Issue 9: Modelling and ocean accounts - UN ESCAP · Marine and Coastal Values Database for the Bismarck Sea, PNG Modelling for Management: News from Ningaloo • Framework to value

https://www.unescap.org/events/asia-and-pacific-regional-expert-workshop-ocean-accounts1 The Ocean Accounts

Issue 9: Modelling and ocean accounts

Andy Steven, CSIRO Australia

[email protected]


What is (ocean) modelling?

• Any quantitative or qualitative approach used in the absence of measured data.• Data-sparse to Data-rich• Simple to complex• Cellular to Global• Static to dynamic

• Extrapolation and interpolation• In space- areas with no data• in time - forecasting

• The use of Proxies• Chorophyll as nutrient status• Travel cost methods

https://www.unescap.org/events/asia-and-pacific-regional-expert-workshop-ocean-accounts3

Key Concepts• Scaling:

• global ->regional -> local• Different grid sizes and configurations• Nesting of models, via downscaling

• Forcing • Oceans and atmosphere• Catchment inputs• Simple parametrization to coupled models

• Model Skill and Uncertainty• Calibration • Ongoing validation• Assimilation improves skill

• Modalities• Hindcast• Near Real-time• Forecasting – daily, seasonal, decadal• Scenarios

The Ocean Accounts

Models: Diversity of approaches

Christensen & Walters 2004, Travers et al 2008, Fulton 2010, Dunstan & Foster 2011, Blanchard et al 2017, Anthony et al 2013, WWF

Size basedSpecies distributions Trophic

Agent based & hybrid modelsBayesian networks

Spatially Explicit

Fulton and Gorton 2014

Systems View

Biophysical

Food web

Oceanography& geochemical

Climate

Industries, coastal landuse, outfalls

Transport

Benefits, costs & markets Social networks, culture

and employment

Social & Economics

Lobby groups

Decision rules

Management actions

Fisheries & Aquaculture

Administration

Industry statisticsSampling

Evaluation


Management Strategy Evaluation

Decision Table

Management strategyO

bje

ctiv

es

Catch

Monitoring & industry data

Assessment

Quota setting & management

Fish stocks

Fishing fleet

Year

Bio

mas

s

ResultsModel

Option 1

Option 2

Ranked

results

Define the

objectives

Regional multi-sector planning & management

▪Undertaken to address potential issues of conflict amongst resource users, cumulative impact and social license, as well as opportunities for integration of industries

|

Component Models

Discovery

External data inputsStreamflow Catchment data Access-A OceanMAPS

Op

erat

ing

fram

ewo

rkV

alidatio

n &

verification

system

Relocatable coastal modelsOcean Colour

ANN

ALMI

Regional models

BoM forecast products

Catchment models

Tech

nic

al

inte

rop

erab

ility

(sta

nd

ard

s, f

orm

ats)

Org

anis

atio

nal

in

tero

per

abili

tyLe

gal i

nte

rop

erab

ility

(S

LAs)

Sem

anti

c in

tero

per

abili

ty

(vo

cab

ula

ries

)

Valid

ation

Mo

del verificatio

nD

ata verification

ServicesScenarios

land practice change

climate change

Reporting

Compliance & assessment

Reef Report Card

Incident response

oil spills

maritime

Forecasting

floods/storms

bleaching events

safe navigation

Concept of an operational Information System


Earth and Climate System Models

The Ocean Accounts

• Spatially and temporally

coarse

• Based on a hindcast to

nowcast of conditions

• Often used for long term

projections based on

scenario perturbatons

• Increasingly used for

climate Projections being

developed

• Downscaled as boundary

conditions to regional

models


ACCESS-CM2: Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) Global Climate Model

The Ocean Accounts

ACCESS Coupled Climate Modelling system

CouplerOASIS3-MCT

Ocean and sea-ice

AtmosphereMet Office

UM10.6/GA7.1

Ocean and sea-ice

MOM5 and CICE5Ocean component grid and bathymetry (showing every 4th grid row zonally and meridionally).

