ISSUES SURROUNDING ALASKA’S SENIORS a preliminary look

ISSUES SURROUNDING ISSUES SURROUNDING ALASKA’S SENIORSALASKA’S SENIORS

a preliminary looka preliminary look

Scott Goldsmith

Institute of Social and Economic Research

University of Alaska Anchorage

ISER Brown Bag Lunch

February 2, 2006

Anchorage, Alaska

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

ALASKA SENIORS: Preliminary Look

ALASKA COMMISSION ON AGING

UNDERSTANDING ALASKA

TOPICSTOPICS


WHO ARE ALASKA’S SENIORS

PROJECTING THE SENIOR POPULATION

RETIREES AS AN ECONOMIC ENTERPRISE


Smallest Percentage (5.7%),

but Growing Fast (59.7%).

Table V.1. Alaska Senior Population

Near Old (60-64)

Young Old (65-74)

Old (75-84)

Old–Old (85+)

Total 60+

Total 65+

1950 2,735 3,414 7,477 4,742 1960 3,200 3,748 1,380 313 8,641 5,441 1970 5,157 4,775 1,441 499 11,872 6,715 1980 8,348 7,947 2,655 557 19,507 11,159 1990 12,897 15,548 5,570 1,251 35,266 22,369 2000 17,327 22,507 10,558 2,634 53,026 35699 2004 23,365 25,262 12,723 3,597 64,947 41,582

Source: Alaska Department of Labor 2004, US Census for earlier years,


Table V.24. Households Containing Seniors 65+

Households Seniors 65+ Seniors per Household

Householder 65+ 22,879 30,238 1.32 Householder Under 65 3,825 4,059 1.06

Total 26,704 34,297 1.28 Share Under 65 14.3% 11.8% Source: IPUMS, based on sample data.

LIVING ARRANGEMENTS OF SENIORS


SHARES 65+ Male Female Total

Living with spouse/partner 64.4% 37.3% 49.9%

Living Alone 17.6% 31.5% 25.0%

Householder, no spouse 6.9% 13.2% 10.3%

Not householder, no spouse 7.1% 12.3% 9.9%

Institutionalized 2.0% 3.2% 2.6%

Other group quarters 2.0% 2.5% 2.2%

Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%


Table V.#. Poverty Rates for Persons

Alaska US

Percent US Higher

TOTAL 9% 12% 32%

<5 14% 18% 30%

5 13% 18% 38%

6-11 12% 17% 41%

12-17 10% 15% 49%

18-64 8% 11% 31%

65 to 74 6% 8% 46%

75+ 8% 12% 36%

65+ 7% 10% 45%

Source: U.S. Census, P87, SF3.


1999 Census Bureau Poverty Threshold (used for 2000 Census)

Persons in Family

Unit Under 65

65 and Over

All Households

1 $8,667 $7,990 2 $11,156 $10,070 3 $13,290 4 $17,029 5 $20,127 6 $22,727 7 $25,914 8 $28,967

9+ $34,417 Source: US Census Note: Persons are all adults. Thresholds for households with children are slightly higher.

POVERTY MEASUREMENT ISSUES


COST OF LIVING

EQUIVALENCE SCALES

REQUIREMENTSHealth Care (MOOP)

RESOURCESIn-Kind Payments--MedicareHome OwnershipTaxes


Table V.35. Alaska Median Household Income for Households Headed by Senior 65+ (2004 $)

1980 1990 2000 2004(ACS) Family Household $38,259 $49,250 $55,459 $53,698

Married Couple Family $41,881 $52,663 $57,505 $61,833 Female householder, no husband present

$23,586 $37,050 $45,552 $48,124

Male householder, no wife present

$15,402 $46,958 $49,859 $29,382

Non-Family Household $16,518 $20,177 $22,076 $23,708 Living Alone $15,109 $19,008 $20,999 $22,796

Male $19,496 $18,803 $23,691 $21,682 Female $12,805 $19,663 $20,245 $23,809

Living with Others na Na na Na Total $27,244 $35,299 $41,460 $42,957 Anchorage cpi-u 77.6 118.6 150.9 162.5 Source: iPUMS, American Community Survey, and ISER.


Table V.40. Median Household Income for Households Headed by Senior 65+

Ratio of Alaska to US (COLA Adjusted) 1980 1990 2000 2004

Family Household 1.22 1.24 1.19 1.19 Married Couple Family 1.33 1.30 1.20 1.33 Female householder, no husband present

0.77 1.05 1.13 1.23


0.45 1.14 1.02 0.63

Non-Family Household 1.35 1.33 1.15 1.29 Living Alone 1.25 1.29 1.13 1.27

Male 1.42 1.01 1.05 0.99 Female 1.10 1.41 1.15 1.41

Living with Others na na na na Total 1.28 1.32 1.28 1.40 Source: iPUMS, American Community Survey, and ISER.


