IPCC Sustainable Development and Equity

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Working Group III Mitigation of Climate Change

Chapter 4

Sustainable Development and Equity


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Note:

ThisdocumentisthecopyeditedversionofthefinaldraftReport,dated17December2013,ofthe

Working

Group

III

contribution

to

the

IPCC

5th

Assessment

Report

"Climate

Change

2014:

Mitigation

of

Climate

Change"

that

was

accepted

but

not

approved

in

detail

by

the

12th

Session

of

Working

Group

III

and

the

39th

Session

of

the

IPCC

on

12

April

2014

in

Berlin,

Germany.Itconsists

ofthefullscientific,technicalandsocioeconomicassessmentundertakenbyWorkingGroupIII.

The Report should be read in conjunction with the document entitled Climate Change 2014:

MitigationofClimateChange.WorkingGroup IIIContributiontothe IPCC5thAssessmentReport

ChangestotheunderlyingScientific/TechnicalAssessmenttoensureconsistencywiththeapproved

Summary for Policymakers (WGIII: 12th/Doc. 2a, Rev.2) and presented to the Panel at its 39th

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and the Summary for Policymakers, which was approved linebyline by Working Group III and

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III

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FinalDraft Chapter4IPCCWGIIIAR5

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Chapter: 4

Title: SustainableDevelopmentandEquity

Author(s): CLAs: MarcFleurbaeyandSivanKartha

LAs: SimonBolwig,YokeLingChee,YingChen,EsteveCorbera,FranckLecocq,WolfgangLutz,MariaSilviaMuylaert,RichardB.Norgaard,ChukwumerijeOkereke,AmbujSagar

CAs: PaulBaer,DonaldA.Brown,JosefaFrancisco,MichaelZwickyHauschild,MichaelJakob,HeikeSchroeder,JohnThgersen,KevinUrama

REs: LuizPinguelliRosa,MatthiasRuth,JayantSathaye


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SustainableDevelopmentandEquity

Contents

ExecutiveSummary............................................................................................................................4

4.1Introduction..................................................................................................................................7

4.1.1KeymessagesofpreviousIPCCreports................................................................................7

4.1.2Narrativefocusandkeymessages........................................................................................8

4.1.2.1Consumption,disparitiesandwellbeing......................................................................9

4.1.2.2Equityatthenationalandinternationalscales.............................................................9

4.1.2.3Buildinginstitutionsandcapacityforeffectivegovernance.......................................10

4.2Approachesandindicators.........................................................................................................11

4.2.1Sustainabilityandsustainabledevelopment(SD)...............................................................11

4.2.1.1Definingandmeasuringsustainability.........................................................................11

4.2.1.2Linkswithclimatechangeandclimatepolicy..............................................................13

4.2.2Equityanditsrelationtosustainabledevelopmentandclimatechange...........................13

4.3Determinants,driversandbarriers............................................................................................18

4.3.1Legacyofdevelopmentrelations........................................................................................18

4.3.2Governanceandpoliticaleconomy.....................................................................................19

4.3.3Populationanddemography...............................................................................................22

4.3.4Valuesandbehaviours........................................................................................................23

4.3.5Humanandsocialcapital....................................................................................................24

4.3.6Technology..........................................................................................................................25

4.3.7Naturalresources................................................................................................................27

4.3.8Financeandinvestment......................................................................................................28

4.4Production,trade,consumptionandwastepatterns................................................................29

4.4.1Consumptionpatterns,inequalityandenvironmentalimpact...........................................29

4.4.1.1Trendsinresourceconsumption.................................................................................29

4.4.1.2Consumerismandunequalconsumptionlevels..........................................................30

4.4.1.3Effectofnonincomefactorsonpercapitacarbonfootprint.....................................30

4.4.2Consumptionpatternsandcarbonaccounting...................................................................31

4.4.2.1ChoiceofGHGaccountingmethod.............................................................................31

4.4.2.2Carbonfootprinting(consumptionbasedGHGemissionsaccounting)......................31

4.4.2.3

Product

carbon

footprinting

........................................................................................

32

4.4.2.4ConsumptionbasedandterritorialapproachestoGHGaccounting..........................32


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4.4.3SustainableconsumptionandproductionSCP................................................................34

4.4.3.1Sustainableconsumptionandlifestyle........................................................................34

4.4.3.2Consumersustainabilityattitudesandtherelationtobehaviour...............................35

4.4.3.3Sustainableproduction................................................................................................36

4.4.4Relationshipbetweenconsumptionandwellbeing...........................................................38

4.5Developmentpathways..............................................................................................................39

4.5.1Definitionandexamples......................................................................................................39

4.5.2Transitionbetweenpathways.............................................................................................41

4.5.2.1Pathdependenceandlockins.....................................................................................41

4.5.2.2Examplesandlessonsfromthetechnologytransitionliterature................................42

4.5.2.3Economicmodellingoftransitionsbetweenpathways...............................................43

4.6Mitigativecapacityandmitigation,andlinkstoadaptivecapacityandadaptation..................45

4.6.1Mitigationandadaptationmeasures,capacities,anddevelopmentpathways.................45

4.6.2Equityandburdensharinginthecontextofinternationalcooperationonclimate..........48

4.6.2.1Equityprinciplespertinenttoburdensharinginaninternationalclimateregime.....48

4.6.2.2Frameworksforequitableburdensharing..................................................................51

4.7Integrationofframingissuesinthecontextofsustainabledevelopment................................53

4.7.1Riskanduncertaintyinsustainabilityevaluation................................................................53

4.7.2Socioeconomicevaluation.................................................................................................54

4.8Implicationsforsubsequentchapters........................................................................................55

4.8.1Threelevelsofanalysisofsustainabilityconsequencesofclimatepolicyoptions.............55

4.8.2Sustainabilityandequityissuesinsubsequentchapters....................................................56

4.9Gapsinknowledgeanddata......................................................................................................61

4.10FrequentlyAskedQuestions.....................................................................................................63

References........................................................................................................................................64


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ExecutiveSummary

Sincethefirstassessmentreport,theIPCChasconsideredissuesofsustainabledevelopment(SD)andequity:acknowledgingtheimportancetoclimatedecisionmaking,andprogressivelyexpanding

thescopetoinclude:thecobenefitsofclimateactionsforSDandequity,therelevanceoflifestyleandbehaviour,therelevanceoftechnologicalchoices,therelevanceofproceduralequitytoeffectivedecisionmaking,andtherelevanceofethicalframeworksandequitableburdensharinginassessingclimateresponses.ThisAssessmentReportfurtherexploreskeydimensionsofSDandequity,highlightingthesignificanceofdisparitiesacrossdifferentregionsandgroups,andthewaysinwhichdesigningaclimatepolicyisacomponentofawiderangingsocietalchoiceofadevelopmentpath[Section4.1,4.2].

Sustainabledevelopment,acentralframingissueinthisAssessmentReport,isintimatelyconnectedtoclimatechange(highconfidence).SDisvariablyconceivedasdevelopmentthatpreservestheinterestsoffuturegenerations,thatpreservestheecosystemservicesonwhichcontinuedhumanflourishingdepends,orthatharmonizesthecoevolutionofthreepillars

(economic,social,environmental) [4.2].First,theclimatethreatconstrainspossibledevelopmentpaths,andsufficientlydisruptiveclimatechangecouldprecludeanyprospectforasustainablefuture(mediumevidence,highagreement).Thus,astableclimateisonecomponentofSD.Second,therearesynergiesandtradeoffsbetweenclimateresponsesandbroaderSDgoals,becausesomeclimateresponsesgeneratecobenefitsforhumanandeconomicdevelopment,whileotherscanhaveadversesideeffectsandgeneraterisks(robustevidence,highagreement).Thesecobenefitsandrisksarestudiedinthesectorchaptersofthisreport,alongwithmeasuresandstrategiestooptimizethem.Optionsforequitableburdensharingcanreducethepotentialforthecostsofclimateactiontoconstraindevelopment(mediumevidence,highagreement). Third,atamorefundamentallevel,thecapacitiesunderlyinganeffectiveclimateresponseoverlapstronglywithcapacitiesforSD(mediumevidence,highagreement)anddesigninganeffectiveclimatepolicy

involvesmainstreamingclimateinthedesignofcomprehensiveSDstrategiesandthinkingthroughthegeneralorientationofdevelopment(mediumevidence,mediumagreement)[4.2,4.5].

EquityisanintegraldimensionofSD(highconfidence).First,intergenerationalequityunderliestheconceptofsustainability.IntragenerationalequityisalsooftenconsideredanintrinsiccomponentofSD.Intheparticularcontextofinternationalclimatepolicydiscussions,severalargumentssupportgivingequityanimportantrole:amoraljustificationthatdrawsuponethicalprinciples;alegal

justificationthatappealstoexistingtreatycommitmentsandsoftlawagreementstocooperateonthebasisofstatedequityprinciples;andaneffectivenessjustificationthatarguesthatafairarrangementismorelikelytobeagreedinternationallyandsuccessfullyimplementeddomestically(mediumevidence,mediumagreement).Arelativelysmallsetofcoreequityprinciplesserveasthebasisformostdiscussionsofequitableburdensharinginaclimateregime:responsibility(forGHGemissions),capacity(abilitytopayformitigation,butsometimesotherdimensionsofmitigativecapacity),therighttodevelopment,andequality(ofteninterpretedasanequalentitlementtoemit)[4.2,4.6].

Whileitispossibletoenvisionanevolutiontowardequitableandsustainabledevelopment,itsunderlyingdeterminantsarealsodeeplyembeddedinexistingsocietalpatternsthatareunsustainableandhighlyinertial(highconfidence).AusefulsetofdeterminantsfromwhichtoexaminetheprospectsforandimpedimentstoSDandequityare:thelegacyofdevelopmentrelations;governanceandpoliticaleconomy;populationanddemography;valuesandbehaviour;humanandsocialcapital;technology;naturalresourceendowments;andfinanceandinvestment.Theevolutionofeachofthesedeterminantsasadriver(ratherthanbarrier)toaSDtransitionis

conceivable,butalsoposesprofoundchallenges(medium

evidence,

medium

agreement)[4.3].


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GoverningatransitiontowardaneffectiveclimateresponseandSDpathwayisachallengeinvolvingrethinkingourrelationtonature,accountingformultiplegenerationsandinterests(includingthosebasedonendowmentsinnaturalresources),overlappingenvironmentalissues,amongactorswithwidelyunequalcapacities,resources,andpoliticalpower,anddivergentconceptionsofjustice(highconfidence).Keydebatedissuesincludearticulatingtopdownand

bottomupapproaches,engagingparticipationofdiversecountriesandactors,creatingprocedurallyequitableformsofdecentralizationandcombiningmarketmechanismswithgovernmentaction,allinaparticularpoliticaleconomiccontext(robustevidence,highagreement)[4.3].

Technologyandfinancebotharestrongdeterminantsoffuturesocietalpaths,andwhilesocietyscurrentsystemsofallocatingresourcesandprioritizingeffortstowardinvestmentandinnovationareinmanywaysrobustanddynamic,therearealsosomefundamentaltensionswiththeunderlyingobjectivesofSD(highconfidence).First,thetechnologicalinnovationandfinancialsystemsarehighlyresponsivetoshorttermmotivations,andaresensitivetobroadersocialandenvironmentalcostsandbenefitsonlytotheoftenlimitedextentthatthesecostsandbenefitsareinternalizedbyregulation,taxation,lawsandsocialnorms. Second,whilethesesystemsare

quite

responsive

to

market

demand

that

is

supported

by

purchasing

power,

they

are

only

indirectly

responsivetoneeds,particularlyofthoseoftheworld'spoor,andtheyoperatewithatimehorizonthatdisregardspotentialneedsoffuturegenerations(mediumevidence,mediumagreement)[4.3].