Atmospheric/land resolution

• 1.25° N/S; 1.875° E/W (“N96”)

• 80 levels vertically

ACCESS-OM (MOM5 + CICE5) 360x300x50 Levels IPCC class ocean model

Comparison of ocean

currents in the 2060s with

the 1990s, Sun et al 2012


Regional Biophysical Models

The Ocean Accounts


Species Distribution Models

The Ocean Accounts

Observations

Environmental conditions

Final habitat map

Statistical model


Global Fisheries changes

The Ocean Accounts

Worm et al 2009Cheung et al 2016

www.ecopath.org

Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE)

Ecosystem Models

• Food web (trophic) connections

• Biomass flows through web


Ecosystem Models

The Ocean Accounts

Levels Scientific AdviceManagement

Framework

Single

species

Ecosystem

Approach to

Fisheries

Ecosystem-

based fisheries

management

Ecosystem-

based

management

Manage-

ment Plan

Manage-

ment Plan

Integrated

evaluation

Plan of

the region

Climate Habitat Predadors

Climate Habitat Predators

Fisheries Development Energy

Water Dredging Sanctuaries Aquaculture Etc.

Eco-tourism Petroleum & gas


Simplifying Models

The Ocean Accounts

Recruitment

Food and Habitat

Models Intermediate Complexity

of Ecosystems

Minimum set of important

processes

Describe focus species and

drivers only

Size based models

• Simplify model using size-

based interactions

Fulton et al., 2010. Journal of Marine Systems

Types of ecosystem models

CSIRO Ecosystem Based Management Toolkits

Whole of SystemModels (Atlantis)

Focused SystemModels (MICE)

Ecological RiskAssessment


The Ocean Health Index

The Ocean Accounts

http://www.oceanhealthindex.org


Marine and Coastal Values Database for the Bismarck Sea, PNG

Modelling for Management: News from Ningaloo

• Framework to value

ecosystem features and

cultural assets

• 4 value categories and 18

value types

• values data represented

spatially by linking to

ecosystem

• provides the basis for

determining interaction of

values with pressures for

spatial planning.

•

“The results of the eReefs research will significantly transform our ability to manage and protect the Great Barrier Reef and assist in its long-term preservation.”

$80.8 million worth of

benefits to 2025-26benefit-cost ratio of over 10

eReefs: Transforming Management of the GBR

Informing Reef 2050 Plan

BoM Marine Water Quality Dashboard

Model – generated map of the aragonite saturation in the vicinity of 3,581 reefs of the GBR.

It is impossible to observe a at all reefs, but critical for optimal management.

a +/- 0.23

Berkelmans et al. (2002, 2004); Hoegh-Guldberg (1999).

Reef Carbon Chemistry


Dissolved Inorganic Nitrogen

Surface

31m

60m

1. river input2. ocean

currents3. reef/island

mixing

Coral Bleaching

Coastal Water Quality Monitoring | Jonathan Hodge26 |


Coral Bleaching

Salinity distribution

Tropical cyclone Yasi 2011

MODIS true color, 2 Feb 2011

Assessing compliance

Model

simulations

% of anthropogenic

suspended sediment loads

removed from river loads

% of anthropogenic

nutrient loads removed

from river loads

Current-day 0 % 0 %

Scenario 1 10.1 % 40.5 %

Scenario 2 21.3 % 52.4 %

Scenario 3 32.6 % 64.3 %

Scenario 4 43.8 % 76.2 %

Pre-industrial 100 % 100 %

Pre-industrial Current (2011)

Sensitivity of GBR water quality indicators to catchment loads

Simulation Dates Season REGION

Offshore waters Mid-shelf waters Inshore waters

Cape

york

Wet

Tropics Burdekin

Mackay-

Whitsun

day Fitzroy

Burnett-

Mary

Cape

york

Wet

Tropics Burdekin

Mackay-

Whitsun

day Fitzroy

Burnett-

Mary

Cape

york

Wet

Tropics Burdekin

Mackay-

Whitsun

day Fitzroy

Burnett-

Mary

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 10 12 14 16 7 9 11 13 15 17

Preindustrial Jan2011 - April 2011 wet

Current day Jan2011 - April 2011 wet

Preindustrial May 2011 - Oct 2011 dry

Current day May 2011- Oct 2011 dry

Preindustrial Nov 2012 - April 2013 wet

Current day Nov 2012 - April 2013 wet

Preindustrial May 2013- Oct 2013 dry

Current day May 2013- Oct 2013 dry

Animations of Threats to coral Reef Health

Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 31

Suspended Sediment

in the Whitsundays

Potential for Bleaching I

n Palm Cove

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,0001

99

5

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

Total Fish Molluscs Seaweed

Aquaculture Production of Chile

(source: Sernapesca)

• Rapid growth, and continuing…• High value US$ 3.8b, and up to 40% regional labor force)• Crises, impacts, • Race for space w 3,832 leases (@2016 - 1,776 salmon; 1,417 mollusks)• Need for evidence-based management