Table V.37. Median Household Income for Households Ratio of Alaska Seniors to Non-Seniors

1980 1990 2000 2004(ACS) Family Household 0.62 0.74 0.83 0.76

Married Couple Family 0.63 0.73 0.76 0.78 Female householder, no husband present

0.81 1.24 1.33 1.21


0.26 0.85 0.98 0.47

Non-Family Household 0.43 0.48 0.56 0.63 Living Alone 0.47 0.51 0.63 0.71

Male 0.52 0.47 0.69 0.56 Female 0.44 0.60 0.62 0.78

Living with Others na na na na Total 0.50 0.61 0.72 0.71 Source: ISER


Table V.49. Distribution of Income of Alaska Households Headed by Seniors 65+

Householder 65 to 74

House- holder

75+ Total

Cumulative Total

Share of Households

Cumulative Share

Total Households 14,199 8,222 22,421 Less than $10,000 1,030 781 1,811 1,811 8% 8% $10,000 to $14,999 1,368 884 2,252 4,063 10% 18% $15,000 to $19,999 1,197 925 2,122 6,185 9% 28% $20,000 to $24,999 957 701 1,658 7,843 7% 35% $25,000 to $29,999 870 576 1,446 9,289 6% 41% Source: U.S. Census IPUMS


60 to 64

65 to 74

75 to 84

85+ 60+ 65+

Total Population 16,901 21,563 10,313 2,900 51,677 34,776 Earnings from work 10,297 6,115 1,341 179 17,932 7,635 Wages Only 8,287 4,414 850 151 13,702 5,415 Wages + Business inc or loss

683 529 92 0 1,304 621

Business Inc or Loss, only

1,327 1,172 399 28 2,926 1,599

No earnings from Work

6,604 15,448 8,972 2,721 33,745 27,141

Shares Earnings from work 60.9% 28.4% 13.0% 6.2% 34.7% 22.0% No earnings 39.1% 71.6% 87.0% 93.8% 65.3% 78.0%

Source: US Census, IPUMS.

WORKING SENIORS


All Seniors 65+ $29,568

Earnings from Work $45,209

No Earnings from Work $24,878

No Social Security Income $27,628

No Retirement Income $21,909

SENIOR PER CAPITA INCOME


Table V. #. National Share of Seniors Who Volunteer Activity Seniors 65-74 Seniors 75+ Formal & Informal Volunteering 25% 32% Working & Volunteering 12% 4% Caregiving & Volunteering 17% 9% Working, Caregiving & Volunteering 9% 2% TOTAL 65% 47% Source: Perspectives on Productive Aging, The Urban Institute, July 2005.


Table V. #. National Share of Seniors Who Are Caregivers Activity Seniors 65-74 Seniors 75+ Caregiving Only 9% 8% Working & Caregiving 3% 1% Volunteering & Caregiving 17% 9% Working, Volunteering, & Caregiving 9% 2% TOTAL 38% 20% Source: Perspectives on Productive Aging, The Urban Institute, July 2005.

PROJECTING THE SENIOR PROJECTING THE SENIOR POPULATIONPOPULATION


Growth in the number of Alaska seniors depends on:

the current size of the older adult population (primarily baby boomers who in 2011 will range in age from 46 to 65),

life expectancy at age 65, and

migration patterns of older adults and the senior population.

Alaska Baby Boomers will Drive Alaska Baby Boomers will Drive Growth in Senior PopulationGrowth in Senior Population

ALASKA SENIORS: Preliminary

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1000.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

ALASKA

US

ALASKA AGE DISTRIBUTION IN 2000

BB were born between 1946 and 1964. In 2000 they ranged in age from 36 to 54.