Enhancinghumancapitalbasedonindividualknowledgeandskills,andsocialcapitalbasedonmutuallybeneficialformalandinformalrelationshipsisimportantforfacilitatingatransitiontowardsustainabledevelopment(mediumevidence,highagreement).Socialdilemmasariseinwhichshorttermindividualinterestsconflictwithlongtermsocialinterests,withaltruisticvaluesbeingfavourabletoSD.However,theformationofvaluesandtheirtranslationintobehavioursismediatedbymanyfactors,includingtheavailablesetofmarketchoicesandlifestyles,thetenorofdominantinformationsources(includingadvertisementsandpopularculture),thecultureandprioritiesofformalandcivilinstitutions,andprevailinggovernancemode(mediumevidence,

medium

agreement).Thedemographictransitiontowardlowfertilityratesisusuallyviewedfavorably,thoughanageingpopulationcreateseconomicandsocialchallenges,andmigrationsduetoclimateimpactsmayexacerbatetensions(mediumevidence,mediumagreement)[4.3,4.4].

Theglobalconsumptionofgoodsandserviceshasincreaseddramaticallyoverthelastdecades,inbothabsoluteandpercapitaterms,andisakeydriverofenvironmentaldegradation,includingglobalwarming(highconfidence).Thistrendinvolvesthespreadofhighconsumptionlifestylesinsomecountriesandsubregions,whileinotherpartsoftheworldlargepopulationscontinuetoliveinpoverty.Therearehighdisparitiesinconsumptionbothbetweenandwithincountries(robustevidence,highagreement)[4.4].

Twobasictypesofdecouplingoftenariseinthecontextofatransitiontowardsustainable

development:thedecouplingofmaterialresourceconsumption(includingfossilfuels)andenvironmentalimpact(includingclimatechange)fromeconomicgrowth,andthedecouplingofeconomicgrowthfromhumanwellbeing(highconfidence).Thefirsttypethedematerializationoftheeconomy,i.e.,ofconsumptionandproductionisgenerallyconsideredcrucialformeetingSDandequitygoals,includingmitigationofclimatechange.Productionbased(territorial)accountingsuggeststhatsomedecouplingofimpactsfromeconomicgrowthhasoccurred,especiallyinindustrializedcountries,butitsextentissignificantlydiminishedbasedonaconsumptionbasedaccounting(robustevidence,mediumagreement).ConsumptionbasedemissionsaremorestronglyassociatedwithGrossDomesticProduct(GDP)thanproductionbasedemissions,becausewealthiercountriesgenerallysatisfyahighershareoftheirfinalconsumptionofproductsthroughnetimportscomparedtopoorercountries.Ultimately,absolutelevelsofresourceuseandenvironmental

impactincludingGHGemissionsgenerallycontinuetorisewithGDP(robust

evidence,

highagreement),thoughgreatvariationsbetweencountrieshighlighttheimportanceofotherfactors


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suchasgeography,energysystem,productionmethods,wastemanagement,householdsize,dietandlifestyle.Thesecondtypeofdecouplingofhumanwellbeingfromeconomicgrowthisamorecontroversialgoalthanthefirst.Thereareethicalcontroversiesaboutthemeasureofwellbeingandtheuseofsubjectivedataforthispurpose(robustevidence,mediumagreement).Therearealsoempiricalcontroversiesabouttherelationshipbetweensubjectivewellbeingandincome,

withsomerecentstudiesacrosscountriesfindingaclearrelationshipbetweenaveragelevelsoflifesatisfactionandpercapitaincome,whiletheevidenceaboutthelongtermrelationshipbetweensatisfactionandincomeislessconclusiveandquitediverseamongcountries(mediumevidence,mediumagreement).Studiesofemotionalwellbeingdoidentifyclearsatiationpointsbeyondwhichfurtherincreasesinincomenolongerenhanceemotionalwellbeing(mediumevidence,mediumagreement).Furthermore,incomeinequalityhasbeenfoundtohaveamarkednegativeeffectonaveragesubjectivewellbeing,duetoperceivedunfairnessandunderminedtrustofinstitutionsamonglowincomegroups(mediumevidence,mediumagreement)[4.4].

Understandingtheimpactofdevelopmentpathsonemissionsandmitigativecapacity,and,moregenerally,howdevelopmentpathscanbemademoresustainableandmoreequitableinthe

future

requires

in

depth

analysis

of

the

mechanisms

that

underpin

these

paths

(high

confidence).

Ofparticularimportancearetheprocessesthatmaygeneratepathdependenceandlockins,notablyincreasingreturnsbutalsouseofscarceresources,switchingcosts,negativeexternalitiesorcomplementaritiesbetweenoutcomes(robustevidence,highagreement)[4.5,4.6].Thestudyoftransitionsbetweenpathwaysisanemergingfield,notablyinthecontextoftechnologytransitions.Yetanalyzinghowtotransitiontoasustainable,lowemissionpathwayremainsamajorscientificchallenge.Itwouldbeaidedbymodelswithaholisticframeworkencompassingtheeconomy,society(inparticularthedistributionofresourcesandwellbeing),andtheenvironment,takeaccountofrelevanttechnicalconstraintsandtrends,andexplorealongtermhorizonwhilesimultaneouslycapturingprocessesrelevantfortheshorttermandthekeyuncertainties(mediumevidence,mediumagreement)[4.5,4.7].

MitigationandadaptationmeasurescanstronglyaffectbroaderSDandequityobjectives,anditisthususefultounderstandtheirbroaderimplications(highconfidence).Buildingbothmitigativecapacityandadaptivecapacityreliestoaprofoundextentonthesamefactorsasthosethatareintegraltoequitableandsustainabledevelopment(mediumevidence,highagreement),andequitableburdensharingcanenhancethesecapacitieswheretheyaremostfragile[4.6].Thischapterfocusesonexaminingwaysinwhichthebroaderobjectivesofequitableandsustainabledevelopmentprovideapolicyframeforaneffective,robust,andlongtermresponsetotheclimateproblem.[4.8].


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4.1 Introduction

4.1.1 KeymessagesofpreviousIPCCreportsThischapterseekstoplaceclimatechange,andclimatechangemitigationinparticular,inthecontextofequityandSD.PriorIPCCassessmentshavesoughttodothisaswell,progressivelyexpandingthescopeofassessmenttoincludebroaderandmoreinsightfulreflectionsonthepolicyrelevantcontributionsofacademicliterature.

TheIPCCFirstAssessmentReport(FAR)(IPCC,1990)underscoredtherelevanceofequityandSDtoclimatepolicy.Mandatedtoidentifypossibleelementsforinclusioninaframeworkconventiononclimatechange,theIPCCprominentlyputforwardtheendorsementandelaborationoftheconceptofsustainabledevelopmentfornegotiatorstoconsideraspartoftheConventionsPreamble.Itnotedaskeyissueshowtoaddressequitablytheconsequencesforallandwhetherobligationsshouldbeequitablydifferentiatedaccordingtocountriesrespectiveresponsibilitiesforcausingandcombatingclimatechangeandtheirlevelofdevelopment.ThissetthestagefortheensuingUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCC)negotiations,which

ultimatelyincludedexplicitappealstoequityandSD,includinginitsPreamble,itsPrinciples(Article2),itsObjective(Article3),anditsCommitments(Article4).

TheIPCCSecondAssessmentReport(SAR)(IPCC,1995),publishedaftertheUNFCCCwassigned,maintainedthisfocusonequityandSD.ItreflectedagrowingappreciationfortheprospectsforSDcobenefitsandreiteratedthepolicyrelevanceofequityandSD.ItdidthismostvisiblyinaspecialsectionoftheSummaryforPolicymakerspresentingInformationRelevanttoInterpretingArticle2oftheUNFCCC,includingEquityandsocialconsiderationsandEconomicdevelopmenttoproceedinasustainablemanner.Notably,theSARaddedanemphasisonproceduralequitythroughalegitimateprocessthatempowersallactorstoeffectivelyparticipate,andontheneedtobuildcapacitiesandstrengtheninstitutions,particularlyindevelopingcountries.

The

IPCC

Special

Report

on

Emission

Scenarios

(SRES)

(Nakicenovic

et

al.,

2000)

demonstrated

that

broaderSDgoalscancontributeindirectly,yetsubstantially,toreducingemissions.ThisIPCCcontributionreflectedachangeinthescientificliterature,whichhadinrecentyearsexpandeditsdiscussionofSDtoencompassanalysesoflifestyles,culture,andbehaviour,complementingitstraditionaltechnoeconomicanalyses.Italsoreflectedarecognitionthateconomicgrowth(especiallyascurrentlymeasured)isnotthesolegoalofsocieties.TheSRESthusprovidedinsightsintohowpolicyinterventioncandecoupleeconomicgrowthfromemissionsandwellbeingfromeconomicgrowth,showingthatbothformsofdecouplingareimportantelementsofatransitiontoaworldwithlowgreenhousegas(GHG)emissions.

TheIPCCThirdAssessmentReport(TAR)(IPCC,2001)deepenedtheconsiderationofbroaderSDobjectivesinassessingresponsestrategies.Perhapsowingtoagrowingappreciationfortheseverity

oftheclimatechallenge,theTARstressedtheneedforanambitiousandencompassingresponse,andwasthusmoreattentivetotheriskofclimatefocusedmeasuresconflictingwithbasicdevelopmentaspirations.Itthusarticulatedthefundamentalequitychallengeofclimatechangeasensuringthatneithertheimpactofclimatechangenorthatofmitigationpoliciesexacerbatesexistinginequitiesbothwithinandacrossnations,specificallybecauserestrictionsonemissionswillcontinuetobeviewedbymanypeopleindevelopingcountriesasyetanotherconstraintonthedevelopmentprocess(SeeBox4.1forfurtherdiscussionoftherelationshipbetweenclimatechangeanddevelopmentchallengesindevelopingcountries.).TheTARrecognizedtheneedtodeepentheanalysisofequitableburdensharinginordertoavoidunderminingprospectsforSDindevelopingcountries.Moregenerally,theTARobservedthatequitableburdensharingisnotsolelyanethicalmatter.Evenfromarationalactorgametheoreticperspective,anagreementinwhichthe

burdenisequitablysharedismorelikelytobesignedbyalargenumberofcountries,andthustobemoreeffectiveandefficient.


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TheIPCCFourthAssessmentReport(AR4)(IPCC,2007)furtherexpandedtheconsiderationofbroaderSDobjectives.ItstressedtheimportanceofcivilsocietyandothernongovernmentactorsindesigningclimatepolicyandequitableSDstrategiesgenerally.TheAR4focusedmorestronglyonthedistributionalimplicationsofclimatepolicies,notingthatconventionalclimatepolicyanalysisthatisbasedtoonarrowlyontraditionalutilitarianorcostbenefitframeworkswillneglectcriticalequity

issues.Theseoversightsincludehumanrightsimplicationsandmoralimperatives;thedistributionofcostsandbenefitsofagivensetofpolicies,andthefurtherdistributionalinequitiesthatarisewhenthepoorhavelimitedscopetoinfluencepolicy.Thisisparticularlyproblematic,theAR4notes,inintegratedassessmentmodel(IAM)analysesofoptimalmitigationpathways,becauseclimateimpactsdonotaffectthepoorexclusivelythroughchangesinincomes.Nordotheysatisfactorilyaccountforuncertaintyandrisk,whichthepoortreatdifferentlythantherich.Thepoorhavehigherriskaversionandloweraccesstoassetsandfinancialmechanismsthatbufferagainstshocks.TheAR4wentontooutlinealternativeethicalframeworksincludingrightsbasedandcapabilitiesbasedapproaches,suggestinghowtheycaninformclimatepolicydecisions.Inparticular,theAR4discussedtheimplicationsofthesedifferentframeworksforequitableinternationalburdensharing.

