January 5, 2010 Policy Research Directorate, Strategic Policy and Research Branch

A 10-year Outlook for the Canadian Labour Market (COPS 2009 Reference Projection) Part 1: Labour Demand: the Jobs of the Future

January 5, 2010

Policy Research Directorate, Strategic Policy and Research Branch

2

Macro-Economic Reference Scenario 2009 – Key Messages

Years prior to the recession: −Solid performance of the Canadian economy, with resource boom

bringing substantial gains in terms of trade and national income, leading to strong job creation in most sectors and a fall in the unemployment rate to 30-year lows

−But challenges for the manufacturing sector: globalization, higher materials/energy costs, and substantial appreciation of the Canadian dollar

Changes from Reference 2008: −In the short term, much weaker growth in GDP and employment, and

slightly stronger growth thereafter−On average, growth relatively unchanged for the full 10 years

Current versus previous two recessions: −Canada's current recession is typical: slightly faster fall, slightly shorter

duration−Full recovery in GDP and employment to pre-recession levels by 2011 −Smaller increase and faster recovery to pre-recession low in the

unemployment rate due to slower labour force growth

Next decade versus previous decade:−Slower growth in GDP and employment, mostly due to demographics

3

The global financial crisis has led to the deepest world recession since the Great Depression, ...

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014

World Real GDP Growthpercentage change

Oil supply shocks in 1973 and 1979

US savings and loan crisis + Gulf War oil shock

Asian financial and economic crisis

World high-tech boom and bust

China joined WTO

1970-2014 Average

Global financial crisis and deepest world recession since the Great Depression

Global responses from fiscal and monetary authorities

Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Economic Outlook Database.

4

... but the decline in Canadian real GDP in this recession has not been worse than in the previous two downturns

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

1970 1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006 2012 2018

Canadian Real GDP Growthpercentage change

1981-82 recession

1991 recession

1970-2018 Average

2009 recession

Sources: 1970-2008: Statistics Canada, Economic Accounts. 2009-2018: HRSDC, Policy Research Directorate, 2009 Reference Scenario.

5

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006 2012 2018

Actual2008 P rojection2009 P rojection

Real Canadian GDP$ Billions 2006

Tightening in monetary policy to fight higher inflationLow fiscal policy leverage due to high budget deficits

Globalization and higher demand from emerging economies leading to a favourable increase in our terms of trade

Substantial responses from fiscal and monetary authorities U.S. housing collapse

and global financial crisis leading to worldwide recession

FTA (1989) and NAFTA (1994)

Slower population growth and population ageing

Average Annual Growth: 2009-2018: +2.4%1999-2008: +3.0%

Slower population growth and population ageing will restrain the economy’s capacity to expand in the longer term

Sources: Statistics Canada, Economic Accounts. 2009-2018: HRSDC, Policy Research Directorate, 2008 and 2009 Reference Scenarios.Note: Shaded bars represent recessions.

6

Potential output growth of the Canadian economy will be limited by labour availability

Decomposition of Potential Output Growth(Average annual contribution to potential output growth, by input; in per cent)

2003-07 2008-13 2014-18

Recession Recovery

(2008-09) (2010-13)

Labour 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4

Capital 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.3

Total Factor Productivity 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.7

Potential Output 2.4 2.1 2.2 2.3

Actual Output 2.7 -0.7 3.6 2.3

Sources: Conference Board of Canada and HRSDC, Policy Research Directorate, 2009 Reference Scenario.

7

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006 2012 2018


Total Employmentmillions

Decline of 3.1% in 1982; It took about 2 years before returning to pre-recession level

Cumulative decline of 2.7% in 1991 and 1992; It took about 2 years before returning to pre-recession level

Expected decline of 2.0% in 2009 (actual decline of 1.6% in first ten months).Full recovery by 2011

Strong job creation and significant increases in PR and ER

Average Annual Growth: 2009-2018: +0.8%1999-2008: +2.0%

Slower growthin labour force

Employment will return to its baseline trajectory by 2013 but longer-term growth will be constrained by labour force

Sources: 1976-2008: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey. 2009-2018: HRSDC, Policy Research Directorate, 2008 and 2009 Reference Scenarios.

