Investment Research General Market Conditions Weekly ...... Investment Research — General Market Conditions Market movers ahead · ! " # $ % & ' * +,-. / 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9:;

� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �www.danskeresearch.com

Investment Research — General Market Conditions

Market movers ahead

· � � � � � � � � � � � ! " # $ % & ' ( ) ) ' * * + , - � . / � 0 1 � 2 2 / � 3 4 � 2 5 6 7 8 9 : : ; � < / � 9 � / 1 � 5 = : / 2 � : 7 >6 2 6 ? � 8 8 � � @ 2 6 0 / � � ' $ � & A ) * " - , - , * B � % ! " � � � % � + * C ) � & * - , A � D ' , * � � & * � ! A �- * $ & ) � E - F ( G· � � � � � � H > � � � 2 / I + ! ! * " C + � & & A - - * * ) - D * ( J * D A � ) � � K � � " L � B , * � � � � M / 4 2 � / ? N / 1 5 29 2 5 4 � � / 5 9 2 = 4 2 2 6 � 5 O / � � / � 6 < � � 5 < � � � 2 � / � � � P Q � R 9 � : � 0 9 2 : 6 � 9 / � S· T � R � 8 � � @ 9 2 6 : 2 / U 6 = @ � 5 8 9 � � 9 � � � 1 � 2 � 9 � 0 5 6 � 6 1 � : � 6 2 � 2 V 9 � � � � � � > W . P = / 1 � 9 � ? : 6 � 9 / �? / 1 X 6 � 4 6 1 7 > 8 � 9 = � 9 2 5 4 � / � Y � 5 � � 2 5 6 7 > = / 4 : 5 ; � 9 < U / 1 � 6 � � ? / 1 � 9 < 9 � 0 � � � � � R � Z [ \ .1 6 � � � 9 @ � 6 � 5 9 � � � � ] ^ _ ` a _ ] a 8 � � R U � = � M � . W 9 � ? : 6 � 9 / � � / 1 9 2 � ? 4 1 � � � 1 9 � Z � ; 1 4 6 1 7 S· � � � b a c d e c a f e a > 8 � 6 : 2 / � 6 O � 6 O � 1 7 ; 4 2 7 8 � � @ 9 � � � 1 < 2 / ? 5 6 � 6 1 � : � 6 2 � 2 S \ / 2 �� / � � 8 / 1 � � 7 6 1 � g 8 � 5 9 2 � h i j k W 5 6 � 6 6 � 5 T / 1 8 6 7 ( ) T l m 4 � � � � � = 4 1 1 � � = 7 1 � 2 � 1 O � 2 ? 9 0 4 1 � 2 ? 1 / < k 6 � < 6 1 @ 2 T 6 � 9 / � 6 : ; 6 � @ n k T o 8 9 : : 2 � / 88 � � � � � 1 k T 2 / : 5 k p p 9 � Z q 9 � � � 1 O � � � 9 / � � / ? � � 5 / ? ? � � � 4 U 8 6 1 5 U 1 � 2 2 4 1 � / � k p p 9 �Z � ; 1 4 6 1 7 SGlobal macro and market themes

· M / : 5 9 � 0 6 � P Q r � 4 1 / 1 � ? � 1 � � 5 4 < 8 / 4 : 5 ; � 5 9 ? ? 9 = 4 : � ? / 1 \ 6 1 9 � � N � W � � 8 9 � � / 4 � 2 � 1 / � 0U 6 1 : 9 6 < � � � 6 1 7 ; 6 = @ 9 � 0 S· P Q s U � 1 9 U � � 1 7 2 U 1 � 6 5 8 9 5 � � 9 � 0 9 ? N � U � � 8 9 � 2 ; 4 � P . t 2 � � � / 2 � 6 � 5 1 � 6 5 7 � / � 6 2 �? 9 � 6 � = 9 6 : 2 U 9 : : / O � 1 S· � � Z q < 6 1 @ � � 2 > 8 � 8 / 4 : 5 � R U � = � � � � P Q s � / 8 � 6 @ � � O � 1 2 4 2 / � � � 1 < 6 u / 1 = 4 1 1 � � = 9 � 2 6 � 5P Q s r Q g k � / 2 � � � : � v I w ? 9 0 4 1 � 2 : / 8 � 1 S· T / 1 5 9 = Z q 6 � 5 Z � < 6 1 @ � � 2 6 1 � 2 � � � / 2 � � 2 6 ? � I � 6 O � � 9 � ? : / 8 2 9 � � � � = 6 2 � / ? 6 N � W � � 8 9 � SFocus

· x y z y { | } ~ � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � { � � � � � � � � � { � � � � � � � � � � � y � n v w Z � ; 1 4 6 1 7 oPoll still shows Le Pen losing second

round run-off (19-22 Feb)

The French are not too euro sceptic

Source: Ifop Fiducial, Danske Bank Markets Source: European Commission Eurobarometer,

Danske Bank Markets

57 43

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2nd round: Fillon vs Le Pen

Fillon Le Pen

60 40

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2nd round: Macron vs Le pen

Macron Le Pen

19.0% 19.0% 26.5% 14.0% 11.0% 11%

1st round

Macron Fillon Le Pen Hamon Melenchon Other

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

France: % for and against the Euro

For euro Against euro

Contents

Market movers ....................................................... 2

Global Macro and Market Themes ........... 6

Scandi Update ......................................................... 8

Latest research from Danske Bank

Markets ........................................................................ 9

Macroeconomic forecast ............................ 10

Financial forecast .............................................. 11

Calendar .................................................................. 12

24 February 2017

Editor

Senior Analyst

Morten Helt

+45 45 12 85 18

[email protected]

Weekly Focus Will we finally get some details on Trump’s tax policy?

Financial views

Source: Danske Bank

Follow us on Twitter

@Danske_Research

Major indices

24-Feb 3M 12M

10yr EUR swap 0.70 0.80 1.30

EUR/USD 106 105 112

ICE Brent oil 56 53 61

24-Feb 6M 12-24M

S&P500 2364 5 -10% 10-15%

2 | 24 February 2017 www.danskeresearch.com

Weekly Focus

Market movers

Global

· � � � � � � � > k / � 6 : 5 3 1 4 < U 9 2 2 � � � / 0 9 O � 6 2 U � � = � 6 � 6 u / 9 � � 2 � 2 2 9 / � 9 � . / � 0 1 � 2 2 S l ? � 8B * * � ) D � � � � � ! " # $ % & ' ' $ � & A ) * " - , - , * B � % ! " � � � % � + * C ) � & * - , A � D ' , * � � & * � !A � - * $ & ) � E - F ( � " B * J * ! A * � * - , - , * 9 2 : 9 @ � : 7 � / 4 2 � � � 9 2 / U U / 1 � 4 � 9 � 7 � / 1 � O � 6 : 2 / < �/ ? � 9 2 � � / 4 0 � � 2 / � � � � � / U 9 = SW . P = / 1 � 9 � ? : 6 � 9 / � ? / 1 X 6 � 4 6 1 7 9 2 5 4 � � / ; � 1 � : � 6 2 � 5 / � Y � 5 � � 2 5 6 7 S W . P 9 � ? : 6 � 9 / � � 6 2; � � � � 4 9 � � ? : 6 � 6 � 6 1 / 4 � 5 � S � � 2 9 � = � l 4 0 4 2 � 8 9 � � � / = : � 6 1 � 1 � � 5 S Y � � 2 � 9 < 6 � � W . P = / 1 �8 6 2 � S v � � < r < 6 � 5 � S � � 7 r 7 9 � X 6 � 4 6 1 7 S M / 8 � O � 1 > 0 9 O � � � � 6 � . W � ? / 1 X 6 � 4 6 1 7 = 6 < �/ 4 � � 9 0 � � 1 � � 6 � � R U � = � � 5 > � � � 1 � < 6 7 ; � 4 U 2 9 5 � 1 9 2 @ � / � � � 2 � � 2 � 9 < 6 � � 2 Sj 9 O � � � � 6 � 8 � � 6 O � 2 � � � 9 � 5 9 = 6 � 9 / � 2 / ? 9 � = 1 � 6 2 � 5 9 � O � 2 � < � � � 2 6 � 5 O � 1 7 � 9 0 � = / � 2 4 < � 1= / � ? 9 5 � � = � > � � � 1 � = / 4 : 5 ; � 2 9 0 � 2 / ? ? 4 1 � � � 1 � 9 0 � � � � 9 � 0 9 � � � � : 6 ; / 4 1 < 6 1 @ � � S 3 � 9 2 8 / 4 : 5U 4 � 4 U 8 6 1 5 U 1 � 2 2 4 1 � / � 8 6 0 � 2 6 � 5 � � � = � W . P 9 � ? : 6 � 9 / � > 8 � 9 = � 8 / 4 : 5 ; 1 9 � 0 4 2 O � 1 7+ ! � ) * - � - , * � * " ( ) � � - $ D * - G � A D , * $ + � $ * A � E ! - A � � A ) - $ A D D * $ E � $ E % - % $ * � * " , A � * ) G � ): / � 0 6 2 = / 1 � 9 � ? : 6 � 9 / � 1 � < 6 9 � 2 ? : 6 � > � � � Z � 5 = 6 � 6 ? ? / 1 5 � / 2 � 6 7 U 6 � 9 � � � ? / 1 6 : 9 � � : � 8 � 9 : �: / � 0 � 1 S[ � \ / � 5 6 7 > = 6 U 9 � 6 : 0 / / 5 2 / 1 5 � 1 2 5 6 � 6 ? / 1 X 6 � 4 6 1 7 9 2 5 4 � / 4 � S 3 � � 2 � ? 9 0 4 1 � 2 8 9 : : 0 9 O �4 2 6 ? 9 1 2 � 9 � g \ < 6 � 4 ? 6 = � 4 1 9 � 0 ? / 1 Z � ; 1 4 6 1 7 9 2 5 4 � / 4 � S3 � � U 1 � : 9 < 9 � 6 1 7 < 6 � 4 ? 6 = � 4 1 9 � 0 W \ � 2 � / 8 � 5 6 2 < 6 : : 5 � = : 9 � � 6 � 5 � � � 2 6 < � < 6 7 ; � � 1 4 �? / 1 � g \ 0 9 O � � � � 6 � � g \ � 6 2 1 � = � � � : 7 ; � � � 6 ; 9 � � 9 0 � � 1 � � 6 � W \ � S M / 8 � O � 1 > 1 � 0 9 / � 6 :W \ � 2 � 6 O � ; � � � � 4 9 � � 2 � 1 / � 0 S Y � 5 � � 2 5 6 7 6 : 2 / ; 1 9 � 0 2 1 � 6 : U � 1 2 / � 6 : 2 U � � 5 9 � 0 ? 9 0 4 1 � 2 ? / 1X 6 � 4 6 1 7 S 3 � � O � 1 7 � 9 0 � : � O � : / ? = / � 2 4 < � 1 = / � ? 9 5 � � = � 6 � 5 2 � 1 / � 0 1 � � 6 9 : 2 6 : � 2 ? 9 0 4 1 � 22 � � < 9 � 5 9 = 6 � 9 O � / ? 6 � 6 9 : 8 9 � 5 ? / 1 = / � 2 4 < � 1 2 U � � 5 9 � 0 S Z 9 � 6 : : 7 > 3 4 � 2 5 6 7 ; 1 9 � 0 2. / � ? � 1 � � = � ; / 6 1 5 = / � 2 4 < � 1 = / � ? 9 5 � � = � ? / 1 Z � ; 1 4 6 1 7 S 3 � � Q � 9 O � 1 2 9 � 7 / ? \ 9 = � 9 0 6 �= / � 2 4 < � 1 = / � ? 9 5 � � = � ? � : : 6 ; 9 � 9 � Z � ; 1 4 6 1 7 > ; 4 � � � 9 2 u 4 2 � = : / 2 � 5 � � � 2 < 6 : : 0 6 U ; � � 8 � � �� 8 / � 4 < ; � 1 2 S M � � = � > 8 � 6 1 � : / / @ 9 � 0 ? / 1 6 < / 1 � / 1 : � 2 2 4 � = � 6 � 0 � 5 . / � ? � 1 � � = � ; / 6 1 59 � 5 � R 9 � Z � ; 1 4 6 1 7 Sg � O � 1 6 : 2 U � � = � � 2 6 1 � 5 4 � � / ; � 0 9 O � � ; 7 < � < ; � 1 2 / ? � � � Z [ \ . > 9 � = : 4 5 9 � 0 6 2 U � � = � ; 7= � 6 9 1 X 6 � � � � � : : � � A � , A + D � � � � $ A " L G ¡ ) * " � � - , * � ¢ K & A � % - * ) � � � ! L C E * B (Z [ \ . < � < ; � 1 2 2 � � < 1 � 6 5 7 � / � 9 @ � 9 � \ 6 1 = � S g � � 6 : 2 / / 4 1 � 6 @ � / � � � � < 9 � 4 � � 2 ~ y � y SY � 2 � 9 : : � R U � = � � � � Z � 5 � / � 9 @ � � 8 9 = � � � 9 2 7 � 6 1 n 9 � X 4 � � 6 � 5 k � = � < ; � 1 o 6 : � � / 4 0 � � � �U 1 / ; 6 ; 9 : 9 � 7 / ? 6 � � 9 1 5 � 9 @ � � 6 2 9 � = 1 � 6 2 � 5 S � ? � = / � / < 9 = 5 6 � 6 2 � 6 7 2 2 � 1 / � 0 6 � 5 8 � 0 � � < / 1 �9 � ? / 1 < 6 � 9 / � 6 ; / 4 � 3 1 4 8 � = / 4 : 5 2 � � 6 � � 6 1 : 7 � 9 @ � 9 � \ 6 7 S· � � � � � ] ^ _ ` a _ ] a > 8 � ? 6 = � 6 8 � � @ 8 9 � � < 6 � 7 9 � � � 1 � 2 � 9 � 0 5 6 � 6 1 � : � 6 2 � 2 S \ / � 5 6 7 @ 9 = @ 2/ ? ? 8 9 � � \ w < / � � 7 2 4 U U : 7 0 1 / 8 � � 6 � 5 U 1 9 O 6 � � 2 � = � / 1 : / 6 � 0 1 / 8 � � ? / 1 X 6 � 4 6 1 7 S N / 6 � 2 � /� / 4 2 � � / : 5 2 9 � = 1 � 6 2 � 5 v S � � 9 � k � = � < ; � 1 > 4 U ? 1 / < � S £ � 9 � T / O � < ; � 1 8 � 9 : � : / 6 � 2 � /� / � I ? 9 � 6 � = 9 6 : = / 1 U / 1 6 � 9 / � 2 8 � 1 � 4 U v S w � 9 � k � = � < ; � 1 ? 1 / < v S � � 9 � T / O � < ; � 1 S Y �� R U � = � : / 6 � 0 1 / 8 � � � / � � � U 1 9 O 6 � � 2 � = � / 1 9 � X 6 � 4 6 1 7 � / 1 � < 6 9 � 6 1 / 4 � 5 � � � k � = � < ; � 1: � O � : 2 S[ � 3 4 � 2 5 6 7 > � � � M � . W 9 � ? : 6 � 9 / � ? 9 0 4 1 � 2 ? / 1 Z � ; 1 4 6 1 7 6 1 � 1 � : � 6 2 � 5 S M � 6 5 : 9 � � 9 � ? : 6 � 9 / �� 6 2 U 9 = @ � 5 4 U 2 9 0 � 9 ? 9 = 6 � � : 7 ; � � 8 � � � T / O � < ; � 1 � � 6 � 5 X 6 � 4 6 1 7 � � 8 � � 1 � 9 � � 6 2 1 9 2 � �? 1 / < � S � � � / � S ¤ � 7 r 7 S Y � ; � : 9 � O � � � 6 5 : 9 � � 9 � ? : 6 � 9 / � 8 9 : : 1 9 2 � < 6 1 0 9 � 6 : : 7 6 � 5 U � 6 @ 6 �� S £ � 9 � Z � ; 1 4 6 1 7 > ; � ? / 1 � 9 � 8 9 : : 2 � 6 1 � 5 � = : 9 � 9 � 0 S M 9 0 � � � � 1 0 7 U 1 9 = � 9 � ? : 6 � 9 / � � 6 2 ; � � �� 5 1 9 O � 1 ; � � 9 � 5 � � � 2 � � � U 9 � = 1 � 6 2 � 9 � � � 6 5 : 9 � � 9 � ? : 6 � 9 / � 9 � 1 � = � � � < / � � � 2 > ; 4 � � � 9 2 � ? ? � = �2 � / 4 : 5 2 : / 8 : 7 8 � 6 1 / ? ? 6 ? � � 1 Z � ; 1 4 6 1 7 > = 6 4 2 9 � 0 � � 6 5 : 9 � � 9 � ? : 6 � 9 / � � / 5 � = : 9 � � S . / 1 �

PCE core inflation remains below the 2% target

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

Headline inflation set to peak in February

Source: Eurostat, Danske Bank Markets


Weekly Focus 9 � ? : 6 � 9 / � $ * & A � * " - ¥ G ¦ � A � § � % $ L � " B * " � � � - * F ' * + - � L + , � D * A � � * J $ % $ L ( )? 9 0 4 1 � S l 2 : / � 0 6 2 8 6 0 � U 1 � 2 2 4 1 � 1 � < 6 9 � 2 2 4 ; 5 4 � 5 > 8 � � R U � = � = / 1 � 9 � ? : 6 � 9 / � � / 2 � 6 7 : / 86 � 5 � / � 0 / 2 9 0 � 9 ? 9 = 6 � � : 7 6 ; / O � � � � � S � � : � O � : � � 9 2 7 � 6 1 S 3 � � j � 1 < 6 � 9 � ? : 6 � 9 / � ? 9 0 4 1 � 26 1 � 5 4 � � / ; � 1 � : � 6 2 � 5 / � Y � 5 � � 2 5 6 7 S3 � � � 4 1 / 6 1 � 6 4 � � < U : / 7 < � � � 1 6 � � 9 � X 6 � 4 6 1 7 9 2 5 4 � � / ; � 1 � : � 6 2 � 5 / � 3 � 4 1 2 5 6 7 S 3 � �4 � � < U : / 7 < � � � 1 6 � � � 6 2 5 � = 1 � 6 2 � 5 2 � � 6 5 9 : 7 2 9 � = � v � � w � / � � � k � = � < ; � 1 v � � � : � O � : / ?£ S � � S Y � ; � : 9 � O � 9 � ? � : : ? 4 1 � � � 1 � / £ S � � 9 � X 6 � 4 6 1 7 S 3 � � W \ � 2 6 � 5 � 2 U � = 9 6 : : 7 � � �� 8 � 9 = � 2 4 0 0 � 2 � 2 : / 8 � 1 4 � � � 4 1 / 6 1 � 6 1 � � 6 9 : 2 6 : � 2 ? 9 0 4 1 � 2 ? / 1 X 6 � 4 6 1 7 6 1 � 5 4 � / 4 � S l ? � � 1 < / � � � : 7 5 � = : 9 � � 29 � ; / � � T / O � < ; � 1 6 � 5 k � = � < ; � 1 v � � � > 8 � � 2 � 9 < 6 � � 6 � 9 � = 1 � 6 2 � 9 � X 6 � 4 6 1 7 S Y � � R U � = �1 � � 6 9 : 2 6 : � 2 � / 2 � / 8 6 < / � � � : 7 9 � = 1 � 6 2 � / ? � S � � 9 � X 6 � 4 6 1 7 S 3 � 9 2 9 2 2 4 U U / 1 � � 5 ; 7 � 9 0 �= / � 2 4 < � 1 = / � ? 9 5 � � = � > 8 � 9 = � 1 / 2 � ? 4 1 � � � 1 9 � X 6 � 4 6 1 7 6 � 5 � � � � 2 � 9 < 6 � � 5 5 � = : 9 � � 9 �4 � � < U : / 7 < � � � 9 � X 6 � 4 6 1 7 S 3 � � j � 1 < 6 � 1 � � 6 9 : 2 6 : � 2 1 � : � 6 2 � 5 / � Z 1 9 5 6 7 = / 4 : 5 0 9 O � 6 � 9 � �6 2 � / � / 8 2 � 1 / � 0 � 4 1 / 1 � � 6 9 : 2 6 : � 2 6 1 � : 9 @ � : 7 � / � 6 O � ; � � � S· � � � � � � H > ? / = 4 2 = / � � 9 � 4 � 2 � / ; � / � � � � U 6 2 2 9 � 0 / ? � � � P Q � R 9 � : � 0 9 2 : 6 � 9 / � > � � 6 ; : 9 � 0 � � �Q p 0 / O � 1 � < � � � � / � 1 9 0 0 � 1 l 1 � 9 = : � � � S 3 � � ; 9 : : 9 2 = 4 1 1 � � � : 7 9 � � � � M / 4 2 � / ? N / 1 5 2 6 � 5� � � 2 / I = 6 : : � 5 = / < < 9 � � � � 2 � 6 0 � ; � 0 9 � 2 / � \ / � 5 6 7 > 8 � � 1 � � � � N / 1 5 2 8 9 : : 5 9 2 = 4 2 2 6 � 5 O / � �/ � 6 < � � 5 < � � � 2 S � � 1 � < 6 9 � 2 / 4 1 ; 6 2 � = 6 2 � � � 6 � � � � N / 1 5 2 8 9 : : � / � 5 � : 6 7 � � � ; 9 : : 6 � 5 � � �Q p 1 � < 6 9 � 2 / � � 1 6 = @ � / � 1 9 0 0 � 1 l 1 � 9 = : � � � ; 7 � � � � � 5 / ? \ 6 1 = � > U � 1 � 6 U 2 6 � � � � P Q2 4 < < 9 � 9 � \ 6 : � 6 / � £ I � � \ 6 1 = � S � ? � � � N / 1 5 2 6 0 1 � � � � � 6 < � � 5 < � � � 2 > � � � ; 9 : : 8 9 : : 0 /; 6 = @ � / � � � M / 4 2 � / ? . / < < / � 2 ? / 1 6 U U 1 / O 6 : 6 � 5 � � � � ; 6 = @ 6 � 5 ? / 1 � � ; � � 8 � � � � � � � 8 /= � 6 < ; � 1 2 4 � � 9 : � � � 8 / 1 5 9 � 0 9 2 6 0 1 � � 5 4 U / � S� � � � 1 < 2 / ? � = / � / < 9 = 5 6 � 6 1 � : � 6 2 � 2 > 2 / < � 9 < U / 1 � 6 � � 2 / ? � 9 � 5 9 = 6 � / 1 2 6 1 � 5 4 � S \ / 2 �9 < U / 1 � 6 � � 6 1 � � � � W \ � 2 ? / 1 Z � ; 1 4 6 1 7 S W \ � < 6 � 4 ? 6 = � 4 1 9 � 0 n 5 4 � / 4 � / � Y � 5 � � 2 5 6 7 o4 2 4 6 : : 7 ? / : : / 8 2 � � � � � 4 9 O 6 : � � � 9 � 5 � R ? 1 / < � � � � 4 1 / 6 1 � 6 > 8 � 9 = � 8 6 2 � � S � 9 � Z � ; 1 4 6 1 7 >2 / 8 � � 2 � 9 < 6 � � 6 2 : 9 0 � � ? 6 : : ? 1 / < � � S £ 9 � X 6 � 4 6 1 7 S l 2 = / � ? 9 5 � � = � 6 � 5 ? 4 � 4 1 � ; 4 2 9 � � 2 2� R U � = � 6 � 9 / � 2 6 1 � 2 4 ; 5 4 � 5 9 � � � � 2 � 1 O 9 = � 2 � = � / 1 > 8 � � 2 � 9 < 6 � � � � 6 � W \ � 2 � 1 O 9 = � 2 n 5 4 � / �Z 1 9 5 6 7 o ? � : : � / � w S ¤ ? 1 / < � i S � > 2 4 0 0 � 2 � 9 � 0 � � 6 � 0 1 / 8 � � 2 : / 8 � 5 6 ; 9 � 6 � � � � ; � 0 9 � � 9 � 0 / ?v � � � S Y � 5 / � / � � 6 O � 6 � 7 2 � 1 / � 0 O 9 � 8 2 / � W \ � = / � 2 � 1 4 = � 9 / � / � 3 � 4 1 2 5 6 7 S [ � 3 4 � 2 5 6 7n � � V � � . P 3 o > j ? p = / � 2 4 < � 1 = / � ? 9 5 � � = � 5 6 � 6 ? / 1 Z � ; 1 4 6 1 7 9 2 5 4 � / 4 � 6 � 5 8 � 2 � �5 / 8 � 2 9 5 � 1 9 2 @ � / � � � = 4 1 1 � � � : � O � : / ? I � > 6 2 � R U � = � 6 � 9 / � 2 / ? � 9 0 � � 1 9 � ? : 6 � 9 / � 8 � 9 0 � / �� R U � = � � 5 1 � 6 : 8 6 0 � 0 1 / 8 � � S Y � � 2 � 9 < 6 � � 6 ? 6 : : � / I � S 3 � � N : / 7 5 2 t 4 2 9 � � 2 2 t 6 1 / < � � � 1? / 1 Z � ; 1 4 6 1 7 9 2 6 : 2 / 5 4 � / 4 � S· � � ¨ © e c a ª 8 � 6 1 � O � 1 7 < 4 = � : / / @ 9 � 0 ? / 1 8 6 1 5 � / � � � � � 8 1 / 4 � 5 / ? W \ � 5 6 � 6 ? / 1 Z � ; 1 4 6 1 75 4 � � / ; � 1 � : � 6 2 � 5 / � Y � 5 � � 2 5 6 7 S � � 8 9 : : 0 9 O � < / 1 � 9 � ? / / � 8 � � � � � 1 � � � . � 9 � � 2 �< 6 � 4 ? 6 = � 4 1 9 � 0 = 7 = : � 9 2 U � 6 @ 9 � 0 6 2 2 / < � 9 � 5 9 = 6 � / 1 2 � 6 O � 2 4 0 0 � 2 � � 5 1 � = � � � : 7 S Y � � R U � = �� = 7 = : � � / 2 : / 8 5 / 8 � 6 2 � � � � 8 / < 6 9 � 5 1 9 O � 1 2 ; � � 9 � 5 � � � 1 � = / O � 1 7 « � / 4 2 9 � 0 6 � 59 � ? 1 6 2 � 1 4 = � 4 1 � « 6 1 � � R U � = � � 5 � / 0 1 / 8 < / 1 � 2 : / 8 : 7 9 � v � � � ? / : : / 8 9 � 0 � 9 0 � � � � 9 � 0< � 6 2 4 1 � 2 S 3 � 9 2 8 9 : : : � 6 5 � / 6 0 1 6 5 4 6 : 8 � 6 @ � � 9 � 0 / ? 9 � O � 2 � < � � � 0 1 / 8 � � 6 2 2 9 0 � 6 : � 5 ; 79 � O � 2 � < � � � U : 6 � 2 S Y � � R U � = � W \ � < 6 � 4 ? 6 = � 4 1 9 � 0 ? 1 / < T t g � / 5 � = : 9 � � ? 1 / < � � S w � /� � S � 6 � 5 � � � . 6 9 R 9 � W \ � < 6 � 4 ? 6 = � 4 1 9 � 0 � / ? 6 : : ? 1 / < � � S � � / � � S � S