The

IPCC

Special

Report

on

Renewable

Energy

Sources

and

Climate

Change

Mitigation

(SRREN)

(IPCC,

2011)deepenedtheconsiderationofbroaderSDobjectivesinassessingrenewableenergyoptions,notingparticularlythatwhilesynergiescanarise(forexample,helpingtoexpandaccesstoenergyservices,increaseenergysecurity,andreducesomeenvironmentalpressures),therecanalsobetradeoffs(suchasincreasedpressureonlandresources,andaffordability)andthesemustbenegotiatedinamannersensitivetoequityconsiderations.

TheIPCCSpecialReportonManagingtheRisksofExtremeEventsandDisasterstoAdvanceClimateChangeAdaptation(SREX)(IPCC2012a)highlightedkeyfurtherdimensionsofSDandequity,includingthedistinctionandinterplaybetweenincrementalandtransformativechangesbothofwhicharenecessaryforaneffectiveclimatepolicyresponse,andemphasizedthediversityofvaluesthatunderliedecisionmaking,e.g.,ahumanrightsframeworkvs.utilitariancostbenefitanalysis.

4.1.2 NarrativefocusandkeymessagesInkeepingwiththepreviousIPCCassessments,thischapterconsidersSDandequityasmattersofpolicyrelevanceforclimatechangedecisionmakers.ThechapterexaminesthewaysinwhichclimatechangeisinfactinextricablylinkedwithSDandequity,anditdoessowiththeaimofdrawingpolicyrelevantconclusionsregardingequitableandsustainableresponsestoclimatechange.

Inonedirection,thelinkisselfevident:aneffectiveclimateresponseisnecessaryforequitableandsustainabledevelopmenttooccur.Thedisruptionsthatclimatechangewouldcauseintheabsenceofaneffectivesocietalresponsearesufficientlysevere(seeAR5WGIandWGII)toseverelycompromisedevelopment,eventakingintoaccountfuturesocietiesabilitytoadapt(Shaliziand

Lecocq,2010).Noristhisdevelopmentlikelytobeequitable,asanincreasinglyinhospitableclimatewillmostseriouslyunderminethefutureprospectsofthosenations,communities,andindividualsthatareingreatestneedofdevelopment.Withoutaneffectiveresponsetoclimatechange,includingbothtimelymitigationandproactiveadaptation,developmentcanbeneithersustainablenorequitable.

Inrecentyears,theacademiccommunityhascomeincreasinglytoappreciatetheextenttowhichSDandequityarealsoneededasframeworksforassessingandprioritizingclimateresponses:giventhestrongtradeoffsandsynergiesbetweentheoptionsforaclimateresponseandSD,thedesignofaneffectiveclimateresponsemustaccordwiththeobjectivesfordevelopmentandequityandexploitthesynergies.AclimatestrategythatdoesnotdosorunstheriskeitherofbeingineffectiveforlackofconsensusandearnestimplementationorofjeopardizingSDjustaswouldunabatedclimate


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change.Therefore,ashifttowardmoreequitableandsustainablemodesofdevelopmentmayprovidetheonlycontextinwhichaneffectiveclimateresponsecanberealized.

Thescientificcommunityiscomingtounderstandthatclimatechangeisbutoneexampleofhowhumankindispressingupagainstitsplanetarylimits(MillenniumEcosystemAssessment,2005;

Rockstrm

et

al.,

2009a).

Technical

measures

can

certainly

help

in

the

near

term

to

alleviate

climate

change.However,thecomprehensiveanddurablestrategiessocietyneedsarethosethatrecognizethatclimatechangesharesitsrootcauseswithotherdimensionsoftheglobalsustainabilitycrisis,andthatwithoutaddressingtheserootcauses,robustsolutionsmaynotbeaccessible.

Thischapter,andmanypartsofthisreport,uncoverswaysinwhichabroaderagendaofSDandequitymaysupportandenableaneffectivesocietalresponsetotheclimatechallenge,byestablishingthebasisbywhichmitigativeandadaptivecapacitycanbebuiltandsustained.Inexaminingthisperspective,thischapterfocusesonseveralbroadthemes.

4.1.2.1 Consumption,disparities,andwellbeing

Thefirstthemerelatestowellbeingandconsumption.Therelationshipbetweenconsumption

levelsandenvironmentalpressures,includingGHGemissions,haslongbeenakeyconcernforSD,withagrowingfocusonhighconsumptionlifestylesinparticularandconsumptiondisparities.Asignificantpartoftheliteraturedevelopsmethodologiesforassessingtheenvironmentalimpactsacrossnationalboundariesofconsumption,throughconsumptionbasedaccountingandGHGfootprintanalysis.Importantresearchisnowalsoemergingontherelationshipbetweenwellbeingandconsumption,andhowtomoderateconsumptionanditsimpactswithouthinderingwellbeingandindeed,whileenhancingit.Moreresearchisnowavailableontheimportanceofbehaviour,lifestyles,andculture,andtheirrelationshiptooverconsumption(Sections4.3,4.4).

Researchisemergingtohelpunderstandunderconsumption,i.e.,povertyanddeprivation,anditsimpactsonwellbeingmorebroadly,andspecificallyonthemeansbywhichitunderminesmitigativeandadaptivecapacity(WGIIChapter20).Energypovertyisonecriticalexample,linked

directlytoclimatechange,ofunderconsumptionthatiswellcorrelatedwithweakenedlivelihoods,lackofresilience,andlimitedmitigativeandadaptivecapacity.Overcomingunderconsumptionandreversingoverconsumption,whilemaintainingandadvancinghumanwellbeing,arefundamentaldimensionsofSD,andareequallycriticaltoresolvingtheclimateproblem(Sections4.5,4.6).

4.1.2.2 Equityatthenationalandinternationalscales

Giventhedisparitiesevidentinconsumptionpatterns,thedistributionalimplicationsofclimateresponsestrategiesarecriticallyimportant.Asrecenthistoryshows,understandinghowpoliciesaffectdifferentsegmentsofthepopulationisessentialtodesigningandimplementingpoliticallyacceptableandeffectivenationalclimateresponsestrategies.Atransitionperceivedasjustwouldattractagreaterlevelofpublicsupportforthesubstantialtechnoeconomic,institutional,and

lifestyleshiftsneededtoreduceemissionssubstantiallyandenableadaptiveresponses.

Attheinternationallevel,anequitableregimewithfairburdensharingislikelytobeakeyconditionforaneffectiveglobalresponse(Sections4.2,4.6).Giventheurgencyoftheclimatechallenge,aratherrapidtransitionwillberequirediftheglobaltemperatureriseistoremainbelowthepoliticallydiscussedtargets,suchas1.5Cor2Coverpreindustriallevels,withglobalemissionspossiblypeakingassoonas2020(seeWGI,Figure6.25).Particularlyinasituationcallingforaconcertedglobaleffort,themostpromisingresponseisacooperativeapproachthatwouldquicklyrequirehumanitytothinklikeasocietyofpeople,notlikeacollectionofindividualstates(Victor,1998).

Whilescientificassessmentscannotdefinewhatequityisandhowequitableburdensharingshould

beimplementingtheConventionandclimatepoliciesingeneral,theycanhelpilluminatethe


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implicationsofalternativechoicesandtheirethicalbasis(Section4.6,alsoSections3.2,3.3,6.3.6,13.4.3).

4.1.2.3 Buildinginstitutionsandcapacityforeffectivegovernance

Whilethereisstrongevidencethatatransitiontoasustainableandequitablepathistechnically

feasible(seeSections6.1.2,6.3),chartinganeffectiveandviablecoursethroughtheclimatechallengeisnotmerelyatechnicalexercise.Itwillinvolvemyriadandsequentialdecisions,amongstatesandcivilsocietyactors,supportedbythebroadestpossibleconstituencies(Section4.3).Suchaprocessbenefitsfromtheeducationandempowermentofdiverseactorstoparticipateinsystemsofdecisionmakingthataredesignedandimplementedwithproceduralequityasadeliberateobjective.Thisappliesatthenationalaswellasinternationallevels,whereeffectivegovernancerelatingtoglobalcommonresources,inparticular,isnotyetmature.

Anygivenapproachtoaddressingtheclimatechallengehaspotentialwinnersandlosers.Thepoliticalfeasibilityofthatapproachwilldependstronglyonthedistributionofpower,resources,anddecisionmakingauthorityamongthepotentialwinnersandlosers. Inaworldcharacterizedbyprofounddisparities,procedurallyequitablesystemsofengagement,decisionmaking,andgovernanceappearneededtoenableapolitytocometoequitableandsustainablesolutionstothesustainabledevelopmentchallenge.

Box 4.1Sustainable development and climate change mitigation in developing countries

Theinterconnectednessofclimatechange,sustainabledevelopment,andequityposesseriouschallengesfordevelopingcountriesbutitalsopresentsopportunities.

Developingcountriesareconfrontedbyadauntingmitigationchallengeinthemidstofpressingdevelopmentneeds.Developingcountryemissionscomprisedmorethanhalfofglobalemissionsin2010,andgrewduringtheprecedingdecadebyanamountthataccountedforthetotalglobalemissionsrise(JRC/PBL(2012),IEA(2012),seeAnnexII.9;seeSection5.3).Intheabsenceof

concertedmitigationactions,thecomingdecadeswouldseethistrendprolonged,withacontinuedgrowthinglobalemissionsdrivenpredominantlybydevelopingcountriesrisingemissions(seeSection6.3).Thistrendistheunsurprisingoutcomeoftherecenteconomicgrowthinmanydevelopingcountries.Theincreaseinemissionscoincidedwithanumberofpositivedevelopments:overthepastdecade,theoverallpovertyratehasdeclined,maternalandchildmortalityhavefallen,theprevalenceofseveralpreventablediseaseshasdecreased,andaccesstosafedrinkingwaterandsanitationhasexpanded,whiletheHumanDevelopmentIndex(HDI)acrossnationshasrisenanditsconvergencehasbecomemorepronounced.ThisriseoftheSouthhasbeentermedunprecedentedinitsspeedandscale[...]affectingahundredtimesasmanypeopleastheIndustrialRevolutionandsettinginmotionadramaticrebalancingofeconomicandgeopoliticalforces(UnitedNations,2011a;UnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme,2013).

Notwithstandingthesegains,furtherdevelopmentalprogressisurgentlyneededthroughoutthedevelopingworld.Morethan1.5billionpeopleremaininmultidimensionalpoverty,energyinsecurityisstillwidespread,inequalityofincomeandaccesstosocialservicesispersistentlyhigh,andtheenvironmentalresourcebaseonwhichhumansrelyisdeterioratinginmultipleways(MillenniumEcosystemAssessment,2005;Bazilianetal.,2010;UnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme,2013).Moreover,unavoidableclimatechangewillamplifythechallengesofdevelopment:climateimpactsareexpectedtosloweconomicgrowthandexacerbatepoverty,andcurrentfailurestoaddressemergingimpactsarealreadyerodingthebasisforsustainabledevelopment(WGIISPM).

Thus,thechallengeconfrontingdevelopingcountriesistopreserveandbuildonthedevelopmental

achievementstodate,sharingthembroadlyandequitablyacrosstheirpopulations,buttodosoviaasustainabledevelopmentpathwaythatdoesnotreproducethefossilfuelbasedandemissions


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intensiveconventionalpathwaybywhichthedevelopedworldmovedfrompovertytoprosperity.Facedwiththisdilemma,developingcountrieshavesoughtevidencethatsuchalternativedevelopmentpathwaysexist,lookinginparticulartodevelopedcountriestotaketheleadduringthetwodecadessincetheUNFCCCwasnegotiated.Somesuchevidencehasemerged,intheformofavarietyofincipientclimatepolicyexperiments(seeSection15.6,15.7)thatappeartohave

generatedsomeinnovationinlowcarbontechnologies(seeSection4.4)andmodestlycurbedemissionsinsomecountries(seeSection5.3).

