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Issues:Climate Change
Walter MendozaATREE
September 14, 2011
Equity
Modern Environment Movement
Silent Springby Rachel Carson
1962
Modern Environment Movement
United Nations Conference on the Human Environment Stockholm, Sweden, 1972
Modern Environment Movement
World Commission on
Environment and
Development (WCED)
1983
Modern Environment Movement
Our Common Future
1987
sustainable development
United Nations Conference on the Human Environment in Stockholm, Sweden, in 1972 United Nations Conference on the Human Environment in Stockholm, Sweden, in 1972 United Nations Conference on the Human Environment in Stockholm, Sweden, in 1972
Modern Environment Movement
"Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs."
Total and per capita emissions
8
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
191 countries have ratified the Convention
recognizes that the climate system is a shared resource
it is a Framework for Intergovernmental efforts to* gather and share information
greenhouse gas emissions, national policies and best practices
* launch national strategiesfor addressing greenhouse gas emissions and
adapting to expected impacts,* cooperate in preparing for adaptation
to the impacts of climate changeincluding the provision of financial and technological support
to developing countries
Basis
• Industrial countries responsible for Climate change phenomenon. Over 80% of C02 emissions in the atmosphere for the last 150 years have come from richer countries
COP1 -The Berlin Mandate 1995
Common but Differentiated responsibilities
Developing countries refused to take up binding commitments
Two year Analytical and Assessment Phase (AAP)
to address the original goal of the convention - to stabilize GHG emissions by Annex 1 countries at 1990 levels by
2000
The Kyoto Protocol
It is a protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeThe Kyoto Protocol is a legally binding agreement
under which industrialized countries will reduce their collective
emissions of greenhouse gasesby 5.2% compared to the year 1990
calculated as an average over the five-year period of 2008-12
The Kyoto Protocol entered into force on 16 February 2005.
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0.1
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19.2420.14
1.94 2.07
10.24
16.44
9.55
11.88
0.28
9.56
20.24
0.28
4.07
1.07
9.65 9.37
0.46
4.37
2.00
World average 4 tonnes per person per yearCan sustain 2 tonnes per person per year
As is GHG dumping
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0.1
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19.2420.14
1.94 2.07
10.24
16.44
9.55
11.88
0.28
9.56
20.24
0.28
4.07
1.07
9.65 9.37
0.46
4.37
2.00
Per capita
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Ke
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So
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Afr
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Ta
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nia
Au
stra
lia
Ba
ng
lad
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Ch
ina
Ind
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Jap
an
Ne
pa
l
Ne
w Z
ea
lan
d
Va
nu
atu
0.1
1
0.1
1
19.2420.14
1.94 2.07
10.24
16.44
9.55
11.88
0.28
9.56
20.24
0.28
4.07
1.07
9.65 9.37
0.46
4.37
2.00
contraction
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So
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Afr
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Ta
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Au
stra
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Ba
ng
lad
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Ch
ina
Ind
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Jap
an
Ne
pa
l
Ne
w Z
ea
lan
d
Va
nu
atu
0.1
1
0.1
1
19.2420.14
1.94 2.07
10.24
16.44
9.55
11.88
0.28
9.56
20.24
0.28
4.07
1.07
9.65 9.37
0.46
4.37
2.00
convergence
CDMs
The
Clean
Development
Mechanism
CDMs
Arrangement
under
the
Kyoto Protocol
1997
CDMs
Allows industrialised countries
to invest in projects
that reduce emissions
in developing countries
CDMs
supervised by
CDM Executive Board (CDM EB) under the guidance of the
Conference of the Parties (COP/MOP) of the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC)
United Nations Conference on the Human Environment in Stockholm, Sweden, in 1972 United Nations Conference on the Human Environment in Stockholm, Sweden, in 1972 United Nations Conference on the Human Environment in Stockholm, Sweden, in 1972
CDMs
Should be
"supplemental" to
domestic actions
to reduce emissions
CDMs
consent of
developing country
hosting the project
it will contribute to
sustainable development
CDMs
using methodologies
approved by
the CDM Executive Board (EB)
establish additionality
establish a baseline
CDMs
Certified Emission Reductions (CERs)
carbon credits
one metric tonne of CO2e
CDMs
validation
&
verification
by Designated Operational Entity
(DOE)
monitoring
Critics of the CDM • in many cases, the recipients are large,
polluting industries
• adverse environmental impacts to the communities
• Chhattisgarh - Jindal Steel and Power Limited’s notoriously polluting sponge-iron factories
• earning enormous amounts of money & environmental credibility with four separate CDM projects
http://withoutyourwalls.wordpress.com/2008/08/17/carbon-trade-off/
Hidden issues
• Industrial countries responsible for Climate change phenomenon. Over 80% of C02 emissions in the atmosphere for the last 150 years have come from richer countries
• Elephant in the room
increased CO2 likely from newly industrialised countries
population!
