IR Assignment - Burma

7/31/2019 IR Assignment - Burma

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General background on Burma

As the time of writing, Burma1

is seen to be on course towards political reforms in its gradual

transition to democracy, headed by its President, (Senior General) Than Shwe and his cabinetmembers. As many analysts have predicted in the recent years, the General Election held in year

2010 would be tightly-managed by the ruling junta government which resulted to major victory of

military-backed candidates and parties primarily Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP),

sidelining the pro-democracy opposition parties and other ethnic minorities. The United Nations and

western countries have condemned the general election as fraudulent.

As the result of the election, the government is now a quasi-civilian government; a rebranding

exercise of the ruling military junta which has been retaining its power of the country since 1962, 12

years after gaining its independence from Britain. Burma never recovered since the military coup de

tat in 1962. Burma was once seen as the most promising state in the South East Asia region, butnow, is the poorest country in the region stamped with a bad boy image.

However in 2003, to the surprise of the international communities and the locals, President Than

Shwe announced that a roadmap towards discipline-flourishing democracy will be undertaken.

Steps toward democratization include the release of the Darling of the West as previously mocked

upon by military junta; Aung San Suu Kyi and other political dissidents.

Perhaps to prove Than Shwes sincerity in pursuing democracy, Aung San Suu Kyi and her National

League for Democracy (NLD) was allowed to contest in April 2012 by-election, to fill-up

parliamentary seats left by military. Astoundingly, Aung San Suu Kyi and her candidates won 43 out

of 45 seats contested in a by-election, indicating a real change is set and bound to happen, though

gradually. The seats won by the opposition include a crucial seat; Naypyindaw - Burmas current

capital inhibited mainly by military officers and government servants.

There are several crucial questions which need to be answered in this essay.Is it within the interest

of the super-powers especially US as well as Burmas neighbor to let Burma be a democratic state?

How serious is Burma in progressing and changing towards democracy? and if they are serious,

what are the proofs and can they perform given many hurdles in form of internal and external

factors which could possibly distort and divert their directions and aspirations.

This essay seeks to understand the external and internal factors which may influence the possible

success or failure of Burma towards democracy.


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The China Threat

There are possibly several reasons why US wish to exert their influence in this region, particularly

Burma. As the hegemon and a superpower, US by all means will try to expand their influence, which

include in the South East Asia region.

China, the next contender for the position of hegemon, is Burmas northern neighbor sharing

borders of Chinas state of Yunnan and Burmas states of Shan and Kachin (refer to Appendix 1).

Apart from violations of human rights, trafficking of human and drugs, Burma is seen to be too

close to China, from the eyes of US and its Asian allies. What makes the situation worse is because

the current administration of Burma is heavily influenced by the military and perhaps, democracy is

not in its agenda, worrying US that China might be using Burma as its pawn to serve Chinas

expansion .

In retaliation towards Burmas un-democratic and egregious behavior, US2

(effective in 1997 and

updated in 2007), EU and Canada (reference needed here) placed economic sanctions on Burma,

which limits Burmas much needed international trade. With limited trade Burmas national income

is badly affected. This forced Burma into relying and trading with its closest neighbors particularly

China.

Reacting against the sanctions and indirect threats, possibly, as a display of power (to insurgents andits neighbors) and to ensure its security, Burma strengthened its defense by purchasing weaponry

and military equipment from China. China even agreed to provide military training and gave

purchase credits to Burma in acquiring Chinas military equipments (refer to Appendix 2).

In 2003, China built a radar system in one of Burmas Coco island located about 300km off the

southern coast. This could be read as Chinas military strategic move as China will have access to

Bengal Bay and the Indian Ocean via Burma. This is indeed the interest of Chinas Navy to have

direct access, instead of having to pass through the Straits of Malacca, saving at least 4 days in

sailing. Perhaps this could also be seen by US as an attempt to strengthen military ties and

cooperation between China and India (another emerging superpower) to outdo the US.

However, in effort to deal with internal issues especially against the armed minority insurgent

groups, Burma has reasonable cooperation in obtaining military intelligence3

from India and China4.

Although both neighbors prefer not to directly interfere with internal matters but however, to

certain degree, cooperation were extended to Burmas military as each neighbor need to ensure

that their borders are not threaten by the insurgents . Perhaps at the borders, there are CIA agents


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operating and supporting these insurgents to put pressure on the ruling Burmese government so

that their aim towards a democratic Burma can be achieved.

(Sambung kepada kes insurgents)

Then shifted to Russia.

Perhaps Burma felt threathen by US this could also relate to the shift of the state capital to

Naypyindaw from Yangon. Naypyindaw is strategically located in case of US and its allies decided to

invade Burma.

Burma got credit from China when purchasing military equipments this is like a favorChina holds

the trump card. So whenever China wants something in return in the future Burma is obligated.

In ____, in effort to contain ethnic violence, Burma sought help from India and China

(fakta ni kena masuk di body 1)

Body 2: Neighboring pressures Thailand, India, China and ASEAN

Economic opportunity with neighboring countries and especially ASEAN Neighboring countries are US allies, so they have to abide to US for their own good Thailand social problems from Burma spill-over to Thailand AIDS, ethnic violence,

penyeludupan

India violence at the borders


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Body 3: Internal Pressure

Burmas neighbor; Thailand, China, and India complained and raised concern about many issues.