Developingcountrieshavesteppedforwardwithsignificantactionstoaddressclimatechange,butwillneedtobuildmitigativeandadaptivecapacityiftheyaretorespondyetmoreeffectively(seeSection4.6).Morebroadly,theunderlyingdeterminantsofdevelopmentpathwaysindevelopingcountriesareoftennotalignedtowardasustainablepathway(seeSections4.3,4.5).Atthesametime,developingcountriesareinsomewayswellpositionedtoshifttowardsustainablepathways:mostdevelopingcountriesarestillintheprocessofbuildingtheirurbanandindustrialinfrastructureandcanavoidlockin(seeSections4.5,5.6).Manyarealsointheprocessofestablishingtheculturalnormsandlifestylesofanemergingmiddleclass,andcandosowithoutreproducingthe

consumerist

values

of

many

developed

countries

(4.3,

4.4).

Some

barriers,

such

as

lack

of

access

to

financialandtechnologicalresources,canbeovercomethroughinternationalcooperationbasedonprinciplesofequityandfairburdensharing(seeSections4.6,6.3).

4.2 Approachesandindicators

ThissectionmapsoutthevariousconceptualapproachestotheissuesofSD(4.2.1),equity(4.2.2),andtheirlinkagestoclimatechangeandclimatepolicy.

4.2.1 Sustainabilityandsustainabledevelopment(SD)

4.2.1.1 Definingandmeasuringsustainability

ThemostfrequentlyquoteddefinitionofSDisdevelopmentthatmeetstheneedsofthepresentwithoutcompromisingtheabilityoffuturegenerationstomeettheirownneeds ,fromtheBrundtlandReport(WorldCommissiononEnvironmentandDevelopment,1987).Thisdefinitionacknowledgesatensionbetweensustainabilityanddevelopment(Jabareen,2006),andthatdevelopmentobjectivesaimatmeetingbasicneedsforallcitizensandsecuringtheminasustainablemanner(Murdiyarso,2010).OneofthefirstdefinitionsofSD(PrescottAllen,1980)referstoadevelopmentprocessthatiscompatiblewiththepreservationofecosystemsandspecies.

ApopularconceptualizationofSDgoesbeyondsecuringneedsandpreservingtheenvironmentandinvolvesthreepillarsorthreebottomlinesofsustainability:environmental,economic,andsocialaspects(Dobson,1991;Elkington,1998;FlintandDanner,2001;Popeetal.,2004;Sneddonetal.,

2006;Murdiyarso,2010;Okereke,2011).Thereissomevariationinthearticulationofthethreespheres,withsomescholars arguingforanequalappraisaloftheircoevolutionandmutualinteractions,andotherspositingahierarchywitheconomicactivitiesembeddedinthesocialmatrix,whichisitselfgroundedintheecosphere(Levin,2000;Fischeretal.,2007).ThisbroadSDframeworkisequallyrelevantforrichcountriesconcernedwithgrowth,wellbeing,humandevelopment,andlifestyles.

Awellknowndistinctionopposesweaksustainabilitytostrongsustainabilityapproaches(Neumayer,2010).Theformerreliesontheassumptionthathumanmadecapitalcanreplacenaturalresourcesandecosystemserviceswithahighdegreeofsubstitutability.Strongsustainability,incontrast,takestheviewthatcertaincriticalnaturalstockssuchastheclimatesystemandbiodiversitycannotbereplacedbyhumanmadecapitalandmustbemaintained.Weak

sustainabilityisoftenbelievedtobeinherenttoeconomicmodellingthataggregatesallformsofcapitaltogether(DietzandNeumayer,2007),buteconomicmodelsandindicatorscanaccommodate


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anydegreeofsubstitutabilitybetweendifferentformsofcapital(FleurbaeyandBlanchet,2013).ThelinkagebetweenstrongsustainabilityandIAMsisdiscussedinSathayeetal.(2011).Adifferentbutrelatedissueiswhetheroneshouldevaluatedevelopmentpathsonlyintermsofhumanwellbeing,whichdependsontheenvironmentservices(MillenniumEcosystemAssessment,2005),oralsoaccountfornaturalsystemsasintrinsicallyvaluable(McShane,2007;Attfield,2008).

Sustainabilityiscloselyrelatedtoresilience(AR5WII2.5and20.220.6,Folkeetal.,(2010),Gallopin,(2006),Goerneretal.,(2009))andvulnerability(Kates,2001;ClarkandDickson,2003;IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange,2012a).Akeypremiseofthisdirectionofresearchisthatsocialandbiophysicalprocessesareinterdependentandcoevolving(PolskyandEakin,2011).Thebiosphereitselfisacomplexadaptivesystem,themonitoringofwhichisstillperfectible(Levin,2000;Thuiller,2007).Criticalperspectivesontheseconcepts,whenappliedtoSDanalysis,canbefoundinTurner(2010)andCannonandMllerMahn(2010).

Althoughtherearevariousconceptionsofsustainabilityintheliterature,thereareinternationallyagreedprinciplesofSDadoptedbyheadsofstatesandgovernmentsatthe1992UNConferenceonEnvironmentandDevelopment(UNCED)andreaffirmedatsubsequentreviewandimplementation

conferences(UnitedNations,1992a,1997,2002,2012a).Akeyguidingprincipleis:Therighttodevelopmentmustbefulfilledsoastoequitablymeetdevelopmentalandenvironmentalneedsofpresentandfuturegenerations(1992RioDeclarationPrinciple3).TheRioprincipleswerereaffirmedattheJune2012summitlevelUNConferenceonSD.

Box 4.2 Sustainable development indicators (SDI)

WhenSDbecameaprominentconsiderationinpolicymakingintheearly1990s,SDIinitiativesflourished.Pressurestateresponse(PSR)andcapitalaccountingbased(CAB)frameworks,inparticular,werewidelyusedtoassesssustainability.ThePSRapproachwasfurthermodifiedasdrivingforcestateresponse(DSR)bytheUnitedNationsConferenceonSustainableDevelopment

(UNCSD)(2001)anddrivingforcepressurestateimpactresponse(DPSIR)bytheUnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme(UNEP)(UNEP,1997,2000,2002).TheSystemofIntegratedEnvironmentalEconomicAccounting(SEEA)oftheUnitedNationsoffersawealthofinformationaboutthestateofecosystemsandiscurrentlyunderrevisionandexpansion.1TheCABapproachisembodiedintheAdjustedNetSavingsindicatoroftheWorldBank(2003,2011),whichismentionedinSection4.3and14.1ofthisreport.Itisbasedontheeconomictheoryofgenuinesavings(understoodasthevariationofallnaturalandmanmadecapitalstocks,evaluatedatcertainspecificaccountingprices),whichshowsthatonapaththatmaximizesthediscountedutilitariansum,anegativevalueforgenuinesavingsimpliesthatthecurrentlevelofwellbeingisnotsustainable(HamiltonandClemens,1999;Pezzey,2004).

GeneralpresentationsandcriticalassessmentsofSDIscanbefoundinalargeliterature(Daly,1996;

Aronssonetal.,1997;PezzeyandToman,2002;Lawn,2003;HamiltonandAtkinson,2006;Asheim,2007;DietzandNeumayer,2007;Neumayer,2010;Martinet,2012;MoriandChristodoulou,2012;FleurbaeyandBlanchet,2013).Thisliteratureispervadedbyaconcernforcomprehensivenessi.e.,recordingallimportantaspectsofwellbeing,equity,andnaturepreservationforcurrentandfuturegenerationsandaccuracyi.e.,avoidingarbitraryorunreliableweightingoftherelevantdimensionswhensynthesizingmultidimensionalinformation.Thegeneralconclusionofthisliteratureisthatthereiscurrentlynosatisfactoryempiricalindicatorofsustainability.

AlimitationofthePSRmodelisthatitfailstoidentifycausalrelations,anditoversimplifiesthelinksbetweendimensions.Itismoreoverbaseduponaggregateindices,whichlosemuchinformationcontainedintheunderlyingindicators.AnimportantlimitationoftheSEEAisthatsocialand

1Documentationisavailableathttp://unstats.un.org/unsd/envaccounting/seea.asp.


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institutionalissuesareessentiallyleftout,anditsstockandflowapproachisproblematicwithrespecttoenvironmentalandsocialaspectsthatdonothaveamarketprice.Similarly,computingCABindicatorscompoundsthedifficultyofcomprehensivelyestimatingtheevolutionofcapitalstockswiththedifficultyofcomputingtheaccountingprices.Marketpricesdoproviderelevantinformationforvaluingcapitalstocksinaperfectlymanagedeconomy(asshownbyWeitzman

(1976)),butmaybeverymisleadinginactualconditions(DasguptaandMler,2000;Arrowetal.,2012).

4.2.1.2 Linkswithclimatechangeandclimatepolicy

Theliteratureonthecomplexrelationsbetweenclimatechange,climatepolicies,andSDislarge(Swartetal.,2003;Robinsonetal.,2006;Bizikovaetal.,2007;Sathayeetal.,2007;Thuiller,2007;Akimotoetal.,2012;Janetosetal.,2012).ThelinksbetweenSDandclimateissuesareexaminedindetailinWGIIChapter20.MappingouttheselinksisalsoimportantinthisWGIIIreport,andisdoneinthissection.

Threemainlinkagescanbeidentified,eachofwhichcontainsmanyelements.First,theclimatethreatconstrainspossibledevelopmentpaths,andsufficientlydisruptiveclimatechangecouldprecludeanyprospectforsustainablefuture(WGIIChapter19).Inthisperspective,aneffectiveclimateresponseisnecessarilyanintegralobjectiveofanSDstrategy.

Second,therearetradeoffsbetweenclimateresponsesandbroaderSDgoals,becausesomeclimateresponsescanimposeotherenvironmentalpressures,haveadversedistributionaleffects,drawresourcesawayfromotherdevelopmentalpriorities,orotherwiseimposelimitationsongrowthanddevelopment(Sections4.6,7.11,8.9,9.8,10.10,11.9,12.8).Section4.4examineshowtoavoidsuchtradeoffsbychangingbehaviouralpatternsanddecouplingemissionsandgrowth,and/ordecouplinggrowthandwellbeing.

Third,therearemultiplepotentialsynergiesbetweenclimateresponsesandbroaderSDobjectives.Climateresponsesmaygeneratecobenefitsforhumanandeconomicdevelopment(Sections3.6,

4.8,6.6,7.9,8.7,9.6,10.8,11.7).Atamorefundamentallevel,capacitiesunderlyinganeffectiveclimateresponseoverlapstronglywithcapacitiesforSD(Section4.6,5.3).

Akeymessageofthisreportisthatdesigningasuccessfulclimatepolicymayrequiregoingbeyondanarrowfocusonmitigationandadaptation,beyondtheanalysisofafewcobenefitsofclimatepolicy,andmayinsteadrequiremainstreamingclimateissuesintothedesignofcomprehensiveSDstrategies,includingatlocalandregionallevels.Figure4.1illustratesthedifferentperspectivesfromwhichclimatepolicycanbeenvisioned.Inthebroadest,boldestperspective,thechoiceofthedevelopmentpath(seeSections4.5,6.1)isatstake.