Unemployment rate to continue lower

Source: Eurostat, PMI, Danske Bank Markets

We expect PMI services to fall given low confidence

Source: Markit Economics, EU

We look for lower PMI manufacturing

in coming quarters

Source: Macrobond Financial


Weekly Focus

Scandi

· � � ¬ ] c a _ ® > � � � 8 � � @ @ 9 = @ 2 / ? ? 8 9 � � ; 4 2 9 � � 2 2 = / � ? 9 5 � � = � 5 6 � 6 / � \ / � 5 6 7 S\ 6 � 4 ? 6 = � 4 1 9 � 0 = / � ? 9 5 � � = � ? � : : 2 : 9 0 � � : 7 9 � X 6 � 4 6 1 7 6 ? � � 1 = : 9 < ; 9 � 0 2 � 1 / � 0 : 7 9 � k � = � < ; � 1 >2 / 9 � 8 9 : : ; � 9 � � � 1 � 2 � 9 � 0 � / 2 � � 8 � 9 = � 8 6 7 � � � 8 9 � 5 ; : / 8 2 9 � Z � ; 1 4 6 1 7 S 3 4 � 2 5 6 7 ; 1 9 � 0 2? / 1 � 9 0 � U / 1 � ? / : 9 / 9 � O � 2 � < � � � 2 6 � 5 2 � = 4 1 9 � 9 � 2 2 � 6 � 9 2 � 9 = 2 ? / 1 X 6 � 4 6 1 7 > 6 2 8 � : : 6 2 � � � ? 4 : :� 6 � 9 / � 6 : 6 = = / 4 � � 2 ? / 1 h i � � S 3 � � j k W 9 � 5 9 = 6 � / 1 U 4 ; : 9 2 � � 5 ; 7 g � 6 � 9 2 � 9 = 2 k � � < 6 1 @ 9 �< 9 5 I Z � ; 1 4 6 1 7 2 � / 8 � 5 � � 6 : � � 7 0 1 / 8 � � / ? � S i � � r � > 2 4 0 0 � 2 � 9 � 0 9 < U 1 / O � < � � � 2 9 � ; / � �U 1 9 O 6 � � = / � 2 4 < U � 9 / � 6 � 5 � R U / 1 � 2 S . 4 1 1 � � = 7 1 � 2 � 1 O � 2 5 6 � 6 ? / : : / 8 2 / � 3 � 4 1 2 5 6 7 SZ � ; 1 4 6 1 7 � 6 2 2 � � � k p p = : 9 < ; � / 9 � 2 � 9 0 � � 2 � : � O � : 2 6 0 6 9 � 2 � P Q s 2 9 � = � N 6 1 2 s / � 5 � ; � 0 6 �6 2 0 / O � 1 � / 1 / ? � � � T 6 � 9 / � 6 : ; 6 � @ 9 � v � � w > 2 / � � � < 6 1 @ � � 8 9 : : ; � @ � � U 9 � 0 6 U 6 1 � 9 = 4 : 6 1 : 7= : / 2 � � 7 � / � 8 � � � � � 1 � � 9 2 � 6 2 U 1 / < U � � 5 � � � = � � � 1 6 : ; 6 � @ � / 2 � : : k p p 6 � 5 2 / � R U 6 � 5 � � �= 4 1 1 � � = 7 1 � 2 � 1 O � 2 S Y � ; � : 9 � O � � � 6 � 9 � � � 1 O � � � 9 / � 1 � < 6 9 � 2 � � � T 6 � 9 / � 6 : ; 6 � @ ¯ 2 U 1 � ? � 1 1 � 59 � 2 � 1 4 < � � � ? / 1 = / 4 � � � 1 9 � 0 4 U 8 6 1 5 U 1 � 2 2 4 1 � / � k p p S Z 9 � 6 : : 7 > Z 1 9 5 6 7 ; 1 9 � 0 24 � � � � � 8 � � @ 6 � � 6 5 8 9 : : ; � 6 O � 1 9 � 6 ; : � 5 6 � 6 � R U : / 2 9 / � S Z 9 1 2 � 6 � 5 ? / 1 � < / 2 � 9 2 / ?= / 4 1 2 � � � � j k W 5 6 � 6 n 3 4 � 2 5 6 7 > � £ V w � . P 3 o S Y � � 2 � 9 < 6 � � 6 � / 4 � = / < � 6 1 / 4 � 5 6 � / 1 6 � 6 56 ; / O � v � 7 r 7 9 � = 6 : � � 5 6 1 I 6 5 u 4 2 � � 5 � � 1 < 2 n 9 9 � � � � 6 ; 2 � � = � / ? 1 � O 9 2 9 / � 2 > 2 : 9 0 � � : 76 ; / O � � S � � � r � > 2 � 6 2 / � 6 : : 7 6 � 5 8 / 1 @ 9 � 0 I 5 6 7 6 5 u 4 2 � � 5 o S l � � � � 2 6 < � � 9 < � > 8 � 6 1 � 6 : 2 /5 4 � � / 1 � = � 9 O � W W � 5 6 � 6 > � 1 6 5 � ; 6 : 6 � = � 2 � 6 � 9 2 � 9 = 2 6 � 5 1 � � 6 9 : 2 6 : � 2 � 4 < ; � 1 2 n 6 : : U � 1 � 6 9 � 9 � 0� / X 6 � 4 6 1 7 o S M / 8 � O � 1 > ; � ? / 1 � � � 6 � n \ / � 5 6 7 > � £ V w � o > 8 � 8 9 : : 2 � � � / 8 � / 4 2 � � / : 5 : � � 5 9 � 09 2 5 � O � : / U 9 � 0 S N 6 � � 1 9 � � � � 8 � � @ n Z 1 9 5 6 7 > � £ V w � . P 3 o g � 6 � 9 2 � 9 = 2 g 8 � 5 � � 9 2 6 : 2 / 5 4 � � /1 � : � 6 2 � 9 � 5 4 2 � 1 9 6 : 5 6 � 6 V / 1 5 � 1 2 > U 1 / 5 4 = � 9 / � 6 � 5 5 � : 9 O � 1 9 � 2 S· � � ± ` _ ° a ² > � � � 8 � � @ ¯ 2 ; 9 0 1 � : � 6 2 � 9 2 1 � 0 9 2 � � 1 � 5 4 � � < U : / 7 < � � � ? / 1 Z � ; 1 4 6 1 7 ? 1 / < � � �T / 1 8 � 0 9 6 � N 6 ; / 4 1 6 � 5 Y � : ? 6 1 � l 5 < 9 � 9 2 � 1 6 � 9 / � n T l m o S j 1 / 2 2 4 � � 6 � / � � � 1 = : � 6 19 � 5 9 = 6 � 9 / � � � 6 � 0 1 / 8 � � 9 � � � � T / 1 8 � 0 9 6 � � = / � / < 7 9 2 6 U U 1 / 6 = � 9 � 0 � � � � 1 � � 5 1 6 � � S 3 � �� 4 < ; � 1 / ? O 6 = 6 � = 9 � 2 U 4 ; : 9 2 � � 5 ; 7 � � � T l m � 6 2 6 : 2 / 9 � = 1 � 6 2 � 5 2 4 ; 2 � 6 � � 9 6 : : 7 / O � 1 � � �U 6 2 � 7 � 6 1 > 6 � 5 � � � � j k W 5 6 � 6 � 6 O � 2 � / 8 � � � 6 � 6 = � 4 6 :� 0 / 9 � 0 = / < U : � � � : 7 6 0 6 9 � 2 � 8 � 6 � � � � N Z g � 6 52 4 0 0 � 2 � � 5 S Y � � R U � = � � � 9 2 � 1 � � 5 � / = / � � 9 � 4 � 9 � v � � � 6 2 � � � 5 / 8 � 2 9 5 � 1 9 2 @ 9 � / 9 : I 1 � : 6 � � 59 � 5 4 2 � 1 9 � 2 � 6 2 � 2 S Y � � � � 1 � ? / 1 � � R U � = � 0 1 / 2 2 4 � � � 6 @ 9 � 0 � � � u / ; : � 2 2 1 6 � � 5 / 8 � < 6 1 0 9 � 6 : : 7 � / w S � � S 3 � � 8 � � @ 6 : 2 / ; 1 9 � 0 21 � � 6 9 : 2 6 : � 2 ? 9 0 4 1 � 2 ? / 1 X 6 � 4 6 1 7 > � / � : 7 6 8 6 9 � � 5 6 ? � � 1 � � � 2 4 1 U 1 9 2 � v S � � 2 : 9 5 � 9 � k � = � < ; � 1 SY � 1 � = @ / � � � 9 2 8 6 2 5 4 � < 6 9 � : 7 � / < / 1 � . � 1 9 2 � < 6 2 � 1 6 5 9 � 0 ; � 9 � 0 ; 1 / 4 0 � � ? / 1 8 6 1 5 � / � � �t : 6 = @ Z 1 9 5 6 7 8 � � @ 9 � T / O � < ; � 1 > 2 / < � � � 9 � 0 8 � 9 = � 9 2 � / � = 6 U � 4 1 � 5 ; 7 2 � 6 2 / � 6 :6 5 u 4 2 � < � � � S Y � � � � 1 � ? / 1 � � R U � = � 1 � � 6 9 : 2 6 : � 2 � / = : 9 < ; � S £ � < r < 9 � X 6 � 4 6 1 7 > 6 : � � / 4 0 �� 2 4 1 U 1 9 2 9 � 0 : 7 8 � 6 @ 9 � ? : 6 � 9 / � ? 9 0 4 1 � 2 < 6 7 � 6 O � ; � � � 5 4 � � / : / 8 � 1 2 6 : � 2 > � � � = � 6 = � 1 � 6 9 �5 / 8 � 2 9 5 � 1 9 2 @ � / / 4 1 U 1 � 5 9 = � 9 / � S [ O � 1 � � � 1 � 2 � / ? � � � 7 � 6 1 > 8 � � R U � = � 1 � � 6 9 : 2 6 : � 2 � / U 9 = @4 U 0 1 6 5 4 6 : : 7 6 2 9 � ? : 6 � 9 / � = / < � 2 5 / 8 � 6 � 5 U 4 1 = � 6 2 9 � 0 U / 8 � 1 9 � = 1 � 6 2 � 2 S l : 2 / = / < 9 � 0 4 U5 4 1 9 � 0 � � � 8 � � @ 9 2 � � � W \ � ? / 1 Z � ; 1 4 6 1 7 > 8 � 9 = � 8 � � R U � = � � / = / � ? 9 1 < � � � � � � 5 � � = 7 ? / 10 1 6 5 4 6 : 9 < U 1 / O � < � � � 9 � < 6 � 4 ? 6 = � 4 1 9 � 0 S

Business confidence on the up

Source: Statistics Denmark

Swedish economy is normalising

Source: SCB, NIER, Macrobond Financial, Danske

Bank calculations

Unemployment falling

Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank


Weekly Focus

Market movers ahead

Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets

Global movers Event Period Danske Consensus Previous

Mon 27-Feb - GBP House of Lords debate Article 50 bill (until Wednesday)

14:30 USD Core capital goods orders, preliminary % Jan 0.6% 0.7%

Tue 28-Feb - USD Donald Trump speaks to joint session of Congress

11:00 EUR HICP - core inflation, preliminary y/y Feb 0.9% 0.9% 0.9%

Wed 01-Mar 2:00 CNY PMI manufacturing Index Feb 51.2 51.3

10:30 GBP PMI manufacturing Index Feb 55.5 55.6 55.9

14:30 USD PCE core m/m|y/y Jan 0.25%|1.7% 0.3%|1.8% 0.1%|1.7%

16:00 USD ISM manufacturing Index Feb 56.0 56.0

Fri 03-Mar 10:30 GBP PMI services Index Feb 54.2 54.5

16:00 USD ISM non-manufacturing Index Feb 56.5 56.5

19:00 USD Fed Chair Yellen (dovish) speaks

Scandi movers

Mon 27-Feb 9:30 SEK Household lending y/y Jan 7.2%

Tue 28-Feb 9:00 DKK GDP, preliminary q/q|y/y 4th quarter 0.4% 0.4%|… 0.4%|...

9:30 SEK Retail sales s.a. m/m|y/y Jan 1.0%|1.4% 1.4%|2.3% -2.9%|0.6%

9:30 SEK GDP q/q|y/y 4th quarter 0.6%|2.0% 0.8%|2.3% 0.5%|2.8%

Wed 01-Mar 8:30 SEK PMI manufacturing Index Feb 62.0

9:00 NOK PMI manufacturing Index Feb 51.8 51.4

9:30 SEK Riksbank publishes minutes from Feb. Meeting

Thurs 02-Mar 16:00 DKK Currency reserves DKK bn Feb 458.0 457.8

Fri 03-Mar 10:00 NOK Unemployment % Feb 3.1% 3.2%


Weekly Focus

Global Macro and Market Themes

The great Le Pen scare – how could markets react afterwards?

