valuation in mid-2017 when 21x 2018 PE
• Today: operational headwinds subsiding and share price down. Entering ‘value’ territory on 14x normalised FCF, given the ‘quality’ characteristics (High ROCE)
• +30% upside to intrinsic value: not outrageously cheap (i.e. not ‘Deep Value’) but a good starting point for ‘Quality Value’ name
Reckitt Benckiser price history
BoughtBought
30
A long-term, fundamental, bottom-up strategy
JOHCM European Select Values/ European Concentrated Value strategies
Relative index risk Absolute value
Diversification Concentration
Consensus Contrarian
Timing Time
Portfolio structure focus Company focus
31
Conclusion – ESV/ECV
But, short-term, prices are dictated by liquidity and psychology
Companies in the highest bands by expected sales growths have re-rated…
Source: Datastream, I/B/E/S, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
…and now trade on their highest premiumto low growth stocks since 2000
32
If markets ignore the fundamental value of a company, someone will take ‘action’
Fundamental value matters!
Source: JOHCM. 1% of weight before announcement. *Large cap. 2Due to rounding data may not add up to total amount.
• Since September 2008, in ESV:
› 26%1 of our investments have been taken out or absorbed by M&A› Wavecom, Etam, Synthes*, Hamworthy, Virgin Media*,Kabel Deutschland*,
Unit4, TNT Express, BG Group*, Syngenta*, SFR*
› 10%1 of our investments formally rejected takeover approaches › Wartsila*, Heineken*, Akzo Nobel*
› 3% transaction blocked, or on-going corporate action› Mediaset, Biotest
ECV: 9 of 16 events related to large cap stocks
∑ = 38%2
Q3 2017!
2017
2017
Appendix
34
Stock attribution – YTD 2018
Source: JOHCM/MSCI Barra. Figures are at end of day and calculated gross of fees on an arithmetic basis. Please note that all performance is shown against the MSCI ACWI NR Index. Data from 31 December 2017 to 30 September 2018.
Bottom five contributors Top five contributors
Rank Stock Relative Return Contribution % Sector
1 Nokia 0.79 Information Technology
2 Wolters Kluwer 0.75 Industrials
3 Oracle 0.61 Information Technology
4 ALK 0.54 Health Care
5 Rolls Royce 0.53 Industrials
Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance
Rank Stock Relative Return Contribution % Sector
1 Ceconomy -1.59 Consumer Discretionary
2 Technicolour -1.33 Consumer Discretionary
3 Aryzta -1.20 Consumer Stapes
4 Liberty Global -0.73 Consumer Discretionary
5 Metro Wholesale & Foods -0.65 Consumer Stapes
JOHCM European Select Values Fund
JOHCM European Concentrated Value Fund
Rank Stock Relative Return Contribution % Sector
1 Nokia 1.13 Information Technology
2 Wolters Kluwer 1.01 Industrials
3 Rolls Royce 0.79 Industrials
4 Reckitt Benckiser 0.76 Consumer Staples
5 Oracle 0.67 Information Technology
Top five contributors Bottom five contributors
Rank Stock Relative Return Contribution % Sector
1 Metro Wholesale & Foods -1.00 Consumer Staples
2 Liberty Global -0.86 Consumer Discretionary
3 Imerys -0.56 Materials
4 Bayer -0.51 Health Care
5 Thyssen Krupp -0.49 Materials
2017 investmentsJOHCM European Select ValuesJOHCM European Concentrated Value
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Dec 16 Mar 17 Jun 17 Sep 17 Dec 17
Pric
e EU
R
36
Classic Value, Special Situation: Metro AG*
Source: JOHCM/ FactSet financial data and analytics as at 29 January 2018. *All comments are as at time of purchase.
• EUR 10bn multinational retail and wholesale conglomerate with 70% of FCF from defensive food wholesale activities.
• 10.5x group free cash flow (excl. growth investments) is an attractive entry point.
• Strong asset backing: Metro owns half of its footprint with an historic cost of EUR9.8bn.
• Imminent break-up into two listed companies: a world leading food wholesaler (cash & carry and food services) and the world nr 2 consumer electronics retailer.
• Hence, better valuation transparency, increased financial focus and better capital allocation.
