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If you're looking to stay on top of the local real estate market, the Jonville Team has put together a detailed market update with statistics, suggestions and predictions.
Citation preview
December 2014 shows a year-over-year median price increase of 5% for townhomes/condos and 7% for single family residences in our neighborhood.
This is far more than the rest of North County for attached units (0.1% increase), but almost the same for detached dwell-ings, which show a 6.5% year-over-year increase.
January-May 2014 resulted in very steady prop-erty value increas-es with multiple offers on many properties, creat-ing over-bidding on numerous homes for sale. While most of the appreciation occurred last year in early 2014, the market has experienced a flattening in the spring & summer.
The summer and fall leveling off was due to a combination of factors, includ-ing a higher inventory of homes for sale and a reduction in the demand. The real estate market is driven by supply and demand, much like the rest of the econ-
Back to a Balanced Market
omy, and the buyer demand was mostly affected by the low affordability levels (only 22% of San Diego County house-holds can afford our single family home prices, compared to 25% a year ago), as well as fewer investors “scooping up” properties for cash. However, low inter-
est rates have been helpful in maintaining a healthy level of buyers.
The 2nd part of 2014 showed an increase in price adjustments and Zillow is report-
ing that 40% of properties experienced a price reduction in November 2014 v/s 15% in May 2014.
The market has improved over the last couple of years and is now shifting to slower, more sustainable price increases.
What Are the Expectations For 2015?
Price gains have slowed down in 2014 and we expect more of the same
It’s that time of year again for our market update. After the sharp turn
of 2013, when our local real estate market experienced phenomenal
double digit increases in the winter/spring (15% within a few months),
San Elijo Hills/Old Creek Ranch home values still experienced a fair hike
in 2014 in all categories, from the smallest condos to the largest homes.
By Nicolas Jonville
than market average!Our 2014 performance, in 92078: Our Median Sold Price to List
Price is 100% vs. 96.5% for agent average
6th Straight Year
Quality Service You Can Count on!
REAL ESTATE TEAM
$1,215,000 for 1397 Rock Court in 2013 remains the Highest Residential Resale Price ever for San Elijo Hills
$352/SF NET, Highest price per SF in 2014 for SAN ELIJO DETACHED HOMES - Our sale at 1537 Boxwood
IN SALES VOLUME AND # OF TRANSACTIONSFOR 2014 , PER SAN DIEGO MLS REPORTED SALES
TOUCHDOWN!
OUR 2014 TOP SCORESALTAIRE
1047 Pavo Highest price for
neighborhood $950,000
ATHERTON1227 Holmgrove
Highest price per SF $264/SF
CARMEL1576 Archer Rd Highest Sold at
$765,000
CRESTVIEW1089 Brightwood Highest price for
neighborhood $739,000
PROMONTORY RIDGE Highest sold prices
1) 1573 Glencrest ($764,000)2) 1549 Stargaze3) 1649 Portside
SAGEWOOD
(Excluding pool homes)
1602 Sagewood Way Highest price per SF, $243/SF
Highest price for neighborhood
$719,000
WOODLEY’S GLEN1781 Grain Mill
Highest price per SF $268/SF
WATERFORD1676 Reflection
Highest price per SF $286/SF
CALISTOGA1727 Kenwood Pl
Highest price per SF, $345/SF 1126 Calistoga Way,
Highest price for neighborhood $632,000
ACACIA1537 Boxwood Ct, Highest price per SF, $352/SF NET
1532 Boxwood Ct, Highest price for neighborhood
$662,500
BELLEZA602 Paseo Dorado
Highest price per SF $256/SF
WESTRIDGE1273 Highbluff
Highest price per SF $349/SF
MORGANS CORNER1788 Morgans Rd, Highest
price Plan 1, $400,0001704 Morgans Rd, Highest price
for neighborhood $435,000
LARKSPUR CREEK2467 Longstaff Ct
Highest price for neighborhood $406,000
SPRINGFIELD1180 Caprise
Highest price per SF, $285/SF Highest price for neighborhood
$402,500
ACACIA ALSO THE highest
prIce per SF in San Elijo for detached
homes overall
DEDICATED TO PROVIDING THE BEST EXPERIENCE
www.SEHproperties.com | 2015
Considering a move or investment? We can help!
Specializing in San Elijo Hills & Old Creek Ranch.
Call or email us today for a free consultation.