Long and difficult road to Frexit even if Le Pen wins l : � � / 4 0 � 5 6 � 6 ? 1 / < � � � � 4 1 / 6 1 � 6 � � 9 2 8 � � @ U 6 9 � � � 5 6 � 4 U ; � 6 � U 9 = � 4 1 � > 8 9 � � 2 � 1 / � 0< 6 � 4 ? 6 = � 4 1 9 � 0 W \ � 2 6 � 5 j � 1 < 6 � 9 ? / 1 � 6 5 9 � 0 2 > ³ _ ] c b © ´ ` f ] _ c ] c µ ¶ ` c d · a c d µ © ] ¸ � ¹_ ] a e c ^ c d ] _ º _ ] · · ^ _ ] � ) A � � * ) - � $ ) ( $ * & A � E � + % ) * " � � - , * 4 U = / < 9 � 0 Z 1 � � = � U 1 � 2 9 5 � � � 9 6 :� : � = � 9 / � 6 � 5 � � � 1 9 2 @ / ? 6 \ 6 1 9 � � N � W � � 8 9 � S l = = / 1 5 9 � 0 � / 1 � = � � � U / : : 2 > 9 � 9 2 2 � 9 : : < / 2 � : 9 @ � : 7� � 6 � � 9 � � � 1 � � � 9 � 5 � U � � 5 � � � = 6 � 5 9 5 6 � � P < < 6 � 4 � : \ 6 = 1 / � / 1 � � � s � U 4 ; : 9 = 6 � Z 1 6 � » / 9 2 Z 9 : : / �8 9 : : ; � = / < � Z 1 6 � = � ¯ 2 � � R � U 1 � 2 9 5 � � � n 2 � � = � 6 1 � � / U 1 9 0 � � o S M / 8 � O � 1 > � � � 1 � 9 2 6 2 9 0 � 9 ? 9 = 6 � � 1 9 2 @� � � Z 1 / � � T 6 � 9 / � 6 : n Z T o = 6 � 5 9 5 6 � � \ 6 1 9 � � N � W � � > 8 � / � 6 2 � � 1 � 6 � � � � 5 � � 6 � Z 1 6 � = � 8 9 : : : � 6 O �� P Q 6 � 5 � � � � 4 1 / 9 ? 2 � � 9 2 � : � = � � 5 > 8 9 : : 8 9 � � � � U 1 � 2 9 5 � � � 9 6 : � : � = � 9 / � S T � O � 1 � � � : � 2 2 > � O � � 9 ?¼ * ½ * � A ) * ! * + - * " � - , * $ � " - � � + - % ! C � $ * F A - ( 9 2 : / � 0 n 2 � � x y z y { ¾ } ~ � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � { �� { � � � � � � � ¿ � � � y � � > v w Z � ; 1 4 6 1 7 o S Y � � � � � 1 N � W � � = 6 � / 1 8 9 : : 6 = � 4 6 : : 7 � / : 5 6 �P Q À * % $ � $ * E * $ * � " % & B A ! ! " * ' * � " ! $ D * ! L � � � Á ( ) ' * $ E � $ & � + * A � ' $ ! A & * � - $ L * ! * + - A � � ) A �X 4 � � 6 � 5 2 4 U U / 1 � ? 1 / < � � 1 = � / 2 � � U 1 9 < � < 9 � 9 2 � � 1 S � � / 4 1 O 9 � 8 > 9 � 9 2 2 � 9 : : � 4 � 2 � 9 / � 6 ; : � 8 � � � � � 1� � � U 4 ; : 9 = 8 / 4 : 5 O / � � 9 � ? 6 O / 4 1 / ? : � 6 O 9 � 0 � � � P Q r � 4 1 / 9 � 2 4 = � 6 1 � ? � 1 � � 5 4 < SWhat if? Risk-off and weaker euro if Le Pen is elected president Â c µ ] _ · ` Ã · © ` _ µ Ä Å Æ Ç È È É Ç Ê Æ Å Ç Æ É Ë Å Ì Í Î Ï Ð Í Ñ Ñ Í Ò Ì Î Ó É Ô Æ Õ Æ Î Ò Ì Î Ö Î Í Å É × Ø Ç Æ Ù Ì Å Ú Û Ò Ü Ì Ë Ü° ` ^ Ý d © a f ] Ã a _ ` _ ] · ] f ] _ ] a _ ® ] µ e º Ý e b a µ e ` c · Þ ª ° ] ] ß º ] b µ µ © ] ¸ ¨ à µ ` ^ · ] e µ · ] ß e · µ e c ´á ¸ Ã Ý ] ß e ¶ e Ý e µ ² µ ` · ^ º º ` _ µ b ` ^ c µ _ e ] · f ^ Ý c ] _ a ¶ Ý ] � / ? 9 � 6 � = 9 6 : 2 U 9 : : / O � 1 > � 2 U � = 9 6 : : 7 9 � � � �U � 1 9 U � � 1 7 > 8 � � 1 � 6 2 2 4 U U / 1 � ? / 1 Z 1 6 � = � = / 4 : 5 ; � : 9 < 9 � � 5 S Y � � R U � = � � / 2 � � 6 @ � � � I u � 1 @ < 6 1 @ � �1 � 6 = � 9 / � 8 9 � � 6 ¶ _ ` a d Ä ¶ a · ] d _ e · ® Ä ` Ã Ã ` f ] � 1 9 0 0 � 1 9 � 0 P Q s U � 1 9 U � � 1 7 2 U 1 � 6 5 8 9 5 � � 9 � 01 � : 6 � 9 O � � / Z 1 6 � = � > 6 t 4 � 5 1 6 : : 7 6 � 5 = 4 1 O � ? : 6 � � � � 9 � 0 > 6 : � � / 4 0 � � � � � R 6 = � 2 U 1 � 6 5 9 8 9 � � T j t r g j t r k j t l g Y 2 U 1 � 6 5 2 8 9 5 � � 9 � 0 SMarket implications if Le Pen wins presidency (base case in brackets)

Source: Danske Bank Markets

Central bank response FX FI Credit Equities

Euro

area

ECB uses QE flexibility to

support periphery

(No QE tapering in 2017; QE

continues also in 2018 with

unchanged size)

EUR/USD down 2-3

figures

(EUR/USD 3M: 1.05)

Periphery spreads to widen relative

to France; Bund rally and curve

flattening

(FGBs to rally significantly, more

modest rally in periphery)

DK

FX interventions by DN to

limit DKK strength, bar for

further rate cut is very high

(No further rate cuts)

Muted reation in

EUR/DKK spot and

forwards as DN to cap

EUR/DKK downside

around 7.4340

(EUR/DKK 3M: 7.4350)

DGBs and DMBs to perform vs semi-

core; DKK ASW spread to widen

(Spreads on DK FI relative to

Euroland to trade with stable range)

SE

Additonal support measures if

SEK strengthens significantly,

f.ex. future hikes postponed,

lowering rate path

(End to QE in July; no further

rate cuts)

EUR/SEK to move lower,

while USD/SEK should

rise

(EUR/SEK 3M: 9.40)

SGB ASW spreads to widen due to

safe-haven inflows

(Minor move in ASW levels; SGB

curve to steepen modestly)

NONo further rate cuts

(Monetary policy unchanged)

EUR/NOK to fall but

USD/NOK should bounce

(EUR/NOK 3M: 8.80)

NGB ASW spreads to widen;

flattening of bond and swap curves

(Stable NGB 5Y and 10Y yields;

stable ASW spreads in mid-

segment, higher long end)

Nordic companies

and covered bonds to

outperform eurozone

peers

(EUR credit spreads

to remain at the

current low level or

moderately

compress)

Bearish European

equities if FN also

wins majority in

parliament

(Bullish European

equities otherwise)

Key points

· Holding an EU/euro referendum

would be difficult for Le Pen without

strong parliamentary backing.

· EUR periphery spread widening if

Le pen wins but ECB to stand

ready to ease financial spillovers.

· Nordic FX and FI markets would see

safe-haven inflows if Le Pen wins.

Poll still shows Le Pen losing second

round run-off (19-22 February)

Source: Ifop Fiducial, Danske Bank Markets

The French are not too euro sceptic

Source: European Commission Eurobarometer,

Danske Bank Markets

57 43

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2nd round: Fillon vs Le Pen

Fillon Le Pen

60 40

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2nd round: Macron vs Le pen

Macron Le Pen

19.0% 19.0% 26.5% 14.0% 11.0% 11%

1st round

Macron Fillon Le Pen Hamon Melenchon Other

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

France: % for and against the Euro

For euro Against euro


Weekly Focus â ã ä å æ ç è é ê ë ì í î ê î ï ð ñ ò ê ó ô ê õ ë ë ö ê ÷ ø ù ë ï î ê ç é ê ã ú ê è ì ð ì ï ë ö ê è æ ç û ï è õ ð è è ê ã õ ü ê ìç ã ò ÷ ø ù ý ø þ ÿ ë ï ì ê ë ë ñ ê � � � � ü � ð è ê ì ñ ï î ê è � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �� ! � � " � � � � � � � �� # � � � � " � � � � � � � � � � � � � $ % � � � � � � � � � õ ç ð ë ü ï ð ì ñ & ' ð ñ ñ ü ì öï ã þ ÷ ( ç ã ò ) * ( ú ê è ì ð ì ÷ ø ù $ � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � + � � � � � � � � � � � � � �� , � - � � � + . - � � � � � � � � � / � � � � � � � � � � � ! � � � � � 0 � � � 1 � � � � � � � � � � � $, � � � � � � , � - � � � / � � � � � � � � � � � 0 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � / � � � � � � � � � ! � " � � � � " 2 � � � � � � � � � � / � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � / � � � � � � " � � � � � � � � � � 3 �� 4 � 0 � � � � � � � � 0 # � � � 5 � � � � � � � � # � � � � � � � � � � � � � � / / � � � � � � � � 0� � � � � 0 � � + � � � 0 � � � + � / � � � � " � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 1 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �� 0 $ 6 ö ê è ê ç õ ë ü ï ã ü ã ÷ ø ù ý ÿ ( ( ì ô ï ë ç ã ò � ï è î ç è ò æ ç è é ê ë ì í ï ã ë ö ê ï ë ö ê èö ç ã ò í ì ö ï ð ñ ò ' ê æ ï è ê æ ð ë ê ò 7 8 9 7 : ; 7 < = > 8 ? 7 @ A B : 7 C D 7 : = E B F C G F 8 H I J A : @ H < K H : @ A B : 8 @ B� � � � ! L M - - � � � � � � � � � � � N $ O P O Q � � � � � � / � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �� 0 � � / � $R � � � � # � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � " ) ï è ò ü õ õ ï æ ô ç ã ü ê ì ç ã ò õ ï ú ê è ê ò ' ï ã ò ì õ ï ð ñ ò ï ð ë ô ê è � ï è æ ë ö ê ü è ê ð è ï S ï ã êô ê ê è ì � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 0 � � � # � � � � � T � � � � � � � � T � � � � � � � � 0 � �� 0 � � � � � � $6 ö ê æ ê ò ü ð æ � ë ê è æ æ ï ú ê ü ã ê U ð ü ë & æ ç è é ê ë ì ï ã ç V ê W ê ã î ü ã î ï ð ñ ò ò ê ô ê ã ò ï ã î ö ê ë ö ê èä ) ü ì ç ' ñ ê ë ï ì ê õ ð è ê ç æ ç û ï è ü ë & ü ã ô ç è ñ ü ç æ ê ã ë ç è & ê ñ ê õ ë ü ï ã ì ü ã X ð ã ê � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � / � � � � / � � Y � � � � � � � � � � � � 0 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � / � � � � � � � 0 �� , � � � � $ . � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � T + � � � � � � � � � � � � Z � � � 0� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � " � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � Y � � � � � �� 0 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 0 � � � � # � � � � � � � � 0 � � � � � � � � � � � 0 $Global market views