• +45% upside to Intrinsic Value; 'low beta' food wholesale company (Metro WFS) accounts for 75% of Metro AG’s intrinsic value.
Metro AG split in to Ceconomy and Metro Food Wholesale
BoughtBought
ReduceReduce
14
16
18
20
Dec 16 Mar 17 Jun 17 Sep 17 Dec 17
Pric
e EU
R
Spin offSpin off
Bought moreBought moreBought moreBought more
25
27
29
31
33
35
37
39
Dec 16 Feb 17 Apr 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Sep 17 Nov 17 Jan 18
Pric
e EU
R
37
Classic Value: BORR Drilling*
Source: JOHCM/ FactSet financial data and analytics as at 29 January 2018. *All comments are as at time of purchase.
• Market cap of US$ 1.2bn (OTC-listed, full listing in 2017), net cash
• Buying idle, young efficient premium jack-up oil rigs from distressed sellers, at half the new build cost
• At day rates where competitors are cash break-even, Borr Drilling would be profitable and generate returns of 25%+
• Experienced management with a contrarian value strategy: “buy low, sell high”
• With conservative financial strategy timing is less relevant for a patient investor
• Intrinsic value > +150% above current market value
BORR Drilling history
Bought more
Bought more
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
Jul 16 Sep 16 Nov 16 Feb 17 Apr 17 Jun 17 Aug 17 Nov 17 Jan 18
Pric
e EU
R
38
Classic Value: Solocal*
Source: JOHCM/ FactSet financial data and analytics as at 29 January 2018. *All comments are as at time of purchase.
• The ‘Yellow Pages’ of France coming out of financial restructuring with recapitalisation in March 2017 (rights issue and debt for equity swap): market cap EUR725m
• 80% of group EBITDA of EUR215m now derived from growing Internet revenues, stabilisation of cash flow
• Digital customer base (23% of all French small business) is slowly eroding but trends are improving
• Value proposition of Solocal’s digital platform increases as Solocal manages not just static customer information but also transacts customer bookings and orders
• Free cash flow multiple of 8.9x, Solocal is undervalued by at least +60%. And even by +150%, if 2% to 3% long term growth can be sustained
Solocal price history
BoughtBought
Bought more
Bought more
Bought more
Bought more
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Dec 12 Aug 13 Apr 14 Nov 14 Jul 15 Feb 16 Oct 16 May 17 Jan 18
Pric
e EU
R
39
Classic Value, Special Situation: Aryzta*
Source: JOHCM/ FactSet financial data and analytics as at 29 January 2018. *All comments are as at time of purchase.
• Frozen bakery products market leader: mkt cap of CHF3.1bn or EUR2.7bn, but substantial debt of EUR2.5bn (of which EUR0.8bn perpetual hybrid)
• A defensive industry with strong tangible after tax returns (20% +) and favourable growth characteristics (due to exposure to out-of-home eating trends)
• But Aryzta’s operational and financial performance collapsed: aggressive expansion capex, overvalued acquisitions coincide with profitability collapse
• EBITDA margins declined from 16%+ in 2015 to just above 10% in 2017. New management focusses on restructuring: restore profitability, deleverage and sell non-core assets
• Margin and earnings trough. On ‘normal EBITDA margins of 15%’, upside of +50% as Aryzta would trade on 14% equity free cash flow yield
• Disposals and deleveraging can further enhance equity value (by lowering the cost of equity)
Aryzta price history
BoughtBought
40
Country positions
JOHCM European Select Values – Portfolio characteristics
Source: JOHCM/Bloomberg/MSCI Barra as at 30 September 2018. Benchmark: MSCI Europe NR Index (12pm adjusted). Top and bottom three active country positions.