(760) 471-5098
1215 San Elijo Road San Elijo Hills, CA 92078
Nicolas CA BRE #01410224 Keller Williams Realty CA BRE #01417209
If you are already in contract with an agent, this is not as a solicitation
MORE
• #1 IN SAN ELIJO HILLS/OLD CREEK RANCH• #1 IN SAN MARCOS
• #1 KW TEAM IN SO CAL• TOP 40 KW TEAM WORLDWIDE
PROVEN SUCCESSTHANK YOU FOR YOUR BUSINESS AND TRUST
Selling at $21,000 more
Venzano/San Elijo 1817 Windriver5 Bedroom/4.5 Bath 3,164 ESF. Offered at $749,000
Calistogoa/San Elijo1710 Kenwood Dr4 Bedroom/2.5 Bath 2,128 ESF. Offered at $624,990
www.SEHproperties.com | 2015www.SEHproperties.com | 2015
in 2015. We are not expecting any of the roller coasters experienced in previ-ous years, but do expect to see a steady increase of the market in the mid-single digits. For a sustainable recovery, there needs to be a healthy balance between buyers and sellers, and this is what we believe will occur in 2015.
Our local market remains 10 to 15% below its peak of 2006 and has room to grow, but a slower growth pace would provide a stronger foundation.
There are still positive health indicators: • Distressed properties are now rare on
the market. Zillow reports that 92078has 2 homes per 10,000 in foreclosure,compared to 15 in 2011 and 30 in2008! See above graphic.
• Unemployment, at 6%, hasdecreased tremendously compared to2009-2011.
• Interest rates remain very low anddropped again to below 4% for a 30year fixed rate loan in late 2014.
• While the qualification requirementsfor a loan are much more stringentthan in previous years, new programsare available with far lower down-pay-ment requirements than the traditional20%.
• Many borrowers who experienced ashort sale in previous years are able to
Staying put?If you own a home and do not intend
to sell for years to come, you might want to consider refinancing if your rate is not locked or is above 4%.Buyers (and tenants):
• With the high risk of rate increase, buying maymake a lot of sense. An increase of 1% in interest rate is close to a 20% increase in monthly payment, or 20% less in what the bank might approve you for.
• If you are renting, check your rental cost v/s cost of ownership. With the nearly 10% average rent increase since early 2013, many renters are realizing that ownership may cost less than renting, particularly considering tax benefits & the potential to build equity.
• If you are consideringbuying an investment prop-erty, again, it may be wise to purchase before interest rates rise.
• Make sure to get pre-approved with a reliable lender and seek the advice and representation of an experienced agent who understands the market, is a skilled negotiator and is well connected.
Sellers:• In a competitive market, it is essential
to hire top professionals who should implement a comprehensive strategy, and price and market your home very effectively. This should allow you to sell your property to it’s full potential. We are looking forward to assisting you with your real estate plans!
When buying or selling a home,
there are numerous aspects to consider.
Every year, we consult and build strate-
gies with families who each have their
own needs, desires and budget. We pro-
vide information and expertise to enlight-
en them with the process and help them
build their real estate plans. From appro-
priate pricing to strong marketing, nego-
tiations to appraisal, these aspects need
to be handled with care and expertise by
professionals who are dedicated to your
best interest and are knowledgeable of
the market and contract specifics. Our
local presence, knowledge of the market
and strong marketing program has been
key in helping our clients achieve suc-
cessful real estate planning. We gladly
offer our advice and services.
Nicolas Jonville, Owner/Broker Associate of The Jonville Team with Keller Williams Realty at 1215 San Elijo Rd., San Elijo Hills, CA 92078 & 6005 Hidden Valley Rd, Suite 200, Carlsbad, CA 92011, T: 760-471-5098, E: [email protected], W: www. JonvilleTeam.com, (CA BRE #01410224 / KW CA BRE #01417209)
buy again, having reached the 2-3 year requirement for re-purchase.
• Our prices remain very affordable com-pared to many other coastal communitiesand our community appeal, as well asoutstanding schools, are definitely sup-porting our market.
• The low inventory that we are experienc-ing is keeping this market a seller’smarket, supporting price increases.
Several challenges can affect our market:• Interest rates, still at record low levels,
will very likely rise. The strengthening economy and the Fed’s response may push up the rates. Freddie Mac forecasts them to be a 5% in Q4 of 2015.
• Buyers are making their moves with cau-tion due to the fear of adownturn, and any slow-down in the economicrecovery could impact thehousing demand.
• Affordability is reach-ing very low levels and afast rise in interest rateswould be detrimental.