Asset class Main factors

Equities[ \ ] ^ _ ] ` a b c d c e f g d d b e ^ c h i j k ] j ` l k c ] ^ km i j ] ^ _ ] ` a b c j ] \ ] n e o ] j k h ^ g ] c d p e \ ] ^ _ ] ` a b c ] k ] ^ a ` i a k h ^ g ] c d[ \ ] ^ _ ] ` a b c m q p r h o h i p s e ^ j ` f d h i j t l d d ` h u v h d c ] ^ i v l ^ e o ] w l i j ] ^ _ ] ` a b c v l ^ e o ] h i j x h c y k wi ] l c ^ h n e i z b ` i hBond market{ ] ^ k h i u | } ~ � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � ~ � � � � � � � � � � p b ` a b ] ^ e i h � � � b e ^ ` � e i� � } � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �m q � � � � � � � � � ~ � � � � ~ � � �� ~ � � � � � ~ � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � } � � ~ � � � � � � ~ } � � � � � � � ~ � } �� ~ � � � � � � � � ~ �FXv m t u � | � � � � � � � � � � � } � � � � � � � � � � � p c b ] i b ` a b ] ^ m q d ] c c e ^ ] k h ` i d l o o e ^ c ] j ¡ ¢ £ ^ l k o h i j c b ] ¤ ] j ` i c b ] i ] h ^ c ] ^ k ¥ v m t u m q c e b ] h j b ` a b ] ^ ¡ ] ¢ e i j ¦ � ¥v m t u § ¨ � � � � � � � � � � } � � � � � � � � � � � q b e ^ c � c ] ^ k ^ ` d g d g ] _ ] j e i c b ] l o d ` j ] e i © b h ^ j © ª ^ ] « ` c ^ ` d g d ¥ x e i a ] ^ c ] ^ k p _ ] ] « o ] f c v m t u { ª ¬ c e d ] c c n ] ` i c b ] � ¥ ¦ � � ¥ ^ h i a ] ¥m q u ® � ¯ � � � � � � � c ] ^ k ^ ` d g d d g ] _ ] j e i c b ] l o d ` j ] m q u r ¬ � d ] c c e ^ ] k h ` i d l o o e ^ c ] j i ] h ^ c ] ^ k ¡ ¢ ^ ] n h c ` \ ] k e i ] c h ^ ¢ o e n ` f ¢ h i j ^ ` d g h o o ] c ` c ] ¥v m t u | � ° � � ~ � � � � � ~ � � � � � p a ^ h j l h n n ¢ n e _ ] ^ k ] j ` l k c ] ^ k { ^ h j l h n n ¢ n e _ ] ^ e i ^ ] n h c ` \ ] ± l i j h k ] i c h n d h i j \ h n l h c ` e i ` i � � � ² ¡ l c i ] h ^ � c ] ^ k o e c ] i c ` h n n ` k ` c ] j ¥v m t u ³ ´ ° � � � ~ � � ~ � � � � � � � � z ^ e d d d ] c c e k e \ ] n e _ ] ^ e i \ h n l h c ` e i h i j a ^ e _ c b p ^ ] h n ^ h c ] j ` ± ± ] ^ ] i c ` h n d i e ^ k h n ` d ` i a ¥ £ ] f b i ` f h n o ` f c l ^ ] ` d i ] h ^ � c ] ^ k d l o o e ^ c ` \ ] ¥Commodities´ � � � � � } � � � ~ � � � � � � � � [ ¬ v z f l c d h n k e d c ± l n n ¢ ` k o n ] k ] i c ] j p m q f ^ l j ] d c e f g d h ^ ] d c ` n n a ^ e _ ` i aµ � � ~ � � � � } � � � � � � ~ � � � � � � � � � � ¶ � � � � © d d o ] ] f b p d n ` a b c l o d ` j ] o e c ] i c ` h n m i j ] ^ n ¢ ` i a d l o o e ^ c ± ^ e k f e i d e n ` j h c ` e i ` i k ` i ` i a ` i j l d c ^ ¢ p ^ ] f e \ ] ^ ¢ ` i a n e ¡ h n k h i l ± h f c l ^ ` i a h i j m q ± ` d f h n d o ] i j ` i a ¥§ � � � � � � } � � � � ~ � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � | � t ` d ` i a ¢ ` ] n j d h i j m q g ] ] o ` i a h n ` j e i c b ] a e n j o ^ ` f ] w d l o o e ^ c ± ^ e k o e n ` c ` f h n l i f ] ^ c h ` i c ¢ ¥· � � � } � � � � � ~ � � � � � � � � � ~ � ~ � � y c c ] i c ` e i b h d c l ^ i ] j c e ¸ ¹ º » ¼ ¹ _ ] h c b ] ^ ^ ` d g d e \ ] ^ c b ] _ ` i c ] ^ p f e i d e n ` j h c ` e i d ] ] i ` i d e k ] o h ^ c d e ± c b ] k h ^ g ] c ¥

¤ e ^ i e _ { ] ^ k h i ¢ ` ] n j d h ^ ] g ] o c n e _ ¡ ¢ o e n ` c ` f h n l i f ] ^ c h ` i c ¢ h i j h \ ] ^ ¢ c ` a b c ^ ] o e d ` c l h c ` e i ¥ x h c ] ^ ` i c b ] ¢ ] h ^ p c b ] o e n ` c ` f h n ^ ` d g o ` f c l ^ ]d b e l n j ` k o ^ e \ ] h i j p h d c b ] ] f e i e k ¢ ` d ` k o ^ e \ ` i a p c b ] v z ª c h o ] ^ ` i a j ` d f l d d ` e i d b e l n j ^ ] c l ^ i c e c b ] k h ^ g ] c ¥v z ª c e g ] ] o h c ` a b c n ] h d b h c c b ] d b e ^ c ] i j e ± c b ] f l ^ \ ] ¥ ½ ] i f ] p c b ] f l ^ \ ] � � � � � ` d d ] c c e d c ] ] o ] i ¥ ¾ ] d ] ] i e ^ h c ] b ` g ] ` i c b ] m q¡ ] ± e ^ ] r l i ] ¡ l c c b ] ^ ` d g ` d d g ] _ ] j c e _ h ^ j d c b ^ ] ] b ` g ] d c b ` d ¢ ] h ^ ¥v f e i e k ` f ^ ] f e \ ] ^ ¢ h i j ¿ v d b e l n j k ] h i ± l ^ c b ] ^ c ` a b c ] i ` i a ¡ l c o e n ` c ` f d À ¤ ^ ] i f b ¬ ^ ] d ` j ] i c ` h n ] n ] f c ` e i Á p ¡ h i g ` i a ^ ] f h o ` c h n ` d h c ` e i o n h i dh i j h o e c ] i c ` h n i ] _ k e \ ] b ` a b ] ^ ` i ] l ^ e � e i ] ¢ ` ] n j d ^ ] k h ` i f n ] h ^ ^ ` d g ± h f c e ^ d ¥ ¬ ] ^ ` o b ] ^ ¢ d o ^ ] h j d e ± c ] i _ ` j ] i _ b ] i f e ^ ] ¢ ` ] n j d k e \ ]b ` a b ] ^ ¥£ b ] ^ ] ± n h c ` e i c ^ h j ] _ ` c b f ¢ f n ` f h n d e l c o ] ^ ± e ^ k ` i a j ] ± ] i d ` \ ] d ` d d c ` n n ` i o n h ¢ h d c b ] l i j ] ^ n ¢ ` i a v ¬ q h i j { ¬ a ^ e _ c b c ^ ] i j dh ^ ] d c ` n n ` i c h f c ¥£ b ] \ ] ^ ¢ f e k k l i ` f h c ` \ ] i ] _ o ^ ] d ` j ] i c ` i c b ] m q ` d i e c h ¡ n ] c e e ± ± d ] c c b ` d ¥ Â i e l ^ \ ` ] _ p b ` d o e n ` f ¢ h a ] i j h ` d d c ` n n h ¡ e l c a ^ e _ c b ¥

Spread impact depending on ECB response


Markets


Weekly Focus

Scandi Update

Denmark – further strong employment growth Ã @ 7 @ A 8 @ A Ä 8 9 H : ; 7 < = > 8 ; B : @ Å C Æ H ; Ç C B Æ ; H : @ È A É F < H 8 8 Å B E H G @ Å 7 @ @ Å H : F ; D H < B È Ç H B Ç C H A :� � " � � � � � � � 0 P � Q Q Q � � � + � � � � � � M � � � � � � � � � 0 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �� / $ Ê � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � O N � Ë Q Q � � � � � � � � � � " � � Ì Q Í Ë � � � � � � � �� Z � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 0 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � $Ê � � " � � � � � � / � � T � � 0 � � / � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � / � 0 � � � � � / � � � � � � � � / � � � � � 4 � � � 0 $ M � � � � � � � � � � � � � � / � � � � 0 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � " � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 0 � � � � � � � � � � � � � 0� � � 3 O $Sweden – not much ado R � � � � � � � � ! � " � � � � " � � � � � � � � � � � � " � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 0 � �8 H Ä B : G @ A H < Î Ï Å H Ã E H G A 8 Å ? 7 @ A B : 7 C 9 H D @ Ð È È A Ä H > 8 Ñ Ã ? 9 Ð Ò : H E È B < H Ä 7 8 @ 8 A : Ä C F G H 7 ; A : F @ H� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � / Y � � � � � � � 2 � � � � � � 0 � � � � � � � � � � � � � 5 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � Z � � � � � � � � /� � � � � � � � / ! � " � � � � " 3 � � � � � � � Ó � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � / � � � � � � � � � 3 �� / � � � � � � � 4 � 2 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 5 $ Ê � � � � � � � � � � � � � �� / � � � " � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 0 � � � � � � + � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � ! � � � � 2 + � � ! 5 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � / � � � � � � � � � � � � � 0 � � �� , � � � � � � � � � , � � � 2 , Ô � 5 $Norway – oil investment revised up , � � � � � � � � � � � / � � � � � � � � � � Ì Q Í O � � � � � � A : G F 8 @ < Æ > 8 A : K H 8 @ ; H : @ H 8 @ A ; 7 @ H 8 Å 7 K H D H H : � � � � � � � � � � � � $ + � � � � � � / � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � / � � � � � � � / � � � � �� T � � 0 � � 0 � � � � � � � � � � Ì Q Í N � � � � � � � � � 0 Z � � � � + . - P � � � � �+ � � � � $ Ê � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � / � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � " � �� / $ T � # � � � � � , � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � / � � � � � � � " � � � � � � � � � �� , M O Í L � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � , M P Q L � � $ + � � � � � � � � � � 0 � � � � � � " � � � � � � � , M Ì N L � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � " � � � , M Õ Õ 1 Õ Ë L � � $Ê � � � � � " � B A C Ä B ; Ç 7 : A H 8 > A : K H 8 @ ; H : @ Ç < B Ö H Ä @ 8 ; B < H < B D F 8 @ 7 : G ; H � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � " � 0 $ � � � � � � � � � � � � � � " � � � � � � � � � � 0 � � � � Í Q × � � Ì Q Í N � � � � � � � �� $ Ê � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � " � � � � + � � / � � � � � � � � 0 � � / � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � " � � � � � � � � � / � � � � � � � � � / � � 0 � $

Employment continues to rise

Source: Statistics Denmark

A difficult to read indicator these days

Source: NIER, SCB, Macrobond Financial. Danske

Bank Markets calculations

Oil investment has bottomed out



Weekly Focus

Latest research from Danske Bank Markets Ø Ù Ú Ø Û Ü Ý Ü Þ ¾ ß à á â ã ä å ã æ ç è é ê á â é ë Þ ì ä ë í î ï í ë á Þ ð ñ ë í ð é ê æ á í ò Ü â ìÊ � T � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � / / � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � " � � � Ì Q Í N $ � � � �� " � 0 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � ó � � � � � � � ! � � � � � � � T � � � � � �T � � � � � � � � � � � � � T � � � ô � � # � � � � � � � $Ø Ø Ú Ø õ ö ÷ ø ÷ é Þ ï â Ü ì ù ö Þ è ú û á ä Ü ü û ì Ü Ü æ í Ü á ð ú â ë à é ò Ü é Þ ÷ á í ê àý � # � � � � � � � � � � � � / � � � � � � � � � � � T . ó Ô � � � � � $ Ê � T . ó Ô � � � �� " � � � � � � � 0 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � ô Ê � � � � � � � � � ô � � " � � � � � � � " � � � � � � � � $Ø Ø Ú Ø þ Ü ì Ü á í ê à ÿ Ü Þ æ á í ò ù ñ Ü ü ü á � Ü ì Ü â â è Ü æ Ü Þ â ç ë é Þ â ì â ë à é � à Ü í ç á ú í é ì Ü ìR � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � # � � � � 0 � � � � � / � � � � � � � � � � � � � / � � / � � � " � � �� / � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 0 � � $Ø Ø Ú Ø õ è á ì à ø ë æ æ Ü Þ â ù ø à é Þ Ü ì Ü à ë ï ì Ü ç í é ê Ü ì ê ë ë è ä ï í â à Ü íÔ � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 4 � � � 0 Ó � � � � � � � 0 � � � � 1 Í � � � � � $ R � � � " � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � Ô � � � � � � � � � / � � " � � � � � 0 � � � � � / � � � � � / � � � � � � "� � � � � 0 � � � / � � � � � � � � 0 $Ø � Ú Ø þ Ü ì Ü á í ê à ø à é Þ á ù ÿ ë Þ û â í ï è Ü ë ï â á � � � ø à é Þ á â í á ð Ü ü á í � ï ì â ú Ü âM � � ô � � � � � , 1 Ô � � � � � � � � � Z � � 0 �


Weekly Focus

Macroeconomic forecast

Source: OECD and Danske Bank. 1) % y/y. 2) % contribution to GDP growth. 3) % of labour force. 4) % of GDP.

Macro forecast, Scandinavia

Denmark 2016 1.0 1.8 1.3 3.9 -0.4 0.1 1.3 0.3 4.2 -1.7 38.0 7.42017 1.5 1.6 1.0 3.2 0.2 2.2 3.4 1.3 4.1 -1.3 37.2 7.32018 1.8 2.0 0.5 3.7 0.1 2.7 3.4 1.5 3.9 -0.7 36.2 7.3

Sweden 2016 3.3 2.1 3.5 6.5 0.2 3.1 4.3 1.0 7.0 -0.6 42.0 4.62017 1.7 1.5 2.0 1.9 -0.1 3.5 3.4 1.3 7.2 -0.7 41.8 4.52018 1.9 2.0 1.3 2.1 0.1 4.1 4.4 1.4 7.1 -0.5 40.7 4.5

Norway 2016 0.8 1.5 2.3 -0.3 0.2 -1.5 1.0 3.6 3.0 - - -2017 1.8 2.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1.3 1.9 2.2 3.0 - - -2018 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.5 0.0 1.3 2.3 2.1 3.0 - - -

Macro forecast, Euroland

Euroland 2016 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.6 - 2.3 2.8 0.2 10.0 -1.8 91.6 3.72017 1.5 1.1 1.2 2.4 - 3.0 2.9 1.6 9.4 -1.5 90.6 3.52018 1.5 1.0 1.1 3.6 - 3.6 4.0 1.2 8.9 -1.5 89.6 3.3

Germany 2016 1.8 1.7 4.3 2.0 - 2.2 3.1 0.4 4.2 0.6 68.1 9.02017 1.8 1.3 2.2 2.1 - 3.2 3.5 1.8 3.9 0.4 65.7 8.72018 1.9 1.4 1.9 4.1 - 4.0 4.8 1.5 3.8 0.3 63.1 8.5

France 2016 1.1 1.7 1.5 2.8 - 0.8 3.5 0.3 10.1 -3.3 96.4 -2.12017 1.0 0.8 1.2 2.1 - 2.8 3.6 1.2 10.0 -2.9 96.8 -2.32018 1.2 1.0 1.1 3.0 - 3.0 3.5 1.3 9.8 -3.1 97.4 -2.6

