1. Talent Dividend Metrics Joe Cortright October 2010October
2010
2. Roadmap 1. The Talent Dividend Calculation 2. Four Key
Metrics 3. Years of Post Secondary Education 4. MigrationOctober
2010
3. October 2010
4. October 2010
5. TalentOctober 2010
6. The Hypothesis Better educated metropolitan areas have
higher incomes Better skilled workers are more innovative and
productiveOctober 2010
7. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%Washington-Arlington-Alexandria,
DC-VA-MD-WV San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA San
Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH
Raleigh-Cary, NC Austin-Round Rock, TX Minneapolis-St.
Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Denver-Aurora,
CO New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY- Baltimore-Tow son,
MD Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA San Diego-Carlsbad-San
Marcos, CA Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA Hartford-West
Hartford-East Hartford, CT Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI
Columbus, OH Kansas City, MO-KS Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington,
PA-NJ-DE-MD Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC Richmond, VA
Rochester, NY Salt Lake City, UT Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville,
CA Indianapolis-Carmel, IN Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Milw
aukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA
St. Louis, MO-IL Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, TN
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL Orlando-Kissimmee, FL
Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, RI-MA Houston-Sugar Land-Baytow
n, TX Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Pittsburgh, PA
Cincinnati-Middletow n, OH-KY-IN Virginia Beach-Norfolk-New port
New s, VA-NC Four Year College Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI
Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY Oklahoma City, OK Attainment Rate
Birmingham-Hoover, AL Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH New
Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA Jacksonville, FL Tampa-St.
Petersburg-Clearw ater, FL San Antonio, TX Memphis, TN-MS-AR
Louisville-Jefferson County, KY-IN Las Vegas-Paradise, NVOctober
2010Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
8. The EvidenceEducation Explains Most Differences in Metro
IncomeAnnual Per Capita Income, 2005 NY $50,000 $48,000 SEA $46,000
HAR DEN MIN PHI $44,000 HOU BAL SAN y = 763.27x + 16466 2 CHI R =
0.5846 $42,000 MIA NO DAL LA MIL $40,000 PIT LV DET RIC CHA NASIND
STL BIR PRI SAC KC JAC CLE $38,000 CIN POR RAL LOU ROC COL ATL AUS
MEMTPA OKC $36,000 VB SLC PHO BUF $34,000 SAT ORL $32,000 $30,000
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 October 2010 Percent of Population with a
4-Year College Degree, 2006 Sources: BEA (Income), Census
(Education)
9. Estimating the Gain Each 1% improvement in college
attainment is associated with a $763 increase in per capita income
for the entire metropolitan area These education gains are the
product of a shift in the entire skill distribution, not just
moving 1% past the 4 year markOctober 2010
10. Make progress at every stageOctober 2010
11. 2. Metrics for improving attainment High School Completion
College Continuation Adult Post-Secondary Education College
CompletionOctober 2010
12. Different Sources of Data Institutional Enrollment records
Generated by schools Aggregated by others (NCES, NCHEMS, NSC)
Population Survey data Gathered by Census Bureau Covers entire
population; sampling variabilityOctober 2010
13. Institutional Measures Administrative records from
educational institutions Diplomas, Enrollment Reported to and
aggregated by national organizations NCES, National Student
Clearinghouse High coverage/ Can drill down; but can be vague and
anomalousOctober 2010
14. High School Completion Cumulative Promotion Index Product
of high school grade level success rates: [(9th to 10th %) x (10th
to 11th %) x (11th to 12th) % x (12th to Diploma %)] If 90% are
promoted each year CPI= .9 x .9 x .9 x .9 = 65.1% Computed from
NCES dataOctober 2010
15. High School Graduation Rates (CPI Method) WAS CIN PDX DET
SAC IND NY BAL PHI MEM RIC KC VBN RAL ROC HOU RIV DEN NAS ATL OKC
LOU MIL SLC AUS STL SDO JFL BIR CLE SEA TSP LA SJO DFW CHI MSP PHX
LV MIA CHA ORL COL SAT SFO BUF 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75%
80% 85% Source: Computed from NCES/CCDOctober 2010
16. College Completion Institutions report 6-year graduation
rate for four-year institutions Data reported by institutions,
tabulated by IPEDS We sum by metro area, weighting institutional