One of the most crucial issues among these states is human and drug trafficking which is happening

across their common borders. Whether or not Myanmar is seriously looking into stopping or at least

to contain these activities, are questionable.

One may ask why trafficking is so difficult to stop? For the love of human lives, stop trafficking, is

an example of banner statements made at peaceful demonstration in western countries. The answer

to the question is rather complicated. Since Burma got itself trapped in isolation and chose not to

abide to international pressure and accept international intervention in this problem, individuals are

forced to fend for themselves. Individuals with power, influence and authority, to some degree,

manipulated the situation to their advantage.

Drug trafficking activities usually takes place along the jungle borders of Burma of which the actors

are inter-border drug lords, leaders of ethnic minorities, local authorities and last but not least; a

number of high-ranking military individuals residing in the state administrative capital in Nay Pyi

Taw.

Drug lords would deal with the leaders of the ethnic minorities for consistent supplies of raw or

semi-processed drugs, in return for profits and protection. These ethnic leaders will then organize

their subjects to operationalize illegal drug farms/plantation, justifying that funds are badly needed

to survive and most importantly to fight for their cause and rights against the oppressing military

government. To certain extent, these drug lords would be seen giving support and protection in

form military support.

Trafficking activities are not without costs to the victims (which mostly are ethnic villagers and

peasants) as most are conscripted to labor without consent. The military presence provided by

drug lords, are actually armed field supervisors; hawking, forcing and terrorizing the victims into

laborious farm work, in guise of providing village protection against the government oppressors. In

short, the drug-lords manipulated the situation to their advantage to ensure the security of

consistent drug supplies while getting cheap or even forced (or almost) free labor. While possibly,

certain military fat cats residing in the capital are receiving financial kickbacks.

According to the statistics from the CIA5, poppy cultivation in year 2009 estimates was 17,000

hectares which 94.5% were sourced from north-eastern state of Shan, bordering China, Laos and


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Thailand (the Golden Triangle). While the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC)

estimated 610 tons of opium was produced in Burma in 20116

and around 256,000 households are

involved in the cultivation of opium in Myanmar7. UNODC also stated that there are at least 50 drug

trafficking organizations8

or groups operating within Burma which are also the main transporter of

methamphetamine pills that are trafficked throughout South East Asia en-route to other further

destinations. These are somehow conservative figures, as it is only the tip of the iceberg.

It will be a definite challenge to remove this cancer in Burma due to the complicatedness and

entanglement of interest and power between actors in and neighboring states. Even if democracy is

adopted in the near future by Burma, it will take more than internal effort to remove this problem as

it has embedded and rooted deeply into the system. As the drug lords operate between neighboring

borders, involvement of external parties as well as between parties cannot be avoided.

In order to remove this problem, it is essential to have military -like raid operations on the opium

plantations, in which massive financial funds are required to finance such operations. Aside from

that, other beneficial alternative economic activities must be provided to the villagers so that they

will not be tempted to return to their previous activities.

It will also be very challenging to mediate this problem because a) the system is already set, b)

probably the regime is still there after the destruction of the plantations, which further require the

removal of many government officers and authorities. Furthermore, there will be a need to have

close cooperation with neighbors to have common war on trafficking since the illegal operations

involves actors from the neighboring states just as described above. All neighboring countries must

reform simultaneously, and only then removal of the problem can be achieved.

Hence US and its allies would argue and justify their involvement (either directly, indirectly or even

discreetly) to curtail this problem to achieve their interest. By getting themselves involved, the

armed minority groups will not have to rely on incomes from illegal activities. Instead, with US

support these groups may be able to put further pressure on the ruling Burma government for a

better democratic deal and even opt for seize-fire. From a bigger perspective, if US and its allies are

able to solve this problem, Burma will have one less hurdle towards democracy, therefore are able

to distance itself or rather not relying too much on China.


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Conclusion

US and its allies may succeed in getting Burma but China will remain as Burmas closest ally as they

are obligated.


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1In ____, the military regime renamed Burma to ____ in short; Myanmar. Countries which do not recognize

the military as the legitimate ruler will refer the country as Burma not Myanmar2Larry A. Niksch and Martin A. Weiss, (2008), Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division, Burma: Economic

Sanctions, CRS Report on Congress, http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/101738.pdf retrieved on 11

May 20123

The insurgent groups are getting their illegal military equipment and supplies from warlords operating

between the borders.4The armed minority insurgent groups mainly operate between the Burmas borders with China and India

(state the name of the area/state and minority groups here)5

Central Intelligence Agency, The World Factbook East & South East Asia,

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/bm.html- accessed on 1 May 20126Andrew R.C. Marshall, Special Report: Myanmar declares war on opium, Reuters, February 19, 2012

7AFP, Opium cultivation rises in Myanmar, Laos: UN, Google

8Lindsay Murdoch, Thailand in new war on drugs, Sydney Morning Herald, September 14, 2011

United States

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India

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EU

NATO

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IR Assignment - Burma