The Discord
The Discord
Equity remains an ongoing struggle
Development
Development not to mean growth, but to mean how to ensure that all people have equitable:
- access to energy and other natural resources
– consumption levels of energy and other natural resources
– participation levels in decision making over all issues related to energy and natural resources,
in such a manner that the eco-footprint for earth as a whole, and its various geographic regions, do not exceed their bio-capacities.
Technology the answer?
1. Need to cut emissions by 80% by 2050;2. Need to peak emissions by 2015 and then cut3. New (zero-fossil) technologies are not
competitive or limited4. Will not work without changes in consumption.
Have to reduce and have to change the way we do business
Business as usual will not work. No soft answers will
work
Not a green ‘party’ but a green ‘revolution’ needed
The Hidden hand
The Corporation!
It is an entity!
It has the rights of an individual
But the power, the benefits, and the freedom go to the individuals behind these entities
Role of Civil Society
today there is a divide:
International NGOs vs Third World NGOs
Policy / Advocacy NGOs vis a vis Grassroots
38
Income and Capacity income distributions (relative to a “development threshold”)
Historical Contribution to Carbon Stock
• From 1850 – 2009 331 GtC
• From 1970 – 2009 226 GtC
Contribution to Stock - 1850-2000
(GtC)
Contribution to Stock - 2001-2009
(GtC)
Contribution to Stock - 1850-2009
(GtC)
Annex-I 210 35 245
Non-Annex-I 55 31 86
Total 265 66 331
Entitlements to Total Carbon Space (1850-2050)?
Carbon Space Entitlements
• Per Capita Principle – Entitlements proportionate to % of World Population
% of World Population 1850 1900 1970 2000 2009
USA 1.8% 4.8% 5.7% 4.7% 4.6%
EU 13.0% 14.8% 11.8% 7.9% 7.2%
Other Annex-I 12.0% 15.8% 10.3% 7.7% 6.9%
China 32.3% 25.3% 22.1% 20.7% 19.6%
India 18.5% 18.0% 15.0% 17.0% 17.4%
Brazil 0.6% 1.1% 2.6% 2.8% 2.8%
South Africa 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7%
Rest of the World 21.6% 19.8% 31.9% 38.4% 40.8%
Carbon Budget for the future
• 326 GtC 50% probability of exceeding 2 deg C.• 207 GtC 25% probability of exceeding 2 deg. C.
Entitlements - 1850-2050 (%)
Entitlements - 1850-2050 (GtC)
Contribution to Stock - 1850-2009
(GtC)
Future Entitlements - 2010-2050
(GtC)
Annex-I 20% 133 245 -112
Non-Annex-I 80% 525 86 438
Actual Carbon Space vs. Entitlement
1850 Basis, Non-LUCF
Future Entitlements - 2010-2050 (GtC)
Potential Actual Share- 2010-2050 (TISS-DSF
Model)
Annex-I -112.02 50.18
Non-Annex-I 438.27 271.13
Total 326 321
Loss of entitlement can be compensated through technology and financial transfers
Rio + 20: Green Economy
Shift of focus from:Implementation FinanceTechnology and tradeEmerging issues:
food security
Rio + 20: Green Economy
3 kinds of problems:
Protection from third world imports
New conditions, standards on ‘aid’
Green economy goals: milestones on biodiversity and conservation
Institutional Framework
Shift focus to:
World Environment Organisation
(enviro focus)
World Commission on Sus Dev
Green Development Fundenviro, econ & social focus)
Demand – Supply Scenario (Electricity)
• Quick addition of low-cost coal essential considering the financial situation of the DISCOMs and to reduce tariffs (e.g. industrial tariffs 50% higher than in US, China)
• Urgent attention, structural provisions for reliable supply to poor is required: – can be met at limited C emissions, is more of an
Institutional issue (Might need to earmark low cost energy for poor)
– Large grid extension underway (RGGVY) and access improving quickly, supply situation getting better.
Development, Energy, and Climate
• BAU is impractical and unsustainable. (Land, water, fuel, climate, etc)
• Era of cheap energy is over - need to be much more efficient while building infrastructure / industrialization. Relook future type of industrialisation (development paradigm)
• Transport (avoid shift and improve) net oil import bill is 4% of GDP, largely in sync with climate and local social and pollution strategies.
• More electricity needed, but – Immediate attention to needs of poor– Earnest action for EE (> than gas, nuclear, hydro put together)– Incentivize energy saving devices and disincentivize high consuming energy use. (tariff policy)
– Long term planning for greater role of Renewables. Focused effort on reducing RE costs & manufacturing; R&D.
Once upon a time
planetary boundaries
1 Climate change2 Biodiversity loss3 Biogeochemical4 Ocean acidification5 Land use6 Freshwater7 Ozone depletion8 Atmospheric aerosols9 Chemical pollution
He said
There is enough
for everyone’s NEED
but NOT
for Everyone’s GREED
Thank You for
listening
