Jan15-Dec15... · Web viewNow, after over four decades of AMPS, after hundreds of thousands of face-to-face interviews, and after pioneering the use of CAPI and DS-CAPI in South Africa,

PRESS RELEASE

3 May 2016

saarf amps® dec 15

AMPS Dec 2015 marks the end of an era for the advertising, media and marketing industries. Since its first release in 1975, SAARF’s All Media and Products Survey (AMPS) has provided the media research currency that formed the backbone of the print industry, as well as data on all media consumption and audience demographics, access to services, information on over a thousand brands and products, and the much-relied-upon audience segmentation tool, the LSM or Living Standards Measure.

Now, after over four decades of AMPS, after hundreds of thousands of face-to-face interviews, and after pioneering the use of CAPI and DS-CAPI in South Africa, SAARF is releasing the final instalment of South Africa’s largest national survey after the SA Census.

A SNAPSHOT OF SOUTH AFRICA’S MEDIA ARENA

This final AMPS release shows print media in decline, due to a statistically significant drop in newspaper readership. Total print lost 489 000 readers over AMPS Jun 2015, mostly from the newspaper side, since magazines held their own over the previous period.

These AMPS Dec 2015 readership figures will serve the industry for the next 12-18 months, until a new replacement currency is launched.

Other media were relatively stable at the macro level. Despite a number of declines for individual channels, television in total remained stable. Radio too showed very little movement, save for various changes to the demographic makeup of several stations.

Three out-of-home formats showed statistically significant changes in exposure level, while internet usage continued to improve, and cinema remained in stasis.

AMPS

DEC

15

QU

ICK

FACT

S

TOTAL PRINT61.0%

TOTAL NEWSPAPERS

43.6%

TOTAL MAGAZINES

45.4%

TOTAL TV91.8% (p7d)

TOTAL RADIO91.5% (p7d)

OUT OF HOME1st: Street poles 60.8%2nd: Billboards 59.2%

3rd: Minibus taxis 58.9%

INTERNET USAGE43.2% (p7d)

CINEMA3.5% (up to 4

weeks)

SAARF AMPS Dec 15 April 2016 Page 1 of 15Results for January to December 2015

technical

FIELDWORK

AMPS Dec 2015 covers fieldwork done from January to December 2015.

The total sample size was 25 584 adults aged 15 years and older.

UNIVERSE SIZE

The population estimates used for AMPS Dec 2015 remain unchanged over AMPS Jun 2015: 38,259-million adults 15,686-million households

RELEASES COVERED BY THIS REPORT

Comparisons of results and trends are from three AMPS releases:

The current release, AMPS Dec 2015 (January to December 2015);

The previous release, AMPS Jun 2015 (July 2014 to June 2015); and

AMPS Dec 2014 (January to December 2014).

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

Only changes that are statistically significant after factoring in margin of error are quoted in this report.Any up or down arrows used represent statistically significant changes to audience levels.


demographics

LIVING STANDARDS MEASURE (LSMs)

QU

ICK

FACT

S LSMs remained stable

LSM 1-422.3%

LSM 5-753.2%

LSM 8-1024.5%

WORK STATUS

QU

ICK

FACT

S Unemployed: 29.9%

Working full-time: 28.6%

Working part-time: 8.0%

There were no changes to work status.


AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD INCOME

QU

ICK

FACT

S Average R11 277 per month per

household.

Zero to R10 999 per month:

66.9% of households

R10 000 plus: 33.1% of

households

Average household income increased from R11 017 to R11 277 per month, an increase of 2.4%.

The percentage of households which must survive month to month on less than R800 has remained unchanged at 1.7%. There was, however, a decline in the percentage of households in the R800-R1 399 bracket, which now represents 5.4% of households, down from 6.0% in AMPS Jun 15.

The R2 500-R4 999 bracket also declined, from 22.7% to 21.2%, while the R5 000-R7 999 swelled in size, as the percentage of households in this bracket rose from 17.1% to 18.2%.

No other income brackets showed change.

EDUCATION

QU

ICK

FACT

S

98.9% have basic literacy, 94.9% have functional

literacy.