rates by enrollment for four- year institutions.October 2010
17. College Graduation Rates SDO COL LA SEA RIC SAC STL ORL ATL
CLE ROC JFL BUF AUS TSP NAS BOS MIA VBN BAL PDX RIV PHI OKC CIN HAR
DFW NY RAL DET NOLA CHA PIT SLC IND BIR PRO MEM LOU MIL SFO LV KC
CHI SAT PHX HOU DEN WAS MSP SJO 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Source:
Computed from IPEDSOctober 2010
18. Population Measures Data from American Community Survey Two
Questions: Attendance Attainment Asked of 1% Sample Annually Use
3-year 2006-2008 pooled sampleOctober 2010
19. MicroData TabulationsOctober 2010
20. ACS Attendance QuestionOctober 2010
21. The ACS Attainment QuestionOctober 2010
22. High School Completion (on time) What percent of 19 year
olds report having received a high school diploma or GED? Census
question makes no distinction between diploma and GEDOctober
2010
23. College Continuation What proportion of 18 to 24 year olds
who have completed high school are enrolled in college?October
2010
24. College Enrollment Percent of 18-24 Year Olds Attending
Post-Secondary Education SAT PDX CHA HOU MEM LA SJO TSP CIN ROC SEA
CLE NAS BUF SLC SDO WAS PIT IND BAL MIL PRO DFW RIC STL HAR LOU SAC
OKC COL KC BIR MIA AUS PHX ORL DET PHI JFL VBN NOLA CHI SFO RAL LV
DEN RIV ATL MSP NY BOS 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% Source: American
Community Survey, PUMS, 2006-2008October 2010
25. Adult Post-Secondary Education What proportion of 25-44
year olds, who have completed high school, but do not have a
bachelors degree, attended college classes?October 2010
26. Adult Enrollment and Age Enrollment Declines with Age
Percent of Persons with Less than a BA Degree Attending College
Classes, by Age 18.0% 16.0% 14.0%Attending College Classes 12.0%
10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% R2 = 0.983 0.0% 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
60 65 70 Age Source: American Community Survey, PUMS,
2006-2008October 2010
27. Adult Post-Secondary Attendance 25 to 44 Year Olds with No
Four-Year Degree Attending Post-Secondary Classes RIC KC LA PRO TSP
PHX RAL PIT RIV MIL LOU ORL ROC BOS CHI SEA PDX NY PHI HOU COL MIA
SAT SJO DFW NAS ATL AUS HAR CLE WAS OKC NOLA CHA CIN MSP STL JFL
BAL SLC VBN LV BIR BUF DEN IND MEM DET SFO SDO SAC 5.0% 5.5% 6.0%
6.5% 7.0% 7.5% 8.0% 8.5% 9.0% 9.5% Source: American Community
Survey, PUMS, 2006-2008October 2010
28. College Completion What percent of 24 year olds report
having received a four-year college degree?October 2010
29. College Completion 24 Year Olds with a Four-year degree or
higher CHA BOS ROC IND OKC BAL DEN ATL PRO SEA CLE CHI SDO CIN MIL
DFW PDX HAR BUF DET RIC BIR MSP SAC TSP ORL NAS NY LV PHX LA STL
COL SAT NOLA MEM SJO PHI SLC HOU MIA SFO PIT RIV VBN JFL LOU AUS KC
WAS RAL 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Source: American Community
Survey, PUMS, 2006-2008October 2010
30. Making Use of the Data Where am is my region strong and
weak? Who is doing better that I might learn from? Are there
special conditions that affect local performance?October 2010
31. Years of Post-Secondary Education Four-year degree
attainment rate is too simple to capture the size of the Talent
Dividend challenge How much additional education is needed to raise
the attanment rate?October 2010
32. October 2010
33. YPSE Weights Value Years of PSE High school graduate, or
Less 0 Some college, less than 1 year .5 One or more years of
college but no degree 1.2 Associate degree 2 Bachelors degree 4
Masters degree 5 Professional degree 5 Doctorate degree 7October
2010
34. YPSE v. 4 year attainment Years of Post-Secondary Education
Correlates with BA Attainment y = 0.2097x - 0.0634 R2 = 0.9763
60.0% 50.0% 40.0% BA Attainment Rate 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0 0.5 1
1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 YPSE: Years of Post-Secondary Education Source:
American Community Survey, PUMS, 2006-2008October 2010
35. How much effort? Years of Post-Secondary Education
Portland: About 100,000 person years of additional post-secondary
education to raise the four-year college attainment rate by 1
percentage point.October 2010
36. Migration About 2.7 million working age persons with
four-year degrees move to a different metropolitan area each
yearOctober 2010
37. Talent Migration * Net In-Migration of Working Aged Adults
with a Four-year Degree PHI CHI JFL MIL BAL LOU SLC PRO CIN VBN DFW
TSP NY BUF SFO PIT PDX HAR IND WAS ATL PHX ROC BOS NAS SDO SAT RAL
MEM ORL COL SJO HOU CHA LV NOLA DET LA MSP KC RIC SAC RIV SEA AUS
-1% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.5% * Not
adjusted for international out-migration Source: American Community
Survey, PUMS, 2006-2008October 2010