Fund Weight % Index Weight % Active Weight %
Netherlands 17.93 5.29 12.64
Finland 6.67 1.68 4.99
Germany 18.15 14.90 3.24
Sweden 0.00 4.32 -4.32
Switzerland 4.46 13.07 -8.61
United Kingdom 9.39 27.72 -18.33
Weightings are the result of a bottom-up process
41
Investment rationale
Special situations
• Exploit value opportunities from major capital restructuring announcements such ascompany break-ups, excess capital distribution
• Exploit valuation anomalies that exist between directly related listed stocks through stockinvestments: look for exposure to the undervalued assets of a company by reducingvalue-at-risk of the listed assets of that same company through shorting listed entities
• Other benefits: special situations are often self-help, market neutral
42
JOHCM European Select Values – Managing structural underweight exposures
• Oil› Highly capital intensive, difficult to predict oil price› More likely to have mid-cap oil services exposure› Invest in indirect beneficiaries which fit the European Strategic Values strategy:
e.g. SBM Offshore, Burckhardt Compression, Wartsila…
• Financials› Highly capital intensive, low investment returns› Prefer visible, predictable and low capital intensive companies: e.g. exchanges,
asset managers› Searching for indirect beneficiaries: Wolters Kluwer…
Occasional index call option strategies to reduce a relative risk of structural underweight in the sector
43
JOHCM European Select Values - Derivatives
• Occasional limited usage of index derivatives (options) for portfolio optimisation purpose (no company specific derivatives)
a) Absolute protection of structural exposure to small and mid caps i.e. index put options
b) Relative protection of structural underweight to large sectors in the benchmark i.e. index call options
• Delta exposure of index options limited to 10%
• No leverage: Fund exposure does not exceed 100%, within the limit of UCITS constraints
Thank you
J O Hambro Capital Management Limited . Registered in England No:2176004. Authorised & regulated by the Financial ConductAuthority. Registered office: Ground Floor, Ryder Court, 14 Ryder Street, London SW1Y 6QB.
The registered mark J O Hambro® is owned by Barnham Broom Holdings limited and is used under licence. JOHCM® is a registeredtrademark of J O Hambro Capital Management Limited.The information in this document does not constitute, or form part of, any offer to sell or issue, or any solicitation of an offer to purchaseor subscribe for Funds described in this document; nor shall this document, or any part of it, or the fact of its distribution form the basis of,or be relied on, in connection with any contract.Recipients of this document who intend to subscribe to any of the Funds are reminded that any such purchase may only be made solelyon the basis of the information contained in the final prospectus, which may be different from the information contained in this document.No reliance may be placed for any purpose whatsoever on the information contained in this document or on the completeness, accuracyor fairness thereof.
No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made or given by or on behalf of the Firm or its partners or any other person as tothe accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information or opinions contained in this document, and no responsibility or liability isaccepted for any such information or opinions (but so that nothing in this paragraph shall exclude liability for any representation orwarranty made fraudulently).
The distribution of this document in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law; therefore, persons into whose possession thisdocument comes should inform themselves about and observe any such restrictions. Any such distribution could result in a violation ofthe law of such jurisdictions.
The information contained in this presentation has been verified by the firm. It is possible that, from time to time, the fund manager maychoose to vary self imposed guidelines contained in this presentation in which case some statements may no longer remain valid. Werecommend that prospective investors request confirmation of such changes prior to investment. Notwithstanding, all investmentrestrictions contained in specific fund documentation such as prospectuses, supplements or placement memoranda or addenda theretomay be relied upon.
Investments fluctuate in value and may fall as well as rise and that investors may not get back the value of their original investment.
Disclaimer
THIS DOCUMENT IS FOR PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS ONLY
Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Investors should note that there may be no recognised market for investments selected by the Investment Manager and it may, therefore,be difficult to deal in the investments or to obtain reliable information about their value or the extent of the risks to which they areexposed.
The Investment Manager may undertake investments on behalf of the Fund in countries other than the investors’ own domicile. Investorsshould also note that changes in rates of exchange may cause the value of investments to go up or down.
FE Alpha Manager. Ratings do not constitute investment advice offered by FE and should not be used as the sole basis for making anyinvestment decision. All rights reserved. © 2018 FE.
Information on how JOHCM handles personal data which it receives can be found in the JOHCM Privacy Statement on itswebsite: www.johcm.com
Disclaimer (continued)
THIS DOCUMENT IS FOR PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS ONLY
Q&A
SuzyNeubertSalesandMarketingDirector
JOHambroCapitalManagement– AnnualSingaporeInvestorDay2018
www.johcm.com
JOHambroCapitalManagementAnnualSingaporeInvestorDay
WEDNESDAY24OCTOBER2018
WifiFullertonTwitter#JOHCM2018