49.8% have matric or higher

4.2% have a university degree

There were positive trends for education to matric and higher, with levels once again up. Almost half of all adults now have matric or a higher qualification, while 4.2% have completed a university degree, a figure which continues to trend up.


media

NB: Only changes that are statistically significant after factoring in margin of error are quoted in this report. Any up or down arrows used represent statistically significant changes to audience levels.

print

QU

ICK

FACT

S

TOTAL PRINT:61.0%

TOTAL NEWSPAPERS:

43.6%

TOTAL MAGAZINES:45.4%

Total print readership was not able to withstand the effects of the newspaper sector’s readership losses. While magazine readership remained stable, the decline of newspapers in general, driven by losses in the daily sector, contributed to the medium’s downward movement.

Print as a whole declined over the previous AMPS release, with average-issue readership reducing from 62.3% in the June 2015 release to 61.0% currently.

ACCESSING PRINT

Online/cellphone reading continues to grow in total, up from 9.0% a year ago (AMPS Dec 2014) to 11.7%. Currently, 5.3% of people read magazines or newspapers online, while 8.9% read them on their cellphones.


DECLINE IN THE WESTERN CAPE INVESTIGATED

In terms of demographic shifts, print’s losses came through particularly from the Western Cape (with readership declining from 74.8% to 69.5%) and Limpopo (from 45.9% to 38.2%).

On first analysis of this data, SAARF’s research contractor, Nielsen, initiated a double-check of all the production processes in the survey. This included reconstituting the final 12-month combined file from the individual 6-month components; re-checking all the demographic and weighting codes; and comparing average-issue readership manipulations for each publication back to the source CAPI interview data.

The weighting was also re-checked to ensure every respondent had a weight, that the populations for key weighting demographics matched the relevant IHS population estimates; and that the weighting factors for AMPS Dec 15 were similar to those in AMPS Jun 15.

No discrepancies were found in any of these processes.

Nielsen presented its report to the Publisher Research Council (PRC), following the print body’s queries into the decline of the Western Cape’s readership figures. This full report can be found on the SAARF website.

newspapers

QU

ICK

FACT

S TOTAL NEWSPAPERS:

43.6%

TOTAL DAILIES:25.5%

TOTAL WEEKLIES:28.6%

TOTAL MONTHLIES:2.4%

Total newspaper readership is down, although across 45 newspapers measured by AMPS, only three have declined significantly. The decline of this print sector was driven largely by the loss of readership in the dailies, as well as a general loss of readers in the Western Cape, Cape Town and Limpopo, as discussed above.

Currently, 16,664-million (43.6%) adults aged 15+ read a newspaper, down from 44.9% in AMPS Jun 2015.

DAILIES, WEEKLIES AND MONTHLIES

The daily newspaper sector suffered a decline over AMPS Jun 2015, with readership dropping from 27.3% to 25.5%: a loss of 701 000 readers, leaving 9,742-million. This decline was seen especially in the Western Cape (and Cape Town in particular) and Mpumalanga, with losses in both urban and rural areas. There were also fewer female readers, as well as fewer 25-34 year olds and readers in LSM 5-10.6-Day Dailies have been modelled in this release, please see the Addendum for clarity.

Weeklies remained stable with a readership of 28.6% or 10,945-million adults aged 15+, despite readership losses in the Western Cape and Limpopo.

Monthlies too remained stable; 2.4% of the adult population (15+) reads a monthly newspaper – a total of 934 000 people – with gains in KwaZulu-Natal.


http://www.saarf.co.za/

INDIVIDUAL NEWSPAPER RESULTS

National/multi-province newspapers

The only changes for this newspaper category were demographic in nature.

The Teacher grew its readership in KwaZulu-Natal. Vuk’uzenzele gained readers in large urban areas, and specifically in KwaZulu-Natal.

Newspapers for Gauteng and surrounds

Sunday World’s readership declined from 4.0% to 3.4%, an attrition of 215 000 readers leaving the paper with a total average-issue readership of 1,311-million. Reduced readership in rural areas, in Johannesburg and amongst males was behind this drop off.

KwaZulu-Natal newspapers

Isolezwe ngoMgqibelo (Saturday) lost readers in Durban.