8

The unemployment rate is expected to recover at a faster pace than in the previous two recessions due to slower labour force growth

Sources: 1976-2008: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey. 2009-2018: HRSDC, Policy Research Directorate, 2009 Reference Scenario.

0

3

6

9

12

15

1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006 2012 2018


Unemployment Ratepercent

It took from 8 to 10 years before returning to pre-recession level

Smaller increase and faster recovery than previous recessions due to slower growth in labour force

9

‘The Jobs of the Future’ by Industry – Key Messages

Years prior to recession: Strong employment gains in primary and domestic-oriented* sectors,

driven by resource-boom and gains in terms of trade and national income Declining trend in manufacturing employment brought by adjustments to

higher dollar, higher energy costs and increased competition from low-cost countries

Current versus previous two recessions: Hardest hit industries the ‘usual suspects’: manufacturing (particularly

auto and wood), construction, forestry, and mining and fuels Services industries much less cyclically-sensitive

Changes from Reference 2008: Slower employment growth in primary, manufacturing and domestic-

oriented sectors in the short term Employment in most industries returning to Ref 2008 by mid next decade,

except in manufacturing where projections were revised to a permanent lower trajectory

For the whole 10-year period, much weaker employment growth in manufacturing and relatively no change in remaining two sectors

Next decade versus previous decade: Slower employment growth in the domestic-oriented sector Modest improvement in the primary and manufacturing sectors

* Note: The domestic-oriented sector is composed of construction, utilities, commercial and public services industries.

10

60

80

100

120

140

160

1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006 2012 2018

PrimaryManufacturing Domestic -oriented

Employment by Aggregated Sectorindex 1989 = 100

Adjustment to higher dollar and commodity prices and increased competition from low-cost countries

Most of the decline in agriculture and fishing

Most of the rebound in mining and fuels

Manufacturing and primary sectors are highly cyclical and more sensitive to global economic conditions

Solid growth in domestic demand leading to job creation in construction, commercial services and health/education

As in previous decades, job creation will be driven by the less cyclically-sensitive domestic-oriented sector

Sources: 1976-2008: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey (based on NAICS, data prior to 1987 based on SIC). 2009-2018: HRSDC, Policy Research Directorate, 2009 Reference Scenario.

11

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006 2012 2018


Employment in Primary Industries

thousands

Agriculture and Fishing

Mining and Fuels

Forestry

Lower world prices, severe droughts, fishing quotas

Booming global demand for energy and base metals

US housing crisis and lower residential investment in Canada

Shift from conventional oil production to oil sands extraction

Despite slower growth in the next decade, mining and fuels will continue to support job creation in the primary sector


12

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.3

1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006 2012 2018


Manufacturing Employment by Export Intensity

millions

Low Export-Oriented

High Export-Oriented

Downsizing in automotive and wood products industries

NAFTA and the depreciationof the dollar

Higher dollar and commodity prices and increased competition from low-cost countries

Gains in food, rubber, and chemical industries

Gains in computer, electronic and other transportation equipment industries

Slight turnaround in manufacturing industries, resulting in virtually no employment growth over the coming decade

Sources: 1976-2008: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey (based on NAICS, data prior to 1987 based on SIC). 2009-2018: HRSDC, Policy Research Directorate, 2009 Reference Scenario.Note: see Annex for the definition of low and high export-oriented industries.

