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The Inside Track: Election 2016
THE INSIDE TRACK:ELECTION 2016JULIA CLARK & CHRIS JACKSON
WITH CLIFF YOUNG
ELECTION BRIEFING #5: MAY 26, 2016
#IPSOS2016ELECTION
Ipsos Webinar Series
© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
& WELCOMEHello
#Ipsos2016Election#Ipsos2016#Ipsos#ReutersIpsos
@ipsospa@ipsosna@ipsosnewspolls@_Ipsos
@CliffAYoung@PollsterJulia@jcbjackson
@Reuters@ReutersPolls@ReutersUS@ReutersPolitics@cmkahn
The Inside Track: Election 2016
This talk
Big Trends1 32
State of the Election
The Donald
The trends shaping American politics
The nominating process and poll update
Is Trump’s candidacy going to upset general election dynamics?
BIG TRENDSFirst
The Inside Track: Election 2016
Party Divide on the Social Issues
60%
37%
19
73
19
76
19
80
19
84
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
94
19
98
20
02
20
06
20
10
20
14
Source: General Social Survey 1975-2014
Believe Homosexual Relations are Not Wrong at All
Democrats
Republicans
THE BIG PICTURE
The Inside Track: Election 2016
Continued Cleavage: Big versus Small Government
70%
36%
19
75
19
84
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
94
19
98
20
02
20
06
20
10
20
14
Believe that the Government Should do More
Democrats
Republicans
Source: General Social Survey 1975-2014
THE BIG PICTURE
The Inside Track: Election 2016
Increased Immigration PressuresTHE BIG PICTURE
Know Nothing
Era
Anti-Catholic
EraCurrent
Era
More non-white than
white babies born
in 2011
The Inside Track: Election 2016
Disposable personal income, current dollars
Economic Pressure on the Middle Class
63% believe worse off
than parents
THE BIG PICTURE
STATE OF THE ELECTION
Second
The Inside Track: Election 2016
The Road RemainingSTATE OF THE ELECTION
Only 7 states left (and DC!)
The Inside Track: Election 2016
Democratic Delegate ProcessSTATE OF THE ELECTION
IA NH SC NV
Sup
er T
ues
day
Mar
ch 5
Mar
ch 6
Mar
ch 8
Mar
ch 1
0
Mar
ch 1
2
Mar
ch 1
5
Mar
ch 2
2
Mar
ch 2
6
Ap
ril 1
Ap
ril 5
Ap
ril 9
Ap
ril 1
9
Ap
ril 2
6
May
3
May
10
May
17
May
24
Jun
e 7
Jun
e 1
4
Delegates Needed: 2383
Clinton has 54% of the delegates awarded so far…
1750: Clinton1448: Sanders
2287 Clinton w/Superdelegates
The Inside Track: Election 2016
General Election Polls ClosingSTATE OF THE ELECTION
Ipsos/Reuters Poll Jan-May 2016
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
January February March April May
Registered Voters
40% - Clinton36% - Trump
24% - Undecided
The Inside Track: Election 2016
Trump Favorability Scores ReboundingSTATE OF THE ELECTION
Ipsos/Reuters Poll Jan-May 2016
30%
40%
50%
60%
January February March April May
Candidate FavorabilityRegistered Voters
47% - Clinton44% - Trump
The Inside Track: Election 2016
Clinton Favorability Declining with the LeftSTATE OF THE ELECTION
Ipsos/Reuters Poll Jan-May 2016
24%32%
40%
69%
80%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
January February March April May
Clinton FavorabilityRegistered Voters
72% - Very liberal72% - Moderate liberal64% - Lean liberal
26% - Very conservative31% - Moderate cons35% - Lean conservative
The Inside Track: Election 2016
Trump Favorability Rebounding with the RightSTATE OF THE ELECTION
Ipsos/Reuters Poll Jan-May 2016
72%
60%53%
28%
20%13%10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
January February March April May
Trump FavorabilityRegistered Voters
17% - Very liberal19% - Moderate liberal28% - Lean liberal
72% - Very conservative61% - Moderate cons
51% - Lean conservative
THE DONALDThird
The Inside Track: Election 2016
THE DONALD
Government approval rating Incumbent Successor
40% 55% 6%
45% 78% 14%
50% 90% 28%
55% 96% 49%
60% 98% 71%
Obama’s Current Approval
Scenario advantages Republican
Source: Ipsos Analysis of 500+ elections
Structural Model of the Election
The Inside Track: Election 2016
Polling Indicates Strong Clinton AdvantageTHE DONALD
Hillary Clinton
Donald Trump
Source: Ipsos/Reuters Poll, July 2015-April 2016
Trump’s odds of winning
general election
based on polling
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Probability of Victory
The Inside Track: Election 2016
Polls are less reliable the further outTHE DONALD
Time Before Election Average Poll Error
One week 1.7%
One month 2.7%
Two months 3.8%
Three months 4.8%
Six months 5.8%
Nine months 6.9%
Twelve months 7.9%
Source: Ipsos analysis of 300 polls across 40 markets from 1980 through current
The Inside Track: Election 2016
Alternative Polling ScenariosTHE DONALD
44% 42% 40%35% 38% 42%
1 2 3
Clinton Trump
Likely Voters: General Election
40/60 45/55 50/50
Trump Favorability 23% 43% 62%
Trump Odds
Modeled Vote Share
The Inside Track: Election 2016
Combinatorial ApproachesTHE DONALD
Base Rate Model Poll Aggregate Pr(Hillary)
Traditional (50-50)
28% 77% 53%
Cliff (70-30) 28% 77% 43%
Clinton Optimistic 59% 77% 66%
ClintonPessimistic
59% 57% 58%
Trump Optimistic 28% 57% 43%
Trump Pessimistic 28% 77% 53%
Average 38% 70% 53%
The Inside Track: Election 2016
Our ChallengeTHE DONALD
The Market Ipsos
70% Clinton
53% Clinton
Source: PredictWise
Contacts
Cliff YoungPresident
202.420.2016
Julia ClarkSenior Vice President
312.526..4919
Chris JacksonVice President
202.420.2025
@CliffAYoung @PollsterJulia @jcbjackson
OVER
TO
YOU