Western Cape newspapers

Readership of the Cape Argus has declined from 358 000 in the previous AMPS release to 216 000 in AMPS Dec 2015. The newspaper now has an average-issue readership of 0.6%, down from 0.9% previously.

Losses in Cape Town, amongst female readers and in the 25-49 age group, were primarily behind this decline.

magazines

MAG

AZIN

E Q

UIC

K FA

CTS TOTAL CONSUMER

MAGAZINES:45.4%

TOTAL CONSUMER WEEKLIES:

23.4%

TOTAL CONSUMER FORTNIGHTLIES:

3.6%

TOTAL CONSUMER MONTHLIES:

33.6%

TOTAL CONSUMER ALTERNATE MONTHLIES:

4.7%

TOTAL CONSUMER QUARTERLIES:

1.3%

TOTAL SUBSCRIBER:

13.8%

TOTAL STORE MAGS:15.7%

Overall, the consumer magazine sector has maintained its total readership figure, with very little statistically significant movement coming through, with only two consumer titles losing readers in total, and


a general loss of readers in Limpopo and a rise in readership on the Vaal, movements which were not sufficient to affect the sector as a whole. Readership of Any Consumer Magazine is currently stable at 45.4%, with 17,360-million readers.

Shifting the focus from the medium as a whole to individual titles, stability is once again the operative word, with all but four titles maintaining the readership levels set in the previous AMPS release.

CONSUMER MAGAZINES

Any Weekly Magazine: stable, reaching 23.4% of the adult population. Total readership of this sector is 8.946-million.

Any Fortnightly Magazine is stable at 3.6% with 1,367-million readers.

Any Monthly Magazine is stable at 33.6% (12,866-million readers), despite losses in Limpopo.

Any Alternate Monthly is stable, reaching 4.7% of adults (1,789-million).

Gains in the 15-24 age group and amongst female readers were not enough to boost the Quarterly Magazine sector as a whole: stable at 1.3%, or 497 000 readers.

READERSHIP BY CONSUMER MAGAZINE CATEGORY

The top magazine category in terms of average-issue readership is family interest, which attracts 22.7% of adults, some 8,677-million readers.

The second biggest category is women’s magazines, with 6,886-million readers or 18.0%.

Entertainment magazines come a close third, with 6,550-million readers or 17.1% of the adult population.

Family-interest magazines

Drum lost readers in Limpopo and in the 15-24 age group.

There were ups and downs for Bona magazine, whose readership grew in KwaZulu-Natal, but declined in Limpopo.

Women’s general magazines

True Love lost 253 000 readers over AMPS Jun 2015. Its current readership of 1,958-million represents 5.1% of the adult (15+) population, down from 5.8% previously. This decline was fuelled in the main by losses of readers in large urban areas and female readers.

Large urban and Vaal audiences increased for Move!


Women’s Health grew its Durban audience.

Motoring magazines

Top Gear South Africa lost readers in Johannesburg.

SUBSCRIBER MAGAZINES

As it did in the previous AMPS release, readership of the DStv subscriber magazine declined over the previous AMPS release, as the title shed 654 000 readers, taking its average-issue readership from 15.3% to 13.6%, or 5,206-million. The magazine’s losses came from declines in Cape Town and Johannesburg, and in Gauteng and the North West.

Any Subscriber Magazine (excluding store magazines) subsequently declined from 15.5% to 13.8%, with losses in the same demographics as DStv magazine.

STORE MAGAZINES

With fewer readers in large urban areas, specifically in the Western Cape and Gauteng, and with fewer female and LSM 8-10 readers, average-issue readership declined for the store magazine sector, dropping from 16.9% to 15.7%.

Two store magazines showed changes in readership over AMPS Jun 15:

Sportsclub grew its readership to 0.6%, or 214 000 readers, compared to 0.4% and 167 000 readers in the previous AMPS.

Edgars Club/Klub showed a decline from 3.5% previously to 2.8% currently, losing 279 000 readers to give it a total readership of 1,075-million. The magazine was down in Gauteng.

Two more titles showed changes to their demographic profiles only:

Ackermans Club/Klub grew its readership base in small-urban and rural areas.