13

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006 2012 2018


Employment in Construction (and Utilities)

millions

Residential and non residential investment driven by lower interest rates, solid growth in household income, wealth and corporate profits

Plunge in residential investment after the unprecedented boom of previous years

Lower housing requirement due to slower population growth and population ageing

Growth will be mainly driven by non residential investment

Employment in construction is highly cyclical

Job creation is expected to slow in construction, reflecting lower housing requirements due to demographic factors


14

1

2

3

4

5

1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006 2012 2018


Employment in Commercial Servicesmillions

Business investment largely driven by healthy growth in corporate profits

Reflecting slower GDP growth in services, party attributable to demographic factors

Household consumption largely driven by solid growth in disposable income and wealth gains Consumer-oriented

services more cyclically sensitive as they tend to be more affected by changes in household income and job insecurity (retail trade and tourism)

Commercial services will remain the largest contributors to overall job creation in the longer term

Consumer-Oriented

Business-Oriented

Sources: 1976-2008: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey (based on NAICS, data prior to 1987 based on SIC). 2009-2018: HRSDC, Policy Research Directorate, 2009 Reference Scenario.Note: see Annex for the definition of consumer- and business-oriented services industries.

15

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006 2012 2018


Employment in Public Servicesmillions

Education

Public Administration

Health

Closely linked to the fiscal positions and programs of governments

Employment in public services is much less sensitive to the business cycle

Increased government spending in health care and educational services(population ageing and knowledge-based economy)

In public services, job creation will continue to be largely driven by the health care and social assistance industry


16

10-Year Employment Growth Outlook for 33 COPS Industries

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

Computer System Design ServicesProfessional Business Services

Health Care and Social AssistanceOil and Gas Extraction

Other Professional Services (scientific, technical)Other Transportation Equipment

Mining (except oil and gas extraction)Accommodation and Food Services

Information, Culture and Recreation ServicesManagement, Administrative and Support

Computer, Electronic and Electrical ProductsWholesale Trade

Retail TradeOther Commercial Services (household serv.)

Educational ServicesUtilities

Support Activities for Mining Oil and GasPublic Administration

Rubber, Plastics and ChemicalsFood and Beverage Products

Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and LeasingConstruction

AgricultureFishing, Hunting and Trapping

Transportation and WarehousingManufactured Mineral Products

Metal Fabrication and Machinery Printing and Related Activities

Forestry and LoggingOther Manufacturing (textile, clothing furniture)

Wood Products Paper Manufacturing

Motor Vehicles, Trailers and Parts Average = 0.8%

(AAGR 2009-2018, per cent)

Mainly domestic-oriented industries (most commercial services + public services) and some high-tech manufacturing industries

High-tech industries, mining and fuels, health care and professional services

Most manufacturing and primary industries (excluding mining and fuels) + FIRE and construction

Source: HRSDC, Policy Research Directorate, 2009 Reference Scenario.

17

Historically, employment growth in high-skilled jobs has been stronger, especially during economic downturns

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

High-skilled

Low-skilled

1990's Recession

Low-skilled:395,600 (-7.2%) jobs lostin 29 months

High-skilled:67,500 (-0.9%) jobs lostin 29 months

High-skilled:193,300 (-1.8%) jobs lostin 11 months

Low-skilled:163,400 (-2.5%) jobs lostin 11 months

High- and Low-Skilled Employment, Monthly, 1987-2009M9Thousands

Sources: Statistics Canada and HRSDC, Policy Research Directorate, 2009 Reference Scenario.

High-skilled group is composed of Management, Skill Levels A and BLow-skilled group is composed of Skill Levels C and D

18

Index of Employment by Skill Level during the 1990s and Current Recessions

In the current recession, high-skilled occupations have been more impacted than in previous downturns

Low-Skilled J obs

0.90

0.92

0.94

0.96

0.98

1.00

1.02

-4 -2base 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28

Months

Base: October, 2008

Base: April, 1990

395,600 (-7.2% ) jobs lost in 29 months (Sept. 1992)

163,400 (-2.5% ) jobs lostin 11 months (Sept 2009)


High-skilled group is composed of Management and Skill Levels A and BLow-skilled group is composed of Skill Levels C and D

High-Skilled J obs

0.90

0.92

0.94

0.96

0.98

1.00

1.02

-4 -2base2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28

Months

Base: October, 2008

Base: April, 1990

67,500 (-0.9% ) jobs lost in 29 months (Sept. 1992)

193,300 (-1.8% ) jobs lost in11 months (Sept. 2009)

