Sustainable Energy and Air Sustainable Energy and Air Quality Planning for the Quality Planning for the

Northeast USNortheast US Application of a Multi-Pollutant Application of a Multi-Pollutant

Policy Analysis Framework to New Policy Analysis Framework to New York StateYork State

Jason RudokasJason Rudokas

EAG CallEAG Call

April 17, 2009April 17, 2009

Celebrating 40 Years in Support of Clean Air for the Celebrating 40 Years in Support of Clean Air for the NortheastNortheast

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Motivation for developing a Motivation for developing a multi-pollutant analytical multi-pollutant analytical

frameworkframework

(or, what are the challenges to and opportunities for

sustainable air quality management?)

Celebrating 40 Years in Support of Clean Air for the Celebrating 40 Years in Support of Clean Air for the NortheastNortheast

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Climate Change in the Climate Change in the NortheastNortheast

Source: UCS NECIA

Alternative energypathways can makea difference in our future climate change“commitment”

Celebrating 40 Years in Support of Clean Air for the Celebrating 40 Years in Support of Clean Air for the NortheastNortheast

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Climate Change in the Climate Change in the NortheastNortheast

Source: UCS NECIA

>90°F >100°F

Difference betweenattainment and

nonattainment??

Celebrating 40 Years in Support of Clean Air for the Celebrating 40 Years in Support of Clean Air for the NortheastNortheast

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Southeast

00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9

1

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

M8hO3 (ppb)

CD

F

2001

2050

2050_np

Small increase in O3 due to climate

Substantial decrease in O3 due to planned emission controls

Northeast

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

M8hO3 (ppb)

CD

F

2001

2050

2050_np

Climate and Air Quality LinksClimate and Air Quality Links(Link 1 - The Impact)(Link 1 - The Impact)

Georgia Tech/NESCAUM/MIT STAR Grant, 2006

Celebrating 40 Years in Support of Clean Air for the Celebrating 40 Years in Support of Clean Air for the NortheastNortheast

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Climate and Air Quality LinksClimate and Air Quality Links(Link 2 - The Opportunity)(Link 2 - The Opportunity)

A Low Carbon Future Could Mean…• Low NOx future

• Low SO2 future

• Low Hg and other toxic metals future

• Low Diesel/Black Carbon future…A more sustainable Future

Celebrating 40 Years in Support of Clean Air for the Celebrating 40 Years in Support of Clean Air for the NortheastNortheast

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Air Quality Management Air Quality Management IssuesIssues

• Acid Deposition• Mercury Deposition• Fine Particles (Health & Visibility)• Ozone• Air Toxics• Climate

Requires 10 or more SIP-type efforts!

Celebrating 40 Years in Support of Clean Air for the Celebrating 40 Years in Support of Clean Air for the NortheastNortheast

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Multi-Pollutant PlanningMulti-Pollutant Planning

• June 2007: Clean Air Act Advisory Committee recommended that governments adopt a comprehensive statewide air quality planning process and move from a single to a multiple pollutant approach in managing air quality

• Northeast States seek to balance climate change and energy work with criteria pollutants and toxics work; looking for ways to analyze and make integrated policy decisions.

Celebrating 40 Years in Support of Clean Air for the Celebrating 40 Years in Support of Clean Air for the NortheastNortheast

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Multi-pollutant Multi-pollutant Policy Analysis Policy Analysis

FrameworkFrameworkfor the Northeast USfor the Northeast US

Policy Goal

NE-MARKAL

12-State REMI

KeyEconomic Indicators

CMAQemiss

ions

expenditures

Wet/DryDeposition

Ambient Concentrations

BenMAP

Health EffectsIncidence and Cost/Benefit

MeteorologyHealth/Valuation

Function

UNH RCMS

ClimateImpacts Models

Costs,Benefits, Adaptations

due to Climate

Global ClimateModel

Celebrating 40 Years in Support of Clean Air for the Celebrating 40 Years in Support of Clean Air for the NortheastNortheast

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NE-MARKAL: Links Energy and NE-MARKAL: Links Energy and Air QualityAir Quality

Air Pollution

Contribution to anthropogenicemissions:

NOx ~ 95%SOx ~ 89%CO ~ 95%Hg ~ 87%CO2 ~94%

Air Quality Concerns:OzonePM2.5Acid depositionToxics

Today’s Energy System

Uranium

Natural Gas

Oil

Oil

Refining

Coal

Renewables

Electricity Generation

Industry

Industry

Commercial

Residential

Automobiles

Source: EPA ORD

Celebrating 40 Years in Support of Clean Air for the Celebrating 40 Years in Support of Clean Air for the NortheastNortheast

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NE-MARKAL: Projects future NE-MARKAL: Projects future Energy AND Air QualityEnergy AND Air Quality

Future Evolution of Today’s Energy System

Source: EPA ORD

Uranium

Fossil Fuels

OilRefining & Processing

H2 Generation

Clean Energy

Biomass

Combustion

Nuclear Power

Gasification

RenewableResources

Carbon Sequestration

Industry

Industry

Commercial

Residential

Automobiles

Celebrating 40 Years in Support of Clean Air for the Celebrating 40 Years in Support of Clean Air for the NortheastNortheast

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NYDEC/NYSERDA Project NYDEC/NYSERDA Project OverviewOverview

(What are the project objectives, scope, tasks, and deliverables?)

Celebrating 40 Years in Support of Clean Air for the Celebrating 40 Years in Support of Clean Air for the NortheastNortheast

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Project Goals:Project Goals:

• To identify a suite of strategies that will simultaneously be able to make significant progress toward ozone, PM, mercury, acid deposition, and climate goals

• To use NESCAUM’s Multi-pollutant Policy Analysis Framework (MPAF) to develop a solid basis for these strategies from the perspectives of the economy, technological evolution, the environment, and other public health endpoints