Depending on your situ-ation, today’s real estate mar-ket may offer great opportu-nities for you:
MARKET UPDATE: BALANCED MARKET (CONTINUED) THE JONVILLE TEAM
Updated from our article in Share San Elijo, Jan 2014 issue
Calistoga/San Elijo 1744 Kenwood Pl 3 Bed+loft/2.5 Bath 2,106 ESF. Offered at $619,900
Azure/San Elijo 832 Genoa Way5 Bed+office/4.5 Bath 4,011 ESF.Offered at $859,000
Azure/San Elijo 893 Genoa Way4 Bed+loft/3 Bath 3,334 ESF. Offered at $899,000
Laurel/Old Creek Ranch2229 Granby Way3 Bed+ loft/2.5 Bath1,650 ESF.VR $499,000-515,000
JUST LISTED WITH THE JONVILLE TEAM
Instant Home Valuation at
SEHhomevalue.comContact Us Today for a Free Consultation & Home Valuation
THE JONVILLE’S MAXIMUM MARKETING EXPOSURE
SELL YOUR HOME WITH US AND EXPECT...
Placement On Top Real Estate Websites - incl. Zillow/Trulia/Realtor
Jonville Team Online Solutions
Professional Photography/Staging/Virtual, Aerial Tours & Videos
Promoting Your Property to a Global Market - Over 60M buyers
Aggressive Print Media
Promoting Your Property to the Top Relocation Placement Companies
Social Media Engagement
Email Engagement
Member of Keller Williams Realty & Ranked Top 40 Team Worldwide
And More Exclusive Jonville Team Marketing Tools
PROVEN RESULTSOVER 165 CLOSED
TRANSACTIONS IN 2014 OVER $78 MILLION IN SALES
Magnolia/OCR2433 Sentinel Wy3 Bed+office/3.5 Bath 1,649 ESF. VR $447,000-$464,000
IN ESCROW
Westridge/San Elijo 1339 Sky Ridge Ct4 Bedroom/3 Bath 1,656 ESF. VR $449,900-$469,500
IN ESCROW
Belmont/San Elijo 1519 Chert Dr3 Bedroom/2.5 Bath 1,459 ESF. Offered at $510,000
IN ESCROW
IN ESCROW IN 12 DAYS!
Magnolia/OCR 2655 Rawhide Ln 2 Bed+loft/2.5 Bath 1,477 ESF. Offered at $380,000
Morgans C./San Elijo 1160 Goddard St3 Bedroom/3.5 Bath 1,740 ESF. Offered at $429,000
IN ESCROW
CALL US FOR OPEN HOUSE CALENDAR OR
PRIVATE SHOWING (760) 471-5098
IN ESCROW
Venzano/San Elijo 1817 Windriver5 Bedroom/4.5 Bath 3,164 ESF. Offered at $749,000
Calistogoa/San Elijo1710 Kenwood Dr4 Bedroom/2.5 Bath 2,128 ESF. Offered at $624,990
www.SEHproperties.com | 2015www.SEHproperties.com | 2015
in 2015. We are not expecting any of the roller coasters experienced in previ-ous years, but do expect to see a steady increase of the market in the mid-single digits. For a sustainable recovery, there needs to be a healthy balance between buyers and sellers, and this is what we believe will occur in 2015.
Our local market remains 10 to 15% below its peak of 2006 and has room to grow, but a slower growth pace would provide a stronger foundation.
There are still positive health indicators: • Distressed properties are now rare on
the market. Zillow reports that 92078has 2 homes per 10,000 in foreclosure,compared to 15 in 2011 and 30 in2008! See above graphic.
• Unemployment, at 6%, hasdecreased tremendously compared to2009-2011.
• Interest rates remain very low anddropped again to below 4% for a 30year fixed rate loan in late 2014.
• While the qualification requirementsfor a loan are much more stringentthan in previous years, new programsare available with far lower down-pay-ment requirements than the traditional20%.
• Many borrowers who experienced ashort sale in previous years are able to
Staying put?If you own a home and do not intend
to sell for years to come, you might want to consider refinancing if your rate is not locked or is above 4%.Buyers (and tenants):
• With the high risk of rate increase, buying maymake a lot of sense. An increase of 1% in interest rate is close to a 20% increase in monthly payment, or 20% less in what the bank might approve you for.
• If you are renting, check your rental cost v/s cost of ownership. With the nearly 10% average rent increase since early 2013, many renters are realizing that ownership may cost less than renting, particularly considering tax benefits & the potential to build equity.
• If you are consideringbuying an investment prop-erty, again, it may be wise to purchase before interest rates rise.
• Make sure to get pre-approved with a reliable lender and seek the advice and representation of an experienced agent who understands the market, is a skilled negotiator and is well connected.
Sellers:• In a competitive market, it is essential
to hire top professionals who should implement a comprehensive strategy, and price and market your home very effectively. This should allow you to sell your property to it’s full potential. We are looking forward to assisting you with your real estate plans!
