Changes in Storm Intensity in North Carolina

Jalen Heyward

Introduction to Storms Thunder storm- storm that produce lightning and thunder 2 major components precipitation and wind speed/ gusts Important for safety matters and agriculture

How has storm intensity changed throughout the years in North Carolina?

Motivation

$485 billion in damage from storms in General. (National Weather Service, 2011)

Storm intensity is important to know for our economy.

Hypothesis: If storm intensity changed through out the year then the intensity would increase

7 Weather Stations Stanly County Airport( KVUJ) Upper Piedmont Research stn (Reidsville, REID) Upper Mountain ResearchStn (Laurel springs,

LAUR) Bearwallow Mountain (Hendersonville, BEAR) Central Crops Research station(Clayton, CLAY) Pamlico Aquaculture Field Lab (Aurora, AURO) Border Belt Tobacco Res stn ( Whiteville, WHIT)

Materials

Ten years of data maximum wind speed maximum wind Gust total precipitation maximum precipitation

Procedure Collected data from the different stations Convert hourly data to daily data

Maximum wind speed, Maximum wind gust, maximum precipitation, Total precipitation.

Graphed each data sets in time Calculated coefficient of variance( R2), trend

Border Belt Tobacco Research Station (Whiteville)

12/6

/199

9

4/19

/200

1

9/1/

2002

1/14

/200

4

5/28

/200

5

10/1

0/20

06

2/22

/200

8

7/6/

2009

11/1

8/20

10

4/1/

2012

8/14

/201

30

5

10

15

20

25

30

f(x) = − 0.000257420893903545 x + 17.9030188107446R² = 0.00919978846981728

Maximum wind speed Whiteville

Date / Time

Max

imum

win

d sp

eed

Mph

Trend line decreases

Border Belt Tobacco Res station (Whiteville)

12/1

8/20

08

7/6/

2009

1/22

/201

0

8/10

/201

0

2/26

/201

1

9/14

/201

1

4/1/

2012

05

10152025303540

f(x) = 0.00157937521128374 x − 51.4520697654625R² = 0.00920843071222921

Maximum wind gust Whiteville

Date/ Time

Max

imum

win

d g

ust

(M

ph)

Trend line slightly increases

Border Belt Tobacco Res station (Whiteville)

12/6

/199

9

4/19

/200

1

9/1/

2002

1/14

/200

4

5/28

/200

5

10/1

0/20

06

2/22

/200

8

7/6/

2009

11/1

8/20

10

4/1/

2012

8/14

/201

30

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

f(x) = − 9.50652784346569E-06 x + 0.437958535116291R² = 0.00274584973842884

Maximum precipitation Whiteville

Date/ TimeMax

imum

pre

cipi

taio

n (i

n)

Trend Line 0 slope

Border Belt Tobacco Res station (Whiteville)

12/6

/199

9

4/19

/200

1

9/1/

2002

1/14

/200

4

5/28

/200

5

10/1

0/20

06

2/22

/200

8

7/6/

2009

11/1

8/20

10

4/1/

2012

8/14

/201

30

1

2

3

4

5

6

f(x) = − 2.17706853798823E-05 x + 0.982594344458623R² = 0.00391173076887896

Total precipitation Whiteville

Date/ Time

Tota

l pre

cipi

tati

on (

in)

Trend line slightly decreases

Bear wallow Mountain12

/6/1

999

4/19

/200

1

9/1/

2002

1/14

/200

4

5/28

/200

5

10/1

0/20

06

2/22

/200

8

7/6/

2009

11/1

8/20

10

4/1/

2012

8/14

/201

30

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

f(x) = 0.00488026574659175 x − 186.176515505939R² = 0.321723571865124

Maximum gusts

Date/ Time

Gus

ts M

ph

Trend line in-creases

Pamlico aquaculture field lab

10/1

4/20

09

1/22

/201

0

5/2/

2010

8/10

/201

0

11/1

8/20

10

2/26

/201

1

6/6/

2011

9/14

/201

1

12/2

3/20

11

4/1/

2012

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

f(x) = − 0.000698437852672271 x + 41.4174922294983R² = 0.000817860718698937

Maximum wind gust

Date / Time

Gus

t (m

ph)

Trend line slightly decreases

Summary of slopesVariableMax wind speed

Max precipitation

Total precipitation

Max wind gust

Stanly county airport -4.00E-05 2.00E-05 -1.00E-05 0Upper Piedmont Research stn (Reidsville)

-0.00000001 8.00E-05 0.001 0.0001 Upper Mountain research Stn (laurel Springs) -0.000001 7.00E-07 7.00E-06 -0.006Bearwallow Mountain (Hendersonville)

-0.000001 6.00E-06 2.00E-05 0.004Central Crops research stn (clayton) 9.00E-05 -2.00E-06 -4.00E-06 0.004Pamlico Aquaculture Field Lab (Aurora)

-0.0000001 -4.00E-06 -6.00E-06

-0.00000000

1Border Belt Tobacco Res stn ( whiteville)

-1E-11 -1.00E-05 -2.00E-05 0.001

Conclusion

Maximum Windspeed= Trend line Decrease

Maximum Precipitation= Trendline Increase

Total precipitation= Trendline decrease

Maximum Wind gust= Trend line increase Neither increasing or decreasing storm

intensity. Results don’t support hypothesis.

Future Work

Data = variable How Much money was involved? Look at surface analysis Reports of tornadoes, wind, and Hail Looking at a much longer period

Acknowledgements

Thank you to the NC State Climate office

Thank you Adrienne and the other mentors for mentoring me.