Italy 2016 0.9 1.4 0.6 2.0 - 1.3 1.7 -0.1 11.6 -2.4 133.0 2.82017 1.0 0.7 0.6 2.1 - 3.3 3.3 1.2 11.5 -2.4 133.1 2.52018 1.3 0.8 0.7 3.6 - 3.5 3.5 1.2 11.4 -2.5 133.1 2.1

Spain 2016 3.2 3.0 1.3 3.6 - 4.0 3.0 -0.3 19.7 -4.6 99.5 1.72017 2.3 2.1 1.4 2.9 - 2.6 2.1 1.8 18.3 -3.8 99.9 1.52018 2.3 2.0 1.3 4.7 - 3.6 4.6 1.1 17.1 -3.2 100.0 1.5

Finland 2016 1.6 2.2 0.2 3.0 - 0.8 1.5 0.4 8.8 -2.5 65.0 -0.72017 1.3 0.8 0.0 3.5 - 3.0 2.5 1.3 8.3 -2.4 66.5 -0.72018 1.3 1.0 0.2 2.5 - 3.5 3.0 1.5 8.0 -2.2 67.0 -0.7

Macro forecast, Global

USA 2016 1.6 2.6 0.8 0.4 -0.4 0.7 0.7 1.3 4.9 -2.6 105 -2.72017 2.2 2.2 0.6 2.8 0.1 3.2 2.3 2.4 4.7 -2.9 105 -2.92018 2.8 2.0 2.9 6.1 0.0 3.0 3.0 2.5 4.4 -2.8 103 -3.3

China 2016 6.7 - - - - - - 2.0 4.1 -3.0 46.3 2.42017 6.6 - - - - - - 2.0 4.3 -3.3 49.9 2.12018 6.3 - - - - - - 2.0 4.3 -3.0 53.3 1.5

UK 2016 2.0 2.8 0.8 0.9 0.5 1.0 2.7 0.7 4.9 -3.6 88.7 -5.02017 1.2 1.7 0.2 0.3 0.3 1.7 2.4 2.3 5.0 -2.9 89.2 -4.92018 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.7 0.0 2.8 2.0 2.6 5.3 -2.2 88.7 -3.3

Current

acc.4

GDP 1

Private

cons.1

Public

cons.1

Fixed

inv.1

Stock

build.2

Ex-

ports1

Im-

ports1

Infla-

tion1

Unem-

ploym.3

Public

budget4

Public

debt4

Year

Year GDP 1

Private

cons.1

Public

cons.1

Fixed

inv.1

Stock

build.2

Ex-

ports1

Im-

ports1

Infla-

tion1

Unem-

ploym.3

Public

budget4

Current

acc.4

Public

debt4

Current

acc.4

Im-

ports1

Public

debt4

Public

budget4

Ex-

ports1

Infla-

tion1

Unem-

ploym.3

Year GDP 1

Private

cons.1

Public

cons.1

Fixed

inv.1

Stock

build.2


Weekly Focus

Financial forecast


Bond and money markets

Currency

vs USD

Currency

vsSEK

USD 24-Feb - 898.2

+3m - 895.2

+6m - 861.1

+12m - 821.4

EUR 24-Feb 105.8 950.6

+3m 105.0 940.0

+6m 108.0 930.0

+12m 112.0 920.0

JPY 24-Feb 112.7 7.97

+3m 118.0 7.59

+6m 118.0 7.30

+12m 118.0 6.96

GBP 24-Feb 125.5 1126.7

+3m 120.7 1080.5

+6m 125.6 1081.4

+12m 130.2 1069.8

CHF 24-Feb 100.6 892.5

+3m 101.9 878.5

+6m 101.9 845.5

+12m 100.9 814.2

DKK 24-Feb 702.4 127.9

+3m 708.1 126.4

+6m 688.9 125.0

+12m 664.3 123.7

SEK 24-Feb 898.2 100.0

+3m 895.2 -

+6m 861.1 -

+12m 821.4 -

NOK 24-Feb 833.3 107.8

+3m 838.1 106.8

+6m 805.6 106.9

+12m 776.8 105.7

Equity markets

Regional

Pris trend

12 mdr.

Regionale rekommen-

dationer

USA (USD) � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 10-15% Overweight

Emerging markets (local ccy) � � � � � � � � � � ! " # � � $ � � � � � � � $ � � � � � � � � � � -5-+5% Underweight

Japan (JPY) % � � � � � � � � � $ � � � � � � � � � � � � 10-15% Overweight

Euro area (EUR) & � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � $ $ � � � ' � � � � � � � � � � � � 0-5% Underweight

UK (GBP) ( � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � ) � � � � � � � � � * � 5-10% Neutral

Nordics (local ccy) ( � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � $ $ � � � � $ � � � � $ 5-10% Neutral

Commodities

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2017 2018

NYMEX WTI 51 53 57 59 60 60 61 61 55 61

ICE Brent 53 55 57 59 60 60 61 61 56 61

Copper 5,850 5,900 5,950 6,000 6,025 6,050 6,075 6,100 5,925 6,063

Zinc 2,700 2,400 2,200 2,200 2,225 2,250 2,275 2,300 2,375 2,263

Nickel 10,500 11,000 11,400 11,500 11,600 11,700 11,800 11,900 11,100 11,750

Aluminium 1,770 1,760 1,770 1,780 1,790 1,800 1,810 1,820 1,770 1,805

Gold 1,150 1,100 1,140 1,160 1,170 1,180 1,190 1,200 1,138 1,185

Matif Mill Wheat 170 164 168 170 170 169 168 168 168 169

Rapeseed 430 440 440 430 425 425 425 425 435 425

CBOT Wheat 435 465 500 510 520 530 540 550 478 535

CBOT Soybeans 1,050 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,125 1,125 1,150 1,150 1,088 1,138

Key int.

rate3m interest rate 2-yr swap yield 10-yr swap yield

Currency

vs EUR

0.75 1.05 1.54 2.35 105.8

0.75 1.19 1.50 2.40 105.0

1.00 1.28 1.75 2.50 108.0

1.25 1.54 2.15 2.90 112.0

0.00 -0.33 -0.16 0.70 -

0.00 -0.35 -0.10 0.80 -

0.00 -0.35 -0.10 1.00 -

0.00 -0.35 0.00 1.30 -

-0.10 -0.03 0.04 0.26 119.3

-0.10 - - - 123.9

-0.10 - - - 127.4

-0.10 - - - 132.2

0.25 0.35 0.59 1.21 84.4

0.25 0.35 0.60 1.30 87.0

0.25 0.35 0.60 1.55 86.0

0.25 0.36 0.60 1.85 86.0

-0.75 -0.73 -0.72 0.06 106.5

-0.75 - - - 107.0

-0.75 - - - 110.0

-0.75 - - - 113.0

0.05 -0.25 -0.01 0.95 743.4

0.05 -0.20 0.10 1.05 743.5

0.05 -0.20 0.10 1.25 744.0

0.05 -0.20 0.20 1.55 744.0

-0.50 -0.49 -0.32 1.08 950.6

-0.50 -0.50 -0.40 1.25 940.0

-0.50 -0.50 -0.40 1.30 930.0

-0.50 -0.50 -0.20 1.60 920.0

0.50 1.06 1.28 1.93 881.9

0.50 1.00 1.30 2.05 880.0

0.50 1.00 1.35 2.25 870.0

0.50 1.00 1.60 2.55 870.0

Risiko profil

3 mdr.

Pris trend

3 mdr.

2017 2018 Average

24-Feb

1,254

172

437

1,015

54

56

5,859

2,790

10,580

1,867

413

Medium 3-8%

Medium 5 -10%

-5 -0%

Medium 5 -10%

Medium 0 -5%

Medium 3 -8%

Medium


Weekly Focus

Calendar


Key Data and Events in Week 9

During the week Period Danske Bank Consensus Previous

Monday, February 27, 2017 Period Danske Bank Consensus Previous

- GBP House of Lords debate Article 50 bill (until Wednesday)

8:00 NOK Wage index manufacturing q/q 4th quarter 0.9%

9:00 ESP HICP, preliminary m/m|y/y Feb …|3.3% -0.2%|3.1% -1.0%|2.9%

9:00 DKK Confidence indicator, industry, s.a. Net balance Feb -4

9:30 SEK Household lending y/y Jan 7.2%

10:00 EUR Money supply (M3) y/y Jan 5.0% 4.9% 5.0%

10:00 EUR Loans to households (adj. for sales and sec.) % Jan

10:00 EUR Loans to NFCs (adj. for sales and sec.) % Jan

11:00 EUR Service confidence Net bal. Feb 13.3 12.9

11:00 EUR Business climate indicator Net bal. Feb 0.8 0.8

11:00 EUR Industrial confidence Net bal. Feb 1.0 0.8

11:00 EUR Economic confidence Index Feb 108.0 107.9

11:00 EUR Consumer confidence Net bal. Feb -6.2 -6.2

14:30 USD Core capital goods orders, preliminary % Jan 0.6% 0.7%

16:00 USD Pending home sales m/m|y/y Jan 0.9%|... 1.6%|-2.0%

17:00 USD Fed's Kaplan (voter, dovish) speaks

Tuesday, February 28, 2017 Period Danske Bank Consensus Previous

- USD Donald Trump speaks to joint session of Congress

- GBP House of Lords debate Article 50 bill

0:50 JPY Industrial production, preliminary m/m|y/y Jan 0.4%|4.4% 0.7%|3.2%

0:50 JPY Retail trade m/m|y/y Jan 0.3%|1.0% -1.6%|0.7%

1:01 GBP GfK consumer confidence Index Feb -6.0 -6.0 -5.0

8:00 NOK Credit indicator (C2) y/y Jan 4.8%

8:45 FRF Household consumption m/m|y/y Jan 0.7%|1.7% -0.8%|1.5%

8:45 FRF HICP, preliminary m/m|y/y Feb …|1.7% 0.4%|1.8% -0.3%|1.6%

8:45 FRF GDP, preliminary q/q|y/y 4th quarter 0.4%|… 0.4%|1.1% 0.4%|1.1%

9:00 CHF KOF leading indicator Index Feb 102.0 101.7

9:00 DKK GDP, preliminary q/q|y/y 4th quarter 0.4% 0.4%|… 0.4%|...

9:00 DKK CB's securities statistics Jan

9:00 DKK Foriegn portfolio investments Jan

9:30 SEK Retail sales s.a. m/m|y/y Jan 1.0%|1.4% 1.4%|2.3% -2.9%|0.6%

9:30 SEK GDP q/q|y/y 4th quarter 0.6%|2.0% 0.8%|2.3% 0.5%|2.8%

9:30 SEK PPI m/m|y/y Jan 2.1%|6.5%

9:30 SEK Wages (blue collars/white collars) y/y Dec 2.2%

9:30 SEK Trade balance SEK bn Jan 2.5 1

10:00 NOK Norges Bank's daily FX purchases m Mar -1000 -1000

11:00 EUR HICP - core inflation, preliminary y/y Feb 0.9% 0.9% 0.9%

11:00 EUR HICP inflation, preliminary y/y Feb 1.9% 1.9% 1.8%

11:00 ITL HICP, preliminary m/m|y/y Feb …|1.5% -0.2%|1.3% -1.7%|1.0%

14:00 HUF Central Bank of Hungary rate decision % 0.90% 0.90% 0.90%

14:30 USD PCE core q/q AR 4th quarter 0.013

14:30 USD Advance goods trade balance USD bn Jan -66.0 -64.4

14:30 USD GDP, second release q/q AR 4th quarter 2.1% 1.9%

15:45 USD Chicago PMI Index Feb 53.0 50.3

16:00 USD Conference Board consumer confidence Index Feb 110.9 111.0 111.8

21:30 USD Fed's Williams (non-voter, neutral) speaks


Weekly Focus

Calendar — continued


Wednesday, March 1, 2017 Period Danske Bank Consensus Previous

- USD Total vechicle sales m Feb 17.6 17.48

- GBP House of Lords debate Article 50 bill

0:50 USD Fed's Bullard (non-voter, dove) speaks

1:30 AUD GDP q/q|y/y 4th quarter 0.7%|1.9% -0.5%|1.8%

1:30 JPY Nikkei Manufacturing PMI Index Feb 53.5

2:00 CNY PMI manufacturing Index Feb 51.2 51.3

2:00 CNY PMI non-manufacturing Index Feb 54.6

2:45 CNY Caixin PMI manufacturing Index Feb 50.8 51.0

3:00 USD Donald Trump speaks to joint session of Congress

8:30 SEK PMI manufacturing Index Feb 62.0

9:00 NOK PMI manufacturing Index Feb 51.8 51.4

9:15 ESP PMI manufacturing Index Feb 55.8 55.6

9:30 SEK Riksbank publishes minutes from Feb. Meeting

9:45 ITL PMI manufacturing Index Feb 53.0

9:50 FRF PMI manufacturing, final Index Feb 52.3 52.3

9:55 DEM PMI manufacturing, final Index Feb 57.0 57.0

9:55 DEM Unemployment % Feb 5.9% 5.9%

10:00 EUR PMI manufacturing, final Index Feb 55.5 55.5

10:30 GBP PMI manufacturing Index Feb 55.5 55.6 55.9

10:30 GBP Mortgage approvals 1000 Jan 68.5 67.9

10:30 GBP Broad money M4 m/m|y/y Jan -0.5%|6.2%

12:00 EUR Portugal, GDP, final q/q|y/y 4th quarter 0.6%|1.9%

14:00 DEM HICP, preliminary m/m|y/y Feb …|2.1% 0.6%|2.1% -0.8%|1.9%

14:30 USD Personal spending m/m Jan 0.3% 0.5%

14:30 USD PCE headline m/m|y/y Jan 0.5%|2.0% 0.2%|1.6%

14:30 USD PCE core m/m|y/y Jan 0.25%|1.7% 0.3%|1.8% 0.1%|1.7%

15:30 CAD RBC manufacturing PMI Index Feb 53.5

15:45 USD Markit PMI manufacturing Index Feb 54.3

16:00 USD Construction spending m/m Jan 0.7% -0.2%

16:00 USD ISM manufacturing Index Feb 56.0 56.0

16:00 CAD Bank of Canada rate decision % 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%