4.2.2 Equityanditsrelationtosustainabledevelopmentandclimatechange

Equity

is

prominent

in

research

and

policy

debates

about

SD

and

climate,

both

as

distributive

equity

(distributionofresourcesincontextssuchasburdensharing,distributionofwellbeinginthebroadercontextofsocialjustice,seeSections3.3,4.4,4.6)andproceduralequity(participationindecisionmaking,seeSection4.3).Variousaspectsofthegeneralconcept,asdevelopedinsocialethics,areintroducedinSection3.2underthenameoffairnessandjustice.(Inthischapterthetermsequity,fairness,andjusticearenotdistinguishedbutareusedaccordingtocommonusagedependingoncontext).Theaimofthissubsectionistoanalyzethelinksbetweenequity,SD,andclimateissues.


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Figure 4.1.Three frameworks for thinking about mitigation

EquitybetweengenerationsunderliestheverynotionofSD.Figure4.2,avariantofafigurefromHowarthandNorgaard(1992),illustratessustainabilityasthepossibilityforfuturegenerationstoreachatleastthesamelevelofwellbeingasthecurrentgeneration.Itshowsinparticularthatsustainabilityisamatterofdistributiveequity,notofefficiency,evenifeliminatinginefficiencies

affectingfuturesustainablewellbeingmayimprovesustainability,asstressedinGrubbetal.(2013).

Therehasbeenarecentsurgeofresearchonintergenerationalequity,motivatedbydissatisfactionwiththetraditionofdiscountingtheutilityoffuturegenerationsintheanalysisofgrowthpaths(see,e.g.,Asheim(2007),RoemerandSuzumura(2002)forrecentsyntheses).ThedebateondiscountingisreviewedinSection3.6.2.Recentliteraturepresentsnewargumentsderivingtheimperativeofsustainingwellbeingacrossgenerationsfrommorebasicequityprinciples(Asheimetal.,2001,2012).


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Figure 4.2.The well-being level of the current generation is sustainable if it does not exceed themaximum sustainable well-being level of the future generations independently of whether one is oris not on the possibility frontier. Modified from Howarth and Norgaard (1992).

EquitywithineverygenerationisoftenconsideredanintrinsiccomponentofSDlinkedtothesocialpillar.TheMillenniumDevelopmentGoals(MDGs)maybeseenasoneindicationofamoreexplicitglobalcommitmenttothesocialpillar(UnitedNations,2000).Yet,therelationbetweenequitywithingenerationsandSDiscomplex. Attemptingtomeettheneedsoftheworldspoorby

proliferatingtheconsumptionpatternsandproductionprocessesoftheworldsrichestpopulationswouldbeunsustainable(MillenniumEcosystemAssessment,2005;Rockstrmetal.,2009b;Steffenetal.,2011;IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange,2014).Suchascenariowouldnotlikelyplayoutwellfortheworldspoor.Environmentalissuesareinterwovenwiththefabricofracial,social,andeconomicinjustice.Environmentalcostsandbenefitsareoftendistributedsothatthosewhoalreadysufferothersocioeconomicdisadvantagestendtobearthegreatestburden(Okereke,2011).

Figure4.3illustratesthenormativeframeworkinwhichaSDpathcanbegroundedoncertainvalues(wellbeing,equity)andinterrelatedgoals(developmentandconservation),andthesynergiesandtradeoffsbetweenSDandclimatepolicy,withproceduralequityanditerativelearningnurturing

each

step,

from

conceptualization

to

implementation.


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Figure 4.3.Links between SD, equity, and climate policy

Intherestofthissection,wefocusononekeydimensionofequitythatisofcentralimportancetointernationalnegotiationstowardaneffectiveglobalresponsetoclimatechange. Asinmanyothercontexts,fundamentalquestionsofresourceallocationandburdensharingariseinclimatechange,andthereforeequityprinciplesareinvokedanddebated.Threelinesofargumenthavebeenput

forwardtojustifyareferencetoequityinthiscontext(Section4.6examinesthedetailsofburdensharingprinciplesandframeworksinaclimateregime.)

Thefirstjustificationisthenormativeclaimthatitismorallypropertoallocateburdensassociatedwithourcommonglobalclimatechallengeaccordingtoethicalprinciples.ThebroadsetofethicalargumentsforascribingmoralobligationstoindividualnationshasbeenreviewedinSection3.3,drawingimplicitlyuponacosmopolitanviewofjustice,whichpositsthatsomeofthebasicrightsanddutiesthatarisebetweenpeoplewithinnationsalsoholdbetweenpeopleofdifferentnations.

Thesecondjustificationisthelegalclaimthatcountrieshaveacceptedtreatycommitmentstoactagainstclimatechangethatincludethecommitmenttosharetheburdenofactionequitably.ThisclaimderivesfromthefactthatsignatoriestotheUNFCCChaveagreedthat:Partiesshouldprotect

theclimatesystemforthebenefitofpresentandfuturegenerationsofhumankind,onthebasisofequityandinaccordancewiththeircommonbutdifferentiatedresponsibilitiesandrespectivecapabilities(UNFCCC,2002).Thesecommitmentsareconsistentwithabodyofsoftlawandnormssuchasthenoharmruleaccordingtowhichastatemustprevent,reduceorcontroltheriskofseriousenvironmentalharmtootherstates(StockholmConvention(UNEP,1972),Riodeclaration(UnitedNations,1992b),Stone(2004)).Inaddition,ithasbeennotedthatclimatechangeadverselyaffectsarangeofhumanrightsthatareincorporatedinwidelyratifiedtreaties(Aminzadeh,2006;Humphreys,2009;Knox,2009;WewerinkeandYuIII,2010;Bodansky,2010).

Thethirdjustificationisthepositiveclaimthatequitableburdensharingwillbenecessaryiftheclimatechallengeistobeeffectivelymet.Thisclaimderivesfromthefactthatclimatechangeisaclassiccommonsproblem(Hardin,1968;Soroos,1997;Buck,1998;Folke,2007)(alsoseeSection

13.2.2.4).Aswithanycommonsproblem,thesolutionliesincollectiveaction(Ostrom,1990).Thisistrueattheglobalscaleaswellasthelocal,onlymorechallengingtoachieve(Ostrometal.,1999).


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Inducingcooperationrelies,toanimportantdegree,onconvincingothersthatoneisdoingonesfairshare.Thisiswhynotionsofequitableburdensharingareconsideredimportantinmotivatingactorstoeffectivelyrespondtoclimatechange.Theyareevenmoreimportantgiventhatactorsarenotasequalastheproverbialcommoners,wheretheverynameassertshomogeneity(Milanovi etal.,2007). Tothecontrary,thereareimportantasymmetriesorinequalitiesbetweenstakeholders

(Okerekeetal.,2009;Okereke,2010):asymmetryincontributiontoclimatechange(pastandpresent),invulnerabilitytotheimpactsofclimatechange,incapacitytomitigatetheproblem,andinpowertodecideonsolutions.Otheraspectsoftherelationbetweenintragenerationalequityandclimateresponseincludethegenderissuesnotedin4.2.1.2,andtheroleofvirtueethicsandcitizenattitudesinchanginglifestylesandbehaviours(Dobson,2007;Lane,2012),atopicanalyzedinSection4.4.

Young(2013)hasidentifiedthreegeneralconditionswhichapplytotheclimatecontextunderwhichthesuccessfulformationandeventualeffectivenessofacollectiveactionregimemayhingeonequitableburdensharing:theabsenceofactorswhoarepowerfulenoughtocoercivelyimposetheirpreferredburdensharingarrangements;theinapplicabilityofstandardutilitarianmethodsof

calculating

costs

and

benefits;

and

the

fact

that

regime

effectiveness

depends

on

a

long

term

commitmentofmemberstoimplementitsterms.Withrespecttoclimatechange,ithaslongbeennotedthataregimethatmanymembersfindunfairwillbefaceseverechallengestoitsadoptionorbevulnerabletofesteringtensionsthatjeopardizeitseffectiveness(Harris,1996;Mller,1999;Young,2012).Specifically,anyattempttoprotecttheclimatebykeepinglivingstandardslowforalargepartoftheworldpopulationwillfacestrongpoliticalresistance,andwillalmostcertainlyfail(RobertsandParks,2007;Baeretal.,2009).Whilecostsofparticipationmayprovideincentivesfornoncooperationordefectionintheshortterm,theclimatenegotiationsarenotaoneshotgame,andtheyareembeddedinamuchbroaderglobalcontext;climatechangeisonlyoneofmanyglobalproblemsenvironmental,economic,andsocialthatwillrequireeffectivecooperativeglobalgovernanceifdevelopmentandindeedhumanwelfareistobesustainedinthelongterm(Singer,2004;Jasanoff,2004;SpethandHaas,2006;Kjellen,2008).

Despitethesethreelinesofjustification,thequestionoftherolethatequitydoesorshouldplayintheestablishmentofglobalclimatepolicyandburdensharinginparticularisnonethelesscontroversial(Victor,1998).Thefactthatthereisnouniversallyacceptedglobalauthoritytoenforceparticipationistakenbysometomeanthatsovereignty,notequityistheprevailingprinciple.Suchaconceptionimpliesthatthebottomlinecriterionforaselfenforcing(Barrett,2005)cooperativeagreementwouldbesimplythateveryoneisnoworseoffthanthestatusquo.ThishasbeentermedInternationalParetianism(PosnerandWeisbach,2010),anditsironic,evenperverseresultshavebeenpointedout:anoptimalclimatetreatycouldwellrequiresidepaymentstorichcountriesliketheUnitedStatesandrisingcountrieslikeChina,andindeedpossiblyfromverypoorcountrieswhichareextremelyvulnerabletoclimatechangesuchasBangladesh."(PosnerandWeisbach,2010).

However,bothcriticsandadvocatesoftheimportanceofequityintheclimatenegotiationsacknowledgethatgovernmentscanchoosetoactonmoralratherthanpurelyselfinterestedprinciples(DeCanioandFremstad,2010;PosnerandWeisbach,2010,2012;Baer,2013;Jamieson,2013)(seealsoSection3.10).Whetherornotstatesbehaveasrationalactors,giventhesignificantglobalgainstobehadfromcooperation,thisleavesampleroomfordiscussionoftheroleofequityinthedistributionofthoseglobalgains,whilestillleavingallpartiesbetteroff(Stone,2004).

Whiletheabovediscussionfocusesonequityamongnations,equallyrelevantconcernsregardingequitywithinnationsalsoarise,andindeedcanbeoverridingdeterminantsoftheprospectsforclimatepolicytobeadopted.Demandsforequityhavebeenarticulatedbylabourcommunitiesprimarilyintermsofajusttransition(InternationalLabourOffice,2010;NewellandMulvaney,

2013),andoftenbymarginalizedpopulationsandracialminoritiesintermsofenvironmentaljusticeandjustsustainability(AgyemanandEvans,2004;WalkerandBulkeley,2006;Shiva,2008).While


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theparticulardemandsarehighlylocationandcontextspecific,thebroadconcernsareproceduralanddistributivejusticewithreducedpowerasymmetries,asunderscoredthroughoutthischapter.

4.3 Determinants,driversandbarriers

ThissectionexploresthedeterminantsofSD,emphasizinghoweachinfluencestheextenttowhichsocietiescanbalancetheeconomic,social,andenvironmentalpillarsofSD,whilehighlightingpotentialsynergiesandtradeoffsforthebuildingofmitigativeandadaptivecapacityandtherealizationofeffectiveandequitablemitigationandadaptationstrategies.Determinantsrefertosocialprocesses,properties,andartefacts,aswellasnaturalresources,whichtogetherconditionandmediatethecourseofsocietaldevelopment,andthustheprospectsforSD.WhendeterminantsfacilitateSDtheyactdriversandwhentheyconstrainittheyactasbarriers.