19

High- and Low-Skilled Employment, 2005-2018

The impact of the recession on low-skilled jobs will be felt longer

High-Skilled

8,000

8,500

9,000

9,500

10,000

10,500

11,000

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Actual

2008 Projection

2009 Projection

Thousands

3 yrs



Low-Skilled

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

8,000

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Actual

2008 Projection

2009 Projection

Thousands

5 yrs

3 yrs

20

High- and Low-Skilled Employment (Non-student), 2005-2018

Over the next ten years, 3 in 4 new jobs are expected to be in management or in occupations usually requiring postsecondary education



-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

16,000

17,000

18,000

Annual Change, Low-SkilledAnnual Change, High-SkilledEmployment (Right-Hand Scale)

Annual Change, Thousands Thousands

Annual change,

left-hand side scale

Employment

right-hand side scale

21

2008

28.4%

9.8%

18.0%

9.7%

34.2%

Management university educationcollege or apprenticeship secondary schoolon-the-job training


High-skilled occupations represented 61.9% of total employment in 2008

Employment Composition by Skill Level (Non-student), 2008

High-Skilled Jobs 61.9%

Low-Skilled Jobs 38.1%

22

2018

27.7%

9.5%

19.1%

9.8%

33.9%

Management university educationcollege or apprenticeship secondary schoolon-the-job training


The proportion of high-skilled occupations is expected to change minimally over the next 10 years

Employment Composition by Skill Level (Non-student), 2018

High-Skilled Jobs 62.8%

Low-Skilled Jobs 37.2%

73.6% of expansion demand will be in high-skilled occupations (2009-2018)

23

11 22 33 44 55 66 77 88 99

BUS, FINBUS, FIN

& ADMIN& ADMIN

NATUR & NATUR & APPLIEDAPPLIED

SCIENCESCIENCEHEALTHHEALTH

SOCIAL, EDU,SOCIAL, EDU,

GOV’T SERV GOV’T SERV & RELIGION& RELIGION

ART,ART,

CULTU, CULTU, RECR & RECR & SPORTSPORT

SALES & SALES & SERVSERV

TRADES, TRADES, TRANSP TRANSP

AND EQUIAND EQUI

PRIMARY PRIMARY INDUINDU

PROCESS PROCESS MANUMANU

& UTIL& UTIL

MANAG.MANAG. Management N010

LEVEL ALEVEL Auniversityuniversity

11 - Prof in Business & Finance

21 - Prof in Natural / Applied Sciences

31 - Prof in Health

41 - Prof in Social Sci / Edu / Gov't Serv/Religion

51 - Prof in Art & Culture

LEVEL BLEVEL Bcollege orcollege or

apprenticapprentic

12 - Skilled Admin & Business

22 - Techl Occ's Related to Natural / Applied Sciences

32 - Tech / Skilled Occs in Health

42 - Paraprof Occ's in Law / Social Services / Education / Religion

52 - Tech / Skilled Occ's in Art / Culture / Recr/Spo

62 - Skilled Sales & Service Occs

72-73 -72-73 -Trades & Trades & Skilled Skilled Transp & Transp & Equip Equip OperatorsOperators

82 - Skilled Occ's in Primary Industry

92 - Process 92 - Process / Manu / / Manu / Utilities Utilities Supervisors Supervisors & Skilled & Skilled OperatorsOperators

LEVEL CLEVEL Csecond second occ-occ-specific specific trainingtraining

14 - Clerical Occs

34 - Assisting Occ's in Support of Health Services

64 - Intermediate Sales & Service Occ’s

74– Interm. Occ's in Transp / Equip Operation / Install / Maint.

