ISAM Results for UNFCC Modeling Exercise

Atul K. JainDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences

University of Illinois, Urbana, ILemail: jain@atmos.uiuc.edu

Acknowledgements

S. Smith, H. Kheshgi, K. Hayhoe

Phase 1-Model Validation

280340400460520580640700760820

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100Year

CO

2 C

once

ntra

tion

(ppm

v)

ISAMHadCM3

750

1250

1750

2250

2750

3250

3750

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100Year

CH

4 C

once

ntra

tion

(pp

bv)

ISAMHadCM3

280300320340360380400420440

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100Year

N2O

Con

cent

ratio

n (p

pmv) ISAM

HadCM3

ISAM

Comparison of ISAM Estimated Concentrations for IPCC SRES A2 Scenario with HadCM3

Phase 1-Model Validation (cont.)Comparison of ISAM Estimated Temp. & Sea Level Changes for

IPCC SRES A2 Scenario with HadCM3

-0.5

0.31.0

1.82.5

3.3

4.0

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100Year

Tem

pera

ture

Ch

an

ge (

deg

.C)

ISAMHadCM3

-0.54.59.5

14.519.524.529.534.539.5

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100Year

Sea L

evel

Ch

an

ge (

cm

)

ISAM (Thermal Expen.)ISAM (Thermal Expen.+Others)HadCM3

x

x

ISAM

Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM)Carbon Cycle. ISAM's global carbon cycle component simulates CO2 exchange between the atmosphere, carbon reservoirs in the terrestrial biosphere, and the ocean column and mixed layer

Jain et al., 1994: Global Biogechemical CyclesJain et al. 1995: J. Geophys. Res.Jain et al. 1996: TellusKheshgi, Jain, et al. 1996: Climatic ChangeKheshgi, Jain et al. 1999a: J. Geophysics. Res.

Kheshgi and Jain 2002: Global Biogechemical Cycles (in press)

ISAM

Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM)Methane Cycle. Simulate the main atmospheric chemical processes influencing the global concentrations of CH4, CO, and OH, using a global CH4-CO-OH cycle model.

Jain and Bach, 1994b: Theoretical and Applied ClimatologyKheshgi, Jain et al., 1999b: J. Geophys. Res.

Other GHGs. For N2O and halocarbons are calculated by a mass balance model

Bach and Jain, 1990: Intl. J. Climatology

Climate Model. Temperature and sea level changes based on energy-balance climate model of the type used in the 1990 IPCC assessment (Harvey et al., 1997: IPCC TR2 ). The climate component of ISAM calculates the perturbations inradiative forcings from CO2 and other GHGs based on updated seasonal and latitudinal GHG radiative forcing analyses (Jain et al., 2000: J. Geophys. Res.)

ISAM

Phase 2 - Methodology for Attribution Calculations

Time FrameEmission start and end dates 1890 and 2000

Historical and Future EmissionsCO2: Historical emissions based on CDIAC. Future Emissions based on IPCC SRES A2 ScenarioCH4, N2O: Historical emissions based on EDGAR database. Future Emissions based on IPCC SRES A2 ScenarioAerosol Emissions: Historical Emissions based on Smith (2002). Future Emissions based on IPCC SRES A2 Scenario

Countries/RegionsThe four groups of countries are considered: OECD90, REF, ASIA, and ALM

ISAM Model Parameters: Baseline ISAM model parameters are used. Ranges of ISAM model parameters are described in the Carbon Cycle Chapter of IPCC WGI TAR and Kheshgi andJain (2002).