Thedeterminantsdiscussedinclude:thelegacyofdevelopmentrelations;governanceandpoliticaleconomy;populationanddemography;humanandsocialcapital;behaviour,culture,andvalues;technologyandinnovationprocesses;naturalresources;andfinanceandinvestment.These

determinants

are

interdependent,

characterized

by

feedbacks

that

blur

the

distinction

between

causeandeffect,andtheirrelativeimportancedependsoncontextseeanalogousdiscussioninthecontextofGHGemissiondriversin5.3.Theyarenotunique,andotherdeterminantssuchasleadership(JonesandOlken,2005),randomness(Holling,1973;Arthur,1989),orhumannature(Wilson,1978)couldbeaddedtothelist,buttheyarelessamenabletodeliberateinterventionbypolicymakersandotherdecisionmakersandhavethereforebeenexcluded.Whatfollowslaysthefoundationsforunderstandingconceptsthatrecurthroughoutthischapterandthosethatfollow.

4.3.1 LegacyofdevelopmentrelationsFollowingWorldWarII,security,economic,andhumanitarianrelationsbetweenrichnationsandpoornationswerecomingledandaddressedundertheumbrellaofdevelopment(Truman,1949;Sachs,Wolfgang,1999).Differingperspectivesonthemixedoutcomesofsixdecadesofdevelopment,andwhattheoutcomesmayindicateaboutunderlyingintentionsandcapabilities,informdifferentactorsindifferentwaysastowhatwillworktoaddressclimatechangeandthetransitiontoSD.Duringthe1950sand1960s,forexample,expectationswerethatpovertywouldbereduceddramaticallybytheendofthecentury(Rist,2003).Itwaswidelybelievedthateconomicdevelopmentcouldbeinstigatedthroughaidfromrichernations,bothfinancialandinkind.Developmentwasseenasaprocessofgoingthroughstagesstartingwithtransformingtraditionalagriculturethrougheducation,theintroductionofnewagriculturaltechnologies,improvedaccesstocapitalforfarmimprovements,andtheconstructionoftransportationinfrastructuretofacilitatemarkets.Improvedagriculturewouldreleaseworkersforanindustrialstageandtherebyincreaseopportunitiesforeducationandcommercialdevelopmentincities.Asdevelopmentproceeded,nationswouldincreasinglyacquiretheirownscientificcapabilitiesand,later,sophisticated

governancestructurestoregulatefinanceandindustryinthepublicgood,becomingwellrounded,wellgovernedeconomiescomparabletothoseofrichnations.

Bythe1970s,however,itwasclearthatdevelopmentwasnotonapathtofulfillingtheselinearexpectationsbecause:1)contributionsofaidfromtherichnationswerenotatlevelsanticipated;2)technologicalandinstitutionalchangeswereonlypartiallysuccessful,provedinappropriate,orhadunpredicted,unfortunateconsequences;3)requestsformilitaryaidandthesecurityandeconomicobjectivesofrichernationsinthecontextoftheColdWarwerefrequentlygivenpriorityoverpovertyreduction;and4)graft,patronage,andthefavouringofspecialinterestsdivertedfundsfrompovertyreduction.Thegeneralbeliefthatnationsnaturallywentthroughstagesofdevelopmenttobecomewellroundedeconomiesfadedbytheearly1980s.Greaterparticipationin

globaltrade,withitsimpliedspecialization,wasinvokedasthepathtoeconomicgrowth.Diverseothereffortsweremadetoimprovehowdevelopmentworked,butwithonlymodestsuccess,


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leavingmanyinrichandpoornationsconcernedaboutdevelopmentprocessandprospects(UnitedNations,2011a).

Layeringthegoalofenvironmentalsustainabilityontothegoalofpovertyreductionfurthercompoundedthelegacyofunmetexpectations(WorldCommissiononEnvironmentand

Development,

1987).

There

have

been

difficulties

determining,

shifting

to,

and

governing

for

sustainablepathways(Sanwal,2010)see4.3.2below.Thenegotiationofnewrulesforthemobilityofprivatecapitalandthedriveforglobalizationoftheeconomyalsocamewithnewexpectationsfordevelopment(Stiglitz,2002).TheMillenniumDevelopmentGoals(MDG)establishedin2000tobemetby2015areanexampleofhowsuchexpectationswerethoughttoberealizableintherapidlyevolvingtimesoftheglobalfinancialeconomy.Inretrospectandafterthe2008financialsectorinducedrecession,significantimprovementsarelargelyinChinaandIndiawhereeconomicgrowthacceleratedthroughprivatecapitalflowsindependentoftheMDGprocess.Excludingthesecountries,therecordismixedatbestandstillpoorinmostofAfrica(KeyzerandWesenbeeck,2007;Easterly,2009;UnitedNations,2011a).Additionally,sincethe1990s,greenhousegasemissionsbecameanotherfocusofcontention(RobertsandParks,2007;Penetrante,2011;Dryzeketal.,

2011).

The

developed

nations

became

rich

through

the

early

use

of

fossil

fuels

and

land

transformationsthatputGHGsintheatmosphere,imposingcostsonallpeople,richandpoor,throughclimateimpactsthatwillpersistovercenturies(Srinivasanetal.,2008).Connectionsbetweencausalandmoralresponsibilityarose,complicatingthelegacyofdevelopment.

Suchlegacyofunmetdevelopmentandsustainabilityexpectationsisopentomultipleinterpretations.Inrichernations,theevidencecanbeinterpretedtosupporttheviewsoffiscalconservativeswhoopposeaid,libertarianswhoopposehumanitarianandenvironmentalinterventions,progressiveswhourgethatmoreneedstobedonetoreachsocialandenvironmentalgoals,andsomeenvironmentalistswhourgedematerializationanddegrowthamongtherichasnecessarytomeettheneedsofthepoor.Inpoorernations,thelegacysimilarlysupportsvariousviewsincludingadistrustofrichnationsfornotdeliveringdevelopmentandenvironmental

assistanceaspromised,cynicismtowardtheintentionsandconceptualrationaleswhenitisprovided,andalsoawarinessofdevelopmentsunpredictedoutcomes.

Inbothdevelopedanddevelopingnationsthesediversesentimentsamongthepublic,policymakers,andclimatenegotiatorscontributetowhatphilosopherGardiner(2011b)referstoastheperfectmoralstormofclimatepolicy.Someanalystsarguethatthelegacyofdevelopmentandinterrelatedissuesofequitysocloudglobalclimatenegotiationsthatadhocagreementsandvoluntarypledgesarethemostthatcanbeachieved(Victor,2004)andconsiderationsofdevelopmentandequityarebetterleftaside(PosnerandWeisbach,2010),althoughthisleavesopenwhethersucharrangementscouldprovideanadequatelyambitiousclimateresponseconsistentwiththeUNFCCCsobjectives.(SeeSection4.6.2forfurtherdiscussionofperspectivesonequityinaclimateregime,andSection13.4.3forfurtherdiscussionofregimearchitectures).

4.3.2 GovernanceandpoliticaleconomyGovernanceandpoliticaleconomyarecriticaldeterminantsforSD,equity,andclimatechangemitigationbecausetheycircumscribetheprocessthroughwhichthesegoalsandhowtoattainthemarearticulatedandcontested.ThequestforequityandclimatechangemitigationinthecontextofSDthusnecessitatesanimprovedunderstandingandpracticeofgovernance(Biermannetal.,2009;Okerekeetal.,2009).Governanceinthebroadestsensereferstotheprocessesofinteractionanddecisionmakingamongactorsinvolvedinacommonproblem(Kooiman,2003;Hufty,2011).Itgoesbeyondnotionsofformalgovernmentorpoliticalauthorityandintegratesotheractors,networks,informalinstitutions,andincentivestructuresoperatingatvariouslevelsofsocialorganization(Rosenau,1990;ChotrayandStoker,2009).Inturn,climategovernancehasbeendefinedasthe

mechanismsandmeasures"aimedatsteeringsocialsystemstowardspreventing,mitigatingoradaptingtotherisksposedbyclimatechange(JagersandStripple,2003).Fromthisdefinition,it


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canbeseenasabroadphenomenonencompassingnotonlyformalpolicymakingbystates,butalltheprocessesthroughwhichauthorityisgeneratedandexertedtoaffectclimatechangeandsustainability.ThisincludespolicymakingbystatesbutalsobymanyotheractorsNGOs,TNCs,municipalities,forexampleoperatingacrossvariousscales(Okerekeetal.,2009).

Many

scholars

have

highlighted

the

challenges

associated

with

governing

for

SD

and

climate

change

(AdgerandJordan,2009;Levinetal.,2012).First,itinvolvesrethinkingthewayssocietyrelatestonatureandtheunderlyingbiophysicalsystems.Thisisrelevantinthecontextofthegrowingevidenceoftheimpactofhumanactivityontheplanetandtheunderstandingthatextraordinarydegreesofirreversibledamageandharmaredistinctpossibilitiesiftherightmeasuresarenottakenwithinanadequatetimescale(MillenniumEcosystemAssessment,2005;Rockstrmetal.,2009a).Second,governingclimatechangeinvolvescomplexintergenerationalconsiderations.Ontheonehand,causeandeffectofsomeenvironmentalimpactsandclimatechangeareseparatedbydecades,oftengenerations,andontheotherhand,thosewhobearthecostsofremediationandmitigationmaynotbetheonestoreapthebenefitsofavoidedharm(Biermann,2007).

Third,effectiveresponsetoclimatechangemayrequireafundamentalrestructuringoftheglobal

economicandsocialsystems,whichinturnwouldinvolveovercomingvestedmultipleinterestsandtheinertiaassociatedwithbehaviouralpatternsandcraftingnewinstitutionsthatpromotesustainability(Meadowsetal.,2004;MillenniumEcosystemAssessment,2005).Thischallengeisexacerbatedbythehugemismatchbetweentheplanninghorizonneededtoaddressglobalenvironmentalproblemsandclimatechangeandthetenureofdecisionmakers(Hovietal.,2009).

Fourth,andfinally,SDgovernancecutsacrossseveralrealmsofpolicyandorganization.Particularly,thegovernanceofmitigationandadaptationisanelementofacomplexandevolvingarenaofglobalenvironmentalgovernance,whichdealswithother,andoftenoverlapping,issuessuchasbiodiversityloss,desertification,watermanagement,trade,energysecurity,andhealth,amongothers(AdgerandJordan,2009;Brown,2009;Belletal.,2010;BalsigerandDebarbieux,2011;daFonsecaetal.,2012;Barketal.,2012).SitesofclimatechangegovernanceandpolicymakingarethusmultipleandarenotconfinedtotheUNFCCCandnationalrulemakingprocesses,asituationwhichraiseschallengesinrelationtocoordination,linkages,andsynergies(Ostrom,2010;Zelli,2011;Jinnah,2011)seeSections13.4,13.13,14.1,15.2,notablyFigure13.1foravisualsummary.

Theseconsiderationsexplainwhyclimategovernancehasattractedmorepoliticalcontroversythanotherissuesinrelationtoglobalsustainabilityanditsequityconsiderations.Someofthemainaspectsofthiscontroversyinclude:whoshouldparticipateindecisionmaking;howtomodulatepowerasymmetryamongstakeholders;howtoshareresponsibilityamongactors;whatideasandinstitutionsshouldgovernresponsemeasures;andwhereshouldinterventionsfocus?Questionsof

justiceareembeddedthroughout,aggravatedbythehighstakesinvolvedandthestarkasymmetryamongstatesandothersactorsintermsofcause,effect,andcapabilitytorespondtotheproblem

(OkerekeandDooley,2010;Okereke,2010;Schroederetal.,2012).Scholarshavelonganalyzedtheaboveissueswithinclimategovernance,offeringamultitudeofpossiblesolutions.Concerningparticipation,adeparturefromthetopdownapproachimpliedintheKyotoProtocoltowardsamorevoluntaryandbottomupapproachhasbeensuggested(Rayner,2010).Somearguethatlimitingparticipationtothe"mostcapable,responsibleandvulnerable"countriescanfosterprogresstowardmorestringentmitigationpolicy(Eckersley,2012).However,thelatterhasbeenopposedonthebasisthatitwouldfurtherexacerbateissuesofinequity(Aitken,2012;StevensonandDryzek,2012).Othershavediscussedtheneedtocreatespacesforcollaborativelearningtodebate,legitimize,andpotentiallyovercomeknowledgedividesbetweenexpertsandlaypeopleinsectoralclimatepolicydevelopment(Swansonetal.,2010;Armitageetal.,2011;Colfer,2011;Larsenetal.,2012)seeSection13.13forfurtherdetail.Onallocationof

responsibility,aglobalagreementhasbeenelusivenotmerelybecausepartiesandotherkeyactorshavedifferingconceptionsofafairallocation(Okereke,2008),butbecausethepertinentpoliciesare


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highlycontentiousgiventhecombinationoffactorsatplay,prominentamongwhicharefinance,politics,ineffectiveinstitutions,andvestedinterests.