16:30 USD DOE U.S. crude oil inventories K

19:00 USD Fed's Kaplan (voter, dovish) speaks

Thursday, March 2, 2017 Period Danske Bank Consensus Previous

7:45 CHF GDP q/q|y/y 4th quarter 0.4%|1.3% 0.0%|1.3%

8:00 NOK Retail sales, s.a. m/m Jan 1.1% -2.1%

9:00 ESP GDP, final q/q|y/y 4th quarter 0.7%|3.0% 0.7%|3.0%

9:30 SEK Current account SEK bn 4th quarter 56.7

10:30 GBP PMI construction Index Feb 52.0 52.2

11:00 EUR PPI m/m|y/y Jan 3.2%|0.4% 1.6%|0.7%

11:00 EUR Unemployment % Jan 9.5% 9.6% 9.6%

14:30 USD Initial jobless claims 1000 244

14:30 CAD GDP m/m|y/y Dec 0.3%|… 0.4%|1.6%

16:00 DKK Currency reserves DKK bn Feb 458.0 457.8


Weekly Focus

Calendar — continued


Friday, March 3, 2017 Period Danske Bank Consensus Previous

- EUR Fitch may publish France's debt rating

- EUR Fitch may publish Malta's debt rating

- EUR Moody's may publish Belgium's debt rating

0:30 JPY CPI - national ex. fresh food y/y Jan 0.0% -0.2%

0:30 JPY Unemployment rate % Jan 3.0% 3.1%

0:30 JPY Job-to-applicant ratio Jan 1.44 1.43

0:30 JPY CPI - national y/y Jan 0.4% 0.3%

1:00 USD Fed's Mester (non-voter, hawkish) speaks

1:30 JPY Markit PMI services Index Feb 51.9

2:45 CNY Caixin PMI service Index Feb 53.1

6:00 JPY Consumer confidence Index Feb 43.5 43.2

8:00 DEM Retail sales m/m|y/y Jan -0.1%|… 0.0%|-1.1%

8:30 SEK PMI services Index Feb 61.1

9:00 DKK Gross unemployment s.a. K (%) Jan 4.3% 4.3% 115 (4.3%)

9:15 ESP PMI services Index Feb 55.0 54.2

9:30 SEK Industrial production s.a. m/m|y/y Jan 2.1%|1.5% -1.8%|-0.9%

9:30 SEK Service production m/m|y/y Jan 1.2%|4.1%

9:30 SEK Industrial orders m/m|y/y Jan -0.5%|4.7%

9:45 ITL PMI services Index Feb 52.4

9:50 FRF PMI services, final Index Feb 56.7 56.7

9:55 DEM PMI services, final Index Feb 54.4 54.4

10:00 ITL GDP, final q/q|y/y 4th quarter 0.2%|… 1.1%|… 0.2%|1.1%

10:00 NOK Unemployment % Feb 3.1% 3.2%

10:00 EUR PMI composite, final Index Feb 56.0 56.0

10:00 EUR PMI services, final Index Feb 55.6 55.6

10:30 GBP PMI services Index Feb 54.2 54.5

11:00 EUR Retail sales m/m|y/y Jan 0.5%|… 0.2%|… -0.3%|1.1%

11:00 NOK Housing prices Feb

15:45 USD Markit PMI service Index Feb 53.9

16:00 USD ISM non-manufacturing Index Feb 56.5 56.5

16:15 USD Fed's Lacker (non-voter, hawkish) speaks

16:15 USD Fed's Evans (voter, dovish) speaks

18:00 USD Fed's S.Fischer (voter, neutral) speaks

19:00 USD Fed Chair Yellen (dovish) speaks

The editors do not guarantee the accurateness of figures, hours or dates stated above

For furher information, call (+45 ) 45 12 85 22.


Weekly Focus

Disclosures + , - . / 0 . 0 1 / 2 , / 0 3 4 / 5 , 1 . 6 0 0 7 3 / 0 3 1 / 0 8 6 9 : 1 7 . ; 0 < 1 7 ; = 1 / ; 0 5 . > 1 8 - ? - . - 4 7 4 @ : 1 7 . ; 0 < 1 7 ; A B C D E : 1 7 . ; 0 < 1 7 ; F G H+ , 0 1 I 5 , 4 / 4 @ 5 , 0 / 0 . 0 1 / 2 , / 0 3 4 / 5 - . = 4 / 5 0 7 J 0 K 5 > C 0 7 - 4 / A 7 1 K 9 . 5 HAnalyst certification L 1 2 , / 0 . 0 1 / 2 , 1 7 1 K 9 . 5 / 0 . 3 4 7 . - 6 K 0 @ 4 / 5 , 0 2 4 7 5 0 7 5 4 @ 5 , - . / 0 . 0 1 / 2 , / 0 3 4 / 5 2 0 / 5 - @ - 0 . 5 , 1 5 5 , 0 ? - 0 M . 0 N 3 / 0 . . 0 8 - 7 5 , 0O P Q P R O S T O P U V O W R S S X O R W P Y Z O P [ Y P S W W T P O P Q P R O S T R \ R Y Z Q W F Q U P O Q V \ R Y ] ^ P _ R ` V X W W T P [ ^ \ R \ S ^ R Y ^ \ Q W O X a P \ W Q R \ b ^ Q Q X P O Q2 4 ? 0 / 0 8 6 9 5 , 0 / 0 . 0 1 / 2 , / 0 3 4 / 5 H L 1 2 , / 0 . 3 4 7 . - 6 K 0 / 0 . 0 1 / 2 , 1 7 1 K 9 . 5 @ I / 5 , 0 / 2 0 / 5 - @ - 0 . 5 , 1 5 7 4 3 1 / 5 4 @ 5 , 0 2 4 c 3 0 7 . 1 5 - 4 74 @ 5 , 0 / 0 . 0 1 / 2 , 1 7 1 K 9 . 5 M 1 . > - . 4 / M - K K 6 0 > 8 - / 0 2 5 K 9 4 / - 7 8 - / 0 2 5 K 9 > / 0 K 1 5 0 8 5 4 5 , 0 . 3 0 2 - @ - 2 / 0 2 4 c c 0 7 8 1 5 - 4 7 . 0 N 3 / 0 . . 0 8- 7 5 , 0 / 0 . 0 1 / 2 , / 0 3 4 / 5 HRegulation : 1 7 . ; 0 < 1 7 ; - . 1 I 5 , 4 / - . 0 8 1 7 8 . I 6 d 0 2 5 5 4 / 0 e I K 1 5 - 4 7 6 9 5 , 0 : 1 7 - . , f - 7 1 7 2 - 1 K C I 3 0 / ? - . 4 / 9 A I 5 , 4 / - 5 9 1 7 8 - . . I 6 d 0 2 55 4 5 , 0 / I K 0 . 1 7 8 / 0 e I K 1 5 - 4 7 4 @ 5 , 0 / 0 K 0 ? 1 7 5 / 0 e I K 1 5 4 / . - 7 1 K K 4 5 , 0 / d I / - . 8 - 2 5 - 4 7 . M , 0 / 0 - 5 2 4 7 8 I 2 5 . 6 I . - 7 0 . . H : 1 7 . ; 0< 1 7 ; - . . I 6 d 0 2 5 5 4 K - c - 5 0 8 / 0 e I K 1 5 - 4 7 6 9 5 , 0 f - 7 1 7 2 - 1 K g 4 7 8 I 2 5 A I 5 , 4 / - 5 9 1 7 8 5 , 0 h / I 8 0 7 5 - 1 K i 0 e I K 1 5 - 4 7 A I 5 , 4 / - 5 9D j k G H : 0 5 1 - K . 4 7 5 , 0 0 N 5 0 7 5 4 @ 5 , 0 / 0 e I K 1 5 - 4 7 6 9 5 , 0 f - 7 1 7 2 - 1 K g 4 7 8 I 2 5 A I 5 , 4 / - 5 9 1 7 8 5 , 0 h / I 8 0 7 5 - 1 K i 0 e I K 1 5 - 4 7A I 5 , 4 / - 5 9 1 / 0 1 ? 1 - K 1 6 K 0 @ / 4 c : 1 7 . ; 0 < 1 7 ; 4 7 / 0 l I 0 . 5 H+ , 0 / 0 . 0 1 / 2 , / 0 3 4 / 5 . 4 @ : 1 7 . ; 0 < 1 7 ; 1 / 0 3 / 0 3 1 / 0 8 - 7 1 2 2 4 / 8 1 7 2 0 M - 5 , 5 , 0 / 0 2 4 c c 0 7 8 1 5 - 4 7 . 4 @ 5 , 0 : 1 7 - . , C 0 2 I / - 5 - 0 .: 0 1 K 0 / . A . . 4 2 - 1 5 - 4 7 HConflicts of interest : 1 7 . ; 0 < 1 7 ; , 1 . 0 . 5 1 6 K - . , 0 8 3 / 4 2 0 8 I / 0 . 5 4 3 / 0 ? 0 7 5 2 4 7 @ K - 2 5 . 4 @ - 7 5 0 / 0 . 5 1 7 8 5 4 0 7 . I / 0 5 , 0 3 / 4 ? - . - 4 7 4 @ , - e , m l I 1 K - 5 9/ 0 . 0 1 / 2 , 6 1 . 0 8 4 7 / 0 . 0 1 / 2 , 4 6 d 0 2 5 - ? - 5 9 1 7 8 - 7 8 0 3 0 7 8 0 7 2 0 H + , 0 . 0 3 / 4 2 0 8 I / 0 . 1 / 0 8 4 2 I c 0 7 5 0 8 - 7 : 1 7 . ; 0 n R \ o F QO P Q P R O S T U V Y ^ S ^ P Q p q a U Y V Z P P Q _ ^ W T ^ \ r R \ Q o P n R \ o F Q s P Q P R O S T r P U R O W a P \ W Q T R ] P ` P P \ ^ \ Q W O X S W P b W T R W R \ Z O P t X P Q W5 , 1 5 c - e , 5 - c 3 1 - / 5 , 0 4 6 d 0 2 5 - ? - 5 9 1 7 8 - 7 8 0 3 0 7 8 0 7 2 0 4 @ / 0 . 0 1 / 2 , . , 1 K K 6 0 / 0 @ 0 / / 0 8 5 4 i 0 . 0 1 / 2 , = 1 7 1 e 0 c 0 7 5 1 7 8 5 , 0g 4 c 3 K - 1 7 2 0 : 0 3 1 / 5 c 0 7 5 H : 1 7 . o P n R \ o F Q s P Q P R O S T r P U R O W a P \ W Q R O P V O u R \ ^ Q P b ^ \ b P U P \ b P \ W Y Z [ O V a R \ b b V \ V W O P U V O W5 4 4 5 , 0 / 6 I . - 7 0 . . 1 / 0 1 . M - 5 , - 7 : 1 7 . ; 0 < 1 7 ; Hi 0 . 0 1 / 2 , 1 7 1 K 9 . 5 . 1 / 0 / 0 c I 7 0 / 1 5 0 8 - 7 3 1 / 5 6 1 . 0 8 4 7 5 , 0 4 ? 0 / 1 K K 3 / 4 @ - 5 1 6 - K - 5 9 4 @ : 1 7 . ; 0 < 1 7 ; > M , - 2 , - 7 2 K I 8 0 .- 7 ? 0 . 5 c 0 7 5 6 1 7 ; - 7 e / 0 ? 0 7 I 0 . > 6 I 5 8 4 7 4 5 / 0 2 0 - ? 0 6 4 7 I . 0 . 4 / 4 5 , 0 / / 0 c I 7 0 / 1 5 - 4 7 K - 7 ; 0 8 5 4 . 3 0 2 - @ - 2 2 4 / 3 4 / 1 5 0 @ - 7 1 7 2 04 / 8 0 6 5 2 1 3 - 5 1 K 5 / 1 7 . 1 2 5 - 4 7 . HFinancial models and/or methodology used in this research report g 1 K 2 I K 1 5 - 4 7 . 1 7 8 3 / 0 . 0 7 5 1 5 - 4 7 . - 7 5 , - . / 0 . 0 1 / 2 , / 0 3 4 / 5 1 / 0 6 1 . 0 8 4 7 . 5 1 7 8 1 / 8 0 2 4 7 4 c 0 5 / - 2 5 4 4 K . 1 7 8 c 0 5 , 4 8 4 K 4 e 9 1 .M 0 K K 1 . 3 I 6 K - 2 K 9 1 ? 1 - K 1 6 K 0 . 5 1 5 - . 5 - 2 . @ 4 / 0 1 2 , - 7 8 - ? - 8 I 1 K . 0 2 I / - 5 9 > - . . I 0 / 1 7 8 B 4 / 2 4 I 7 5 / 9 H : 4 2 I c 0 7 5 1 5 - 4 7 2 1 7 6 04 6 5 1 - 7 0 8 @ / 4 c 5 , 0 1 I 5 , 4 / . 4 7 / 0 l I 0 . 5 HRisk warning = 1 d 4 / / - . ; . 2 4 7 7 0 2 5 0 8 M - 5 , / 0 2 4 c c 0 7 8 1 5 - 4 7 . 4 / 4 3 - 7 - 4 7 . - 7 5 , - . / 0 . 0 1 / 2 , / 0 3 4 / 5 > - 7 2 K I 8 - 7 e 1 . 0 7 . - 5 - ? - 5 9 1 7 1 K 9 . - . 4 @/ 0 K 0 ? 1 7 5 1 . . I c 3 5 - 4 7 . > 1 / 0 . 5 1 5 0 8 5 , / 4 I e , 4 I 5 5 , 0 5 0 N 5 HExpected updates v 4 7 0 HDate of first publication C 0 0 5 , 0 @ / 4 7 5 3 1 e 0 4 @ 5 , - . / 0 . 0 1 / 2 , / 0 3 4 / 5 @ 4 / 5 , 0 8 1 5 0 4 @ @ - / . 5 3 I 6 K - 2 1 5 - 4 7 HGeneral disclaimer + , - . / 0 . 0 1 / 2 , , 1 . 6 0 0 7 3 / 0 3 1 / 0 8 6 9 : 1 7 . ; 0 < 1 7 ; = 1 / ; 0 5 . D 1 8 - ? - . - 4 7 4 @ : 1 7 . ; 0 < 1 7 ; A B C G H w 5 - . 3 / 4 ? - 8 0 8 @ 4 /- 7 @ 4 / c 1 5 - 4 7 1 K 3 I / 3 4 . 0 . 4 7 K 9 H w 5 8 4 0 . 7 4 5 2 4 7 . 5 - 5 I 5 0 4 / @ 4 / c 3 1 / 5 4 @ > 1 7 8 . , 1 K K I 7 8 0 / 7 4 2 - / 2 I c . 5 1 7 2 0 . 6 0 2 4 7 . - 8 0 / 0 81 . > 1 7 4 @ @ 0 / 5 4 . 0 K K 4 / 1 . 4 K - 2 - 5 1 5 - 4 7 4 @ 1 7 4 @ @ 0 / 5 4 3 I / 2 , 1 . 0 4 / . 0 K K 1 7 9 / 0 K 0 ? 1 7 5 @ - 7 1 7 2 - 1 K - 7 . 5 / I c 0 7 5 . D - H 0 H @ - 7 1 7 2 - 1 K- 7 . 5 / I c 0 7 5 . c 0 7 5 - 4 7 0 8 , 0 / 0 - 7 4 / 4 5 , 0 / @ - 7 1 7 2 - 1 K - 7 . 5 / I c 0 7 5 . 4 @ 1 7 9 - . . I 0 / c 0 7 5 - 4 7 0 8 , 0 / 0 - 7 1 7 8 B 4 / 4 3 5 - 4 7 . >M 1 / / 1 7 5 . > / - e , 5 . 4 / 4 5 , 0 / - 7 5 0 / 0 . 5 . M - 5 , / 0 . 3 0 2 W W V R \ Z Q X S T [ ^ \ R \ S ^ R Y ^ \ Q W O X a P \ W Q x y E s P Y P ] R \ W z ^ \ R \ S ^ R Y { \ Q W O X a P \ W Q F x p+ , 0 / 0 . 0 1 / 2 , / 0 3 4 / 5 , 1 . 6 0 0 7 3 / 0 3 1 / 0 8 - 7 8 0 3 0 7 8 0 7 5 K 9 1 7 8 . 4 K 0 K 9 4 7 5 , 0 6 1 . - . 4 @ 3 I 6 K - 2 K 9 1 ? 1 - K 1 6 K 0 - 7 @ 4 / c 1 5 - 4 7 5 , 1 5: 1 7 . ; 0 < 1 7 ; 2 4 7 . - 8 0 / . 5 4 6 0 / 0 K - 1 6 K 0 H | , - K 0 / 0 1 . 4 7 1 6 K 0 2 1 / 0 , 1 . 6 0 0 7 5 1 ; 0 7 5 4 0 7 . I / 0 5 , 1 5 - 5 . 2 4 7 5 0 7 5 . 1 / 0 7 4 5 I 7 5 / I 04 / c - . K 0 1 8 - 7 e > 7 4 / 0 3 / 0 . 0 7 5 1 5 - 4 7 - . c 1 8 0 1 . 5 4 - 5 . 1 2 2 I / 1 2 9 4 / 2 4 c 3 K 0 5 0 7 0 . . 1 7 8 : 1 7 . ; 0 < 1 7 ; > - 5 . 1 @ @ - K - 1 5 0 . 1 7 8. I 6 . - 8 - 1 / - 0 . 1 2 2 0 3 5 7 4 K - 1 6 - K - 5 9 M , 1 5 . 4 0 ? 0 / @ 4 / 1 7 9 8 - / 0 2 5 4 / 2 4 7 . 0 l I 0 7 5 - 1 K K 4 . . > - 7 2 K I 8 - 7 e M - 5 , 4 I 5 K - c - 5 1 5 - 4 7 1 7 9K 4 . . 4 @ 3 / 4 @ - 5 . > 1 / - . - 7 e @ / 4 c / 0 K - 1 7 2 0 4 7 5 , - . / 0 . 0 1 / 2 , / 0 3 4 / 5 H+ , 0 4 3 - 7 - 4 7 . 0 N 3 / 0 . . 0 8 , 0 / 0 - 7 1 / 0 5 , 0 4 3 - 7 - 4 7 . 4 @ 5 , 0 / 0 . 0 1 / 2 , 1 7 1 K 9 . 5 . / 0 . 3 4 7 . - 6 K 0 @ 4 / 5 , 0 / 0 . 0 1 / 2 , / 0 3 4 / 5 1 7 8/ 0 @ K 0 2 5 5 , 0 - / d I 8 e 0 c 0 7 5 1 . 4 @ 5 , 0 8 1 5 0 , 0 / 0 4 @ H + , 0 . 0 4 3 - 7 - 4 7 . 1 / 0 . I 6 d 0 2 5 5 4 2 , 1 7 e 0 > 1 7 8 : 1 7 . ; 0 < 1 7 ; 8 4 0 . 7 4 5I 7 8 0 / 5 1 ; 0 5 4 7 4 5 - @ 9 1 7 9 / 0 2 - 3 - 0 7 5 4 @ 5 , - . / 0 . 0 1 / 2 , / 0 3 4 / 5 4 @ 1 7 9 . I 2 , 2 , 1 7 e 0 7 4 / 4 @ 1 7 9 4 5 , 0 / 2 , 1 7 e 0 . / 0 K 1 5 0 8 5 4 5 , 0- 7 @ 4 / c 1 5 - 4 7 3 / 4 ? - 8 0 8 - 7 5 , - . / 0 . 0 1 / 2 , / 0 3 4 / 5 H+ , - . / 0 . 0 1 / 2 , / 0 3 4 / 5 - . 7 4 5 - 7 5 0 7 8 0 8 @ 4 / > 1 7 8 c 1 9 7 4 5 6 0 / 0 8 - . 5 / - 6 I 5 0 8 5 4 > / 0 5 1 - K 2 I . 5 4 c 0 / . - 7 5 , 0 j 7 - 5 0 8 k - 7 e 8 4 c 4 /5 , 0 j 7 - 5 0 8 C 5 1 5 0 . H+ , - . / 0 . 0 1 / 2 , / 0 3 4 / 5 - . 3 / 4 5 0 2 5 0 8 6 9 2 4 3 9 / - e , 5 1 7 8 - . - 7 5 0 7 8 0 8 . 4 K 0 K 9 @ 4 / 5 , 0 8 0 . - e 7 1 5 0 8 1 8 8 / 0 . . 0 0 H w 5 c 1 9 7 4 5 6 0/ 0 3 / 4 8 I 2 0 8 4 / 8 - . 5 / - 6 I 5 0 8 > - 7 M , 4 K 0 4 / - 7 3 1 / 5 > ` Z R \ Z O P S ^ U ^ P \ W [ V O R \ Z U X O U V Q P _ ^ W T V X W r R \ Q o P n R \ o F Q U O ^ V O _ O ^ W W P \2 4 7 . 0 7 5 H