Jet Club has more readers in KwaZulu-Natal than previously.

television

Despite the decline in weekly viewership of three terrestrial TV channels, the total community TV sector, and a general loss of weekly viewers in the Western Cape, TV viewership in total remained stable at 91.8%.

In terms of how people access television, only a tiny percentage consume this medium online or over their cellphones: just 1.4%.


e.tv’s weekly viewing declined from 67.0% to 65.1%, driven largely by declines in large-urban audiences, particularly in the Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal. Declines were seen across both males and females, amongst 35+ readers, and in LSM 5+.

SABC 1’s weekly audience declined over the previous release: from 76.9% to 75.4%. Geographically, viewing was down in large urban areas and the Western Cape. In addition, weekly viewing was down for males, age 50+, and LSM 5+.

SABC 2 was down on AMPS Jun 2015, with its weekly audience declining from 72.1% to 70.4%, driven by losses in large urban areas, the Western Cape and Limpopo, female audiences, the 50+ age group, and LSM 5+.

The total Openview HD weekly audience rose over the previous survey. Audience numbers are now 195 000, or 0.5%, up from 0.2% previously. These gains came from all community sizes, from the Western Cape and North West, from both genders, and from 50+ and LSM 5-7.

Weekly audience levels for total community TV declined from 10.4% to 9.4%, due in part to losses in large urban areas, in female viewership, and in LSM 5-7.

Other channels/platforms remained stable with or without demographic shifts:

SABC 3’s weekly audience remained stable at 55.0%, despite declines in the Western Cape and in the LSM 8-10 demographic.

The seemingly constant rise of DStv seen over past years has ceased, with the platform now posting stable weekly audience figures – 39.9% – over the previous survey. (These figures include terrestrial and satellite viewing.)

M-Net main channel: stable at 6.0% (past 7 days).

Pay-TV service Starsat’s total weekly audience was stable at 0.6%.

radio

Radio has maintained its audience levels over the previous AMPS release, holding steady on 91.5% with 35,018-million listeners aged 15+. Commercial radio reaches 88.6% of adults or 33,911-million listeners, while community radio as a whole reaches 25.3% of adults (9,685-million).

In terms of demographics, radio in total, as well as commercial radio, showed an upward shift in KwaZulu-Natal, while community radio in total lost readers in LSM 5-7.

Listening to radio over cellphones continues to trend up; currently 41.7% of people listen on their phones, while 4.5% listen online via website or other app, and 0.2% listen on DStv’s audio channels.


The following radio stations showed changes to their audience profiles only:

94.7 Highveld Stereo lost listeners in LSM 1-4 across the week.

Capricorn FM lost weekly listeners in small-urban and rural areas and in the North West.

East Coast Radio saw declines in its weekly Eastern Cape audience.

Kfm (94.5 Kfm) has reduced weekly listenership in large urban areas and Gauteng.

Lesedi FM gained LSM 8-10 listeners across the week.

Ligwalagwala FM lost listeners in Limpopo (past 7 days).

Radio 2000 has more listeners in the Western Cape than it did in the previous release. It also has more listeners aged 35-49, and more LSM 8-10 listeners (past 7 days).

RSG lost listeners in the Western Cape across the week.

Smile 90.4 FM grew its large urban and LSM 8-10 audience (past 7 days).

Thobela FM has reduced levels of listeners in Mpumalanga (past 7 days).

Trufm grew its weekly audience in the Western Cape.

Ukhozi FM’s weekly Gauteng audience has declined.

Vuma 103 FM lost audience in KwaZulu-Natal across the week.


out of home

(All formats mentioned are those which carry advertising.)

The exposure levels of three out-of-home formats showed statistically significant changes over the previous AMPS release.

Bus shelters upped their

exposure from 26.9% to 28.2%.

Fewer adults were exposed to

advertising on litterbins: down from 41.5% to 40.2%.

Exposure to street pole

advertising is down, from 62.4% to 60.8.

The remaining out-of-home formats were stable.

cinema

No changes were seen in cinema attendance, across any time filter.


digital and cellphones

CELLPHONE ACCESS

Cellphone access is 88.9% in total. At 96.1%, LSM 8-10 has the highest access to cellphones, with LSM 5-7 at 89.5%, and LSM 1-4 at 79.7%.