Adefiningimageoftheclimategovernancelandscapeisthatkeyactorshavevastlydisproportionatecapacitiesandresources,includingthepolitical,financial,andcognitiveresourcesthatarenecessary

to

steer

the

behaviour

of

the

collective

within

and

across

territorial

boundaries

(Dingwerth

and

Pattberg,2009).Acentralelementofgovernancethereforerelatestohugeasymmetryinsuchresourcesandtheabilitytoexercisepowerorinfluenceoutcomes.Someactors,includinggovernments,makeuseofnegotiationpowerand/orlobbyingactivitiestoinfluencepolicydecisionsatmultiplescalesand,bydoingso,affectthedesignandthesubsequentallocationanddistributionofbenefitsandcostsresultingfromsuchdecisions(MarkussenandSvendsen,2005;BenvenistiandDowns,2007;Schfer,2009;Sandler,2010)seee.g.,Section15.5.2.Theproblem,however,alsoresidesinthefactthatthosethatwieldthegreatestpowereitherconsideritagainsttheirinteresttofacilitaterapidprogresstowardsagloballowcarboneconomyorinsistthattheacceptedsolutionsmustbealignedtoincreasetheirpowerandmaterialgains(SverudandSkjrseth,2007;Giddens,2009;Hulme,2009;Lohmann,2009,2010;OkerekeandMcDaniels,2012;Wittnebenetal.,2012).

The

most

notable

effect

of

this

is

that

despite

some

exceptions,

the

prevailing

organization

of

the

globaleconomy,whichconferssignificantpoweronactorsassociatedwithfossilfuelinterestsandwiththefinancialsector,hasprovidedthecontextforthesortsofgovernancepracticesofclimatechangethathavedominatedtodate(NewellandPaterson,2010).

Manyspecificgovernanceinitiatives,describedinSections13.13and15.3,whetherorganizedbystatesoramongnovelconfigurationsofactors,havefocusedoncreatingnewmarketsorinvestmentopportunities.Thisapplies,forexample,tocarbonmarkets(Paterson,2009),carbonoffsetting(BumpusandLiverman,2008;Lovelletal.,2009;CorberaandSchroeder,2011;Corbera,2012),investorledgovernanceinitiativessuchastheCarbonDisclosureProject(CDP)(Kolketal.,2008)orpartnershipssuchastheRenewableEnergyandEnergyEfficiencyPartnership(REEEP)(Parthanetal.,2010).Somescholarsfindthatcarbonmarketscancontributetoachievingalowfossilcarbon

transition,butrequirecarefuldesignstoachieveenvironmentalandwelfaregains(WoodandJotzo,2011;PezzeyandJotzo,2012;Springmann,2012;Bakametal.,2012).Othersnotethatsuchmechanismsarevulnerabletocapturebyspecialinterestsandagainsttheoriginalpurposesforwhichtheyareconceived.SeveralauthorshavediscussedthisprobleminthecontextoftheCleanDevelopmentMechanism(CDM)andtheEuropeanUnionEmissionsTradingScheme(EUETS)(Lohmann,2008;Cl,2010;OkerekeandMcDaniels,2012;Bhmetal.,2012).

GoverningforSDandclimatechangerequirescloseattentiontothreekeyissues.First,thereisaneedtounderstandcurrentgovernanceasencompassingmorethantheactorswithinformalgovernmentstructures,andtounderstandhowchoicesaredrivenbymorethanoptimaldecisionmakingtheory.Secondeffectivegovernancerequiresunderstandingthedynamicsthatdeterminewhetherandhowpolicyoptionsarelegitimized,andthenformallydeliberatedandadopted(ornot).

Consequently,itisnecessarytoexaminehowthesemodesofgovernancearedefinedandestablishedinthefirstplace,bywhomandforwhosebenefit,thusilluminatingtherelationshipandtensionsbetweeneffectivegovernanceandexistingtrendsinpoliticaleconomy.Third,thereisaneedtoexplorehowdifferentmodesofgovernancetranslateintooutcomes,affectingthedecisionsandactionsofactorsatmultiplescales,andtodrawlessonsabouttheirenvironmentaleffectivenessanddistributionalimplications.Whilesomearguethatstatesshouldstillberegardedaskeyagentsinsteeringsuchtransitions(Eckersley,2004;Weale,2009),mostdecisionmakingrelevanttoSDandclimateremainsfundamentallydecentralized.Akeychallengeofgovernanceisthustorecognizethepoliticaleconomycontextofthesedecisionmakers,toensureprocedurallyequitableprocessesthataddresstheallocationofresponsibilitiesandensuretransparencyandaccountabilityinanytransitiontowardsSD.


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4.3.3 PopulationanddemographyPopulationvariables,includingsize,density,andgrowthrate,aswellasage,sex,education,andsettlementstructures,playadeterminantroleincountriesSDtrajectories.Theirdrivers,inparticularfertility,mortality,andmigration,arereciprocallyinfluencedbydevelopmentpathways,includingevolvingpolicies,socioculturaltrends,aswellasbychangesintheeconomy(Bloom,

2011).Intheclimatechangecontext,populationtrendshavebeenshowntomatterbothformitigationeffortsaswellasforsocietiesadaptivecapacitiestoclimatechange(ONeilletal.,2001).

Currentdemographictrendsshowdistinctpatternsindifferentpartsoftheworld.WhilepopulationsizesareonadecliningtrajectoryinEasternEuropeandJapan,theyaresetforsignificantfurtherincreaseinmanydevelopingcountries(particularlyinAfricaandsouthwesternAsia)duetoaveryyoungpopulationagestructureandcontinuedhighlevelsoffertility.Asmostrecentprojectionsshow,theworldspopulationisalmostcertaintoincreasetobetween8and10billionbymidcentury.Afterthatperiod,uncertaintyincreasessignificantly,withthefuturetrendinbirthratesbeingthekeydeterminant,butitisalsoamplifiedbytheuncertaintyaboutfutureinfectiousdiseasemortalityandthestilluncertainconsequencesofclimatechangeonfuturemortalitytrajectories

(ONeillet

al.,

2001;

Lutz

and

KC,

2010;

United

Nations,

2011b;

Lee,

2011;

Scherbov

et

al.,

2011).

The

populationofSubSaharanAfricawillalmostcertainlydoubleandcouldstillincreasebyafactorofthreeormoredependingonthecourseoffertilityoverthecomingdecades,whichdependsprimarilyonprogressinfemaleeducationandtheavailabilityofreproductivehealthservices(Bongaarts,2009;Bloom,2011;BongaartsandSinding,2011).

Decliningfertilityrates,togetherwithcontinuedincreasesinlifeexpectancy,resultinsignificantpopulationageingaroundtheworld,withthecurrentlowfertilitycountriesbeingmostadvancedinthisprocess.Populationageingisconsideredamajorchallengeforthesolvencyofsocialsecuritysystems.Forpopulationsstillintheprocessoffertilitydecline,theexpectedburdenofageingisamoredistantprospect,andthedecliningbirthratesareexpectedtobringsomeneartermbenefits.Thisphaseintheuniversalprocessofanydemographictransition,whentheratioofchildrento

adultsisalreadydecliningandtheproportionofelderlyhasnotyetincreased,isconsideredawindowofopportunityforeconomicdevelopment,whichmayalsoresultinaneconomicreboundeffectleadingtohigherpercapitaconsumptionandemissions(BloomandCanning,2000).

Lowdevelopmentiswidelyunderstoodtocontributetohighpopulationgrowth,whichdeclinesonlyaftertheappearanceofwidespreadaccesstokeydevelopmentalneedssuchasperinatalandmaternalhealthcare,andfemaleeducationandempowerment.Conversely,highpopulationgrowthiswidelyregardedasanobstacletoSDbecauseittendstomakeeffortssuchastheprovisionofcleandrinkingwaterandagriculturalgoodsandtheexpansionofhealthservicesandschoolenrolmentratesdifficult(Dyson,2006;Potts,2007;PimentelandPaoletti,2009).Thishasgivenrisetothefearofaviciouscircleofunderdevelopmentandgenderinequityyieldinghighpopulationgrowthandenvironmentaldegradation,inturninhibitingthedevelopmentnecessarytobringdownfertility(CaoleandHoover,1958;EhrlichandHoldren,1971;Dasgupta,1993).However,historyshowsthatcountriescanbreakthisviciouscirclewiththerightsocialpolicies,withanearlyemphasisoneducationandfamilyplanning;prominentexamplesincludeSouthKoreaandMauritius,whichwereusedinthe1950sastextbookexamplesofcountriestrappedinsuchaviciouscircle(Meade,1967).

Withrespecttoadaptationtoclimatechange,theliteratureonpopulationandenvironmenthasbeguntoexploremorecloselypeoplesvulnerabilitytoclimatestressors,includingvariabilityandextremeevents,andtoanalyzetheiradaptivecapacityandrelianceonenvironmentalresourcestocopewithadversitiesandadapttogradualchangesandshocks(Bankoffetal.,2004;Adgeretal.,2009)seealso4.6.1andAR5WGII.Generallyspeaking,notonlydoesthenumberofpeople

matter,butsodoestheircompositionbyage,gender,placeofresidence,andlevelofeducation,aswellastheinstitutionalcontextthatinfluencespeoplesdecisionmakinganddevelopment


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opportunities(Dyson,2006).Onewidelyandcontroversiallydiscussedformofadaptationcanbeinternationalmigrationinducedbyclimatechange.Thereisoftenpublicconcernthatmassivemigrationofthissortcouldcontributetopoliticalinstabilityandpossiblyconflict.However,amajorrecentreviewofourknowledgeinthisfieldhasconcludedthatmuchenvironmentallyinducedmigrationislikelytobeinternalmigrationandthereisverylittlesciencebasedevidencefor

assessingpossibleconsequencesofenvironmentalchangeonlargeinternationalmigrationstreams(UKGovernmentOfficeforScience,2011).

4.3.4 ValuesandbehavioursResearchhasidentifiedarangeofindividualandcontextualpredictorsofbehavioursinfavouroragainstclimatechangemitigation,rangingfromindividuals'psychologicalneedstoculturalandsocialorientationstowardstimeandnature(Swimetal.,2009)seeSections2.4,3.10,and5.5.Belowwediscusssomeofthesefactors,focusingonhumanvaluesthatinfluenceindividualandcollectivebehavioursandaffectourprioritiesandactionsconcerningthepursuitofSD,equitygoals,andclimatemitigation.Valueshavebeendefinedasenduringbeliefsthatpertaintodesirableendstatesorbehaviours,transcendspecificsituations,guideselectionorevaluationofbehaviourand

eventsandareorderedbyimportance(citingSchwartzandBilsky,1987,p.551;Pepperetal.,2009,p.127).Valuesprovideguidesforlivingthebestwaypossibleforindividuals,socialgroupsandcultures(citingRohan,2000,p.263;Pepperetal.,2009,p.127)andsoinfluenceactionsatalllevelsofsocietyincludingtheindividual,thehousehold,thefirm,civilsociety,andgovernment.Individualsacquirevaluesthroughsocializationandlearningexperience(Pepperetal.,2009)andvaluesthusrelatetomanyoftheotherdeterminantsdiscussedinthissection.Valuesmayberootedincultural,religious,andotherbeliefsystems,whichmaysometimesconflictwithscientificunderstandingsofenvironmentalrisks.Inparticular,distinctvaluesmayinfluenceperceptionsandinterpretationsofclimateimpactsandhenceclimateresponses(Wolfetal.,2013).