ISAM

Attribution Calculations (submitted)

The relative contribution (RCi) for a given region (i) is calculated based on linear scaling method

whereG: Global mean temperature or sea level changes

(GHG+Aerosols)

G-REGi: Global mean temperature or sea level changes (GHG+Aerosols) by assuming one of the regions (i) emissions zero over the time period 1890-2000

∑=

−

−

−−= 4

1)(

*)(

iREGi

REGii

GG

GGGRC

ISAM

Temperature Contribution (fraction) due to GHGs (1890-2000 Case) (Submitted)

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5 OECDREFASIAALM

2000 2050 2100

ISAM

Attribution Calculations (revised)

The relative contribution (RCi) for a given region (i) is calculated based on linear scaling method

whereG: Global mean temperature or sea level changes

(GHG+Aerosols)

G-REGi: Global mean temperature or sea level changes (GHG+Aerosols) by assuming one of the regions (i) emissions zero over the time period 1890-2000

G-aerosol: Global mean temperature or sea level changes(GHG+Aerosols)

)()(*)( 4

1aerosol

iREGi

REGii

GGGG

GGGRC−

=−

−

−+−−=

∑

ISAM

Temperature Contribution (deg. C) due to GHGs (1890-2000 Case)

2000

00.20.40.60.8

11.21.41.61.8

OECD

REFASIA

ALMTotalGlobal

Total = Total contribution of four groups of countries due to GHGsGlobal=Global Mean (GHG+SO2 Aerosols)ISAM

Global Temperature Change: Base LineIn 2000, the global mean temperature change due to GHGs (CO2,

CH4, N2O) was more than twice than the temperature change due to

GHG+ SO2 Aerosol

Attribution Reference Case - Temperature Change Attributed to:

GHGs (CO2, CH4, N2O) – Largest to smallest contribution:

(1) OECD

(2) ASIA

(3) REF, and

(4)ALM

Temperature Contribution (deg. C) due to GHGs (1890-2000 Case)

ISAM

Contributions of Temperature Change by Gas and Region (1890-2000 Case)

2000

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

OECD REF ASIA ALM

Tem

pera

ture

Cha

nge

(deg

. C)

CO2 FossilCO2 LandCH4N2OAerosolNet

ISAM

Contributions of Temperature Change by Gas and Region (1890-2000 Case)

Attribution Reference Case + Aerosols - Temperature Change Attributed to:

GHGs + SOx CO2 FF CO2LU CH4 SOx

*(1) OECD OECD ALM ASIA ASIA

(2) ALM REF ASIA OECD OECD

(3) REF ASIA OECD ALM REF

(4) ASIA ALM REF REF ALM

*Largest to smallest contribution

ISAM

Regional CO2 Fossil and Sulfur Emissions

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000Year

Foss

il Fu

el E

mis

sion

s (G

tC)

OECDREFASIAALM

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 200Year

Sulfa

te E

mis

sion

s (M

tS)

OECDREFASIAALM

CDIAC Smith (2002, in preparation)ISAM

Uncertainties/Feedbacks

ISAM

Relative Importance of Various Forcing (1765-2000)

ISAM

Change in Direct Aerosol Radiative Forcings (1750-2000):Spatial Variation

Sulfa

te A

eros

ols

Bio

mas

s OC

& B

C

Foss

il Fu

el O

C &

BC

ISAM

IPCC (2001)

Change in Direct Aerosol Radiative Forcings (1750-2000):Spatial Variation

Aerosols have larger spatial variations in theirradiative forcings. The net effect of BC (which warm) and sulfate (which cool) aerosols can either be warming or cooling at various locations

ISAM

OH Feedback and Methane Concentration

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Year

CH

4 C

once

ntra

tion

(ppb

v) With OH Feedback

Without OH Feedback

ISAM Estimated CH4 Concentration for SRES A2 Scenario

ISAM

OH Feedback and Methane Concentration

OH is the major sink of CH4. Most importantly, OH has large spatial variations and its rates of formation and destructions depend on number of tropospheric pollutants, including CO, NOx, and VOCs.