When buying or selling a home,
there are numerous aspects to consider.
Every year, we consult and build strate-
gies with families who each have their
own needs, desires and budget. We pro-
vide information and expertise to enlight-
en them with the process and help them
build their real estate plans. From appro-
priate pricing to strong marketing, nego-
tiations to appraisal, these aspects need
to be handled with care and expertise by
professionals who are dedicated to your
best interest and are knowledgeable of
the market and contract specifics. Our
local presence, knowledge of the market
and strong marketing program has been
key in helping our clients achieve suc-
cessful real estate planning. We gladly
offer our advice and services.
Nicolas Jonville, Owner/Broker Associate of The Jonville Team with Keller Williams Realty at 1215 San Elijo Rd., San Elijo Hills, CA 92078 & 6005 Hidden Valley Rd, Suite 200, Carlsbad, CA 92011, T: 760-471-5098, E: [email protected], W: www. JonvilleTeam.com, (CA BRE #01410224 / KW CA BRE #01417209)
buy again, having reached the 2-3 year requirement for re-purchase.
• Our prices remain very affordable com-pared to many other coastal communitiesand our community appeal, as well asoutstanding schools, are definitely sup-porting our market.
• The low inventory that we are experienc-ing is keeping this market a seller’smarket, supporting price increases.
Several challenges can affect our market:• Interest rates, still at record low levels,
will very likely rise. The strengthening economy and the Fed’s response may push up the rates. Freddie Mac forecasts them to be a 5% in Q4 of 2015.
• Buyers are making their moves with cau-tion due to the fear of adownturn, and any slow-down in the economicrecovery could impact thehousing demand.
• Affordability is reach-ing very low levels and afast rise in interest rateswould be detrimental.
Depending on your situ-ation, today’s real estate mar-ket may offer great opportu-nities for you:
MARKET UPDATE: BALANCED MARKET (CONTINUED) THE JONVILLE TEAM
Updated from our article in Share San Elijo, Jan 2014 issue
Calistoga/San Elijo 1744 Kenwood Pl 3 Bed+loft/2.5 Bath 2,106 ESF. Offered at $619,900
Azure/San Elijo 832 Genoa Way5 Bed+office/4.5 Bath 4,011 ESF.Offered at $859,000
Azure/San Elijo 893 Genoa Way4 Bed+loft/3 Bath 3,334 ESF. Offered at $899,000
Laurel/Old Creek Ranch2229 Granby Way3 Bed+ loft/2.5 Bath1,650 ESF.VR $499,000-515,000
JUST LISTED WITH THE JONVILLE TEAM
Instant Home Valuation at
SEHhomevalue.comContact Us Today for a Free Consultation & Home Valuation
THE JONVILLE’S MAXIMUM MARKETING EXPOSURE
SELL YOUR HOME WITH US AND EXPECT...
Placement On Top Real Estate Websites - incl. Zillow/Trulia/Realtor
Jonville Team Online Solutions
Professional Photography/Staging/Virtual, Aerial Tours & Videos
Promoting Your Property to a Global Market - Over 60M buyers
Aggressive Print Media
Promoting Your Property to the Top Relocation Placement Companies
Social Media Engagement
Email Engagement
Member of Keller Williams Realty & Ranked Top 40 Team Worldwide
And More Exclusive Jonville Team Marketing Tools
PROVEN RESULTSOVER 165 CLOSED
TRANSACTIONS IN 2014 OVER $78 MILLION IN SALES
Magnolia/OCR2433 Sentinel Wy3 Bed+office/3.5 Bath 1,649 ESF. VR $447,000-$464,000
IN ESCROW
Westridge/San Elijo 1339 Sky Ridge Ct4 Bedroom/3 Bath 1,656 ESF. VR $449,900-$469,500
IN ESCROW
Belmont/San Elijo 1519 Chert Dr3 Bedroom/2.5 Bath 1,459 ESF. Offered at $510,000
IN ESCROW
IN ESCROW IN 12 DAYS!
Magnolia/OCR 2655 Rawhide Ln 2 Bed+loft/2.5 Bath 1,477 ESF. Offered at $380,000
Morgans C./San Elijo 1160 Goddard St3 Bedroom/3.5 Bath 1,740 ESF. Offered at $429,000
IN ESCROW
CALL US FOR OPEN HOUSE CALENDAR OR
PRIVATE SHOWING (760) 471-5098
IN ESCROW
December 2014 shows a year-over-year median price increase of 5% for townhomes/condos and 7% for single family residences in our neighborhood.
