Israel’s National SecurityIn Crisis

The Rise and Fall of Strategies

Relevancy

Paradigm ‘relevant’ to

reality

Paradigm Eroded

Paradigm Loses

Relevancy

New Paradigm

Generations

Strategies in the Flat World

A few years

Time

Israel’s National Security Concept

Time

Rele

van

cy

Ben Gurion’s Seminar

1947 2000~

2nd Lebanon War Tahdiah

with Hamas

Israel secure

Logic of Implosion Israel’s Code

Broken

Winograd Commission

UNSCR 1701

Billions of Dollars

++

1936-45

Israel suffering from Strategic Inferiority

Israel losing to Resistance Network

Failure to topple Hamas

2nd Lebanon War

Convergence Plan

Annapolis Stalemate

Around Gaza

>0:5

Ideology + Strategy + Nuclear Weapons

= New Strategic Challenge

1234

IDF SuperiorityArab States: Strategic balance

Resistance Network Outflanking IDF

Resistance Network Bypasses IDF

Israeli Inferiority

IL Arabs Home front

Intl Arena

Basic Assumptions: Strategic A-Symmetry

Flat network based structure Hierarchical top-down structure

Permanent ResistanceFinality of claims / PeaceLow intensity / Attrition / ImplosionHigh intensity / Victory

Attack civilians / Human shieldsNo civilian casualtiesIL Arabs = Strategic leverageIL Arabs = domestic issue

Battleground: Home front & intl. arena

Battleground: Military field

Control over PL = Strategic AssetControl over PL = Military NecessityAuthority w/o responsibilityAuthority with responsibility

Undermine 2SS / Promote 1SS

Tactics: Overstretch

No Finality of claims

Basic De-Legitimacy

Demography / Intl Law

Logic of ImplosionVision:

Islamic State in place of Israel

Democracy

Demography

Territory

Identity

Ahmadinejad: “Israel is on a crash course… just like

the Soviet Union disappeared.” (12/2/06)

Nasrallah: “We do not need tanks and planes… [Israel] is weaker than a spider web.” (7/31/06)

Occupation Serves the Implosion

Purpose: Destruction of Israel

MilitaryMeans

De-LegitimizePromote 1SSOppose 2SS

IsraeliImplosion

Single Arab State in its

place

War Against

Occupation

Continuation of the

OccupationMeshal: “If Hamas cannot

protect the Palestinian people, let the PA go to

hell…” (3/19/06)

The Threat: International Inversion

Logic of Implosion Occupation is Bad for Israel

Global Changes: USA Declining

New Forces Rise

Inversion: From Two-State Solution to One-state SolutionIsraeli-Arabs:

InternationalizationPalestinizationChallenge to IL’s Charecter

International Inversion Towards the 2SS

Anti-Zionism risingFailure of NegotiationBy the ‘Dream-Team’

Ben Gurion’s Seminar (3-11/47)

Focus

Systemic & Systematic Approach

Learning Process

Defining the Challenge

Formulating structural & Operational approach

National Security Strategy & Victory

Objectives

Why it was Successful

2008: A New Seminar is Required