Weekly Focus

Disclaimer related to distribution in the United States + , - . / 0 . 0 1 / 2 , / 0 3 4 / 5 M 1 . 2 / 0 1 5 0 8 6 9 : 1 7 . ; 0 < 1 7 ; A B C 1 7 8 - . 8 - . 5 / - 6 I 5 0 8 - 7 5 , 0 j 7 - 5 0 8 C 5 1 5 0 . 6 9 : 1 7 . ; 0 = 1 / ; 0 5 .w 7 2 H > 1 j H C H / 0 e - . 5 0 / 0 8 6 / 4 ; 0 / m 8 0 1 K 0 / 1 7 8 . I 6 . - 8 - 1 / 9 4 @ : 1 7 . ; 0 < 1 7 ; A B C > 3 I / . I 1 7 5 5 4 C L g i I K 0 } ~ 1 m � 1 7 8 / 0 K 1 5 0 8- 7 5 0 / 3 / 0 5 1 5 - 4 7 . - . . I 0 8 6 9 5 , 0 j H C H C 0 2 I / - 5 - 0 . 1 7 8 L N 2 , 1 7 e 0 g 4 c c - . . - 4 7 H + , 0 / 0 . 0 1 / 2 , / 0 3 4 / 5 - . - 7 5 0 7 8 0 8 @ 4 /b ^ Q W O ^ ` X W ^ V \ ^ \ W T P � \ ^ W P b � W R W P Q Q V Y P Y Z W V E � p � p ^ \ Q W ^ W X W ^ V \ R Y ^ \ ] P Q W V O Q F R Q b P [ ^ \ P b ^ \ � q � s X Y P � � R m � H : 1 7 . ; 0= 1 / ; 0 5 . w 7 2 H 1 2 2 0 3 5 . / 0 . 3 4 7 . - 6 - K - 5 9 @ 4 / 5 , - . / 0 . 0 1 / 2 , / 0 3 4 / 5 - 7 2 4 7 7 0 2 5 - 4 7 M - 5 , 8 - . 5 / - 6 I 5 - 4 7 - 7 5 , 0 j 7 - 5 0 8 C 5 1 5 0 . . 4 K 0 K 9W V E � p � p ^ \ Q W ^ W X W ^ V \ R Y ^ \ ] P Q W V O Q F p: 1 7 . ; 0 < 1 7 ; - . 7 4 5 . I 6 d 0 2 5 5 4 j H C H / I K 0 . M - 5 , / 0 e 1 / 8 5 4 5 , 0 3 / 0 3 1 / 1 5 - 4 7 4 @ / 0 . 0 1 / 2 , / 0 3 4 / 5 . 1 7 8 5 , 0 - 7 8 0 3 0 7 8 0 7 2 0 4 @/ 0 . 0 1 / 2 , 1 7 1 K 9 . 5 . H w 7 1 8 8 - 5 - 4 7 > 5 , 0 / 0 . 0 1 / 2 , 1 7 1 K 9 . 5 . 4 @ : 1 7 . ; 0 < 1 7 ; M , 4 , 1 ? 0 3 / 0 3 1 / 0 8 5 , - . / 0 . 0 1 / 2 , / 0 3 4 / 5 1 / 0 7 4 5/ 0 e - . 5 0 / 0 8 4 / l I 1 K - @ - 0 8 1 . / 0 . 0 1 / 2 , 1 7 1 K 9 . 5 . M - 5 , 5 , 0 v � C L 4 / f w v i A 6 I 5 . 1 5 - . @ 9 5 , 0 1 3 3 K - 2 1 6 K 0 / 0 l I - / 0 c 0 7 5 . 4 @ 17 4 7 m j H C H d I / - . 8 - 2 5 - 4 7 HA 7 9 j H C H - 7 ? 0 . 5 4 / / 0 2 - 3 - 0 7 5 4 @ 5 , - . / 0 . 0 1 / 2 , / 0 3 4 / 5 M , 4 M - . , 0 . 5 4 3 I / 2 , 1 . 0 4 / . 0 K K 1 7 9 i 0 K 0 ? 1 7 5 f - 7 1 7 2 - 1 K w 7 . 5 / I c 0 7 5c 1 9 8 4 . 4 4 7 K 9 6 9 2 4 7 5 1 2 5 - 7 e : 1 7 . ; 0 = 1 / ; 0 5 . w 7 2 H 8 - / 0 2 5 K 9 1 7 8 . , 4 I K 8 6 0 1 M 1 / 0 5 , 1 5 - 7 ? 0 . 5 - 7 e - 7 7 4 7 m j H C H @ - 7 1 7 2 - 1 K- 7 . 5 / I c 0 7 5 . c 1 9 0 7 5 1 - K 2 0 / 5 1 - 7 / - . ; . H f - 7 1 7 2 - 1 K - 7 . 5 / I c 0 7 5 . 4 @ 7 4 7 m j H C H - . . I 0 / . c 1 9 7 4 5 6 0 / 0 e - . 5 0 / 0 8 M - 5 , 5 , 0 j H C HC 0 2 I / - 5 - 0 . 1 7 8 L N 2 , 1 7 e 0 g 4 c c - . . - 4 7 1 7 8 c 1 9 7 4 5 6 0 . I 6 d 0 2 5 5 4 5 , 0 / 0 3 4 / 5 - 7 e 1 7 8 1 I 8 - 5 - 7 e . 5 1 7 8 1 / 8 . 4 @ 5 , 0 j H C HC 0 2 I / - 5 - 0 . 1 7 8 L N 2 , 1 7 e 0 g 4 c c - . . - 4 7 H

Documents

Investment Research General Market Conditions Weekly ...... Investment Research — General Market Conditions Market movers ahead · ! " # $ % & ' * +,-. / 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9:;