The US Senior Population Depends The US Senior Population Depends on the Trend in Life Expectancy at 65on the Trend in Life Expectancy at 65


LIFE EXPECTANCY AT AGE 65: US AVG

0

24

6

8

1012

14

1618

20

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2002

The Oldest Seniors Are Most Likely The Oldest Seniors Are Most Likely to Stayto Stay


ALASKA MIGRATION FROM 1995 TO 2000INMIGRATION AND OUTMIGRATION BY AGE

65-74 75-84 85+ TOTAL

IN 1,315 778 313 2,406OUT 2,690 989 155 3,834NET -1,375 -211 158 -1,428

RATIO OUT TO IN 105% 27% -50% 59%

Senior Population Growth Rate Senior Population Growth Rate Projected to be 4 PercentProjected to be 4 Percent


TOTAL <5 5-19 20-64 65+ 65-74 75-84 85+0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

AK POPULATIONAVG ANNUAL GROWTH RATE

2005-2030

Projected Alaska Population Projected Alaska Population GrowthGrowth


<5 5-19 20-64 65+(5)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

(5)

0

5

10

15

20

25

3000-0505-1010-1515-2020-2525-30

AK POPULATION GROWTH (000)BY AGE IN 5 YEAR INTERVALS

Projected Alaska Senior GrowthProjected Alaska Senior Growth


65-74 75-84 85+0

2

4

6

8

10

0

2

4

6

8

10

00-0505-1010-1515-2020-2525-30

AK SENIOR POPULATION GROWTH (000)BY AGE IN 5 YEAR INTERVALS

3 Different Alaska Senior 3 Different Alaska Senior Population Projections: 2030 (000)Population Projections: 2030 (000)


ISER US CENSUS ADOL*

TOTAL 877 868 802

>65 114 127 138

65-74 62 64 77

75-84 37 45 47

85+ 15 18 14

SENIOR SHARE

13.0% 14.7% 17.2%

* ADOL Projection is for 2029

Perspectives on the Senior Perspectives on the Senior Population: Today and TomorrowPopulation: Today and Tomorrow


US 2000 12.4%

Florida (#1) 2000 17.6%

Alaska (#50) 2000 5.7%

US 2030 19.7%

Florida (#1) 2030 27.1%

Alaska (#49*) 2030 14.7%

* Utah projected to be #50

Rapid Growth Causes the Senior Rapid Growth Causes the Senior Share of the Population to JumpShare of the Population to Jump


Older Population by Age: 1900-2050 - Percent 65+ and 85+

0

5

10

15

20

25

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

% 85+ % 65+

AK % 65+ AK %85+

The Senior Growth Rate Will be The Senior Growth Rate Will be Especially Fast in 3 StatesEspecially Fast in 3 States


PROJECTED % INCREASE IN SENIORS, 2005 - 2030

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

.Nevada

STATE

←Nevada, Alaska, and Arizona are the top 3 states

RETIREES AS AN RETIREES AS AN ECONOMIC ENTERPRISEECONOMIC ENTERPRISE


The 52 thousand retired Alaska seniors, aged 60+, directly contributed $1.626 billion to the Alaska economy by their presence (measured in 2004), or $31 thousand per retiree. This is an estimate of the cash flow that would disappear from the state with the disappearance of Alaska seniors 60+ who are retired.


Table II.1. Cash Flow to Alaska from Senior 60+ Retiree Income 2004 (million $)

TOTAL $1,262

Federal $720

Social Security $423

Federal Civilian Retirement $156

Federal Military Retirement $87

Veteran Compensation $55

State-Local $263

Public Employee Retirement System (PERS)

$147

Teachers’ Retirement System (TRS)

$112

Judiciary, National Guard, Railroad, etc. Retirement $3

Private Pensions $120

Private Investment Income $160 Source: ISER


Table II.2. Cash Flow to Alaska from Spending for Health Care for Senior Retirees 60+ in 2004 (million $)

TOTAL $336

Medicare $168

Federal Share of Medicaid $82 Nursing Homes $24 Waivers $14

Personal Care $17 Dual Eligibles $28

State Public Employee $44

Federal Public Employee $24 Private Retirement Plan Insurance

$19

Source: ISER.

INDUSTRY INDUSTRY CHARACTERISTICSCHARACTERISTICS


Diverse Job MixYear Round EmploymentStableEnvironmentally BenignLocal SpendingCompatibilityNon-EnclaveStable Potential Tax BaseEconomies of Scale

Demand on Scarce Resources

STATE REVENUES AND STATE REVENUES AND EXPENDITURES EXPENDITURES


The average adult citizen, and the average senior citizen, pays roughly $500 in taxes and fees into the state General Fund each year.

In return the average adult receives about $5,000 in state services funded out of the General Fund.

The average senior receives services, both those targeted toward seniors and those that benefit all residents, that cost $4,000.

ISSUES SURROUNDING ISSUES SURROUNDING ALASKA’S SENIORSALASKA’S SENIORS

a preliminary looka preliminary lookFor additional information on this and other topics related to Alaska’s economy:

www.alaskaneconomy.uaa.alaska.edu

www.iser.uaa.alaska.edu

Documents

ISSUES SURROUNDING ALASKA’S SENIORS a preliminary look