Just over half of all adults have smartphones (51.1%), use of which has risen significantly in the upper LSMs. Currently, 80.6% of adults in LSM 8-10 use a smartphone, up from

77.8% previously, while 49.7% of LSM 5-7 use smartphones, followed by 21.8% of those in LSM 1-4.

The top cellphone make in South Africa is Nokia, which heads up the top-three list by a large margin. This brand is used by 41.4% of adults, although this figure has fallen over the previous AMPS release.

Second is Samsung at 21.3%, showing significant growth over the previous survey, while in third position is Blackberry at 9.7% following a significant decline.


INTERNET USAGE

Weekly internet usage has climbed from 41.7% to 43.2%: 16,526-million adults access the web during the average week.

Just over three quarters of adults in LSM 8-10 use the internet, up from 71.9% in the previous AMPS. Usage drops off sharply lower down the LSMs: 39.5% for LSM 5-7, and 16.9% for LSM 1-4.

Internet used “yesterday” was also up, from 32.3% to 34.0%.

Currently, 3,660-million households have a computer, translating into 23.3% of adults having access to a computer in the home. Laptops account for 18.5%, and 9.3% have a home desktop (incidence of which has declined). There has been significant growth for tablets in the home, rising from 7.0% to 8.9%.

TOP INTERNET ACTIVITIES

Using the internet (via cellphone or computer) for instant messaging and chats has grown significantly over the previous survey. This is currently the number one activity of 46% of South African adults when online.

Other activities which have shown growth are online gaming, downloading music, online banking, watching videos, and reading news or articles.

SOCIAL NETWORKING


14,042-million adults in South Africa use social media: that’s 37%. Of these, 13,449-million use Facebook while 4,030-million use Twitter.

Of interest to media owners is that almost one in three adults will actively engage with a medium because of a comment on Facebook, Twitter or Whatsapp. Almost half of all magazine readers (48%) use Facebook, and 15.6% use Twitter, while 43.7% of newspaper readers use Facebook and 15.3% use Twitter.

banking, retail and other facts

AMPS Dec 2015 does not just have media information on tap. It also has a wealth of other data on the behaviour and preferences of South Africa’s adults (15+).

ACCESS TO FINANCIAL ACCOUNTS

The majority of adults access their financial accounts via ATMs (63.4%), while 51.4% use the traditional route of going into the bank.

A further 23.7% access their accounts at supermarkets. Just under 17% use their cellphones and 7.7% use the internet to do their banking, while 9.7% use mobile ATMs or mobile branches.

One in five adults use services such as eWallet, CashSend and m-pesa.

BURIAL SOCIETIES

Almost a third of South Africans belong to a burial society (31%), and each month, 27% of the country’s adults attend a society meeting.

Limpopo has the highest incidence of burial society membership, with 46% of adults saying they’re part of a society. North West places second with 37%, followed by the Eastern Cape at 36% and the Western Cape at 33%.

To ensure they are able to fully cover the costs of a funeral, 22% of all society members have additional funeral insurance.


RETAIL IN SOUTH AFRICA

AMPS Dec 2015 shows that South Africa’s top retail store for food and grocery shoppers is Shoprite (27.1%), followed by Pick n Pay (17.1%) and Spar (14.7%). Shoprite also holds top position when it comes to toiletry shoppers (32.2%).

In terms of clothing shoppers, the top choice is Mr Price (16.2%), followed by Jet (13.7) (13.7%) and Edgars (10.6%).

18.6% of adults have a retail store loyalty card.

MODES OF TRANSPORT

Private transport and minibus taxis vie for top place when it comes to getting South Africans from A to B. Private vehicles are still most prevalent, used by 34.7% of adults, compared to minibus taxis used by 33.4%.

By comparison, the use of busses, trains and the Gautrain are significantly less: only 7.4%, 2.6% and 0.8% respectively.

There are 312 000 Gautrain commuters each week. The majority of these passengers are men (57.3%), and people aged 25-34 (42.6%).

Ends

ADDENDUM


New 6-Day Daily Newspaper Category

At the Print Council meeting of 9 October 2014, it was agreed to replace the separate measure for Monday-Friday and Saturday readership for Beeld, Die Burger, Pretoria News and Volksblad with a single Monday-Saturday measure.