84 - 84 - Intermed Intermed Occ's in Occ's in Primary Primary IndustryIndustry

94-95 - 94-95 - Process & Process & Manu Manu Machine Machine Operators & Operators & AssembleAssemble

LEVEL DLEVEL DOn-the-On-the-job job trainingtraining

66 - Elemental Sales & Service Occ’s

76 - Trade 76 - Trade Helpers, Helpers, Construc. Construc. Labourers Labourers & Related& Related

86 - Primary Industry Labour

96 - 96 - Labourer in Labourer in Process, Process, Manu & Manu & UtilitiesUtilities

green: Above average = AAGR > 1.25% green: Above average = AAGR > 1.25% yellow: Average = 1.25% > AAGR > 0.3% yellow: Average = 1.25% > AAGR > 0.3% red: below average = AAGR < 0.3%red: below average = AAGR < 0.3%

NOC Matrix, Coloured by Projected Growth Rate, 2009-18

24

Replacement demand is primarily composed of retirements

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Deaths Emigration RetirementsProjection


Sources of Replacement Demand

25Sources: Statistics Canada and HRSDC, Policy Research Directorate, 2009 Reference Scenario.

The effect of the recent financial market shock on retirements will be transitory

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Actual2008 Projection2009 Projection

Projection

Retirements and the Impact of the 2008 Financial ShockThousands

26Sources: Statistics Canada and HRSDC, Policy Research Directorate, 2009 Reference Scenario.

The increased importance of retirements will persist in the long run

0

100

200

300

400

500

1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 2023 2027 2031 2035 2039 2043 2047 2051

30

35

40

45

50

55

Retirements

Share of Population 50+

Medium-term

scenario

Long-term

scenario

ThousandsRetirements and the Share of the Population Aged 50 and Over

Per cent

27

2.3% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.6%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

Management University Community

College

High School On-the-job

Training

Retirement Rate, Mean Employment Age and Median Retirement Age by Skill Level, 2009-2018

Retirement rates are less dispersed across skill groups than expansion demand…


Mean Emp. Age 45 42 39 41 35

Med. Ret. Age 62 61 61 61 63

Age Gap 17 19 22 20 28

28

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Management Skill Level A Skill Level B Skill Level C Skill Level D

Retirements by Skill Level , 2009-2018

…leading to job openings arising from retirements even in low-skilled occupations


Ret. Rate 2.3% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.6%

Retirements 371,200 623,500 1,073,600 887,200 259,500

29

-400,000

-300,000

-200,000

-100,000

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Expansion Demand

Replacement DemandProjec tion

Net impact of -17,000 jobs

Following the current recession, both expansion and replacement demand are expected to continue rising


Job Openings from Expansion Demand and Replacement Demand

30

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

In Out In Out

School Leavers

Immigrants

Other

School Leavers

Other

Retirements

Deaths

Emigrants

Immigrants

Retirements

Deaths

Labour force available to grow the economy

Labour force available to grow the economy

The increase of retirements will limit the labour force available to "grow the economy"

2009-2018


Labour Force Inflows and Outflows, 1999-2008 and 2009-2018

1999-2008

Labour Force Average Annual Growth:1.7% (259,000 people a year)

Labour Force Average Annual Growth:0.8% (141,000 people a year)

thousands

31

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

Management University College High School On-the-job

Training

Expansion Demand

Replacement (Retirements)

Replacement (Deaths and Emigration)

11.2%

22.7%

32.9%

25.6%

7.7%

Source: HRSDC, Policy Research Directorate, 2009 Reference Scenario.

Two-thirds of all job openings will be in occupations usually requiring PSE or in management occupations

Job Openings from Expansion Demand and Replacement Demand by Skill Level, 2009-2018

Thousands

32

15 Occupations with Higher Proportion of Job Openings

Non-student Employment 2008

(000s)

Job Openings2009-2018 (000s)

Job Openings as % of 2008

Employment (AR*)