This is far more than the rest of North County for attached units (0.1% increase), but almost the same for detached dwell-ings, which show a 6.5% year-over-year increase.
January-May 2014 resulted in very steady prop-erty value increas-es with multiple offers on many properties, creat-ing over-bidding on numerous homes for sale. While most of the appreciation occurred last year in early 2014, the market has experienced a flattening in the spring & summer.
The summer and fall leveling off was due to a combination of factors, includ-ing a higher inventory of homes for sale and a reduction in the demand. The real estate market is driven by supply and demand, much like the rest of the econ-
Back to a Balanced Market
omy, and the buyer demand was mostly affected by the low affordability levels (only 22% of San Diego County house-holds can afford our single family home prices, compared to 25% a year ago), as well as fewer investors “scooping up” properties for cash. However, low inter-
est rates have been helpful in maintaining a healthy level of buyers.
The 2nd part of 2014 showed an increase in price adjustments and Zillow is report-
ing that 40% of properties experienced a price reduction in November 2014 v/s 15% in May 2014.
The market has improved over the last couple of years and is now shifting to slower, more sustainable price increases.
What Are the Expectations For 2015?
Price gains have slowed down in 2014 and we expect more of the same
It’s that time of year again for our market update. After the sharp turn
of 2013, when our local real estate market experienced phenomenal
double digit increases in the winter/spring (15% within a few months),
San Elijo Hills/Old Creek Ranch home values still experienced a fair hike
in 2014 in all categories, from the smallest condos to the largest homes.
By Nicolas Jonville
than market average!Our 2014 performance, in 92078: Our Median Sold Price to List
Price is 100% vs. 96.5% for agent average
6th Straight Year
Quality Service You Can Count on!
REAL ESTATE TEAM
$1,215,000 for 1397 Rock Court in 2013 remains the Highest Residential Resale Price ever for San Elijo Hills
$352/SF NET, Highest price per SF in 2014 for SAN ELIJO DETACHED HOMES - Our sale at 1537 Boxwood
IN SALES VOLUME AND # OF TRANSACTIONSFOR 2014 , PER SAN DIEGO MLS REPORTED SALES
TOUCHDOWN!
OUR 2014 TOP SCORESALTAIRE
1047 Pavo Highest price for
neighborhood $950,000
ATHERTON1227 Holmgrove
Highest price per SF $264/SF
CARMEL1576 Archer Rd Highest Sold at
$765,000
CRESTVIEW1089 Brightwood Highest price for
neighborhood $739,000
PROMONTORY RIDGE Highest sold prices
1) 1573 Glencrest ($764,000)2) 1549 Stargaze3) 1649 Portside
SAGEWOOD
(Excluding pool homes)
1602 Sagewood Way Highest price per SF, $243/SF
Highest price for neighborhood
$719,000
WOODLEY’S GLEN1781 Grain Mill
Highest price per SF $268/SF
WATERFORD1676 Reflection
Highest price per SF $286/SF
CALISTOGA1727 Kenwood Pl
Highest price per SF, $345/SF 1126 Calistoga Way,
Highest price for neighborhood $632,000
ACACIA1537 Boxwood Ct, Highest price per SF, $352/SF NET
1532 Boxwood Ct, Highest price for neighborhood
$662,500
BELLEZA602 Paseo Dorado
Highest price per SF $256/SF
WESTRIDGE1273 Highbluff
Highest price per SF $349/SF
MORGANS CORNER1788 Morgans Rd, Highest
price Plan 1, $400,0001704 Morgans Rd, Highest price
for neighborhood $435,000
LARKSPUR CREEK2467 Longstaff Ct
Highest price for neighborhood $406,000
SPRINGFIELD1180 Caprise
Highest price per SF, $285/SF Highest price for neighborhood
$402,500
ACACIA ALSO THE highest
prIce per SF in San Elijo for detached
homes overall
DEDICATED TO PROVIDING THE BEST EXPERIENCE
www.SEHproperties.com | 2015
Considering a move or investment? We can help!
Specializing in San Elijo Hills & Old Creek Ranch.
Call or email us today for a free consultation.
(760) 471-5098
1215 San Elijo Road San Elijo Hills, CA 92078
Nicolas CA BRE #01410224 Keller Williams Realty CA BRE #01417209
If you are already in contract with an agent, this is not as a solicitation
MORE
• #1 IN SAN ELIJO HILLS/OLD CREEK RANCH• #1 IN SAN MARCOS
• #1 KW TEAM IN SO CAL• TOP 40 KW TEAM WORLDWIDE
PROVEN SUCCESSTHANK YOU FOR YOUR BUSINESS AND TRUST
Selling at $21,000 more