This new 6-Day Daily Newspaper Category was introduced in the Jan-Jun 2015 AMPS® survey.

The 12-month Jul 14-Jun 15 release reflected only half the impact of the new measurement. The AIRs on the release for Beeld, Die Burger, Pretoria News and Volksblad were combinations of the 5-Day Daily (Mon-Fri) AIRs from the Jul-Dec 2014 database and the 6-Day Daily (Mon-Sat) AIRs calculated for the Jan-Jun 2015 database. Furthermore, the “Number of Issues” (B2) data for the 4 publications were not released on the AMPS® Jul 14-Jun 15 datafile. Here is a description of the AIR calculations:

The South African calculation of AIR is FRIPI – First Read in the Issue Period. The AIR is created in the analysis stage by grouping respondents. The difference in the creation of the AIR for the “5-Day Dailies plus separate Saturday publication” versus “6-Day Dailies” is as follows:

5-Day Daily AIR

For 5-Day Dailies, the AIR (first reading) pulls in “yesterday” for Tuesday to Saturday interviews, 2 day ago readership for Sunday interviews (to get back to the last weekday issue, being Friday), and 3 day ago readership for Monday interviews.

The separate weekend publication is measured as a “weekly”, and readership in the past week, for the first time, qualifies for AIR.

6-Day Daily AIR

The AIR (first reading) for 6-Day Dailies comprises “yesterday” readership for Tuesday to Sunday interviews, and 2 day ago readership for Monday interviews (to get back to the last of the 6-Day issues, being Saturday).

There is no separate Saturday measure for 6-Day Dailies.

Note that the AIR results for these 6-Day Dailies were therefore not comparable to their previous 5-Day Daily AIR figures – Figures were generally lower.

This latest AMPS® Jan 15-Dec 15 release would have included the first full 12 month measure of the 6-Day Daily newspaper category.

In this Jan-Dec 15 12-month release, 3 of the 4 new 6-Day Daily publications showed further declines.

At the SAARF Print Council Scrutiny meeting of 31st March 2016, Nielsen was asked to re-analyse the data for the 6-Day Dailies in an attempt to get closer to the previous 5-Day Daily readership levels for these affected publications. However, the change in the methodology restricts the analysis options that are available to the Research Contractor, as some of the data is now no longer separately measured for the Monday to Friday and Saturday editions.

With the data obtained in the survey, it is not possible to correctly split out the Saturday issue from the Monday to Friday issue.


However, Nielsen did identify several possible alternate analysis options for these 6-Day Dailies. One of these analysis options was considered an acceptable statistical solution by the Publisher Research Council (PRC).

Here is a description of this calculation, to be known as the new MDOW (Modelled Day of Week) calculation:

MDOW 6-DAY DAILY CALCULATION

1. The “First Read in Issue Period” criterion is dropped from the calculation of AIR for the 6-Day Dailies, as the question is only asked in restricted circumstances.

2. “Modelled” Monday-Friday readership is created according to “when last” the publication was last read as follows:

Day of Interview When Last1. Tuesday to

SaturdayYesterday

2. Sunday 2 Days ago3. Monday 3 Days ago

3. Additional Saturday readership is then pulled in:

Day of Interview When Last4. Sunday Yesterday5. Monday Yesterday, 2 Days

ago

4. Potential duplication is then removed for 6 out of 6 readers for Sunday 2 day ago and Monday 3 day ago respondents.

The result is “re-modelled” 6-Day Daily readership (MDOW) for each of the 4 publications, based on recency of reading.

The SAARF Board has approved this MDOW solution for the 6-Day Dailies, and the “re-modelled” AIR is released on the Jan-Dec 15 database for the following 4 publications:

BeeldPretoria NewsDie BurgerVolksblad

As First Reading is no longer in the calculation, the “First Reading” data (B4 and B5) for these publications has not been released on the database.


Documents

Jan15-Dec15... · Web viewNow, after over four decades of AMPS, after hundreds of thousands of face-to-face interviews, and after pioneering the use of CAPI and DS-CAPI in South Africa,