ISA

StrongEl Niño

StrongEl Niño

Met

ric

Ton

ne

s(M

T)

522,000(07/17)

ENSO activity

• Calibrating & development (other regions, river flows)• Kronoss I Survey (Oct 2017)

Los Lagos Hydrodynamic NRT model

Modelling Production Systems

MUSSELS

Weight (g)

Gro

wth

rat

e (g

w-1

)

Biomass or growthmodel

Biomass (t)

Gro

wth

rat

e (t

w-1

)

Biomassmodel

Disease free

Low mortality

High mortality

Uninfected

Weight (g)

Gro

wth

rat

e (g

w-1

)

Disease model

Growthmodel

SALMON

www.emg.cmar.csiro.au/www/en/emg/projects/SIMA-AUSTRAL.html

Caligus Dispersal

Copepodid7 day

critical period

http://www.emg.cmar.csiro.au/www/en/emg/projects/SIMA-AUSTRAL.html

Chlorophyll Surface detrital nitrogen

Chiloe Chiloe

Fjord Reñihué

Safe

Unsafe

Vertical oxygen profileSafe

Unsafe

Operational (production) decisions

Risk and Incident ResponseConnectivity and propagation

Select: period of interestSelect:

parasiteviruscontaminant

plankton (HAB)Movement type:

passive advectiondedicated movement

Source or sink

Integrated risks (new risks)

▪ Considers the total supply and value chain

▪ Considers all the system users

▪ Can consider multiple risks- animal health- production- environmental- economic- social

▪ Consider the animal health and production

Aquaculture and fisheries

Oher industries

Environmental condition & Social wellbeing

Integrated future risks

▪ Including competition and effects of other industries

$ 167 millón USD


How can different modelling approaches support the development of ocean accounts?

• Estimate missing data in accounts

• Use accounts to provide data inputs to models

• Scenario approaches to estimate• future conditions

• Alternative management interventions/options

• Examine Feedback and Hysteresis

• Ecosystem vulnerabilities and thresholds.


Estimating Missing Data in SEAA Accounts

The Ocean Accounts

Ecosystem

Condition

Ecosystem

Service

Supply

Ecosystem

Service Use

and

Benefits

Drivers• Social

• Economic

• Environmental

Future

Scenarios

Ecosystem

models

Biophysical

• pH, DO, Temp, Ch

Biomass

Fish, benthic, plankton

• Carbon

sequestration

• Nutrient

uptake

• Protein

producedGCM downscaled

Regional Biophysical

and Ecosystem modles

Coupled Biophysical

Ecosystem models

Catchment

Hydrodyamic

& atmospheric

ProductionEconomic

Models


4. Some key challenges Defining user needs and products

Access to and cleaning of data for calibrating and parametrizing models

Model linking and interoperability

Technical capacity to develop and operate

Institutional Operationalisation

Support for ongoing Validation and Assimilation


Recommendations for ocean accounting technical guidance?

1. Models are useful for the ocean accounting!a. Examine and adapt Report Card Formats to Ocean Accounts

2. First Steps:a. set of specific ‘use-cases’ for modelling b. Define Values and Essential Ocean Variablesc. High priority areas d. Review existing models, output and availability

3. Consider data collation /monitoring within a modelling framework

4. Establish Regional Parameter Library –model agnostic

5. Embed models within Information platforms

6. Access open source regional models, engage modelling community and provide regional/local capacity building


Acknowledgements• Prepared by:

• Andy Steven• Research Director, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial

Research Organisation (CSIRO), [email protected]

• Thank you:• UNESCAP.• Ben Milligan and Michael Bordt• Beth Fulton, Mark Baird, Emlyn Jones, Andrew Lenton, Richard Matear

(CSIRO) • Paper Contributors: • Rick Moll , Zeba Ali), Anastasia Kuswardani Laura David Janaka

Wijetunge, Srisod Sirisup ,Somyod Projunban, Anthony Dvarskas, Sarah Taylor, Douglas Cripe, Brian Killough, Ken Bagstad, Bethanna Jackson

• https://www.unescap.org/events/asia-and-pacific-regional-expert-workshop-ocean-accounts

• Contact: [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

https://unstats.un.org/unsd/envaccounting/eea_project/default.asp

mailto:[email protected]

Documents

Issue 9: Modelling and ocean accounts - UN ESCAP · Marine and Coastal Values Database for the Bismarck Sea, PNG Modelling for Management: News from Ningaloo • Framework to value