Is there a physical model of oil depletion?

Yes!First simplification: separate discovery from

extraction

BUT Hubbert “analysis” is only curve fitting, no predictive power, only appeal to precedent.Not science!

Model of Oil ProductionField discovery is dispersed by fallow delay until infrastructure is built then full production

This plot adds a fewmore steps

We model these intervals as distributionsover the historical range:

(Vertical axis is volume of oil in this state)

The process progresses as if the original discovery is shifted in time & smeared out …

Same area

Stateof theoil

Smoothing spreads a distribution

Two distributions, one is viewed thru awindow that is slid over other to form weighted average output.

Their instantaneous product (= area) is plotted as line, smoothing (spreading) the original distribution.Pattern of oil discovery, smoothed

Dispersed Delay on Campus

This is what eachdelay looks like.

Triple smoothingleads to last

Field discovery “back-dated” to yr of initial discovery then dispersed gives D(t). But actually several yrs to reach full operation: fallow delay then buildup infrastructure then full production

Apply triple time-smoothing to discoveries D(t)/

23( )( ) ( )

(3)Best fit to data when =3 yrs

bfallow

t

matu ld ui reh eh D t th D t

Each smoothes D(t) more, with long tail.

So much for discovery, what maps it to production?

Simply multiply by extraction rate E(t)Extraction rate

<- to map discoveries to production

uncontrolled

TexasRailroadCommissionto conserveOil during WW II

Opec

China

Dynamics of recent oil productionseem to be very simple:

Petro engineers extract 2-3.5% of what’s left annually

Discoveries

A random generated example

production

discovery

Increasing fraction of oil recovered barely shifts the peak right

A physical model makes testable predictions & gives uncertainties

Work in progress by Foucher (Logi Energy, NYC)

Official IEA 2010

?

Field-by-field depletion would tell us the whole PO story

That governments have not demanded these data from ME NOCs is telling Numbers provided are suspiciously unchanged yr to yr

no published contingency plans for oil shortages

US strategic petroleum reserve = 44 days of 2012 full crude oil, then rationing We remain very vulnerable to “oil shock” supply disruptions,

especially refinery sabotage/damage

CoalLand plants