All Occupations 15,765.7 5,269.3 3.3%

Legislators & Senior Management (N001) 75.8 51.1 6.7%

Health / Education / Social & Community Services Mgr's (N031) 95.4 59.2 6.2%

Nurse Supervisors & Registered Nurses (N315) 268.9 161.7 6.0%

Physicians / Dentists / Veterinarians (N311) 111.8 62.7 5.6%

Human Resources & Business Service Professionals (N112) 161.0 89.3 5.5%

Managers in Public Administration (N041) 28.9 15.9 5.5%

Psychologists / Social Workers / Clergy (N415) 134.2 67.6 5.0%

Other Tech. Occupations in Health (Except Dental) (N323) 118.3 59.0 5.0%

University Professors & Assistants (N412) 92.8 45.7 4.9%

Assisting Occupations in Health Services (N341) 283.3 138.1 4.9%

Pharmacists, Dietitians & Nutritionists (N313) 29.8 13.4 4.5%

Therapy & Assessment Professionals (N314) 47.5 21.1 4.4%

Engineering / Science / Information Systems Mgr's (N021) 80.4 34.4 4.3%

College & Other Vocational Instructors (N413) 91.4 39.0 4.3%

Life Science Professionals (N212) 24.2 10.2 4.2%

*AR: The annual job openings rate corresponds to the ratio of the average level of job openings over the projection period to the employment level in the base year (2008)Sources: Labour Force Survey, Statistics Canada; HRSDC, Policy Research Directorate, 2009 Reference Scenario.

Almost all occupations with highest labour demand will be in management or health sector

33

15 Occupations with Lowest Proportion of Job Openings

Non-student Employment 2008

(000s)

Job Openings2009-2018 (000s)

Job Openings as % of 2008

Employment (AR*)

All Occupations 15,765.7 5,269.3 3.3%

Trades Helpers & Labourers (N761) 115.5 12.0 1.0

Machine Operators: Fabric / Fur / Leather (N945) 34.3 3.7 1.1

Other Transport Equipment Operators (N743) 17.9 2.0 1.1

Machine Operators: Pulp & Paper Prod (N943) 44.7 5.1 1.1

Agriculture & Horticulture Workers (N843) 72.6 9.0 1.2

Logging & Forestry Workers (N842) 11.0 1.8 1.6

Carpenters & Cabinetmakers (N727) 166.4 29.6 1.8

Masonry & Plastering Trades (N728) 72.6 13.6 1.9

Machining / Metalworking / Woodworking Operators (N951) 99.3 18.6 1.9

Machinists & Related Occupations (N723) 61.8 11.8 1.9

Metal Forming / Shaping / Erecting Occupations (N726) 146.0 28.7 2.0

Other Construction Trades (N729) 94.6 18.7 2.0

Mine Service Workers & Operators in Oil (N841) 17.5 3.5 2.0

Logging Machinery Operators (N824) 10.1 2.1 2.0

Office Equipment Operators (N142) 62.0 12.6 2.0

*AR: The annual job openings rate corresponds to the ratio of the average level of job openings over the projection period to the employment level in the base year (2008)Sources: Labour Force Survey, Statistics Canada; HRSDC, Policy Research Directorate, 2009 Reference Scenario.

Occupations with lowest labour demand will be concentrated in manufacturing and construction

34

Replacement demand is expected to become the primary source of new job openings.

The need to replace existing workers will eat up 3/4 of new labour supply, constraining growth.

Recession impacts more low- than high-skilled jobs. However, this time high-skilled occupations were more affected than in the past, while low-skilled occupations were less impacted.

The recent recession will have short-term impacts, but over the medium-term labour constraints to growth are expected to return.

Two-thirds of job openings are expected to occur in high-skilled occupations, i.e. in occupations usually requiring PSE or in management occupations.

The occupations with the highest proportion of job openings are found in management and in the health sector.

Occupational Labour Demand – Key Messages

35

ANNEX – Definition of Industry Groupings

Manufacturing:

Low-exported oriented: Food and beverage products; Printing and related activities; Rubber, plastic and chemicals; Manufactured mineral products; Other manufacturing (textile, clothing, furniture)

High-exported oriented: Wood products; Paper; Metal fabrication and machinery; Computer, electronic and electrical products; Motor vehicles, trailers and parts; Other transportation equipment (aerospace, railroad, boats)

Commercial services:

Consumer-oriented: Retail trade; Wholesale trade; Transportation and warehousing; Accommodation and food services

Business-oriented: Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing; Professional business services; Computer system design; Other professional services (scientific and technical); Management, administrative and other support services; Information, culture and recreation; Other commercial services (repair, maintenance, personal and household services)

Documents

January 5, 2010 Policy Research Directorate, Strategic Policy and Research Branch