TherelevanceofvaluestoSDand,particularly,toecologicallyconscious(consumer)behaviour,isrelatedtothenatureofenvironmentalissuesassocialdilemmas,whereshorttermnarrow

individualinterestsconflictwiththelongertermsocialinterest(Pepperetal.,2009).Researchershavehighlightedtheroleofnonselfishvaluesthatpromotethewelfareofothers(includingnature),notingthatsomebutnotallindigenoussocietiesareknowntofocusoncollectiveasopposedtoindividualinterestsandvalues,whichoftenresultinpositiveresourceconservationstrategiesandwellbeing(Gadgiletal.,1993;Sobrevila,2008;Watsonetal.,2011).However,itiswellknownthatarangeoffactorsalsomediatetheimpactofvaluesonbehavioursuchthatthelinkfromvaluestoecologicallyconsciousbehaviourisoftenloose(Pepperetal.,2009).

Infact,thisvalueactiongapsuggeststhatpursuingclimatechangemitigationandSDgloballymayrequiresubstantialchangesinbehaviourintheshorttermalongwithatransformationofhumanvaluesinthelongterm,e.g.,progressivelychangingconceptionsandattitudestowardbiophysical

systemsandhumaninteraction(Gladwinetal.,1995;Leiserowitzetal.,2005;VlekandSteg,2007;Folkeetal.,2011a).Changinghumanvalueswouldrequireabetterunderstandingofcrossculturalbehaviouraldifferencesthatinturnrelatetoenvironmental,economic,andpoliticalhistories(Norenzayan,2011).

Behaviouralchangecanbeinducedbychangesinformalandcivilinstitutionsandgovernance,humanvalues(Jackson,2005a;Folkeetal.,2011a;Fischeretal.,2012),perceptionsofriskandcausality,andeconomicincentives.Removingperversesubsidiesforenvironmentallyharmfulproducts,favouringgreenerconsumptionandtechnologies,adoptingmorecomprehensiveformsofbiophysicalandeconomicaccounting,andprovidingsaferworkingconditionsareconsideredcentralforachievingproSDbehaviouralchange(LebelandLorek,2008;Thgersen,2010;LeBlanc,2010).Yetbehaviourexperiments(OsbaldistonandSchott,2012)suggestthereisnosilverbulletfor

fosteringecologicallyconsciousbehaviour,asfavourableactions(e.g.,toconserveenergy)aretriggeredbydifferentstimuli,includinginformation,regulationoreconomicrewards,andinfluenced


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bythenatureoftheissueitself.Furthermore,peopleareabletoexpressbothrelativelyhighlevelsofenvironmentalconcernandrelativelyhighlevelsofmaterialismsimultaneously(Gaterslebenetal.,2010).Thissuggeststheneedtobeissue,context,andculturallyawarewhendesigningspecificactionstofosterproSDbehaviour,asbothenvironmentalandmaterialisticconcernsmustbeaddressed.Thesecomplexitiesunderscorethechallengesinchangingbeliefs,preferences,habits,

androutines(Southerton,2012)seeSections4.4and5.5.2.

4.3.5 HumanandsocialcapitalLevelsofhumanandsocialcapitalalsocriticallyinfluenceatransitiontowardSDandthedesignandimplementationofmitigationandadaptationstrategies.Humancapitalresultsfromindividualandcollectiveinvestmentsinacquiringknowledgeandskillsthatbecomeusefulforimprovingwellbeing(Iyer,2006).Suchknowledgeandskillscanbeacquiredthroughformalschoolingandtraining,aswellasinformallythroughcustomarypracticesandinstitutions,includingcommunitiesandfamilies.Humancapitalcanthusbeviewedasacriticalcomponentofabroaderencompassinghumancapability,i.e.,apersonsabilitytoachieveagivenlistoffunctioningsorachievements,whichdependonarangeofpersonalandsocialfactors,includingeducation,age,gender,health,income,

nutritionalknowledge,andenvironmentalconditions,amongothers(Sen,1997,2001).SeeClark(2009)andSchokkaert(2009)forareviewofSen'scapabilityapproachanditscritiques.

Economistshavelongconsideredimprovementsinhumancapitalakeyexplanatoryreasonbehindtheevolutionofeconomicsystems,intermsofgrowthandconstantinnovation(Schultz,1961;HealyandCote,2001).Macroeconomicresearchshowsastrongcorrelationbetweenlevelsofeconomicdevelopmentandlevelsofhumancapitalandviceversa(Schultz,2003;Iyer,2006),whilemicroeconomicstudiesrevealapositiverelationshipbetweenincreasesinthequantityandqualityofformaleducationandfutureearnings(Duflo,2001).Gainsinhumancapitalcanbepositivelycorrelatedtoeconomicgrowthandefficiency,butalsotonutritional,health,andeducationstandards(Schultz,1995).Assuch,improvementsinhumancapitalprovideabasisforSD,astheyshapecountriessocioeconomicsystemsandinfluencepeoplesabilitytomakeinformedchoices.

Seemingly,humancapitaloftenalsoexplainsthedevelopmentandsurvivalofbusinessventures(ColomboandGrilli,2005;Patzelt,2010;GimmonandLevie,2010),whichareanimportantsourceofinnovationanddiffusionofprinciplesandtechnologiesthatcancontributetoSDandtoambitiousmitigationandadaptationgoals(MarvelandLumpkin,2007;Terjesen,2007).

Additionally,agrowingbodyofliteratureineconomics,geography,andpsychology(reviewedinSections2.4,2.6.6and3.10aswellasinWGIIChapter2)hasshownthatthediversityofenvironmental,socioeconomic,educationalandculturalcontextsinwhichindividualsmakedecisionsshapetheirwillingnessand/orabilitytoengageinmitigationandadaptationaction(Lorenzonietal.,2007).Itisimportanttodistinguishbetweenformallyacquiredknowledgeonclimatechangeoftenbasedonscientificdevelopmentsandtraditionalknowledgeonclimate

relatedissues(SmithandSharp,2012),aswellastorecognizethattherelativevalidityofbothtypesofknowledgetodifferentaudiences,andthemeaningandrelevanceofpersonalengagement,willbeinfluencedbyindividualperceptions,preferences,values,andbeliefs.Therefore,knowledgeonclimateissuesdoesnotaloneexplainindividualandcollectiveresponsestotheclimatechallenge(Whitmarsh,2009;Sarewitz,2011;WolfandMoser,2011;Berkhout,2012).Thereisevidenceofcognitivedissonanceandstrategicbehaviourinbothmitigationandadaptation.Denialmechanismsthatoverratethecostsofchanginglifestyles,blameothers,andthatcastdoubtontheeffectivenessofindividualactionorthesoundnessofscientificknowledgearewelldocumented(StollKleemannetal.,2001;Norgaard,2011;McCrightandDunlap,2011),asistheconcertedeffortbyopponentsofclimateactiontoseedandamplifythosedoubts(Jacquesetal.,2008;Kolmes,2011;ConwayandOreskes,2011).

Amongthedifferentdefinitionsofsocialcapital,oneofthemostinfluentialwasproposedbyFukuyama(2002):thesharednormsorvaluesthatpromotesocialcooperation,whicharefounded


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inturnonactualsocialrelationships,includingtrustandreciprocity.Socialcapitalappearsintheformoffamilybonds,friendshipandcollectivenetworks,associations,andothermoreorlessinstitutionalizedformsofcollectiveaction.Socialcapitalisthusgenerallyperceivedasanassetforboththeindividualsthatrecognizeandparticipateinsuchnormsandnetworksandfortherespectivegroup/society,insofarastheyderivebenefitsfrominformation,participatingindecision

makingandbelongingtothegroup.Socialcapitalcanbelinkedtosuccessfuloutcomesineducation,employment,familyrelationships,andhealth(GamarnikowandGreen,1999),aswellastoeconomicdevelopmentandparticipatory,democraticgovernance(Woolcock,1998;Fukuyama,2002;DohandMcNeely,2012).Indeed,socialcapitalcanalsobesustainedonunfairsocialnormsandinstitutionsthatperpetuateaninequitableaccesstothebenefitsprovidedbysocialorganization(WoolcockandNarayan,2000),throughsocialnetworksofcorruptionorcriminalorganizations,forexample,thatperpetuatetheunevendistributionofpublicresources,andunderminesocietiescohesionandphysicalsecurity.

ScholarshipsuggeststhatsocialcapitalissupportiveforSD(Rudd,2000;BridgerandLuloff,2001;Tsai,2008;Ostrom,2008;Jonesetal.,2011),havingshownthatitcanbeinstrumentaltoaddress

collective

action

problems

(Ostrom,

1998;

Rothstein,

2005),

combat

injustices

and

conditions

of

povertyandvulnerability(WoolcockandNarayan,2000),andbenefitfromresources(Bebbington,1999;Diazetal.,2002),andtofostermitigationandadaptation(Adger,2003;Wolfetal.,2010).

4.3.6 TechnologyTechnologyhasbeenacentralelementofhuman,social,andeconomicdevelopmentsinceancienttimes(Jonas,1985;Mokyr,1992).ItcanbeameanstoachievingequitableSD,byenablingeconomicandsocialdevelopmentwhileusingenvironmentalresourcesmoreefficiently.Thedevelopmentanddeploymentoftheoverwhelmingmajorityoftechnologiesismediatedbymarkets,respondingtoeffectivedemandofpurchasers(Baumol,2002),andcarriedoutbyprivatefirms,wheretheprerequisitesoftechnologicalcapacityandinvestmentresourcestendtobefound.However,thisprocessdoesnotnecessarilyaddressthebasicneedsofthosemembersofsocietywithinsufficient

marketdemandtoinfluencethedecisionsofinnovatorsandinvestors,nordoesitprovideanincentivetoreduceexternalizedcosts,suchasthecostsofGHGpollution(Jaffeetal.,2005).

FundamentalobjectivesofequityandSDarestillunmet.Forexample,thebasicenergyandnutritionalneedsoflargepartsoftheworldspopulationremainunfulfilled.Anestimated1.3billionpeoplelackedaccesstoelectricityin2011andabout3billionpeopleworldwidereliedonhighlypollutingandunhealthytraditionalsolidfuelsforhouseholdcookingandheating(Pachaurietal.;IEA,2012b)(seeSection14.3.2.1).Similarly,theFoodandAgriculturalOrganization(FAO)indicatesthatalmost870millionpeople(mostlyindevelopingcountries)werechronicallyundernourishedin201012(FAO,2012).AchievingtheobjectivesofequitableSDdemandsthefulfilmentofsuchbasicandotherdevelopmentalneeds.Thechallengeisthereforetodesign,implement,andprovide

supportfortechnologyinnovationanddiffusionprocessesthatrespondtosocialandenvironmentalgoals,whichatpresentdonotreceiveadequateincentivesthroughconventionalmarkets.

Scholarsoftechnologicalchangehave,inrecentyears,beguntohighlightthesystemicnatureofinnovationprocessesaswellasthefundamentalimportanceofsociala

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