ISAM

Climate-Carbon Cycle Feedback

350

450

550

650

750

850

950

1050

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Year

CO

2 C

once

ntra

ion

(ppm

v) CO2 OnlyReference (CO2+climate)Range (CO2+climate)Range (CO2+climate)

ISAM Estimated CO2 Concentration for SRES A2 Scenario

ISAM

Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM)

We are studying interactive feedback processes using Integrated Science Assessment Model

(ISAM)

ISAM

Global-Annual Mean Version of Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM)

Global MeanConcentration

Global MeanTemperatureChange

Global MeanSea LevelChange

Greenhous GasEmissions

Concentrations

CH4

N2O

CFCs

HCFCs, etc

EquilibriumTemperature

RadiativeForcing

RealizedTemperature

SeaLevel

CO2

Aerosols

Strat. & Trop.Cl & Br Loading

X

ISAM

Current Version of ISAM Current Version of ISAM with Temporal and Spatial Resolutionwith Temporal and Spatial Resolution

EMISSIONSPNNL MiniCam Model

GHG emissions from industrial & energy-related sources

CHEMICAL TRANSPORT2D Atmospheric Chemical 2D Atmospheric Chemical

Transport Box ModelTransport Box ModelConcentrations of GHG,aerosols and

other radiatively active species

BIOSPHEREAgricultural Land Use Model

CO2 fluxes from land use change

CARBON CYCLE2D Coupled Atmosphere2D Coupled Atmosphere--OceanOcean--Biosphere ModelBiosphere Model

Carbon dioxide concentrations

CLIMATE MODEL2D Radiative Transfer Model2D Radiative Transfer Model

2D Atmosphere2D Atmosphere--OceanOcean--Land Moisture & Energy BalanceLand Moisture & Energy Balance ModelModelChanges in global temperature,

precipitation and sea level

IMPACT ASSESSMENT STUDIES

ISAM

GOALThe development of an ideal tool

based on solid scienceto increase our understanding

of earth system feedbacksand to address multi-dimensional

science and policy issues related to climate change.

ISAM

ISAM WWW INTERFACEhttp://isam.atmos.uiuc.edu/isam

Purpose:To make a state-of-the-art integrated

assessment model available to the non-specialist human users in a user-friendly format

Audience:Graduate students, researchers from other

disciplines, Educators, and Policymakers

ISAM

ObjectivesTo give Researchers/Educators/Policy Makers a tool

for:understanding the science of global changeusing ISAM users see how physical processes and parameters in the climate system determine its behavior.

understanding how policy makers assess the implications of their decisionsstudents use a model identical to that used by policy makers in forming greenhouse gas emissions policies.

ISAM

T EM

PE R

AT U

RE

UV

Climate on Chemistry Radiation on Chemistry and hence on Climate

OH

NOx

CO

NMHCs

O3

H2O

CH4

Chemical Feedbacks

Chemistry on ClimateISAM

Climate-Chemistry-Climate Interactions:The Example of CH4

Integrated Assessment Modeling as aTool for Scientific and Policy Analysis

To Study Feedbacks Throughout The Earth SystemIn the science and policy world …

EMISSIONS

Socio-economic + energy analyses

and modeling

CONCENTRATIONS

Carbon Cycle & Chemical transport

models

CLIMATE CHANGE

IMPACTS

RADIATIVE FORCING

Radiative transfer models

A-O-CIRCULATION

A-O Models

ISAM

Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM)as a Tool for Scientific and Policy Analysis

UUse all key Climate System Components and Feedbacksat an appropriate level of detail;AAccount for sub-grid climate processes by using empirical relationships to approximate net effects;AApproximate the effects of various physical and chemical processes based on AOGCM and CTM Fully interactive during calculations;EEvaluate chemical and climate feedback effects on policy developments;TTreat uncertainty as an essential feature;GGlobal in scope, but resolve regional distribution.

ISAM

THE END

ISAM

Land-Sea Configuration for ISAM

ISAM

Integrated Assessment

Hum an A ctivities

Energy UseLand Use(Deforestation)

Land SurfaceCharacteristics

Biodiversity Health Econom icActivity

Integrated A ssessm ent

Physical/C hemical Effects

Atm osphericCom position

Clim ate,Including Ocean

HydrologicalCycle

Biological & Other Effects

Socioeconom ic Effects

Agriculture NaturalEcosystem

W ater Resources

FOC

US

ISAM